IAC Charts

[ItsAllCyclical]

SPX








Currencies











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VIX

[ItsAllCyclical]

Gold trendlines

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=14387949

[ItsAllCyclical]

HUI breakout



Target 400

NEM still w/in triangle



Gold chart initial breakout, but may fill gap at some pt. Still needs to breakout above previous uptrend support or at least take out 650 w/some zeal. Gold stock typically lead so it's likely gold will have a good Sept. (as usual per seasonality)



Added to the bullish picture are the facts that central bank sales are unlikely to meet their quota and juniors w/in the sector have been acting very well.

Gonna be interesting. Maybe gold stocks are smelling that gold is going to break to new highs later this year or early next. Break of 730 will likely lead to 800 test. I don't think it happens on this run, but ST we could have some fun before more consolidation sets in again.

[Newly2b]

CDE

Was watching that Cw/H on the Weekly since this spring, but there are a couple of problems with it that may cause it not to play out as expected. First of all, usual depth of the cup shouldn't exceed at max 50% of the preceding rise; here we have a cup depth of 76.4% . Secondly the low of the Handle should ideally be above the 200dma; here it falls below. The volume pattern across the formation looks good, however.

I am also watching that H&S Bottom you point out on the Daily, which looks like it could have better odds of playing out as expected and the volume pattern is right. The Cw/H on the Daily doesn't work because price has to rise up to the left side of the lip like on the Weekly, not fall into it as it does here, and IMO, it is too jagged to be a Rounding Bottom. All JMO, of course.

Newly

[ItsAllCyclical]

CDE - Take your pick of bullish patterns. Don't like this one as much from an FA standpoint as say GSS, but hard to argue w/these charts. Still needs to break above 5.5 for targets to come into play for sure, but by that time it's already run .20-.50. Positioned prior to breakout here.





A little early for this one, but...once the first targets get hit, then 10-12 IT/LT comes into play.

[ItsAllCyclical]

PFE looks pretty good IT. Been showing good relative strength of late. Positive divergence on the daily. Affirmed guidance this morning (upped it if you consider the pending asset sale). Breaking above 200 dma and downtrend channel. Good sector strength going forward w/slowing consumer. Added to existing position today (from mid 22's).



Could also be an inverse H&S in the making on the weekly. Once again positive divergence there as well.

[ItsAllCyclical]

Last on post on CWPC for a whille:

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22631421

[ItsAllCyclical]

CWPC article

Gaps down 10% this morn on this? What a hype job w/no institional support.

--------------------------------------

Casey Research Special Bulletin: Collateral Damage
May 17, 2006

CanWest is having a bad day. Here’s what we know.

Last Friday we received a call from a reporter from Forbes working on a story that, reading between the lines, seems to question whether or not the CanWest concession is, in fact, a legitimate oil sands play.

The nub of the issue, as we interpret it, has to do with one of the early investors in the company, back when it was early stage with a dream and a prayer of finding bitumen in Saskatchewan. (An entity owned by us, DCDG, LLC., was also an investor at that stage, but only with an inconsequential position -- view the company's SB-2 Registration Statement by clicking on this link: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1096791/000114420406014740/v040271_424b3.txt).

While it is only conjecture at this point, our interpretation is that Forbes is about to do one of its famous attack pieces on this particular financier (who has nothing to do with the day to day running of CanWest, by the way) and by extension CanWest. Looking at today’s price action, we can only surmise that word of the pending article is getting around and those in know are trying to get out while the getting is good. In the same way that CWPC has risen in near meteoric fashion, it now looks set to come off substantially. Remember, the reverse side of a hockey stick is just as steep as the front.

What’s the smart move here? Run for cover, or view the sell-off as a buying opportunity?

After listening to the reporter, we believe his initial understanding of the CanWest property is a misunderstanding. Starting with the fact that the financier in question is simply just another investor in the company, and has nothing to do with its management. While many reporters write their stories in their minds before setting a word to paper, then ignore everything except confirming facts – and that well may be the case here – our sense is that this particular reporter is doing his homework. Hopefully between now and press time he’ll get the data he needs to clear up his concerns. If not, and if CWPC is painted with the same negative brush as the companies actually managed by this individual, then the fall-off in CWPC that began today could continue until after the full impact of the article is felt, which will be after it hits the stands in a week or so.

While the prudent thing to do is to pull your original investment out of the stock, and that is a perfectly reasonable thing to do, after double-checking our original work, we remain confident in the company’s new management team and the merits of its underlying assets. As a result, we’re holding on to our shares, and will look upon any continued fall out from the Forbes article to create an excellent speculative opportunity for a second bite at the apple.

Let me stress again that this is still largely in the realm of conjecture. At press time the reporter was still very much in research mode, so there is a good chance he’ll discover the CanWest story, as attention-grabbing as it has been, is completely legitimate and will leave it out of his broader story. In which case, we would expect to the stock to rebound, high and fast.

If you sell now, and some newer subscribers may even be selling at a loss, and there is no story, then you could well miss the turnaround and have to buy back in at higher prices. If he persists in putting CanWest into his story, and the stock takes a further hit as a result – possibly sending it below the $6.00 mark -- then buying more makes a lot of sense to us.

As with all investments, whether you stay, go, or buy more will be more a function of your psychology and personal financial situation than anything else. As just mentioned, we are confident enough in our work that we are holding, and will look to buy with both hands once it looks like CWPC has bottomed.


We’ll keep you posted on this drama as it unfolds.

David Galland
Managing Director
Casey Research, LLC"

[ItsAllCyclical]

CWPC breaking down again



Not a pretty chart.

[ItsAllCyclical]

OK, TA wise only CWPC breaking out on 30 min chart. Added w/overall basis at 7.18.

[ItsAllCyclical]

KGC breakout - cup-n-handle as well as trendline meassure to $15+ likely getting hit on this move.

[ItsAllCyclical]

CWPC more points of view...

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22370198&srchtxt=cwpc

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22390775&srchtxt=cwpc

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22384752&srchtxt=cwpc

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22374095&srchtxt=cwpc

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22362279&srchtxt=cwpc

If you want the real dirt on oil sands plays this is the thread.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=55547

I suspect that if CWPC was Canadian listed as well it'd be far lower in market cap most likely as there would be more competition for investment funds. If you want value open a Penntrade account and trade the Canadian issues directly of which there are far more choices in the small/mid cap area.

I'm not short CWPC for the record. Just find the "promotion" surrounding this stock to be very interesting.

[ItsAllCyclical]

CWPC good stock or good story?

For now this momo favorite still has a constructive chart, but a bit lower and it should break hard to the downside.



This should be a red flag for anyone who is long.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=CWPC.OB

New figures should be out soon. Will be interesting to see if this changes at all.

Rather surprised they haven't issued more shares at these lofty prices considering the company is bleeding cash and is expect to do so for a long time to come.

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/060322/cwpc.ob10qsb.html

>> In total the Company experienced a net loss of $19,725,307 or $0.27 per share for the nine months ended January 31, 2006, compared to a net loss of $3,916,775 or $0.14 per share for the nine months ended January 31, 2005. The Company expects to continue to incur operating losses and will continue to be dependent on additional equity or debt sales and or property joint ventures to fund its activities in the future.

We have no revenues, and our operating results, profitability and future rate of growth depend solely on our ability to successfully implement our business plan and our ability to raise further funding, as well as OQIs ability to raise funding for its projects. We currently have approximately $20,700,000in cash on hand which we plan to utilize for current and or upcoming exploration programs and general working capital purposes. It is expected that the Company will continue to need further funding and we plan to fund future operations by way of joint venture agreements and or other forms of financing, including the public offering or private placement of equity or debt securities. However, we cannot assure you that joint venture partners, debt or equity financing will be available to us on acceptable terms to meet these requirements. The Company has no revenues. <<

Hard to find anyone to talk about this stock in terms of real numbers. So far it's just a story, but of course those are the best kind of stocks to pump to the public. Remind anyone of 1999? Stocks w/no revenues were able to run the furthest since there was nothing to meassure them by.

There may be something to this company, but right now it's hard for anyone to really know.

As an example you get comments like this:

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22378335&srchtxt=cwpc

>> Just got back. See another CWPC add filled @ $6.88. Now a
250% position. Largest in my entire career which goes back to 1973. <<

But there's no substance. If the story is so good where's the details. Instead you get post after post of buying the dips. Always buying the dips. 30+ years of investing experience and this is really as good as it gets? A BB stock that can't be valued on a true fundamental basis and is losing money? Surely there's got to be better stocks on a risk/reward basis.

Will be an interesting story to watch how it unfolds. I can't say for sure that's it's overvalued as there simply isn't enough information out in the public, but it sure looks speculative with a market cap near $500 million.

[ItsAllCyclical]

Homebuilders

[j45557639,y]&r=5368>

For some reason trendlines not showing. Continues to flirt w/H&S top. Right at neckline.

[ItsAllCyclical]

DROOY update



Hard to believe it's still 1.7 with 640 gold, but there it is. Should accelerate once 1.75 taken out with min target of 2 and likely target around 2.25+ ST.

Looks dirt cheap here.

[FinancialAdvisor]

Good sector, feels better to play than the oil & natural gas plays at this point in time, morally correct I believe.

[ItsAllCyclical]

Renewed interest in Fuel cell sector



Took position in MCEL at 1.6 and 1.75. Been buying heavy the past 2 days. I like what I see in terms of their products, road to commercial viability, managment, and business partners.

Technicals and short interest look nice too. I suspect we'll ramp up to 2.5 or higher sometime in the next 6 months. I'll probably sell some and then hold the rest a few years as this looks intersting LT.

[ItsAllCyclical]

Update on gold/oil ratio

[ItsAllCyclical]

GSS relative to gold ETF

[ItsAllCyclical]

HUI - Latest trends



Already at a new high. A break back above this trend for more than 2 days should lead to an acceleration of the existing trend.

[ItsAllCyclical]

GSS relative to gold - 3 yr chart



Knowing the FA this chart screams great risk/reward for patient investors.

1 year target 5-6
2 year target 8-10+

Downside potential of 2.5 ish if gold goes sub 520-500 again.
Downside to 2 ish if gold goes to 425-450 (unlike now imho).

Ultimately gold is going above 800 again (minimum by 2010) so just wait.

[ItsAllCyclical]

Gold ETF trends



Another $5-10 higher and things could get explosive again.

[ItsAllCyclical]

GSS put/call info from latest 10-K

Put and Call Options

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/060329/gss10-k.html

We purchased gold put options ("puts") during 2005 to provide down-side gold price protection for a portion of our expected gold sales spread equally over the Bogoso sulfide expansion project construction period. This action reduced the risk of reduced cash flow from operations during the construction period that would otherwise have occurred as a result of a drop in gold prices. We sold call options ("calls") to offset the cost of a portion of the puts.

Each put gives us the right, but not the obligation, to sell an ounce of gold to a counter party on a specified future date at a contractually agreed upon strike price. Each put has a specified expiry date. The strike price of the put is set at a point below the spot market price on the date the put is established. The closer the put strike price is to the spot market price, the higher the cost of the put. We paid an average of $7.10 per ounce for the puts purchased in the second quarter of 2005 locking in an average strike price of $409.75 per ounce when the spot market price was between $427 and $429 per ounce.

A put, in effect, becomes an insurance policy that guarantees us a minimum gold price on ounces covered by the puts. Through our puts we have guaranteed that we will receive at least $409.75 per ounce for 140,000 ounces to be sold during 2006 and early 2007. If, on the expiry date, the spot market price is above the put strike price we will allow the put to expire unused. We are not required to deliver gold to cover a put.

Each call obligates us to sell an ounce of gold at a specified future date to a counter party at a contractually agreed upon price. If the spot market gold price exceeds the call strike price we will receive only the lower call strike price on ounces covered by the calls. We sell calls to and receive payment from a counterparty. If the counterparty declines to exercise the call on its expiry date (i.e. the spot market price of gold is below the calls strike price) the calls expire unused with no additional financial impact.

In the third quarter of 2005, we bought an additional 90,000 puts and at the same time sold 90,000 calls. The strike prices of the calls and the puts were set so that the revenue on the sale of the calls exactly offsets the cost of the puts, and thus no cash was required for the transactions. The strike price of the puts was set at $400 per ounce and the calls at $525 per ounce. At the time that these puts and calls were acquired the spot price of gold was between $424 and $440 per ounce.

Puts acquired in the second quarter of 2005 and outstanding at December 31, 2005 expire as follows: 90,000 in 2006 and 22,500 in 2007. Puts and calls acquired in the third quarter of 2005 expire at a rate of 5,000 per month between October 2005 and March 2007. In December 2005 we repurchased calls on 15,000 ounces at an average price of $4.13 per covered ounce. The repurchased calls were for December 2005 and January and February 2006.

Derivative accounting rules require that at the end of each period, the remaining unexpired puts and calls be revalued to their mark-to-market fair value (the price at which we could sell the puts or the price at which we could buy back the call options). The initial mark-to-market value of the puts was equal to the price we paid for them. The mark-to-market values at December 31, 2005 decreased because gold prices rose after we bought the puts thereby making it less likely that the floor price established by the puts would provide a future benefit. The $0.9 million decrease in the mark-to-market value of the puts as of December 31, 2005, has been recorded in our Consolidated Statement of Operations. The remaining fair value of the puts at December 31, 2005 was $0.1 million.

If the gold price were to fall in the future, the mark-to-market value of the puts would increase since it would be more likely that the floor price mechanism in the puts would provide an economic benefit. In such a case we would recognize a gain equal to the increase in the mark-to-market value of the puts.

The value of the call options is also marked to market each period in a manner similar to the put options. The only difference is that the mark-to-market value would be based on the price we would have to pay to the counter party to buy back the call options. As gold prices increase, the value of calls increase. The fair value of calls (the price we would have to pay to buy back the calls) was $2.3 million as of December 31, 2005 and we recognized a non-cash expense of this amount in our Consolidated Statement of Operations for the increase in the buy-back cost. It is noted that the mark-to-market fair value will be brought back into revenue in the statement of operations over the next 15 months.

[ItsAllCyclical]

GSS 2006 guidance

Looks pretty good. Any dilution should be relatively small.

---------------------------

2006 GUIDANCE

Looking forward, the forecast for 2006 total production is approximately 300,000 ounces at an average cash operating cost of about $335 an ounce, benefiting from a full year's production at Wassa and the first production from the Bogoso sulfide expansion project. The 2007 forecast of approximately 500,000 ounces at an average cash operating cost of about $335 an ounce is based on a full year's production from the Bogoso sulfide expansion project.

Production at Bogoso/Prestea in the first quarter is expected to be about 20,000 ounces and is expected to gradually increase in the second and third quarters and to substantially increase in the fourth quarter as a result of the commencement of new production from the Bogoso expansion project. Cash operating costs at Bogoso/Prestea are expected to be high in the first quarter and to gradually improve through the subsequent quarters, averaging about $330 per ounce for the year.

Production from Wassa is expected to be about 24,000 ounces in the first quarter and is expected to gradually increase through the year as a result of increasing throughput and grade. Costs are expected to be high in the first quarter and to reduce in subsequent quarters as a result of lower strip ratios and higher gold production.

We anticipate total capital spending of approximately $155 million during 2006, with approximately $89 million of this expected to be used to complete the Bogoso sulfide expansion project. Cash on hand stood at approximately $89.7 million at December 31, 2005. At current gold prices (approximately $550 per ounce) we expect both Bogoso/Prestea and Wassa to generate positive operating cash flows in 2006. In March 2006, we sold our shares in Moto Goldmines which resulted in net proceeds of $38.9 million.

We are currently negotiating with banks to set up a $30 million revolving line of credit that could be drawn on if needed.

[ItsAllCyclical]

DROOY bumping up against LT resistance. Could set the stage for a retest of the 2 area if it can close above 1.55 again. Good hold for a 2+ year time frame.

[huesos]

Beautiful picture. The two year time frame you mention seems realistic unless some public participation in the sector ala 2003 returns. That's going to lift all these forgotten entities. Probably even DROOY.

[ItsAllCyclical]

GSS Canadian side - Clearer picture of current action

[ItsAllCyclical]

Gold daily trends




Suggests that if we break 535-540 area on a closing basis that we'll probably see 510-500 retest. NEM already priced for those levels (or lower)

[ItsAllCyclical]

Commodities starting to break down?

[ItsAllCyclical]

DROOY update - retest of ST highs now?



Gold in Rand terms in threatening to break to new highs.

[ItsAllCyclical]

GSS ready to retest ST highs. Good buyout canidate for NEM.



Production ramping up to 500 oz level by 2007. Very cheap, but not crazy about management.

[ItsAllCyclical]

DROOY latest trends - 1.25 here we come...

[ItsAllCyclical]

HUI - latest trends



50 ema and daily trend line suggested that a good bounce could/should be had at these levels, but thus far nothing.

[ItsAllCyclical]

Yen currency - current downtrend channel



Given the potential size of the Yen-carry trades this might be one of more important charts out there ST, IT.

2 year comparison of yen vs gold

[j44096527,y]&r=3076>

&r=1845>

[ItsAllCyclical]

ECA latest trends

Looks like it's heading lower. Great long term buy, but as always would like to get the best ST price.



Meassure rule for above pattern and weekly chart suggest possible low 30's sometime in '06.

[ItsAllCyclical]

WTZ vs NG

&r=1982>

[j67329745,y]&r=5486>

Weekly comparisons

&r=1397>

&r=0348>

[ItsAllCyclical]

Update on ANO



Patience seems to be all that's required.

[ItsAllCyclical]

Update on Gold in Yen terms

Assuming Yen/Dollar ratio stays the same (big assumption), then the chart below shows the approx support pts. Interesting that these support pts correspond pretty well with support levels in US Dollar terms as well.



Weekly uptrend not broken yet, but certainly a chart that has plenty of room on the downside

[ItsAllCyclical]

Double top forming in Yen/Gold



At least in the ST if this does prove to be a double top and head signifcantly lower I suspect gold in US Dollar terms will follow. Coxe has made the stipulation that much of the physical buying for this last rally came out of Japan due to the Yen falling. I tend to agree that it's a factor. How much I can't say Not sure if this will be an IT or just a ST top, but right now this would equate to a top in US Dollar terms around 570.

[ItsAllCyclical]

Novagold cup 'n handle formation




How can this rally be over w/NG not making new highs. Best explorer play bar none for quality and upside potential.

[ItsAllCyclical]

Comparison of gold, hui, and oil

HUI and Gold

[j63762673,y]&r=7022>

[j63762743,y]&r=4149>

HUI and Gold/Oil

[j63762673,y]&r=7022>

[j63761519,y]&r=4390>

Long term gold/oil ratio




HUI and HUI/Gold ratio

[j63762673,y]&r=7022>

[j63765358,y]&r=7825>

[ItsAllCyclical]

Comparison of HUI to Gold/Oil ratio





Not a perfect fit, but still fairly compelling. Best moves were of course linked with a rising gold price relative to oil 9 (with gold rising as well of course). Makes sense on two levels: expanding margins for the miner's as well as lower oil relative to gold corresponds with periods of declining economic activity (typically).

Gold/Oil ratio at 15 years lows just recently. I think the ratio has more room to run IT and especially LT.

--------------------

Comparison of HUI and gold itself





---------------------

Weeky gold/oil ratio 15 years

[ItsAllCyclical]

Update on GBN



Breakout, retest and another break higher. This should finally signal liftoff, but tax selling may keep it depressed relative to it's peers for a few more weeks (unless things get bubbly).

[ItsAllCyclical]

Update on gold/oil ratio



Certainly improving, but a long ways to go yet before the miners really start to enjoy increased profitability at currently gold levels.

[ItsAllCyclical]

(edit - eom)

[ItsAllCyclical]

Latest HUI trends.



Until these trends resolve, why the rush to invest?

[ItsAllCyclical]

S&P 500 in Euro terms



Strong Dollar has helped the S&P over the last year, but once it heads lower again we should see the next major move down breaking previous support.

[ItsAllCyclical]

KGC at critical pt

[ItsAllCyclical]

XNG - Looks like nice bottom forming.





Gift ST play, not sure yet about IT

[ItsAllCyclical]

DROOY getting ready for another run.



1st target around 1.60+ with potential to overshoot to 1.75 to 2.25 area.