NHC now projecting 6MPH shy of Cat IIII major status now. that is beyond scary. that destroys lives
WTNT44 KNHC 230029 TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 830 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011
THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 106 KT ON ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF IRENE. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 85 KT. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH NO EYE IS VISIBLE YET IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. HOWEVER...AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR AND WAS ALSO SEEN IN A 2230 UTC SSMIS PASS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 981 MB BASED ON A DROPSONDE OBSERVATION OF 982 MB WITH 10 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD BY 15 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A SMALLER UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AT 48 AND 72 HOURS. ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW FORECAST NOW SHOWS IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST.
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY.
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