Hurricane Stocks (HSTOCKS)

[bbotcs]

littlejohn: Thanks for the update. There would be some pretty big gusts on the left side of a Cat 4 100 miles out. Lots of business for roofers.

[DOLLARLAND]

I've been bidding .005 for NSMG since the open with no bites yet.

[chevdawg18]

Updated track from NHC 1 hr ago shows major hurricane landfall in southern North Carolina. 1st landfalling major since 2005 for USA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/001914.shtml?5day#contents

[crynik]

IRENE misses florida and a little wind and rain on east coast...

sorry pumpers..you are all hurricane bagholders on this one..

maybe another comes along...

[DOLLARLAND]

I think the biggest threat from Irene is going to be damage to real estate, and that is why I favor NSMG and IPII. BUGS seems like more of a Gulf of Mexico Cane Play, since they are more of an environmental cleanup company (if they can even get the contracts).

[chevdawg18]

Yall ready for today? Irene is now forcasted to become a Cat IIII by the NHC. we may, just may see a CAT IIIII here.

One interesting possibility if this goes due north like many models are suggesting once inland, it will go over Raleigh, DC, Philly, NYC, NE as a Cat 1 or 2 Hurricane. Frankly that may be the best work for these hurricane plays. Not complete destruction but destruction enough to where people have to rebuild parts of their roofs/homes. Who knows what mother nature does but keep in mind companies like NSMG had their business go up like 10x after Katrina so PR's about landing contracts and these stocks would go nuts. bring some truth to the hurricane aspect of their stock.

[littlejohn]

Models could move back west some that are on the west side of the projection cone for Irene in the late part of the forcasts...

Irene is north of all earlier projections...So the storm could approach the steering ridge earlier than expected which is expected to force the entire north turning later in the forcast...

Being larger could also slow movement that may have been projected and that could offset the already more northern positioning than from early forcasts...LJ

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_verify.html

[littlejohn]

Here is a historical August track for cat 1 and cat 2 canes...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_climo.html

Irene could become the closest to come near the east coast of Florida in August and not make landfall...LJ

[Crazy Money]

Category 5 is also possible... it missed all the land it was supposed to hit except Puerto Rico where it actually became a hurricane as exiting... that did not diminish it at all... but also another reason that it will probably miss Florida and go up the coast... a weaker storm would have gone more west first... unless something changes probably will miss Florida could be the first MAJOR hurricane hit for the US since 2005 though...

[Crazy Money]

GFDL been to the left the whole time... had it going into the Gulf in past... keeps moving right... but the national weather service obviously does take that computer model into consideration... for the left side of their track...

[littlejohn]

Warm water, hot climate, upper level wind movement, and wind shear all have to be run thru the complex computer models...LJ

current wind shear...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

upper level winds...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=wvir&zoom=&time=

[DOLLARLAND]

It has a lot more time over warm waters - Cat. 4 seems very possible.

[littlejohn]

GFDL model's most important use is to estimate intensity...

The model runs that come a few hours after estimates from the location about mid day Tuesday should start generating more concensus between the models on tracking expected...LJ

[DOLLARLAND]

GFDL, Cat. 4, So. Fla. SCARY!

[g-ianni]

we go through this every year, fortunes have been made in the stock market on other peoples misfortune. it's life.

[Rainer]

Preying on hurricanes, huh? What will you do if, god forbid, Irene misses the US? How about a little class, guys.

[chevdawg18]

Gonna be a crazyyyyyyyy day in Hurricane stocks tomorrow

[chevdawg18]

NHC now projecting 6MPH shy of Cat IIII major status now. that is beyond scary. that destroys lives

WTNT44 KNHC 230029
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
830 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND
MAXIMUM OF 106 KT ON ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF IRENE.
BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 85 KT.
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE
HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH NO EYE IS VISIBLE YET
IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. HOWEVER...AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR AND WAS ALSO SEEN IN A 2230 UTC SSMIS
PASS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 981 MB BASED ON A
DROPSONDE OBSERVATION OF 982 MB WITH 10 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE.
GIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD BY
15 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A SMALLER UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AT 48 AND
72 HOURS. ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
NEW FORECAST NOW SHOWS IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON AIRCRAFT
DATA AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST.

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0030Z 19.7N 68.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND

[littlejohn]

GFDL model moved east some but its track still shows more impact from the left side of Irene for tip of southeast Florida than other models at 3 days out...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2011082218-irene09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=078hr

How much the winds can gust on the left side a 100 miles or so from a cat 4 cane doesn't seem to be anything to underestimate until it passes...LJ

[Drugdoctor]

For real stocks with a great hurricane play history, check out IPII and ABIX.... IPII ran into the 30 dollar range in 2005 Katrina.

ABIX is very profitable and only has about 5 million shares outstanding.

[g-ianni]

Irene Cat-2
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[Deewar25]

was mine too until last year - besides 1 brief runup that quickly corrected it was a death trap (I know cause I was stuck in it). Big difference as there is nothing that really connects them to Florida and Pinnacle Roofing anymore. That was where the hurricane angle always came from during Katrina years and beyond, but they got kicked out of the state and no longer BBB compliant and if anything, may have some kind of hail damage operation up in Colorado and nothing else.

BUGS isn't factually great either so its pretty much follow the volume at this point. I only have shares of BUGS between those two, but personally, I will stick with GV as the real hurricane investment. They made big earnings with Katrina and with offices in South Carolina and Florida, they can and likely will see true business from any landfall and the share price will be more than just a brief pump up. Any business spinoff PR and I think it goes at least to $1, and $2 wouldn't surprise with only 22m float and no history of dilution. It's trading way below book right now.

[atotalbum]

NSMG builds strength with the hurricanes and usually makes a real bullish move up BUGS is highly manipulated trades lil funky but still good stock to trade. Ive traded these for yrs.. and know them well.. NSMG, Ive seen this soar past .04 when hurricanes come.. NSMG is my fav but u never know with the penny NSMG can turn into a beast though..gl

[Deewar25]

right you are - I actually didn't see they woke up again at least in filing - still doesn't look like there is a pulse and just a history of fly by nights and heavy debt, but its better than nothing. Liquidity quite a bit better with BUGS at the moment so not as big of a bag holding risk but both should do fine with continued US landfall risk

[atotalbum]

NSMG, you see the last filing abt a month ago? they are still around...all BUGS has is patents.. I play both..but NSMG still around from what I see, and trust me it can move should easily hit .01 if hurricane hits..gl jmho

http://www.otcmarkets.com/otciq/ajax/showFinancialReportById.pdf?id=55556

[bbotcs]

Thanks, Hegotgame. UVE is a stock I used to own. Forgot about it. A real crapshoot, though.

[murocman]

Thoughts on AAAA.OB? It's a Florida-based insurance adjustment company. They could get very busy if Irene hit FL.

GLTA,

Murocman

[Hegotgame]

UVE is one to watch.

Florida insurance company that gets beat down every year about this time. However if there is an actual hit, UVE will most likely get crushed. Watching to get in real cheap, and hoping for NO hit.

[bbotcs]

littlejohn: The storm I was thinking of was Hugo, which, after trashing some Carribean Islands, made landfall as a Cat 4 storm at Isle of Palm, South Carolina, in September 1989. It will be interesting to compane Irene's track with Hugo's.

[bbotcs]

littlejohn: Now that map reminds me of Jorge? that hit Charlestown, South Carolina after trashing Puerto Rico.
I have to do some Googling to find out the name of that storm and the year.

[bbotcs]

littlejohn: That model is scary. If it turns out to be correct, you cannot rule out a crossover into the Gulf.

[littlejohn]

ECMWF forcast for Saturday afternoon for Irene...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2011082212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr

Sources report the model has been a top forcasting model for the last couple of years...LJ

[littlejohn]

GFDL forcast for Friday afternoon for Irene...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2011082212-irene09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=084hr

This is the model causing the cautious approach until more time and model agreements come together...LJ

[Deewar25]

yeah, but BUGS exists and NSMG doesn't...that has to factor in to your choice! I think BUGS is the obvious sub penny favorite.

[chevdawg18]

yeah but at this point NSMG is only up 50% and BUGS is up 133% lol.

tough call at this point cause i like both for different reasons. really am impressed with BUGS's volume though. NSMG will trade weird and jump fast though. like .004 to .007 in minutes. BUGS on the other hand is a real trader

[g-ianni]

bugs the better play.imho look at L-2

[DOLLARLAND]

I do have about $500 available today - I'll try getting a few NSMG and will add if I can tomorrow.

[littlejohn]

GV should be there when the music stops...

RGMI has been quiet since the last Florida impact...been awhile...

https://www.myfloridalicense.com/LicenseDetail.asp?SID=&id=9AF9C261A494DC7735709B947998B8AE

Will have to monitor old South Carolina and North Carolina liscenses next week for any activity...

Still some time to see if GV will get the calls this weekend...LJ

[Deewar25]

there are old favorites that get the quick pump (ie, bugs/nsmg) - we all know that bugs likely gets nothing from this, but at least 'could' if there was a significant disaster and shoreline cleanup was needed...nsmg doesn't exist anymore, so its a pump for the hell of it (which can also be successful). Both those 2 can have the bottoms drop out quick, but heck, could also do an easy 500-1000%. I like GV in that you don't risk a 50% haircut, and its well below fair value, and even after a minimal hurricane comes ashore, they have great possibility of real work and continued move (probably the only stock that can truly say that with a cat 1 or less). While it may not have the exciting move in the next few days, it could see a push $1-2 after the fact while the wannabees just crash right back down (saw that enough with NSMG last year).

BTW, I am in bugs as well, but nsmg almost wiped me out last year, so I am not entertaining that any more.

[chevdawg18]

noooooooo thats too bad. im still buying at these levels and am impressed by both so far. im frankly shocked with all the volume BUGS is doing. thats remarkable for day 1. NSMG just broke the big resistance at .004 - this could see .01 in short order.

all in all an excellent day 1 - hopefully they dont run to high for you today into the close if you want to enter tomorrow for the EOD push as the floats are really just getting bought up today

[DOLLARLAND]

Good call - I haven't bought anything yet. No funds available until tomorrow.

[bbotcs]

HD is my hurricane stock, sad to say! EOM

[bbotcs]

Article with pictures: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2028553/Hurricane-Irene-hits-Puerto-Rico-US-mainland-sights.html

[littlejohn]

True but the cane pumps that don't have maps to impacted areas generally get the most activity...

Its just the way the games are played...LJ

[chevdawg18]

NSMG .0045 NHOD - first break of that level since early july

[g-ianni]

very low o/s on bugs and nsmg.

[chevdawg18]

BUGS .0036 NHOD up over 125% so far on day 1

Monster volume coming in and look for a close above .004 and a move to .01 shortly this week.

[chevdawg18]

NSMG kabooom starting to breakout .004 new highs

Look for a .005+ close and .01 going into tomorrow IMO as the float gets eaten up with buyers

[chevdawg18]

NSMG .003 BUGS .0022

[g-ianni]

bugs on the move ladies and gents up 46%.