Toll Brothers preannounces Q4 rev above consensus (TOL) 18.10 : Co preannounces Q4 rev of $427.7 mln vs $415.55 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Q4 revs and home building deliveries of ~$427.7 mln and 757 units increased 6% in dollars and 8% in units, compared to FY10's Q4 results of $402.6 mln and 700 units. FY 2011's Q4 net signed contracts of ~ $389.9 mln and 644 units rose 24% in dollars and 15% in units, compared to FY 2010's Q4 net signed contracts of $315.3 mln and 558 units. The average price of Q4 net signed contracts was $606,000, compared to $565,000 in FY 2010's fourth quarter. On a per-community basis, FY11's Q4 net signed contracts of ~ 3.04 units per community were 3% higher than FY 2010's Q4 total, 15% lower than FY 2009's Q4 total, and 63% and 46% greater than FY 2008 and FY 2007's Q4 totals, respectively. They were, however, still well below the co's historical Q4 average, dating back to 1990, of 5.87 units per community. The co's contract cancellation rate (current-quarter cancellations divided by current-quarter gross signed contracts) was ~ 7.9% in the fourth quarter of FY 2011, compared to 8.8% in 4Q10. As a percentage of beginning-quarter backlog, the cancellation rate was 3.1%. These rates were consistent with the Company's pre-downturn historical averages. The co ended FY 2011 with a backlog of ~ $981.1 mln and 1,667 units, which increased 15% in dollars and 12% in units, compared to FY 2010's year-end backlog of $852.1 mln and 1,494 units.
