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I just lightened up on pslv as it is at resistance right here. Still think it might go to 13.50ish.
Technical Weekly Precious Metals Report
* Monday, February 20, 2012
Gold
Weekly Report
> See Charts
Gold starts this week within critical levels, where the metal provides several attempts to breach the descending main resistance level through the long candlestick followed by several short candlesticks. But, at the same time, the breach of this level wasn’t confirmed yet. The metal trades outside the ascending channel, but still, the level of 23.6% Fibonacci correction shown above was able to stop the metal's negative momentum. The metal is trading now around the critical resistance of 1735.00, while the positive formation of the candlesticks contradicts the bearish resistance. Therefore, we remain neutral in our weekly report, awaiting further confirmations.
The trading range for this week is among the key support at 1640.00 and key resistance now at 1794.00.
The short-term trend is to the upside with steady weekly closing above 1475.00 targeting 1945.00.
Silver
Weekly Report
> See Charts
Silver is still trading within the sideways range, while Stochastic is positive and the long candlestick seen with the start of this week suggests more bullish attempts. But, at the same time, trading outside the ascending channel and consolidation below the resistance levels at 34.40 and 34.65 could prevent the expected upside move. Therefore, we remain neutral in our weekly report, awaiting more confirmation.
The trading range for this week is among the key support at 30.30 and key resistance now at 35.70.
The short-term trend is to the downside with steady weekly closing below 38.00 targeting 20.05.
http://ecpulse.com/en/dailyreports/technicalpreciousmetals/2012/02/20/06-14-03/index.htm
George.
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
Aurcana: IRR and NPV of Shafter
By Christopher Wood
Investment Revaluation Catalyst
at 13:38 Monday, 20 February 2012
Aurcana Corp. (TSX:AUN; OTC:AUNFF) published a feasibility study ( http://tiny.cc/fgg3l ) on their 100% owned Shafter mine in November 2010. The study predicted a net present value (NPV) of $34M at a discount rate of 5%, an internal rate of return (IRR) of 32%, and payback in 1.9 years. Quite robust economics. But this study used a silver price of US $15.53 and only included the measured & indicated resource. What would the economics look like using the current price of silver and including the inferred resource? Vastly better.
I have attempted to extrapolate the original feasibility study in the following ways, in each case using the current price of silver ($33.28 at the time of writing):
1) Original (M&I): Only measured/indicated resources
2) Original (M&I&Inf): Both measured/indicated and inferred resources
3) Start-up (M&I): Only measured/indicated resources at production start date (accounts for sunk costs)
4) Start-up (M&I&Inf): Both measured/indicated and inferred resources at production start data (accounts for sunk costs)
The first two include the original capital costs, however, since all the original capital costs have already been raised (and the majority spent), these are really sunk costs. So, a more accurate estimate is consider these sunk costs and eliminate them from the calculation. This is done in the second two calculations.
In all cases, the results are stunning:
1) Original (M&I): NPV = $273M, IRR = 144%, Payback = 6 months
2) Original (M&I&Inf): NPV = $480M, IRR = 146%, Payback = 6 months
3) Start-up (M&I): NPV = $332M
4) Start-up (M&I&Inf): NPV = $549M
Here is the overall improvement in the important metrics between the original and these new estimates:
NPV: $34M -> $549M (~15x increase)
IRR: 32% -> 146%
Payback: 1.9 years -> 0.5 years
The calculations to back-up these results can be found here http://tiny.cc/0x1ti . They use the same 5% discount rate as used in the original study. The grade used for the inferred resources was the average from the feasibility study after accounting for grade reduction due to dilution (10.52opt *.91 = 9.57opt). Capital costs and operating costs were extrapolated to be the average yearly costs from the original.
Now these results look phenomenal, but I expect actual results to be even better for the following reasons:
* Resource numbers used where from current 43-101 resources, which resulted from drilling programs conducted by previous owners in the mid-to late 1990s and earlier. Aurcana is currently engaged in an aggressive drilling program on the Shafter property with results expected later in the year. There is high probability for resource expansion as a result of this program. This would extend mine life and/or provide opportunities for increased throughput.
* Increased extraction rates. The current mine plan calls for a milling rate of 1500tpd, yet Lenic stated in the Christopher Barker interview ( http://tiny.cc/oa8wb ) that Aurcana is considering upgrading to a rate of 2500tpd. This could cause cash costs to decrease. Additionally it would cause cash flows to be recognised sooner (reducing the impact of the 5% discount rate). The net result is higher NPV.
* Potential for recovery of gold, lead, and zinc from the ore. Current projections assume no metal by-products, however, historic drilling results hint that gold, lead and zinc are all present. Future drilling results could report economic quantities of metal by-products which could result in mill upgrades to extract the by products. This would further reduce cash costs.
* Potential for silver price increases. These estimates assume current silver prices, which I expect to be significantly higher in the future.
http://investmentrevaluationcatalyst.blogspot.com/2012/02/aurcana-irr-and-npv-of-shafter.html
Take it real easy coming off of Prednisone, as it's apt to leave you weaker than usual, so you need peaceful time without over-activity until you gain your own normal strength back at a moderate pace.
I was given it years back for an inflammation problem and it was fine while using it to dispel my problem, but it wasn't fun afterwards, as it left me feeling drained.
I trust you got printed information to study on side effects, ect.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prednisone
Ah, no worries tocotuga! Take care of yourself, a nasty bug going around! My German Shepard is on prednisone right now for allergies, makes a lot of his hair fall out, indeed nasty stuff!
Take it easy there bud.
Hey Tocotuga,
Prednisone ~ Nasty stuff, hope you're feelin better soon..
My apology, I misunderstood. Chalk it up to the Prednisone I've had to take for pneumonia-like symptoms...that stuff makes me feel weird. One final dose in the morning and then I should be back to normal soon enough. Seems like the second wave of a different antibiotic kicked in today as it wasn't as bad breathing.
Caledonia signs Memorandum of Understanding with the Government
of Zimbabwe relating to the Indigenisation of
the Blanket Mine -
TORONTO, Feb. 20, 2012 /CNW Telbec/ -
Caledonia Mining Corporation -
("Caledonia") (TSX: CAL) (NASDAQ-OTCQX: CALVF) (AIM: CMCL)
announces it has signed a Memorandum of Understanding ("MoU")
with the Minister of Youth, Development, Indigenisation and
Empowerment of the Government of Zimbabwe (the "Government
of Zimbabwe") pursuant to which Caledonia has agreed to sell
51% of the Blanket Mine in Zimbabwe ("Blanket") to Indigenous
Zimbabweans for a paid transactional value of
US$30.09 million on the following basis:
16% will be sold to the National Indigenisation and Economic
Empowerment Fund;
10% will be sold to a Management and Employee Trust for the
benefit of the present and future managers and employees of
Blanket;
15% will be sold to identified Indigenous Zimbabweans;
and
10% will be donated to the Blanket Gwanda Community Trust.
Caledonia will also make a non-refundable donation of US$1.0
million to the Trust as soon as it has been established.
Caledonia will facilitate the vendor funding of these
transactions which will be repaid by way of future dividends
from Blanket.
Caledonia expects to redeploy the sale consideration in its
projects.
Caledonia has undertaken to complete the implementation of all
the components of the indigenisation transaction as soon
as possible.
The Government of Zimbabwe has agreed that implementation of
the terms of the MoU will constitute full compliance by
Blanket and Caledonia with the requirements of
the Indigenisation Act.
Further details of the MoU are subject to a confidentiality
agreement, and further announcements will be made when
appropriate.
Blanket's unaudited revenues and profit after tax for the year
to December 31, 2011 were US$56.6 million and US$19.2 million
respectively.
Mr Stefan Hayden, Caledonia's President and Chief Executive
officer said:
"I am pleased we have signed a MoU which, when fully
implemented, will represent the conclusion of the
indigenisation requirements for Blanket.
The transaction will be concluded for a value which is close
to Caledonia's current market capitalisation.
( Note
CALVF Total Current Market Cap: $55,060,421.--
[A subsidiary company;
Blanket Gold Mine 51% = US$30.09 million on the above
following basis:]
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=CAL ?)
This is a significant achievement in the current environment
and the transaction is neither an expropriation nor a partial
nationalisation.
Excellent progress has been made at Blanket in recent years:
gold production has increased by over 300% from 3,148oz in
the first quarter of 2010 to 10,533oz in the fourth quarter
of 2011 and cash operating costs fell by 27% from $804/oz
in the first quarter of 2010 to $583/oz in the third quarter
of 2011.
I hope that Blanket and Caledonia can now build on this track
record of success.
The indigenisation agreement, when fully implemented, will
introduce new shareholders to Blanket and I am confident
that their participation will enhance Blanket's further
growth and development.
We look forward to working with our new shareholders in
further progressing operations at Blanket for the benefit
of all stakeholders."
Caledonia Mining Corporation
Mark Learmonth
Tel: + 27 11 447 2499
marklearmonth@caledoniamining.com
Renmark Financial Communications Inc.
John Boidman: jboidman@renmarkfinancial.com
Nadia Marks: nmarks@renmarkfinancial.com
Tel.: (514) 939-3989 or (416) 644-2020
www.renmarkfinancial.com
Newgate Threadneedle Communications
Laurence Read, tel +44 207 653 9855
Beth Harris, tel +44 207 653 9853
Terry Garrett, tel +44 207 653 9845
Collins Stewart Europe Limited
John Prior / Sebastian Jones
Tel: + 44 20 7523 8350
Collins Stewart LLC
Dan Mintz
Tel: +1 212 389 8022
DMintz@collinsstewartllc.com
Further information regarding Caledonia's exploration activities
and operations along with its latest financials and Management
Discussion and Analysis may be found at
http://www.caledoniamining.com
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=48600192&qm_symbol=CAL
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=72213549
God Bless
An outstanding interview with SVBL's President/CEO, Tim Barry....
A fast track to production: Silver Bull reports Mexico silver assays up to 144 g/t over 31m
Resource Clips Feb 17, 2012 – 2:24 PM ET
By Ted Niles
Silver Bull Resources, Inc (TSX:SVB; NYSE-AMEX:SVBL) announced assays from the Shallow Silver zone of its Sierra Mojada project in Coahuila State, Mexico. Results include:
* 19.9% zinc over 10.9 metres
* 10.06% zinc over 1.2 metres
* 109.39 g/t silver over 12.6 metres
* 64.93 g/t silver and 1.64% zinc over 48.3 metres
* 27.99 g/t silver and 4.57% zinc over 15 metres
* 144.04 g/t silver over 31 metres
* 67 g/t silver and 3.41% zinc over 20.6 metres
* 57.8 g/t silver over 14.8 metres
* 30.86 g/t silver and 3.14% zinc over 57.7 metres
* 61.7 g/t silver and 1.83% zinc over 12.4 metres
* 35.66 g/t silver over 20.9 metres
* 77.04 g/t silver over 31.9 metres
* 92.5 g/t silver over 8.3 metres
* 89.4 g/t silver over 36.3 metres
* 66.54 g/t silver over 16 metres
President/CEO Tim Barry tells ResourceClips.com, “Sierra Mojada has been a historical mining district for the last 100 years. Silver Bull emerged from a merger between Metalline Mining and Dome Ventures. When Metalline had the property, they had it for over 16 years and focused almost exclusively on the zinc resource there. When the merger was done, and we got to the project, we noted there was significant at-surface silver mineralization kicking around that had never been tested. Zinc at the time was living in the 50-cent range, so we changed direction for the company and started focusing on the silver mineralization. To date, we’ve put out two resource updates. The resource right now is sitting at 47.8 million ounces indicated and 13.8 million ounces inferred, and that’s out of a global resource of 84 million ounces.
“The model we’re using is similar to what Red Back Mining did, which was putting out regular resource updates every six months or so. We’ve got a very aggressive drill program underway on the property right now. There are three drills turning. The drill plan to the end of the year will probably finish up something in the order of about 50,000 metres of drilling. We have another resource update that we expect to have out 2Q of this year, which in addition to increasing the silver resource, will also, we hope, reintroduce the zinc to the story.
“We’re pleased [with these assays],” Barry continues. “What we were doing with this drill program was just testing the margins of the known mineralization. As the results show, we’ve still got some real thickness in grade. Interestingly, we’re hitting some really exciting zinc intercepts, particularly down the eastern end of the property. At the western end of the ore body, we were pleasantly surprised [to find] we had a significant increase in the grade of the mineralization as well as the thickness that we intercepted. Why we’re excited about that is because on that same trend there is a bunch of historical mine shafts that extend for another 1.5 kilometres that have never been drilled. So part of 2012 will be to focus on drilling on the western end of the known ore body.
“This year is going to be devoted entirely to continuing to expand the resource. We simply have too many near-resource drill targets that we’ve got to put some holes into. So I think we’ll start to consider a preliminary economic assessment in 2013. At the same time that the drill program is going on for 2012, we’ve also got a metallurgical program looking at both the silver and the zinc. The goal is that we’re going to keep drilling it out and defining the resource, to keep pushing this as fast as we can towards production. We’re going to keep rolling over 43-101 updates until the end of this year, thinking about PEAs and feasibilities in 2013 and where they fit into the picture.
“You’ll be able to put this into production very quickly for two reasons,” Barry relates. “One, a good portion of the mineralization sits at surface. Two, it sits at a slightly elevated position, which means you could gravity feed a lot of the ore to where you want to go. So the build-out costs, at least initially, should be pretty modest and easy to do.
“We’ve had no security issues whatsoever. Sierra Mojada actually sits at a dead-end road, which is an advantage for the simple reason that you don’t get any through traffic going into the place. The other key thing is that there is no surface water, so you don’t get any entrepreneurial horticulturalists growing anything there. We’ve had no problems at this point, and we’re probably in one of the few parts of Mexico where we haven’t had to organize a security company to come on board.“In terms of infrastructure it couldn’t be better. We have a paved road right to the site. We’re three hours north of the city of Torreon, which is where you fly into. We have a working railway right to the site — 600 metres away from where our office is. And we have high tension power lines that are 30 kilometres from the site.Regarding how the company is funded, Barry says, “We’re in really good shape. We’ve got $12.5 million in the bank right now. It will be close to $140 million shares out fully diluted.”
Barry explains why Silver Bull is undervalued, “Number one, we’re actually in this drill program, and we actually know we’re going to hit more mineralization. We’re starting the drills off in mineralization, and there is no better drill target that you can put a drill onto. So in terms of that, [the project] is incredibly low risk. Number two, we’ve got a huge zinc resource — that we’re going to get in the next 43-101 — that we get no value for in the stock whatsoever. The story between the silver and zinc are going to be quite intimately tied, because the way the ore body is set the silver actually sits over the top of where the zinc is. So you mine out the silver and finish with the zinc as the final paragraph. And simply in terms of ounces in the ground. As it stands right now, three quarters of the known silver deposit is in the indicated category. And we’re trading below peers. When you put all that together, coupled with a 50,000-metre drill program that is going ahead this year, I can see nothing but good news and good results coming forward.
“Our progress has been fantastic,” he concludes. “We had a lot of work to clean up the company when the merger happened. That is how I got involved with it. That work has been done. We’ve put together a fantastic team, led by guys with some solid proven track records, and they’ve put together a really aggressive program. We’re simply getting better and better at identifying the zones to drill and [output] from the drill rigs has been probably too fast. It’s kind of hard to keep up at times. I think 2012 will be a really exciting year.”
View Company profile: http://tiny.cc/x3rwp
Contact:
Tim Barry
President/CEO
604.895.7430
Read more articles like this at resourceclips.com.
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/02/17/a-fast-track-to-production-silver-bull-reports-mexico-silver-assays-up-to-144-gt-over-31m/
Everybody gonna turn to Ron Paul when the crash hits!
17.feb.2012
$8,890 Gold, $517 Silver & Hyperinflation Update -
Overseas PM action is rolling to the upside.
High's have been $1736 gold and $33.67 silver.
msnbc.msn.com US headline:
"The Japanese yen fell to six-month lows on the greenback on Monday, while commodity currencies jumped after China's central bank joined other major counterparts globally in stimulating growth."
Oil,currently at 104.25, will take a lot of gelt out of our pocketbooks over time at the gas pumps. I hate they're already suggesting five dollars a gallon for summer. I drive a hundred miles a day minimum at work.
From Jesse's Café Américain....
Free Kindle Edition of 'The New Robber Barons' By Janet Tavakoli
19 February 2012
As long as that space is down there, it certainly could work that way. So we shall see. Rarely does a bar that long not get retraced.
Actually I never stated I was looking to buy gold back $40 lower, no doubt ridiculous. I did however mention I planned on being overweight silver for the time being and that I had simply sold gold and was positioning to gain on my silver holdings. To be clear I was stating gold could go to $1680, not that I sold on Saturday and was looking to buy @ $1680, I'm sorry if you thought that is what I meant....edit I said I was going to stay underweight in gold
Excellent move, Nice going!
2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin Original Box & COA
Hmm, my purchase price was $1200 back then (April 09) and tonight Provident's paying $2784. Better return than some bank will give ya.
http://www.providentmetals.com/2009-ultra-high-relief-double-eagle-gold-coin-us-mint-box-and-coa.html
Take out $1739 and you can kiss that pullback goodbye....everyone's waiting for $1682 and it doesn't work that way.
I think it's hilarious for one to sell gold looking for a $40 pullback when the buy-sell spread (take Provident for instance) is $40.
Seems stupid actually.
I don't really see anything funny about it. When you deal with hundreds of ounces at a time, it is really not so "funny" when you can save a buck or 2.....If you are using the bigger online bullion dealers as an example of the spread, you would think it's funny. I don't use them when dealing in larger quantities of metals. Again, I still don't see what is funny about it!
Precious Metals: The Only Alternative
Jeff Nielson
13 February 2012
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/nielson021312.html
No Other Choices
From a personal standpoint it was never my intention to become as heavily focused in the precious metals sector as I am presently (between 80% and 90%). As with many other precious metals bulls I am a big believer in the overall "commodities" story (from a long term perspective). This is based on the obvious big-picture fundamental that much of the global population (the so-called "emerging markets") are still in the early stages of what will prove to be the longest/largest economic growth boom in the history of our species.
At the same time, the collection of corrupt buffoons presently running (ruining) Western economies have betrayed their own peoples and so grossly mismanaged their economies that they have maneuvered themselves into the worst economic catastrophe in the history of our species. And we can "thank" the Banker Oligarchs who have steered these stooges every step of the way along that road to economic suicide. "Zig" one way today and Western economies will be consumed in a hyperinflation conflagration which is literally beyond the comprehension of any of us. "Zag" the other way, and these debt-saturated economic Ponzi-schemes will implode into domino-like debt defaults.
Literally only one investment can protect investors from both of those nightmares: precious metals. While the virtues of gold and silver in shielding people from the ravages of high inflation are generally well understood, conversely very few investors (or commentators) understand that gold and silver are equally necessary/effective in protecting people from the opposite economic Hell.
Commentator after commentator fail miserably in their analysis of gold and silver in any "economic crash" scenario. The mistake they make is in comparing what will be a totally unprecedented event in human history with past economic episodes which bear no similarity to our present circumstances.
Never before in history has the majority of the global economy (according to GDP) all been simultaneously poised to default on its debts. Thus when commentators talk about recessionary conditions or even depressionary conditions (of the past) they are totally missing the boat. They are talking about (mere) "deflation" when what we are facing are (serial) debt-defaults. There is no comparison at all between the two scenarios.
The enormous difference between the two scenarios could not be simpler: in the debt-default Hell looming before us "cash is trash" (implying the same thing for bonds). Our (unbacked) fiat currencies are nothing but the IOU's of the government issuing them. What is the value of an IOU from a bankrupt debtor? Zero.
Similarly, the debt-default scenario looming before most Western economies implies bonds going to zero. How much are Greek bonds worth today? About 30% of what they were worth one week ago (and fading fast). And as I have reminded readers frequently, in fundamental terms the U.S. economy is obviously more insolvent than that of Greece.
Any economic crash scenario also implies a sickening plunge for the broader economy, meaning that most categories of equities can be expected to crash as well, along with most of the commodities - except where severe shortages exist. The question then becomes: as $trillions in various forms of banker-paper plunge to zero, where will the paper-refugees flee with what remains of their wealth? For nearly 5,000 years, the answer to that question has been gold and silver.
That's pretty funny considering the spread between spot and dealer pricing.
I sold some gold and some silver yesterday myself. Looking for $1680 in gold this week and possibly $31-32 for silver. I think it will happen mid week and be short lived and if the 'hunch' is correct, I will gain a nice additional stack of silver. I'm gonna stay underweight gold for the time being as I see greater returns on silver percentage wise....
SILVER RIPE FOR TRADING AGAIN By Richard Rhodes
* Sunday, February 19, 2012
With all the press centering in upon Gold gains recently +10%, Silver has risen by +19% - thereby outperforming the yellow metal by +9%. Silver - the poor man's good; now looks rather ripe for trading once again. This is as it should be in a metals bull market - silver should always outperform gold. And the manner in which the technicals are shaping up in both absolute and relative terms - we should see both gold and silver move to new highs and not return to the lows forged on 12/30/11 at $1567 and $27.88 respectively.
In our opinion, we shall be playing silver form the long side, for the techncials are rather compelling. First, the weekly Silver chart shows a series of continuation patterns or bullish consolidations that have all lead to new highs. And, each one began with the 20-week stock at oversold levels. In fact, the first two times this occurred, silver rallied for 2-years plus and gained in the multiple of 100%s. Next, let's note the current price has held the 110-week moving average. which it has done on a number of occasions, and then rallied rather strongly. We expect this current test amid the bullish consolidation to take silver price upwards of $50/oz or more - a minimum gain of +34%, which is really rather paltry by past rallies, but one that has the potential to go much much higher.
Therefore, we are left to wonder what shall trigger such buying in the metals and silver in particular. Will be be turmoil in the Middle East? The Euro falling apart? Faster-than-expected economic activity around the world? New rounds of QE? They are all good questions, and perhaps an amalgamation would probably be the most likely scenario.
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/
George.
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
Keep an eye on that 163 area though. There's still some uncovered space there.
I would be one of the few.
THE BULLISH MOVE IN GOLD ISN'T OVER By Tom Bowley
* Saturday, February 18, 2012
It takes time and patience for continuation patterns to play out. Many traders grow frustrated, especially after the stealth move higher ends because of the time involved for continuation patterns to form. The current bull market in gold has lasted more than a decade and there are few technical signs of it ending now. First, let's take a look at a 12 year weekly chart to step back and grasp the overall picture:
You can see from the blue circles above that every "stealth" move higher has been followed by a longer than usual consolidation period. And that makes sense. There needs to be a cleansing period where a whole new group of longs participate as weaker hands let go of their positions. The other technical observation is that the current consolidation phase has allowed a VERY stretched MACD to move back down to test its centerline. This means that gold's 12 week EMA essentially equaled its 26 week EMA. A lot of the overbought conditions have been relieved. Another observation is that every time gold has seen its weekly RSI dip beneath 50 and its weekly stochastic fall to 20 or below, that combination has resulted in a very strong buy signal.
Now let's take a look at the current pattern on a daily chart:
There are a couple of different interpretations which would lead to differing methods of accumulation and risk management. Obviously, we have a bullish wedge breakout, but also have the prospects of an inverse head & shoulders pattern that would measure to 2075 in time. Perhaps an inverse right shoulder will form on a back test of the wedge breakout? Either way, this pattern looks bullish and I'd be a buyer of gold.
I've provided a few technical reasons why I believe gold is going higher. Fundamentally, I believe gold will be higher because Fed Chairman Bernanke wants to inflate our way out of the financial crisis and the resulting economic weakness. The next big issue is going to be inflation, I have no doubt. If you've listened to Bernanke, you know the Fed will do EVERYTHING it can to avoid a deflationary environment. They will continue to expand the Fed's balance sheet. QE 3 is coming so get ready. Ultimately, there will be a price to pay and it's going to come in the form of inflation. What do you think is going to happen to gold prices as inflation is sparked? Inflation may stay historically low for the next couple years, but it is NOT going to remain low. I rest my case.
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/
George.
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
Good points made on the "war machine". What really gets my attention is how China and Russia are siding with Iran. And why wouldn't they? I firmly believe that China is prepared to take over the world reserve currency status and when you look at their exports vs. imports, the writing is on the wall! Russia knows this and has no beef with China. The Chinese have been net importers of gold and silver over the past few years when they are typically huge exporters. Then you have Chavez taking delivery of his countries gold, the new breaking story of the "counter-fit" $6 trillion in US Treasuries just seized, which has U.S. Government theft and deception written all over it, and here our Gubmit clowns are worried about a Nuke that doesn't exist, yet? Hmm, smells like a currency war to me and little to do with Iran and the "possibilities" of developing a nuke.....Makes a guy really think hard when watching the precious metals trade. I'm not a conspiracy theorist or a believer in the "end of the world" but I am starting to think the U.S. is trying their damnedest to hold the precious metals in a certain price range! Makes logical sense to me.....
Swift system...he explains it in the first sentence. It's a world wide use of a number assigned to each bank which the banks must have to wire $ to each other. Probably won't mean much because smaller banks can pay a fee to larger banks to use their Swift #. I just used the system yesterday. That's how I know. My guess is a bank in a sympathetic country, uh, like China or Russia will transport the $ for them. This Iran stuff is all BS anyway. Just substitute "Iran" for "Iraq." The war machine is beating the drums. Iran does not have a nuke. They do not have a missile that can reach the US. They know it's suicide to attack Israel much less the US. They would be obliterated without the use of any ground troops. They are already boxed in by US Aircraft carriers. The real battle is not between Iran and the US it's between the US, China and Russia. It's a chess game where the general population is played as a fool.
Me, I'm just enjoying my coffee.
Gold and Silver COT Reports - Futures By Harvey Organ
* Saturday, February 18, 2012
Greece updates/Iran/High amounts of physical silver standing in February/
Let us now head over to see how positions changed with our players with Friday's COT report:
first gold.
Our large speculators:
Those speculators that have been long in gold lightened up a bit on their longs to the tune of 7,288 contracts as the weaker longs succumbed to the wishes of the crooked bankers.
Those speculators that have been short in gold, increased those shorts to the tune of 2,799 contracts.
The commercials;
Those commercials who have been long in gold and close to the physical scene, added 3733 contracts to their long side.
Those commercials who have been perennially short in gold e.(JPMorgan and friends) covered 7933 contracts from their short side. The raid allowed them to cover these contracts.
Our small specs:
Those small specs that have been long in gold pitched a rather large 2519 contracts and these guys were also victims to the criminal collusive action of the bankers.
Those small specs that have been short in gold covered 942 contracts from their short side.
Conclusion: now more bullish for gold as the bankers are covering their short positions and they went net long this reporting week.
Remember that the report is from Tuesday Feb 7 through to the 14th of February. We had interesting days on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
Now for our Silver COT:
Our large specs:
Those large specs that have been long in silver continued by slowly adding another 621 contracts to their long side. (Note the difference in the large specs with silver in contrast to the large gold specs)
Those large specs that have been short in silver,did not like the lay of the land and covered a rather large 1460 contracts from their short side.
Our commercials;
Those commercials who are long in silver covered a very tiny 368 contracts.
Those commercials who have been perennially short in silver and subject to the criminal probe on manipulation reluctantly supplied 2292 contracts
Our small specs:
those small specs that have been long in silver pitched 741 contracts from their long side;
those small specs that have been short in silver covered a rather large 1,320 contracts.
Conclusion: the large specs are taking on the bankers. The large specs will win if they seek the physical from the bankers in the delivery process and remove that metal from all registered comex vaults.
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2012/02/greece-updatesiranhigh-amounts-of.html
George.
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
I don't know what the swift system in Belgium is but this has got to be good for PMs. From an email from Jim Sinclair:
Dear Friends,
Iran is to be dropped out of the Swift system in Belgium. That means Iran could neither send or receive bank money wires.
That would slam Iran's economy.
This is economic war at the highest level of conflict. This could start a greater move of central banks with fears of the West to increase and retrieve their gold positions. It certainly puts cash reserves held by central banks (which are computer entries anyway) into serious question as to security.
This is as serious as it gets in nuclear and economic terms. The only weapon that can be effective against Iran's nuclear industry is Western nuclear deep penetration bunker busters.
Hold tight to your insurance investment positions.
Regards,
Jim
Aurcana: Possible resource increases
Posted by Christopher Wood
at 20:41 Thursday, 16 February 2012
In Aurcana's December 2011 corporate presentation ( http://tiny.cc/evhhk ), the following reserve numbers are reported (43-101 compliant):
La Negra:
Measured & Indicated: 1.248Mt @ 105 Ag g/t (3.4oz/t) for 4.2Moz Ag and 7.5 Moz AgEq
Inferred: 0.262Mt @ 78.6 Ag g/t for 0.7 Moz Ag and 1.4 Moz AgEq
Shafter:
Measured & Indicated 2.795Mt @ 8.6 oz/t (267 g/t) for 24.0Moz Ag
Inferred: 2.167 Mt @ 10.5 oz/t (326 g/t) for 22.8 Moz Ag
For La Negra, running the mill at 1500tpd would exhaust the M&I resource in 832 days; once the 2000tpd expansion it complete (Q1-2012) the resource would be exhausted in 624 days. So finding more resources is critical. The good news is that we know the ore is there; from their Q4-2011 production numbers we know that only 14% of production was from M&I resources and 86% was from "new discoveries or non-compliant resources). If er use these numbers to estimate the amount of resources that could be there, unaccounted for in the 43-101, resources size increases by a factor of 7 (100/14) and the M&I resource number potential jumps to 30Moz Ag and 54Moz AgEq.
But how realistic is this estimate? Well, in the recent Christopher Barker interview Lenic gave up another data point:
"We're expecting a resource update at La Negra by mid-February. We are going to add about 1 million tons, which will be a substantial increase from what we now have, and these will come from the 1950 level ... the first time we have gone so deep into the mine. The haulage level is at the 2000 level. So all of the orebodies -- these 28 orebodies -- are above the haul level; all of them are gravity fed. And all of them are open. So we're down in the 1950 level now, and we have about 1 million tons here, (with more copper than silver).
Meanwhile, at the 2400 level in the Northwest Trend, we have two orebodies that seem to connect; bridging an 800-meter gap. We're already drilling 400 meters into it, and we need to drill the other 400 meters. And if they do connect, we have the potential for about 4 million tons there, and the grades are around 100 to 200 grams per ton of silver."
Lets look at the 1Mt first. Assuming a grade 100 g/t (the weighted average of their current M&I and Inferred resources) we get another 3.2Moz Ag of resources. Now what about AgEq? Well, in their current resource numbers, the AgEq number is roughly double the Ag number. Additionally, Lenic indicates there is more copper than silver in this ore, which seems to support the doubling for AgEq. Thus, we get an AgEq number of 6.4Moz. And as Lenic indicates, we can expect a resource update in mid February (now) that will hopefully validate these estimates.
* 1Mt @ 100g/t: 3.2Moz Ag and 6.4Moz AgEq
Now, what about the 4Mt? Lenic indicates a potential for and additional 4Mt of or grading between 100g/t and 200g/t. He indicates that they think they have two connecting ore bodies, but that they have to prove it by drilling. Drilling is already halfway complete, which would seem to indicate at least a 50% probability of 4Mt of ore. Using the an average grade of 150g/t, how much silver is this?
* 50% of 4Mt @ 150g/t: 9.6 M/oz
* 100% of 4Mt @ 150g/t: 19.3 M/oz
If we again assume a doubling when considering AgEq we get:
* 50% of 4Mt @ 150g/t: 19.3 M/oz
* 100% of 4Mt @ 150g/t: 38.6 M/oz
If the 4Mt resource is there, adding this to the 1Mt resource that is expected in February we have 22.5Moz Ag and 45.0Moz AgEq. This is remarkably close to the numbers we estimated based sources of the ore currently being mined.
If this all comes to fruition, Aurcana will increase at La Negra by 560% for Ag and AgEq by 600%:
* LN Current: 4.9Moz Ag and 8.9Moz AgEq
* LN Projected: 27.4Moz Ag and 53.9Moz AgEq
Factoring in the current cash costs at LN (~10/oz Ag) and the current price of silver ($33), and an 85% recovery, this 22.5Moz Ag resource converts to $440M in cash flow. But, if you think prices of silver are going to rise (which I do) this number goes up too.
Finally, Aurcana is currently engaged in an "aggressive drill program" at Shafter. So expect further resource increases there as well. Estimating these numbers will be more difficult though since we have less data points.
http://investmentrevaluationcatalyst.blogspot.com/2012/02/aurcana-possible-resource-increases.html
Chart of a penny gold mining stock
just wanted to pass on the good word...
1+ billion gold in the ground in Brazil
a .14 cent penny stock
6.5 million trading float
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=19433
SEE CHART
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=72151950
Gold Miners ETF Forms Big Bad Bullish Engulfing By Arthur Hill
* Friday, February 17, 2012
The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) opened weak with a print below 53, but then recovered with a high volume rally and close near 55. Overall, Thursday's long white candlestick engulfed the prior four candlesticks. At the very least, this establishes support with Thursday's low. Follow through would confirm the pattern and argue for a move above the early February high.
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/
George.
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
There are a bunch of these machines in Dubai, the middle eastern oil countries, and in Europe with Germany and England. Banks wouldn't lose out and wall street wouldn't lose money, on the contrary would possibly make more getting behind the machines due to gold being the popular bullion around the world. China is buying more and more of it and they are introducing the machines in China with other companies in the mix producing these machines.
Like you I agree the idea is great. The money is there it is just how they market the machine and concept here in the states and to the "big pockets" investors. They are supposed to be releasing some more news about them working with a big name in the ATM world and with the Wincor Nixdorf International. They are already in the process of the private placement so I guess it is a waiting game now.
What!? lol I would think legos can make anything out of them pretty much why not gold bars?
They have already used the machine as a test at a mall in Boca Raton, FL. It is actually a pretty neat machine, I was able to pass by and check it out on a trip down to Miami, Fl.
OPEN LETTER TO THE CFTC
February 16, 2012
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
3 Lafayette Center
1155 21st St. NW Washington, DC 50581
Re: Flawed Investigations and Breaking The Law
Dear Commissioners:
For over 2 decades a large group of silver investors have been yelling and screaming at the CFTC to stop the rampant downward manipulation of the COMEX silver market. On May 14, 2004 the CFTC released the results of their 1st investigation by Michael Gorham, Director of Market Oversight, saying they have not found any evidence of silver market manipulation.
http://www.cpmgroup.com/free_library1/COUNTER-ARGUMENTS_TO_SILVER_CONSPIRACY_THEORIES/CFTC_Silver_Letter_May_2004.pdf
Dr. Gorham, who once worked at the Federal Reserve Bank, resigned only 3 weeks after releasing this report:
http://www.cftc.gov/opa/press04/opa4935-04.htm
As a truly REMARKABLE twist of fate, or not, Mr. Gorham now serves on the Probable Cause and Business Conduct Committees of the CME who were supposed to be overseeing MF Global before it imploded:
http://www.marketswiki.com/mwiki/Michael_Gorham
Then in May 2008 the CFTC released another report on the same topic again stating again that the silver market was not being manipulated. This time the CFTC decided NOT to put anyone's name on the report:
http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/file/silverfuturesmarketreport0508.pdf
This report piggy backed off the 2004 report in reinforcing the main argument why there was no manipulation in the silver market...
"Staff in 2004 also examined the relationship between NYMEX silver futures prices and cash market silver prices to determine whether NYMEX prices appeared to be unusually or significantly out of line with cash prices."
"NYMEX silver futures prices tend to track closely the price of physical silver...This analysis shows that there is not a downward bias in the NYMEX futures price vis-a-vis the LBMA price, which, as noted, is widely regarded as the benchmark value in the marketplace."In BOTH reports the CFTC cites the "cash prices" as the prices for silver on the London Bullion Market(LBMA). It is absolutely important that the NYMEX (COMEX) prices stay in line with the "cash prices" of silver otherwise it would prove that the futures and options trading was SETTING the price for physical silver which is illegal. The PROBLEM with the CFTC's analysis is that they are comparing the NYMEX prices to a massively flawed proxy for the price of physical silver.
I'd like to direct your attention to the CFTC hearing on the silver market manipulation issue. Jeffery Christian of the CPM Group points out clearly that the LBMA really has NOTHING TO DO WITH THE "PHYSICAL MARKET" IN SILVER.
http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=videos&task=video&userid=330&videoid=43&Itemid=114
As a matter of fact Mr. Christian points out that the physical silver related to LBMA contracts amounts to only 1/100th of the silver market. This is supported (and even vastly understated) by the MASSIVE volumes traded daily and annually on the London Bullion Market in excess of 50B ounces per year (NET!) when annual global mine production is only 550M oz. The TOTAL VOLUME of yearly trades on a gross level is likely 5x this number or 250B oz.
The argument used twice by the CFTC that silver cannot be manipulated because this price matches the "physical price" as determined at the LBMA is patently absurd.
Now we come to the 3rd investigation into the manipulation of silver that began over 3 years ago that still has no resolution. We have supplied a whistle blower (Andrew McGuire), new regulatory authorities (Dodd-Frank Law), an admission by a CFTC Commissioner that manipulation has transpired (Bart Chilton) and a silver price that relentlessly continues to rise without any significant decrease in the concentrated short position held by a small handful of single bank.
WHAT MORE DO YOU NEED?
On January 17, 2010 the CFTC was required BY LAW to implement position limits in the COMEX silver market. This date was not a suggestion by Congress but a hard fact of law. On January 18, 2010 the CFTC was in full violation of this law. I submit that the current CFTC Commissioners, Summers and O'Malia, who have blocked the implementation of position limits at every turn should be removed from their post immediately. The actions of the CFTC have baffled the "free market" and leaves market participants standing dumbfounded with a very simple question...
Under what legal authority does the CFTC have the ability to disobey the laws of the US Congress?Our patience with the CFTC has long gone. We have endured 2 botched silver investigations, one NEVER ENDING silver investigation that should have been a slam dunk and now the blatant violation of Federal Law all the while silver market participants are being ROBBED DAILY BY CRIMINALS ON THE COMEX after making the very sound decision to invest in silver.
If you are unaware of the facts behind silver please review the following article: Melt The Witch
http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/136.cfm
This travesty of justice must end immediately.
Do your job or stand down and let someone more capable take over.
Bix Weir
www.RoadtoRoota.com
VIA EMAIL TO: ggensler@cftc.gov; bchilton@cftc.gov; mwetjen@cftc.gov; somalia@cftc.gov; jsommers@cftc.gov; jriley@cftc.gov; dberkovitz@cftc.gov; hhardman@cftc.gov; rshilts@cftc.gov; vmcgonagle@cftc.gov; pcela@cftc.gov; ssherrod@cftc.gov
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/james_joyce_table.cfm?pid=9794
I wonder how the engineers tested the ATM machine -- with little lead blocks? lol
Haven't they just announced an offering? It's just mathematically impossible to implement all those huge plans without further significant dilution... or having someone with deep pockets behind their back. As I said, I like the idea and went through the company's website and latest SEC documents. If they had a support (JV) from a major bank (like Citi or HSBC, for example) this would look more real. But bankers will never support ATMs that would drive money from their accounts and compete with banks investment products. So, the ATM will be located in malls, hotels, etc. I think one of the big retailers (like Walmart) could be interested... I'm going to watch for now and suspect that the share price will drop on the current stock offering.
IMO.
Hey Eik this is pretty much how it is going to work in their updated machine there are three different transactions you can perform
1. Conventional ATM transactions with their current financial institution.
2. Gold bullion vending transaction using cash or debit/credit cards.
3. PMX Gold account transactions
From those there are fees of course just like a regular ATM machine like Bank of America or Chase. Here is their break down of the whole thing.
http://www.pmxgold.com/gold-atm-network/pmx-gold-atm-network/
Plus a great thing is since they have been incorporated they haven't diluted the stock like most penny stocks where they pay for promotions to hike up their stock price to make it look attractive then to dump it on the shareholders.
PMXO[color=red][/color] The company has not diluted share holders since their incorporation which is a benefit. The float is low, the revenues are going to be brought in by the fees charged using the regular ATM function plus the precious metals such as gold and silver.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=19583
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