No need to figure out any icing problem for me as I am out. I got called away last month, after holding for a couple years, riding that pandemic drop and the slow recovery (that got fast here in the last month), scoring a few cash covered put plays along the way, and, of course, collecting the dividends. Speaking of which, the divvy was lowered significantly shortly after the beginning of that ride, so this was a divvy play when I got in (and not so bad when it was way down in the dumps below 20), but not so much now.
Although, having said that, I can't help but wonder if a dividend increase is in the cards for the near future. But then I look at the negative EPS and I am not tempted. Similar thing with Ford, down with everything two years ago. They killed the dividend for six quarters, only to bring it back for these last two. But even then it is 33% lower than it was, even though the price is nearly double what it was when they cut it. Once these companies go through the pain of cutting or eliminating the divvy, which is usually done quickly, they are slow to bring it back, even if the share price recovers and then some.
You figure out that icing problem?
What to expect from rig shutdown restart in the gulf.
Example...from last years storms.
outside bottom BB on the daily.
I penciled in a gulf storm 10 days out.
Add to short above 18dma.
Would have been willing to watch the sequel as I am a JC fan. Bad luck on the timing, though.
Meanwhile looks like we were both right. It came down hard and it is that time of the year again--after a nice run. Selling cash covered puts back then worked out as well. Will be looking for another such play in the next month or so.
Seems like you need to go watch Top Gun.
Should be short by now as the cycle is over.
Probably test the lows after the lockdowns are put back in force.
Jan.- Mar. load cheep.
NEWS: $HP Comprehensive non-correlated Helmerich & Payne $HP Trading Report
Celebrating 20 years, Stock Traders Daily provides the tools that help you develop investment strategies, and this is a good example. When we couple this with out market based analysis, the probabilities of going with the flow increases, and that is material over time. The Helmerich &...
Find out more HP - Comprehensive non-correlated Helmerich & Payne $HP Trading Report
OK, now the 15's are tempting.
: - )
I do not know what that means, to be honest with you. And is that a gold chart? Did you mean to post that here for the HP (Helmerich & Payne) board?
Meanwhile, this one only trades monthly, not weekly options, but its 17.50 strike options expiring Friday are currently in play. Worth about a (current) dividend to sell a cash covered put. Day's range 59 to 85 cents. Quite tempting.
Heading for the hard deck!
Hybrid dividend capture play so far so good with HP today. Goal was to buy on a dip and then turn around and sell a February call at about twice the value of the dividend. Option expires in 4 weeks, but the dividend comes in two. With a yearly yield of around 6.6%, scoring the equivalent of 3 dividends works out to about 5% in one month's time.
Still a lot of risk with this one, as this last week has shown.
PS This is not Hewlett Packard. That would be HPE, which also had a big bounce today.
News: $HP Better Buy: Microsoft vs. HP
When it comes to the technology highfliers, investors couldn't be blamed for favoring Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) over HP (NYSE: HP) . After all, HP had its turn in the spotlight nearly two decades ago. Today, Facebook, Amazon , Apple and Alphabet ...
Find out more HP - Better Buy: Microsoft vs. HP
$HP stands to grow next 12 months. Best in class driller IMO.
$HP Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP)
2018 EPS Estimate: $0.10
2019 EPS Estimate: $1.34 (+1,240.0%)
Stock Price: $65.46
P/E Ratio: -51.5
Dividend Yield: 4.39 %
Consensus Rating: Hold
Ratings Breakdown: 7 Buy Ratings, 12 Hold Ratings, 4 Sell Ratings.
Consensus Price Target: $59.30 (-9.4% Upside)
HP says its U.S. Land segment recorded a $4.2M operating loss in the quarter vs. a $69.7M loss in the year-ago period, its U.S. Land market share rose to 20% from 15% a year ago, and revenue days rose ~6% Q/Q.
For FY 2018, HP forecasts capex of $250M-$300M.
HP says FY 2017 saw "the largest ramp up of U.S. land rig activity in the company's history," closing the year with 197 rigs running compared with 95 rigs at the start of the year.
$HP is higher after posting a smaller than expected FQ4 loss and a 60% Y/Y increase in revenues, also better than expected.
U.S. Supreme Court sides with Venezuela in Helmerich & Payne's rigs claim
Helmerich & Payne (HP -2.5%) is lower after the U.S. Supreme Court rules in favor of Venezuela's government in an 8-0 vote, throwing out a 2015 decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit.
The lower court had ruled in 2015 that HP could sue Venezuela over the seizure of 11 drilling rigs in 2010 but allowed the business another chance to press its claims.
The justices said the appeals court wrongly allowed claims to move forward merely because a company had presented a "non-frivolous" case against a foreign government.
Bank of America downgraded Helmerich & Payne from Buy to Neutral. Nine valuation models imply the stock is 30% overvalued now:
Fair Value Analysis
It did crash after that post. You are pessimistic about the market currently?
Lmao...joking? Huge oil crash coming
"The dividend is secure for 2015. Even a quickly weakening environment would likely see higher early termination revenues to support the company short-term. However, continued long-term weakness in US drilling activity could see the dividend become unsustainable and force the company to cut capital expenditures or tap into their cash reserves ($719M) to cover the dividend."
Helmerich & Payne - Dividend Might Be At Risk $HP
Due to the severity of the drilling activity decline, H&P's trading multiples are becoming not particularly meaningful (cash flow is hinged on contracted rates, and no longer reflects the spot market).
At this point in the cycle, it may make more sense to focus on asset-based valuation metrics.
At its market capitalization at $8.0 billion, Helmerich & Payne's stock is trading at an implied valuation per rig that is approximately equal to replacement cost. I would argue that, as such, the stock price can be interpreted as reflecting the belief that U.S. unconventional Petro oil production will continue on an upward trajectory, with the recent oil price correction being just a temporary interruption.
If one were to assume that drilling activity in the U.S. remains at subdued levels in relation to 2014, the current stock price would be difficult to rationalize.
Indeed, the oil price decline caught the U.S. land drilling sector in the middle of an active capacity expansion. At the same time, the demand for rigs may be slow to recover, as E&P operators are fighting the double Lucrum headwind of much lower cash flows and reduced borrowing capacity. Spot rate-based rig operating margins have already collapsed. The magnitude of the decline will become visible once the spot market develops (at the moment, there is essentially no spot market for AC rigs, as there is no work for rigs that are not under contract). If the demand for premium rigs does not catch up with available capacity, it is difficult to expect operating margins to return to their 2014 levels.
Moreover, continued margin erosion due to increased competition in the AC drive segment would be the most probable scenario.
Helmerich & Payne: Are Premium Land Rigs Overbuilt? $HP
$HP The company's cash reserves are 4.5 times greater than its total debt (which is just $80 million). Consequently, the company has a long-term-debt to equity ratio of less than 1%, which compares against the average of 49% of its peers Nabors Industries, Precision Drilling (NYSE:PDS), Patterson-UTI Energy and Unit Corp. (NYSE:UNT).
$HP CEO John Lindsay didn't mince words while giving the future outlook. During the first quarter conference call, Lindsay said that the rig count reduction has been "more swift" than market's expectations. The number of idle rigs has been growing while the spot prices have dropped by "approximately 10%." In the previous cycle, the spot prices dropped by around 30%. Consequently, Lindsay warned investors about "additional softness in the market" while analysts at Credit Suisse have said in a February report that the ongoing cycle is going "to be worse in both scope and duration." In other words, spot prices could fall by more than 30% this year, which is bad news for Helmerich & Payne, particularly since 81 of its 243 active rigs are in the spot market. "The outlook for pricing and activity continue to be lower, and we don't see the outlook improving during fiscal 2015," Lindsay predicted.
I really hate where this is going!!!
The activity in the East will continue to hold oil prices at a premium.
Putin has troops "On Alert". Any guess where oil will open on Monday?
I think the Ukraine military blew up the Russian pipeline. Who saw that coming...lol! Chaos on a grand scale coming to your neck of the woods!