Justa's Dive Bar

[Jerry Olson]

i would sit on that C...nice breakout play

[chainik]

It is at 17+ in the premarket. Time to buy was at 10+...
I won't wait for a double, will sell today.

I'll also sell some QLD and will look for an opportunity to short.

[Jerry Olson]

C:

RSX on a break of 16.50 load the boat...

NOV looks good and so does CTSH

[Lone Ranger]

c,

"What do you think?"

I'm thinking 875 before 750. I'm looking to foolishly buy near 750. :)

[chainik]

Was traveling; don't have a good feel for the markets, have to catch up. A few of my sell orders were hit. Didn't expect too see RSX >16 so quickly. I'll try to buy it back again below 15.

What do you think?

[Lone Ranger]

c,

875 befor 750 or not? :) speaking of sp500 tia

[chainik]

I meant "the worst is over, the train is leaving the station" bs with SPX around 1000 and signs of distribution. So far, the rise was rather cautious; a lot of "short at will" mentality. Other than silly CBOE EPC and total P/C, there are few signs of outright euphoria - but P/Cs have been very strange lately and IMO should be disregarded.

The risks are clearly increasing, though. I hope to sell a bunch of QLD in 30-36 range. My biggest mistake was buying and holding this POS.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

"Sooner or later, we will get panic buying " looks like we have it.

[chainik]

Sooner or later, we will get panic buying (3 of C or whatever EW folks call it). Maybe during this leg up, maybe later - who knows. I won't chase :)

Cute point for optimists:
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/03/average-hourly-performance-of-the-financial-sector.html

[Lone Ranger]

c,

" no easy entry points" you ain't lyin ! :), so typical of a beautiful bottom, most don't believe it and then it doesn't allow easy entry without chasing, it's almost like they're reading the public like the palm of their hand

[chainik]

I hope to see RSX below 14. Won't touch EWZ, too much good news :)

Commodities might be a theme for the next few months. I'll stick to nat gas.

[Jerry Olson]

C:

watch the breakout on RSX at 17.00 also EWZ looks good too

seems OIL and all commodities are rallying up off the floor

could be a nice swing trade for both...

[chainik]

I also tried a small short today (QID), but was stopped out quickly. Sold some RSX, EWT, and natural gas stocks. Will try to buy back, the long side still looks better IMO - although the risks are certainly increasing as the market goes higher.

The big decision will have to be made once S&P gets to 900, assuming we ever get there :). Hold, sell, short?

[Lone Ranger]

c,

good points, i was gone all day today unable to follow the market, maybe tomorrow i'll be able to let go of that bad SDS position i started a couple days ago,
it seems never should one hold shorts over the weekend as too much time allows for good things to happen , at any rate my holding accounts did very well today

[chainik]

IMO Hussman got it totally wrong. Looking outside of US (eg RSX or EWT), this is a stellar advance with no easy entry points. Both "investment" and "speculative" merits are there. There will be "fast and furious" pullbacks to clear overbought conditions, but the trend is up.



<The advance of the past couple of weeks has been very characteristic of the “fast, furious, prone-to-failure” advances that tend to clear oversold conditions. Unfortunately, these advances are hardly predictable, since the market can persist for some time in an oversold condition that simply becomes more deeply oversold. At present, there is only a moderate “investment” merit for accepting market risk here, and very little “speculative” merit given unfavorable market action that has also cleared the prior oversold condition>

[Lone Ranger]

c,

"P/Cs are silly. Still I think S&P will stay above 740 (low confidence), and any move below 740 will be very short-lived (high confidence)."

thanks, in that case, i'll be looking to unload my SDS near 740 and be looking to buy again at same level, foolishly of course :)

[chainik]

I think it is "buy the dips" for the next couple of months. SPX 900, maybe even higher. New ROBO P/C and insiders data still look good.

Short-term - hard to tell, too much joy. P/Cs are silly. Still I think S&P will stay above 740 (low confidence), and any move below 740 will be very short-lived (high confidence). I have some cash to buy on weakness, but no plans to short.

I'll continue trading RSX, EWT, and NatGas. Mother Russia has been very cooperative. NILSY is starting to work.

I am now bullish on gold, will try to accumulate miners. Missed a dip to GDX 30.

The only new idea is airlines. I'll buy again ALK AMR CAL if oil approaches $60. ALK is probably more conservative. AMR can double or triple easily, but can go to zero as well :)

[Lone Ranger]

c,

any new thinking? is this just a correction of recent run up or does it portend retest of prior lows? still holding on to some SDS which i foolishly bought a couple days ago :)

[Lone Ranger]

c,

hoping your wish list comes true

[chainik]

No way to tell whether this is a start of the real thing or just one of the short squeezes to come, but the market should be close to a bottom.

My wish list for the early summer:

SPX 900
RSX 20
EWT 9-10
QLD 40

In addition, I'll gamble on nat gas and risky miners (like NILSY and MTL). One potential big bet that I would like to make is gold miners (GDX, AUY, and small junk). Hope to see GDX<25 and GLD<75 in a month or two.

[chainik]

I think TA is useless for trading RSX. Small manipulated market; Putin says something - the market is up or down 10%. The market is also very sensitive to rouble, which IMO again is not suitable for TA.

The bigger picture is clear IMO: US market is close to a bottom, RSX is holding well, the price of CDS against Russia default is down. RSX is mostly about commodities, and IMO commodities will outperform during the rally.

Looks good.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

"Don't agree with you re RSX. " I must have the dumb half in me :) but would you elaborate on this discussion. I'm not sure I understand the difference between what
you and Jerry are saying?

[Jerry Olson]

C:

that was a Dorsey Wright analysis...i do not know anything about Russia<g>

watch the VIX if it take sout 54.00 lookout below..big time

[chainik]

Don't agree with you re RSX. I don't think stops and TA is the right approach for this stock.

Nice aapl trade, congratulations.

[Jerry Olson]

[RSX] Market Vectors Russia ($11.850) - A double top break at $12.0 for RSX was actually the fourth near-term buy signal for the fund. The November lows at $10.50 have thus far been held after being testing a handful of times. Russia is among the most punished markets during the bear market but traction is forming and bottom-fish plays may be considered. Stops are available at 10.25 and we will update the picture as it develops. For now, trend is negative, RS is in X's and near-term the fund is on a buy signal.

[Jerry Olson]

long the April 85 calls aapl

[Jerry Olson]

i;m taking AAPL long using optiosn today

we're due now for a bounce...

[chainik]

Added to Asia and Russia. No cash left.

Gone fishing.

[chainik]

http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/204/1/February-27-2009-CNBC-EUROPE/Page1.html

A few people posted a link to mclaren, you've probably seen it.
640 is somewhat low to my taste; might happen, though.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

agree with j's comments, of course foolishly bought another 1/4 chunk of RSX, at the close

"The place should be renamed into "Justa's kabak" or "Justa's piteynaja". Justa is probably Russian as well :):

LOL,

i agree, my dogs are Russian, so are my cats, my goldfish too :))

[Jerry Olson]

she's the best C....

markets are in turmoil these days not a buyer in sight

GDP should be awful...740 break SPX we head a lot lower...

[chainik]

Starting to look better to me. New data on insiders are pretty good, smart/dumb spread is approaching 40%. P/Cs suck, but they are so weird that I prefer to disregard them.

I would normally sell RSX after 10% gain, no questions asked, but IMO now there is a chance to catch a wave up, so I am planning to hold.

IMO we are not that far away from a tradable rally. I am betting on natural gas, RSX and Asia. Will try to short gold.

[chainik]

20 years younger then me...

J, you are the best :)

The place should be renamed into "Justa's kabak" or "Justa's piteynaja". Justa is probably Russian as well :)

[Jerry Olson]

got stopped for 1 point profit woo hooski

C: I am from Russian's...the whole family was there in the olden days<g>

then they came here, and made great Jewish/Russian ethnic foods...

all with chicken fat and other wonderful goodies...

I am currently married to a Russian...20 years younger then me...

life is a beach C:

[Jerry Olson]

C:

McCellans resetting here, probably a bounce to the Zero Line form -200 below off -366 so far

then down again...i am long the SSO have a 1.00 in the trade with breakeven stops for now...

[Lone Ranger]

c,

thanks for your thoughts,

[chainik]

Either trivial or boring. Don't like history, I suppose :)

J's "800-830 in the first day or two of March" makes a lot of sense, but to get there we need some cooperation from banking sector. A shorting opportunity if we get there.

IMO a drop to around 700 should be enough for a good bottom.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

"I read a couple of his books ("The ascent of money" was the last one) and I strongly disliked them."

lol, why is that? :)

[chainik]

Na zdorov'ye as well :)

Thanks for the piece, nice interview. He might be correct about Asia, who knows.

I read a couple of his books ("The ascent of money" was the last one) and I strongly disliked them.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

nosdrovia ! :)

yes one of my parents is full rusky, not really sure whether its the foolish half or not.

did you by chance see this neil ferguson piece? talks about asia and a little about the mother country
in edit: for some reason the link is down at the bottom of the page :(
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090223.wferguson0223/BNStory/crashandrecovery/home

[chainik]

That's funny, a foolish Russian half. One of the parents?
I bet Jerry is Russian is well :)

About CDSs (old one, but gives an idea):
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/12/country-default-risk-rises-across-the-board.html

I think Russian CDS is up to about 800 (Ukraine is around 4000).
CDSs is a small manipulated market, but still being somewhere between Venezuela and Vietnam is not good :)

[Lone Ranger]

c,

thanks for a very non-foolish detailed explanation,

(Russia CDS is climbing up),

what is russia CDS?

btw, the foolish half of me is Russian also :)

[chainik]

<what is your irrationality of asian market based on?>

Nothing rational :)

Healthier economies, "that's where future is" bla-bla, younger population, nice dividends (eg EWT EWS), Asia did not participate in the recent decline (eg EWT). Psychologically, for me it is an easy buy and hold. Faber has specifically mentioned Vietnam and Cambodia.

Mother Russia is a long story... There is a chance to lose more or less everything (Russia CDS is climbing up), but I think at these levels risk/reward is very good. My smart classmates are buying. RSX is a very good trading stock, but I prefer Asian ETFs. I have too much exposure to Russia anyway (I am Russian).

GLL is one of the options. I think gold will go much higher eventually.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

what is your irrationality of asian market based on? does that include mother russia?
is there a short etf for GLD? thanks

[chainik]

Good point.

[Jerry Olson]

well the McCellans are deeply oversold at -366

i would think a week worth of bounces maybe..but i'll use trailing stops...

then hit this from above

[chainik]

Not sure that it's a good idea to stay long for more than a day or two.

I am irrationally confident in Asian stocks and in the gold's decline.

[Jerry Olson]

even i'm long<g>

[chainik]

Also bought RSX and added to EWT.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

sorry, it gets old, but i foolishly added some RSX at the close yesterday,
like you say, i'll never learn :)