Index and $VIX Tops and Bottoms (No Pennies!!!!) ($SPXA50R)

[michael03332002]

Let's just call it DD


Oh yea. That's a keeper

[TeaCake]

Quick and dirty - 5 min SPX seems to target 1852.37...but every target has been eaten alive for the last few days. I would not be surprised at 1820.

Out of here- just a few quick looks since I was out all afternoon.

Have fun!

PS - I see UVXY did it's World Famous Double Dipper move (technically, I suppose I should be calling it double spike - Double Dipper is more fun!)

[michael03332002]

was all over TVIX with some shares at 10.89

market bounced and hovered and made me nervous so I bailed

mid morning for basically scratch


didnt want to be underwater on a spike and was looking like they

were holding this market UP

BIG MISTAKE

of course

[TeaCake]

Could well be - it certainly looks like a 4 today.

I got bored and took off at noon when it started that sideways crap.

Flat so I will hum along with whatever it sings...

[michael03332002]

looking for a gap DOWN in the am to 1820-40ish like everyone

else


that scares me, could hold it there and then blow thru that to

1780 area in a heartbeat


GULP

[TeaCake]

Correction - ideal fibs for fresh impulse
1=87
3=1=1975
3=1.618i=2007
5wave impulse 2118

No one needs an announcer. Y'all have fun!

[TeaCake]

Mindbender - looking at a 5min chart and trying to count it and that 5min chart has an 88 point bounce.

<g> Just wotthehell amd I supposed to do with that???

Edit - Forgot...but the idealized fibs if (IF!) that is the start of a new impulse. 1=1954, 3=1975, 5=2118. Show me - don't tell me!

Edit (again) - RRC from 1879 behaving as it should - and it fibs within itself close enough to 1975. Time will tell...

[TeaCake]

In my world, a RRC cannot be broken sideways

On a daily, it would look prettier as a 5 waver to 1820ish...but I have that bear problem. Absoluely, nothing wrong with it as an ABC.

Would that be an 'A' of an even larger ABC? Doubt it - too close to bullish season.

So why is an impulse flat? Standard TA consolidation? Waiting on Margin Calls to go out? Everyone out for a Gyros and beer?

(BTW - even a 5 min RRC is boring as hell this morning.)

[TeaCake]

Acting more like a 4 than a new impulse up to my mind...but that is probably just that bear blood that I bleed. Doesn't matter to a 5/15 player but interesting...

Need a HH to go with that HL
(Really Capt Obvious? I never would have guessed that!)

Edit - I really need to get off the 5/15 charts. <g> It just hit me that I suspected a wave structure off one day - on a 5min chart...what a wiz!

[michael03332002]

I am going to put every ounce of buying power ( within reason )

lol

into SVXY tomm


its gonna be a fast swoop and recovery so gotta pick a spot and
go with it, OR sit on the buy button every second of the morning

cant do that usually so I just pick a number

going with 34.50-35.50 area

can live with missing the low by a buck

the bounce tomm, if any, should carry us to close on the high

will sell on a gap UP next day and rebuy around noonish to follow

thru...


that should make some coin but I dont have the guts to put up

everything I own, although might look back someday and go

WHAT A BUNGHOLE I WAS

[michael03332002]

exactly

a little profit is better than allot of nothing


M

[TeaCake]

Stopped out. Made 2%. Woo Hoo!

But the 50% XIV bounce was most kind to me. (Not kind enough to make up for missing 195%...but kind...)

Flat at close.

Edit- was up 8% so put a stop out to protect some profit. I figured the streak I am on...lock profit.

Re-edit - when will margin calls go out? I never use it so I am a bit fuzzy. Is it still 3 days? Tomorrow??? Tomorrow afternoon???
That would be the buy point to my thinking...

[michael03332002]

well intra day lows dont count

lol

did you ditch UWTI?

[TeaCake]

I am going home flat. I am still not very proud of myself for blowing it the way I did. I will stick to 5/15 min charts for a few days to make sure I am over the 'stupids'.

24.97 to 73.69 for 48.72 (195%)...you don't get a chance like that very often (once a year <g>)...and I p---ed it away...with a roadmap and knowing it was coming.

Out of here 9/9 anyway if not before - redfish and jacks to be harassed.


But not a happy fishbum!

EDIT - With a little luck, SPX may put in a HL today...tomorrow (3rd day for margin monkeys?) could be...INTERESTING!

[442 oldsman]

Damn good looking chart I can see what u mean XIV a lot clearer.

[michael03332002]

put in an OTB order on SVXY at 36-36.50 area and will watch and

see if they massively dump into the close


last 10-15 minutes liable to be very brutal to longs


they are not ready to save this market IMHO

[michael03332002]

its is hard to trade off UVXY chart, to me its reactionanary


in other words it doesnt trade to OS/OB, gaps, yada yada

its direction is determined by other factors and you have

hit on the perfect tool to watch, XIV and VIX also

when they hit their number or area, then UVXY or SVXY not the other

way around

I tried forcing a number on UVXY and found that it was never the

same when my watch stock was back in position, always different

[TeaCake]

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=UVXY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p32472163707&a=280773771&r=1440439829441
This is insane. Last year
45% in 5(?) weeks. This year - 54% in 5 days
65% bounce in 2 months. This year 50% bounce in 5 hours

One of those "This is your Market" and "This is your Market on drugs" things...

I cannot trade off the UVXY chart - I trade the turns on the XIV chart. There is a narrow view XIV somewhere down the thread (I think?).

But a narrower UVXY for you...

Needs cleaned up - some scribbling from pre-reverse split...
The Stockcharts get used for scratch pads...some of it still there...

[442 oldsman]

Thanks you really do your homework. I found the post #1802 I was thinking about but no charts.

It makes people serious cash now if you are not in love with it.

About 3 years of data...
Averages around 82% on major spikes - one spike of 105%, one spike 153%
Mundane spikes average 32%

Then consistently falls 69% from previous spike high

Out of the last 1000 days, if you held it the right 6% of days, you have done rather well. The other 94% of the time, not so much...

Being a fishbum, I look to hold it the right 6 days maybe 2-3 times a year...take the money and go fishing the rest of the time (or ride XIV). It teaches you patience...

Can be 3-8% intraday if you are into playing just to be playing (I am not!)

Pairs well enough with XIV. JMHO of course.

[442 oldsman]

I had a few mins to trade earlier, just shooting for lunch money. With that said, it's a good thing I'm not hungry.

[TeaCake]

It is a live link. As is the other narrower local link if you dig it out.

Since I mentioned it Friday (and stupidly disregarded my own words in the XIV trade) and UVXY is such an evil sumbidge, let me restate...

All getting stopped out means is that you get a better entry later
True for any 2x/3x etf!

Ride hard but ride smart!

[michael03332002]

great chart


Tea, does this chart auto update?

in other words


can I save it huh daddy?

please please can I save it


PUH LLLLLEEEEEEEEE ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

[michael03332002]

remember the DSLV/USLV thing I asked you to watch with me???


like clockwork USLV hit a high so far at 945 CST and has backed off

so far 60 cents


unless its something related to gold/silver exactly even a day

like today doesnt deter the same old same old


high mid morning pullback rest of day till 130-2 ish CST


got to get in and out 1 trade or it will freeze on you and not

move

[TeaCake]

Cluttered but usable...

Edit - if you find the other one, it is probably narrower in time and more functional for local stuff

[TeaCake]

Again - not advice...

Quick glance at some past UVXY spikes
Will retrace ~ 50%ish of spike in quick dip before returning to or making a new high to finish the move...in really really fast action.
Double dipper if you get my meaning...

Feeling nimble today, Oldsman? <G>

[michael03332002]

I think so

thing about WTIC is it will probably trend down over time

until something happens middle east to trigger a spike

holding some yang money shares will get you paid sometime

lol

but remember I was also looking at the .6666 area

that those guys might shoot for to be dastardly and cute

all at the same time.....

[442 oldsman]

U did post that chart , I'll see if I can dig it up.

[TeaCake]

As a sideline, I scooped up a gambling load of UWTI .76 since it hit your .77 target and my 38.80 WTIC target....should be a 4 of 5 somewhere around for a quick hitter (hopefully)....

[michael03332002]

well actually it would be good that they TRY

the threat of doing something will usually temper direction

let them jump in but when everyone figures out its not working

nothing left to do but

SELL SELL SELL

[442 oldsman]

150% agree more down coming, that SVXY trade should be a great but a short one, then go lone UXVY. I think unlike the previous FED manipulations, they won't have to same strength this time around, with everything going on with world market. Last couple yrs every time the I jumped like this the FED intervened a blew me up!

[michael03332002]

bring it on

[TeaCake]

Not advice by any means...just data

153% is the largest UVXY spike.

Usually double hits in the big moves.

ALWAYS falls 50% minimum - usually 68% from any high involving 30% or greater spike (declining asset - time function on option base)

Did I post a UVXY chart with all that here?

Edit - if not, I have one with all the verticals and % moves up and down for something like 3 years.

[michael03332002]

I noticed that this is the second gap down still open

Been on Ihub a long time and there was a very good trader

AJTJ that said always buy the 3rd gap down as long as the other

2 above are still open

the last and sometime second gap will fill before it turns back

down


thats what I am counting on with SVXY


also some looking at NFLX as a solid buy in the 85 range

with resistance at 102.50

might have potential

[TeaCake]

Agree. Could/should ABC to 1820 (if not 1729 - fib for move from 1074)(I can hum along with 1820).

I think we need one more dip. 3 done 4 in progress 5 to come...and that will be the 'A'????

Regardless...3 days to kill margin monkeys?

[michael03332002]

looking back over the last 5 years SVXY

I am hoping for a hard and quick gap down to the 35.50-36.25

level for a super duper all time, put up or shut up buy


it may happen AH or pre-market OR during the day on a slam and

recover SO what I am going to do is slice of some trading power

and tie it up at that price range for a

" YOU DID WHAT " buy

takers?

every body and their dog looking for this gap to fill and it will

but not after some more DOWN

[442 oldsman]

I agree with all those points, going to get some orders ready for mid week.

Tea go kick em in the ass.

[michael03332002]

on another board

had a pretty good trader say that the ES futes SPX 1935ish

should be resistance and Gleno looking for a montly low

around 1820-30ish


too many people may be jumping in or averaging down here

think we see another decent gap down over night

maybe tues night/wed am

THAT will be a good I/T buy point me thinks


not sure about new highs coming but going to be a choppy process

getting back about 2000


hang in there, your good and you know it

just keep your mind sharp on what IS

not what you want it to be

the rest will work itself out

soon

[442 oldsman]

Gulp, buying uvxy 53.51

[michael03332002]

No Problem

like I said, been Mr. Whiner and will be again

please keep all coupons for cheeze

will need some again

and soon

[TeaCake]

Is this the '4' or the '4 of C' ('4 of C' which could be an even larger 'A')

I need to shake it off and get going instead of pouting....(^$#&^$&^!!!!)

[TeaCake]

LOL!!

Bunghole!

But thanks for for the cheese anyway...even if I did blow coffee all over my screen.

Thanks. I needed that...<g>

[michael03332002]

contacted amazon

got some cheese headed your way

gonna be droned straight to ya


lol


I ate all of my cheeze LOOOOOONNNNGGGG ago

[TeaCake]

Yeah yeah yeah....<g>

I am so damned disappointed in my self that I can't see straight. Last October UVXY did a 153% spike - and I have have spent almost a year waiting and planning for THIS move. Everything I have done since then was to get to the point of having the the ENTIRE trading account (not the usual position - the whole enchilada) in UVXY when this hit. And I had the map - and knew it! Nailing the channel for the year, building the war chest...waiting on that one last top. Dammit!

I was so supremely sure that it would not happened in front of OPEX or probably even in front of EOM window dressing. Not bad enough to miss it but be on the wrong side of it for a part of it...

Some people need a keeper! Dust and ashes...

whine whine whine

[michael03332002]

SVXY looks like the play on a HUGE bounce coming soon

I imagine

would love to buy it RIGHT before they close the market

should be up 5-10 points on the re-open ME THINKS

[TeaCake]

I had a target of 41 on VIX as most likely...I might be an optimist.

Going to be short trades (if any) til 60min starts working again. I still have hoofprints all over me from last week. Ouch!

[TeaCake]

OT? - I talked to about everyone directly or indirectly in the family and circle of friends last week or over the weekend. Generally, 50-60 somethings with about half of us already retired and the rest not far from it. As a group, conservative ERA, 401k, mutual people (me being the only one that even has an açcount on the side to trade with) and one gold bug.

Everyone had learned the the lesson of 2000 and 2007. Half were already out of anything to do with stocks with the remainder set to be out at 10%. Not surprising that family has similar ideas but even personal friends with no connection to family were working on the same play sheet.

What I did find odd and interesting was that everyone said they would not get near stocks again for a minimum of 90 days and 6 months the more likely window. I wondered how widespread such views were?

What happens when you hold a market and no one comes? For 90 days? 6 months or a year? Maybe we are about to find out...

[TeaCake]

Not surprising...weekly is large and in charge.
Pivot 1963
Gleno CCI on 1959 (100 day)

I would expect a v bottom for EOM on one hand...but it has to be held 3 days to squeeze margin monkeys. I would expect help for happy happy statements EOM...but I also expected 2040ish to hold through EOM.

Think there are 5wave to the 'c'...but is it a 'c' or a 3 with 4 and 5 in the wings?

Purely XIV view...somewhere around here it is going to retrace 50%ish (I hope)...or not...

I would like to see 2010-2020ish spx...but the streak I am on...I am not sure I could hit the ground with a football...

[michael03332002]

Futures not looking good

[TeaCake]

Idle speculation (what isn't?)...if it were to go up and make a right shoulder....

[TeaCake]

Since I am fairly content with my XIV/VIX work even if I am...
1)Off on timing and got badly surprised
2)Too f@&%*%$g stooooopid to trade it correctly
3)Both

I should probably throw out a few quick and dirty sign post since I am too sorry to do any real work....

If Da Boyz are just having a tizzy because some hardheads in the Fed want to raise rates and cause Da Boyz to have to do some real work instead of sloshing around 2 trillion(?) of 0% money to earn their 7 and 8 figure bonuses then
C=A (200) for 1934ish.

If we revisit 1820 (314 pts) in an ABC and assume b=38% (assume=ass u me) with a little basic math, then a=193 for 1941, b=73, c=193

Bearish...topped and 38% retrace to 1730...requiring an assumption (yeah...I know). Assume b=38% and a=c for (2134-1730) would imply a=249 for 1885(a), b=95, c=249. Then a rocket launch...(jmho)

Then again, maybe everything from 666 was an ABC and we are all going to hell in a hand basket...
https://search.yahoo.com/search;_ylt=ApHOs9VpOJ69K60457eqsWmbvZx4?fr=yfp-t-252-s&toggle=1&fp=1&cop=mss&ei=UTF-8&p=the%20end%20doors%20youtube
Or not...

Now I see why I started riding the RRC and watching indicators...when I don't let FA like OPEX turn my head. Home on the range...