Justa's Dive Bar

[chainik]

TED does not look that bad, might be just a noise.

I think that the acute phase of the crisis is over, and that we won't see November-like panic in the near future. Just a chronic manic depression with a rally or two to SPX 1000+ and a trip to November lows.

Insiders, OEX, total PC, AMG flows all suck - hard to be too optimistic.

Interesting moves in gold and in bonds.

Geithner decides to be tough with our creditors. I hope he knows what he is doing.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/23/business/worldbusiness/23treasury.html?_r=1&ref=business

[Lone Ranger]

c,

perhaps the problem with the market is the TED spread is creeping back up, not a good sign.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP%3AIND

sorry about the prior post :(

[Lone Ranger]

[Lone Ranger]

c,

sentiment looks lke it will be continuing in the same direction! :))
hopefully we bounce off of 800

[chainik]

<Sentiment in recent days has finally taken steps in the right direction. The Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI) dropped nearly 17 percentage points on Tuesday, bringing this sentiment benchmark to below where it stood at the Nov. 20 market low>

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Stock-market-often-declines-inauguration/story.aspx?guid=%7B5B0F026D%2D1554%2D4237%2DAE91%2DF7AA657A0B69%7D

[chainik]

I added a little RSX, hopefully for a trade :)

If the banking sector does not stabilize, we are on the way to new lows. Long way to go.

I'll be buying Asia for long-term

[Lone Ranger]

c

"I have no idea."

you and me both, i didn't even have enough sense to by at the close today, once again, i am a deer stuck in the headlights, :)

[chainik]

Might happen, I have no idea.

Tea likes to draw a lot of lines :)

[Lone Ranger]

c,

"it bothers him that his views are close to consensus."

that's key, we probably rally hard ! :)

following chart from tea

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BKX&p=60&yr=0&mn=9&dy=3&i=p05462451418&a=89765548&r=6011

[chainik]

McLaren is making a specific prediction (a top around Wednesday, then continuation of the move down to new lows or to retest Nov low). He mentioned (correctly IMO) that it bothers him that his views are close to consensus.

There is still room for an optimistic scenario: recent decline is just a retrace of bs Christmas rally; now we can go higher :)

Insiders are not buying, not good.

Yep, I think e wave guys are nuts, but it's just me. Of course professionals think that technical or sentiment stuff is garbage as well :)

[Lone Ranger]

c,

regarding that mclaren link. it seems he is saying that in any case we should have a third thrust either to confirm the bottom or to break lower. interestingly a guy i follow is an e-waver and he thinks we're going lower, it seems i remember you saying that you didn't think much of e-wavers, :) are my prior "reads" correct?

[chainik]

Nickel.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NILSY.PK

I am not even trying to analyze the fundamentals, just following my friend who is supposed to know what he is doing. His major argument is that a big chuck of shares now indirectly belongs to various Russian Government officials.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

interesting links.

"I am trying to accumulate NILSY. " what is NILSY?

[chainik]

Falling knife for sure; otherwise, no idea :)

This guy makes sense IMO:
http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/201/1/January-16-2009-CNBC-SquawkBox-Europe/Page1.html

Zulauf is gloomy (S&P eventually down to 400-600). I like his suggestings (gold, oil, EWS, EWH).

Mobius suggests nickel among other things.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajwGMM8pk8zY&refer=home
I am trying to accumulate NILSY.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

does the financial sector look promising to you? near a double bottom and nothing but bad news.

[chainik]

Never, man, never :)

I think we are at a critical juncture. A little bit of further weakness - and we are in a confirmed downtrend, and there is a LONG way to go to the bottom
(eg http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html ).

A rebound from here - and we have "bear trap", "stimulus", "risk taking", "uptrend is intact" bs.

I like the second option better.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

once again foolishly added the close, this time sso, when will i ever learn? :)

[chainik]

<it won't feel so bad, if i call it portfolio instead of account>

Cute idea; "portfolio" certainly sounds more professional :)

I added to RSX and Asia. Cash is low again. Not smart, plenty of room for much lower prices, but I made my mind in advance (g).

"In the long run" buying SPX 800-850 should be OK. For now, it is a sucker's consolation :)

[Lone Ranger]

c,

once again, like a moth to a flame, i foolishly added rsx to the trading portfolio at the close. hoping it won't feel so bad, if i call it portfolio instead of account<g>

[chainik]

I don't understand J's logic this time.

My guess is that we should get to more overbought levels before turning down again. Cannot make a strong case, just a guess.

"Feels" more like a correction in a weak uptrend.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

looks like a couple of jg's models agree with you.

[chainik]

I am betting on another move higher before expiration. Too many puts the last few days. Not I good risk/reward, I am afraid.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

"Insiders and OEX "determination" are close to "sell". Not good."

you ain't lyin kimosabe! looks like i was premature as usual<g>

wonder if we're gonna touch your 850 wag before some kind of meaningful rally?

[chainik]

I also bought RSX.

My WAG is 850-1000+ range on S&P.

Insiders and OEX "determination" are close to "sell". Not good.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

fwiw, in a trading account, i foolishly bought a fifth of a full load of rsx near the close.
probably early as i think probably everyone who misssed the new "bull market" wants to buy the pullbacks now, plan is to wait for further weakness to deploy the other 4/5's,

[chainik]

We are all deers here, and those who pretend otherwise are morons :)

Totally agree with you re TBT and RSX. I have seen TBT mentioned dozens of times recently - from WSJ and Barrons to IHub, which is not good ("TBT" has been mentioned in 50+ posts on IHub during the last two days). Still, I think it's a good long-term trade.

Funny - I am also influenced by two old Russian friends who are investing in Russia and doing business there. Both increased their exposure to Russian stocks recently.

[napolm01]

listen it has been beaten down so hard buy the fact that treasuries were so over bought we have pleanty of room to run..
buy on dips and accumulate!

[Lone Ranger]

c,

i'm a deer stuck in the headlights. <g> i like tbt but so does everyone else and its up what 20% in last few days, i also like your rsx, was speaking with someone who does business in mother russia and he says they will straighten out their economy, rsx trades like a 2 or 3x fund <g>

[chainik]

Happy New Year too.

Don't have a strong opinion. I am assuming that 740 was the major bottom (S&P) and that we will eventually get to 1100 or 1200 in 2009.

Short-term the market is obviously very overbought. I guess all gains of the last few days will be given back. Sold some QLD, but don't want to short.

Sold all GDX.

The longer-term plan is to add Asia on weakness and to start buying TBT.

What's your thinking? Any trading ideas that you like?

[Lone Ranger]

c,

is this rally for real? happy new year and hope you and yours are well.

[chainik]

<hope you're correct>

Obviously I was wrong - the trading yesterday was ugly. I didn't expect it.

I am trading RSX only. I think oil won't stay at these levels for long.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

hope you're correct. i've still been foolishly adding at the big down closes. :)

[chainik]

My intraday numbers are starting to work again.

Optimistic interpretation (g): selling pressure is diminishing.

[chainik]

Maybe just a relative strength of financials?

We are in a period of a positive seasonality lasting about a week. Would be nice to see a mini-rally.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

read some of him before and just got done watching that interview. very good indeed. high quality s&p blue chips and high quality emerging markets appear his favorites versus high tech specualtive. perhaps that's why it seems like the s&p 500 is holding up better and rallying stronger than the nasdaq?

[chainik]

Hard to tell. Might be a fake. We got another very good bottom which "should" last a few months at least, but we had a similar situation in October - and that rally turned out to be a joke.

Have you seen an interview with Jeremy Grantham? I was really impressed. Smart experienced guy, no sales, no bs. Makes so much sense.

http://www.wealthtrack.com/

[Lone Ranger]

c,

{Right now might be a good time to start end of year rally. A lot of pieces fit together. In case of a further decline, I'll be adding slowly.}

Agree and about time. Turkeys for everyone! :)

[chainik]

I am clueless. Also added on Friday (RSX). One thing I am confident about is that my "QLD 60 by January" is a bs :)

Right now might be a good time to start end of year rally. A lot of pieces fit together. In case of a further decline, I'll be adding slowly.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

any new thoughts, ideas, ruminations ? i foolishly added a little at friday's fugly close. :) i'm now thinking the market will continue go down until all my cash has been foolishly added. :)) what do u think ?

[chainik]

So far, it is still compatible with a brief retrace during intermediate-term uptrend.

I bought back QLD and RSX. No cash left in trading accounts.

[chainik]

During the last 30 days, we had 3 opportunities to buy QLD below 30 and to sell above 36. This might be an opportunity #4 - at least when it comes to buying :)

[Lone Ranger]

c,

foolishly adding agian at the close, :) hope foolishness begins to work again

[chainik]

Also bought QLD. I'll try to add tomorrow.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

probably early but foolishly just bought them back
foolishly added to longer term accounts at the close :)

[chainik]

I think that's the nice conservative way to trade it. Folks are shorting, robo p/c is very good. Way too early to sell/short. The market might go significantly higher, especially if obama wins cleanly, without big legal challenges.

Huge run in gold miners.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

sold a little SSO at the close in trading account, if this is a mistake, that's ok because i'm foolishly long in intermediate account :) looking to buy it back a little cheaper

[chainik]

when to start selling? i'm counting on you to help me with that!

And I am counting on you :)

So far, long side still looks better. Would be nice to see substantially higher prices in the early spring.

[Lone Ranger]

c,

{{I screwed up big time during this decline. Bought too early too much.}}

welcome to the human race, bear trends always get people to buy much earlier than they should, i did much better this time, learning my lesson from the 2000 bear,
if we continue to rally, as i hope and think we should, i will have done very well, the question will then become , when to start selling? i'm counting on you to help me with that! :)

[chainik]

Every dip buying idiot (me) looks like a hero at some point. I screwed up big time during this decline. Bought too early too much.

As you know, beginning of November is seasonally strong, so it's reasonable to hold. I am just guessing that there might be some weakness around elections.

Hulbert on bonds.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Is-gold-market-sensing-deflation/story.aspx?guid=%7B02F9D40F%2D80FA%2D41C3%2DA719%2DC9F059FEDA48%7D

[Lone Ranger]

c,

you are awesome, me, i'm just very heavily long SSO, "foolishly" of course ! :)