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energy markets are like a hornet’s nest that just got knocked out of a tree
More attacks on oil infrastructure, another tanker hit in the Middle East and an oil terminal deep in Russian territory
Yet, crude falls with headlines of softening demand
Global oil inventories extremely low
Too early to call the effect of the mid-terms on exploration permits and upstream financial hurdles
Ear to the ground
spec
Thank you, I try to make sense of the mayhem and energy markets are like a hornet’s nest that just got knocked out of a tree
Big forces pushing and pulling on both supply and demand side
I think we might look back at this fall and remember it as the eye of the storm
I think the probability of crude holding a higher range than current ($85-$95) is pretty high and I just can’t imagine an alignment of stars that would deliver WTI in the $70’s
I hope some damage control from congress can push hard for clearing the way for upstream investment
GLTA
spec
Once again I agree with your posts. I find them accurate and to the point.
By the way, I noticed that the U.S. gasoline, distillate, and propane stocks were down this week.
However, there was a build in commercial crude inventory of 3.9 million barrels. Probably due to the release of 3.6 million more barrels from the SPR.
For 1Q23 the Brent and WTI futures contracts are in the mid $90s and upper $80s, respectively.
So, very similar to the current contracts.
The comparison of global consumption vs global production was 100.98 mb/d and 100.67 mb/d, respectively.
So expect continued tightness in global supplies.
In conclusion, all this agrees with the EIA’s most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook where it states that despite increasing concerns around weakening global economic conditions, the global oil consumption will outpace global oil production in 2023. This will contribute to increasing global oil prices in 2H23.
We need to drill Tau2.
All those in favor, say “aye”.
Mrs. Smith
The supporters of the oil and gas industry may wonder if Ds realize that they are actually playing into our hands with their misplaced faith in renewables. It is only a matter of time.
Once the dust clears from the collapse of their ‘fossil fuel free’ dream, consumers will know the results of their folly. And what it has cost them. And how much more it will cost them in the future to get it all straightened out. And there will be no joy in it for Ds.
The only unknown is how long will it be before the epiphany is upon us.
A really impressive and thought provoking article.
Link: https://www.heartland.org/news-opinion/news/re-elected-governor-newsoms-energy-literacy-will-be-challenged-over-the-next-4-years
Mrs. Smith
Due to a miscommunication I was wrong about the LSU Gulf Coast Energy Outlook for 2023 being released on Friday.
Actually this report is not going to be available until the 16th.
Since I will be committed to other activities this week, I may not be able to get it posted in a timely manner.
Therefore, I am providing links for any interested parties.
Webinar:
https://www.lsu.edu/ces/conferences/gceo2023/index.php
Outlook:
https://www.lsu.edu/ces/research/whitepapers.php
Mrs. Smith
Crude markets are still swinging to and fro between China/covid lockdowns/demand destruction and EU/Russian crude caps
Uncertainty in the caps is already weighing on the crude supply logistics so the talking heads are pronouncing a “crude grinds higher” phase
Time will tell
You might have noticed the cyclical headlines, always a surprise every 2 weeks or so. Surprise draw on stockpiles! Crude higher
2 weeks later, Surprise build in stockpiles, crude falls
Many variations of the same “push-pull” rowing along sideways and scalping the fear spread
Longer trend is awareness of what has caused the hardships in energy, more and more pressure to unshackle domestic oil and gas
That’s the message that needs to be acted on to unleash GulfSlope’s potential
I’m a treasure hunter and the treasure here is real
Drill Tau2
spec
The author of this article explains in more detail what I tried to point out in my post.
I thought he did a very good job of explaining why a larger majority would not have made any difference.
And he makes the point that just having the majority in the House is definitely going to make a meaningful difference.
Also, later today, after it is released, I plan to post the ‘2023 Gulf Coast Energy Outlook’ from LSU, which contains forecasts on production, pricing, and other associated activities in the OCS region of the GOM.
https://townhall.com/columnists/larryoconnor/2022/11/10/big-majority-or-slim-majority-the-size-of-the-gavel-is-the-same-n2615810
Mrs. Smith
It is unclear to me just what is meant by “meaningful difference”.
Yes, certainly it is too early to know, but a majority in the Senate does not appear to be hopeless. And if Rs get the majority in the Senate, that will mean the VP gets to stay in her office full-time.
For now, predictions are that Rs will likely win enough House seats to shut down most of this Administration’s next two years. To me, that is very meaningful.
If this is the outcome, Rs will get chairmanships over important committees.
Rs will control the money.
Rs will control the budget.
Rs will greatly influence the legislative agenda (or lack thereof).
Rs will decide future energy policy, which should impact the oil and gas industry in a positive way.
We will just need to keep on moving ahead, never losing sight of the goal, while working with what we have. Perhaps taking smaller strides than we hoped. But still making incremental changes as we move towards the Big Finale in two more years.
An analogy is that it is similar to when we are following behind a school bus and driving through a school zone. We will surely still arrive at our destination. But at 20 MPH, and after several stops and waits. Perseverance and Persistence always Prevails.
A lighthearted question. If “red Ripple” is for Winos, does that mean white Ripple is for RINOs?
Mrs. Smith
I was hoping for more but a flipped house is a huge move in the right direction (pun intended) for domestic oil and gas
Eventually……., the tide will roll in again
Still have a hard winter ahead for many
I will be assisting those who are in need in my community, based on hardship and their ability to cope with the financial stresses
Still work to be done in education
Basic economics 101
spec
Huge bid / ask this morning .0047 / .006
I’m no election expert but it seems the red wave was more like a red ripple? Republicans gained “some” ground but not enough to make a meaningful difference? Senate may be deadlocked heading into a December runoff election?
Agree with you both - thanks for contributions as always
That’s pretty good for a fuzzy low-energy crystal ball because it all looks 100% correct to me
“Regulatory Outlook” shift, a lifting force for expanded investment in exploration and GSPE’s odds of success
That’s one of the levers we can pull tomorrow
Pull the lever, flush the swamp, Drill Tau2
Cheers
spec
We will always have the opportunity for the share price to move upwards, but meaningful appreciation will most likely require news of a partner or drilling contract in my opinion.
Things I see on the horizon that increase the potential for this happening are a noteworthy change in the regulatory outlook and greater support for exploration and drilling. As you surmised, this is most likely the outcome if the Rs take control in this election.
Recall that 2015-2019 was the most recent time the Rs controlled both chambers of Congress. And that resulted in an expansion of drilling activity in the GOM. If the Rs gain control after this election, it is conceivable that they can repeat that performance at a critical time.
By the way, the BOEM is forecasting oil production for the OCS region of the GOM in 2022-2024 to reflect strong growth similar to what occurred in 2013-2019. This is the type of news that investors may find to be worthy of risk.
Maybe those wishing to buy back into the stock at a lower cost basis will want to start accumulating soon. That is another reason the share price might move higher. But as previously stated, notable moves in the share price will probably only occur after the announcing of some type of partnership or drilling contract. Again, in my opinion.
My crystal ball is fuzzy due to running low on energy.
Signing off.
Mrs. Smith
If there are gains made by republicans in congress tomorrow, do we think we would see a share price increase or is the only thing that will impact GSPE be company specific news?
Geared up for a great week
I can feel it in my bones
……
or, it’s gonna rain
Got my bet on the former
Gotta drill our way out of this economic pitfall that’s ahead (we’re at the edge now for sure)
Drill Tau2
spec
Unless I am mistaken from my understanding of remarks from John Kerry (the climate advisor), the Administration has a plan to address some infrastructure needs for the Green New Deal (or the inappropriately named Inflation Reduction Act).
Unfortunately, portions of this spending is intended for upgrades in other countries. I am totally against taxpayers footing the bill for this.
Think of the inflation all that printing of money and borrowing will bring. How high will the interest rates go up? We need to rename this The Inflation Increasing Act.
But wait! It gets worse. There is no ceiling for how much money we will spend on these world-wide green projects. This is an open-ended boondoggle. Can you believe this load of ‘malarkey’?
I am curious about whose pockets are being lined? A classic case of ‘follow the money’. Kerry says there is no limit on how much money can be spent, so I choose the amount of $0.00 as the goal.
This must stop. Government spending must be reduced, not increased. How can we afford to pay for this without going bankrupt ourselves?
See link: https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/john-kerry-is-looking-for-money-to-help-save-the-climate
Queasy again.
Mrs. Smith
I was at a wedding last night, spoke to someone who rented a car last week and the only thing they had was a Tesla. Her destination was 2.5 hours from the airport and they didn’t give her the car with a full charge. She had to go way off course to charge it up in order to make it to her destination since the area she was heading was mostly farm country. Had to stop on way back to charge it too. Said it was so stressful since these alerts kept going off saying she would not make it to her destination without stopping to charge and another alert came on every time she went over 65 mph. Took forever to charge too, she was late to her meeting and It literally ruined her entire trip. Our infrastructure is just not set up for this drain on our power grid yet, and won’t be for some time. The fact politicians are taking such a hard stance on drilling / gas / oil is truly unbelievable.
Curious about the GOM oil and gas forecast?
Buffoon-den is trying to sell you a full load of his ‘malarkey’. Even the DOI and the BOEM do not believe in the lunatic rhetoric that says we will be ending fossil fuels. At least we will not do it willingly, which is the reason change is coming. I do “hope” for “change”.
These charts plainly spell it out and reinforce what many on this board have been saying all along…. Oil and gas is going to be around for the long haul.
Notice that the continuing OCS GOM oil production is expected to experience multiple record years of growth through 2031.
And look for those GOM natural gas numbers to significantly increase once a new administration begins making the calls. We need it.
That may take some of the ‘wind’ out of their turbines, and ‘rain’ on the solar collectors. After all, we should make an effort to have electricity be a better value for consumers. Even for EV drivers.
Also, note that the GOM forecast clearly indicates that ‘undiscovered resources’ are a critical part of our future. And the Tau lease is considered to be an ‘unrisked recoverable resource’ that fits comfortably into that category.
https://www.boem.gov/sites/default/files/documents/regions/gulf-mexico-ocs-region/US%20OCS%20GOMR%20Oil%20and%20Gas%20Production%20Forecast%202022-2031.pdf
And this is from the ‘we support 100% renewables’ crowd. Think what the next forecast might look like once the ‘we want energy independence’ party begins running the show.
So a commitment to much more exploration and drilling is to be expected. Bodes well for Gulfslope Energy and Tau 2.
Cheap Renewables? Blah-blah-blah-blah. No, Buffoon-den.
Two days, folks.
Meet you on the other side.
Woooo-Woooooo!
Mrs. Smith
To your point. No coincidences. Appears there is at least one plan in place.
https://pjmedia.com/columns/david-solway-2/2022/11/04/the-great-reset-a-perfect-storm-n1642854
Mrs. Smith
not to mention that on average every Tesla consumes around 3 households worth of energy per day. The infrastructure is not anywhere near capable of sustaining a rapid conversion to Tesla, and the green energy the consumers are so happy with have only had their dirty carbon footprints displaced to some other poor/ first nation country.
Hydrogen is a much better alternative, if there is one.
Another push upward in crude, not so much in Nat Gas
WTI solidly into the low $90’s ($92.50)
Nobody wants to be short on oil or producers, the supply infrastructure is far too vulnerable
Geopolitics in absolute turmoil every direction you turn
We’re at 6
The crazy dial goes to 11
Sunny days ahead but work to be done to get there
Hanging on for a tide shift and Tau2
I have a powerball ticket too though
spec
Another Green Dream prepares to bite the dust.
None of these ‘renewable energy’ boondoggles can compete in the marketplace against natural gas without overwhelming taxpayer support (known as government subsidies).
Why should taxpayers ensure that the investors do not lose money when they invest in these inefficient, over-priced schemes designed to fill their pockets while killing fossil fuels?
What about our hard-earned money? How do the consumers feel about having those electricity rates go up by 50%, or even more (see Germany or California).
Since these schemes all seem to share this in common, I surmise that the point is for liberal fat-cats to get over-sized returns on their investments once these projects are completed.
Just another wealth redistribution scheme. These guys should be running used-car lots with in-house financing. But wait! That will not work. No gas cars, remember.
And Greta is back. Woe is me. She has not matured at all. Full commie now. At least she does not have her own private jet (yet).
Yes. Plug that book. Cannot wait to get my copy. Maybe it will explain why I should pay attention to a teenaged activist without a proven track record of achievement to vouch for those wonky opinions.
Spare me and drill Tau 2.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/31/massachusetts-wind-power-project-no-longer-viable-developer.html
https://unherd.com/thepost/greta-thunberg-throws-her-lot-in-with-the-anti-capitalist-left/
Mrs. Smith
In case you missed it, the sort of notorious el Mucho Lurko, was saying GSPE was ‘Krap’ (unquote).
Everyone, of course, is entitled to an opinion.
And for the record, the reasons that I ‘waste posts’ (unquote) about Gulfslope is that I believe in the management team, their vision, the seismic data, and that they will drill the well.
Also, I find the exchange of ideas with other posters to be intellectually stimulating (mostly).
Since I do not trade my shares, I am content to wait for the company to work through all the turmoil before drilling the well.
I am not alone either. The Company’s Management Proposals were recently approved by a majority of the shareholders.
Once again, patience and perseverance prevails.
Mrs. Smith
Well, I guess I will continue to lurk and try to figure out how a smart person as yourself would waste time on this so called company, but each to their own.
I truly hope, and I mean this sincerely, that this does turn into something worthwhile and you make a killing, but until then, all the best and thanks for being cordial
With all due respect back to you, all I am trying to do is give my opinion and read responses from other interested posters.
I do not recall at anytime ever advising anyone to do anything with it one way or the other.
My posts are free, and worth all they cost. Like anyone else, you are free to use them however you wish.
I wonder how one can pump this stock? The share price is low and the volume of sales is too. There is no news at this time, and the value of an entire day’s trading is about $500. I have said it before, I am NOT a trader, so I need YOU to explain it to me.
I do kind of wish I had a major ownership stake in the company. But alas, I am but a minor shareholder.
Mrs. Smith
Mrs Smith
With all due respect, you seem like a sharp cookie, but you are talking about a Krap company like GSPE, so what's the skinny? Why are you wasting post after post of you intellect on this garbage?
Are you an owner trying to pump this to sell shares?
Honestly, whats up?
To expand on what spec said, he is absolutely,100% correct.
There is the ‘Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act’ that can be utilized to stop spending on much (all?) of the new Inflation Reduction Act and it’s green subsidies. Probably applies to other spending plans too. All the Rs need to do is have the courage to enact it.
If we wish to revive drilling and kill inflation, the three main House Committees that I would like to see the Rs get Chairmanship for is the Energy and Commerce Committee, the Financial Services Committee, and the Budget Committee.
The ‘Energy and Commerce Committee’ has jurisdiction over the National Energy Policy, Fossil Energy, Renewable Energy, Nuclear Energy, Synthetic and Alternative Fuels, the DOE, the FERC, the EPA, and the EIA.
The ‘Financial Services Committee’ has jurisdiction over Securities and Exchanges (and ESG policy). Banks and banking, including deposit insurance and Federal monetary policy. Money and credit, currency, gold and silver, and valuation of the dollar.
The primary responsibility of the ‘Budget Committee’ is the drafting and preparation of the Budget Resolution. This resolution sets the levels of revenue and spending that is expected to occur in a given fiscal year.
It is imperative that we have control of these committees if we wish to change these regulations.
Mrs. Smith
The API’s “10 in 2022” policies would spur nearly $200 billion in direct investment and generate over 225 thousand jobs by 2035.
See link for final energy report, Released November 1, 2022:
https://www.api.org/-/media/Files/misc/20221031-Rystad-Energy-APIs-10-in-2022-Policy-Plan
Mrs. Smith
Seems to be a constant tug of war for power in our senate that goes back and forth. It’s about time things swing back in the favor of oil and gas for a bit. It’s been completely on the other side of the pendulum for a while now
A red wave will activate a bunch of tools and leverage points
Can’t unring a bell but a lot of the $7T government spending (from just the last 20 months) can get “reviewed” (rescinded)
The Speaker’s gavel is critical but I am hoping for a Senate GOP majority
If that happens, the restrictions on domestic energy are within striking distance
Upstream Oil & Gas can’t turn on a dime but the “investability” equation changes pretty quickly
spec
OK so let’s just say there is a red wave on Election Day next week, seems like that would pave the way for lessened drilling regulations down the road, right? Or am I naive to think it would help?
I agree, it’s the predictable result of far too many policies and actions directed at Marxist/socialist goals and self interest instead of targeting the freedoms and prosperity of the electorate
The upside is that although the damage will take time (and great expense) to repair, it can be fixed
Politicians can’t get smarter overnight
But you can take the gavel from the ignorant ones and put it in smarter hands in a very short timeframe
GOM rebound virtually assured
And as long as GSPE exists, the opportunity is ripe for making a monumental move
spec
It’s all intentional. I don’t believe in coincidences.
‘Rapid increases in diesel prices reflect low inventories going into winter demand season’
Not Good. Not at all. I do not normally get queasy so easily, but I am beginning to feel it.
The ‘Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil’ as of October 28th increased by a whopping .004% (427,000 barrels). Obviously, no one in this Administration saw it coming.
Makes me wonder if it is just the incompetence of not realizing the unintended consequences, or else it was not unintended. It must be one or the other.
Yes. Definitely queasy.
THIS WEEK IN PETROLEUM by the EIA, Released November 2, 2022
Graphs A:https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/
Graphs B: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDISTUS1&f=W
In October 2022, the New York Harbor spot price for ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) averaged $4.36 per gallon (gal), the highest monthly average price since May 2022 and the second-highest monthly average price on record (Figure 1). The diesel crack spread—the difference between the price of crude oil and an equivalent volume of diesel—marked a historic high at $2.14/gal in October, even higher than during the summer. By comparison, this high was $1.61/gal, or over four times, more than the diesel crack spread had been in October 2021. The increases in distillate prices, both in the United States and globally, have been the result of multiple factors:
* Low inventories of distillate fuel oil (which is primarily consumed as diesel), both in the United States and globally
* Increasing demand for distillate, partially related to seasonal drivers such as agricultural demand and home heating demand in the Northeast
* Less production of distillate related to seasonal refinery maintenance, as well as lower refinery utilization in Europe following labor strikes
* Higher costs of transporting distillate ahead of the EU’s February ban on petroleum product imports from Russia
U.S. inventories of distillate fuel oil have been below the five-year (2017–2021) low since the start of 2022 (Figure 2). Since April, total U.S. distillate inventories have been below the five-year low and more than 20% below the five-year average. The Northeast—the combined New England (PADD 1A) and the mid-Atlantic (PADD 1B) regions—has been more than 40% below the five-year low since the end of July. The low inventories have primarily been the result of less global refining capacity since 2020, as well as high demand in early 2022 and global trade disruptions later in the year linked to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Consumption through the summer in 2022 has remained below pre-pandemic levels, but has increased relative to 2020. Even when consumption has not been at above-average levels, the higher relative consumption combined with lower refinery production of distillate has contributed to the lower inventories. High crude oil prices contribute directly to higher prices for petroleum products such as distillate fuel oil, while constraints on refinery capacity further contribute to high prices by increasing the crack spread associated with the value of refining.
Prices at the New York Harbor pricing benchmark are higher relative to other U.S. benchmarks at Chicago, the Gulf Coast, or Los Angeles (Figure 3). The ULSD spot price at New York Harbor averaged 56 cents/gal higher than the Gulf Coast benchmark in October, compared with 17 cents/gal higher from January through September 2022. The reason for the increase at New York Harbor in October is a combination of normal seasonal increases in demand, abnormally low inventories, and limited distillate supplies available for import. As we discussed in our Winter Fuels Outlook, U.S. distillate demand is seasonal, in part because of its use in home heating mostly in the Northeast. The beginning of the winter demand cycle for home heating oil is likely the primary catalyst for rising prices because rising seasonal demand is drawing on already substantially strained regional inventories.
In addition to market conditions in the United States, a strike by refinery workers in France took several of that country’s refineries offline at the end of September through most of October. Reuters estimated the total refinery capacity that was taken offline by the strikes at 740,000 barrels per day in early October (b/d). Lower French refinery utilization is likely to further strain already low European distillate inventories, and the effects could ripple through the global market. In Europe, tight distillate supplies present additional complications compared with the United States because distillate is more widely used as the primary transport fuel in light-duty vehicles. Reduced natural gas imports into Europe from Russia may also be increasing demand for distillate as a potential alternative fuel for power generation, industry, or home heating oil this winter. As in the United States, distillate inventories at the Amsterdam Rotterdam Antwerp (ARA) storage hub have been well below their five-year average since the start of 2022 and were more than 1.0 million barrels below the five-year average through most of the summer
Although seasonal factors such as home heating are important in determining changes in U.S. distillate demand over the course of the year, distillate fuel oil is primarily consumed in the on-road transportation sector, which includes medium- and heavy-duty trucking. Large volumes of distillate are also consumed in the commercial, industrial, and rail sectors. As a result, distillate fuel demand is strongly tied to economic conditions and expectations. Concerns about rising interest rates and increasing inflation were also likely contributing to some relative weakness in distillate demand in September. The most recent increase in distillate prices in October follows a period of lower distillate demand (measured as product supplied) in September, which had been reducing some pressure on distillate prices (Figure 5). The low demand in September may have been partially a result of caution by rail operators who may have been reluctant to restock their diesel supplies because of the threat of a rail strike at that time. Renewed concerns about a rail strike in November may similarly contribute to some weakness in distillate demand from the rail sector.
Another uncertain factor relating to global distillate supplies in the near term is the potential for increasing refinery production of distillate fuel oil in China. China may begin exporting more distillate fuel oil in response to higher export quotas from the Chinese government, although whether exports from China actually rise to fill these quotas remains uncertain. In addition, trade press reports the first sales of distillate and other petroleum products from the newly started Al-Zour refinery in Kuwait, which could become a new source of distillate in the coming months.
The potential for reducing market pressure on inventories through new production is constrained by global capacity to transport distillate. A large volume of distillate fuel oil imports from Russia previously flowed into Europe by pipeline. But as buyers in Europe turn elsewhere to procure distillate, global demand for clean product tanker shipping has been increasing. (Clean product tankers are tanker ships that carry refined products such as gasoline, distillate, or jet fuel, as opposed to dirty product tankers that carry crude oil or residual fuel oil.) Distillate volumes needed to replace pipeline volumes will most likely need to travel by tanker, and tanker routes are also likely to become longer as European buyers increase purchases from the Middle East and United States. Even if inventories of distillate fuel oil on the U.S. Gulf Coast or Asia were to increase, limitations on available shipping capacity are likely to continue contributing to price premiums in the Northeast or European distillate markets because of higher tanker shipping rates.
Mrs. Smith
Weekly Petroleum Status Report, October 28, 2022.
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/wpsrall.pdf
HIGHLIGHTS
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 436.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels from last week and are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased, but blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels last week and are about 19% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/ propylene inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels from last week and are 4% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 0.7 million barrels last week.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is currently at 399.8 million barrels. A year ago it was 612.5 million barrels. That is a reduction of 212.7 million barrels in just one year. More depletion is scheduled from the SPR this year. (This puts all of us in a precarious position. Maybe we can squeak by if nothing significant occurs. Who knows.)
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.8 million barrels per day during the week ending October 28, 2022 which was 406,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 90.6% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.5 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.1 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day last week, increased by 25 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.1 million barrels per day, 0.5% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 286,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 121,000 barrels per day.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.3 million barrels a day, down by 0.5% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.6 million barrels a day, down by 8.2% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.1 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 5.1% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 0.7% compared with the same four-week period last year.
The West Texas Intermediate crude oil price was $87.85 per barrel on October 28, 2022, $2.38 above last week’s price and $4.35 more than a year ago. The spot price for conventional gasoline in the New York Harbor was $3.152 per gallon, $0.203 more than last week’s price but $0.615 above a year ago. The spot price for No. 2 heating oil in the New York Harbor was $4.540 per gallon, $0.396 above last week’s price and $2.198 over a year ago.
The national average retail regular gasoline price decreased to $3.742 per gallon on October 31, 2022, $0.027 below last week’s price but $0.352 over a year ago. The national average retail diesel fuel price decreased to $5.317 per gallon, $0.024 per gallon lower than last week’s price but $1.590 higher than a year ago.
Mrs. Smith
D-D-D-D, D-D-D-D….
Oh, not Beethoven
Stands for a deeper dive into the diesel debacle.
https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-its-worth-a-government-shutdown-to-fight-the-climate-energy-shutdown
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/11/youd_better_be_prepared_for_the_perfect_transportation_storm.html
Mrs. Smith
What a difference a generation makes. I did not include this in my prior post because I cannot document the authenticity of what I was told. But here goes anyway for what it is worth.
Everyone knows that today oil companies are vilified by some in the political realm. But that was not true during WWII.
At that time, one of the most important commodities was fuel. Gasoline for vehicles. Cars, trucks, and tanks. Aviation fuel. The war could not be fought and won without it.
So important was it that, in spite of a wartime draft for able-bodied men, oil-field workers were exempted.
Why? Because they were deemed to be more valuable creating oil here than fighting in the Armed Forces. I was told many workers did quit their jobs and joined the services. But it was optional.
I cannot say if this is true and accurate, but if it is, it shows a remarkable change in the attitudes of then and now.
Just like I personally know men that served in Vietnam that tell of returning home to West Coast airports, and being met by people denigrating them with profanity and spitting on them.
Shameful. That will mostly not happen today. I hope.
Veterans Day is approaching.
Fly the flag with pride.
Mrs. Smith
I get the satire.
What I found to be disappointing were Joe’s comments about a Windfall Profits Tax and on Exxon. Here are my thoughts on those topics.
For over 100 years Exxon has benefited this country at a level the Ds never have and never could. Exxon created enormous wealth for the shareholders, the country, and the global community.
They are only after Exxon because of their political contributions. When the price of oil dropped at the outset of Covid and Exxon needed to borrow billions of dollars to pay dividends to the shareholders, where were Ds? In fact, where were any politicians?
In spite of all the turmoil and panic, Exxon did not cut the dividend. It paid it on time. Exxon supported those shareholders just like the shareholders had supported Exxon. Also, unlike some, Exxon kept supporting their customers, their employees, USA energy needs, and national security.
When Exxon’s earnings fell 22 billion dollars in 2020, where were the Ds? Now that the pendulum has swung back the other way, the Ds want to try to use these high earnings for political gain. No equilibrium? No fair play?
If we wish to regulate profits of oil companies perhaps we should do the same with the earnings of tech companies, Silicone Valley companies, celebrities, entertainers, and attorneys.
Let us try it out. Make it retroactive. Put a new spin on socialism. Make it from the top down. Flat tax it. No deductions. No write-offs. No endowments or trusts.
Shame on them. If there are any Windfall Profits, it is due to the inept and incompetent policies of this administration. And, just another example of the character of today’s modern Ds.
Elites? Smartest people in the room? Surely you jest. Laughing Loudly, Longly, and Bigly.
Mrs. Smith
GulfSlope narrowly avoids windfall profit tax penalty
Someone hadda say it
spec
“Maybe it’s just me … But I hesitate every time I see the WOO.”
It may very well be just YOO.
And yes, it is “real and objective”. OPEC is one of the major factors that influence global oil prices. Their members supply about 40% of the world’s crude oil, and OPEC’s oil exports represent about 60% of total petroleum traded internationally. So the World Oil Outlook (WOO) will clearly carry weight within the oil and gas industry.
My WOO WOO from the ‘Oil Outlook’ is that we are going to be using just as much, or more, oil in 2045 as we are today. So, oil companies are not likely to be going out of business any time soon.
Drill Tau 2.
WOO, WOO. I think I can. I think I can. I think I can. WOO, WOO.
Mrs. Smith
Maybe it’s just me …
But I hesitate every time I see the WOO
Like - are we supposed to take this organization seriously when they publish a report called a “WOO”?
A vision in my head of little people pulling on imaginary horn pullropes and hollering “Wooo wooooo”
But of course it is real, and objective
Inexpensive energy is crucial to the global economy and fossil fuels must play a big role, otherwise everyone will suffer
Eye on the waves building
Ready
spec
While hunkering down, I was wondering what besides gasoline, groceries, and virtually most other goods and services require diesel for delivery?
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDISTUS1&f=W
When we run out of diesel (25 days) how will we go to work? No gasoline delivered to stations. No trucks, trains or buses running. Will we even have jobs to go to?
How will grocery stores restock?
Ships? Ambulances? Fire Trucks? Drilling Rigs? What else am I missing?
Post with you later. Running to the store to stock up on food and fill my tanks and gas cans.
Way to go Joe.
Mrs. Smith
OPEC launches 2022 edition of World Oil Outlook, October 31, 2022
KEY MESSAGE VIDEO - WORLD OIL OUTLOOK: https://players.brightcove.net/pages/v1/index.html?accountId=34306109001&playerId=HkZYMNjxl&videoId=6314505575112&autoplay=true
INTERACTIVE - 2022 WORLD OIL OUTLOOK 2045: https://woo.opec.org
The 2022 OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO) was today launched at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC) 2022 in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). First published in 2007, the WOO offers a detailed review and assessment of the medium- and long-term prospects for the global oil and energy industries to 2045.
Highlights from this year’s WOO include:
1. The world economy is expected to more than double in size, and the global population rise by 1.6 billion between now and 2045.
2. Global primary energy demand is forecast to continue growing in the medium - and long-term, increasing by a significant 23% in the period to 2045.
3. The world needs to annually add on average 2.7 million barrels of oil equivalent a day to 2045.
4. All forms of energy will be needed to address future energy needs.
5. Energy poverty remains an issue throughout the forecast period, with a wide gap remaining between developed and developing countries.
6. Oil is expected to retain the largest share in the energy mix throughout the outlook period, accounting for almost a 29% share in 2045.
7. Other Renewables – combining mainly solar, wind and geothermal energy – expand by 7.1% p.a. on average, significantly faster than any other source of energy.
8. All major fuel types witness growth, with the exception of coal.
9. Globally, oil demand is projected to increase from almost 97 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2021 to around 110 mb/d in 2045.
10. Non-OECD countries drive oil demand growth, expanding by close to 24 mb/d over the forecast period, whereas the OECD declines by over 10 mb/d between 2021 and 2045.
11. India is set to be the largest contributor to incremental demand, adding around 6.3 mb/d to 2045.
12. Oil demand in aviation leads the sectoral breakdown with growth of 4.1 mb/d from 2021 to 2045, given its slower initial recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. It is followed closely by road transportation and petrochemicals.
13. Non-OPEC liquids supply expands in the medium-term to 71.4 mb/d by 2027, before an expected decline to 67.5 mb/d by 2045.
14. OPEC liquids are set to grow to 42.4 mb/d by 2045, with its share of global supply rising from 33% in 2021 to 39% in 2045.
15. Global refining capacity additions are projected at 15.5 mb/d between 2022 and 2045.
16. Robust medium and long-term refinery capacity expansion in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa, is partly offset by closures in developed regions.
17. Strong demand growth is expected to lead to a tightening medium-term downstream market relative to 2021.
18. The global oil sector will need cumulative investment of $12.1 trillion in the upstream, midstream and downstream through to 2045, equating to over $500 billion each year.
19. Recent annual investment levels have been significantly below this, due to industry downturns, the pandemic, and the increasing focus on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues.
20. Crude and condensate flows between the Middle East and Asia-Pacific remain the most important oil trade link, with volumes increasing from below 13.5 mb/d in 2021 to 19.5 mb/d in 2045.
21. The Asia-Pacific region is forecast to remain the most important crude oil importing region throughout the forecast period, with imports rising by over 7.5 mb/d.
22. Technological advancements are set to shape the global energy landscape while public policies relating to energy demand and supply are expected to become more stringent over the forecast period.
23. Enhanced global cooperation could allow for a more coherent, balanced and integrated approach for realizing the Paris Agreement and the interlinked Sustainable Development Goals.
The WOO 2022 is available for download on the OPEC website and via two digital interfaces, the OPEC WOO App and a comprehensive interactive version, which can be accessed at woo.opec.org.
Mrs. Smith
Thanks spec my tootsies will be stomping the dance floor BAE this Saturday evening!!!
My itty bitty GSPE vibe
Some thoughts to pass the weekend.
I pulled the crystal ball out and polished it up for a look at a possible future path for Gulfslope.
The battle to increase exploration for more oil and gas will be front and center. I have no idea how the battle lines will be drawn or what the battles will entail. But even so, I am not so worried about the outcome, although patience and perseverance is required.
One of the greatest powers of Congress is to deny funding to groups or activities that rely on government money (like climate research grants, EV purchases, or student loans). Let the special interests fund their own projects and jobs. Do not stick the taxpayers with paying to service this astronomical level of debt.
These are budget cutting opportunities we can use to help pay off debt without raising taxes.
If you cannot outright fire whichever ones are against the will of the people, just defund them, shut them down, and shut them up. It works. This is one of the reasons we have elections.
The idea that we will end fossil fuels anytime in the near future is just some politician’s dream agenda being used to further the quest for power and control over the population.
The truth is that those ‘green dreams’ will not work out with today’s available technology and infrastructure.
Automakers and States wishing to go to 100% EV production and sales better have a contingency plan in place if they care about shareholders, the voters, and jobs (especially, theirs).
In spite of the best efforts of ‘green faced’ politicians, I speculate that, at best, renewables will secure around 35% of the energy mix by 2035. EVs will be less than that in total vehicles in use.
100% renewable energy is about a generation premature and the people are aware of it.
We should stop the subsidizing of green projects and EVs. Require them to be competitive in the marketplace, if they can be. Let the investors shoulder the risk of success, not the taxpayers.
Another budget cutting opportunity.
Therefore, while they continue to develop and mature, renewables will exist mostly to supplement oil and gas, not the other way around.
Fossil fuels and nuclear will continue to be the primary energy sources far into the future.
So, instead of being denigrated as in the past, the future perception of exploration and drilling will be that it is vital to the well-being of our society, provides hundreds of thousands of jobs and billions in tax revenue. It will be desired, supported, and celebrated.
Fast-forwarding, the Tau 2 will be drilled, along with other Gulfslope projects, and all ends well.
Patience and perseverance prevails.
Mrs. Smith
Another day, another donut
Cricket donut
In the war on fossil fuels, maybe GSPE is a sleeper cell la resistance’
Common sense domestic energy policy may be at the doorstep
Let them in
Inexpensive domestic energy production via free and unobstructed, responsibly operated, US companies is in the best interest of everyone
Envoy your weekend and don’t feel regret if you stomp on the loud pedal in your truck a bit more than usual
Your truck motor wants to sing every now and then
Mine does anyway
spec
WTI pointed right at $90 and NG (Henry Hub) bouncing a little off of the recent dip under $5
The warning signs are plentiful that energy infrastructure is a soft target. Numerous attacks already and drone activity concerns at locations far from hot war zones
There is no Strategic Spare Capacity in production, transport, or refining
We need the “All Sources Welcome” policy to ensure peace and prosperity, both domestic and for our interests abroad
Drill domestic oil
Drill Tau2
spec
GSPE I hope the Crepuscular, God rays shine bright and you have the biggest smile
Looking forward to your next chapter!
Another perspective on fake science and climate.
https://www.aier.org/article/fake-science-fuels-climate-extremism/
Mrs. Smith
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