IT Tech Packaging Inc (ITP)

[tootalljones]

Risi, don't get conned. here is one thing that I never hear from the ONP longs, and yes they have been hammered. SO HAS ALMOST EVERYONE ELSE. This descent has simply been more colorful. Has anybody every heard of the saying, sell in may and go away. i assure you, MW has. The sector will rebound starting in the next thirty days, maybe earlier. I have my seat now in ONP. The stocks that fall the most, with terrific businesses, will rebound the most. MW will be a short's wet dream by year end, and the shorts will be road kill. They have been shorting en masse the sector, and the economies of these companies could not be more clear. They are terrific businesses, and ONP is a top tier small cap. The management is first class in every way. Get in. As charlie munger said, and he is buffet's partner, you find and invest in a half dozen of the very best companies, and then, in order to get rich, sit on your a s s and do nothing. ONP will double by year end, and up another double by April 2011....

[tootalljones]

JOE, a dynamite update. thanks for your efforts and I mean this.

[Michael Anderson]

Taking Another Look at Orient Paper's Innocence:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/220373-taking-another-look-at-orient-paper-s-innocence?source=yahoo

[risi]

Another case of a shorter bashing to gain for himself. Confusing documents with vague arguments. It seems that many shorters are jumping on the band wagon to destroy the pps. Scumms of the greatest degree IMO. Hopefully this review will be completed soon so we here from an independent voice with the real authority to speak rather than a blogger who has nothing better to do than do arm chair analysis.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/220175-orient-paper-inconsistent-record-keeping-raises-red-flags?source=yahoo

[risi]

short squeeze?

[Michael Anderson]

I do not blame you for selling out because of the selling pressure. When I saw the blog last night, I was thinking of selling in after hours yesterday or pre market today anticipating it would appear as news, which it did. I had a feeling it would effect the stock. I did not sell because these short term distractions are just unknown bloggers manipulating and providing misleading info. There is so much to go through especially on CCAs other articles that are easily disputed, but in this new one. He first provides information that is directed from his own site and not from an actual link. He fabricates information in everything he states. In regards to him stating that they are a shell, that is incorrect. It is a supplier and as stated on many occasions SAIC documents are not neccessarily an indication of actual revenue. This is his probably his best manipulation because it is probably the most difficult to disprove, but there is much more to what he states in just about everything he posts. Knowing that the results would be coming soon, his only purpose is to drop the price of the stock, otherwise if CCA was so certain of fraud, he would wait for the results. Then he tries to discredit Loeb and Loeb, and Deloitte so when the results come, they do not mean as much. It is a joke.

[risi]

OK, after sifting through this "anonymous" blogger's article, this guy is full of crap. I'm back in with a full position.

[risi]

On this point you are most likely incorrect as he states that he is short ONP. I would venture that he is continuing to short. Another point to keep in mind is this is an anonymous blogger. What reputable analyst would stay anonymous. These guys are scums of the most despicable order and Seeking Alpha should be ashamed of themselves for publishing this trash.

[Leafs007]

Well, we don't know if he is shorting it or not....his article, to me, seems credible which doesn't boast well for ONP and, for that matter, Chinese sc....

[risi]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/219704-orient-paper-s-top-supplier-an-empty-shell-owned-by-onp-s-ceo?source=yahoo

Hhmmm... this guy is short ONP so he has a serious motivation for making this stock go down. His credibility is in question in such an article and he was probably part of the bunch who was selling to kill momentum yesterday. Now he times an article to make it go down even more.

On the other hand, one would be stupid not to consider such strong accusations with documentation. I've drunk the cool-aid on too many stocks before. It's time for ONP to come clean and soon.

Disclosure: I sold out yesterday (Aug 9) at $5.25 to protect profits under the tremendous amount of selling pressure. I will now wait to see what ONP does in answering these accusations before I re-enter. If any of these accusations are proven true, ONP will have a serious credibility issue to overcome and I will move on from ONP. I am hoping for the best. If they are exonerated, this one will take off like a rocket and those like me will be left chasing the pps. But, if the issues come true, we could be trading below $1. The downside scares me too much right now. I'll wait on the sidelines for now.

[risi]

This whole issue is a sad case of one guy who for his own enrichment put out a false hyped up report so he could make a lot of money. He accomplished his goal. He stands as one of the greatest scumbags of the year. I'm sure he has made a few hundred thousand dollars off this if not more and all at the expense of good honest share holders.

Yes Manatee, I am back. ONP has a great future and if they can keep delivering, this one has several doubles ahead in the next 5-10 years IMO.

[manatee]

Nice to see you back risi. Yeah, I cant believe this suit either. As things currently stand, Muddy Waters cost the shareholders not ONP. Orient Paper did nothing to bring the sp down, MW are the ones that should be sued, unless they can completly prove any of their accusations. Or better yet, lets sue the firm that brought the first suit for bringing more selling pressure to sharholders lolol.

[manatee]

Pretty much figures. I never really bought into their BS anyway, not that there wasnt a slight moment of "what if even one thing they say is right?". Seems like in all this time ONP was their only focus with no other companies "researched" Oh well, got a chance to reload some low 4s.

[Michael Anderson]

It is one guy that this law firm got to sue ONP and they are trying to get others to come on board. The complaint is just reiterating exactly what Muddy Waters has stated which there has obviously been no proof provided to validate these claims. It is a joke and will be exonerated quickly.

http://www.rosenlegal.com/cases/122/ONPComplaintFiled.pdf

what a joke and obviously muddy waters, which this claim is based off of their report, is an even bigger joke and Muddy waters is slowly showing why they cannot be trusted which they never should have been to begin with since they are providing false info without any proof

[risi]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-Rosen-Law-Firm-Files-bw-2444158989.html?x=0&.v=1

Who is suing who? Share holders suing ONP? Common!! This is Muddy Water's fault. There is nothing proven. This is some greedy law firm that is jumping on the band wagon with Muddy Waters to keep the bashing going. What scums. Let the truth come out with the audit and we will be back trading at $10 in little time. If ONP is proven to exaggerate their situation, then let them pay, but otherwise, please shut up! Stop wining and ride it out. That's the risk you take when you trade micro-caps moving into small cap territory.

I believe ONP will be vindicated and those who lost money wining and litigating over it will only keep themselves from seeing their money come back.

[Michael Anderson]

Muddy Waters has completely gotten rid of everything to do with ONP on their website. They are moving on. Obviously a reputable, which obviously they are not and never provided anything credible in the first place, research company would still publish all their reports and information on the covered companies. I am not surprised and shows everyone who was unsure, what a joke they have always been.

http://muddywatersresearch.com/index.php/research/

[Shengli]

I know but i have to put my resources into MNTA now.Its just as big a screamer as ONP was at 4.50 . Plus i had to ring the register to offset the beating i took in DJSP today.Maybe she will take a breather and i can get back on the train again . Good luck
Shen

[risi]

We're just getting warmed up as we get back to the $10 trading level.

[Shengli]

Had to ring the register on this one.Its probably still a double.
Good luck

[Shengli]

Wow
She is feeling good

[risi]

This stock now sits at the cheapest price I have ever seen a stock that has a bright future. We sit at 25% fair value (at $5.30)in my estimation which means 2 doubles from here. If we reach the level of year end estimates I have seen (1.25 EPS), we are well above 2 doubles at this level in value. I am sorry to you longs who have held through this unjustified bashing by Muddy Waters. They are scums of the highest degree and when the air clears, I believe you will be glad you held through this as we may well be trading at the $10 level again by the middle of next month. Total guess so do your own DD.

ONP - FAIR VALUE at 18% Annual Growth Rate
CURRENT EPS 1.05
Earnings Estimate next 5 Yrs 18
Number of Years takes to Double 4
Number of Doubles in 10 years 2.50
ESTIMATED EPS GROWTH RATE 2.63
ESTIMATD FUTURE P/E 36
Estimated PPS in 10 years $94.50
TODAY'S FAIR VALUE PRICE $23.63
MOS PRICE (50% of Fair Value) $11.81

ONP - YEAR END ESTIMATES at 18% Annual Growth
ESTIMATED YEAR END EPS 1.25
Earnings Estimate next 5 Yrs 18
Number of Years takes to Double 4
Number of Doubles in 10 years 2.50
ESTIMATED EPS GROWTH RATE 3.13
ESTIMATD FUTURE P/E 36
Estimated PPS in 10 years $112.50
TODAY'S FAIR VALUE PRICE $28.13
MOS PRICE (50% of Fair Value) $14.06

[Shengli]

ONP:Wall Street Media Presents Wells Fargo Securities Rich Gordon


Our Visit to ONP


http://wsmco.com/show.aspx?1688_Our_Visit_to_ONP

[Shengli]

I bought a bunch of this today. I think she goes much higher in the next few months

[risi]

I agree, this really is a great opportunity although these guys at MW are skums of the greatest kind. This is one of the few times I didn't get stuck in the tailspin. But having watched the tumble on the side lines and now being fully re-loaded, this really has become a no brainer for me. Once these issues clear, ONP will rebound nicely I believe.

[apries]

The shorts realized that the gig is finally up. The message board at Yahoo is going nuts too. Everyone is debunking Muddy Waters now. Carson Block and some helper of his (if not himself) named Waldo even tried to post more garbage today but everyone quickly rebutted it and badly too.

The people at yahoo not only discovered 20 other websites to Carson Block's name with similar methods of bashing small Chinese companies, but also found out that the research company he supposedly worked for (WAB, which he himself names in his report) is actually the address to his dads house - a small condo in California. It's pretty sad actually....they found his email address and everything.

Either way, earnings next week is going to be huge for the stock!! Deloittes, the company doing the investigation might even release some preliminary results which could easily send this right back to 9 or 10 once Roth and the other credible research companies get back on.

At first I was really angry at Muddy Waters, but to be honest, now I'm actually glad all this happened. It's such a huge opportunity. Mohnish Pabrai wrote about these high uncertainty, low risk chances we sometimes get and how they are the most profitable opportunities of all when certainty is restored. This is a prime example of one of those situations.

Good luck to all!!

[risi]

By the way, I am back in at around $4.50 average from yesterday. And now we're up nearly 10% since my post. Can anyone say "short squeeze?"

[risi]

More indication today that these guys at ONP want to re-assure investors that they are the real deal. I'm back in with long position and will take profits at around $9 when we double from here. When this investigation is over, and considering ONP is cleared, this one will be off to the races.

[risi]

I bought into ONP back when the stock was $.70 (or $2.80 after split). I saw great prospects here and rode it to $14+ and saw it moderate to $10. I sold all at that point and figured we would see some more moderation to about $7+ range and I would come back here and start entering back in. I wasn't paying much attention to ONP but when I saw the bottom drop out I starting reading a little. After spending some time taking a hard look at all things ONP, I am convinced Muddy Water's is a fraud. Those guys have accomplished their goal and I would think they have already made millions and now are hanging on to milk it for what-ever else they can get out of it. I entered back in recently on the latest drop back into the $4+ range. Sold for some quick profits and re-entered on the drop again yesterday. I will be establishing my long position again as well as taking advantage of the volatility at this ridiculously low price. I expect that by fall this one will at least be trading at double the present level.

[apries]

First of all, go to www.21cbh.com, (sina.com.cn's site is harder to navigate but I haven't found anything there either) click on English and search for Muddy Waters or ONP or Orient Paper, try any combination and take your pick. Then go back to the site in Chinese and try the same in that search bar (the names are in English in Muddy Waters alleged article). You will find nothing! Why don't you go look for these documents for yourself? Lest you be fooled by clowns.

Statements like "According to Muddy Waters' own translation of the 21st Century Business Herald article" are insidiously deceptive, you know Leafs? Who was the author? Who translated? Why isn't it on their site anymore? Who partook in the "survey"? what was it's composition? Because I'm sure it's not one billion Chinese people as Muddy Water's claims.

And what happened with NEP is a completely different situation. NEP is potentially being removed from the NYSE for not filing a required report on time due to previous errors in their financial statements whereas ONP is asking to be audited by a big four accounting firm. Why would ONP put up money to hire a firm of that caliber and formally file an 8-K informing investors that they are doing that if they were a fraud?

If you don't see the difference between these situations then by all means maybe you should stay away from Chinese stocks. Weigh the arguments before you accept them.

[Leafs007]

Wow! Another Chinese company under investigation...first it was NEP, now, ONP... i'm going to stay away from the chinese stocks...too much doubt going on; i suppose the naysayers were right...
------------------

According to Muddy Waters' own translation of the 21st Century Business Herald article, financials that Orient Paper provided to investors in response to Muddy Waters' allegations overstate profit and taxes paid by an operating subsidiary of Orient Paper by close to 400%. The article also alleges that the operating subsidiary's largest supplier, Dongfang Trading, is "a shell company that has virtually no recorded revenue the past two years."
"Our thoughts are that having a supplier that is a captive shell company makes it easier to produce documents that would fool the auditors," Muddy Waters wrote, adding that the article shows that paper industry experts told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that Orient Paper's claimed inventory turnover is "well above what is usual."

[apries]

Right McKinley, all of their "facts" are neatly packed into a long disclosure intended to relieve them of any legal action. Such methods are only used by the most scrupulous and well-intentioned investors just trying to present honest facts, regardless whether they present them "with no representation, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any such information" as their report says. Thank God for Muddy Waters Research, a two man company of analysts who... aren't really analysts. What would we do without their unbiased analysis? I mean their research at the airport while eating pizza had to have been flawless! Who cares that up to that point one of them thought a 10-K was a race? These are mere trifles when brought up against the weight of their strong reputation. You better believe it.

[MCKINLEY MORGANFIELD]

Is MuddyWaters a credible company???

you better believe it..

[03liuzhe]

Is MuddyWaters a credible company??? The same 2 guys stared a equity research in China 2 years ago but did not do anything for 2 years.
http://www.chinaprimer.com/equity-research/equity-research.html

yet in June 2010, they started Muddy Waters. How many research firms you need??? isn't one good enough?

What did they do for the 2 years? seems Carson Block is not just operating his self storage, but also teach people in China how to write in English. http://legalwritingshanghai.com/

Also in his linkedin page, he did not mention anything about his experience in the law firm, CIBC Worldmarket and the LA equity research firm, but in other pages he mentioned such experience.
http://cn.linkedin.com/in/carsonblock,

[Michael Anderson]

New very recent quality video of ONP from Wallstreet Media

http://wsmco.com/show.aspx?1688_Our_Visit_to_ONP

[Michael Anderson]

I realize now that they did not admit to stating wrong information, but that is one statement. The majority of their statements and analysis have so many holes and it is very easy to read their fraudulence.

[Michael Anderson]

It is easy to see right through Muddy Waters

Responses from Muddy Waters:
Reading through the latest response it is easy to see right through them and it is easy to see how fraudulent they are

"Yesterday we released a response to ONP’s press release stating that we had analyzed the wrong operating subsidiary"

-So they made a big deal that ONP is such a fraud and admitted to this large mistake, hmmmm

"I never worked for a Wall Street bank, and until the day at the airport, I thought a 10-K was a weekend race."

-very intellectual?

"While at the Hong Qiao Airport waiting to board a flight to Beijing, Carson and I started to browse through the 10-K and 10-Qs. I graduated from business school in 1992, and it had been a while since I looked over such documents. But we sat in that airport for about 8 hours and poured through the documents devouring every page and laughing with coffee and pizza. We couldn’t believe what we were reading."

-So they just started reading right there over the 10-k and 10-q's and couldnt beleive what they were reading, hmmm

"I felt the company was a sham and I wanted to help Rick out by telling him so; but, to do so was illogical"

-I am sure these guys know more than everyone else including Rick Pearon and if they thought something like they would not say something then, hmmm

"When my father first spoke with me about ONP, I was skeptical. The amount of money it intended to raise to expand its paper factory seemed excessive. I told him to assume that construction expenses would be padded – the question was to what extent. He told me that he was quite impressed with the CFO, Winston Yen. He also said that he had heard Chairman Liu is “different” from other Chinese company bosses in that he doesn’t drink, smoke, or chase women."

-odd statement and states skepticism without any knowledge of the company at that point in time which shows that this was pre-conceived and a well thought out rebuttal

On top of everything else, these two guys know more than everyone else and every other researcher or investor who has visited the company or spoke to management or has done the research, has never come up with anything fraudulent about ONP. It has scam written all over it, from top to bottom. Good luck.

[manatee]

Link to a video discussing Muddy Waters accusations against ONP.


http://wsmco.com/show.aspx?1677_The_Truth_on_ONP

[joenatural]

LOL. And I thought by selling the rest at $5.50 this morning pre-market, I'd get a chance at a re-buy, but that AH's article from yesterday was extremely powerful.

[mkinhaw]

Don t look now
nice trade though
MK

[manatee]

Thanks for the link Glen, owe ya the beer of your choice. Hopefully Muddy Waters describes their trousers after this plays out.

BTW, I added to my feebies for the first time today thanks to their hard work. I could have caught near the low of the day but after 8 years as a Marine I totally froze waiting for the carnage to play out. Oh well, live and learn, still like my new avg.

[thedivot]

Here's an article from someone else - Eric Jackson - who visited Orient Paper.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/198396-high-conviction-a-well-managed-chinese-small-cap-in-high-growth-mode?source=hp_wc

[joenatural]

Very nice, thanks. I took profits from $4.58 to $4.90

[bradford86]

A video taken by a
correspondent for TheStreet.com during our visit and available online

he was there, he says strong buy, these other guys say scam

where's the video?

http://www.sling.com/video/show/256675/98/Orient-Paper:-Growth,-Value-and-Mom?filter_by=videos&order_by=name&page=470&si_vv=detail

[joenatural]

Bought huge position at $4.20, as the stock is getting trashed on this response to ONP's response from yesterday in regards to these short sellers ........

http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/

But it's very very important to read this .......

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-Top-Pick-From-Our-China-tsmp-757056843.html?x=0&.v=1

[manatee]

A "former attorney" who's now in the self storage business and is a partner in a business called "Muddy Waters" is not my preferred form of DD. Even if ONP were to underperform, I certainly wouldnt place any faith with these guys and totally refuse to make an investment decisions based on what they say. It is remotely possible that they are sincere, and honestly, they have reportedly spent 90 minutes more with the company than I have, however, I have never asked ONP for money and they never offered any, so at least I have no agenda.

If anything, Ill wait for some sign that "Muddy Waters" starts going positive ONP, after their bashing campaign, so I can buy knowing that their, "international credentials and respect will have millions in dollar volume hinging on their every word" (LOLOLOL). Till then, "Muddy" just describes their tactics.

In any case, Im holding all freebies @ .30 from roughly a year ago and will hold whats left till something more substantial tells me the ride is over, at which point Ill disclose, sell and resign as a mod. Just remember, this company has had one hell of a run and the markets are in general very weak right now, play to match the conditions, too many people are getting creamed trying to catch falling knives.

[manatee]

I wouldnt pay for their research either. No credentials to support giving them money, either as a subscriber or the company being researched. Even their name tells you that they are all about trashing no matter what the actual facts show.

"Muddy Waters states in the report that they make no representation as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information they provided. Furthermore, Muddy Waters has no apparent history of providing credible independent research or any research for that matter as they state this was their "inaugural report" and even though their research is "available as a subscription service" to institutional investors and they are available for "confidential due diligence engagements" they were making an exception with this report which is being provided "free of charge."
According to their website, Muddy Waters consists of a two-person team that, based on a review of the bios on their website, has no apparent experience in the paper industry in or outside of China. In addition, the team only visited Orient Paper's facility once for 90 minutes after a major snowstorm."
"One of the team members is a U.S.-educated former attorney and owner of a self-storage business in Shanghai who is "proficient" in Mandarin. The other is a native Southern Californian who owns a business that "supplies products and materials to the global construction industry from China," and claims to have worked as an "equity analyst with a Los Angeles-based investment boutique" without naming the firm or the period of time he worked there or the position he held. "

When this team visited the Company's facility in Baoding they offered to write a paid-for research report on Orient Paper, but the Company declined their offer.


I bet if ONP ponied up for the paid-for research report they would have had a different opinion of ONP's business. Too bad that its way too easy to bash the less known stocks when the overall market is getting hammered, heck, almost all of them are going down right now. They need to try picking a loser when the indexes arn't getting pounded to get some creds before they go liable.

[BigOnChina]

I love that management for ONP came out today and defended their company and false accusations. This type of press release shows me that they care about their investors.

I'm a buyer.

[qbeagles02]

From Harbinger Research (no idea who they are):


"We believe industry factors will remain strong, and thus ONP
deserves at least a multiple of 10x our 2011 EPS estimate of $1.66. Therefore we rate the shares of ONP a Strong Buy, and set our 12-month price target to $16.60 per share.

...We have derived our 12-month price target of $16.60/share based on a 2011 forward P/E multiple of 10 times estimated earnings. Given that our 2011 earnings estimate of $1.66 per share represents a compound annual growth rate in EPS of approximately 26% (from year-end 2009 through year-end 2011), and given the strong long-term prospects of the Company, we believe a market multiple of 10x estimated 2011 EPS is actually fairly conservative, and believe significant upside to our price target exists. We therefore rate the shares of ONP a Strong Buy."

http://www.harbingerresearch.com/data/ONP%20Harbinger%20Research%20Report%204-22-10_258.pdf

[qbeagles02]

Article in seeking alpha interviewing Eric Jackson of Ironfire Capital what his highest conviction stock postion is: ONP


http://seekingalpha.com/article/198396-high-conviction-a-well-managed-chinese-small-cap-in-high-growth-mode?source=hp_wc

[manatee]

Yeah, I dont like the dilution either, however the pricing and terms of the financing should give a buffer from seeing the low pps range you suggest, however if those levels are reached and the fundamentals are similar, Ill be adding.