HomeBuilders

[$hellKing]

No posts in a while but have what I think to be a FL/CA home builder IPO on the OTCQB Here is the DD below on my page



http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=118846232

[mlkrborn]

Hovnanian beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line (HOV) : Reports Q4 (Oct) earnings of $0.21 per share, $0.04 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.17; revenues rose 21.5% year/year to $591.7 mln vs the $596.53 mln consensus.

Homebuilding gross margin percentage, before interest expense and land charges included in cost of sales, increased 430 basis points to 22.6% for the fiscal 2013 fourth quarter compared with 18.3% during the fourth quarter of 2012, and was up 230 basis points compared to the 20.3% reported for the third quarter of 2013.
Deliveries, including unconsolidated joint ventures, were 1,816 homes during the fourth quarter of 2013, up 3.8% compared with 1,750 homes in the same period of the prior year.
The dollar value of net contracts, including unconsolidated joint ventures, during the fiscal 2013 fourth quarter decreased 4.5% to $490.5 million compared with $513.4 million in last year's fourth quarter. The number of net contracts decreased 8.9% to 1,315 homes in the fiscal 2013 fourth quarter from 1,443 homes in the prior year's fourth quarter.
Contract backlog, as of October 31, 2013, including unconsolidated joint ventures, was $848.4 million for 2,392 homes, which was an increase of 14.3% and 11.5%, respectively, compared to October 31, 2012.

"Although our sales slowed from July through September due to the adverse impacts of higher mortgage rates, the sequester and the government shutdown, we are happy to report that our sales improved back to prior year levels in October and exceeded last year's levels in November. Entering 2014 with a higher backlog, gross margin and community count, gives us optimism that, excluding any expenses related to early retirement of debt, fiscal 2014 should result in greater levels of profitability and continued leveraging of our fixed costs. Further, we continue to believe that household formations, the primary driver of housing demand, will ultimately lead to increased demand for new homes and we continue to believe that our industry is still in the early stages of a housing recovery."

[mlkrborn]

Fredy man (FMCC) net profit $4.5 B. and no need to draw down money from his uncle.
Freddie Mac reports Q4 net income of $4.5 bln; No additional Treasury draw required in Q4 (FMCC) 0.28 -0.05 :

Fourth quarter 2012 net income and comprehensive income totaled $4.5 billion and $5.7 billion, respectively. The increase primarily reflects a shift from a provision for credit losses in the third quarter to a benefit for credit losses in the fourth quarter due to a decrease in the volume of newly delinquent single-family loans and continued improvement in national home prices, as well as a higher income tax benefit primarily driven by the favorable resolution of tax matters with the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).
No Additional Treasury draw required for the fourth quarter of 2012; based on net worth of $8.8 billion at December 31, 2012, the company's dividend obligation to Treasury will be $5.8 billion in March 2013.
Paid $7.2 billion to taxpayers through dividends in 2012, bringing the cumulative total paid since conservatorship to $23.8 billion -- or 33 percent of the company's cumulative draws.
Post-2008 book of business grew to 63 percent of single-family credit guarantee portfolio in 2012 -- of which 11 percent of that portfolio were HARP loans.
Delinquency rates remained below industry benchmarks:
Single-family serious delinquency rate was 3.25 percent
Multifamily delinquency rate was 0.19 percent.
Beginning in 2013, the August 2012 amendment to the Purchase Agreement replaced the fixed 10 percent dividend rate with a net worth sweep dividend and suspended the periodic commitment fees. Under this amendment, Freddie Mac is required to pay dividends to the extent that its Net Worth Amount, as defined in the Purchase Agreement, exceeds the permitted capital reserve. The amount of the permitted capital reserve is $3 billion in 2013 and will be reduced by $600 million each year thereafter until it reaches zero in 2018. The amendment effectively ends the circular practice of taking draws from Treasury to pay dividends to Treasury.
Based on Freddie Mac's Net Worth Amount at December 31, 2012, the company's net worth sweep dividend obligation to Treasury in March 2013 will be $5.8 billion.
Beginning January 1, 2013, the amount of remaining funding available to Freddie Mac under the Purchase Agreement with Treasury is $140.5 billion.

[mlkrborn]

Slow Economic Growth is the 'New Normal' - Fannie Mae: Trend of Gradual, Below-Potential Economic Growth to Continue in 2013, 2014 >FNMA Fannie Mae
Last update: 1/24/2013 9:30:12 AM

By Saabira Chaudhuri

The gradual but below-potential economic growth seen in 2012 is likely to continue in 2013 and into 2014, according to a new report from Fannie Mae (FNMA).
The mortgage-finance company noted that the recovery's slow pace has become the "new normal," as the fiscal cliff and continuing debt-ceiling debate--which are likely to suppress consumer spending in the first half of 2013--continue to present potentially strong headwinds to meaningful growth activity.
Overall, Fannie forecasts a 2% growth rate for 2013, similar to the "subdued pace" of 2012, despite the fact the housing sector has become a "bright spot in the economy" since home prices began to rebound last year and is expected to provide a rising contribution to GDP in 2013 and in coming years.
Fannie noted that overall, home sales, home prices and home-building activity as well as home builder confidence appear to be on the upswing, having risen to multiyear highs.
"What we view as sub-par economic growth may actually continue to be par for the course for the near term," Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan said. "We expect the fiscal policy climate to act as a drag on growth this year with possible implications on the direction of the economy in the long term.
He added that the agency expects to see some upward trend in economic activity as fiscal-policy debates subside later in the spring, with growth accelerating moderately in the second half of the year
In the longer term, Mr. Duncan said the gradual return of manufacturing to the U.S. and increasing domestic energy production will work together to accelerate economic growth; however, Fannie Mae anticipates overall growth in 2013 will remain below its potential.
Write to Saabira Chaudhuri at [e-mail]
Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 24, 2013 09:30 ET (14:30 GMT)

[mlkrborn]

Independent Foreclosure Review to Provide $3.3 Billion in Payments, $5.2 Billion in Mortgage Assistance (XLF) : Ten mortgage servicing companies subject to enforcement actions for deficient practices in mortgage loan servicing and foreclosure processing have reached an agreement in principle with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Reserve Board to pay more than $8.5 billion in cash payments and other assistance to help borrowers. The sum includes $3.3 billion in direct payments to eligible borrowers and $5.2 billion in other assistance, such as loan modifications and forgiveness of deficiency judgments.

The payments involve mortgage servicers operating under enforcement actions issued in April 2011 by the OCC, the Federal Reserve, and the Office of Thrift Supervision. The agreement ensures that more than 3.8 million borrowers whose homes were in foreclosure in 2009 and 2010 with the participating servicers will receive cash compensation in a timely manner.

Eligible borrowers are expected to receive compensation ranging from hundreds of dollars up to $125,000, depending on the type of possible servicer error.

This agreement includes Aurora, Bank of America, Citibank, JPMorgan Chase, MetLife Bank, PNC, Sovereign, SunTrust, U.S. Bank, and Wells Fargo.

As a result of this agreement, the participating servicers would cease the Independent Foreclosure Review, which involved case-by-case reviews, and replace it with a broader framework allowing eligible borrowers to receive compensation significantly more quickly.

Eligible borrowers will receive compensation whether or not they filed a request for review form, and borrowers do not need to take further action to be eligible for compensation. A payment agent will be appointed to administer payments to borrowers on behalf of the servicers.

[mlkrborn]

Improving new construction third quarter 2012 data released.

[mlkrborn]

D.R. Horton, Inc. and Other Capital Goods Stocks Making Big Moves
July 27, 2012| Filed Under » Sector Summary, Stock Analysis
Tickers in this Article » ACO, GDI, SPF, GGG, SLCA, BEAV, DHI



The market is on the rise this morning. The Nasdaq has risen 1.4%; the S&P 500 has increased 1.1%; and the Dow has moved up 0.8%. The capital goods sector is the category of stocks related to the manufacture or distribution of goods. The sector is diverse, containing companies that manufacture machinery used to create capital goods, electrical equipment, aerospace and defense, engineering and construction projects. It is also referred to as the "industrials sector". Performance in the capital goods sector is sensitive to fluctuations in the business cycle. Because it relies heavily on manufacturing, the sector does well when the economy is booming or expanding. As economic conditions worsen, the demand for capital goods drops off, usually lowering the prices of stocks in the sector.

Underperforming the market overall, the Capital Goods sector (XLI) is up 1.3%, and these are its current biggest movers:
Company Market Cap Percentage Change
AMCOL International Corporation (NYSE:ACO) $917.5 million +9.3%
Gardner Denver, Inc. (NYSE:GDI) $2.61 billion +7.5%
Standard Pacific Corp. (NYSE:SPF) $1.26 billion -4.7%
Graco Inc. (NYSE:GGG) $2.6 billion +4.2%
US Silica Holdings Inc (NYSE:SLCA) $502.9 million -3.3%
BE Aerospace, Inc. (Nasdaq:BEAV) $4.07 billion -3.1%
D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) $5.99 billion -3%
Beginner's Guide To NinjaTrader Trading Software

AMCOL (NYSE:ACO) has increased to a share price of $31.44, a 9.3% rise. This morning, the company's volume is 49,241 shares. This is 0.6 times the current daily average. If a stock is trading on low volume, then there is not much interest in the stock. On the other hand, if a stock is trading on high volume, then there is a lot of interest in the stock. In making a decision about a potential or existing investment, valuation ratios are useful as a basis for seeing whether the stock price is too high, reasonable, or a bargain. A company's capitalization (not to be confused with its market capitalization) is the term used to describe the makeup of a company's permanent or long-term capital, which consists of both long-term debt and shareholders' equity. ACO has a capitalization ratio of 37.5%. The capitalization ratio is one of the more meaningful debt ratios because it focuses on the relationship of debt liabilities as a component of a company's total capital base, which is the capital raised by shareholders and lenders.

After rising 7.5%, Gardner Denver (NYSE:GDI) is currently trading at a share price of $56.06. The company's volume for the day so far is 669,906 shares, consistent with its average over the last three months. Volume is an important indicator because it indicates how significant a price shift is. It is important for an investor to estimate the value of any potential or existing investment; valuation ratios make this easier. The price/earnings ratio is calculated by taking a stock price and dividing it by the earnings-per-share (EPS). GDI's P/E ratio of 9.7 falls below the industry average of 29.65. Companies with low P/E ratios may find it easier to surprise the market to the upside, even if their financial performance is not as strong as that of companies with high P/E ratios. High P/E stocks could be "growth" stocks, while low PE stocks may be "value" stocks. SEE: The P/E Ratio: A Good Market-Timing Indicator



Standard (NYSE:SPF) is currently trading at a share price of $6.03, a 4.7% decline. So far today, 2.5 million shares have changed hands. When a stock price moves up or down, watching the volume is a good way of identifying how significant that shift is. Investment valuation ratios provide investors with an estimation, albeit a simplistic one, of the value of a stock. The price/book value ratio, often expressed simply as "price-to-book", provides investors a way to compare the market value, or what they are paying for each share, to a conservative measure of the value of the firm. SPF's P/B ratio of 1.88 shows that its share price is higher than its book value. It is important to take the company's debt into account when using the P/B ratio as debt can boost a company's liabilities to the point where they wipe out much of the book value of its hard assets, creating artificially high P/B values. To put things in perspective, should be made among companies in the same industry rather than across industries. SEE: How Buybacks Warps The Price-To-Book Ratio

Increasing 4.2%, Graco (NYSE:GGG) is trading at $44.81 per share. So far today, 124,265 shares have changed hands, which is likely to result in less activity than yesterday's volume of 485,307 shares. If a stock price moves on high volume, this means that the change is a significant one. Looking at a company's valuation ratios is a good way of getting a basic idea as to its value as an investment. For investors primarily interested in the income a stock can generate, the dividend yield is an important determinant of how attractive a stock is. Dividend yield for GGG is 2.1%. It is important to remember that while a higher dividend yield is more attractive, all else being equal, a higher dividend yield can also indicate greater perceived risk. SEE: Investment Valuation Ratios: Dividend Yield

Currently trading at $9.19 per share, US Silica Holdings (NYSE:SLCA) has fallen 3.3%. The company's volume for the day so far is 364,098 shares. This is 1.4 times the average daily volume. Volume indicates the level of interest that investors have in a company at its current price. Investors can make use of valuation ratios to estimate whether a stock is fairly valued. The price/sales ratio measures a company's stock market value by its total revenues or alternatively, a company's price per share by its revenue per share. SLCA's P/S ratio of 3.32 is on the high side. This could be a good sign if the share price increases. It is important to compare P/S ratios for companies in the same industry, as ratios can vary quite widely for companies in different industries.

BE Aerospace (Nasdaq:BEAV) is trading at $37.99 per share, down 3.1%. At 568,498 shares, the company's volume so far today is 0.3 times the average volume over the last three months. Volume is an important indicator in technical analysis as it is used to measure the worth of a market move. If the markets have made a strong price move either up or down the perceived strength of that move depends on the volume for that period. The higher the volume during that price move the more significant the move. Investment valuation ratios can be very useful in determining the value of a stock, but it is very important to keep in mind that while some financial ratios have general rules (or a broad application), in most instances it is a prudent practice to look at a company's historical performance and use peer company/industry comparisons to put any given company's ratio in perspective. The debt ratio measures the leverage of a company, and a company's leverage is a good way to assess risk. The debt ratio for BEAV is 56.2%. As with all financial ratios, a company's debt ratio should be compared with the industry average or similar companies.

D.R. Horton, Inc (NYSE:DHI) has fallen 3% and is currently trading at $18.23 per share. So far today, the company's volume is 6.1 million shares. As a stock moves up or down, it is important to pay attention to the trading volume. This indicates the level of interest: the higher the volume, the more the interest. A company's investment value can be estimated using valuation ratios such as the price to earnings (P/E) ratio, the price to earnings growth (PEG) ratio, the price to sales (P/S) ratio, the price to book (P/B) ratio, and the dividend yield. The debt-equity (D/E) ratio is a measurement of how much suppliers, lenders, creditors and obligors have committed to the company versus what the shareholders have committed. DHI's D/E ratio is 65%. The D/E ratio percentage provides a much more dramatic perspective on a company's leverage position than the debt ratio percentage.


The Bottom Line On any given day, a particular stock may see positive or negative change in its share price. Paying close attention to the previous ratios will help you identify key times to adjust your strategy. However, these fundamental metrics must be analyzed with historic data, industry information in addition to firm specific financial statements.


Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/SectorSummary/DRHortonIncandOtherCapitalGoodsStocksMakingBigMoves.aspx?partner=YahooSA#ixzz21rimaJ00

[mlkrborn]

How long will the party last for homebuilders?
July 27, 2012: 5:00 AM ET



Shares of the biggest homebuilders have soared as the housing market comes back to life. Can it last?
By Janet Morrissey

FORTUNE -- It's been a rough five years for the nation's homebuilders. Following the housing crash, they battled inventory gluts, tumbling home prices, a decimated economy, and a sharp pullback in demand.
But it appears they're back. Big time.
A surge in new home orders, low mortgage rates, a significant drop-off in housing inventory, and an uptick in home prices are fueling shareholder optimism. Shares of homebuilding stocks have surged 49% on average in 2012 in anticipation of the big rebound, according to UBS analyst David Goldberg. Some builder stocks have soared even higher, such as Standard Pacific (SPF), which has almost doubled in price, and Hovnanian, which is up 70%.
But Goldberg wonders if the rebound is now priced into the stocks. "There's a lot priced into the group now that is in excess of how things are going to play out in earnings potential and growth," he says. Still, he believes the sector has bottomed and home prices are moving up.
MORE: Questioning Weill's big bank break-up payday
This isn't the first time market watchers have predicted an industry rebound since the housing crash began in 2007. Builders rallied in 2010 over similar rebound expectations, but sold off by the fall of that year when the spring selling season flopped and the recovery failed to materialize after a tax-credit program expired.
But this latest rebound has two things going for it that may make it stick: Multiple months of order growth, and rising home prices. Orders -- a key metric that reflects demand and future revenue for homebuilders -- turned positive in the third quarter of 2011 and have been steadily rising every quarter since then. They rose 12% on average in the 2011 third quarter, 14% in the fourth quarter, 23% in the 2012 first quarter, and are on track to be up 30% in the second quarter, according to Alex Barron, founder and senior research analyst at Housing Research Center LLC, an independent housing research firm in El Paso.
Some individual homebuilders have reported even higher orders in the latest quarter: Lennar (LEN) saw orders spike 40%, Meritage (MTH) 49% and Hovnanian (HOV) 52%.
The uptick in demand comes as housing fundamentals appear to be recovering. Indeed, the glut of unsold homes that caused havoc in the market over the past five years has largely dissipated to more normal levels. The number of new unsold homes on the market is down 71% from its 2007 peak while the supply of existing unsold homes has shrunk 32%, says Fitch Ratings Managing Director Bob Curran.
MORE: Wall Street's investment du jour: Foreclosed homes
So, what's caused inventory to shrink and housing demand to increase when the economy has been so rocky? First, mortgage rates have remained at or near historic lows, making it attractive for fence-sitters to jump into the market. Second, the surge in rents at apartment buildings in recent years has caused renters to start moving back into the homeownership arena. Third, institutional investors, wanting to cash in on rising rental rates, have started gobbling up foreclosed homes at fire sale prices and then renting the homes back to the foreclosed owners rather than flipping them for a quick profit.
"They're buying foreclosures in bulk," says Barron. "Places like Vegas and Phoenix that used to be flooded with foreclosures – if you try to find one on the MLS, good luck, and even if you find one, there will be 20 offers on it."
Even pricing is starting to recover. A report by real estate firm Zillow this week showed prices rose 0.2% in the second quarter - the first quarterly increase since 2007. Phoenix, Miami, Denver and San Jose saw the biggest year-over-year gains, where prices rose 12.1%, 6.4%, 3.5% and 3.4% respectively.
Home prices in major markets are currently at 2003 levels, according to Case-Shiller. "At 2003 levels, there is the potential for a really robust rebound," says Goldberg.
All this bodes well for the country's largest homebuilders. Housing starts climbed to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 760,000 units in June – up 6.9% from May and up 24% from a year ago - its fastest pace of new construction since October 2008, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Goldman Sachs analyst Joshua Pollard, who raised his rating on homebuilders to 'Attractive' from 'Neutral' this week, is predicting housing starts will climb to 1 million in 2013 and 1.4 million in 2015.
MORE: The downside of rising home prices
Homebuilders that cater to move-up buyers and have low debt stand to see the biggest earnings growth and stock rebound, says UBS's Goldberg. Builders with higher debt, such as KB Home (KBH), Beazer (BZH), and Hovnanian whose debt levels range from 77% to 186% of market cap, will likely see a slower rebound, he says.
Of course, all rebound bets are off though if the country heads into a double-dip recession or interest rates surge. But even if this happens, Curran says it's time to allow the housing sector to sort itself out without further government intervention and incentive programs.
"We need to go through the cleansing process, and as painful as that might be, it's better than delaying and delaying, which is what a lot of these foreclosure initiatives did – it just delayed foreclosures," he says. "This led to a market in distress longer than it should have been."

[mlkrborn]

Jump in housing starts, earnings sends stocks up
Stocks move higher on Wall Street; a jump in housing starts and earnings bring buyers back

By Bernard Condon, AP Business Writer | Associated Press – 1 hour 15 minutes ago
Email

Print
Companies:
Intel CorporationVIVUS Inc.PNC Financial Services Group Inc.
RELATED QUOTES
Symbol Price Change
INTC 26.33 0.95
VVUS 29.08 2.62
PNC 60.87 -0.72

QCOM 55.89 1.43
TXN 27.61 1.02


NEW YORK (AP) -- New signs of a rebound in housing and a handful of better earnings reports are bringing buyers back to the stock market.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 103 points to 12,909 in early afternoon trading Wednesday, overcoming an early deficit of 50 points. The Dow has had a miserable July so far, marking only its third gain for the month on Tuesday.
"Many of the risks — an anemic European economy, a slowdown in Asia — have been factored into earnings expectations," said Talley Leger, investment strategist at Macro Vision Research, an investment consulting firm. "That's why we're seeing positive surprises."
Stocks of homebuilders rose after the government reported that builders broke ground last month on the most new homes and apartments in nearly four years. The 6.9 percent jump brought the number of housing starts to the highest since October 2008. Hovnanian Enterprises was up nearly 1 percent. The news came a day after a gauge of confidence among U.S. homebuilders jumped to the highest level in five years.
In other trading, the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose ten points to 1,374. Amphenol jumped 14 percent, the most in the index, after the maker of electronic cables and connectors reported second-quarter earnings that were higher than analysts were expecting. Amphenol's stock was up $7.40 at $58.76.
A big gain by Intel following its earnings report drove up technology stocks, especially other chip makers. That sector, plus industrials, were responsible for much of the market's gains. The Nasdaq composite climbed 37 points to 2,947.
Other earnings reports weren't as strong. Bank of America reported income that beat most analysts' expectations for the second quarter, but its revenue fell short. Profit declined for both PNC Financial Services Group and the investment manager BlackRock. PNC fell 1.5 percent and BlackRock 0.5 percent.
After the market closed Tuesday, Intel said a slowing global economy cut into its second quarter results. Still, earnings came in ahead of analysts' estimates. Intel's stock was up 78 cents, or 3 percent, at $26.16. Other chip makers followed Intel higher. Qualcomm, which reports earnings after the closing bell Wednesday, rose $1.71 to $56.17 and Texas Instruments rose $1.02to $27.61.
At the start of the earnings season last week, Wall Street analysts expected earnings for S&P 500 companies to fall 1 percent, according to S&P Capital IQ. That would be the first drop in nearly three years. Later in the day, IBM, eBay, American Express and Yum Brands, owner of Taco Bell, KFC and Pizza Hut, report earnings.
So far, several large companies have delivered pleasant surprises in their earnings reports. Honeywell International, a big technology and manufacturing company, reported an 11 percent increase in second-quarter income Wednesday, more than Wall Street was expecting, thanks to higher demand for its products. Honeywell also raised its forecast for full-year profits. Honeywell's stock jumped $3.54 to $58.08.
Another big stock winner Wednesday was Vivus Inc., a drug maker. It rose 16 percent after announcing it got approval from regulators to sell a new weight-loss pill. Doctors consider the pill, Qsymia, the most effective of a new generation of anti-obesity drugs. The company plans to start selling it by the end of the year.
Madison Square Garden's stock lost nearly 1 percent after the owner of the New York Knicks NBA team confirmed that it was losing star player Jeremy Lin to the Houston Rockets. The Knicks said they wouldn't match a three-year, $25 million offer for the player. MSG's stock fell 29 cents to $35.52.
Treasurys prices rose slightly as demand for low-risk assets remained strong. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.49 percent from 1.50 percent late Tuesday. Germany auctioned $6.14 billion in two-year treasury notes Wednesday with an average interest rate, or yield, of minus 0.06 percent.
Investors are watching Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments to Congress see if the central bank may be close to launching another round of bond purchases. He has not signaled any new stimulus is imminent, though he did say the Fed was looking at "ways to address the weakness in the economy should more action be needed to promote a sustained recovery in the labor market."
Bernanke is speaking to Congress on his second day of testimony on the state of the economy.

[mlkrborn]

Freddie Mac: Multifamily Delinquencies Edge Up in May; Single-Family Rate Dips
Last update: 6/26/2012 8:54:19 AM

By Melodie Warner

Mortgage delinquencies on multifamily homes continued to rise in May from April, while single-family home delinquencies declined, according a monthly report from Freddie Mac (FMCC).
Multifamily delinquencies rose to 0.26% in May from 0.25% in April while delinquencies on single-family homes slipped last month to 3.5% from 3.51% in April.
Freddie Mac's report also showed that its total mortgage portfolio dropped at an annualized rate of 9.4% in May to $2.016 trillion.
Mortgage financier Freddie Mac and sister company Fannie Mae (FNMA) were taken over by the government in 2008 at the height of the credit crisis. Freddie Mac's performance has lately begun to improve as it sets aside less money to cover potential credit losses.
Write to Melodie Warner at [e-mail]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 26, 2012 08:54 ET (12:54 GMT)

[mlkrborn]

HOV profitable; up. $2.00 .Hovnanian Enterprises Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2012 Results

Press Release: Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. – 29 minutes ago

Email
Print
Companies:
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc.
RELATED QUOTES
Symbol Price Change
HOV 2.00 +0.29

RED BANK, N.J., June 6, 2012 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE:HOV - News), a leading national homebuilder, reported results for its second quarter and six months ended April 30, 2012.
RESULTS FOR THE THREE AND SIX MONTH PERIODS ENDED APRIL 30, 2012:
Total revenues were $341.7 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2012 compared with $255.1 million in the second quarter of the previous year. For the first six months of fiscal 2012, total revenues were $611.3 million compared with $507.7 million during the same period of the prior year.
Net income was $1.8 million during the second quarter, or $0.02 per common share, compared with an after-tax net loss of $72.7 million, or $0.69 per common share, during the second quarter of 2011. For the six months ended April 30, 2012, the after-tax net loss was $16.5 million, or $0.15 per common share, compared with an after-tax net loss of $136.8 million, or $1.49 per common share, during the same period a year ago.
Homebuilding gross margin percentage, before interest expense included in cost of sales, was 17.4% during the second quarter of 2012, compared to 14.8% in the same quarter of the prior year. For the six month period ended April 30, 2012, homebuilding gross margin percentage, before interest expense included in cost of sales, was 17.0% compared with 15.8% in the year earlier period.
Total SG&A was $47.4 million or 13.9% of total revenues for the three months ended April 30, 2012 compared to $51.8 million or 20.3% of total revenues during the same quarter a year ago. For the first half of fiscal 2012, total SG&A was $93.4 million or 15.3% of total revenues compared with $107.0 million or 21.1% of total revenues during the first half of 2011.
Net contracts for the quarter ended April 30, 2012, including unconsolidated joint ventures, increased 52% to 1,775 homes compared with 1,166 homes in the 2011 second quarter. For the first half of fiscal 2012, net contracts, including unconsolidated joint ventures, were 2,854, a 42% increase compared with 2,016 homes in the first six months of 2011.
Consolidated pre-tax land-related charges during the fiscal 2012 second quarter were $3.2 million, compared with $16.9 million in last year's second quarter. During the first six months of fiscal 2012, the consolidated pre-tax land-related charges were $6.5 million compared with $30.5 million in last year's first half.
Repurchased $75.4 million principal amount of unsecured senior notes for $53.5 million, including accrued interest, from the proceeds of a 25 million share Class A common stock offering at $2.00 per share and $6.2 million of cash during the second quarter of 2012, resulting in a $23.3 million gain on extinguishment of debt.
Exchanged approximately 3.1 million shares of Class A common stock for $12.2 million of unsecured senior and senior subordinated amortizing notes during the three months ended April 30, 2012, resulting in an additional $3.7 million gain on extinguishment of debt.
Excluding land-related charges, expenses associated with debt exchange offer and gain on extinguishment of debt, the pre-tax loss in the fiscal 2012 second quarter was $21.4 million compared with $55.1 million in the prior year's second quarter. During the six months ended April 30, 2012, the pre-tax loss, excluding land-related charges, expenses associated with debt exchange offer and gain on extinguishment of debt, was $55.7 million compared with $106.2 million in the first half of last year.
Contract backlog, as of April 30, 2012, including unconsolidated joint ventures, was 2,298 homes with a sales value of $762.8 million, which was an increase of 48% and 49%, respectively, compared to April 30, 2011.
The contract cancellation rate, including unconsolidated joint ventures, for the three months ended April 30, 2012 was 17%, compared with 20% in the second quarter of the prior year.
Deliveries, including unconsolidated joint ventures, were 1,207 homes in the second quarter of 2012, up 25% compared with 967 homes in the 2011 second quarter. During the first six months of fiscal 2012, deliveries, including unconsolidated joint ventures, were 2,219 homes compared with 1,859 homes in the same period of the prior year, an increase of 19%.
The valuation allowance was $906.8 million as of April 30, 2012. The valuation allowance is a non-cash reserve against the tax assets for GAAP purposes. For tax purposes, the tax deductions associated with the tax assets may be carried forward for 20 years from the date the deductions were incurred.
CASH AND INVENTORY AS OF APRIL 30, 2012:
After spending $44.2 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2012 on land and land development and $53.5 million to repurchase debt, homebuilding cash was $229.0 million, as of April 30, 2012, including $33.8 million of restricted cash required to collateralize letters of credit.
Cash flow in the second quarter of fiscal 2012 was positive $10.3 million, after spending $44.2 million of cash to purchase approximately 740 lots and to develop land across the Company's markets.
As of April 30, 2012, the land position, including unconsolidated joint ventures, was 28,809 lots, consisting of 9,372 lots under option and 19,437 owned lots.
COMMENTS FROM MANAGEMENT:
"We are encouraged by the positive operating trends we reported for the second quarter. We achieved a 34% year-over-year increase in total revenues, a 260 basis point year-over-year improvement in gross margin and reduced our total SG&A ratio by 640 basis points during the second quarter," commented Ara K. Hovnanian, Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer. "We sold more homes per community in April 2012, excluding our September 2007 Deal of the Century sales promotion, than we have in any month since the spring selling season of 2006. The sales improvements we have experienced are fairly wide-based in terms of geography, price points and buyer profiles. As evidenced by our four consecutive quarters of year-over-year net contract growth for the first time since 2006, we are encouraged that the homebuilding industry may be entering the early stages of a recovery," concluded Mr. Hovnanian.

[mlkrborn]

April new home building figures disappoint:

[mlkrborn]

NAHB home-builder index drops 3 points in April


By Steve Goldstein

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Home-builder sentiment dropped in April for the first time in seven months, as growing traffic at new-build sites hasn't yet led to sales. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index dropped 3 points to a seasonally adjusted 25 in April - on a scale of 0 to 100. Economists polled by MarketWatch had anticipated a steady reading of 28. The index hasn't been in "good" territory, or at 50, since Apr. 2006. Each of the components fell in April. The components measuring current sales conditions and sales expectations in the next six months dropped 3 points, while the traffic measuring prospective buyer traffic fell 4 points.

Read the full story:
Builder sentiment drops in April; first fall in 7

[mlkrborn]

KB Home misses by $0.36, misses on revs (KBH) 11.24 : Reports Q1 (Feb) loss of $0.59 per share, $0.36 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of ($0.23); revenues rose 29.3% year/year to $254.6 mln vs the $338.61 mln consensus. Metrics: Homes delivered increased 21% to 1,150, up from 949 homes delivered in the year-earlier quarter. Three of the co's four regions produced higher deliveries. The average selling price rose 6% to $219,000 from $205,700 for the year-earlier quarter, reflecting increases in the co's West Coast and Southwest regions that were partly offset by decreases in its Central and Southeast regions. Housing gross margin was 9.7% for the first quarter of 2012, compared to 12.6% for the first quarter of 2011. Net orders totaled 1,197 in the first quarter of 2012, down 8% YoY, as a 22% increase in the co's Central region was more than offset by decreases in each of the co's three other regions. Though gross orders were up 3%, an increase in the cancellation rate to 36% from 29% in the year-earlier quarter led to the year-over-year decrease in net orders. The co had a backlog of 2,203 homes, representing potential future housing revenues of $460.0 million, as of February 29, 2012, compared to a backlog of 1,689 homes, representing potential future housing revenues of $353.6 million, as of February 28, 2011. Mgmt: "Reflecting the improving trends in the economy, including recent job growth and higher consumer confidence, we are seeing signs that the overall housing market is stabilizing and beginning to recover. The pace of the recovery is uneven, however, with certain local markets showing greater strength and more normalized activity than other areas where a rebound will take longer to manifest. We expect that the housing market in general will gradually strengthen as the economy continues to advance. While we are encouraged by the recent positive economic and housing market trends, our operational and financial results for the first quarter were mixed. We ended the quarter with a higher backlog compared to a year ago, although our orders moderated."

[mlkrborn]

FNMA reported: Details.. $0.33
Today's News, February 29, 2012
11:12a
2nd UPDATE: Fannie Mae Swings To 4Q Loss On Jump In Credit-Related Expenses (Dow Jones)
10:13a
UPDATE: Fannie Mae Swings To 4Q Loss On Jump In Credit-Related Expenses (Dow Jones)
9:33a
Fannie Mae: Multifamily Earned $177M In 4Q (Dow Jones)
9:33a
Fannie Mae 4Q Capital Markets' Net Interest Income $2.4B (Dow Jones)
9:32a
Fannie Mae Doesn't Expect Change In Bank Of Amer Agreement To Be Material To Business Or Results Of Ops (Dow Jones)
9:32a
Fannie Mae: Multifamily Recorded Credit-Related Expenses $116M In 4Q (Dow Jones)
9:31a
Fannie Mae: If Co Collects Less Than Amount It Expects From Bank of America, It May Need To Seek Addtl Funds From Treasury (Dow Jones)
9:31a
Fannie Mae: Multifamily Guaranty Book Of Busines $195.2B As Of Dec 31 (Dow Jones)
9:30a
Fannie Mae: Single-Family Guaranty Fee Income For 4Q $1.9B >FNMA (Dow Jones)
9:30a
Fannie Mae: Single-Family Business Lost $4.5B In 4Q >FNMA (Dow Jones)
9:29a
Fannie Mae: Bank of America Can Continue Delivering Loans To Fannie Mae Under Refi Plus Initiative (Dow Jones)
9:29a
Fannie Mae Single-Family Guaranty Book Of Business $2.84T As Of Dec 31 (Dow Jones)
9:28a
Fannie Mae Is Taking Steps To Address Bank of America's Delays (Dow Jones)
9:28a
Fannie Mae Didn't Renew Existing Loan Delivery Contract With Bank of America At End Of January (Dow Jones)
9:27a
Fannie Mae: Already High Volume Of Fannie Mae's Outstanding Repurchase Requests With Bank of America Increased Substantially (Dow Jones)
9:26a
Fannie Mae: Bank of America Slowed Pace Of Repurchases In 4Q (Dow Jones)
9:25a
Fannie Mae Has Paid $19.8B To Treasury In Divs On Sr Pfd Stk Through Dec 31 (Dow Jones)
9:24a
Fannie Mae: Amount Exceeds Reported Annual Net Income For Every Year Since Inception (Dow Jones)
9:23a
Fannie Mae: Will Increase To $117.1B Upon Receipt Of Funds From Treasury To Eliminate 4Q Net Worth Deficit (Dow Jones)
9:23a
Fannie Mae Swings To 4Q Loss On Jump In Credit-Related Expenses (Dow Jones)
9:23a
Fannie Mae: Will Require Annualized Dividend Payment Of $11.7B (Dow Jones)
9:21a
Fannie Mae: Liquidation Preference Of Sr Pfd Stk Increased From $104.8B To $112.6B As Of Dec 31 (Dow Jones)
9:19a
Fannie Mae: In Dec 2011, Treasury Provided $7.8B To Cure Net Worth Deficit As Of Sept 30 (Dow Jones)
9:18a
Fannie Mae Will Request Funds Under Terms Of Sr Pfd Stk Purchase Pact To Eliminate Co's Net Worth Deficit As Of Dec 31, 2011 (Dow Jones)
9:16a
Fannie Mae Will Request $ 4.571B Of Funds From Treasury (Dow Jones)
9:15a
Fannie Mae Total Loss Reserves Increased To $76.9B As Of Dec 31 (Dow Jones)
9:15a
Fannie Mae 4Q Net Fair Value Losses $751M (Dow Jones)
9:14a
Fannie Mae 4Q Credit Losses $4.7B (Dow Jones)
9:13a
Fannie Mae 4Q Net Interest Income $4.2B (Dow Jones)
9:12a
Fannie Mae 4Q Credit-Related Expenses $5.5B (Dow Jones)
9:10a
Fannie Mae Single-family Foreclosure Rate 1.13% On Annualized Basis For 2011 (Dow Jones)
9:09a
Fannie Mae Acquired 47,256 Single-family Real-estate Owned Properties, Primarily Through Foreclosure, In 4Q (Dow Jones)
9:08a
Fannie Mae Purchased Or Guaranteed About $653B In Loans In 2011 (Dow Jones)
9:06a
Fannie Mae Remained Largest Single Issuer Of Mortgage-Related Securities In Secondary Mkt In 4Q (Dow Jones)
9:05a
Fannie Mae Net Worth Deficit $4.6B As Of Dec 31 (Dow Jones)

[mlkrborn]

FNMA and FMCC over $0.40.. Shorties squeezed! Good indicator.

[mlkrborn]

U.S. home-builder gauge hits four-plus-year high
02/15/2012 10:00:56 AM


Get the latest news on our mobile site: http://marketwatch.com/m

Visit www.marketwatch.com for updates to this story and more

[mlkrborn]

Federal Home Loan Mortgage CorpOTC Markets Group Inc - OTCQB:FMCC


UPDATE: Obama Budget Sees Positive Contribution From Fannie, Freddie
1:46p ET February 13, 2012 (Dow Jones)
UPDATE: Obama Budget Sees Positive Contribution From Fannie, Freddie

--Government-sponsored enterprises, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, will contribute $10.46 billion to government coffers in fiscal year 2013
--Same agencies project to be a $12.32 billion drain on budget in the current fiscal year
--New revenue coming from increase fees and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac dividend payments

(Updates with additional details from White House budget materials starting third paragraph.)

By Eric Morath
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Government-sponsored enterprises, including mortgage funders Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC), will contribute $10.46 billion to the Treasury Department's coffers in fiscal year 2013 after costing the government billions in recent years, according to President Barack Obama's budget.
The enterprises cost taxpayers $12.63 billion in the 2011 fiscal year and are estimated to cost another $12.32 billion in the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, but those outlays will flip to revenue next fiscal year, the budget said.
The budget, released Monday, forecasts that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will have sufficient earnings to start paying a portion of scheduled dividend payments to the government in fiscal year 2013. From 2014 through 2022 the administration expects net dividend receipts of $121 billion.
The budget also expects a positive contribution from increased guarantee fees to implemented at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as part of agreement over the payroll tax extension. In the budget, the White House said the fee increase will enhance the price-competitiveness of non-agency mortgages.
The new fee revenue will be sent to the Treasury, resulting in deficit reductions of $37 billion through 2022, Obama's budget proposal said.
Meanwhile, Obama's budget plans to increase funding for the Department of Housing and Urban Development by 3.2%, or $1.4 billion.
The agency would maintain current funding levels for many of its programs and increases spending for sustainable development and housing counseling services, including assistance for families in danger of foreclosure.
The department, however, will cut $640 million in spending on project-based rental assistance programs and look to increase the minimum rent charged to assisted households.

-By Eric Morath, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9279; [e-mail]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
02-13-12 1346ET
Copyright (c) 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.BT201202130059132012-02-13 18:46:00.0006RP1NK5JET7CT55U1241RGRAJGDJNF

Previous versions and related news

[mlkrborn]

Bernanke renews push for foreclosed rentals
Rental plan could help housing imbalance, Fed chief says

Feb. 10, 2012, 2:05 p.m. EST

By Ronald D. Orol, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday made a renewed push for programs to convert foreclosed homes into rental units to help revive the housing market.

“With home prices falling and rents rising, it could make sense in some markets to turn some of the foreclosed homes into rental properties,” Bernanke said in a speech in Orlando at the National Association of Home Builders conference, according to a copy of prepared remarks. “Real-estate-owned to rental programs appear to have some potential for success.”
THE FED
Reuters
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the House Budget committee hearing.
• Live-blog of Bernanke hearing
• Fed pushes out low rate pledge to late 2014
• Text of FOMC statement
• Live-blog of the Bernanke press conference
• Richmond Fed’s Lacker explains FOMC dissent
• Kellner: Fed’s forecasting reputation shaky
• What’s behind Republican attacks on the Fed
• What’s your question for Bernanke

CALENDARS AND COLUMNS
• U.S. economic calendar | Global calendar
• Market Snapshot | Bond Report | Currencies
• Sign up for breaking-news alerts by email

The central bank chairman added that such programs could help cure the market’s current “serious” imbalances where there is a excess supply of vacant homes and an expanded rental market.

Bernanke added that there are an additional 1 million foreclosed properties could be held by banks, guarantors and servicers “in each of the next few years.” He added that the number of properties in the foreclosure process is more than four times the number of foreclosed properties owned by banks, government-seized Fannie Mae, Freddie and the Federal Housing Administration.

The number of properties suitable for rental is bound to increase, as the number of properties currently in the foreclosure process is more than four times the number of properties in the REO inventory.

The Federal Reserve is making a push to encourage banks to rent out foreclosed properties they own. Existing statutes and regulations do not prohibit financial institutions from renting out their foreclosed properties, but regulators encourage sales instead of rentals. To counter that, Bernanke recently said the agency may soon provide guidance that could encourage rentals of foreclosed properties owned by banks. Read more about Bernanke White Paper

Also, the regulator for government-seized housing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is working on a program that may employ government financing or guarantees to attract investors to buy up foreclosed properties on their books in bulk and rehabilitate and convert them into rentals.

In response to a question, Bernanke said financing was critical for these programs to work because it required the purchase of large numbers of homes within a particular geographic area, all of which is necessary to attract investors and management companies.

“Providing financing for these kind of projects, which could involve hundreds of homes, is an important direction and one in which new financing policies could be quite helpful,” Bernanke said.

He also suggested programs to create so-called “land banks,” which are typically government entities that have the ability to purchase and sell real estate. He said these land banks could buy and rehabilitate these homes and convert them into rentals. He added that these are a “promising” option but that so far existing land banks lack the resources to keep pace with the number of low-value U.S. properties.

The central bank chairman reiterated his concerns about so-called “underwater” homeowners who are current on their mortgages, but because they have little or no equity in their homes, they cannot refinance to current low interest rates.

However, he did not mention a recent Obama administration proposal that seeks to massively expand an existing program to help these underwater borrowers with little refinance.


Bernanke did suggest that policymakers could consider such a program in a Jan. 4 white paper to Congress. In response to a question after his speech Friday, Bernanke said his goal with the white paper was not to make a series of recommendations but to put out the main issues and leave it to other policy makers, Congress and administration such as the Federal Housing Finance Agency to make decisions on housing proposals.

Bernanke has come under fire for the white paper, as members of Congress argue that he was coming on their fiscal policy turf.

Bernanke’s comments come as U.S. economists at the builders show said the housing market will see a modest rebound in 2012. Given the depths to which the market fell in 2011 the recovery will not feel all that good to those in the real estate business, they say. Read about fledgling housing recovery

[mlkrborn]

US Housing Program Grows Slightly As Obama Plans Housing Revamp
3:00p ET February 6, 2012 (Dow Jones)
US Housing Program Grows Slightly As Obama Plans Housing Revamp

By Alan Zibel
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The number of U.S. homeowners helped by the Obama administration's flagship mortgage assistance program inched up in December, as the government kicks off a push to retool its housing-assistance efforts.
Treasury Department statistics released Monday showed the government's Home Affordable Modification program have helped nearly 763,000 U.S. homeowners avoid losing their homes through permanent loan modifications as of December, up from around 751,000 in November.
The HAMP program was announced in early 2009 as a way to aid homeowners struggling in the wake of the housing bust. The government pays lenders incentives to help borrowers avoid foreclosure by reducing their mortgage payments.
Nearly 1.8 million homeowners have started the program since its launch, but many didn't qualify for the program after an initial trial phase. Others were unable to make payments, even at lower levels, and dropped out.
The administration initially projected that between 3 million and 4 million borrowers would be helped. But President Barack Obama acknowledged in a speech last week that "the programs that we put forward haven't worked at the scale that we hoped."
As a result, the administration has been working on revamping its housing initiatives. Last month, the administration said it would give troubled homeowners an additional year to enroll in the HAMP program and increase payments to banks in an effort to get them to reduce more borrowers' loan balances.
Administration officials estimate that about 1 million additional homeowners would be eligible with changes that include making the program available to people who rent out their homes and relaxing some other qualification rules.
Those changes "will bring further assistance to homeowners, renters and their communities," said Tim Massad, an assistant Treasury secretary, in a prepared statement. The HAMP program had been set to expire at the end of this year, but will now extend through 2013.
HAMP seeks to reduce borrowers' monthly payments to make them affordable, typically by extending the loan term and lowering the interest rate.
But officials are pushing harder for banks to reduce loan balances. They are tripling the amount of taxpayer money that investors receive when they reduce loan balances.
However, government-controlled mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) and their regulator have resisted reducing principal balances, arguing that doing so is too costly. As a result, only about 40,000 of borrowers currently enrolled in HAMP have had their loan balances reduced, the Treasury report said.

-By Alan Zibel, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9263; [e-mail]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
02-06-12 1500ET
Copyright (c) 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.BT201202060062982012-02-06 20:00:00.00042JMGIB1RE3T1SJF4BDF3AAM4DDJNF

Previous versions and related news
Today

8:00p

US Housing Program Grows Slightly As Obama Plans Housing RevampDow Jones

[mlkrborn]

US Housing Regulator Launches Foreclosure-Rental Program
Last update: 2/1/2012 9:41:34 AM
By Alan Zibel
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--A U.S. housing regulator on Wednesday invited investors to submit initial applications so they can qualify to bid for pools of foreclosed properties owned by Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC).
The announcement by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates the two government-controlled mortgage-finance giants, represents an effort to aid the troubled U.S. housing market by allowing investors to purchase foreclosures and turn them into rental properties. It comes as President Barack Obama announces a series of steps on Wednesday to assist the housing market.
The FHFA said it wants to make sure investors in such properties have strong enough finances and enough experience to manage such a process.
Investors would be required to rent out the foreclosures for several years. The regulator did not disclose how many properties would likely be sold off through the program.
"This is an important step toward increasing private investment in foreclosed properties to maximize value and stabilize communities," the agency's acting director, Edward DeMarco, said in an statement.
FHFA did not disclose how many properties would be sold, but said it would soon announce the first transaction in a pilot program being run by Fannie Mae, which will sell rental properties, vacant homes and defaulted loans.
Regulators selected Fannie Mae to run the pilot program rather than Freddie Mac because it has a larger inventory of foreclosures.
-By Alan Zibel, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9263; [e-mail]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires

[mlkrborn]

2012 - Year of the Political Economy
Last update: 1/13/2012 9:00:00 AM
--Slower Growth Expected for First Half of 2012 Compared to Fourth Quarter of 2011; Second-Half Growth Projected to Trend Modestly Higher --Housing Sector Showing Incremental Improvement Due to Modest Pick-Up in Employment
WASHINGTON, Jan. 13, 2012 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Fiscal policy issues and political economic uncertainty will take center stage in determining the degree of consumer and business activity - key drivers of economic growth - during 2012, according to Fannie Mae's (FNMA) Economics & Mortgage Market Analysis Group. The forthcoming presidential election, potential expiration of tax provisions for businesses and households, and the ongoing healthcare debate are among the uncertainties expected to keep the economy moving at a moderate pace with growth of 2.3 percent expected for the year. Moreover, contagion effects from the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone, which appears to be slipping into recession, are expected to remain as a primary risk to growth in 2012.
Consumers seem to have gotten out of their summer rut due in large part to improving labor market conditions and improving attitudes toward employment prospects and future income. As consumer sentiment shows signs of improvement, so do recent housing indicators, which are trending in a positive direction with incremental improvement expected to continue throughout 2012 - albeit only modestly initially, and moving from historic lows.
"We're entering 2012 with decent momentum, especially on the employment side, which is fostering positive household and consumer behavior. Unfortunately, we expect this momentum to slow as we move through the first half of the year," said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. "2012 will be replete with policy changes and challenges that involve the global economy, the domestic economy, and the housing sector. We expect the net effect will be a year of moderate growth edging away from the 2011 threat of a double dip."
For an audio synopsis of the January 2012 Economic Outlook, listen to the podcast on the Economics & Mortgage Market Analysis site at . Visit the site to read the full January 2012 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, Housing Forecast, and Multifamily Market Commentary.
Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economics & Mortgage Market Analysis (EMMA) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the EMMA Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the EMMA Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
Fannie Mae exists to expand affordable housing and bring global capital to local communities in order to serve the U.S. housing market. Fannie Mae has a federal charter and operates in America's secondary mortgage market to enhance the liquidity of the mortgage market by purchasing or guaranteeing mortgage loans originated by mortgage bankers and other lenders so that they may lend to home buyers. Our job is to help those who house America.
Follow us on Twitter:
SOURCE Fannie Mae
Copyright (C) 2012 PR Newswire. All rights reserved

[mlkrborn]

Fitch: Williams Resignation Will Have No Impact On FNMA's 'AAA' Rating
Last update: 1/12/2012 12:31:45 PM
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires (212-416-2400)
January 12, 2012 12:31 ET (17:31 GMT)

[mlkrborn]

Mortgage Rates Continue Trend of Record-Breaking Lows
Last update: 1/12/2012 10:00:00 AM
MCLEAN, Va., Jan. 12, 2012 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Freddie Mac (FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing mortgage rates easing to new all-time record lows for all products covered in the survey helping to keep homebuyer affordability high. The average for the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been below 4.00 percent for six consecutive weeks.
News Facts
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.89 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending January 12, 2012, down from last week when it averaged 3.91 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.71 percent.
15-year FRM this week averaged 3.16 percent with an average 0.8 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.23 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.08 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.82 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.86 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.72 percent.
1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.76 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.80 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.23 percent.
Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following links for Regional and National Mortgage Rate Details and Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.
Quotes
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.
"Mortgage rates eased slightly this week to all-time record lows following mixed indicators in the labor market. Although the economy added 1.6 million jobs in 2011, which was the most since 2006, the unemployment rate remained historically elevated. The 2009 to 2011 period had the highest three-year average unemployment rate since 1939 to 1941. Moreover, the Federal Reserve indicated in its January 11th regional economic review that most industries saw limited permanent hiring at the end of last year."
Get the latest information from Freddie Mac's Office of the Chief Economist on Twitter:@FreddieMac
Freddie Mac was established by Congress in 1970 to provide liquidity, stability and affordability to the nation's residential mortgage markets. Freddie Mac supports communities across the nation by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Over the years, Freddie Mac has made home possible for one in six homebuyers and more than five million renters.
SOURCE Freddie Mac
Copyright (C) 2012 PR Newswire. All rights reserved

[mlkrborn]

SPDR Homebuilders continues to display intraday relative strength (XHB) 17.08 +0.42 : The XHB has pushed to/paused at 17.14 leaving its slightly under its Oct intraday high/Nov close high at 17.22. The roughly five month high from early in the week is at 17.36 -- SPF, TOL, MTH, MDC, LEN, PHM, HD, LOW, SHW, MHK.

[mlkrborn]

Consumer Concerns Stabilize in November; Downward Slide of Consumer Sentiment Appears to Have Halted
Last update: 12/7/2011 9:00:00 AM
Home Price Expectations Improve While Other Indicators Show Little Change in Trend
WASHINGTON, Dec. 7, 2011 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Amid a spate of positive economic news during the November survey period, consumer sentiment appears to have stabilized from previous levels, with only incremental improvement in the deeply negative housing market sentiment witnessed this summer. According to results from Fannie Mae's November National Housing Survey, home price expectations moved from negative to positive territory for the first time in six months, with respondents expecting home prices to increase by 0.2 percent over the next year. Overall, trends demonstrate that consumers are in a "wait and see" pattern as we move into 2012. This places consumer sentiment in line with Fannie Mae's Economics & Mortgage Market Group's November forecast of temporary economic improvement during the third and fourth quarters of 2011 leading into a slower economic growth path in 2012.
"Though their home price expectations have become slightly positive, consumers remain concerned about the direction of the economy and continue to view their household finances as being relatively flat," said Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. "Most Americans expect no improvement in their personal financial situation in the next 12 months and will likely remain wary about undertaking the significant financial obligation associated with homeownership until their view of their income, expenses, and job security heads in a more positive direction."
SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS
Homeownership and Renting
Twenty-two percent of respondents expect home prices to increase over the next year (up 3 percentage points since last month), while 22 percent say they expect home prices to decline, down 1 percentage point since last month. 53 percent say prices will stay the same, a 2 percentage point drop from October.
Thirty-three percent of Americans say that mortgage rates will go up over the next 12 months, down 3 percentage points from October and a return to the level seen in September.
Sixty-eight percent of respondents say it is a good time to buy a home (down by 1 percentage point since last month), and just 10 percent say it is a good time to sell, which is unchanged from the previous two months.
On average, Americans expect home rental prices to increase by 3.2 percent over the next year, a 0.1 percent decrease from October.
Just 6 percent expect a decline in home rental prices (unchanged since last month), while 41 percent of respondents believe that home rental prices will increase in the next 12 months.
Thirty-two percent of Americans say they would rent their next home, while 63 percent say they would buy, down 3 percentage points since last month and a return to the level seen in September.
The Economy and Household Finances
Seventy-five percent of Americans say the economy is off on the wrong track (down 2 percentage points since October), while just 16 percent think the economy is on the right track, unchanged since September and tying the all-time low number.
The number of respondents expecting their personal financial situation to worsen over the next 12 months has stayed at 18 percent since October.
Sixty-six percent say their income is about the same, the highest number ever to report this. Sixteen percent of those surveyed say their household income has increased over the past 12 months (down 2 percentage points since October) while 18 percent say that their income has declined significantly.
Fifty-four percent report that their expenses are about the same compared to 12 months ago (up 3 percentage points versus October). Eight percent say their household expenses have decreased over the past 12 months (down 3 percentage points since October), while 37 percent say their expenses have increased significantly.
The most detailed consumer attitudinal survey of its kind, the Fannie Mae National Housing Survey polled 1,002 Americans via live telephone interview to assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, mortgage rates, homeownership distress, the economy, household finances, and overall consumer confidence. Homeowners and renters are asked more than 100 questions used to track attitudinal shifts (findings are compared to the same survey conducted monthly beginning June 2010). Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to stabilize the housing market in the near-term, and provide support in the future.
For detailed findings from the November 2011 survey, as well as technical notes on survey methodology and the questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Fannie Mae Monthly National Housing Survey site. Also available on the site are quarterly survey results, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies. The November 2011 Fannie Mae National Housing Survey was conducted between November 1, 2011 and November 25, 2011. Interviews were conducted by Penn Schoen Berland, in coordination with Fannie Mae.
Fannie Mae exists to expand affordable housing and bring global capital to local communities in order to serve the U.S. housing market. Fannie Mae has a federal charter and operates in America's secondary mortgage market to enhance the liquidity of the mortgage market by providing funds to mortgage bankers and other lenders so that they may lend to home buyers. Our job is to help those who house America.
Follow us on Twitter: .
SOURCE Fannie Mae
Copyright (C) 2011 PR Newswire. All rights reserved

[KELLYCO]

I have a patent pending modular shear panel system that could assist in building growth around the world.The panel system can encourage more homeowner/builder projects and be utilized in rebuilding efforts such as in Japan and any other area that requires developement and rebuilding.Disaster relief,military housing and affordable housing are some other examples.The system can change the entire stick built house building industry where the United States could literally rebuild the world.I have had many website visitors from NASA ,Moscow,Asia,Japan,Isreal,Saudia Arabia,Washington DC,Canada and many more locations.The time is coming close for some real promotion.The website where product will be available is Polygon200.com

[mlkrborn]

Home builders up a bit on index improvement
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-builder-index-hits-best-level-in-17-months-2011-11-16

[mlkrborn]

Market Pulse Archives

Nov. 17, 2011, 10:01 a.m. EST
Foreclosure starts rise, delinquencies drop: MBA
Stories You Might Like


By Amy Hoak

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The percentage of mortgages entering the foreclosure process rose in the third quarter, while the seasonally adjusted delinquency rate dropped to its lowest level since 2008, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's National Delinquency Survey, released on Thursday. The foreclosure-start rate rose to 1.08% of all mortgages for one- to four-unit residential properties in the third quarter, up from 0.96% in the second quarter, yet down from 1.34% a year ago, according to the report. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted delinquency rate fell to 7.99% in the third quarter, down from 8.44% in the second quarter and 9.13% a year earlier. "While the delinquency picture changed for the better in the third quarter, the foreclosure data indicated that we are not out of the woods yet and that the issues continue to vary by geography," said Michael Fratantoni, MBA's vice president of research and economics, in a news release.

[mlkrborn]

Toll Brothers preannounces Q4 rev above consensus (TOL) 18.10 : Co preannounces Q4 rev of $427.7 mln vs $415.55 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Q4 revs and home building deliveries of ~$427.7 mln and 757 units increased 6% in dollars and 8% in units, compared to FY10's Q4 results of $402.6 mln and 700 units. FY 2011's Q4 net signed contracts of ~ $389.9 mln and 644 units rose 24% in dollars and 15% in units, compared to FY 2010's Q4 net signed contracts of $315.3 mln and 558 units. The average price of Q4 net signed contracts was $606,000, compared to $565,000 in FY 2010's fourth quarter. On a per-community basis, FY11's Q4 net signed contracts of ~ 3.04 units per community were 3% higher than FY 2010's Q4 total, 15% lower than FY 2009's Q4 total, and 63% and 46% greater than FY 2008 and FY 2007's Q4 totals, respectively. They were, however, still well below the co's historical Q4 average, dating back to 1990, of 5.87 units per community. The co's contract cancellation rate (current-quarter cancellations divided by current-quarter gross signed contracts) was ~ 7.9% in the fourth quarter of FY 2011, compared to 8.8% in 4Q10. As a percentage of beginning-quarter backlog, the cancellation rate was 3.1%. These rates were consistent with the Company's pre-downturn historical averages. The co ended FY 2011 with a backlog of ~ $981.1 mln and 1,667 units, which increased 15% in dollars and 12% in units, compared to FY 2010's year-end backlog of $852.1 mln and 1,494 units.

[mlkrborn]

Home building jumps 15 percent in September
September home building rose 15 pct., but permits for future homes fell 5 pct.


A new home development is photographed in Canonsburg, Pa., Tuesday, Oct. 18, 2011. Builders broke ground on more homes in September, but permits for future construction fell, a grim sign for the housing market. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
Derek Kravitz, AP Real Estate Writer, On Wednesday October 19, 2011, 9:34 am

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Homes were built in September at the fastest pace in 17 months, a hopeful sign for the economy.

Most of the gain was driven by a surge in volatile apartment construction, which helps boost economic growth. But other data suggest a housing recovery is far off.

Single-family home construction, which represents nearly 70 percent of homes built, rose only slightly. And building permits, a gauge of future construction, fell to a five-month low.

"Certainly there is no overbuilding going on now, so the overall result is favorable," said Pierre Ellis, an analyst at Decision Economics. "But greater optimism would have been prompted if single-family starts had increased -- suggesting that builders were seeing a better market ahead."

Builders began work in September on a seasonally adjusted 658,000 homes, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That's a 15 percent increase from August and the best pace since April 2010, when a federal homebuyers' tax credit temporarily boosted construction.

Still, the level is roughly half the 1.2 million that economists say is consistent with healthy housing markets.

Single-family homes rose 1.7 percent. And building permits fell 5 percent.

Apartment building surged 53.4 percent to its highest level in three years.

Increased apartment construction could be a sign that builders are gaining access to hard-to-get financing for projects, analysts said. It could also be a positive sign for the broader economy.

The Federal Reserve "will still be more encouraged than not, given the healthy multi-family sector -- and the positive hint about availability of financing that it gives," Ellis said.

While home construction represents a small portion of the housing market, it has an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three jobs for a year and about $90,000 in taxes, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

Overall, homebuilding fell to its lowest levels in 50 years in 2009, when builders began work on just 554,000 homes. Last year was not much better.

Cash-strapped builders are struggling to compete with deeply discounted foreclosures and short sales, when lenders allow borrowers to sell homes for less than what is owed on their mortgages. And few homes are selling.

After previous recessions, housing accounted for at least 15 percent of economic growth in the United States. Since the recession officially ended in June 2009, it has contributed just 4 percent.

New-home sales fell in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 295,000, a six-month low. This year is shaping up to be the worst since the government began keeping records a half-century ago.

Renting has become a preferred option for many Americans who lost their jobs during the recession and were forced to leave their homes. Still, the surge in apartments has not been enough to offset the loss of single-family homebuilding.

Another reason sales have fallen is that previously occupied homes are a better deal than new homes. The median price of a new home is about 30 percent higher than the median price for a re-sale. That's almost twice the markup in a healthy housing market.

The trade group said Tuesday that its survey of industry sentiment rose this month to 18, the highest level in 17 months. Still, the index has been below 20 for all but one month during the past two years. Any reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the housing market. The index hasn't reached 50 since April 2006, the peak of the housing boom.

[mlkrborn]

Home builders 'feeling" better!

Oct. 18, 2011, 10:01 a.m. EDT · CORRECTED
NAHB home-builder gauge jumps 4 points to 18
Stories You Might Like




By Steve Goldstein

Fixes to reflect that April 2010 was when the homebuyer tax credit ended.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Home-builder confidence in October rose by the largest amount since the ending of the now-expired home-buyer tax credit program, though the gauge remains mired at historically weak levels, according to an index released Tuesday. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose by four points to 18, the biggest one-month gain since April 2010. The index, which measures builder confidence in the market for new-built single-family homes and is closely correlated with single-family housing starts data, came in stronger than the 14 reading seen by a MarketWatch-compiled economist poll. That said, the index - designed so that a reading of 50 is consistent with a "good" assessment - is still not back to pre-recession levels. The index hasn't been above 50 since April 2006.

[mlkrborn]

Barclay ups several homebuilders..

[mlkrborn]

US Home Builders' Sentiment Falls In September
Last update: 9/19/2011 10:00:00 AM


By Alan Zibel and Jeff Bater
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The mood of U.S. home builders soured this month, as the industry coped with a stagnating economy and pessimism among consumers.
The National Association of Home Builders said Monday its housing market index fell to 14 in September, down from 15 a month earlier. The results were worse than expected. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a reading of 15.
All three components of the index decreased. Readings for traffic from potential buyers and expectations for single-family sales in the next six months both fell by two points. A gauge of current sales conditions fell by one point.
Builders are pessimistic because many consumers "are simply unwilling or unable to move forward with a home purchase in today's uncertain economic climate," said David Crowe, the NAHB's top economist. "While some bright spots are beginning to emerge in about a dozen select metro areas, the broader picture remains fairly bleak due to the weak economy and job market."
The numbers used in compiling the index are adjusted for seasonal variations. A reading of 50 in the NAHB index would mean more builders view conditions as good rather than poor. The last time the home builders' confidence gauge was in positive territory was April 2006.
Weakness in the economy, combined with still-falling home prices and tight credit, are making many consumers shy away from the housing market. Meanwhile, many consumers have been opting for deeply discounted foreclosures.
The trade group's chairman, Bob Nielsen, a home builder from Reno, Nev., also noted that "both builder and consumer confidence took a hit in recent weeks" after the Standard & Poor's downgrade of the nation's credit rating and the contentious debate in Congress about whether to lift the federal debt ceiling.
The September index was based on a survey of 478 builders. It fell in three out of four U.S. regions, sinking in the Northeast, South and West but increasing in the Midwest.
-By Alan Zibel, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9263; [e-mail]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 19, 2011 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT)

[mlkrborn]

Looks like one Builder may buy PHM?
Opportunity Within Market Turmoil - Research Report on PulteGroup, Inc. and D.R. Horton, Inc.
marketwire



Related Quotes
Symbol Price Change
DHI 9.61 +0.16
Chart for D.R. Horton, Inc. Common Stock
Follow these stocks

Press Release Source: Equity Markets Inc On Thursday August 25, 2011, 9:00 am EDT

MACAU--(Marketwire -08/25/11)- Today, www.EquityMarketsInc.com announced its research report highlighting PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM - News) and D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE: DHI - News). Full content and research is available at www.EquityMarketsInc.com/research.php.

Continued confidence in long-term U.S. debt is defying S&P's recent downgrade. Treasury yields continue at their lowest levels since January 1, 2011 as the market moved to "safe investments" weary of the storm clouds ahead. Winds can change however, as a last-minute move to save the U.S. from a historic default on its debt obligations. Attentions are now turned to the situation in Europe, with the health of the Euro in the balance; bankers are looking to prevent defaults on Italian and Spanish debt.

As a result of recent credit adjustments, opportunity is being marked for investors to take advantage of equities with high-margin and specialty products. Market-wise investors are carefully watching for value within equities boasting established pipelines and excellent growth prospects. As part of this process, the following companies have been introduced with initial research reports available online.

Equity Markets has reviewed PulteGroup, Inc. as a company which is primarily engaged in the homebuilding business. PulteGroup also has mortgage banking operations, conducted principally through Pulte Mortgage LLC. Its homebuilding business involves the acquisition and development of land primarily for residential purposes within the continental United States and the construction of housing on such land for first-time, first and second move-up, and adult home buyers. The full research report on PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM - News) is available here: www.EquityMarketsInc.com/researchfile4634.php.

Equity Markets is covering D.R. Horton, Inc. as a homebuilding company in the United States. It constructs and sells homes through its operating divisions in 26 states and 72 metropolitan markets of the United States, primarily under the name of D.R. Horton, America's Builder. The full research report on D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE: DHI - News) is available here: www.EquityMarketsInc.com/researchfile4891.php.

About Equity Markets
Our mission at Equity Markets is to be the best source of content and research, while educating, enlightening and informing investors. Equity Markets combines street smart analysts and professional market researchers to provide investors with detailed company profiles and market coverage.

[mlkrborn]

Fannie Mae Housing Survey Shows 64% Pessimistic On US Economy
Last update: 8/15/2011 10:35:18 AM


DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


Fannie Mae's (FNMA) second-quarter national housing survey reveals that 64% of American homeowners and renters say the economy is on the wrong track, the most pessimistic view since the survey's inception in the first quarter of 2010.
"Consumers are more cautious due to concerns over employment and household finances," said Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. "As a result, consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the economy, ground to a halt in the second quarter. Consumers are more hesitant to take on additional financial commitments, and a setback to confidence means a setback to the recovery of the housing market."
For the month of July, the survey found that 70% now believe the economy is on the wrong track, with just 23% saying the economy is heading in the right direction.
Most Americans, 53%, think it would be difficult to get a home mortgage today, and the doubt increases to 71% among renters.
Furthermore, 26% of mortgage borrowers say they are underwater, up from 23% in the first quarter survey.
The results are based on 3,002 telephone interviews of Americans aged 18 and older from April 4 to June 28.
A senior Standard & Poor's analyst said earlier Monday that the U.S. economy isn't likely to slip back into recession although the risks have increased. Investor sentiment was spooked after the agency this month handed the U.S. its first downgrade from triple-A by a major ratings firm.
-By Melodie Warner, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2283; [e-mail]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires

[mlkrborn]

Shares of home builders are faring notably worse than the broader market in the wake of S&P's downgrade of the US. Among the potential impacts that have been bandied about is higher borrowing costs for consumers. Increased mortgage rates are probably the last thing a market that is already suffering from a lack of buyers needs. Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV, $1.29, -$0.11, -7.86%), considered one of the sector's weakest players, is taking one of the biggest hits, while PulteGroup Inc. (PHM, $4.89, -$0.39, -7.39%) and Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH, $1.99, -$0.16, -7.44%) are also down.

[mlkrborn]

Home sales fell to 2011 low, few 1st-time buyers
May home sales sank nearly 4 pct. to lowest point since November; foreclosure sales decline
ap


In this June 9, 2011 photo, a "sold" notice is posted on the "for sale" sign of a house, in Seattle. Fewer people purchased previously occupied homes in May, bringing sales down to their lowest level of the year.(AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Derek Kravitz, AP Real Estate Writer, On Tuesday June 21, 2011, 10:40 am

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Fewer people purchased previously occupied homes in May, lowering sales to their weakest point of the year.

Home sales sank 3.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.81 million homes, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Economists say that's far below the 6 million homes per year sold in healthy housing markets.

Since the housing boom went bust in 2006, sales have fallen in four of the past five years. Analysts said they expect sales to level off at about 5 million per year. That's not much better than the 4.91 million homes sold last year, the worst showing in 13 years.

The depressed housing market has weighed on the broader economy. Declining home prices have kept people from selling their houses and moving to find jobs in growing areas. They have also made people feel less wealthy. That has reduced consumer spending, which drives 70 percent of economic activity.

The housing market has struggled because fewer first-time buyers are entering the market. The number of first-timers ticked down to 35 percent of sales last month. Typically, they drive half of sales in healthy markets.

First-time buyers are critical because they improve their properties and invest in their communities, a combination that raises home values. And their purchases allow sellers to move up to pricier homes.

Instead, the market has been saturated with foreclosures, which force prices down. Sales of homes at risk of foreclosure fell in May. But they still made up 31 percent of all purchases. And a large number of pending foreclosures are backlogged in the courts or held up by state and federal probes into troubled foreclosure practices by lenders.

Until the glut of foreclosures are cleared and people think it's a safe time to buy a house, "it is unlikely that home prices can recover on a sustained basis," said Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics.

Bigger down payments, tougher lending rules, heavy credit-card and student-loan debt and a shortage of desirable starter homes are keeping many would-be buyers away. Even some who do have enough money for a down payment and a solid credit history are holding off, worried that home prices will keep falling.

Investors are filling some of the void. They are spending cash to scoop up deeply discounted homes in hard-hit areas of Phoenix, Las Vegas and Tampa. Last month, investors accounted for 19 percent of all sales.

All the while, previously occupied homes are cheap and in great supply.

Re-sold homes are a bargain compared to new homes. The median sales price for a previously occupied home in May was $166,500. The median price of a new home is nearly 31 percent higher than the median price for a re-sale, or twice the normal markup.

The gap is largely because of the flood of foreclosures or short sales -- when the lender accepts less than what is owed on the mortgage. A record 1 million homes were lost to foreclosures last year and foreclosure tracker RealtyTrac Inc. expects 1.2 million more will be lost this year.

Another problem for the housing market is the glut of unsold homes. In May, the supply fell slightly to 3.72 million homes. At last month's sales pace, it would take more than 9 months to clear those homes. Homes priced for less than $100,000 are selling briskly but more expensive homes are having trouble finding buyers. Analysts say a healthy supply can be cleared in six months.

The situation is much worse when taking into account the "shadow inventory" of homes, economists say. These are homes that are in the early stages of the foreclosure process but, because of backlogged courts or the government probes, have not hit the market for re-sale.

Sales fell across most regions of the country. In May, sales dropped 6.4 percent in the Midwest, 5.1 percent in the South and 2.5 percent in the Northeast. There was no change in the West.

[mlkrborn]

Market Pulse Archives

June 21, 2011, 10:00 a.m. EDT
May existing home sales fall to 6-month low
Stories You Might Like


By Greg Robb

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Sales of existing single-family homes and condos fell 3.8% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.81 million, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. This is the lowest level since November. The decline was in line with forecasts. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected sales to fall to 4.80 million units in May, based on a sharp 12% drop in pending home sales in April. Existing home sales fell a revised 1.8% in April to 5.0 million units, down from the initial estimate of a 0.8% fall to 5.05 million units. The median price of homes sold was down 4.6% in May from last year at $166,500. Inventories of existing homes for sale fell 1.0% to 3.72 million units in May, representing a 9.3 months' supply, up from 9.0 months in April.

[up-down]

Hovnanian Paints Weak Picture for Homebuilder ETFs

June 8th at 6:44am by Tom Lydon

Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) reported quarterly earnings late Tuesday, painting a dismal outlook for homebuilder shares and exchange traded funds.

The builder lost 69 cents per share, more than analysts were expecting. Wall Street was anticipating a 51 cent loss per share.

A 17% drop in new home orders was the backdrop to Hovnanian’s deliveries sinking 19% after Tuesday’s closing bell. Alex Veiga for Forbes reports that Ara Hovnanian, the builder’s chief executive, wrote the Spring selling season off as a dud, however, net contracts for new homes were up 28% in May from the previous year.

“In a typical bubble, the last stage is when market participants reach a state of despair. We think that seems a fairly good description of current views on housing. Foreclosures and home prices are the most common topics of despair; however, we find typical concerns to be overstated. The foreclosure pipeline has been shrinking for over a year, and now even later pipeline stages are falling,” says a Deutsche Bank analyst on the housing market.

“As long as job growth continues to organically boost demand, we think housing volumes and pricing will again show positive trends in spite of housing’s headwinds,” says the analyst. [Homebuilder ETFs Higher on Sales Report.]

Hovnanian is anticipating an improved fiscal situation fort he second half of 2011. The loss of the first-time homebuyers credit and weak jobs market have affected homebuilders and the real estate market across the board.

SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSEArca: XHB) dropped 0.5% on Tuesday, and lost 4% over the past 10 days. iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund (NYSEArca: ITB) fell 0.8% Tuesday, after trending down 3.5% over the past 10 days. [Housing ETFs Gain on Toll Brothers.]

http://www.etftrends.com/2011/06/hovnanian-paints-weak-picture-for-homebuilder-etfs/

[up-down]

Pulte-Centex Create Major Homebuilder Merger (PHM, CTX, XHB)

Posted: April 8, 2009 at 5:16 am
Print Email
inShare0

Pulte Homes, Inc. (NYSE: PHM) is acquiring Centex Corporation (NYSE: CTX) in a stock-for-stock transaction valued at $3.1 billion, including $1.8 billion of net debt. The deal has been unanimously approved by both boards of directors. This is a deal which came out of nowhere, at least as far as the speculation game would have indicated. Centex common holders will receive 0.975 shares of Pulte common stock for each share, and as April 7, 2009 the transaction has a value of $10.50 per Centex share. This represents a pre-dilution premium of 32.6% to the 20-day volume weighted average trading price of Centex’s shares.

The combined company will have the strongest liquidity position among its peer group with more than $3.4 billion of cash as of March 31, 2009. Pulte and Centex ended March with approximately $1.7 billion of cash each. In 2008, Pulte and Centex delivered more than 39,000 closings with combined pro forma revenues of $11.6 billion.

The combined company currently would have an equity market capitalization of $4.1 billion and an enterprise value of $7.2 billion. Pulte shareholders will own approximately 68% of the combined company.

The companies expect to retire in excess of 41 billion in debt, and expect to save $350 million per year in efficiencies.

Centex is indicated over $8.00 after a $7.62 close; 52-week range is $4.91 to $26.09. Pulte is indicated around $10.00 after a $10.77 close; its 452-week range is $6.49 to $17.32. We will likely see some activity early on in the SPDR S&P Hombuilder (NYSE: XHB) ETF.

Depending upon where these two close and depending on how the other stocks react in the sector, this will be the largest US homebuilder by market cap. Desperate times calls for desperate measures.

Read more: Pulte-Centex Create Major Homebuilder Merger (PHM, CTX, XHB) - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/2009/04/08/pulte-centex-create-major-homebuilder-merger-phm-ctx/#ixzz1OoDLVp6M

[up-down]

June, a good month for building, isn't showing up in the pps

Turning the corner today though!

[mlkrborn]

U.S. housing starts rose 7.2% in March to an annualized rate of 549,000, while building permits increased 11.2%, the government reported Tuesday. Housing starts in February were revised up to 512,000 from an earlier estimate of 479,000. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected March starts to climb to an annual rate of 520,000.

[mlkrborn]

8:06AM KB Home misses by $1.22, misses on revs (KBH) 12.20 : Reports Q1 (Feb) GAAP loss of $1.49 per share, $1.22 worse than the Thomson Reuters consensus of ($0.27); revenues fell 25.4% year/year to $196.9 mln vs the $223.6 mln consensus. Net orders totaled 1,302 in the first quarter of 2011, down 32% from 1,913 net orders generated in the same period of 2010. The year-over-year comparison was negatively affected in part by heightened activity in the 2010 first quarter stemming from a federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers that was available during that period. The co's cancellation rate as a percentage of gross orders increased to 29% in the 2011 first quarter from 22% in the year-earlier quarter. As a percentage of beginning backlog, the cancellation rate was 39% in the first quarter of 2011 and 26% in the year-earlier quarter. The number of homes in backlog at February 28, 2011 decreased 38% on a year-over-year basis to 1,689 from 2,713, while the projected future revenues in backlog declined 32% to ~$353.6 million at February 28, 2011... The co delivered 949 homes in the first quarter of 2011, down 28% from the same period of 2010, with decreases in each of the Company's geographic regions. The co's first-quarter average selling price rose 4% from the year-earlier period to $205,700, with increases of 1%, 7% and 26% in the co's West Coast, Central and Southeast regions, respectively, partly offset by a 6% decrease in the Southwest region. "As this year's spring selling season has commenced, we are encouraged by the higher traffic we experienced in the first quarter compared to a year ago, as well as the sequential improvement in our monthly net order levels during the quarter."

[mlkrborn]

SPDR Homebuilders gaps down, holding thus far near last week's low and its 50 sma at 18.01/18.01 (XHB) 18.05 -0.17 : KBH -8.1%, LEN -2.1%, MDC -1.6%, MTH -1.4%, PHM -2.6%, SPF -0.9%, TOL -1.9% ITB -1.4%, DHI -2.4%.

[mlkrborn]

UPDATE: KB Home 1Q Loss Widens As Revenue, Orders Plunge
Date : 04/05/2011 @ 10:03AM
Source : Dow Jones News
Stock : KB Home (KBH)
Quote : 11.24 -0.96 (-7.87%) @ 7:52AM

UPDATE: KB Home 1Q Loss Widens As Revenue, Orders Plunge
KB Home (NYSE:KBH)
Intraday Stock Chart

Today : Tuesday 5 April 2011
Click Here for more KB Home Charts.

Builder KB Home's (KBH) fiscal first-quarter loss widened sharply as plunging orders fueled a steep revenue drop and charges weighed on the bottom line.

Shares plunged 7.7% to $11.26 in premarket trading.

Like most builders, Los Angeles-based KB Home faced a tough year-over-year comparison because the federal tax credit that expired in early 2010 pulled demand forward. Since then, the industry has seen sales fall off dramatically.In the latest period, KB Home's deliveries tumbled 28%, while net orders dropped 32%.

Still, builders say they're optimistic because consumer visits to model homes and sales centers have picked up recently.

[mlkrborn]

Jobs Key to Housing Recovery, Not More Govt. Intervention, Mortgage Expert Says
Posted Mar 16, 2011 12:43pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein
Related: xbh, len, tol, fnm, FRE, KBH, SPY


Get ready for a showdown between the Obama administration and the banking industry over the mortgage market. Described as a "shock and awe" approach, the White House wants the nation's five largest banks to reduce the principle on mortgages in an effort to reduce monthly payments for struggling homewoners, reports the Huffington Post.

The White House hopes the plan will take effect in the next six months may cover as many as three million distressed homeowners. This new modified mortgage plan could cost Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Ally Financial as much as $30 billion, according to unnamed sources cited in the Huffington Post report.

"The banks are going to fight this tooth and nail," says Paul Muolo, executive editor of National Mortgage News and author of “Chain of Blame: How Wall Street Cause the Mortgage and Credit Crisis.”

If implemented the plan will lead to a "horrible precedent for the industry," he tells Aaron and Henry in the accompanying clip.

Muolo raises two key problems with the plan:

Legality "There's something called rule of law. The mortgage contracts are legal contracts and there's nothing in those original loan documents that say they should write-down the principle in the event of a default," he argues.

Not a Solution Like the White house's first attempt at this - HAMP - Muolo says there's no reason to believe a principle write-down will prevent foreclosures, just delay them.

Nearing a Bottom?

The key to finding a bottom in the housing market is not government intervention, it's employment, Muolo argues. "If you want to help someone with their mortgage, help them with their job, get them back to work and they'll pay their mortgage," he says.

The good news is, we are getting closer to that bottom. Muolo estimates the balance between supply and demand may tip back to sellers in the next year or so. We're closer to a healthy equilibrium judging by the February housing starts data released today. Home construction dropped 22.5% last month to a seasonally adjusted 479,000 homes - the lowest level since April 2009 and the second-lowest on the books.

[mlkrborn]

New housing starts jumped! Good sign!

[mlkrborn]

Oct. 19, 2010, 8:30 a.m. EDT
Sept. housing starts up 0.3% to 610,000
Related stories

* Housing starts rise 0.3% to 610,000 in September (Oct. 19)

Story Comments Screener
Share
By Greg Robb

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - New construction of U.S. houses expanded for the third straight month in September, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. Starts rose 0.3% in September to a seasonally adjusted 610,000 annualized units, much stronger than the 578,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. This is the highest level of starts since April. Starts of new single-family homes rose by 4.4% to 452,000 in September, while starts of large apartment units fell 9.7% to 158,000. Building permits, a leading indicator of housing construction, fell 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 539,000. This is the lowest level of permits since April 2009.

[mlkrborn]

HMI

Reported by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), the Housing Market Index (HMI) is not a data point economists generally forecast, and so we have no consensus forecast to prepare you with. The report considers homebuilder feelings on the current situation and future prospects for the next six months. Last month's data showed builder confidence declined for the third consecutive month in August, with the HMI falling a point to a level of 13. It was the lowest level reported by the NAHB since March of 2009, not coincidentally the low point for the stock market.