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<we should get a nice pop next week>
Certainly a possibility; there is a gap around 830 (S&P) - if it is closed within the next few days, I'll probably try a short with a stop.
My problem is that at these levels, it makes more sense to buy and hold rather than to gamble for a few percent wins on short positions :)
Gold is starting to look like a big short to me. No hysteria similar to 2008 top yet, but it's getting close. A drop in gold should probably coincide with a significant rally in the general market.
Not bearish at all. Just regret that I've missed a shorting opportunity (again) and don't have a lot of cash left.
I am thinking a sharp move to around 720-740 on S&P (obviously, just a guess). IMO, Asia may not participate in the decline.
C:
we should get a nice pop next week or two off the deeply oversold McCellans, then a break of the Nov lows...
the BP's are falling like stones...heavy stones...
heading to brunch here in Philly
Tell the Loneranger Tonto has deserted him<g>
c,
wow, never seen you so bearish, :(
this market sure has been tough for most
any ideas at what price the bottom occurs?
I think this time J is right :(
Probably another November-like bottom in a few weeks, followed by a more sustainable rally.
c,
are we ready to rally soon? i foolishly bought some RSX on friday. i hope Jerry is that super contrary indicator i'm looking for. :)
well ther McCellans are oversold for a short bounce play
then down we go..
the BP's are in sync<vbg> they;re all going much lower
<everything is in sync now for much lower prices>
J, great sense of humor, as usually :)
Not everything is in sync, that's for sure.
A trip lower is possible, but it should be brief IMO.
C: lol
hey it works for me pal...
NYSE BP lost 10% in just the last 2 days...
everything is in sync now for much lower prices
J, remember one rule: screw BP traders.
The rest is noise :)
C:
NDX BP reversed back down here along with the NYSE
crash helmets please...
I passed. Now waiting for RSX 10.60, EWT 6.50 and oversold readings to start buying.
I think weak close today and retest of the lows down the road.
I'll try to trade long.
Any directional move is better than noise :)
c,
"I won't wait for the low-risk entry and will try to add EWT below 7 and RSX below 12."
you got your wish :)
i foolishly, of course, added a little RSX
any current thoughts?
C
this does not look very good here...any break of 800 SPX 7650 DJIA is real trouble ahead...and getting a lot worse over time...
I think today's reversal was significant; not because of the TA arguments (based on sentiment or TA, we can easily go to new lows), but because the plan to modify the mortgages might be perceived as an important step towards long-term solution.
I won't wait for the low-risk entry and will try to add EWT below 7 and RSX below 12.
Waiting for a bit lower prices, but no strong opinion.
I am interested mostly in Asia and Russia.
C
you buying here?? or waiting for lower...
lol
i am not bullish, and i am not getting punished...
J, I can only repeat what I said before :)
<Watch Jerry: as soon as he turns bullish, sell :) For now, it's just about punishing momentum traders>
C
we got some buy signals today...
now if i'm right we are mid way between 945 & 745
which way will it go??? 1 ruble is the bet!
man you can say that again a few times
<I think the mini-rallies yesterday and today might be related to new money (first few days of the month). I am planning to hold at least until Friday/early next week before selling some>
Sold a little. The easy part ("buy SPX 800-850") is over. Might be time for a minor pullback (beginning of month new money is "invested"; "sell the stumulus news").
BP on NDX is close to a "buy"(g).
Same general plan as before. Buy another trip to SPX 800-850, sell slowly if the market goes higher.
The bigger picture IMO is pretty clear: 5-7 year from now, anybody who bought EWS or EWT will look like a genius :)
The bill on the hill is a hill unto itself. In the Senate, it is quickly becoming a mountain - of sh*t.
Me too :)
I mean it worked nicely a few days in a row. Not this time.
c,
"Had relatively high confidence." that scares me :))
Tea does EWs as well, not sure how important it is for him in comparison with other tools.
I picked up more or less the exact top today with my "strong close" bs. Had relatively high confidence. Happens :(
c,
quick look, not must time left for the bulls to run, is tea an e-waver?
Very interesting charts from tea today.
I'll try a guess: strong close on nasdaq. If correct, I'll sell some.
actually i expect a full re test of the lows, a solid bounce and then a "potential" break below that double bottom
course i have been known to be wrong at times<g>
i think it all depends on the bill up on the hill...
I misunderstood you. I thought you were expecting prices much lower than in Nov. I have nothing against a retest in 30-60 days.
<800 SPX...that will be the trigger>
Or bear trap :)
C
I'll stick to my guns too. We test the NOV lows within the next 30-60 days...simple as that
watch for abreak possibly this week of 800 SPX...that will be the trigger
I think you are right; not good for picking exact tops/bottoms, and not good for choppy stuff.
c,
those are lagging indicators are they not? sort of like the MACD?
please correct me if i'm foolish in my thinking :)
J, I'll stick to my guns: let me know what is your current momentum thinking, and I'll bet against you :)
It has been a lousy time to use momentum tools - no real buying, no real selling, no put or call buying by small suckers, just back and forth chop.
Not that I am excited about the long side, but IMO this is unlikely:
<entire stock market would be in free fall over the next 30-60 days>
Chainik
Very bearish "IF" what i think is going to happen, actually happens<g>
The Momentum factor is a weekly cycle on P&F it just turned negative after being positive for 11 weeks straight not a good sign based on the current price structure of the market..
But maybe Team Obama can pull a better rabbit out of his.....well you know what i mean eh?
<pick up in demand due to expected economic recovery>
Or maybe just some risk taking coming back. Faber thinks that the first rally attempt will be a fake.
BTW, as far as I understand, J is using BPs and McClellan Oscillator to determine the momentum, and IMO this approach makes sense (can not say this about most of the TA garbage floating around). I just think that this is not a good time for momentum trading.
c,
"I like Faber's idea that industrial commodities will start outperforming gold in the near future. Worth watching."
if this occurs simple reasoning is a pick up in demand due to expected economic recovey,
"Jerry the trend man was VERY bearish today :)"
this must be very bullish! :)
thanks for your non-foolish thoughts! :)
As usually, no idea :)
I think the mini-rallies yesterday and today might be related to new money (first few days of the month). I am planning to hold at least until Friday/early next week before selling some.
Jerry the trend man was VERY bearish today :)
I like Faber's idea that industrial commodities will start outperforming gold in the near future. Worth watching.
I think any trip in the direction of new lows will be very brief.
c,
very strange action, indices up, skf up, wonder how far we can run without the financial sector participating? any thoughts ?
One can easily find a lot of "positive divergences" these days :)
IMO the big picture is clear: it's a huge mess/recession/depression - and probably an excellent time to accumulate assets.
I bought back RSX, hopefully for a trade :)
c,
even though we're down pretty hard on the indices, the bkx-xlf is not near it recent low, does that indicate anything material?
j,
I haven't noticed that you called me "j". Same explanation :)
Epilepsy is a nasty stuff. One can only hope that it is transient.
c,
sorry i addressed you as j in prior post, i think i've thoroughly lost my mind with this market and advancing age :)
j,
yes, maybe he's getting his feel and mojo back :)) he's been through a lot of late
IMO, good guesses from Jason:
1. weak close today,
2. ugly GDP tomorrow,
3. buy the gap down :)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/profile.asp?user=13229
Nothing personal, J is a reasonable guy. The problem is that he is using BPs or McClellan Oscillator to determine the momentum/trend (I think Hussman does something similar), and I think in the current environment it is a wrong approach.
c,
"Watch Jerry: as soon as he turns bullish, sell :) "
Who/where is Jerry?
No strong opinion. I sold today, but not much.
The timing of a rally is suspect (end of month + Fed), so there is a decent chance that the gains will be given back at the beginning of February.
I'll buy back SPX 800-850 and sell gradually if we go higher. Would be nice to see QLD>30.
Total P/C, insiders, OEX P/C, AMG flows all look bearish.
On another hand, IMO the folks around are also somewhat bearish, so a further move higher will be a surprise for them.
Watch Jerry: as soon as he turns bullish, sell :) For now, it's just about punishing momentum traders.
Nice one from Grantham:
http://www.investorazzi.com/2009/01/23/investor-letters-jeremy-grantham-2/
c,
is this the start of a true rally to 1000 ?
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