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I may be MIA for a while. Not sure yet, but likely. So keep an eye out for el Mucho Lurko in case he has a question.
Spec will be fine without my presence. I will be back as soon as possible.
Until then,
Mrs. Smith
My Perception was that the Participant’s Performance was conducted Professionaly while Palavering about Popular energy Policies, and they did not disrespect the Platform. They seemed knowledgeable and I did not hear anything too objectionable. But it was +2 hours long.
One of the key points made is that between now and 2050 natural gas will stay a critical component of U.S. energy.
Super Yikes! Now we are cooking with GAS. The molecules of US energy independence. From GOM production too, I trust. So bring it on and drill Tau 2.
Mrs. Smith
That's a very worthwhile dialog to understand and frame our current energy market climate and forecasts
Edit - this is the roundtable meeting video post that I refer to
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=171048417
One caveat - Since it is a televised congressional committee hearing, it is subject to the usual political circus priorities, sound bites, gotcha's, touche's, lies, and ignorance
In between it is laced with nuggets of wisdom and valuable observations, mostly from the real-world experts, just a few from House members
I do love it when a Rep tries to get a YouTube snippet of a dig on some aspect of the energy industry and the response is quick, truthful, and just BODY SLAMS the Rep in his face
Folks, don't let the congressional clown show (and embedded lies) distract you, observe the important stuff in between
That video is a good update on the tone of our relevant sector policies
Some very encouraging dialog and the upstream sector is feeling the tide rising
WTI started strong, topped $82, and has already fallen to $80
Nat Gas falls below $3
spec
A January 26th Roundtable on American Energy Security by the Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy, Climate, & Grid Security.
A video of your government in action. Enlightening throughout.
‘On the road to a healthier offshore industry’, released January 23, 2023.
https://www.workboat.com/viewpoints/on-the-road-to-a-healthier-offshore-industry
Excerpt:
“Barclays’ 38th annual E&P Spending Survey calls for a healthy onshore spending increase with an upside bias, but importantly they see offshore spending increasing at twice 2022’s rate of increase (24% vs. 12%). This should be welcomed news for offshore contract drillers and their support providers, especially as producers are stepping up deepwater drilling in addition to more shallow-water work. Hunting elephant oil deposits in deepwater is becoming a higher priority for producers assessing long-term global oil industry supply/demand dynamics and their production profiles, especially as the prolific U.S. oil shale basins offer limited growth opportunities.”
Mrs.Smith
A quote by Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm on January 23, 2023.
“Yeah, so, first, with respect to LNG, we know that our liquefied natural gas exports have been a significant help to our allies.”
“And it’s an important — it’s very important to make sure that they have the means. We are fortunate in that we have an abundance, obviously, of natural gas in this country. Our prices are low. But during times of challenge, we want to help our allies as well.”
“We want to make sure it’s the cleanest natural gas, which is one of the reasons why the Inflation — excuse me — the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law really invested in carbon capture strategies and storage strategies.” (Inflation? Was that a Freudian slip?)
“So, that’s an ongoing issue and an ongoing conversation we’re having with industry…. Unquote.
Below is a link to an EIA article titled, ‘Pipeline projects announce to expand Permian natural gas capacity’.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=53319#
Mrs. Smith
While investing, one may rarely get to ‘beyond a reasonable doubt’, but we can still make good decisions by following the ‘preponderance of the evidence’ rule. If you look closely, the power and strength of these stock moves is towards higher prices.
We might soon have new folks attending our party. From the totals at some popular sites, there are about twice as many following GSPE now as was following it several months ago. Just thought that observation might be of significance to some.
Whale watching is turning out to be more interesting than was expected. Feels more secure too. This might be the sweet spot. I will wait it out from here.
“… I am just sittin’ on the stock every day, waitin’ time ……” (Otis Redding lyrics paraphrased).
Mrs. Smith
The 118th Congressional Bill, H.R. 22 (Protecting America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve from China Act) has been passed by the House. An update.
“NJ Democrat, Frank Palone said he plans to take advantage of the open rule to offer as an amendment a measure he sponsored that would create an ‘Economic Petroleum Reserve’, through which the Energy Department would purchase oil at a low price and sell when prices are high to address high pump prices.”
Palone failed to move his Congressional Bill, H.R. 8989, (The establishment of an Economic Petroleum Reserve) beyond the ‘Introduction’ stage in the 117th Congress under Pelosi’s control. So basically he still wants to sell the Strategic Petroleum Reserves to China at will (using the ‘waiver’ clause in H.R. 8989). Good luck with all this gibberish in the 118th Congress. Thankful for House Rs.
The first flaw I see with his plan is, that in order to be successful, you first need low prices. By the way, at today’s prices, Joe will not even refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) with the 266 million barrels he now owes it. The second flaw is that Palone is somewhat vague about how the profits will be used. This portion of his plan needs to be further developed before it can even be considered.
Some Ds would love to split the Strategic Petroleum Reserves in to two categories, the (SPR) and the (EPR). Again, good luck with that. Sanctimonious, Slippery little Suckers. Got to watch these guys, they are trying to both control the price AND create another revenue stream to fund their liberal agenda. Neither of which promotes national security in time of crisis.
Mrs. Smith
For the folks who are not seeing L2 in real time …
007 has left the building
Bid is 4 lanes wide from .006 to .0066 (edit - 5 wide now)
Tiny ASK is a pair of 8’s
Just ASKing for a slap
.. but all is quiet ….
…shhhhh
spec
Hickory .... Tanzanite .... Mahogany .... all blockbuster subsalt plays in the GSPE "sweet spot" of the shelf
blockbusters in their earliest days with crude in the $20's and $30's
GSPE had a successful capital raise with crude in the low $50's
.... Tau2 and WTI $80's ??
that'll make big numbers
The treasure map is just as enticing and the treasure is real
Poland Popped Putin's Pipelines? .... Perhaps
Someone knows who did it and archived satellite photos have most likely confirmed who was conducting surface operations over those exact coordinates at some time in the preceeding months
I spy .007 in the house again today, 10K on the ASK
Cheers
spec
Loving this price action
That GSPE 1 month chart is a thing of beauty
.007 on the ASK
… just a tiny bit
hmmmmm….
WTI holding $80
Nat Gas customers thrilled at $3.10
spec
Only $80 at .008 on the ASK
That’s all that is showing under a penny
Bid at .0065
Quite remarkable, IMO
Those recent tax sells are looking regrettable
But where’s the volume???
Ink or sink?
spec
Another small but positive day
As far as can be detected from L2, the float is locked up tight!
Almost entirely buys on the tape today and nothing on the ASK
…. except a few light slaps …
Lotta smoke
Almost farenheit 451
I double and triple-checked, I have no classified government documents
spec
My crystal ball is leaving me with the perception that the stock price should ‘stabilize’ between .007 and .01…..
Trading activity could slow due to reduced volume. The stock might come under pressure from manipulations trying to push the price lower.
The silver lining is this will be an opportunity to purchase shares at a reduced cost. But, unfortunately, not much volume to take advantage of.
So ‘dirt bids’ will likely not be tested. With the limited shares available to be purchased, it will be ‘first come, first served’.
Once again, there is no Path to remarkable levels of Personal Profit following that Plan. You can hold me to it.
As in the past, there are many that intend to hold their positions and perhaps add more shares. But buying is not so much dependent on the price. Depends on the volume.
Expect that higher share volumes will cost a premium. But some will get more shares anyway, before any news breaks. This may be the time for ‘better early than late’.
But please note, I advise no one to sell, to buy, or take actions of any kind. Caveat emptor.
Still waiting for the show to start. And I wish I knew the starting time. That would make it all much easier.
Mrs. Smith
The GSPE Elon poll results came in. The Yeps have it!!!
Your Tuesday GSPE vibe
Interesting open with a half million share slap on the ASK
- highest trade price in 4 months
green crickets
spec
I got a partial fill buy right before close today. If and when we ever get good news we will all be wishing we bought this under a Penny
Still only a whisper of volume but holding onto the uplift
WTI holding at $81
Nat gas low $3’s and making big % swings
GSPE - crickets …. but at least they’re green crickets
spec
Yep, I think it’s inevitable
spec
I’ll soon be canopied by the clear blue sky. Before I take off, I’d like to do a GSPE Elon poll.
Did the odds of GSPE’s ASK being lightly slapped go up today? Me first
Yep
Nope
By the way, I failed to mention that there are (10) GOM lease sales proposed in the latest 5 year BOEM lease plan.
See links for details:
https://www.boem.gov/sites/default/files/documents/oil-gas-energy/national-program/2023-2028_Proposed%20Program_July2022.pdf
https://www.boem.gov/oil-gas-energy/national-program/national-ocs-oil-and-gas-leasing-program-2023-2028
Mrs. Smith
I find solace in the expectation that the BOEM may hold as many as (3) GOM oil and gas lease sales in 2023. The (2) Biden stalled 2022 GOM lease sales, 259 and 261 from the 2017-2022 National Oil and Gas Leasing Program are now scheduled for the end of March and September of this year. Then there is the (1) scheduled 2023 GOM OCS lease sale, 262 from the 2023-2028 “Proposed” National Oil and Gas Lease Sale Program. This is how we will be able to determine if the administration will comply with the law and uphold it’s duty to the country to ensure the energy supply is secure.
I was not surprised that there was only “one” bid for the December 2022 Cook Inlet (offshore Alaska) lease sale, since the last BOEM Cook Inlet lease sale was back in June of 2017. By the way, the BOEM only has (1) other scheduled Cook Inlet lease sale, 267 on the 2023-2028 “Proposed” National Oil and Gas Lease Sale Program, which is in 2026.
For now, it is a good thing Gulfslope is focused on the purchase of oil and gas production rather than on the purchase of oil and gas leases. Reminder, U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) was 11.25 in 2021 and 11.86 in 2022. The EIA forecast U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) to be 12.41 and 12.8 in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
So, the trend is with us, and I am holding on to it tightly.
Mrs. Smith
Yes, the appointees across the board are simply campaign chips to be played
sadly, another case where managing expectations (downward) is currently my only defense against the insanity
I do sense some optimism of improvement in the upstream environment, but still no juice has been squeezed to fill the empty chalice of hope for domestic oil production
That would take some evidence of results in permitting
The Lease sale that was court-mandated to take place before the end of 2022 .... was held on Dec 30th, had exactly one company bid .... on one lease block
WTI low $80's is a lot less painful for the general public than $100, some stability would be welcome
Where's the next curveball going to come from?
spec
Well looking at the bio of the new Director of the BOEM, I predict that she will fit right in among the other unqualified members of this administration and will also be able to contribute to their incompetence at a high level.
But considering that it is Joe, no surprise that any of the appointments of his appointees would be of any higher caliber than he himself.
Just to refresh our memories, check out this link on the cause and effect of virtue signaling. And so, does this mean the signal is no virtue?
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/01/19/the_biden_administration_finally_admits_its_mistake_in_canceling_the_keystone_xl_pipeline_876557.html
Signing off for lunch break.
Mrs. Smith
Looking at the policy end of the market environment - new BOEM director
No indication of anything resembling a realistic stance on domestic energy production from fossil fuels
sigh
WTI hangs at $80 Nat Gas still in the gutter low $3’s because where do you put it if you oversupply?
I’d be a buyer here if I had a LNG tank
M&A uptick in …. 3 …. 2. …. 1
spec
I took note of that, Well done. So Mrs. Smith may want to reconsider the dessert! Pre mkt. looked like something might be brewing.
That was only 3 trading days ago
“sniff …. sniff” I smell smoke
No sign of Willie Nelson or Snoop Dogg but something is going on
looking at L2, bid swelling
and that ASK is so thin ….
will there be a swoosh and a bunch of firm slaps on that ASK??
….. waiting impatiently…
The bid today is a welcome confirmation of a tide shift
Headlines are broadly bullish on the economic resilience of Americans and China reopening
Energy, and oil in particular are hot topics with Saudi Arabia opening to crude contracts denominated in currencies other than $USD
Domestic energy independence will REQUIRE a huge upstream investment in GOM oil production
… and GulfSlope is a small, but likely, conduit between investment $$$cash and huge potential returns through exploration/development/production
… gotta play to win
spec
WTI -solidly over $80 currently $82ish
Yep, daily volume still isn’t enough to get excited about
… but the tape is not looking bad at all
Just a spark, a tangible nugget
That’s all we need to turn the smoke into a blaze
spec
Let’s goooo. .0052, back above a half cent baby!!!!!
Better leave the scalping to the professionals
If you have the wahoo sashimi, desert will be forgotten
If you mention GulfSlope along with your gratuity, you might soon be regarded as the smartest person in the room
Then again, it’s likely to be the case already
I know it can be a blessing and a burden too
I deal with it all the time
Cheers
spec
Well, I miscalculated. There are costs for TWO trades. One for the sale, but also one for the buy. After deducting those costs and the tax, the profit is less than $20…. My entree will cost $28, plus my beverage, and my desert, if I have one (probably not), and the tip. So disappointed. Not worth the effort. Maybe if I can do 200,000….., lol.
Signing off with sadness.
Mrs. Smith
I am thinking of finally trying it out. I am invited to a luncheon on Friday. Tomorrow if I can buy 100,000 shares for 0.0045, I can try to sell for 0.0050 on Wednesday. If successful, my net after tax profit minus my trading fee should pay for my lunch entree ordered off the lunch menu on Friday. I am so excited.
Mrs. Smith
While smelling the smoke, I was thinking the same thing about Gulfslope bidding on a producing GOM property they suspect has some unidentified subsalt potential.
Yes, buy a property that is already producing, do a new seismic survey with those proprietary imaging tools, identify new drilling targets, drill the well(s), and increase production. Maybe by a lot.
I have no information that indicates this is the case, but considering the company’s primary focus and expertise, it does make a lot of sense. I would be very surprised to learn that Gulfslope management had not thought of it.
What an exciting new approach to attracting investment money for future projects as well as for Tau, Corvette, et al, to say nothing of the big bounce in the stock price from the production.
I was also happy about the renewed focus on oil and gas, energy independence, and increasing capex by the new GOP representatives. About time that it is acknowledged there is no realistic path to energy independence through windmills and solar collectors, which cannot be utilized until after the 35th of Nevuary in 2050.
Mrs. Smith
Did you hear that Wyoming is considering the phasing out of sales of electric vehicles by 2035? This is to ensure the stability of the state’s oil and gas industry.
Awesome! How cool is that?
https://www.teslarati.com/wyoming-phase-out-evs-2035/
Mrs. Smith
No shortage of promising words from the swamp, but as you, I am looking for the actions
I did like that the “energy independence” angle is featured so prominently by many of the newly empowered GOP representatives
The only way to get there is to cure the hole (underinvestment) in upstream and midstream capex
It’s going to be crucial to our economic health, and for our allies
GOM oil and gas will certainly be a recipient of a chunk of that investment and I think the GulfSlope team is determined to seize the opportunity
No ink yet on financing or rig contract but you don’t go shopping for properties without a pretty good sense of how much cash is within your reach
The market seems to be indicating some stability in the oil supply chain considering the projections for China’s demand are pretty widely scattered
Global tensions are high and volatility rules the market
If GSPE can pick up an operating property with a subsalt prospect to explore …..
… that’d be awesome
Nantucket sleigh ride
spec
I agree with everything in your 3 posts, except I don’t find Joe’s words “soothing” lol
Yes, I too smell smoke. But it is not the smoke you would smell with Willie or Snoop. The smoke I smell is from the fire that is building under GSPE.
Or, to state it another way, once this company gets rolling, the KEY Element to Wealth will be the number of shares one owns.
Eventually we ‘minnows’ will stop trying to make $0.0005 cents profit per share on a trade and take advantage of this gift of abnormally low prices. Looking forward, one can make the argument that these share purchases below 1 cent are an absolute bargain.
These million GSPE share buys we are seeing tells me there are those out there that are waking up to that idea too, and realize that right now is the best time to buy these shares at rock-bottom prices. ‘Swoosh’ time is definitely approaching, so traders wishing to exit this stock should be getting ready.
And I am suspecting that these shares are being removed from the ‘trading pool’ and will be held on to for the long game to come. This may become a ‘boring’ stock to watch for a time as the share price stabilizes while the company moves forward.
It appears that Gulfslope plans to both buy producing properties and drill new wells. It is a proven fact that many GOM operators will skim the cream off the top of their production, then sell off what is left. It happens on land properties too.
The new company comes in with new ideas, new management, new technology, new drilling plans, lower overhead, and turns everything around, making fortunes in the process. This has happened often in the past. Perhaps history repeats itself here once again with Gulfslope.
A recent example of this is the rumor about Exxon and Denbury Resources. Exxon sold Denbury all their mature East Texas oil assets 25 years ago. At the time, Denbury shares were less than $5. Recently, it was over $100. And now it is rumored that Exxon is interested in buying these properties back once again.
Who can predict how the pendulum swings over time? But it looks like Denbury shareholders should do better than just OK. And GSPE is a much better opportunity, since it is not yet a mature asset, and still has all that growth to undergo.
My 2023 Wealth Plan. Stay the course with GSPE stock and do not be easily influenced to give up my position. Take advantage of these prices offered up by the ‘investing gods’ while they last, and buy even more shares with New Money. Hold on to them. Prosper.
I am a ‘whale watcher’….. And indeed, I am also looking forward to a Happy New Year in 2023.
Mrs. Smith
Fossil fuels will continue to hold the most prominent seat at the energy table.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2023/01/12/outrageous-conflict-of-interest-the-worlds-biggest-climate-summit-just-named-an-oil-exec-to-run-it/?sh=3d1b72445377
While on the subject, the EIA’s latest ‘Monthly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production’ analysis reflects that the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico significantly OUTPACED the national average in crude oil and natural gas production,10% vs 7% (oil) and 13% vs 5% (gas). Many have projected a decade of growth in the oil and gas sector beginning in 2023.
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/#ng-tab
It might also be noted, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) rig count increased by approximately 19% from the prior week. A great start to the new year.
http://www.dnr.louisiana.gov/assets/TAD/data/drill_weekly/WeeklyRigCountUpdate.pdf
https://www.workboat.com/offshore/louisiana-texas-to-see-increase-in-oil-and-gas-industry-job-opportunities
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/talos-strikes-oil-natural-gas-from-two-discoveries-in-deepwater-gom/
Additional articles of interest.
https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/news/2023/01/12/api-applauds-bipartisan-ferc-approval-of-pipeline-expansion-project
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ferc-transco-gas-pipeline-new-jersey-bpu-regional-energy/640362/
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/emerging-u-s-pipeline-bottlenecks-cast-shadow-on-otherwise-positive-long-term-outlook-for-natural-gas/
Mrs. Smith
Joe spouts soothing words, but actions show his true intent.
Joe stated he intended to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as he depleted it in a political move aimed for the midterm election. Now, it turns out that no oil can be purchased at the price Joe wants to pay. So the SPR has been drained of 266,000,000 barrels of oil and counting, exposing the country to a potentially dire risk.
Way to be consistently “irresponsible”, Joe.
With WTI currently forecast to “average” around $80/bbl in 2023, this administration has stated it has no intention of accepting bids at prices that high, even though prices could go even higher. So the risk to the country continues on unabated and grows with time. And bonus, the salt caverns where the oil was stored are also damaged.
A bit of positive news, the U.S. House in a bipartisan vote (331 to 97) just passed bill ‘H.R. 22’ forbidding future sales of oil from the SPR to China.
Now, if the senate will also pass it and Joe will sign it. Any takers?
https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2023/01/09/biden-doe-rejects-bids-to-restock-oil-reserve-n522553
https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/22/text
Mrs. Smith
“sniff …. sniff” I smell smoke
No sign of Willie Nelson or Snoop Dogg but something is going on
looking at L2, bid swelling
and that ASK is so thin ….
will there be a swoosh and a bunch of firm slaps on that ASK??
….. waiting impatiently…
spec
A million shares dropped on the bid and hardly a jiggle
WTI looking firmer $75
Nat Gas crumbling $3.60 (that's going to impact shale as well as the portion of thermal use that is flexible/agnostic)
Crude sanctions on Russia just starting to bite
Every single variable in the energy sector is like scabble tiles in a hamster wheel ....
and trying to make sense of the words that fall out
I do know this ....
"bids on four producing properties" suggests that there is sufficient and credible capacity to raise the $$ required to make good on that bid
Can't hang a hat on that,
but it's something worth considering
spec
Feels like the tide is rising a bit
Bid showing some potential and that ASK is …
spec
Nothing different today, negligible volume and some jiggles of bid building
So, just a hammock-induced speculation on ripples in the GOM assets
Global operators are currently under huge social pressures to make “green noises”, posturing for social acceptance, anything to deflect from the vitriolic narrative that has attacked the fossil fuel sector
Shell says “our production has peaked” and several majors are pouring $Billions into low-carbon, carbon capture, hydrogen, yada … yada …. yada
All to “please” those who attack, and especially those who can TAX
Cue the EU “windfall profit tax” theme song ….
One of the maneuvers to trim production is divestment of non-core assets …
…. like smaller producing properties
…. GOM assets in that category are exactly what GulfSlope is shopping for
The market for those properties can’t be very broad due to entry barriers inherent to the sector
Generally, I think it is fair to consider that the relevant dynamic SHOULD be shifted towards a “discount” pricing environment or a “buyer’s market” type situation
So, while rig lease and overall well costs appear to remain on the higher end, lease and property acquisition costs could be trending in a favorable direction
Big incentives to get GulfSlope active again and it is clear that the lights are on and the mission remains alive
If my Mega Millions ticket wins tonight I will call GulfSlope and light the fuse myself
BTW, I jumped too many time zones yesterday, it was actually the 3rd day of the circus and today is day 4
Maybe there will be a Speaker elected soon so that a few important issues can be rectified
Cheers
spec
Groundhog Day - rerun of yesterday
Little bump, little dump
Insignificant volume still but that seems to be the norm at this stage of waiting
WTI bouncy day but still low $70’s, Nat Gas low $4
Pretty much where it would be expected to trend in a stable, well supplied market
That’s not where the market is
No direction on policies due to the stalemate in the election of the new Speaker of the House (circus day 2)
Yup
Just another day
spec
A little spark but it didn’t get a supporting follow-up move before a seller whacked the bid
Bumpy but better than a week ago
WTI down $73
Nat Gas hangs at just above $4
Swamp circus reminds us that old bad habits are hard to cure
Still, there is a light ahead
spec
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