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WTI creeps back up to $84 and the global military industrial complex continues to “stimulate” production of both weapons and replacements for everything destroyed
Looks like a bridge and a shipload of TEU miles to replace now as well
GSPE sits in a little niche microcap/independent E&P zone
The majors have ample drillable inventory for the near future, so the opportunity to tap the value in GulfSlope is certainly geared to partners who have the $ resources but not the level of capability or track record in discovery, that GSPE brings to the table
Spring has gotten me more unplugged and off-grid lately
The speckled trout and redfish are feeling the pressure
The tape here has been pretty blank lately but still on watch for anything anomalous, curious, or ridiculous
Cheers
spec
No significant volume still
WTI hovers in the low $80s (currently $81.75)
It was a hammock day anyway
Hump day cheers
spec
and some brass
Just to be clear to all readers, even though the Department of Energy (DOE) has always released the EIA Annual Energy Outlook in prior general election years (at least as far back as 2000), the DOE has declared it will NOT be releasing one in 2024, although the DOE will continue issuing the EIA’s monthly Short-term Energy Outlook.
Considering that the World relies heavily on hydrocarbons, and the data from this annual report is often referenced when companies are reporting financial results to shareholders, or planning business strategies and budgets, this is definitely a curious occurrence.
The good news is the DOE will be issuing the EIA Annual Energy Outlook once again in 2025. Better late than never, especially since this Outlook includes projections out to 2050.
And despite all of the DOE’s efforts to hinder oil exploration, the Tau lease remains active. It is by now obvious the Tau partners are resilient enough to roll with the punches and stay off the ropes.
In view of the unprecedented actions, policies, regulations, and general hostility directed towards the Oil and Gas Industry by this administration, the presidential election cannot come soon enough.
So, …. Hit the Road Joe….
And do not come back no mo’.
Meanest Ol’ Woman,
Mrs. Smith
That’s a great observation and an interesting anomaly in the EIA report (delay)
That’s a huge divergence from the normal mid-March report release, 8 months late!
And I think your instinct on the reasoning for the change is accurate
Even though the current administration has total control of the content of the narrative, and partial control of the actual data, there must be consensus that there’s no way to craft the report into a “net positive” for the party
So, they just push it to be released after the general election, pure political hackery
And it’s likely that Delek is not interested in participating in another drilling campaign until there is a big change in US domestic energy policy
In retrospect, I know the economic and regulatory conditions have been unfavorable under the current administration, but now it’s a lot clearer that the hurdles were far more than I had imagined
The turbulence in global geopolitics has only intensified with each passing month
I wish we didn’t all have to pay the FO price caused by the FA of those responsible for this situation
Can’t wait to be back in “Drill Baby Drill” status
Western civilization is at an inflection point
It might have been an understatement when I predicted the biggest commodity super cycle in my lifetime
Much broader implications
It will be a benefit to the entire world population if we set the sails correctly
Cheers
spec
Something to think about regarding the Department of Energy’s EIA ‘Annual Energy Outlook for 2024’.
The Outlook is being delayed until after the general election. So the next annual forecast will not be issued until the Spring of 2025.
This is a remarkable new change in protocols but perhaps not that uncommon for the bureaucrats in this current administration.
Could this be due to concerns regarding how their base will react to a forecast that reflects growth for crude prices, oil and gas production, and fossil fuel consumption?
Elections affect many things. Those that believe elections do not matter are wrong.
What will be the first proposed legislation of 2025 if things change up “bigly” in November? Considering the foremost Bill introduced to the 118th Congress (H.R. 1) was focused on lowering energy costs through strengthening domestic energy production, exports and infrastructure, I will go with legislation or executive orders on ENERGY.
Surely the Tau partners are not the only ones who recall these executive orders under the previous administration.
*13783 of March 2017 - ‘Promoting Energy Independence and Economic Growth’
*13795 of April 2017 - ‘Implementing an America-First Offshore Energy Strategy’,
*13867 of April 2019 - ‘Issuance of Permits With Respect to Facilities’…,
*13868 of April 2019 - ‘Promoting Energy Infrastructure and Energy Growth’
I wonder what influence DJT’s Executive Order - 13795 ‘Implementing an America-First Offshore Energy Strategy’ had on Delek’s decision to partner in the Tau prospect. Conversely, I wonder what effect the Big Guy’s hostility towards oil exploration is having on the Tau2?
After all, this is an Industry that features high investment combined with high risk, and the last thing a partner wants to deal with is a lack of support from the federal government.
The bottom line as I see it is, this can be a big deal for our side if DJT wins. Just saying.
Recalling his ongoing mantra “Drill Baby, Drill”.
Wishing all a joyous Easter.
Mrs. Smith
The Tau BOEM lease G36121 remains “active”, but no SEC filings at this time.
The theme of this post is a true oil exploration story. And the wildcatting moral of the story is essentially ‘if you quit, you will not find it’. But please remember to guard against overlooking the real risks facing the company in the pursuit of a GOM discovery.
Two large international energy companies decided to become partners in an exploration plan drilling for offshore oil.
Six years later, one partner dropped out after millions of dollars were spent, and only a few dry holes resulted.
But the other partner continued on alone, while following trusted seismic data, and found new partners.
The following year (2015), the first discovery was made. Since then, other successful wells have been drilled. And developmental drilling continues.
It is estimated that these reserves are 3X larger than those of Saudi Arabia. A big deal discovery for sure…. Kudos to these exploration professionals.
The company that dropped out (Shell) is scrambling around searching for other drilling blocks in the area with potential for a similar result.
The company that continued on (Exxon) has created wealth for their new partners, their shareholders, and the country of Guyana (which is now considered to have the world’s fastest growing economy as a result of this discovery of more than 11 billion barrels of oil and gas reserves). It is estimated that by 2027 oil output in Guyana will be over 1.2 million barrels per day (currently 645K bpd).
Despite the huge differences between Gulfslope and Exxon, there are a couple of parallels to point out. If there exists good seismic data worthy of confidence, and if the partners are determined to continue the search, then the potential for success still remains. Additionally, Gulfslope obtained much desirable data and drilling experience from the Tau1. Who knows what the future holds?
If any readers see this post as being too optimistic regarding the prospects for the company, I say this is just the way the oil exploration and drilling business works. I offer no encouragement or enticement for following any particular path.
Mrs. Smith
The March 2024 EIA Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecast growth in 2024 and 2025 for Domestic and International Petroleum and Liquids Production and Consumption. Note: This takes into account the increase in GOM production as well.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/tables/pdf/3atab.pdf
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/tables/pdf/4atab.pdf
The EIA also forecasts the “average price” of WTI to remain above $80/bbl in 2024 and 2025.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/tables/pdf/2tab.pdf
I consider this good news for energy investors.
Mrs. Smith
The GSPE tape is about as exciting as a curling match
Zzzzzzzzzzzz
Meanwhile, a number of conflicts and movements globally are continuing to drive the bus erratically
No shortage of trigger points for escalation and all the smart folks in the room know that weaponized trade and fiat currencies are a very dangerous combination
Civilization inflection point has arrived
spec
WTI slips back from $83 early in the week to $80 currently
In the old gaff-rigged schooner days it was a well worn adage that “Gentlemen don’t sail to windward”
Similarly, my working theory is that the upstream independent exploitation market space was nuked by regulatory constraints as well as socio-financial headwinds
Of course the onset of those were coincidental with the global disaster of Covid
So, at least a plausible course of action after Tau1 failed short, was to just hunker down and be ready to strike if the winds and tides allow a favorable exploration operation
Picking up existing producing properties would obviously have the bulk of production equipment/overhead already completed
Adding a subsea tieback to a platform and drilling subsalt from the shelf … low cost, low carbon
Light, sweet, crude in premium quality sandstone reservoirs
Well, that’s the plan from the beginning
Maybe plan B could be a ihub gofundme and we just pass the hat till we get $40M or whatever
Plan A is a good plan and that’s what I’m looking for
Cheers
spec
GSPE Happy St Patrick’s Day 🇮🇪🧙🍀
Does management intend on filing here soon? End of this month they will enter the grace period of 15 days before entering expert market.
Yup, classic market maker fuckery
Hopefully it’s a blip on the radar and still on to bigger things in the future.
Those little ASK slaps earlier might have been a move to draw more shares/bidders on the bid
Then drop a block on the bid, ugh
spec
Moved up to .0008 before close so only a 33% drop, not 41%…
Dang was the past few days nice little bid/ask bump a set up for today’s massive 41% drop? Ughhhh I was hoping maybe we turned a corner.
Hardly any volume but that ASK is so firm you could bounce a quarter off of it
Someone just did
well, a little more than a quarter, but not much
Meanwhile, the tax man lurks and prowls to extract more fruits of our labor
Don’t ask what it’s for
Deadline draws near, pay up
Cheers
spec
No smoke, fire, flood, earthquake, or SEC filings
But those high quality GOM miocene reservoirs are still treasure waiting to be discovered
If GSPE gets a relaunch, high fives all around
Distress sale, taken private , bankruptcy, SEC halt, all bad possibilities …..
I still think the data and objective analysis of the market support a somewhat bullish view for the higher risk/reward corner of my battlefield
WTI holding upper $70’s and GSPE slumbers
Cheers
spec
Although I find it disconcerting to be posting about the stock of a company (Gulfslope Energy) that has missed the last two SEC filings (the annual 10-K and the first quarter 10-Q) due to “working capital issues”, I want to say that I am in agreement with much of the sentiment expressed in your post 7762.
That said, perhaps there still exists potential for the Tau. So with a focus on the timeline in mind, please consider the following points….
There are NO fees associated with letting a BOEM lease go and relinquishing it. And at this time I can find no evidence indicating that the company or it’s partner ever intended to relinquish the Tau lease. The BOEM lease, G36121 still remains “active”. And for your convenience that detail is made available on the following March 5, 2024 BOEM GOM Lease Data Report, page 2694:
https://www.data.bsee.gov/Leasing/Files/1221.pdf
And although company cash resources were limited, it appears the decision made on how to best allocate the final effect of these resources was to make the Tau lease annual rental payment, even though this action would facilitate the financial reports becoming delinquent. Undoubtably a tough call.
The company may still fail, but I believe this to be a clear sign that Gulfslope management has no intention of abandoning the pursuit of the Tau 2.
It also appears there is ongoing communications between the Tau’s 75% working interest partner, Delek GOM Investments and the BOEM. They still reflect the Qualification Updates “received” but not yet “completed”. Once the BOEM has completed those updates, Delek should be removed from the weekly BOEM Chief Notes.
https://www.boem.gov/sites/default/files/documents/oil-gas-energy/Industy%20Report%2003042024.pdf
Certainly there is much ‘smoke’ being seen by all, but as already mentioned, the source of the fire remains unknown.
Therefore, despite the lack of clarity in our circumstances, I am in agreement with your assessment that there is no upside to be had from selling our shares at this point. This is a helpful perspective on your part that guides the decision regarding what steps to take next.
So with an appreciation for the great value of these recoverable resources if they are ever proven, and considering the resulting effects to the stock price in such a scenario, I too will hold my shares for as long as possible.
But there are many IFs to overcome. If the company can hold on until after the next general election, and if the hostility of the current administration is rejected by voters in a fair election, and if the new administration wishes to support GOM exploration (which I believe they will), and if a new partner is found, and if the Tau 2 is successful, then all will be well with GSPE shareholders.
But those unwilling to make this investment in time and money or to take on this risk will be disappointed.
So it is really not a complicated decision despite the smoke. Only those willing to stay long in the face of potential disappointment can win big. And even then, only if a successful Tau 2 well is drilled.
Those with a short perspective can perhaps chip off a few bucks here and there, but the big payday will evade them. As bottom feeders deserve.
I see it as High hopes and Low expectations.
In the meantime, although I will miss the frequent interactions of posting here, and it has been my distinct pleasure to exchange comments and ideas with you all, I will mostly be focused on other endeavors in the future.
But I do plan to check back from time to time to read recent comments and maintain my duties as moderator. And perhaps a new post here and there as well, provided I have a comment pertaining to any new developments.
So, until then, Good Luck to All and Thank You.
Calm waters, light winds, and good fishing.
Mrs. Smith
I’ve seen smoke here many times but I never actually see any fire. I would like to be optimistic, but I’ve seen this movie before.
Nice little 33% day today! Anyone know what the catalyst may have been?
… and V-ger pops her head up and sez - “hmmm, 1M on the tape and 2M on the bid at 20% higher than the Friday closing price”
We get some volume and it’ll start to be meaningful
Out of the gate, it’s a fresh look for the week
Cheers
spec
WTI ticks up to the $80 mark as more alleged attacks on subsea data cables are reported in the Red Sea
The economics of asymmetric warfare on low hanging fruit (soft targets such as shipping and infrastructure) weigh heavily on Western military costs
No comfort for the high value targets that get lit up by a laser
GSPE is the dry desert wildflower seed waiting for a sprinkling of rain
“Buckle up an keep yer powder dry, global turbulence expected ahead”
spec
If I remember right. Tau was stopped because of a controlled blow out. By the time they got the blow out fixed the lease on the rig was about to expire. GulfSlope did plan to go back and drill the same hole and had a rig rented. The rig never left port due to covid.
I’m basically in the exact same spot as you @Bowsaw and feel the same. Good luck to you!
Letts hope I'm holding out. $$ guess I am still ab believer; Time will tell
My stake in GSPE is a couple of million shares. Seven years ago that stake was a considerable invesmtent of mine. Now it is quite small.
Will I ever sell?
Hell, the stock has lost 97% of my original purchase value, so there is no money to be had by selling.
I wonder why the drilling on Tau quit just a few meters from their target, I wonder why the insurance money is not spent to return to the site and drill, and I wonder why their offices remain open.
Lots of questions, and yet remain a wee bit hopeful with a young man's imagination.
But I won't sell. I may even buy.
I do appreciate y'all, you Tbags, and the NordOilguy, and Spec, especially "Mrs." Smith, and of course, for her upbeat music, Byurwherevergirl.
One of my imaginations is that when Tau and Canoe spill forth, we will all meet in a venue on Memorial near the West Loop.
WTI hugs onto the upper $70’s like a comfort zone
Anti-globalist and anti leftist parties are winning elections abroad as social normality succumbs to the results of failed social engineering
GulfSlope sits in the corner, ready to groove
But no music comes from the regulatory bureaucracy
And no dance partner showing any happy feet …. yet
I’m doing my part to keep fossil fuel demand strong and I will humbly admit that my gallons of fuel/fish ratio could use some improvement
Time and tide….
Cheers
spec
I think as a group we are a pretty good-sized group, but I don’t believe we would be a majority holder.
I wonder how much of the company the members of this board own? diamond hands here!!!! LOL
No one is selling that’s a little bit of a surprise.
Another NT 10-Q filed
No 10-Q due to no $$
Heavier sigh …..
spec
Dead quiet on the board and the tape
Crickets ….
Can’t remember many days on any stocks that had <$1 in dollar volume unless it was zero trades
Brandon has one foot out the door and the other one on a banana peel, no signs of improvement in any geopolitical matters
WTI has crept back up to high $70’s on a day of broad declines in the markets
Heavy sigh ….
spec
I’m still keeping tabs on everything but my trading in general has taken a back seat to several other projects and pursuits
Another side factor is that for the past several months I’ve rarely spent any significant amount of time in my office, my time on a computer other than my phone has been zero this week except one earnings conference call that I was on
When the tide finally turns on this current insanity regarding domestic energy policy and/or GulfSlope awakens from its slumber, I will almost certainly be in “4-alarm fire mode”
I still think there’s a glowing ember there and the DNA of the organization is good, always has been a great mix of capabilities and serious business minds
In comparison, most microcaps are contaminated with dreamers, snake oil salesmen, and well intentioned, but ill-prepared newbies
Nothing in life is guaranteed, especially in volatile times and distorted markets
But I’ll accept the risk with GulfSlope
Hero or Zero
This board has some really capable and interesting participants
Unfortunately, for now, there’s not much besides the ongoing battle for and against domestic energy to comment on
Eventually that will change
Hopefully soon we’ll see a restart and definitive direction for GulfSlope
Fortunately, I have some speckled trout and red drum in my crosshairs to keep me amused
Weather permitting, of course
Cheers
spec
Spec why so quite no thoughts?
Ha! This cracked me up. Well played
I think I was to surprised a real person answered the phone and a verry chatty person as well. The number is on the website if you want to try it.
Still signs of operations…
Stock up 28.5% today…
Some good laughs in our message board…
As good of a day as I could expect here on a casual Monday in February.
You should have told her it was an emergency. We are all dying here.
Something else I should have thought of. I did call their number last night fully expecting to get a recording. To my surprise a real person answered. it was an answering service. Th voice on the line identified the line as Golfslope then asked if this was an emergency. The whole call surprised me. When I told her it wasn't an emergency, she provided me with an email address at Gulfslope. I did email the address no reply yet.
Now we are talking! LOL
Clerk at jail: “Sorry sir we don’t accept your pennies to bail out your internet friend.”
Me: “no I said penny stocks”
Maybe someone can borrow a uniform from J-Bar-M Barbecue and deliver an order
Take a couple extra plates to “tip” the building’s doorman, receptionist, security….
A gopro body cam, a good line of BS, and a smile
“Yeah, I got a delivery for suite xxx , supposed to be a surprise from Carol …. uhhh, can’t read the last name …..”
I got the tab if someone wants to try
spec
LOL mine as well donate them to a good cause at this point!
Jezz more than likely the entire board would have to donate if we are going to use GSPE shares
Hahahahha just make sure the courts accept GSPE stock as payment.
Do you intend to send bail money if I go back?
LOL just pull up your phone and say “I am here to represent this thread…” would have been worth the story. There is always next time!
Why didn't I think of that ☹️
Did you inform security that you were there on behalf of the investorhub GSPE message board? That should have done the trick lol
No, I couldn't get into the building without a badge. That wasn't a big surprise. I've worked in several buildings that required a badge to enter Although I tried. I started to get some attention from security. I even tried to go through the parking garage. So, I can report nothing of interest. It was just kind of my science project while I was in Houston.
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