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CLUE: It happened twenty-five years ago when OPEC quadrupled world oil prices and plunged America into "stagflation". Fortunately, the non-OPEC producers still had a HUGE unexploited oil cushion to fall back on and simply pumped central bankers out of their economic crisis.
But that was 1973 and this is 1999 -- twenty-five years later the oil cushion is gone. Muslim nations will soon control virtually all of the world's oil exports. Since neither capital nor labor can create energy, the next round of energy-shortage-induced stagflation will leave central bankers helpless and they will seek military solutions to their economic problems.
It's the best-kept secret in Washington, Whitehall, Brussels, and Jerusalem, but it's just a matter of time until word hits the street...
http://iviews.com/articles/articles.asp?ref=IV0211-1794&p=1
Read all three pages...
Pretty good deal, eh?
Firms Facing Fines Up to $500 Millionhttp://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=578&e=3&cid=568&u=/nm/20021126/bs_n...
I read earlier these earlier:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=599466
Fact or paranoid fiction?
From time to time, the The National Investor wrote about the ongoing efforts of GATA (the Gold Antitrust Action Group) to shed light on their contention that gold prices have been artificially controlled by a cabal which includes our own Federal Reserve. In short, GATA has assembled considerable evidence that various financial institutions have made a bundle of money in recent years by betting on the decline in the gold price. This was done in a variety of ways; "short sales" of borrowed gold from central banks, hedging on the part of some major mining companies and the creation of complex derivative transactions among them. Until recently, these bets paid off handsomely, as gold went from over $400 per ounce in January, 1996 to lows around $250 per ounce more recently.
The trouble now is that, with gold prices having bottomed and now starting to rise, many of these same institutions face potential disaster. It has been reported, for example, that the banking powerhouse JP Morgan, Chase has over $40B of exposure to gold-related derivative contracts; these instruments could destroy Morgan's overall financial health in the event the gold price were to spike considerably higher. Thus, to protect Morgan and certain other financial houses in the same boat to one extent or another, it has been claimed that the world's central banks-led by the Fed-are now conspiring to keep the gold price from rising too much. Further, the way this effort is being conducted has opened up the entire financial system to a potential meltdown if the bankers fail in their suppression efforts.
Though GATA's claims, if true (which is likely) paint the picture of impending danger for the financial markets equal to or greater than anything currently in the Establishment news, they have none the less [sic] received short shrift. For the most part, the group and its adherents are dismissed as "wackos" and "conspiracy theorists" who are simply trying to come up with excuses for the lousy investment performance of gold throughout much of the last two decades. Meanwhile, a financial time bomb with possible ramifications extending well beyond the gold market itself continues to tick.
However, the recent publication of a March, 2002 report obtained by GATA has given significant new credibility to the group's claims. It has also made some people in the financial world extremely nervous. It seems that well-regarded mutual fund manager John Embry of Royal Bank of Canada authored a report on the gold market for his peers at the bank early this Spring. In it, he offered his viewpoint that - among other things - there has indeed been a "conspiracy" to suppress the gold price, the suppression has been engineered chiefly by the US Federal Reserve, and that the Fed is scared to death that it could lose control and have tens of billions of dollars worth of gold-related derivatives to clean up one day. Somehow, this report made its way outside the four walls of RBC, and ended up in the hands of Bill Murphy at GATA. Needless to say, Murphy has spread Embry's report far and wide. I would too, if I were him; after all, Embry is one of the most highly regarded money managers in North America. His firm is not some local coin shop where local militia members come to talk conspiracy over coffee all day long, nor is it the publisher of one of the many sales-oriented newsletters that hawk gold come Hell or high water. It is one of the biggest financial companies in Canada.
For their part, embarrassed (and quite angry) Royal Bank officials were quick to claim that Embry's report does not represent the bank's views. Instead, they say this was a report meant for other managers and big shots at RBC, and was not intended for public consumption. Bottom line, the bank is hopping mad that, of all the people who got their hands on this, it was Bill Murphy. (NOTE: Murphy claims that this report also went to some of the "biggest and best" clients of the bank, one of whom forwarded it to him.) Embry cannot be dismissed, however - and he is respected enough that this report is turning some heads as more people read it. As Matthew Ingram of Toronto's Globe and Mail put it in one article on this crazy story, getting such a well-regarded money manager from a major bank to essentially agree with what GATA has been saying for a few years now is, ". . .a bit like the US government admitting that yes, there was a top-level CIA plot to assassinate former president John F. Kennedy, and the whole lone-gunman theory was just a crock."
http://www.alertinvestor.com/pages/112502.htm
'Conspiracy is hurting gold' - SG
By: Ken Gooding
Posted: 2002/11/19 Tue 12:52 ZE2 / © Mineweb 1997-2002
LONDON - Those who loudly proclaim there is a conspiracy by some governments and investment banks to hold down the price of gold are doing more harm than good.
This suggestion comes from Frederic Lasserre, Paris-based economist at SG Securities, part of the Society Generale banking group.
He points out in SG’s latest Precious Metals paper from the economics team that gold is the only asset that “has inspired so many tomes, reports and websites developing the wildest of theories.” He says the proponents of these theories claim to be “defending gold from the powers that be who seek to banish it from the economic sphere.”
This is misguided, he suggests. “The future of gold lies in the capacity to attract investors - that is to maintain its appeal for new generations that are neither familiar with the gold standard system, nor any situation in which gold can perform its role as an asset of last resort. The rumours peddled by these ‘defenders’ will hardly contribute to this enterprise.”
Lasserre’s comments were sparked by last week’s rumour that a major US investment bank had suffered heavy losses on proprietary gold positions. He recalls: “It included some spicy details, one of which claimed that trucks were spotted loading gold into safes at the New York Federal Reserve. Not only is this rumour evidently unfounded, the details supporting it are staggeringly naïve. That said, they do reveal the fantasies surrounding gold. Behind the supposed trucks that were discretely loading gold at the Federal Reserve lie not only the makings of a successful film but the bank’s losses were apparently so great that the Fed had to lend it gold, raising once again the notion of a plot against gold.”
The SG economist also rubbishes what he describes as “one of the most widely known wild theories about US gold.” This theory has gained currency, he suggests, because it includes seemingly rigorous accounting arguments. The theory “claims that the Fed sold its gold reserves (8,149 tonnes) a long time ago and the stocks declared to the FMI are the result of clever accounting work.”
Lasserre says this is “a simple reinterpretation of the lost treasure myth that has been handed down throughout the history of civilisations and empires.”
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/UNID/LCLY-5G2ERZ
Aegean: Stk Market Rept, Nov 17
Interview with Ike Iossif
By Dan Bistline
Sunday
11/17/2002 12:30 PM PST
D.B. Hi Ike, back in April of 2001, you were among the very few to warn about the possibility of a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (see Weekly Updates Q2-2001, and Patriotism Proves a Poor Investment Guide, by Aaron L. Task) So, I thought it may be a good idea to ask you to share your thoughts about the current situation with Iraq. The equity markets, and the oil markets seem to indicate that war with Iraq has been averted, what do you think?
I.I. First of all let me make something very clear, I am not a National Security expert, however, because I invest on behalf of foreign investors on a global basis, I am forced to look at geopolitical factors in formulating a global investment strategy, thus I must have an opinion on geopolitical matters. What I'll discuss with you is simply my opinion -as a portfolio manager- and it is based upon our research, it should not be regarded as an "expert" opinion, and it does not reflect a judgment whether certain actions taken by the U.S. and others are justified, or, unjustified. As a portfolio manager, I am only interested in how certain actions, and geopolitical developments may affect the fortunes of my clients.
It is my opinion, that war with Iraq is almost inevitable, not because Iraq poses a present and clear danger to our National Security but because a) the situation in Saudi Arabia poses a clear and present danger to vital economic interests b) Iraq will eventually pose a real danger 5 years down the road, and c) the National Security Strategy document released by the Bush Administration on September 20, unmistakably indicates a clear departure from previous approaches, it speaks of "American Internationalism" and it advocates global and permanent U.S. military and economic domination. (you can download the President's National Security Strategy document by clicking here)
Let's elaborate on these themes one by one:
A) The situation in Saudi Arabia poses a clear and present danger to vital economic interests. At the moment two out of the three countries in the Middle East with the biggest oil reserves -Iraq and Iran- are ruled by regimes that are unfriendly to the U.S. and Western interests. That leaves with only one country that is currently friendly to the U.S., and accommodates our vital economic interests, Saudi Arabia -which happens to have the most oil reserves. However, Saudi Arabia is becoming increasingly unstable for the following reasons: 1) Fifty percent of Saudi Arabia's population is under 18, most are educated in religious schools that advocate hate towards the West in general, and against the U.S. in particular 2) unemployment exceeds 16% and it is rising 3) Saudi Arabia is not a democracy, it is ruled by a corrupted absolute monarchy. The last time we had a combination of lot's of angry young people with nothing to do, in a country ruled by a corrupt monarchy was in Iran, and we all know what followed . The point is, the Saudi regime could fall, just as the Shah regime fell in Iran in the late '70s. Such a development will place all three countries with the biggest oil reserves -Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia- under the control of regimes that are hostile to the U.S. This is an unacceptable outcome, and one that neither the U.S., or its Western allies can afford to allow it to happen. So, the U.S. has two choices, either get involved in a potential civil war in Saudi Arabia in its effort to support the current regime, or, take control of the Iraqi oil fields, and thus denying unfriendly regimes in Tehran, Riyadh, and Baghdad to harm our economic interests. Moreover, by taking over Iraq, the U.S. is closing in on Iran by having military bases in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iraq, thus making it easier to overthrow Iran's regime later on. In other words, the reasons for going into Iraq now, have nothing to do with National Security, and Iraq's development of WMD. It has to do with the possibility of losing Saudi Arabia's oil fields, and the need to counterbalance that. If indeed the administration was worried about Iraq developing nuclear weapons and passing them on to Al Qaeda, then we would already be in war with North Korea. North Korea already has a robust nuclear weapons program and it is strapped for cash. Why would Al Qaeda wait for Iraq to develop a nuclear weapon, when they can buy one RIGHT NOW from North Korea? Therefore, regardless of what Iraq does, or, does not do, the U.S. will find a reason to invade in order to secure the flow of oil, in the event the current regime in Saudi Arabia falls.
B) Iraq will eventually pose a real National Security threat 5 years down the road. The worst thing that can happen is for Iraq to fully comply with the U.N. resolutions, while Hussein is still in charge! The reasons is this: such compliance will lift all sanctions against Iraq, which means Hussein will again have billions of dollars from the sale of Iraqi oil, to re-constitute his weapons programs and indeed develop a nuclear bomb within the next 4-5 years. The problem is that Hussein will never change, he'll always be the criminally insane murderous thug that he is, thus, if you leave him in power with access to oil money, he'll find a way to re-constitute his weapons programs. That means, Iraq is perceived as a present and future enemy. According to the National Security Strategy report, the U.S. has now embarked on an aggressive military and foreign policy, which embraces pre-emptive attacks against perceived enemies. If Iraq is perceived as a present and future enemy, then according to the latest doctrine adopted by the Bush administration, an attack on Iraq is just a matter of time, and it will come sooner, than later.
C) the National Security Strategy document released by the Bush Administration on September 20, unmistakably indicates a clear departure from previous approaches, it speaks of "American Internationalism" and it advocates global and permanent U.S. military and economic domination. A victorious war with Iraq will allow the U.S. to create permanent military bases in that country, from which it can affect political outcomes in the Middle East, including deposing the current Iranian regime. Such a development is called for, under the implementation of the "American Internationalism" doctrine. It should be noted that the administration has offered no "exit strategy" from Iraq, for a very simple reason, the U.S. will NOT be exiting Iraq any time soon. U.S. forces will be there to stay, just as they are in Japan and Germany half a century after the end of WWII.
Thus, for all the above reasons, I believe that a confrontation with Iraq is inevitable. Iraq's goal is to avoid a war during the winter, because it knows that the U.S. is highly unlikely to embark on a war in the desert during the summer, thus, it will have to wait until next year. I do not think this is acceptable to the U.S., because within a year the Saudi regime, and the Saudi oil fields may be history, a risk the U.S. simply can't take.
D.B. So, where does that leave the price of oil?
I.I. I would imagine that initially there would be a spike up, but eventually -if everything goes as planned- oil prices will come down. However, investors need to focus on the prospects for oil companies. The doctrine of "American Internationalism" will allow American and other western companies -in all fields- to expand in areas where now they are prohibited from. Large oil companies such as Chevron, Exxon, Occidental will be huge beneficiaries of this doctrine if it is fully implemented. And if it is not, they will still benefit from higher oil prices! Thus, over the next few weeks I'll be building a 7% position in our trading accounts, and a 10%-12% in our investment accounts in oil and natural gas companies, which I intend to keep for several months, and perhaps a few years.
D.B. What do you like in the sector?
I.I. My top pick would be OXY, I also like RD, CVX, XOM, SII, BJS, TOT, and couple of second tier companies such DNR and COP.
D.B. I would imagine that another huge beneficiary of the doctrine of "American Internationalism" should be the defense sector, correct?
I.I. Absolutely. People need to be aware of the fact that the proponents of the "American Internationalism" doctrine are holding key policy positions in the Bush administration. These people are: Paul Wolfowitz/ Deputy Defense Secretary, John Bolton/ Undersecretary Of State, I. Lewis Libby/ Chief of Staff to Vice President Dick Cheney, Dov Zakheim/ Comptroller for the Defense Department, Stephen Cambone head of the Pentagon's Office of Program, Analysis and Evaluation, Eliot Cohen and Devon Cross, members of the Defense Policy Board. They are among the authors of a report titled " Rebuilding America's Defenses" issued in September of 2000 by the "Project For The New American Century" (you can download the report by clicking here) That report has become the "blue print" of the current U.S. foreign and military policy. The report calls for a worldwide peace imposed and maintained by the U.S., a plan labeled as "Pax Americana," or "American peace." To implement such a plan, the U.S. would need to dramatically expand its global military presence and its military budget. According to that report, the U.S. would have to increase defense spending from 3 percent of gross domestic product to as much as 3.8 percent. Incidentally, for next year, the Bush administration has proposed a defense budget of $379 billion, which is 3.8 percent of GDP! Assuming the Bush administration and the Republicans remain in power defense budgets will increase in order to implement the plan. Accordingly, I favor the defense sector. Over the next few weeks I'll be building a 7% position in our trading accounts, and a 10%-12% in our investment accounts, which I intend to keep for as long as the Republicans control both the Executive and the Legislative branches of government.
D.B. Which companies do you like?
I.I. NOC, ATK, TDY, RTN, AIR, ARXX, AVL, BA, CW, GD. I really like TOD, EASI and UDI.
D.B. How is all that going to affect the U.S. dollar?
I.I. The dollar is a whole different story, at least for the next 12-18 months. I believe it is going lower. The FED's recent decision to lower rates by 50 bps, was intended -in my opinion- to accomplish two things a) instill confidence and b) lower the dollar. A lower dollar will bring inflation, which may help American companies to restore some pricing power and improve profits. In addition, the U.S is frustrated with Japan's and Germany's reluctance to enact serious structural reforms. Both Japan and Germany have put off much needed reforms counting on their exports to the U.S. to bail them out. The truth is, we can't have a robust global economic recovery when two of the world's three largest economies are dragging their feet. A lower dollar, will reduce their exporting ability and force them to make serious structural reforms at home. Thus, I do not expect the U.S. to make any serious effort to support the dollar, as long as the decline is orderly.
D.B. If the dollar declines, how is that going to affect the equity markets?
I.I. It is my belief that it will have an adverse impact on equities for the next 6-9 months, assuming it continues to decline. It should be noted that foreign holdings of US Treasuries, agencies, corporate bonds and US equities are presently at or near record highs, which means that foreigners have NOT sold, yet! A 5% reduction to exposure in U.S. assets by foreigners can have a drastic impact across a number of classes of assets. The International Monetary Fund estimates that 18.3% of all US long-term securities were foreign owned at the end of 2001; that works out to roughly $4.9 trillion in dollar-based assets held by foreigners. Just a 5% reduction in exposure to U.S. assets would involve the sale of approximately 245 billion worth of U.S. securities, that's something that can't be ignored.
D.B. What currencies do you like?
I.I. New Zealand dollar, and the NOK, especially the NOK, because of Norway's oil reserves. Any temporary disruption in oil supplies from the Middle-East should bode well for Norway.
D.B. How are you positioning your accounts?
I.I. Over the next few weeks I'll be building a 10% position in international bond funds
D.B. I guess you must like gold.
I.I. Yes, I do as a part of a diversified portfolio. I currently have a 7.5% position in our investment accounts, and a 5% positions in our trading accounts, I intend to increase both by 2.5% if gold closes above $330 per ounce, and the XAU closes above 71.
D.B. What are you holding now?
I.I. MDG, NEM, and GLG. I'll add GG and ASA.
D.B. Is there a "top pick" for next week?
I.I. Well, the stock I like the most, is a Canadian oil and gas company, Talisman Energy, symbol TLM, I like it as long as it holds above 33.
D.B. thank you Ike, we'll talk again next week.
HOME
http://aegeancapital.com
401k's, PPTeams S&P futures, bond rebalancers
take your pick, they all help
but the S&P chart has not yet pierced the neckline in...
THE MOTHER OF ALL BEARISH HEAD & SHOULDERS
all world bourses show the same pattern except the Nikkei
their died years ago
their stock market is walking dead, just like their banks
dollar decline resumption is imminent
from this point on, it is all about the dollar
US$ should lead gold up, stocks down, bonds down
/ jim
Jim- A couple of thoughts that may keep the effect of 1929 from happening. FERS (Federal employees retirement system) and TSP (Thrift savings plan)- government programs for retirement. Every month, government workers put 7-12% of their paycheck into the program. imo, this is holding up the system.
Do you think this may be holding back the "wash" we need in the market?
So Jim... getting back to what I originally said... the chart "at that point in time" looked bullish, no?
Doing the best I can to not bite your ankles. <vbg>
woof, woof woof woof...
Regards,
Michael
parallels to 1987 are unmistakable, but totally unlearned
some disturbing social trends that I have detected
these are not small, nor minor in importance
we dont learn from mistakes
instead, we repeat them with amplification
we dont study the past traumatic events
instead, we rewrite history from political agendas
we dont prepare for the next shocking events
instead, we gear the entire society with more leverage and more innovative methods to expand credit
we unfortunately deserve what is coming
USA will be a lesser nation
its citizens will become more impoverished and dependent for care
/ jim
Deutsche Bank offered short Vivendi stock positions alongside convertible bond
http://www.ananova.com/business/story/sm_711160.html?menu=
Hi Jim... sheeshhh... it looks at though you could draw a ruler straight through those dips -- it would look extremely bullish if it doesn't break support from here. Gold stocks look steady at best, simply because of the results in last weeks election.
It seems as though the strength of the dollar is tracing the President's popularity.
Regards,
Michael
dollar took a tumble with the PPI news
more importantly, both stocks and bonds are being sold off
Dow minus 80, but TENS yield up 4.0 bpt
here is the clownbuck, now at 105 flat
a sign of things to come -- all down (stocks, bonds, dollar)
/ jim
preview of things to come in Trez bond market -- TROUBLE
this is the THIRTY
I wish I had this in the TEN
the deflation-inspired falling rate phenomenon is coming full speed headlong into the dollar-risk inspired rise rate requirement
gonna be rocky
this is the stuff of market crashes
a little shockwave from PPI today
+1.1% with cars
+0.5% without cars
just undermines confidence in USGovt data
since car prices are not going up
/ jim
JW,
Cope is nasty stuff.
Scary economic days ahead.
jpg
AlQaeda interview confirms my long suspicion: US$ targeted
Al-Usuquf insists that September 11 "was just the beginning. It was a way to call the world's attention to what's going to happen." He then details a plan to destroy the US by "attacking the heart of what they consider the most important thing in the world: money".
(my suspicion since last winter... target is the USDollar, which is far far more vulnerable than we imagine)
.....
"So 75 percent of its GNP comes from services, and most of it is financial speculation."
(this is untrue, since services include restaurants, tax prep, FedEx etc, oil drilling, business consulting, teaching, repair of HVAC, installation of equipment, simple banking services, simple insurance services, landscaping, cleaning, etc... I would say speculation is a mere 5-8% of services)
.....
"What I'm saying is if US credibility is affected, its stocks - the US dollar - will fall at tremendous speed, and the whole American economy will collapse."
(I agree, very possible, or at least slow enough to cause havoc)
.....
"Seven nuclear heads have already been positioned on American soil, before September 11, and they are ready to be detonated. Before September 11, American security was a fiasco, and even later, if we needed, we could position the bombs there."
(as frightening as this sounds, extremely possible, provided AlQaeda indeed possesses such weapons, which is very doubtful, but I have been concerned about Soviet nukes on black market since 1991)
.....
"As to the "rich people", they are "people who are also tired of seeing the US bleeding the rest of the world."
(we do bleed the whole world in order to sustain our consumption and standard of living, with financing now at $800-900 billion per year, and by securitizing our Trez debt all the risk lies in the holders, whereas with South America by setting it up as installment loans all the risk lies with them)
ME:
some serious shit is coming down the pike
we Americans live in LaLaLand with thoughts of security
our society and land is an open book, an open door
how can we stop weapons when we still issue passports to terrorists?
we have 1000's of cargo containers entering our ports
we saw many of them in Long Beach CA oceanside in early October
anyone who thinks these are inspected is kooky
think GOLD
since with/without terrorism, the USDollar is toast
this is a great time not to live near NYCity, LA, Chicago, SFran, WashDC, Boston
Pitt is a dump, but it might be a safe dump fully 500 miles due east and slightly south of Chicago
/ jim
no, but several guys at work here chew Cope / jw
AF, scarey stuff all of it, scarey decade coming, buy gold /jw
lower ST rates will also lead some into buying gold / jw
one more log on the JPMorgo fire, UCK EM (Merrill next) / jw
I saw this link posted on another board...
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/DK15Aa01.html
if legit,very scary stuff
She was on TV the other day. Quite the personality. Made me think I could get the house paid off this year, LOL.
Hey!!! Life is good, check this out!
http://www.savekaryn.com/
How would you like these pay raises in the last 20 years.
$60,662.50 to $150,000
http://www.congresslink.org/sources/salaries.html
JW-one more,from this a.m.(BL=bin-laden)- Jurzbill..You are right on track..
BL is merely a actor..
Used for the entertainment of sheeple..
Towards the ultimate goal of the NWO..
All the world is a stage..
Actors
Directors
Producers
And
An Audience
"The Matrix" has much to say..
For those that pay attention..
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=GRENSPAN&read=27605
This is just the beginning..
JW-here is one of many- THE COINCIDENCE THEORY'S FATAL FLAW
"In politics nothing happens 'by chance. If something happens, then you can bet that it was planned that way."
-Franklin Delano Roosevelt
It has become standard technique for debunkers of conspiracy theories to counter with the coincidence theory. The coincidence theory assumes that if an act or series of acts seemingly benefits certain individuals and ideologies, it's all explainable as random chance or an act of God.
I'm sure that the unelected President Dubya's Christian base firmly believe that God himself is felling Democrats from the sky with righteous anger. Mel Carnahan, JFK Junior, Paul Wellstone. No doubt, God himself also mailed the anthrax to Tom Daschle and Patrick Leahy.
The obvious comparisons to the death of Mel Carnahan, the Missouri Democrat who was running against John Ashcroft two years ago, have been avoided like the plague by the mainstream media. Also, Mr. Wellstone died 11 days before the election. If he had died 10 days before, the Democratic Party could have left his name on the ballot. He would be a shoe-in as a sympathy vote, then the Dems could find someone later to take his seat. As it is now, the Dems must replace Wellstone. This might be how Karl Rove envisions a Republican victory.
Coincidentally, this time the wife of the prospective Democratic Senator has also died. Fat chance of Mrs. Wellstone running in the place of her husband, as Jean Carnahan did in Missouri.
My belief is that if too many coincidences happen too many times, concurrently and benefiting a select group of sunsofbitches - then coincidence theory goes out the window. Conspiracy is afoot, my friend, and those involved have become emboldened by their deceitful successes since the stolen election and the 9-11 (The great deception)#1 terror attack. Now they have become so arrogant as to be blatantly obvious.
How long will we just sit here and let them kill our dreams, kill our hopes and kill our heroes. How long will we allow them to poison us with lies and false flag terror. How long will we allow them to strip us of our right to fair trials and open investigations?
Time to get off the fence friend.
I'm making plans to head off to the old nickel mine - I'll make sure to wire in the Internet, stay in touch, maybe refurbish the old miner's quarters and kitchen. Might have visitors seeking sanctuary.
How far will the Bush Junta extend their tentacles of terror and propaganda before we stand up to these thugs?
I say the time is now. No more sittin' around hoping to placate these blood lusting imperial terrorists by caving in to their demands for more power and weapons of mass destruction - it only encourages them.
Off to the nickel mine! A redoubt against the coming fascist wave, a place to which like minds can strategize the defense.
And plan the counterattacks.
I digress, more on the nickel mine in future issues.
As for right now, don't give up the fight. Don't let them silence you with the epithet : "You're a conspiracy theorist?" or "What? You're still a Liberal?"
Honor Paul Wellstone's life by picking up the torch from his now stilled hand. Ensure that his voice and his message will not be lost - the one in which he once demanded social justice and meaningful democratic reform in the Senate. Make it yours.
Continue his fight against Bush's War machine and his struggle for meaningful campaign finance reform. Interestingly, Senator Paul Wellstone fought to bolster Americans' privacy rights and limit government surveillance of the Internet.#2
The roster of American politicians actually representing the working poor, the disenfranchised, the disadvantaged and the oppressed are dwindling. If Senator Wellstone stood for anything it was in the conviction that we can all make a difference. If you can't organize, or be involved first hand, there are other ways.
It only takes a moment to write a letter to your political representatives, or newspaper editors, or local TV News director.
Coincidence after coincidence after coincidence...
When do the coincidences end?
As anyone knows, conspiracies do happen. Over and over again, throughout history. In the old testament and new. Certainly, the ancients were no stranger to conspiracies. They wove in divine conspiracies between Gods and demi- Gods, humans and beasts, in their mythologies. Their own human political experience was fraught with internecine revolts, betrayals and coups. And so on throughout the ages, in every civilization, thus has it always been.
One could even say that the founding of the United States of America was a "Masonic" conspiracy.#3
More recently, Iran Contra was surely a conspiracy. Watergate. The Gulf Of Tonkin. The FBI and the CIA spying on their own citizens, sometimes setting them up for criminal prosecution if they have "unfavorable" political views.
It happens.
At this point the fall back line is the following : "Whatever there faults, I can't see any group of Americans going so far as to allow their own citizens to be harmed. No matter what the goal."
One need only look back through the CIA and FBI's history of deceit to answer that one. It has occurred in the past that the US government used their own people as guinea pigs after World war II and during the atomic age.
Or find a copy of James Bamford's book "Body Of Secrets."#4 Look up "Operation Northwoods"#5 and find out how the Joint Chiefs back during JFK's presidency had presented him with a plan. A plan to stage mock terror on their own population and to frame Cuba for it. Thus getting the public behind an invasion of the island.
This was after the failed Bay Of Pigs fiasco, and President Kennedy rejected the plan. In fact, he had become so enraged with the CIA that he threatened to tear the agency apart and "throw it to the winds." A magic bullet cut short those plans. Besides restructuring the intelligence agency, Kennedy was also reputed to be seriously considering pulling out of Vietnam. Kennedy's predecessor, General Dwight D Eisenhower, had warned us all of the danger of the military industrial complex. It didn't matter, the fix was in.
Given an updated version of "Operation Northwoods", probably designed with his father's input, could George W Bush be in any position other than to sign off on it?
George W Bush is no John F Kennedy.
Better yet, get a copy of "The Grand Chessboard"#6, by neo-con strategist Zybigniew Brezhinski. In that book, Brezhinski lays out the future geopolitical struggle for the oilfields of the Mideast. He foretold of the coming "clash of civilizations." He even lays out how to make the Islamic world the West's boogy men - terrorism and an event like Pearl Harbor to get the citizenry behind any wars of aggression.
Besides, making deals with dictators and terrorists are a Bush family calling card. Grandpa Prescott #7 traded with the Nazis, Poppy Bush #8 was a CIA director before becoming President and his fingerprints are all over the atrocities committed in South America - not to mention selling stinger missiles to Iran or helping to create the Hussein monster in Iraq. There's another Prescott, an Uncle, who sits on the US-Chinese trade board. When the massacre in Tianmen Square occurred, it seemed not to faze the Americans on that board. Foreign investment in China increased.
Preston Peet, at disinfo.com,#9 writes:
Just one month after the Tiananmen Square massacre in China, then-President George Bush, whose son is being actively sold as the Republican choice for President in 2000, sent two American envoys to Peking to meet with the Chinese government to reaffirm US business ties to China in secret, Brent Scowcroft, then the National Security Advisor, and Lawrence Eagleberger, the US Deputy Secretary of State. Both of these men had worked for Dr. Henry Kissinger's consulting firm, Kissinger Associates. Neither man would make public his business associates at their confirmation hearings before Congress, but they were confirmed anyway. Kissinger wrote Richard Nixon's China initiatives back in the early 1970s, and Bush's brother Prescott worked for a large consulting firm involved in big business deals with the Chinese government at that time.
(full story)#10
Maybe we should call it "convenience theory."
By the way, we are still waiting for an actual open and independent investigation of 9-11. Don't hold your breath now. Not too many Dems want to #### off the Bush Crime Family. Not with their Black Ops boys running wild.
I absolutely am not surprised how the mainstream media have Lee Harvey Muhammad (the alleged DC sniper - a crazed gunman, natch, only this time it's a package deal. Two patsies for one, but he was still, often, a "lone nut", and he's been reported to tell people he was working for the government #11 as an agent) and his immigrant step son tried, convicted and on death row already. What a charade this will be. Trust me, the Black Ops boys scored a big coup for the neo-cons. Check the prize! A black man, convert to Islam, a bodyguard for Farrakhan, a Jamaican illegal immigrant...
Whoo-hoo! Who'll be able to argue against racial profiling now?
I have to say that it was awful nice of the alleged sniper killers to lay down and go to sleep with the description of their car and their license plate number being blared across all media in the area. Even then, it appears that they needed a CIA plant to phone in the tip, the guy apparently wants no recognition or any of the reward. He said to give it to the families of the sniper victims. Wow. Nice guy. Right.
Never forget this Williams/Muhammad guy was an Army vet, in the Gulf. A sniper. It's not inconceivable he was used as an MK Ultra-type project #12. Forced to work as a double agent, perhaps informing on Farrakhan. Perhaps an unstable personality thanks to drug "therapy" when in the Army. (It's only a vaccine, right.) His CIA handler will no doubt win promotion and a dinner with Poppy Bush, "Let me tell ya, young whippersnapper. When we were psy-opping guys, we had to use more finesse. Our drugs were unpredictable, the LSD thing blew up in our faces. You guys got it soft..."
Learn to read between the lines - be aware of who benefits, whose will is being served.
Speaking of reading between the lines. You'll recall that after the Bali explosion, I theorized that this was an inside job, probably directed by CIA black ops specialists and local operatives working for the Indonesian secret military police. It's become quite apparent to dictator's around the world that going along with this Terror War has benfits for their control of power. It works well with the totalitarian mindset.
Well, word has emerged from Jakarta #13 about the curious presence of generals and East Timor militia commanders in the area prior to the blast. Perhaps that's why the British government run BBC (Blair's Broadcasting Corporation) trotted out a doctored video tape of Osama bin Laden #14 to terrorize Australians - keep them focused on the belief that Al Qaeda lusts for Aussie blood and the defilement of their women. Honest. After all, Colin Powell has warned Australians that the Bali explosion (which targeted a bar frequented primarily by the down-unders) was their 9-11. Osama to the rescue #15, deja vu all over again.
It seems strange that this enigmatic, shadowy Al Qaeda would target Australians when a bar filled with Americans was just down the street. I mean, if they are supposedly in a death struggle with the "great Satan", wouldn't they go after that place? Why hurt your cause by helping your enemy gather allies against you?
I'm not saying that these Islamic extremist sects are nice guys, they are decidedly not. In Indonesia, the religious violence attributed to the local radical Islamists is truly terrible. If they could have pulled this act of terror off by themselves, they would have taken credit for it, tried to exploit it to further their message. Instead, they have denied any involvement.
Closer to home, I am only afraid that there are more "coincidences" on the way. The neo-con elites' trained seals in the media are already barking about more terror attacks. Bridges, grocery stores, harbors...BOOM! Be afraid, inform on your neighbors, especially if they're colored...
After all, this is to be a war without end. We'll never know if we're winning or losing, as it will all be conducted in secrecy and the government will lie to you in order to protect you.
Terror here, terror there, coincidences this, coincidences that...
The fatal flaw of the "coincidence theory" is that there are just too many "fatal coincidences". After too many bodies start piling up, after too many disturbing facts start filtering through to the people, after too many heros are sacrificed, well then...people start to get very pissed off and are mobilized to action. Hopefully, Paul Wellstone's death will not be in vain. Maybe, just maybe, similar to what happened after Martin Luther King's assassination, real change can be realized.
We can only pray.
#1. Canada’s VisionTV breaks television media’s silence on 9/11 questions
http://hamilton.indymedia.org/front.php3?article_id=972&group=webcast
#2. Pro-privacy senator dies in crash
http://news.com.com/2100-1023-963440.html?tag=fd_top
#3. The Esoteric Side Of The Founding Of America
http://www.context.org/ICLIB/IC03/CoriGord.htm
#4. Body of Secrets
http://www.randomhouse.com/features/bamford/home.html
#5. Friendly Fire
Book: U.S. Military Drafted Plans to Terrorize U.S. Cities to Provoke War With Cuba
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/DailyNews/jointchiefs_010501.html
#6. THE GRAND CHESSBOARD: AMERICAN PRIMACY AND ITS GEOSTRATEGIC IMPERATIVES. By Zbigniew Brzezinski.
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/19971101fabook3692/zbigniew-brzezinski/the-grand-chessboard-american-p....
#7. Nazis and Bush family history: Government investigated Bush family's financing of Hitler
By Carla Binion
http://www.rememberjohn.com/Nazis.html
#8. http://www.tarpley.net/bushb.htm
#9. http://www.disinfo.com/
#10. is china buying or spying?
by Preston Peet (ptpeet@cs.com) - February 19, 2001
http://www.disinfo.com/pages/dossier/id229/pg1/
#11. Descent Into Evil
http://www.msnbc.com/news/825625.asp?cp1=1
#12. MkUltra Doucments Table
http://www.heart7.net/mcf/mkdoctable.htm
#13. Police release sketches of Bali bomb suspects
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailheadlines.asp?fileid=20021028.@01&irec=0
#14. Bin Laden warned Australians were a target of al-Qaida, BBC reports
http://www.canada.com/news/story.asp?id=%7BECDDDBDC-E37A-4DE8-B174-E5D4D3E78EB3%7D
#15. Osama to the Rescue, April 16, 2002.
http://members.shaw.ca/rb.ham/articles/02-04-16-osamatotherescue.htm
JW-link to poster if you wish to look further,imo,worth it-
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/memalias.cgi?member=piffle
Excellent!!Bravo!!- http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CLB00770&read=3149
JW-got that from Greenspan board on RB,repost from someone who has great posts re: IRS,and Fed,a bit off the wall though with "conspiracy theories" and "the powers that be",jmo,you can make up your own mind with my next post.
Why Lower Interest Rates Matter
Advisors Financial Center, LLC
Montebello Park
75 Montebello Road
Suffern, New York 10901
(Tel) (845) 368-0938
NOVEMBER 8 -- Many people seem to wonder if the latest interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve will help the economy when 11 prior cuts have not.
And they worry that the Fed knows something bad about the economy that the public does not know. In fact, the Fed gets the same data available to the public and past interest rate cuts have helped quite a bit. Therefore, the latest should provide some additional impetus to growth.
The notion that past rate cuts haven't helped requires that all other factors be ignored. We know that households have been on a refinancing boom, lowering their monthly mortgage payments or taking out cash to finance spending. This has been a great benefit to customers, who have been able to increase spending throughout the recession and to help support the economy in the recovery.
Lower interest rates will now force consumers and business to take more risk, since the return earned on safe investments, such as bank deposits, money market funds, or Treasury securities has fallen to very low levels.
-- Dr. Charles Lieberman, Chief Investment Officer
http://online.wsj.com/barrons/market_watch_today
7:28AM JP Morgan and Bank One to be hit with $1 bln lawsuit - FT : The Financial Times reports that JPM and ONE will be hit with a $1 bln lawsuit alleging they may have breached their fiduciary duties at National Century Financial Enterprises, where the banks act as trustees to bondholders; Med Diversified, one of the healthcare providers from which National Century buys receivables, said yesterday that JPM and ONE may have known of the alleged misuse of funds, and plans to file a lawsuit today against the 2 banks.
this chart says it all, response to Fed rate cut
time of cut was Wednesday 2pm
/ jim
wow, that one was a keeper
destined for a post on the office wall
where did you find that?
all the elements are now in place
dismal low shorterm trez yields
European Central Bank has put its head firmly up its ass
end of cover run motored by bond rebalancing
elections over, GOP will offer fiscal stimulus
the dollar has broken somewhat, more to come
path is clear to war
JPMorgo getting attacked by lilliputians of rumor
Brazil has new president-elect favoring default
gold has had at least three months to consolidate
what I find amazing and pathetic is the wide view held by many amateur observers that war is good for kickstarting the economy
I could not come with a single better reason why the economy would simply cave in
crude oil is off $5/bbl in one month
it now sits at a critical moving average (of support?)
the yield spreads have NOT reduced much at all
not enough to take pressure off the derivative explosives
probably another minor ambush on the gold longs
will take that as opp to buy more shares
/ jim
p.s. been real busy in the last few days
visitor from out of town, old friend from Boston
and prepping an article for publication on a main gold website
look out! the jackass is coming out!
Excellent read. Thanks.
THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANKERS..
Then Jesus entered the temple and drove out all who were selling and buying in the temple, and he overturned the tables of the money changers and the seats of those who sold doves. He said to them, "It is written, 'My house shall be called a house of prayer'; but you are making it a den of robbers."
Matthew 21, verses 12-13
"All of the perplexities, confusion, and distress in America arises, not from the defects of the Constitution or Confederation, not from want of honor or virtue, so much as from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation."
John Adams, Founding Father
(In a letter to Thomas Jefferson, 1787)
Congressman Louis T. McFadden said the following during a speech before Congress on June 10, 1932:
"Mr. Chairman, we have in this country one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve banks. The Federal Reserve Board, a government board, has cheated the Government of the United States and the people of the United States out of enough money to pay the national debt. The depredations and the iniquities of the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve banks acting together have cost this country enough money to pay the national debt several times over. This evil institution has impoverished and ruined the people of the United States; has bankrupted itself, and has practically bankrupted our government. It has done this through the defects of the law under which it operates, through the maladministration of that law by the Federal Reserve Board, and through the corrupt practices of the moneyed vultures who control it.
Some people think the Federal Reserve banks are United States Government institutions. They are not government institutions. They are private credit monopolies which prey upon the people of the United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign swindlers; and rich and predatory money lenders. In that dark crew of financial pirates there are those who would cut a man's throat to get a dollar out of his pocket; there are those who send money into states to buy votes to control our legislation; and there are those who maintain an international propaganda for the purpose of deceiving us and wheedling us into the granting of new concessions which will permit them to cover up their past misdeeds and set again in motion their gigantic train of crime."
PERVASIVE MONEY PROBLEMS IN AMERICA
Americans, living in "the richest nation on earth," always seem to be short of money. Women are working in unprecedented numbers, men hope for overtime hours to earn more. Many take part-time jobs evenings and weekends. Children look for odd jobs to earn spending money. But the family debt climbs higher. And psychologists say one of the biggest causes of family quarrels and breakups is "arguments over money." Much of this trouble can be traced to our "counterfeit money" system, which leaves government free to perpetrate the most destructive monetary and economic crimes.
On the national scale, in just ten years the federal debt has grown from less than one trillion dollars to over four trillion. (In Chapter Nine we will discover that the real national debt is much bigger.) The annual interest on that debt is over $250 billion. And now we are told (not asked) that we must come up with between $200 billion and $500 billion to "save" the S & L institutions. All this for only one reason: to protect and perpetuate a fundamentally flawed system whose only object is to enrich and empower the Federal Reserve bankers who own and operate the system.
During the last few years America has become by far the largest debtor nation of the world. And our politicians have made their "contributions" with boundless "generosity!" John Danforth, Republican senator from Missouri, was reported in The Arizona Republic of April 21, 1992 as follows:
"I have never seen more senators express discontent with their jobs. ...I think the major cause is that, deep down in our hearts, we have been accomplices to doing something terrible and unforgivable to this wonderful country. Deep down in our hearts, we know that we have bankrupted America and that we have given our children a legacy of bankruptcy. ...We have defrauded our country to get ourselves elected."
PAPER CURRENCY CAN BE A VERY PROFITABLE HUMAN CREATION
Economists use the word "create" when speaking of the process by which paper currency comes into existence. "Creation" means making something that did not exist before. Lumbermen make boards from trees, workers build houses from lumber, and factories manufacture automobiles from metal, glass, and other materials. But in all these cases they did not create. They only changed existing materials into more usable and more valuable forms. Not so with currency. Here we actually create something out of nothing. A piece of paper of little value is printed so it becomes worth a piece of lumber. That difference in value is literally created out of nothing. And with different numbers printed on the piece of paper, it can buy the automobile or even the house. The value of the paper has been created in the true sense of the word.
Paper currency can be created honestly or fraudulently. Gold and silver certificates, being receipts for gold and silver, with a guarantee to pay the bearer on demand, are honest paper currency. Federal Reserve Notes currently in circulation constitute fraudulent, counterfeit paper currency.
Counterfeit paper currency is very cheap to "create," and whoever prints it makes a huge profit! Builders work hard to make a profit of 5% above their cost in building a house. Auto makers sell their cars 1% to 2% above the cost of manufacture, which is considered good business. But counterfeit paper currency "manufacturers" have no limit on their profits since a few cents will print a $1 bill, a $100 bill, or even a $10,000 bill.
THE DANGER OF A MONOPOLISTIC CENTRAL BANK
Thomas Jefferson understood the danger of putting the power to control the currency of a nation in the hands of a few individuals in the form of a monopolistic central bank. This is why he opposed Alexander Hamilton's scheme to establish the First Bank of the United States. Let me repeat what he said in 1791:
"If the American people ever allow the banks to control issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers occupied."
President Andrew Jackson also understood the danger. He refused to renew the charter (a grant of monopoly) of the Second Bank of the United States. In 1836 Jackson said to the bankers trying to persuade him to renew their charter (so they could continue their harmful monopoly):
"You are a den of vipers. I intend to rout you out and by the Eternal God I will rout you out. If the people only understood the rank injustice of our money and banking system, there would be a revolution before morning."
On December 22, 1913, the day before President Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act, Congressman Charles A. Lindberg Sr. (father of the famous aviator) said to the House:
"This Act establishes the most gigantic trust
Jim... I forced myself to become a little more bullish on the PoG-- sold a biotech stock to buy a good ol'fashioned gold stock.
...added Cumberland Resources earlier today-- the juniors are still lagging in a big way, but if memory serves they catch up in a big way too.
-- just seen an interview with Robert McEwan, Chairman and CEO, Goldcorp -- he's pretty bullish, he's calling for $350 gold before the end of this year. Goldcorp also has over 6 tons of ol'yeller in inventory which is more gold than 40 small central banks combined around the world.
Regards,
Michael
The Fed Model
ROTFL
Somehow, I'll never have quite the same perspective on the Fed Model.
lurqer
nice dig on Pimco Gross article
I always love to read about The Fed Model
I continue to imagine it as a buxom babe working under the table on Sir Alan Hairless
/ jim
Take this rate cut and stuff it
Strategists, led by Richard Russell, heap abuse on market
By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 11:15 AM ET Nov. 7, 2002
NEW ORLEANS (CBS.MW) - The skeptics just don't buy it.
Contrarians - the folks who refuse to believe the American economy can stage a lasting rebound this year or next -- are positively irreverent about the Federal Reserve's easing of U.S. interest rates.
"This cut means the credit quality of America is going to the birds," said Mark Wellesley-Wood, chief executive of South African gold miner Durban Roodepoort Deep (DROOY: news, chart, profile). "It will make junk borrowing a common practice for the American public."
Wellesley-Wood, attending a New Orleans investment conference for wealthy individuals, was commenting on the Fed's unanimous decision Wednesday to reduce its target rate on overnight loans among banks to 1.25 percent, the lowest borrowing rate since July 1961. In addition, the Federal Reserve policy makers reduced their rate on Fed loans to banks to 0.75 percent from 1.25 percent.
Many of the strategists attending the 29-year-old New Orleans conference cater to skeptical investors - the so-called perma-bear crowd that would just as soon own gold, silver or water rights before they buy a blue-chip stock.
An icon for America's Fed-bashers, Dow Theory Letters editor Richard Russell, laid it on thick. "The Fed will fight this bear (market) tooth and nail, so this will be a long, tortuous bear market," Russell told about 800 paying attendees at the conference.
At the age of 75, Russell counts himself among a handful of financial newsletter editors, including James Dines and Joseph Granville, who have been tracing markets on behalf of individual investors for more than 40 years. Russell is credited with calling the top of the bull market in stocks that ran from 1949 to 1966. About 7,000 people subscribe to Russell's newsletter.
At the New Orleans gathering, investors were hanging on Russell's every word.
"When you follow the market, you are following the money," Russell said. "You find out where the money is. It sounds easy. It's not."
Russell says the stock market is overpriced even by the lowest estimates for company profits. If America's largest companies, as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, were to earn just $18.48 a share in core profits next year, the stock market would still be terribly expensive, the newsletter editor said. (Core profits exclude income from pension funds, with the cost of stock options deducted as an expense.)
In long lasting bear markets, stocks have gotten far cheaper than they are now, Russell said. In 1946, stocks traded at about 6 times S&P 500 profits. In 1973, it cost 7 times a company's average per-share yearly profit to buy one of the S&P 500 (SPX: news, chart, profile)stocks. In 1981, it was 7.5 times earnings.
"Now it's 48 to 50 times earnings and 45 times dividends," Russell said. "How is this market going to get to under-valuation? No one knows. But it will. And we'll see a Dow (INDU: news, chart, profile) yield of 6, 7, 8 percent. It will be a very long trip down." The Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 large companies currently yields less than 3 percent.
Russell said the losing stock market that began, by his estimates, in 1999, could last "anywhere from eight to 15 years ... maybe two decades." Most ordinary investors are best advised to keep their funds in cash, allowing it to compound slowly in ultra-safe money-market accounts or triple-A-rated municipal bonds, he said.
"This is going to be a very difficult period. It is going to be very deceptive," he said. "The ultimate concept to remember is that stocks won't be great buys until they are undervalued."
As for gold, Russell said his data showed a 20-month moving average of gold's price moving above a 40-month moving average in July, "signaling a major bull market" for the depressed metal. Technicians use moving averages to uncover what they hope will be lasting price trends for stocks, bonds, commodities and other investments.
Russell expects the price of gold, now at $320 an ounce, to equal or exceed the nominal level of the Dow average, now at 8,770, at some point. "Gold will cross at $3,000 an ounce, with the Dow at 3,000 or lower," said Russell
Russell invoked the names of stock market researchers and strategists he regards as the country's best, including Elliott Wave International's Robert Prechter, in presenting his view of a sharply lower stock market. Prechter, economist Stephen Roach and a handful of others see the possibility of a horrible financial depression in coming years.
"Unemployment will be a vicious problem," Russell said. "Before next year is out, we'll see another 20 percent drop in the dollar. China is at economic war with the West. I wouldn't be surprised if it backs (its currency) with gold."
As for specific recommendations, he pointed to Newmont Mining (NEM: news, chart, profile), the world's largest gold producer, as the "bellwether" investment in troubled fiscal times. Russell said the 18 gold mining stocks he follows demonstrated strong accumulation this week as measured by advancing prices on rising volume.
"There is going to be tremendous resistance to the idea of gold from the people who produce the junk paper. I'm talking about the Federal Reserve, of course," said Russell, eliciting applause. "The central banks want you to believe gold is junk and their paper is not. Gold has been in a bear market for 20 years. To many, it is only something you fill your teeth with."
On Thursday, J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM: news, chart, profile), the nation's second largest bank, denied speculation it was suffering from large losses on gold-linked derivatives. Gold Antitrust Action Committee Chairman Bill Murphy, attending the New Orleans Investment Conference, said he lumps J.P. Morgan Chase in with several other large banks that have dangerous exposure to gold derivatives. "It is only a matter of time before they explode and the gold price shoots to the moon," said Murphy, whose GATA committee believes commercial and central banks work together to depress the price of gold.
Murphy said central bank gold loans and swaps are around 14,000 tons, mine supply is 2,500 tons and a yearly supply/demand deficit of the metal is running about 14,000 tons. "Pile a mountain of gold derivatives on top of that and you have a gold price explosion that is just waiting to happen," he said. See: Morgan weakest among financial stocks.
What do ordinary folks say about all this? "At some point," said Paul Collins, a Monmouth Beach, N.J., investor, "people are going to lose confidence in everything but gold."
Collins, attending the New Orleans show with his wife, said he owns shares of Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX: news, chart, profile), a $150 million mutual fund whose value has risen 58 percent since the start of 2002.
"I don't know if gold's payday is going to be today, or three years from today," said Collins. "But I'm comfortable with it."
John Hathaway, New York-based manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund, says gold's rising price in October and early November, in the face of rallying U.S. stocks, is a sign something has to give, and soon.
"In my opinion, gold is now beginning to discount at least a temporary end to the current bear market rally in stocks," Hathaway told me from New York.
In New Orleans, where attendance is double last year's showing, lots of folks welcome that scenario.
Reuters
J.P. Morgan denies gold loss rumors, stock down
Thursday November 7, 10:12 am ET
NEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) - J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Inc. (NYSE:JPM - News) said on Thursday that rumors it had suffered large losses on gold trades were "false and irresponsible," as the rumors had damaged its stock price.
ADVERTISEMENT
J.P. Morgan shares, a component of the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average, dropped to a low of $20.55 on Thursday before recovering somewhat to trade down 4.6 percent, or $1.01 a share, at $21.05. The stock fell on rumors arising in Europe that the No. 2 U.S. banking company had lost between $17 billion and $70 billion on gold trades. A spokesman denied the rumors and analysts also discounted them.
"It's (circulated) at least three or four times this year, and it's always out of Europe," UBS Warburg analyst Diane Glossman said of the rumor. "They should please come up with something more creative next time than recycling old rumors."
Investment Outlook
Bill Gross / November 2002
http://www.pimco.com/ca/bonds_commentary_investment_outlook_1102.htm
nice chart of TBond, rates are rising
stock rally is looking eerily like late summer 1987
rising rates, rising commodities, falling dollar
BUT RISING STOCKS AGAINST THIS BACKDROP???
is that a Cup & Handle reversal there?
/ jim
Why the Fed won't cut rates
Commentary: Credibility is at stake
By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 7:34 PM ET Nov. 4, 2002
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The economy may need a rate cut. For the sake of its own credibility, the Federal Reserve doesn't.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={4B8D9E92-C92D-4342-9D99-041110E1B503}&siteid=mkt...
large govt policy errors are coming next couple months / jw
101 Reasons to Stay out of the Market
by 4FigureAU
November 4, 2002
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/4figureau/4figureau110402.html
For Whom the Closing Bell Tolls
BY JIM ROGERS
http://www.jimrogers.com/content/stories/articles/For_Whom_the_Closing_Bell_Tolls.html
Jim... a simple utterance from me, I can't see them cutting interest rates not in the face of falling oil prices. Just keep in mind that oil is key-- $30 oil is pretty much the ceiling for US economic growth, it always has been in the past. -- Falling oil prices might even give the fed a reason to hike interest rates -- yes, hike them! You can't hammer the ME with low oil prices and devalue your currency at the same time.
No way.
They probably will lower rates again, but I'm in strong disagreement if they do.
-
-
...as for whether the stock market is overbought, I just charted about 50 stocks this evening and the only stocks that are overbought are the same Nazcrap that were extremely oversold. I do see some retrenchment, but the next bull round belongs to the DOW Industrials.
Regards,
Michael
regardless of Fed Action, I expect stock selloff
no action: sell off due to refusal to support the economy and stocks, as we slidep perilously into recession once again
1/4 pt: sell off due to realization of its small impact, esp in light of 11 previous rate cuts that have left us vulnerable to a Double Dip (which is the norm, despite bullshit press/media utterances)
1/2 pt: sell off due to realization that the Fed has essentially used its entire quiver of cuts, with tragic little to show for its blunt tool approach in managing the world's largest economy
I regard the 1/2 pt decision as the most ominous for stocks
if a big cut, then the dollar falls down another 10-13% quickly, showing its extremely poor competitive stance visavis euro bonds, taking stocks with them as foreigners depart in larger droves... this mindless rally has offered foreigners a nice opportunity to exit at a higher price, thank you they say
I believe the dollar will be leading stocks now
at some point dictated once again by the Mortgage Backed Securities, the TENS will see a limit on lower bound yield, which will signal the bond TENS to cease & desist rallying
the USdollar is soon to be moving to CENTER STAGE
the USdollar will be the ultimate arbiter !!!
today the dollar gave back all gains, and has stubbornly refused over the past two weeks to join in the rally fun
today gold held its ground as stocks gave up the Dow +210
today golds reversed to register small gains
/ jim
p.s. USdollar chart for last three days
Jim... thanks for posting that-- I was contemplating the very same thing this weekend....a breakout, yes a breakout... I guess it all depend on what the fed does tomorrow.
What do you think will happen if they...
-- raise interest rates a half a point?
-- do nothing at all?
-- drop'em half a point?
Regards,
Michael
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