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Gold’s Expected Detinue; Fed HIKE Must Ensue?
By: Mark Mead Baillie | March 17, 2024
We start with the Federal Reserve, the Open Market Committee scheduled to deliver its next Policy Statement this coming Wednesday, 20 March (at 18:00 GMT).
Obviously the FOMC shall unanimously vote to do nothing with its Bank’s Funds Rate, the devil then being in the Statement’s details, followed by those then exorcised by the FinMedia from Chair Powell during his presser.
Now as you regular readers know, we’ve herein mused (albeit not predicted) since the beginning of this year that the Fed — rather than cut rates as everyone expects — instead have to further raise rates if for no other reason than the math suggests inflation is running well above the Fed’s infamous, annualized 2% “target”.
Recall two weeks ago our inflation summary for January. ‘Tis below on the left. Since then, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has chimed in for February with both retail inflation (Consumer Price Index) and wholesale inflation (Producer Price Index). Thus we’ve updated that graphic as now shown below on the right, (February’s Personal Consumption Expenditures not due from the Bureau of Economic Analysis until 29 March). Regardless: look at the “Averages” row at the foot of both panels: we’re continuing to go the wrong way, (i.e. inflation is increasing). And yet conventional wisdom is staying the rate reduction course? “C’mon, man!” Again, if in red, the metric is ostensibly “too high” for the Fed:
But nary a day goes by wherein we don’t read about the “timing” of the Fed’s cutting rates.
So query: what about the “timing” of the Fed instead rightly raising rates? Just sayin’ … for after all, math is a marvelous science for detecting the truth. (‘Course, “Math Class” has been long-removed from many a public school curriculum and replaced with “How to Grow a Tree Class”). Still, the insistance for the Fed to cut rates remains a core issue for the FinMedia. Following all this past week’s increasing inflation metrics for February, here are some choice headlines per the parroters:
• Bloomy: “Fed gets more reasons to delay interest cuts” (why not raise?);
• DJNw: “‘Perpetually optimistic’ investors worry Fed won’t cut rates three times this year” (dumb);
• CNBS: “This week provided a reminder that inflation isn’t going away anytime soon” (duh);
• Bloomy: “Fed Seen Sticking With Three 2024 Cuts Despite Higher Inflation” (denial).
At least Dallas FedPrez Lorie “Logical” Logan gets it, her saying in January: “…we shouldn’t take the possibility of another rate increase off the table just yet…” Too bad she is not (as yet) an FOMC Member.
Also — were the Fed to raise rates — are the fallout issues both for equities and political support. As you know ad nauseum, the S&P 500 is ridiculously over-extended, (see the historical case in last week’s missive for a material “correction” of some 16%-to-18% within these next three months). The last thing the Fed wishes to foster is a rate-hike-elicited stock market collapse, especially in a Presidential election year. As the U.S. Senate in May 2022 extended FedChair Powell’s term through May 2026, ’tis favourable for him not to see a power shift therein should higher rates cream equities. On verra…
The bottom line is: if the Fed truly desires annualized inflation not exceed 2%, they need tighten rates, and in turn, tighten belts of America.
As entitled for “Gold’s Expected Detinue” (which for you WestPalmBeachers down there means “a person or thing detained”), certainly so was Gold’s recent advance. For the week just past, Gold’s net change was -1.2% (-27 points) in settling yesterday (Friday) at 2159. Why “expected?” Recall from last week’s piece this now updated graphic of Gold vis-à-vis its smooth valuation line as derived from the relative movement of the five primary BEGOS Markets (Bond / Euro / Gold /Oil / S&P). Oh to be sure, per the Gold Scoreboard, price (2159) is vastly undervalued given its currency debasement level (3717); but more momentarily per the website’s Market Value graphic, price at present is nearly 100 points “too high” given what near-term typically ensues per the red encircled bits as displayed from one year ago-to-date:
‘Course, across the same time frame by Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends, hardly does it get any better than this. And yet with respect to that just displayed for Gold being some 100 points above its BEGOS Market Value, our weekly graphic’s dashed linear regression trend line is similarly about 100 points below price, (that courtesy of the “Means Reversion Dept.”) Here ’tis:
Nonetheless more broadly — indeed by the day since 22 August 2011 (when Gold achieved an All-Time Closing High at 1900) — the upward tilt of price looks nice. This next display retains several of Gold’s more notorious levels of the past, along with this year’s 2375 forecast (green line) as rather ripe for the taking:
But taken for a ride of late — indeed one quite steeply down — is the Economic Barometer. That combined with increasing inflation maintains the reality of stagflation as detailed in our prior two missives. In fact, the StateSide economy did get a net bump for this past week, albeit the increasing CPI and PPI headline levels aided and abetted the Baro given “the rising tide of inflation lifts all boats” … until of course stagflation digs in deeply: “It now costs how much for that?” Not pretty:
As for the Casino 500, (red line in the Econ Baro chart), its “live” price/earnings ratio is now 45.3x (basically double its inceptive reading a dozen years ago) and the “textbook” measure (a concoction of John Bollinger’s Bands along with the classic measures of Relative Strength and Stochastics) is currently “overbought” through the past 40 consecutive trading days, (historically never sustainable).
Fortunately, both Gold and Silver — especially the latter — remain cheap relative to currency debasement. For Gold to match today’s debasement valuation, price need rise from 2159 to 3717 (i.e. +72%). And with the century-to-date average of the Gold/Silver ratio at 68.1x, priced to that per Gold’s 3717 valuation puts Silver from today’s 25.41 to 54.58 (i.e. +115%) … just in case you’re scoring at home.
Drilling down to the near-term view, here next we’ve the daily bars and baby blue dots of trend consistency from three months ago-to-date for Gold at left and for Silver at right:
“Both do look over-extended, mmb…“
Squire, they’re clearly stretched to the upside, however great bull markets (or the resumption thereof) do breakout as such. ‘Course, market participation with a buy-side bias is foundational for the bull to run, and credit due both Gold and Silver, their contact trading volume for the past two weeks having been above average.
Indeed to further focus on the past two weeks, here we’ve the precious metals’ 10-day Market Profiles for Gold (below left) and for Silver (below right), their respective trading support and resistance levels as labeled. Of note, whilst Gold’s volume is toward the higher prices, that for Silver is around mid-Profile. But the aforementioned Gold/Silver ratio is now 85.0x, down from 89.1x a week ago. So Silver is getting a well-overdue bid, price having just closed above 25.00 for three consecutive days, an event not having occurred since last 29 November through 01 December:
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Jack Chan: Gold Price Exclusive Update
By: Jack Chan | March 16, 2024
Our proprietary cycle indicator is UP.
To public readers of our updates, our cycle indicator is one of the most effective timing tool for traders and investors. It is not perfect, because periodically the market can be more volatile and can result in short term whipsaws. But overall, the cycle indicator provides us with a clear direction how we should be speculating.
Investors
Accumulate positions during an up cycle and hold for the long term.
Traders
Enter the market at cycle bottoms and exit at cycle tops for short term profits.
GLD is on short term buy signal.
GDX is on short term buy signal.
XGD.to is on short term buy signal.
GDXJ is on short term buy signal.
Analysis
Current data suggests a pullback/consolidation is imminent.
Current data supports an overall higher dollar.
Our ratio is on a new buy signal.
Trend is DOWN for USD.
Trend is DOWN for gold stocks.
Trend is UP for gold.
The underperfomance reached the lowest point in 2015, and we are now testing that low.
Summary
Gold sector cycle is up.
Trend is up for gold and down gold stocks, and down for USD.
$$$ We are partially invested for the current up cycle.
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Gold Forecast: Gold Cycles Were Correct
By: Jim Curry | March 17, 2024
As mentioned in my last article back in February, Gold was in a correction phase - but was into bottoming territory, as represented by a key cycle that we noted at that time. That cycle ended up troughing with the February 14th tag of 1996.40, and with that should be headed higher into April - before another key top attempts to form.
Gold's 72-day Cycle
From the comments made some of my past articles, the next low of significance was expected to come from the most dominant cycle in the Gold market, our 72-day wave - which is shown again on the chart below:
This 72-day cycle component was projected to bottom into the late-January to mid- February region - as per the path suggested by our 72-day detrend indicator. Its actual bottom came in with the February 14th tag of 1996.40 (April, 2024 contract). This action was confirmed by taking out a key upside price reversal figure for Gold.
From my 2/18/24 article: "in terms of price, we have a key 'reversal point' for Gold, a number - when broken to the upside - will confirm the next upward phase of this 72-day wave to be back in force, with more precise details noted in our Gold Wave Trader report."
With the above said and noted, our key upside reversal level for Gold was noted well in advance in our Gold Wave Trader market report. That 'reversal point' was the 2085.60 figure (April, 2024 contract).
With the above said and noted, once our reversal figure of 2085.60 was taken out to the upside, that was the trigger for a sharp move higher for Gold - one which was projected to be some 10-14% off the bottom.
In terms of price, that targeted a test of the 2195 (minimum) to 2270 level for the metal - with the lower-end of this range having already been met, with the spike higher into March 8th.
Having said the above, in terms of time, the average rally phases with this 72-day cycle have lasted around 39 trading days or more before peaking, which suggests its current upward phase will push higher into the early-April timeframe (or later) before forming yet another top with this wave. In terms of price, I see the potential for a push up to the 2230-2260 region before the upward phase of this wave is complete.
Gold's Short-Term View
For the very short-term, however, the metal has been in a smaller-degree correction phase, coming from the combination of 10 and 20-day cycles. The smallest of these waves - the 10-day cycle - is shown on our next chart:
In terms of price, a more recent analysis called for a minimum drop back to the 10-day moving average for Gold - following my rule that a cycle will revert back to a moving average of the same length, better than 85% of the time.
However, due to the position of a larger 20-day wave (not shown), there is some potential for a drop back to the lower 20-day moving average, though - in bigger uptrends - the market will often hold around the shorter-term 10-day average.
Regardless of the above, due to the position of our larger 72-day cycle, the probabilities should favor the most recent correction to end up as countertrend, with first support around the 10-day moving average, then the lower 20-day average, if attempted.
If the above assessment is correct, the next upward phase of the short-term waves should take the metal back above the 2203.00 swing top into what looks to be the early-April timeframe. On or after that, the metal will then be set for the next decline of significance, expected to come from the aforementioned 72-day cycle.
Gold's Bigger Picture
From the comments made in past articles, the overall assumption was that the most recent correction with our 72-day wave would end up as countertrend, due to the position of our larger 310-day cycle - shown below:
Our 310-day cycle last bottomed back in October of last year (where it was projected), and with that has been seen as pushing higher into late-Spring to early-Summer of this year. In terms of price, I have mentioned in past months the potential for Gold to reach up to the 2270-2300 level, simply based upon the average rallies with this cycle.
With the above said and noted, another 72-day top made on or after early-April would seem favored to give way to a countertrend correction on the next downward phase of this wave. If correct, a final push back to higher highs for the bigger swing should ideally play out into what now looks to be the Summer of this year, before peaking our larger 310-day component.
For the mid-term picture, once our next 310-day cycle top does form, a larger percentage decline would be expected to play out in the months to follow - a decline similar to the one seen from the May, 2023 peak into October, 2023 bottom. In terms of time, this decline is likely to play out into (tentatively) the Spring of 2025, with more precise details of how this decline will unfold, posted in our Gold Wave Trader report.
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Gold Market Update - Another Strong Upleg Looks Imminent As Bull Flag Completes...
By: Clive Maund | March 16, 2024
After almost 4 years of going nowhere gold has this month broken out into what looks set to be by far its biggest bullmarket to date, and it would be surprising if it wasn’t given the fundamental outlook which is for currency and societal collapse, implosion of the debt and derivatives markets and war and general chaos and mayhem as the prelude to an intended global government involving the imposition of the CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) system as part of a total control grid.
Fortunately for investors the situation is now very clear with respect to gold and gold investments and easy and simple to elucidate.
Our very long-term chart going all the way back to the start of the year 2000 shines a giant searchlight on gold’s situation, quickly revealing that beyond the great 2000’s bullmarket, the price has marked out a fine example of a gigantic Cup & Handle base which is of such a magnitude that it can support a massive bullmarket, which as mentioned above is likely to be of unprecedented proportions. The reason for this update now is that it has just this month, at last, broken out of the top of this completed base pattern, so for investors in the sector there is still almost everything to go for.
Now we will zoom in to examine the latter part of this gigantic base pattern using a 5-year chart, which shows the strong rally in 2019 and 2020 to form the right side of the Cup and then the lengthy Handle trading range that followed which continued right up to the end of last month. This chart makes clear the importance of the resistance level marking the horizontal upper boundary of the Handle trading range, as the price got turned back from the $2050 - $2100 level on four occasions but the last time this happened, early in December, the bullishly aligned moving averages were at hand, not far beneath to provide support and limit the reaction that followed. The Accumulation line fell hard on this retreat, however, giving a false signal that temporarily fooled us (me) and this may somehow have been staged to throw people off before the big move, or it may simply be that it did have negative implications that were quickly eclipsed by subsequent developments. In any event, gold made the big breakout on good volume this month which we will now look at in more detail on the 6-month chart.
On the 6-month chart we can see to advantage gold’s powerful and decisive breakout on persistent strong volume and how it took it sharply higher to become super-critically overbought on its RSI indicator which is why it has stopped to “get its breath back” this past week. The resistance at $2100 has now deciisively fallen and with momentum positive and moving averages in strongly bullish alignment gold is now a bullmarket and for the reasons stated above it is likely to be one for the record books.
We will now proceed to look at gold again, this time on a shorter-term 3-month chart, the reason being to examine the price / volume action this month in an effort to determine what is going to happen next. The pattern that has formed as the price has reacted back slightly does not look like a top – price / volume action strongly suggests that it is a bull Flag / Pennant that will be followed by another strong upleg, similar in magnitude to the one that led into it and perhaps even stronger as gold is now in “open country” and moving away from the gravitational pull of the giant trading range. Volume has eased back in a most satisfactory manner during the past week with the MACD histogram (bars) also easing back considerably, suggesting that another big upleg is not just likely to happen soon, but imminent.
If gold looks like this on its 3-month chart, then what about gold stocks? Gold’s decisive breakout led to a powerful advance by gold stocks, as represented by the GDX ETF, whose 3-month chart shows a dynamic first impulse wave out of a Double Bottom, that was accompanied by high volume and gaps – this is very bullish. This waveform looks very like the first impulse wave in August of 1982 in the broad stockmarket that marked the start of the great 1980’s bullmarket which followed a decade of going nowhere (the 1970’s). On that occasion the market only reacted back a little – a lot less than many traders had expected and hoped for – before blasting higher again in a 2nd powerful impulse wave, and it never looked back. The lesson here is clear – if you are angling for a reaction back before buying the sector or adding to positions you are likely to be disappointed. The most it is likely to react back is to the minor support level near to $29.20 and it may not react back any more at all. From this position it could blast higher again almost without warning.
Adding fuel to the fire in a positive sense for gold (and silver) stocks is the fact that they are woefully undervalued relative to gold itself, as our chart for GDX going back to 2005 makes apparent. Gold is higher now than its 2011 peak, yet GDX, representing PM stocks, is about half the price it was in 2011, so it is clear that PM stocks have a lot of catching up to do and as gold continues to ascend they will attract growing speculative interest, eventually displaying the positive leverage to the gold price that they are famed for.
Lastly we can see how horribly undervalued Precious Metals stocks are relative to gold itself on our chart for GDX divided by gold going back to 2001. Only on two other occasions during the life of this chart have they been so undervalued – once at the nadir of the sector depression late in 2015 and early in 2016, and again at the depths of the Covid crash in the Spring of 2020 which was a freak event when the entire world was in the grip of an orchestrated mass psychosis. So, given that gold has entered a bullmarket that is likely to be of awesome magnitude, it should be clear that the upside potential of the better stocks in this sector is truly massive and that, despite their gains of the past couple of weeks they are still at exceedingly good prices compared to where they are headed.
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Get ready, Gold and Silver run is gonna be HUUUUUUGA
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 16, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 12, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 201.6k, up 10.3k.
Since it hit $2,203/ounce – a record – last Friday, gold has come under slight pressure, closing this week down 1.1 percent to $2,162 – first down week in four. Gold bugs, however, showed up for most of this week at/near $2,150s. Last December, the metal ticked $2,152, which was a new high back then, and reversed lower. Before that in October, it bottomed at $1,824. It has come a long way from that low.
In the sessions ahead, gold is likely to breach the $2,150s support. In an ideal scenario for the bulls, it then heads toward $2,080s for a successful breakout retest, laying the foundation for the next leg higher.
Since August 2020, when $2,080s was hit the first time, rally attempts stopped at that level several more times, including March 2022 ($2,079), May last year ($2,085) and a few more times this year.
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Gold: Inside Week Sets Stage for Potential Bullish Continuation
By: Bruce Powers | March 15, 2024
• Gold's inside week suggests consolidation, setting the stage for a potential bullish breakout if this week's high is exceeded.
Gold is set to close the week with an inside week. This week’s trading range is contained within the price range of last week. It sets up a potential bullish continuation trigger on the weekly time frame if this week’s high of 2,189 is exceeded to the upside. An inside week shows price consolidating on that the weekly time frame.
Weekly Consolidation Shows Strength Remaining
Notice that this week’s price range occurred near the high of last week’s range. That shows strength remaining as demand was strong enough to keep gold from sliding further. It reflects a minimum impact from selling pressure this week as the pullback held support around the 8-Day MA (blue). A decisive breakout above this week’s high would be the first bullish signal. Following that, further signs of strength would be needed for indications that the continuation of the rally is sustainable. Of course, the recent high of 2,195 would be next on the agenda. Ideally, the weekly breakout is strong enough to quickly push through that high.
Higher Price Targets
Assuming that is the case, gold would then be heading toward a price range marked Fibonacci confluence of three extended measurements. That range is from 2,235 to 2,247. It includes the 161.8% extension of the retracement from the decline off the May 2023 swing high. Also, the 161.8% extension of the decline following the new record high in December is included.
Bearish Signal Likely Leads to Deeper Pullback
Nonetheless, today’s price action shows a minor weakening sign. It looks like gold may close below the 8-Day MA for the first time since the advance accelerated on February 29. This could be a clue that eventually leads to further weakening. However, a bearish signal would be needed and that doesn’t happen until gold drops below this week’s low is 2,151. The more significant support level looks to be down near the 50% retracement at 2,088. It is matched by the December 25 swing high, which gives it more weight than if the indicator was by itself. Higher levels to watch are marked on the charts.
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Decisive Long-Term Breakout for Gold
By: Carl Swenlin | March 15, 2024
This month, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) broke out to new, all-time highs. That was a significant long-term move, which we will discuss when we get to the monthly chart.
Of more immediate interest is the fact that sentiment is still bearish, which bodes well for a continued advance. We gauge sentiment based upon whether closed-end fund Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) is selling at a premium (bullish sentiment) or discount (bearish sentiment). Currently, PHYS is selling at a discount to NAV.
The weekly chart gives a better perspective of the significance of the breakout, which was decisive. The overhead resistance has held GLD back for more than three years, and has now become support.
But the monthly chart shows that it has been a much longer wait than three years. Gold made all-time highs back in 2011, following which it declined nearly fifty percent. It finally recovered to new, all-time highs in 2020, but it has been stalled until this month. Practically speaking, gold investors have been waiting about 13 years for this encouraging move. The positive side is that gold has established a solid high-level base at around 2,000 to provide future support. Also note how bullish sentiment got (a premium of about +14%) during the parabolic advance on the left side of the chart.
Investing in gold presents some difficulties that must be considered. (Disclaimer: This is information, not a recommendation.) If you buy physical gold, you have to have a safe place to store it. A safe deposit box can be accessed/frozen by the government, and an adequate safe is expensive, difficult to move, and entails some vulnerability. Some ETFs, like GLD, do not actually own physical gold. An alternative is iShares Gold Trust (IAU), which is a closed-end fund that owns physical gold. Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) is similar to IAU, but it is a foreign entity based in Canada. Consider the implications of all options available.
Conclusion: Gold's recent breakout was a long time coming and appears to have positive long-term implications. Also, the long period of consolidation has created an impressive base of long-term support.
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Gold Markets Continue to Pressure Resistance
By: Christopher Lewis | March 15, 2024
• Gold markets rallied during the course of the week, only to give up those gains and form a slightly negative candlestick. However, the range is rather tight in it does suggest that perhaps we may have some consolidation ahead of us.
Gold Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
The gold weekly chart has shown a little bit of a negative candlestick for the week, but really at this point in time, I think you still have a situation where you have to look at this through the prism of whether or not we can find any real value here. I do think that eventually we will pull back. That pullback more likely than not will continue to attract attention. And I think buyers and or value hunters will definitely be interested in this market. In that environment, I think we could see more money flood in, especially if we get anywhere near the $2,075 level.
That being said, if we can take out the highs here, then it’s very possible that we could be more or less on our way to the 2500 level via the 2200 level between here and there. I don’t like the idea of chasing gold, so I would be just as happy to buy it after several weeks of sideways action. We’ll just have to wait and see how it plays out. Pay attention to interest rates that of course has a major influence on gold, but also geopolitical concerns out there have really been driving gold higher as well.
We recently broke above that crucial $2075 level and that has now become your floor. As long as we stay above there, the uptrend is firmly ensconced in this market and there’s absolutely no reason to be selling gold in this environment as not only do we have all of the macroeconomic factors, but central banks have also been net buyers of gold bullion.
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MAPLE GOLD MINES
MGM, MGMLF
Recently spiked from 5-7c in CAD
Partnered with Agnico and measuring
3-4 million ozs thus far. ✔️
Gold Support Levels and Potential Upside Continuation
By: Bruce Powers | March 14, 2024
• Gold remains above key support at the 8-Day moving average, but a decline below 2,151 could lead to further selling pressure.
Gold continues to hold above support around the 8-Day MA with a with a three-day low of 2,151. That is the bottom of the price range and key near-term support. The 8-Day line was breached briefly today but it looks like the close will be at or above the line. Therefore, a decline below 2,151 could lead to further selling.
Deeper Retracement Still Possible
If a deeper retracement begins in gold there are several price zones to keep an eye on for possible support. The first being the prior record high at 2,135, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2,115 and the 50% retracement at 2,090. The lower price zone is enhanced by the 20-Day MA, currently at 2,088, and the swing high from late December around 2,088. Further down is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2,065, which is confirmed by the swing high from February 1.
Bullish Continuation Scenario
Alternatively, since gold has been holding relatively strong since last week’s new record high of 2,195, an upside continuation remains a possibility before a deeper correction. A decisive breakout above today’s high of 2,177 would provide a bullish signal, with further confirmation provided on a rally above yesterday’s high of 2,180. This doesn’t mean it will keep rising though. It should be watched carefully for further signs confirming the bullish posture.
Nevertheless, the next higher targets comprise two ranges from Fibonacci extensions of prior swings. The first zone is from 2,235 to 2,246 and the second is from 2,277 to 2,298. The top of the second price zone also completes the initial target for a large rising ABCD pattern. That is where there is symmetry in price between the CD leg and the AB leg of the pattern. Once symmetry occurs the chance for a reversal increases.
Multi-Year Breakout in Play
Since there is only one more trading day left to the week it is likely that gold will end with a high inside week. In other words, the full trading range for the week is near the highs of last week. This shows strong demand remaining for gold. Keep in mind that gold closed at a new record high last week as it rose out of a multi-year basing pattern. That likely sets the stage for a multi-month or multi-year advance.
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What happens if the carry trade goes the other way?
Wouldn’t gold benefit?
Gold - I do have various targets as you may have seen. Here I show the percentage gains on two targets...
By: Sahara | March 14, 2024
• $GOLD $GLD - I do have various targets as you may have seen.
Here I show the percentage gains on two targets...
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Gold Strong Demand Amidst Mild Retrace
By: Bruce Powers | March 13, 2024
• Gold's retracement from a record high remains mild, supported by strong demand. Potential for further ascent exists, with key targets at 2,235 to 2,247.
Gold’s retracement from last week’s 2,195 record high has been mild so far with support seen around the 8-Day MA the past couple of days. Although last week’s high hit several key target areas that could lead to a deeper retracement, demand has stayed strong. Today’s low bounced off the 8-Day line almost exactly, putting gold in a position to finish in the green with an inside day.
Demand Stays Strong
Since demand has stayed strong following last week’s peak, there remains a chance that gold will continue its ascent before a more significant retracement. A rally above today’s high of 2,180 will provide the next sign of strength. However, that should be followed by a breakout above yesterday’s high of 2,184 as it will further confirm the bullish signal. A continuation of the bull trend above 2,185 then becomes more likely.
Long-Term Breakout Confirmed
Since gold has broken out to a new record high and it was confirmed by a weekly close above the prior high of 2,135, there is a good chance that the next higher target zone could be reached. In addition, bullish signals were triggered on the monthly chart for gold. The breakout is from a multi-year basing pattern and the breakout has only just begun. The next higher target zone is from 2,235 to 2,247 and is derived from Fibonacci ratio analysis. Two 161.8% extended targets make up that range. The next higher target range beyond 2,447 is from 2,277 to 2,298.
Drop Below 2,156 Likely Leads to Deeper Retracement
Nevertheless, a deeper retracement becomes more likely on a drop below today’s low of 2,156 and confirmed on a drop below yesterday’s low of 2,151. The 8-Day MA is currently at 2,155. Previous resistance at the prior high of 2,135 may then be tested as support. Further down is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2,115. However, the more significant support area looks to be around 2,088. That level includes the 50% retracement, and it was a resistance peak in late-December.
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Gold Bearish Reversal Triggers Retracement from Recent Peak
By: Bruce Powers | March 12, 2024
Gold experiences bearish reversal, triggered by breakdown from inside day following the 2,195 top. Potential retracement ahead based on key technical patterns.
A bearish reversal triggered in gold today with a breakdown from an inside day. This follows the 2,195-peak hit on Friday. There are several reasons why last week’s high might be followed by a retracement. It was a key target zone identified previously from measured moves, a symmetrical triangle pattern (blue boundary lines), and the completion of a rising ABCD pattern. Combined, the methods identified a strong target around 2,189 to 2,194.
Measured Move Completes
The 2,195-swing high completed a 10.6% rally from the February 14 swing low (C). It matches the two measured moves seen earlier in the uptrend structure beginning from October 2023 swing low. The first advance off that low was 11% and the second was 10.5%. This reflects symmetry in price between the three rallies. In addition, the time relationship was close. The first two advances took place over 15 days and the most recent topped after 17 days.
Symmetrical Triangle Target Hit
Moreover, the measuring objective derived from the symmetrical triangle on the chart identified 2,189 as a key new high target. Simply, the price height of the pattern (first rising purple arrow) is added to the breakout area to arrive at a minimum potential target.
ABCD Pattern Target Reached
Finally, a rising ABCD pattern shows symmetry between the AB leg of the rally and the CD leg of the pattern at 2,179. Not a perfect match with the above noted range, but still close. Regardless, it does provide further evidence for a price range where resistance is likely to be encountered.
Retracement Targets
Today’s bearish reversal breached a three-day low of 2,154 and puts gold on track to possibly close below that price level. Given the swing relationships noted above it seems likely to see a deeper retracement beyond the minimum before gold is ready to resume its ascent. The prior record high is at 2,035 and it marks the first zone where support might be seen. A little lower is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2,115. The next lower price level at 2,088 looks interesting as it is highlighted by two indicators. It is marked by the 50% retracement and was also a key peak resistance level in late-December (B).
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+++ Interest rates will rise+++
The stock markets are currently in bubble mode. Since inflation remains stubbornly high in order to prevent a second violent wave of inflation, it would not be a bad idea to raise interest rates again next week by 25 basis points. Due to the extremely overbought situation on the market, a violent market reaction to such an even would be bearable. That would clean up the markets in a healthy way, which in my opinion has long been necessary.
Gold has closed higher for the last 8 days in a row before the March 12 drop of more than 1% (not yet reflected in the chart)
By: Tom McClellan | March 12, 2024
• The indicator tracks the percentage of up closes over the past 9 days, smoothed with a 3MA. Gold has closed higher for the last 8 days in a row before the March 12 drop of more than 1% (not yet reflected in the chart). The message is that the rubber band is really stretched.
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Gold Market Update - Major Breakout Marks Start Of Rercord Breaking Bullmarket...
By: Clive Maund | March 11, 2024
It’s a very good time to review gold’s major breakout because, in addition to breaking above the key $2100 level that we had for some considerable time noted was key, it has broken above its intraday highs of early December at just above $2150. Gold is now on it’s way and nothing will stop it because it is simply rising to compensate for the exponentially growing ocean of dollars created by the Fed.
Some fear that gold will drop because the dollar index could continue to rise for a while due to countries and other dollar debtors struggling to redeem their dollar denominated debts by purchasing dollars, but with regard to this the crucial point to grasp is that new dollars are being created at such a fantastic rate by the Fed in order to backstop the failing Treasury market and to fund Israel and the Ukraine etc that gold has no choice but to go up to compensate. We are therefore likely to find ourselves in a situation for a while where the dollar and gold ascend in tandem. Eventually the debt market will blow to smithereens at which point gold and silver will go vertical and skyrocket.
On the 6-month chart for gold in dollars below you will observe that gold has now broken clear above the key resistance at $2100 which stopped it in its tracks early in December, and in addition to that it has in recent days pushed on above the residual resistance at its early December intraday highs at $2152.30 which confirms that the breakout is valid. You may recall that we were wary for a while because of the horrible deterioration of the Accumulation line in January, but that has now largely been made good by its strong recovery over the past couple of weeks mostly due to the persistent strong upside volume on this breakout drive. Although now short-term overbought because of its steep ascent this month which could result in its consolidating for a while or reacting back somewhat, any such reaction is unlikely to be more than trivial due to the picture now being so positive for gold both fundamentally and technically and to the extent that it occurs will be viewed as an opportunity to buy various PM stocks or add to positions.
We can clearly see why the $2100 level was so important for gold on its 5-year chart, for this level had turned the price back on several occasions since the mid-2020 peak. We can also see on this chart that the price and moving averages are in most favorable alignment and that it can get a lot more overbought on its MACD indicator than it currently is. Also shown at the top of this chart is GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF) which makes plain how PM stocks have grossly underperformed gold itself , especially over the past year. This is very bullish, because when investors are excessively pessimistic towards the sector they favor gold over stocks, reasoning that it is less risky. We can therefore expect this divergence to narrow and with gold going up, it means gold (and silver) stocks should go up more.
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$DOLLARS Fiats - Eventual Financial Death Spiral Now Imminent – John Rubino
By Greg Hunter On March 9, 2024 In Market Analysis 83 Comments
https://rumble.com/v4i4tv5-eventual-financial-death-spiral-now-imminent-john-rubino.html
$GOLD Mining Update - GOLD WEEKLY - Unless something dramatically changes, we have a weekly breakout in gold.
A 50% rally succeeded a similar breakout in 2019.
GOLD DAILY- Gold is finally breaking above $2100, and I believe we are in the initial stages of a powerful multi-month rally.
This cycle should press to the upside into late April or early May.
RESTART GREAT GOLD MINE - ABCOURT MINES | Red Cloud's Pre-PDAC 2024 -
Red Cloud TV
Precious Metals & Mining Update - GOLD WEEKLY - Unless something dramatically changes, we have a weekly breakout in gold.
A 50% rally succeeded a similar breakout in 2019.
GOLD DAILY- Gold is finally breaking above $2100, and I believe we are in the initial stages of a powerful multi-month rally.
This cycle should press to the upside into late April or early May.
RESTART GREAT GOLD MINE - ABCOURT MINES | Red Cloud's Pre-PDAC 2024 -
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Gold Flies to Fresh All-Time Highs
By: Mark J Lundeen | March 10, 2024
With The Gold Update now in its 16th calendar year and price having just made a series of marginal fresh All-Time Highs these past three trading days (2161 Wednesday, 2172 Thursday, 2203 Friday), on the surface we deem this as a somewhat exciting event, Gold having then settled out the past week yesterday at 2186.
However: from a more studied purview, ’tis admittedly adequate to couch it all as rather “ho-hum” given how vastly undervalued Gold remains vis-à-vis the above Scoreboard. Therein, the current market level of 2186 is -41% below the Dollar debasement valuation of 3716. Or for you WestPalmBeachers down there, Gold still has a very long way to go up — and moreover — that ’twill so do given price historically always catches up to prior high levels of valuation. This is starkly shown in the above right-hand panel, wherein clearly Gold whilst now nicely getting some up-curl remains well behind the money supply green line’s continuing to unfurl. And to be sure: this time ’round such catch-up process is seemingly taking forever.
Still, we take heart in Gold’s having thus far traveled this year some 38% of the route from last year’s settle (2072) toward this year’s forecast high (2375). And from the “Wishful Thinking Dept.”, extrapolating the current year-to-date pace would place Gold at our 2375 forecast high come 21 June, followed by 2764 for year-end. ‘Course, hardly are we holding our breath for it to all go that exquisitely perfect, but ’tis nonetheless a tasty technical tidbit.
Further from the “Keeping One’s Feet on the Ground Dept.” whilst such an extensive BEGOS Market (Bond / Euro / Gold /Oil / S&P) movement (be it up or down) naturally pulls price away from our proprietary “smooth valuation line”, as this next graphic shows, reversion to said smooth line eventually recurs over time. And per the lower panel oscillator (price less valuation), at present, Gold (2186) is +128 points above that line (2058): obviously the prior two such extremes (red vertical lines) from a year ago-to-date in turn both lead to at least some material near-term price retrenchment. That cited, Gold’s recent peaks across the past three months in the 2090-2070 area appear supportive, (or more optimistically: gone are the days of the 1900s). Here’s the graphic:
Next let’s turn to Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from one year ago-to-date. This past week’s price upthrust comprehensively hoovered away the remnants of the ever so short-lived red-dotted parabolic Short trend, flipping it to Long in fine style per the new rightmost blue dot. Therein, we can’t help but notice the past two parabolic Short trends could not manage more than three weeks of red-dotted duration. Gold’s +5.5% low-to-high intra-week gain was the best in nearly a year, since that ending 17 March 2023, and the +4.5% net weekly gain the best since that ending this past 13 October. Think the buyers are in charge? “YES!!!” indeed:
Meanwhile in charging along with the stagflation theme nauseatingly herein detailed a week ago, the Economic Barometer’s set of 13 incoming metrics produced — as surmised — just five period-over-period improvements, notably with respect to job creation, albeit the rate of February’s Unemployment (despite the increase in Payrolls) jumped two pips from 3.7% to 3.9%. Still, there were some sore stinkers in the past week’s bunch: January’s Factory Orders sank at a -3.6% pace, the month’s Trade Deficit was the worst since that of last April, and credit cards rocketed into orbit as January’s Consumer Credit level leapt from $0.9B in December to $19.5B. “When ya don’t gots da dough, get out da plastic!” Afterall, there was almost no growth in February’s Hourly Earnings. And as for the Econ Baro itself, straight down continued as … well … straight down, even as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in his Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony remained non-committal toward any near-term change in his Bank’s Funds Rate, (for which as you regular readers know the case can be made to actually increase it). “Oh, say it ain’t so!” Here’s the Baro:
“But the S&P 500 keeps sailing right along, eh mmb?“
So ‘twould appear, Squire, albeit the mighty Index did just (barely) record a down week (-0.3%), only its third such demise of not just the past the ten weeks year-to-date, but indeed since that ending 23 October … which for those of you scoring at home means the Casino 500 has spun 16 up weeks of the last 19. How rare are such streaks? On a mutually-exclusive basis, before this run, it had only occurred on two other occasions across the past 25 calendar years (during 2018 and 2011, prior to which was during 1989). And following the 2018 stint, the S&P then “corrected” as much as -18.3% within three months, whilst after the 2011 stint, the Index similarly dumped -16.9%. Also, this Casino 500 is now characterized as 35 consecutive trading days “textbook overbought”. So “Get Ready”–[The Temptations, ’66].
Tempting, too, is the track of Gold, certainly so since mid-February from the rightmost dominant low (1996) in the following left-hand panel of price’s daily bars from three months ago-to-date. In the right-hand panel we’ve Gold’s 10-day Market Profile with its bevy of volume-dominant support levels as labeled:
Silver’s setup is quite similar with her daily bars (below left) and Profile (below right). Again to expound upon that which we regulary harp, Silver — given the Gold/Silver ratio now at 89.1x — remains CHEAP! The ratio’s century-to-average is 68.1x: plug that into your HP 12C to see where Silver “ought” be(!)
To finish, with 15 metrics due next week for the Econ Baro including the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ reads on the pace of February inflation at both the retail and wholesale levels, we can’t resist going with this closing graphic as — after all — ’tis The Gold Update No. 747:
What fuels your financial jet? We trust ’tis Gold!
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Jack Chan: Gold Price Exclusive Update
By: Jack Chan | March 9, 2024
Our proprietary cycle indicator is now UP.
To public readers of our updates, our cycle indicator is one of the most effective timing tool for traders and investors. It is not perfect, because periodically the market can be more volatile and can result in short term whipsaws. But overall, the cycle indicator provides us with a clear direction how we should be speculating.
Investors
Accumulate positions during an up cycle and hold for the long term.
Traders
Enter the market at cycle bottoms and exit at cycle tops for short term profits.
GLD is on short term buy signal.
GDX is on short term buy signal.
XGD.to is on short term buy signal.
GDXJ is on short term buy signal.
Analysis
Current data suggests overall higher gold prices.
Current data supports an overall higher dollar.
Our ratio is on a new buy signal.
Trend is DOWN for USD.
Trend is DOWN for gold stocks.
Trend is UP for gold.
The underperfomance reached the lowest point in 2015, and we are now testing that low.
Summary
Gold sector cycle is up.
Trend is up for gold and down gold stocks, and down for USD.
$$$ We closed out 2023 with a nice profit. This marks the 5th straight profitable year for us.
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$Gold is headed higher into the next 30 week cycle high in early July. I guess it could go as high as the 2.618 extension of the May-October decline at 2500 by July. Keep in mind there's going to be 1 more weekly cycle low between now and July so it's not going to be straight up.
By: CyclesFan | March 9, 2024
• $Gold is headed higher into the next 30 week cycle high in early July. I guess it could go as high as the 2.618 extension of the May-October decline at 2500 by July. Keep in mind there's going to be 1 more weekly cycle low between now and July so it's not going to be straight up.
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Friday's Commitment of Traders (COT) Report from the CFTC had an interesting point about gold...
By: Tom McClellan | March 9, 2024
• Friday's Commitment of Traders (COT) Report from the CFTC had an interesting point about gold. The big money "commercial" traders responded to the rally in gold this week by posting the biggest jump in years in their collective net short position. This marks this week's pop as at least a short term price top.
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Gold $GLD - Extreme Bull. The targets are a combination of Swings, Patterns & Measured Moves, along with Fibonacci Extensions
By: Sahara | March 9, 2024
• $GOLD $GLD - Extreme Bull.
The targets are a combination of Swings, Patterns & Measured Moves, along with Fibonacci Extensions.
Want to see this pop of the 'Cup' hold. If so then I'll be monitoring those Channel-Lanes for resistance and spprts.
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 9, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 5, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 191.3k, up 49.7k.
Gold bugs were able to build on last week’s action, when the metal closed at $2,096 – just above major resistance at $2,080s. This level has acted as a ceiling ever since August 2020 when gold reached $2,089 and retreated. After that, rally attempts stopped in March 2022 ($2,079), May last year ($2,085) and several times this year, not to mention last December when the metal hit a new high of $2,152.
This week, the December high was surpassed, with the yellow metal reaching $2,203 on Friday, closing at $2,186/ounce.
Gold has broken out of a long base. This is occurring at a time when equities, after massive rallies since last October’s lows, are showing signs of exhaustion.
The only thing is that gold has rallied for seven sessions in a row, with a somewhat parabolic look to it. A little backing and filling will be healthy.
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Gold Record Highs, but Is a Pullback Coming?
By: Bruce Powers | March 8, 2024
• Gold marks eighth consecutive day of price increases, showing strong upward momentum but signaling a possible temporary top and pullback.
Today, Friday, marks the eighth consecutive day in a row that the price of gold has progressed higher. On each of those days there has been a daily close above the high of the prior day. That is one sign of strong upward momentum. The uptrend has been clear, and it continued today with gold reaching a high of 2,195 before backing off. However, trends retrace and given initial signs of resistance today, at least a temporary top may have been reached leading to a pullback.
Key Target Reached
The 2,195-price zone (1,189 – 2,194) was highlighted in prior articles recently as a primary initial target for gold. It was identified from the two impulse rallies starting from the early-October swing low (A). A 10.5% advance of the rally from the recent swing low from mid-February completed at 2,194. In addition, an initial target derived from measuring the symmetrical triangle marked on the chart was at 2,189. Finally, you can see almost an exact hit with the 1.414% Fibonacci extension of the retracement from the decline following the May 4, 2023, swing high.
Long-Term Bullish Strength Signaled
Strength of the long-term breakout will confirm this week as gold is on track to close well above the prior record high of 2,135 from December. The breakout is very bullish as it occurred from a multi-year basing period for gold. Moreover, there have been three prior new record high breakouts starting from 2022 where the new high week closed above the prior record high. That will be the case this week and highlights strong upward momentum.
Risk of Retracement Increases
Nevertheless, as alluded to above, gold has reached a target and is extended. A correction of some degree could begin soon. The next sign of weakness that could lead to a deeper retracement occurs on a drop below today’s low of 2,154. Subsequently, a test of support near the prior high of 2,135 would not be surprising. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is at 2,115, which is very close to the 8-Day MA at 2,111. A more significant potential support level looks to be down around 2,088. Regardless, gold’s bullish breakout is not a secret and will likely continue to support improving demand in the previous metal.
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REALMONEY GOLD & SILVER Indicators Show Gold is About to Run Up and Gold Stocks Will Go Even Higher: Michael Oliver
Natural Resource Stocks
Interesting multi factor study on GOLD. Good example of using 'observations' that resonate in a structured study
By: Nautilus Research | March 8, 2024
• #gold $gld Interesting multi factor study on GOLD. Good example of using 'observations' that resonate in a structured study.
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Gold Price Forecast: Symmetry Points to Higher Prices
By: Bruce Powers | March 7, 2024
• Gold's rally shows symmetry with past moves, hinting at higher prices. Current 9.1% increase nears a 10.5% target, with 2,194 as a significant resistance zone potentially.
Enthusiasm for gold shows no signs of stopping just yet. On Thursday the precious metal reached a new trend high of 2,165. And it is on track to close relatively strong, in the top third of the day’s range and above yesterday’s high of 2,152. Certainly, it looks overbought with price extended. In the very short-term it may be. Nevertheless, there were two sharp rallies earlier in the trend, coming off the October 6 swing low, that provide evidence for further upside in the near-term.
Two Earlier Impulse Rallies
The two earlier rallies referenced each completed in 15 days with the first seeing an 11% advance and the second a 10.5% increase in price. This shows symmetry between the two swings in both price and time. Given symmetry earlier in the trend, we may yet see it again in the current advance. Today is the 16th day of the rally when starting from the February 14 swing low. So, there may only be a match in time if today’s high is a top. However, the price relationship points to higher prices.
Symmetry Occurs at 2,194 Target Zone
Gold would need to rally to 2,194 price range to reach a 10.5% advance from the February low. Each of the prior impulse moves had a short two-day pullback before moving higher. We could surely see similar behavior in the current impulse rally on the way to 2,194. That target is given greater significance because the measuring objective or target derived from the symmetrical triangle shown on the chart is close at 1,189. Two methods pointing to a similar price zone.
Up as Much as 9.1% to Date
The current rally has seen the price of gold rise by as much as 9.1%. Not too far away from the 10.5% performance target. Given the clear rise in demand and high momentum seen in this rally, if a short-term stall comes, it may be used quickly by traders to enter or add to positions thereby pushing prices still higher. The 2,194-target zone is a pivot where resistance may be seen, or another breakout and confirmation of strength occurs on a decisive rally above 2,194.
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ARIS MINING REPORTS 2023 RESULTS WITH GUIDANCE ACHIEVED, NET EARNINGS OF $11.4M, ADJUSTED EARNINGS OF $52.2M ($0.38/SHARE),
ADJUSTED EBITDA OF $159M
March 06, 2024
Download(opens in new window)
VANCOUVER, BC, March 6, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -
Aris Mining Corporation (Aris Mining or the Company) (TSX: ARIS) (NYSE-A: ARMN) announces financial and operating results for the three and twelve months
ended December 31, 2023 (Q4 2023 and FY 2023, respectively). All amounts are in US dollars unless otherwise indicated.
https://www.aris-mining.com/news/news-details/2024/ARIS-MINING-REPORTS-2023-RESULTS-WITH-GUIDANCE-ACHIEVED-NET-EARNINGS-OF-11.4M-ADJUSTED-EARNINGS-OF-52.2M-0.38SHARE-ADJUSTED-EBITDA-OF-159M/default.aspx
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173916527
Gold vs M2 Money Supply:
Gold Massively Undervalued vs US Money Supply
$NEWS - Is Gold Setting Up for a Huge, Once in a Generation, Rally?
By Chris Vermeulen
Is there a generational opportunity coming to get into gold?
Gold $GLD - Hghr Targets...
By: Sahara | March 7, 2024
• $GOLD $GLD - Hghr Targets...
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Velocity of money used to be very significant, and was important to Debt/GDP ratio. it crashed but nothing became of it so people stopped looking at it. guess what, its everything it used to be, printing of money for past 10 years has skewed everything, including real money value. its gonna show bigtime soon.
Gold vs M2 Money Supply:
Gold Massively Undervalued vs US Money Supply
$NEWS - Is Gold Setting Up for a Huge, Once in a Generation, Rally?
By Chris Vermeulen
Is there a generational opportunity coming to get into gold?
12 years in the making. $GLD 🥇
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) March 3, 2024
Weekly newsletter out tomorrow, sign up for free.
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Gold New Record High, Eyes Further Upside
By: Bruce Powers | March 6, 2024
• Gold's breakout from multi-year basing phase is supported by monthly breakouts and symmetrical triangle breakout signals. Potential for further upside, aiming for 2,189.
Gold managed to continue its ascent on Wednesday as it reached a new record high of 2,152, pulling back slightly. Significantly, it is on track to close above the previous record high of 2,135 for the first time. However, this is not the first-time gold has closed above the prior record high. Each of the prior attempts since August 2020 were followed by notable corrections. This time seems different, but we need to see additional clues showing increasing demand. How the retracement occurs, once it happens, should be telling.
Support Levels if Pullback Begins
Each of several price zones noted on the way up is where to watch for potential support on the way down if a retracement comes before new trend highs. Near-term support is at today’s low of 2,124. A decline below that low is the sign of weakness that could lead to a deeper pullback. The prior record high at 2,135, followed by the prior swing high at 2,088 (B) are the first areas to watch for signs of support. Subsequently, there is the 8-Day MA at 2,076 followed by the 2,066, which was previously resistance over several days.
Breakout of Multi-Year Base
Gold is in the process of attempting to breakout of a multi-year basing period. It is supported by signs in the monthly chart, which show a consolidation phase for the past several months. On the weekly and daily charts, the consolidation pattern took the form of a symmetrical triangle. The breakout of the pattern has been clear and decisive. As of today, the price of gold has risen above the top of the pattern, further confirming strength. It also can be seen as improving the potential for gold to reach the minimum target projected from the pattern at 2,189. Whether it does so before or after a retracement remains to be seen.
Measured Moves Confirm Triangle Target
Previous measured moves provide further evidence for the 2,189-target zone being reached. Gold had two relatively sharp advances starting from the October 2023 swing low. A degree of symmetry shows between the two moves. The first advance was 11% and the second 10.5%. Gold will match a 10.5% rally in the current advance once it reaches 1,194, just five points from the triangle target.
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Gold Surge to 2,142 and Beyond
By: Bruce Powers | March 5, 2024
• Gold's rapid ascent to a new record high of 2,142 reflects strong demand, with further bullish indications as it surpasses key targets and sets new closing price records
It did not take very long for gold to hit a new record high of 2,142 once demand kicked in. A four-week high was reached last Thursday before three sharp daily rallies occurred. Including today, they can be seen as three wide range green candles on the chart. Moreover, the first higher target discussed previously was reached at 2,131 today. Not only was the previous record high of 2,035 close to that target, but also a rising ABCD pattern extended by the 127.2% Fibonacci ratio completed there as well.
Watching for Daily Close Above 2,035
Gold continues to trade below both the 2,131 target and the prior record high at 2,135. Therefore, it could easily close below those price levels. However, if it can close above 2,131 it will be showing greater strength than closing lower. And a close above 2,135 of course is a more bullish indication than a close below 2,135.
Higher Target is 2,189
In the short-term, gold may be extended and due for a retracement or consolidation of a day or a few, if not longer. Once that phase is done, whichever form it takes, gold should be ready to proceed towards the first major higher target zone around 2,189 to 2,194. The current sharp advance in gold began following a breakout of a large symmetrical triangle pattern. An initial target can be calculated from the pattern, and it points to 2,189. The purple arrows mark the related measurements.
Measured Moves Confirm Target
Further, two previous measured moves are highlighted in blue on the chart. They show impulse rallies coming up off the October swing low. The first rally is 11% and the second 10.5%. If the lower 10.5% advance occurs in the current advance, gold would be hitting approximately 2,094. The measure starts from the most recent swing low at 1,984 (C).
Highest Daily Closing Price Historically
Yesterday’s closing price of 2,114 was the highest daily closing price ever for gold, and today will likely end with a new record closing price. Gold has been setting up for large move into new record highs ever since reaching a high of 1,921 in 2,011. A multi-year basing pattern followed in the shape of a cup with handle. If this week’s advance is sustained and the price of gold further strengthens, gold will be rising out of a new floor in price.
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more like once in a lifetime ever rally. never has there been a worse generation of investors and a president/admin that has so messed up everything, and allowed everyone that greases his palm to do as they please. No president has ever tried to destroy this country, and lied so much about everything especially the economy while racking up debt faster and larger than anyone ever before. the next run in gold will be a Mars mission right after a Moon shot.
Is Gold Setting Up for a Huge, Once in a Generation, Rally?
By Chris Vermeulen
Is there a generational opportunity coming to get into gold?
12 years in the making. $GLD 🥇
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) March 3, 2024
Weekly newsletter out tomorrow, sign up for free.
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Nothing like pertinent charts being included to make the economic picture relative to PM's clear as a bell.
Evidence and Insights About Gold's Long-Term Uptrend
https://www.bullionstar.us/blogs/bullionstar/gold-uptrend/
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 2, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 141.6k, up 1.4k.
Gold bugs are back at it again. In fact, with a close of $2,096/ounce this week, it has managed to reclaim $2,080s, which has acted as a ceiling ever since August 2020 when it reached $2,089 and retreated. After that, rally attempts stopped at that price point in March 2022 ($2,079), May last year ($2,085) and several times this year, not to mention last December when the metal hit a new high of $2,152.
This is as good an opportunity as it gets to build on this week’s action. Needless to say, a breakout would be massive. Encouragingly for the bulls, the metal has been making higher lows since November 2022 when it bottomed at $1,618.
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If gold does what i believe it WILL do. Miners will explode next year multiples of where they are now. Miners do best on the trailing half of a Major gold and silver bull run, which is happening this year. Silver first, Gold next, Miners last. Gold easily will be 7x to 10x from its lows in 2016. with reserves vanishing and no one noticing, the central banks are setting up for gold to cover all the debt they cannot pay off. it will be once in a lifetime for metals, but im afraid almost every other market but housing will drop up to 50%. some crypto will emulate gold for a bit, but its almost saturated now. the only reason it going up is someone, maybe even a Sovreign, is grabbing it since last year. the capitulation is close, but as things will turn out BTC and its close buddies will hold their own, there are way too many who will not sell, which will stabilize that market more than other. go figure, no real value but its eternally loved.
Stock Screener: Ep. 389: Leverage With Gold Miners Vs. Bankruptcy Risk
Albert S
Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum Points to Potential Record Highs
By: Bruce Powers | March 1, 2024
• Gold's breakout from a consolidation pattern suggests bullish momentum, with targets near record highs around 2,135 and a potential surge towards 3,000.
Gold sees bullish follow through after yesterday’s breakout of a large symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. So far, it is acting in a way that is very supportive of a bullish outlook. The precious metal took off and reached a high of 2,088 today before encountering resistance. That high completes the next target for gold, which was at 2,088 from the December 28 swing high (B). Gold is on track to close strong, in the top 25% of the day’s trading range.
Strong Bullish Momentum Indicated
This week’s bullish breakout may be the beginning of a run that sees gold reach new record highs. The last record high was set in December at 2,135. It is off to a good start with this week’s price action. Clearly, upward momentum has improved as represented by today’s wide range green candle and likely strong close. Gold broke out of a bullish hammer candlestick bottom two weeks ago on the weekly chart, providing a solid beginning to this rally.
Next Higher Target is $3,000
The next higher price target above today’s high is up around 2,100. At that point a rising ABCD pattern completes. Symmetry between the two swings in the pattern, the AB leg, and the CD leg, will match at that point. Nevertheless, that is the first target from the pattern. Given the likelihood of still higher prices there is a good chance that the target will be exceeded. The 127.2% ABCD pattern target will then be at 2,138, awfully close to the prior record high.
New High Target Zone: 2,189 to 2,192
Since yesterday’s breakout, however, an eventual target derived from the symmetrical triangle becomes more likely. That target is around 2,189 and marked on the chart. What is interesting is what happens when we look at the two sharp rallies that occurred before the three-month consolidation pattern. Each of the rallies saw an advance of over 10%.
The first was 11% and the second 10.5%. If the current rally matches a 10.5% advance, which would make sense given the previous rallies, gold would be hitting approximately 2,192. That is a very close match to the triangle target. When two methods identify a similar target, that target zone takes on greater potential significance.
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