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note to self,,,ahh - for the good ol days...
when fundamentals mattered and these stocks outperformed - how long before they return??? months? years? decades?
sold SOLF after open...
as even though they did beat on top and bottom line - and raised guidance on revenue - they inherently warned on EPS. Made nice profit, although was hoping for the big score - will watch and look to buy back in a while.
SOLF earnings next week...
will be big for me. Holding and looking for them to beat on top and bottom line and raise guidance - not asking too much, huh - lol.
SOLF - still holding nice sized position...
and looking to keep into earnings and beyond. Think we'll see blowout numbers - but it's a risk.
got in SOLF quietly in 12-13 range...
and added around 14 - looking very good as of now.
sold WGOV as it had big...
run today - may be getting ahead of itself.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=6982
FIND RAPID GROWTH!
bought, sold and bought XFML...
and holding a fairly good sized position now - we'll see.
RCH was in tick tight bollinger bands...
and broke out for a double. Another one of the high IBD ranking recent Chinese IPO's. My biggest holding in these right now is XFML which is up considerably from where bought and I believe will have a big year.
NED posts a blow out quarter and raises...
guidance - unfortunately I sold all since was expecting this last quarter and they disappointed. Guess I was a quarter to early.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080515/cnth099.html?.v=1
WGOV hitting new 52 week highs...
have a boat load that plan to hold for a while:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/080515/newamer.html?.v=1
Old-Line Industrial Firm Discovers Profit Growth In Energy Efficiency
Thursday May 15, 5:48 pm ET
Paula L. Stepankowsky
The quest for clean, efficient energy is one of the hot investment themes of the past few years. Woodward Governor is right in the middle of it.
The Fort Collins, Colo., maker of electrical-power, engine and turbine systems is a key player in hot niches such as wind power and fuel-efficient jet engine production. It also is debuting products in demand as nations set stricter emission standards.
Its customers include the makers of jet engines, industrial equipment and trucks, and the Department of Defense.
While much of industrial America is in the doldrums, Woodward (NasdaqGS:WGOV - News) is posting revenue and profit growth more often seen in high-tech startups than in a company founded in 1870.
Course Changes
It avoided the fate of many other industrial companies by changing course whenever necessary to meet market demand, analysts say. The cheap dollar has helped by stimulating overseas sales, which now make up about half of overall revenue, vs. 42% in 2004.
"The company is extremely well-positioned," said Peter Lisnic, an analyst at R. W. Baird & Co. "It's a very nice defensive story, if you will, from the standpoint 20hat they are really tied to global infrastructure and aerospace."
Fiscal 2008 promises to be another year of strong revenue and earnings growth, a string that started in '04.
In the fiscal second quarter ended March 31, Woodward had net sales of $305.8 million, up 19% from $256.3 million in the year-ago period. Net earnings were $29.7 million, or 43 cents a share, up 48% from 29 cents last year.
Woodward officials weren't available to comment. But Chairman and CEO Thomas Gendron said in the second-quarter earnings statement that the company's success so far this year is due to money invested in past years to broaden Woodward's product and customer base.
"While overall macroeconomic uncertainty continues, our prior investments in geographic and market expansion provide us with a broader base for sales and growth," Gendron said.
The trend prompted Woodward to forecast sales growth of 14% to 16% for the fiscal year ending Sept.30, and earnings per share of $1.61 to $1.66.
If achieved, that would translate into revenue of $1.187 billion to $1.209 billion, compared with revenue of $1.042 billion in 2007, and earnings growth of 15% to 18.5% over the split-adjusted $1.40 a share earned in fiscal 2007. The stock split 2-for-1 on Feb. 15.
Analysts surveyed by First Call estimate that Woodward will earn a mean of $1.67 a share in fiscal 2008.
Fueling growth is global demand for power generation, which makes up for any domestic softening, wrote Tyler Hojo, an analyst for Sidoti & Co., in a recent report.
Hojo noted that in fiscal 2007, power-generation sales made up 40% of revenue; aerospace, 25%; transportation, 18%; defense, 10%; and process industries, 7%.
The fastest-growing segment in Woodward's portfolio continues to be its wind power business, part of its broader electrical power system business.
Wind power, long established in Europe, now is expected to make a significant contribution to the U.S. power supply as the price of oil and other energy sources escalates, analysts say. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that the wind energy market will expand 30% to 40% a year.
Since its acquisition of German company SEG in late 2006, Woodward has played a growing role in the wind power industry by moving into the power inverter business. Power inverters move electricity generated by wind turbines onto the power grid.
Woodward also is following the trend into India and China.
"As wind moves to those markets, these guys will try to chase it," said Michael Casas, an analyst with Kevin Dann & Partners.
Casas adds that the company will likely exceed its 2008 estimate of $100 million in wind-related revenue.
Wind-related sales boosted the company's total electrical power system sales to $64.9 million in the fiscal second quarter, a 43% increase from the year-ago $45.2 million. In all of 2007, electrical power system sales totaled $181.4 million.
The fuel-efficiency theme carries over into the company's turbine system division, which makes components used in fuel-efficient jet engines.
Woodward's parts are in General Electric's (NYSE:GE - News) GEnx engine, sold to Boeing (NYSE:BA - News) for its 787 and to Airbus for its A350. It also sells parts to United Technologies' (NYSE:UTX - News) Pratt & Whitney unit.
While the domestic airline industry is in turmoil, foreign carriers are in a better position to buy new aircraft. This will steady aircraft orders despite high fuel costs, says William Bremer, an analyst with Maxim Group.
Since Woodward is also in the spare-parts business, it will benefit as domestic airlines upgrade engines, even if they can't buy new aircraft right now, adds Bremer, whose company is seeking banking business from Woodward.
Turbine system sales in the second quarter totaled $147.5 million, an increase of 13% over the $130.8 million generated in the year-ago quarter. In all of 2007, turbine sales totaled $523.8 million.
Engine Systems
On the engine-system front, sales are strong as countries buy industrial engines and steam turbines for infrastructure, with more of them keeping an eye on emission control, says Lisnic, whose firm is also seeking Woodward business.
Woodward is entering new markets, such as Korea, where it has introduced a compressed natural-gas technology for vehicles. Analysts say this technology will likely spread to other Asian countries, including China.
Engine system sales in the second quarter were $125.8 million, a 14% increase from $110 million a year ago.
In all of 2007, engine system sales were $455.2 million.
Because of Woodward's strong second half last year, analyst say it could be challenged to maintain strong year-over-year comparisons if the U.S. economic slowdown trickles overseas.
But analysts believe the company would weather any downturn well, bolstered by a strong cash position.
IBD tops in the...
fastest growing EPS category of stocks under $10:
XINYUAN REAL ESTATE ADS (XIN) China-based real estate developer of residential projects that include multi-layer and high-rise apartment buildings.
62 9 99 +96 -- +80 +114 51 16 9.03 0.33 -45 179
LANDEC CORPORATION (LNDC) Packages fresh-cut and whole produce using polymer technology for retail grocery chains and the foodservice industry.
50 19 87 +89 -19 0 +13 7 15 8.11 -0.06 -23 152
CHINA ARCHITECTURAL ENGR (RCH) Manufactures specialty curtain wall systems for public works projects and commercial real estate.
64 31 96 +58 -- +700 +13 33 24 5.45 -0.07 -69 54
WEBSITE PROS INC (WSPI) Provides website publishing and management software and services to small and medium sized-businesses.
79 55 85 +54 +25 -7 +89 8 17 9.00 -0.08 44 208
BLUEPHOENIX SOLUTIONS (BPHX) Israeli provider of mainframe and distributed it infrastructure modernization services for enterprises.
63 12 95 +50 +62 +133 +33 15 13 8.55 -0.15 14 339
VANCEINFO TECH INC ADS (VIT) Chinese provider of outsourced software research and development, maintenance, testing and it services.
97 89 99 +48 +100 +167 +96 17 34 8.55 0.08 -34 70
CROSS A T COMPANY (ATX) Manufactures pens, mechanical pencils and refills under the cross name and sunglasses under the costa del mar name.
50 31 96 +41 -- +300 +11 7 19 7.95 0.01 79 41
CHINA FIRE & SECURITY GP (CFSG) Chinese manufacturer of industrial fire safety products and systems for iron/steel, power, and petrochemical companies.
72 32 99 +39 +33 +114 +50 41 15 8.50 -0.15 -58 128
CHINACAST EDUCATION CORP (CAST) Provides k-12 and post secondary distance learning and vocational, government, and networking services in china.
48 9 85 +39 0 +240 +15 8 15 4.11 -0.18 -42 61
GLOBECOMM SYSTEMS INC (GCOM) Manufactures satellite-based ground segment systems and provides satellite and microwave/fiber optic network services.
61 24 99 +37 0 +75 +48 12 12 8.88 0.14 -74 25
SPARTAN MOTORS INC (SPAR) Manufactures heavy-duty chassis/bodies used in fire trucks, emergency vehicles, motorhomes and other specialty vehicles.
71 30 95 +29 +55 +105 +85 21 10 9.39 0.15 87 547
PC-TEL INC (PCTI) Designs antennas, software-based radios and scanning receivers used to manage interference on wireless networks.
84 83 94 +27 +67 +117 +10 6 21 8.22 0.09 -16 93
COMPUWARE CORP (CPWR) Develops application delivery, service management, and it portfolio management software applications
55 30 91 +27 0 +27 -2 12 13 7.54 -0.14 68 5391
UA may be near a buy...
point IMO - with the new shoes coming out. I'm getting a pair this weekend - will likely wear them as much as I do my CRO(X)Cs.
XFML giving nice return now...
CROX - not so much but plan to hold for a while. One of the problems is that they darn things last so long - don't need to replace. Not a short term fad though and lots of expansion going on oversees. Believe it's heading back to $30 range before year end. Summer is the best season and signs I've seen are that sales are picking up - although just observational.
bought some ICOC here...
with best in group rating in technicals and lots of oversees exposure.
also picked up some UTVG in around $1.35.
latest buys all doing well...
must say that's a big change from Jan and Feb performance. HIMX, XFML, CROX, and WGOV making good money for me right now.
and then some...
bought a little more CROX at 17 to top off a nice size position now. Was in this last year and sold for nice profit - but way to soon. Great growth and have lots of pairs in this house. Been looking at some of the newer models and if this goes to around 25 for me - I'll get a couple pairs - one for work and another pair for play.
IBD rated
Just the kind of beaten down winner I love.
bought CROX and XFML...
CROX at 15.6 - company listed as best in group on IBD in EPS category.
XFML averaged in around $3 gets a 94 and an A in the prime ratings.
WGOV has IBD EPS rating...
of 94 and SMR of A. Accumulation/Distribution at E - which either means it's overlooked or people just ain't interested.
took a giant leap back...
into the market - as opposed to baby steps.
Liking WGOV here - solid play on Wind energy. Solar getting lots of attention - but those in the know - know that Wind energy is a much better investment at this time for the big energy companies that need to expand their generation in renewables to meet all the legislative requirements for renewable portfolios. OldPro very much involved in this stuff on a daily basis and get an earful from top execs at major power companies - Wind is in.
SPAR gets a best in...
group rating from IBD also - watching this one and doing DD. Seems like they gave a pretty rosy outlook which would buck the trend - likely what's holding it back.
NED - hoping for strong earnings...
Tuesday ---here's how IBD rates NED in fundamentals in the computer software education & entertainment software sector - which contains companies like Activision, Electronic Arts, etc.
Manufacturing....
Plastics.. very basic needs for all...
over the years, I notice we tend to project the future..
very sorry to hear that...
hope things turn around and better times are ahead.
Mind me asking what sector your business is in? real life examples are worth a thousand analyst estimates IMO.
I'm still with QID....
as I know my personal business, we begin to discuss layoffs.. not good! I see many layoff reports in the paper everyday now... won't be reported by feds until later.
We have been slowing since October.. high prices are just now taking full effect... customers are cutting back and doing things to curve consumption... We see no relief from high price commodities coming anytime soon.
Did I cheer your day? LOL....
words of caution...
and believe well founded. Not going gung ho - still only buying at bid and in smaller than usual increments. catching bottoms is my specialty though (at least it's what I'm most comfortable at) and believe some stocks are at or near bottoms. although i have canceled a lot of orders right after I place them over the last few weeks - something just won't let me follow through with big buys.
Seeing more re-fi's as will tax cut refunds are of help... but I think more bad new coming....and economy slowing down even more... higher food prices are coming... oil and gas will continue to pressure... we have not seen the layoffs that are coming... and unrest in South America will cause short term shuffle in oil supply... War will continue to put pressure on US oil price... Making very good defensive picks is critical right now IMO.... Sorry to be so negative but just my feelings... It will turn..
IBD changes market pulse to...
"market in confirmed rally" based on yesterdays strong performance on higher volume. First time it's confirmed a rally in months. Very bullish IMO and will start taking some more risk on.
HIMX beat on revenue and EPS...
getting nice lift AH. Almost bought it instead of BRLC a few weeks back - big dummy. BRLC tanks and sold for loss - HIMX was a much stronger stock and company - lesson learned for the 100th time - I hope.
new UA commercial in superbowl...
UA and BKC turned out to be...
good holds - so far at least. Keeping both for longer term.
BRLC - IBD rates EPS at...
74 and SMR at a very strong A. Stock is at 2.36 and in super hot LCD TV sector. Loaded up.
UA took the biggest plummet and...
is actually the one I like the most. Almost bought a bunch in around 28 and just couldn't pull the trigger - despite the fact that love UA products and will buy their new cross-trainer shoe as soon as it comes out in early May.
UA, BKC, SYNA all kicked...
booty today. sold SYNA since mostly bought due to overdone drop - still holding UA and BKC and feel like a wimp for not loading up when then went down - but it was scary out there - and still is.
SYNA had nice day...
and still has excellent, best in group rating by IBD:
got in SYNA today at...
23.9. IBD rates best in group in fundamentals - and company has strong growth, earnings and forecast. gap above where bought in so definitely think that at a minimum it fills the gap.
UA slammed and had previously sold bunch...
so spared lots of pain. Good thing I chickened out on holding after the report on retail sales being down. Watching close and plan to buy more - just not yet.
NED - hard to hold on to...
but still have some. seems like the buy of the year - or is it? Market has me questioning almost every move - which have to fight off - but it's tough. Plan to hold NED for long term - just can't seem to back up the truck. Makes me fee gutless - but could save my but t.
stuff on their graphing calculator - supposedly the only one being sold in China.
http://www.noahedu.com/dms/
ow, ow, ow - lots of pain...
and certainly getting my fair share from the IBDers. NED, UA and BKC all down. Holding on and hitting myself, but still think a bounce is coming. At least not on margin. Almost sold - but didn't.
maybe just wishful thinking...
in market like this, but NED chart showing set up for spike up, i.e., tight as a tick in the bollinger bands:
it's official, IBD says market...
in correction. no new buys for me for a while - until get signs of ne bull. not on margin right now, or would get off.
holding most, but may lighten up if things get worse. Market oversold for now - so expect bounce.
PEr IBD: "The market tumbled into a correction Friday as the Nasdaq took out its November lows.
A big wave of selling in the final half-hour of trading sent stocks to fresh session lows.
According to preliminary data, the Nasdaq sank 3.8%, its worst decline since Feb. 27, when it plunged 3.9%. The Nasdaq 100 cratered 4.3%. The S&P 500 fell 2.5%, the NYSE composite 2.3% and the Dow 2%."
IBD cahnged their merket sentiment to...
"under pressure". Good chance that we see "under correction" after today. may look for some shorts.
UA, BKC and NED all down...
which is painful - but goes with the territory. NED is China so any US downturn should have no effect - but negative sentiment spills over on a day like today.
UA...January Effect:
Many investors engage in "Tax Loss Selling" toward year-end in order to generate capital losses and lower taxable income. With the 2007 fiscal year ending, this process is brought forward - resulting in, we believe, a "January Effect"
Under Armour, a Potential Outperformer:
This sell-off of depressed stocks creates an opportunity for equity investors, in our opinion. We have screened for companies based on their drop from 52-week highs as well as fundamental factors. We think Under Armour is one such attractive candidate to be a potential "January Effect" outperformer.
The January Effect
With 2007 winding down we believe that it is time for investors to step back and reflect on the year-to-date performance of the U.S. equity market. Many investors have been, and are continuing to take the opportunity to sell off the weaker names prior to the end of the year in order to realize the losses on their 2007 tax returns. In the year-end rush to sell off depressed stocks, there is often the risk of throwing out the baby with the bath water. This tax-loss selling has the effect of heaping further losses on the backs of already weak stocks.
Many fundamentally sound companies with excellent prospects for future performance come under pressure in this wave of tax selling, simply as a result of their prior performance. Once the year-end selling ends, many stocks which have been unfairly driven down to excessively low prices get snapped up by sharp-eyed investors looking for a bargain. The increased demand for these stocks has historically been observed to lead to a subsequent pop, which has been dubbed the January Effect. Each year, we attempt to identify a group of stocks which may have the potential to participate in this bounce. As always, we have designed our screen to look for those stocks in the Citi Investment Research coverage universe that are down significantly, but otherwise appear to be sound.
We believe that the positive sentiment of Under Armor is evidenced by rising consensus 2008 EPS estimates in the face of continued economic uncertainty could benefit its performance.
Sector
Consumer Discretionary
UA Under Armour Inc.
Rating: Buy
Market Cap: 1,553.6
Price as of 12/20/2007: 43.95
52 week high: 73.40
P/08 E: 33.37
PEG: 1.27
ROE: 20.8%
I like BIDZ. So does sue over on the . . .whatever site it is that I've been frequenting.
Peace,
fastest growing EPS stocks under $10...
per IBD are:
BIDZ.COM INC (BIDZ)
S R S LABS INC (SRSL)
HEALTH GRADES INC (HGRD)
QIAO XING MOBILE COMM CO (QXM)
DICE HOLDINGS INC (DHX)
GLOBALSCAPE INC (GSB)
TONGJITANG CHINESE MEDS (TCM)
I X Y S CORP (IXYS)
P D F SOLUTIONS INC (PDFS)
SPHERION CORP (SFN)
C R M HOLDINGS LTD (CRMH)
ACTUATE CORP (ACTU)
like TPX which is best in group...
in fundamentals and has 95 and A rating in EPS and SMR. almost 100 mil shares out though. Typically like to see share count less than 50 mil or have substantial insider ownership.
but, this is a unique product and have looked into buying one of their beds myself - but haven't bought yet.
here's a list of IBD leaders...
that have compiled that were either recently under $20 range or showing very strong growth - have been watching all for possible entry (currently own NED and UA):
NED
SNCR
IBKR
IGLD
INWK
JOBS
NHWK
ACTU
EXLS
LHCG
AFAM
BPHX
UA
INWK is rated best in group...
in all categories. Waiting for pullback to buy - may not get. Originally found at around $14 and have tried to pick up on dips and so far have missed.
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