Hurricane Stocks (HSTOCKS)

[bbotcs]

Looks like Irene will be a player by Friday morning if she stays east of those Dominican Republic mountains. My money is on eastern Florida. Prediction: After reading this a.m.'s NOAA report, I think she'll be a big one--CAT 3 minimum. JMOPINION.

[bbotcs]

littlejohn: The mainstream media is giving scant coverage to these storms.

[Deewar25]

Still say GV best hurricane angle stock out there for this - offices in Florida and South Carolina have this risk area totally covered and they saw significant work spinoff from cat 1 of Katrina. They are also well undervalued on paper as well. Landfall could see 0.50's here (barely book value), PR for work over $1. The rest are hype for anything under cat 3.

[littlejohn]

Irene at 989 mb at 1 am ET...eastern Florida taking a licking to the residential power infrastructure as Irene nudges north along her Eastern coastline seems to be coming more into the long range guidance...

GFS projecting up to a cat 3 strength cane for the Carolinas is on the east side of center of the long range cone...

More time over open water baking under up to a 120 degree heat index isn't the best of possibilities to consider...LJ

[littlejohn]

18N x 65.5W...Irene may be at hurricane force soon below Puerto Rico as it is building strength rather quickly...Latest loops have tended to be more westerly which doesn't help them overnight...

eye forming in the visible image...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg



Anyone who uses a mouse can hold down their Ctrl key and scroll their mouse to increase the size of the view in the link...LJ

[Drugdoctor]

Yea, one or 2 degrees, can mean below Haiti and Cuba or right down the middle!

[littlejohn]

Seems odd for the GFDL to be in such disagreement over the nearest next 2 to 3 days...1 to 3 degress south of the other models can make a lot of difference in trying to forcast the 3 to 5 day model...

GFDL model forcast...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2011082118-irene09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[g-ianni]

she is gonna stay to the right of Florida and the intensity will be much stronger than a Cat 1. I'm thinking Cat 2-3 min.

[Crazy Money]

[littlejohn]

The land interaction is forcast to lower Irene from a cane back down to a tropical storm coming off Cuba somewhere...

Need all the rain coming from whatever comes ashore further west...LJ

[DOLLARLAND]

Looks like the mountain islands will weaken her too much.

[littlejohn]

EXPU .0006...company ATMs in south Florida if any decide to make late moves...LJ

http://expertfinancing.net/business-services-2/atm_locations/

5 day cone...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_5day.html

[g-ianni]

starting to look real nasty!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/index_ref_l_loop.shtml

[littlejohn]

Tropical Storm Harvey making landfall in Belize...LJ

[g-ianni]

If THIS next wave stays over water it could present big problems for Florida and possibly enter the gulf or ride up the coast/ http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/index_ref_l_loop.shtml

[g-ianni]

Agreed, will be watching all next week. I believe there will be a pick in volume coming. go bugs!!

[littlejohn]

Its been a long time since any tropical activity has come near the lower part of Florida or its western side...Intensity doesn't seem to be getting projected for much yet...LJ

[g-ianni]

so far it's showing the best track of all the storms. we'll see where it winds up going.

[littlejohn]

97L could be another wantabe like so many others this year...LJ

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

[g-ianni]

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/data/images/at201197_model.gif

[DOLLARLAND]

Yawn... these canes really have a thing for Mexico. Obama must be droppiing his magic fairy dust in the ocean. Could I actually go all year without a Cane Play? maybe...

[Crazy Money]

zzz

[littlejohn]

Heat spawns storms...That broad area around 35N x 60W has still seemed more impressive than the low in the Carribean has been over the past day...

The weeks of intense heat over the US recently is probably what the broad circulation of about 10 x 10 degrees is feeding off of...And the cooler water than lower latitudes have hasn't been as noticeable...

Anyway it is good that the system will meet the north/easterly flow over water...Could be a violent get together...

A new little system coming off Africa has been added this evening for around September watch...

Area dropping out of Louisiana overnight has the look of a mother nature wild card...LJ

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

[littlejohn]

What is odd is the broad, dry circulation between about 25N to 30N and 50W to 60W...pushing west and should encounter east/northeast steering in the next day or so...

Its like a trigger is turned on as September nears...LJ

[Deewar25]

both GFS and ECMWF now showing dangerous storm hitting Florida.....between Dominican interaction and the curve though, still means nothing at the moment

[littlejohn]

Yep, and only contracts earned after any events have a meaningful change for any company...

Business of watching and awareness is top priority as it should be...LJ

[Deewar25]

behind it is much more interesting, but after last year, don't assume anything is going to be a risk to US until a day or two before!

[littlejohn]

Atlantic basin appears to be heating up with activity...LJ

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

[Deewar25]

GV may be best setup out there IMH - drop on earnings (revs slipped, but broke even), and what I find real interesting is they opened a new office in Texas - that means outreach in Texas, Florida, and South Carolina. Book value is at 0.57 and revenues are still strong. Considering market cap, the current value is ridiculous.
Oh yeah, insider buying at 0.4 as well.

Remember the sales and earnings from Katrina as a category 1 hurricane? This is realistically the best true play as they get work with even a minimal hurricane.

[g-ianni]

I near ya!! might be another bust this as well.

[g-ianni]

never considered it.

[littlejohn]

Hot and things can change quickly...Western Cuba has a flair up moving west with plenty of feed from the south and southeast if anything formed...

There is a flair up moving west just ahead of 92L which is projected to steer back to the east...

Dynamics of movement have only hampered things in a ripe environment so far this season...LJ

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg



Carribean view...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

[Crazy Money]

zzz

[Crazy Money]

Slow season again... where is the USA HURRICANE DOOM?

Waited all year last year for an OIL CANE and it never came

[Hockmir]

Have you ever looked at DVR as a possible 'Cane stock?

[littlejohn]

Rain in Texas today...Is the pattern shifting?...LJ

[Drugdoctor]

I'm watching but all 3 depressions are headed north out to sea now, the one six cents mentioned has the best chance of development but is over 10 days away...

[littlejohn]

Steering patterns have been more favorable for something moving north out of Mexico/South America to form in the gulf...

But nada for the year so far...

Small flair up around 25N x 75W is near where Katrina sprang up...But the steering pattern is for East movement now....

Areas due east of Florida have been active but the steering has been east to northeast...

Otherwise it would have been more active...LJ

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

[g-ianni]

yeppers. that the best trac out there to make some coin with.

[DOLLARLAND]

Keep an eye on Invest 93:

[g-ianni]

time to start loading up on cane stocks US is do for a landfall CAT 3-4 . MY FAVORITES ARE BUGS AND NSMG IN THAT PECKING ORDER.GLTA

[littlejohn]

Quiet night in the Carribean...LJ

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

[littlejohn]

Break out the suntan lotion on Florida beaches this weekend...

Emily now a remnant low...

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201105_5day.gif

[littlejohn]

TS Emily cone update...LJ

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0511W5_NL_sm2+gif/024213W5_NL_sm.gif

[littlejohn]

Emily blossoming in the warm Caribbean...LJ

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg



Caribbean sat view...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

[littlejohn]

Emily may hurt some Florida east coast weekend plans while staying offshore...

Steering expected to push her north could re-direct to the Carolinas with some time for intensification a cat or 2 higher...

May be about the worst case if the steering guidance comes in as expected...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0511_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/023612.gif



Early still but the 5 day cone now is billed to be as good as the 3 day cone back in the early 2000's...LJ

[littlejohn]

This is already on record the most destructive weather season in history without a hurricane...

Instead of cheering beating the odds on hurricanes, keeping an eye on protecting what you can if hurricanes do form seems even more meaningful now...LJ

[Crazy Money]

No Major U.S. Hurricane Hits This Season Would Set Record at Sixth Year

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-31/lack-of-major-u-s-hurricane-this-season-would-set-record-forecasters-say.html

The last time a major hurricane hit the U.S., pounding beaches and towns with winds of more than 111 miles per hour, was the record storm year of 2005.

“We have never gone six” years without a major strike

zzz ...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201105_model.html

[littlejohn]

Emily's projection cone West of expectations prior to closed circulation forming...LJ

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0511W5_NL_sm2+gif/233014W5_NL_sm.gif

[littlejohn]

Invest 91 was so big the wave has spun another wave out ahead of it...Seems unusual but could be why the expected transformation has not occured to a more defined system...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/010001.shtml?

Will it pull the forward wave generated into its circulation if it forms into a more defined tropical system?...LJ