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CEF chart, nice breakout. Good way to play physical silver move until pureplay ETF comes out.
Yields fighting to break higher
Daily
Monthly
Euro threatening new ST lows
Euro daily channel
Should be supportive for gold ST as it's at the bottom on the channel currently.
NEM weekly pattern
Broadening falling wedge. Should break higher eventually as the reverse of this formation is bearish, but unclear as to when this might happen solely based on TA.
HUI multi-year breakouts
Ideally HUI should hold 200 on this pullback, but given COTs and the manner in which the PMs are acting relative to gold I suspect we'll breach this level by just enough to flush out those who trade solely on TA. 190-195 seems reasonable, but even a move down to 180 again would not suprise me if POG goes under 420 again which it could if the COT is proven correct. This should be a fast move down followed by a relatively fast move up as well (April 2005?). I suspect this will be the final shakeout prior to a very nice move in gold and PM stocks.
Going to hold a core thru this period as I'm uncertain of the ST targets, but feel relatively confident IT and LT.
Biggest concern continues to be an '87 type crash where everything gets liquidated. 2nd concern here would be that too much technical damage would be done ST on a move below 200 and that we could spend up to 2-3 more months testing/basing in the 175-200 range prior to the next really strong move.
Gold in Euros holding up well here after retesting breakout.
Gold/oil ratio.
Should be one of the better LT indicators that the next major wave up in gold stocks has begun. Would like to see the ratio get above 7.5 again before I get too excited about the turn being in place.
ANO breakout on Canadian side. No breakout yet on US side, but it'll come.
NEM Head and Shoulders?
Head and shoulders on the daily which would project down to 30-32 area. From a value standpoint and a multi-year chart view such a retrace would be very normal. Could still go either way, but at a min, NEM needs to break daily downtrend line.
NEM 2004 bottom vs 2005 bottom(?)
2005
2004
KGC 2005 bottom/uptrend
Looking at a couple things here. NEM needs to hold 38% Fib or 36.9 level on a closing basis. Ideally KGC should hold uptrend at 6, but not a requirement. KGC should be a leading indicator due to it's leverage. OBV for 2004 vs 2005 is somewhat worrisome and leads me to believe odds are better than 50/50 that NEM will make new lows before the year is over in the 30-32 range. Today/monday are critical days. Rally still intact while NEM holds 38% Fib though.
HUI breaking down
BB width set for big move. Probably to the downside given the action of gold/Euro of late. 180 is a good target, will rethink scenario if HUI holds 195 or gold breaks 410.
XAU/gold ratio, long term easily justifies a move up to .25
Say gold drops back to 430 ST and ratio steady improves to .25 we have XAU of 107 or 15% improvement potential with gold dropping $10, but an improvement in the sentiment/outlook of gold shares. Just a rough calculation to show that while gold does look toppy ST gold shares themselves are still cheap even with a $10 drop in gold. As such any ST correction should be shallow.
Euro/gold
Looking at the longer term chart it's much easier that the current action while encouraging is unlikely to be sustainable ST.
I think the EU news of late has given us a sneak peak of what will happen 1-2 years down the road when gold does start to rally globally again all currencies. I don't think we're there yet, but as always the depth of the pullback when it comes will give a much clearer picture. Those calling for sub $400 gold did so forecasting the Dollar moving higher and simply plotting the usual correlation. I myself thought that would also be the case. Given the correlation of late sub $400 seems less likely and new HUI lows more unlikely. Although I still favor one more period of weakness starting anywhere from 1-4 weeks from now and lasting till late July to late Aug. This is mostly for NA issues, I expect that SA issues will continue appreciate regardless as they are starting for an even better valuation standpoint and the Rand looks to have topped IT.
ANO looking ripe for a big move here. Interest non-existant. HMY and GFI seems poised for a big move which should lead the sector higher.
ANO 3 month trendline
2 year hovering right at 50 ema and lots of room to run just to trendline. Should be a good LT buy/hold here.
HMY chart 60 min and daily both fairly bullish.
Daily showing inverse H&S, bullish divergences on MACD and PPO, still above 13 ema and held and tested 50 ema recently, BB converging for big move
60 min showing correction to 50% fib holding.
Will only start to get worried if HMY closes under 7.4 again or under 50 ema. Rand also looks to have topped IT.
Retail holders looks good for a short.
In at 96.9. OBV ugly and other divergences apparent in chart. Not to mention consumer should be getting tapped out.
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