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I will check it out later today and thanks Karl.
More news - can't be a bad thing.
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/boost-for-banks-as-nama-to-make-payments-on-junior-debt-30037838.html
Hi Malc,
here in Dublin and you can see a lot of chatter online about BKir/Ire
Will be very interesting to see what happens next monday.
here is a great Ire/Uk chat site about bkir.
http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?page=1&ShareTicker=BKIR
It's good to be at a point where there's profits and you can walk away from the screen and let it do it's thing.
Slan leat,
K
BKIR.L closed at .365 today. This is marching a lot harder towards .41 than I thought - Wow when it broke that .29 resistance it went north a lot faster than I thought.
I took a look at the one you mentioned, not my cup o' tea but good luck.
Wow. I just pulled up some BKIR.L charts, recent and historical and I still stand by a .41 resistance next.
Shares washed out around .29 all right, but not as many as I expected.
To me this current run up is trader fueled on both sides of the pond and not exactly warranted. By my last fundies calculations IRE is pretty much fair valued BV wise at .31
Positive big board sentiment returning to drive it to around 2x BV and hold? I honestly would not venture my own opinion on that but I have read other analysts viewpoints that did.
Looking a few years out though the whole Irish sector is still undervalued, and I have been accumulating a basket via eirl and have mentioned it a few times.
"You should be moderator, not I", with talk like that, I'm going to have to speak with the management about a pay cut for you... Ha ha... In the meantime, your words over the past year or so have provided me with the confidence to buy more than I otherwise would have, and I thank you for that. And as I think I have said before, according to my native Irish buddy, the "original gangsters" are the ones running the Bank of Ireland, so being on their side of the bank is definitely much better than being a customer.
In all seriousness you may want to look at the one board I am a MOD on. Very good management with some great news out today.
GO $IRE!
That makes you the original gangster around here. You should be moderator, not I.
Well some would say we took our gamble, and we won. I very often consider the contrarian view when it comes to analysts anyway.
I made some good coin on IRE even before they split, so I have been holding some pre-split on the house bonus shares with a cost at $34 LOL! The load I have at $5 and under is more than making up for them just fine though.
Read some analysts opinion that IRE should return to 2x BV and issue divis again later this year. Where do they come up with this and why wait until up here to call it a buy? Prime example why I self invest. If one waits until all the smoke clears the real returns of multiples are gone. The same fundamentals they now see existed years ago.
Looks like $IRE will be breaking $20 today, based on this morning's trading of BKIR over there.
It must be good, right? The stock went up. ;)
Whatcha think about my fundamental analysis here? Was it a good buy starting in the four dollar range?
My contentions always were and still are to follow the BRIR.L break of .029
Tons of resistance there as announced by investors in the recap from years ago.
I have been watching volume and all metrics, and I think there is a pullback tomorrow at the top of the rainbow, for now.
The 10B is only half washed IMO, there is more volatility to come before BKIR.L breaks out to about .41
Then that is it. The underlying fundamentals do not support it.
Of course if the market wants to push it higher than that I will still ride that. Never know with the historical traders premium lurking, does one?
With BKIR closing today @.339 IRE should jump about .50 cents easy, even If BKIR remains flat tomorrow. It seems we have seen little resistance since BKIR has hit the .30 mark this time. Time to ride the wave... Go $IRE!
BKIR.L at .0328. Effing sweet.
The soil up here feels kinda squishy, Go $IRE!
BKIR.L running wild alright.
It appears large numbers of .29s were chewed up in Dublin today, could start running wild very soon...
I agree about NBG. Good luck with that mine.
Well I said it originally with a little tongue in cheek but the Greek bank? I'll take my chances with the hole in the ground with the liar on top. LOL
IRE is a real bank that has been around since the 1700's. There is zero correlation between my EU investments and an exploratory gold mining stock, unless you want to compare real investment to pure gambling. Best wishes though Sabreur.
Malc, can't PM but in regards to the little gold miner and your investment here, congrats on the trading but they're both black boxes for all intents and purposes.
Ahh, the arbitrage is so random anymore, BKIR off 1% yet IRE off 4%. Go figure.
I like seeing the BKIR.L .29 level getting chewed thru though.
With the EURO's drop, arbitrage is back up to 5.9%, or $1.
Yup. Bye for now arbitrage.
I missed by a mile! Just when you think you've got a handle on something, Mr. Market reveals you are fooling yourself with a change of his habits. Today was certainly a strange day for IRE, closing down when BKIR is up. Knocked the snot out of the arbitrage too, now standing at about 0.7%..
IRE should close at or above 17.72... Now that the BKIR .29 level has again been breached, we could also quickly return to a 10% arbitrage, putting IRE at 18.64 based on BKIR's close today. I think IRE will close over 18.00 today, maybe 18.40 "my final answer".
I appreciate your input Gains and hope to see IRE at 20 this year if BKIR.L can crack thru the .29 level and sustain next attempt.
All the head traders called a "sell all financials now" around the globe... what are ya going to do when the lemmings are rushing to jump off a cliff, babies and all?
It seems the arbitrage percentage is influenced to widen with upward BKIR price moves, and contrarily IRE is slow to react, if it does at all when BKIR shares are pulling back. This all leads me to believe we won't be closing down near a 2% arbitrage again unless BKIR drops and stays under .23 for more than a week and IRE falls down to the !4.70 range. This also means when IRE gets to 20, the arbitrage should be around 12-15%.
Pretty damn close there Gains. Obviously the most important determining factor is whether BKIR.L can reverse from the sell-off and head towards .29 again. I feel it is a given long term but I have not been encouraged by several declining sessions there and continued short term weakness is certainly possible.
I'm not too certain about that quite yet... BKIR @ .273 x 1.367 x 40 = 14.95, meaning today's low trade (thus far) of 15.25 was still over BKIR by 2%.
With the "gaining" pattern showing (late) today, I expect the close to be around 15.98... 11:30 trade @ 15.82 + .16 (1% of 11:30 price) = 15.98. If IRE follows the pattern, that will leave the arbitrage at 1.03 at closing, or nearly 7%. If the 10% holds instead, we close @ 16.45.
Calling today's close @ 16.65 - .70... just guessing
No, too complicated... I simply saw a "gain day" pattern forming for IRE today.
I have noticed It seems most days if IRE starts a rising trend after London's close, it tends to gain about 1% at least, over whatever the NY 11:30 EST trading price is. Today at 11:30 IRE traded at 17.41, add .17 cents and get 17.58. It has been a fairly regular pattern for seven of the last ten days now.
Well, you nailed that one. I don't know how, but no matter. And with BKIR down 2% today.
You volume tracking with the 40x difference in float and buying pressure?
Well, that's the first theory ever here that had a bit of pragmatic plausibility behind it !!!
I summated a new theory, and if true, we will likely see a 40% premium again...
Lets say there are about the same number of investors/traders of all ranks on both sides of the pond interested in Bank of Ireland. The supply of ADR shares is known to be 40 times smaller here in the US than in Europe. If the share demand is equal (in $$) but the supply is not, a premium for the shorter supply will naturally emerge.
Of all the ADR's I own or have in the past this arbitrage here is the only time I have encountered such wild and unwarranted swings.
Calling today's close @ 17.56-17.60, or 17.40, arbitrage continuing to widen either way...
The company behind the US ADR is BKIR.L, which has retraced slightly to .291
.291 x 40 x 1.355 = 15.77
IRE is still trading at a slight premium to BKIR.L The historical premium was once 40% and was never warranted IMO.
It looks as though equilibrium is ~$15.72. Is there any reason why this is dropping off?
tia,
Net-Man
The more volume for BKIR.L at this level the better. Wipe those recap investment shares out, swap ownership for the LT.
Looks as though BKIR shares are running up the volume count in Ireland this morning.
PS... of coarse on the day I post about the post Europe close rise in IRE shares, it fails to materialize
BKIR@.299 x 1.36 =.40664 x 40 = 16.27, IRE@18.06 leaves the arbitrage at 1.79 or nearly 10% as of last night's close. Notice the unwarranted rise in IRE's PPS each day (for the last 5) starting at around 11:30am EST?
Ha. That was a short lived correction to completely unwarranted historical arbitrage eh?
I watched that growing all day as BKIR.L took a day off and yet IRE climbed. Thanks for crunching the numbers. Will we see the historical 40% again?
Today's arbitrage factor in favor of IRE has grown to 6.67% ! Let it blossom, let it grow...
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Description | A financial service group which provides a range of banking and other financial services. The company has a network of retail branches in Ireland and joint ventures United Kingdom. | |||
Website | www.bankofireland.ie | |||
investor.relations@boimail.com | ||||
Address | Lower Baggot Street, , Dublin, , IE | |||
Telephone | 35 31 6615933 | |||
FAX | 35 31 6615671 | |||
CEO | Brian J. Goggin | |||
Employees | 16,026 | |||
Issue Type | AD | |||
Market Cap | $1,101M | |||
Auditors | PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS LLP | |||
Last Audit | UQ | |||
CIK | 0001022575 | |||
NAICS Classification | International Trade Financing | |||
SIC Code | Foreign Trade and International Banking Institutions (6082) | |||
Gross Margin | 0.0 | Return on Equity | 26.2 | |
EBIT Margin | 68.0 | Return on Capital | 2.3 | |
Profit Margin | 12.8 | Return on Assets | 0.9 | |
Outstanding | 245.1 M | Float | 0.0 M | |
Short Interest | 0.2 M (3/1/2009) | Short Int. Ratio | 0.3 (0.0% of float) | |
Insider Holdings | 0.0% (0/) | |||
Bought 3 months | 0 | Sold 3 months | 0 | |
Institutional Holdings | 1.9% (0/) | |||
Total Holdings | 4.9M held by 62 institutions | |||
Bought last month | 1.4 M | Sold last month | 1.0 M |
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Last Trade Time: |