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Here's an article you definitely want to read. The article gives a great overview on the yield curve and what it portends.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-foghorn-is-blowing-but-few-heed-its-warning
Check out what the summary of the article says at the end. Bear markets don't end until recessions start is what is said, but why
is that the case? IMO it's because the Fed won't start lowering rates again until it's very clear we're in recession or until the recession
brings on enough pain for them to pivot and begin the QE and money printing again.
Goldman thinks the Fed won't cut rates in 2023. IMO the Fed may not WANT to cut rates, but will be forced to do so.
Why may they be forced to begin cutting rates in 2023?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-dont-expect-fed-rate-cuts-in-2023-110606507.html
IMO what no one seems to want to take into account is can all the over-leveraged countries of the world
handle interest rates at they levels. I don't think they can. Over the course of the next 6-12 months what could break that forces
the Banksters to reverse course. Well, we don't know, but with recessions coming almost everywhere the pain
will increase and we know the politicians at some point will be screaming for them to make money easy again.
They will make another crisis happen to have an excuse to cut rates, so they can save the world again.
What else can they do? Nothing, that's why this is coming.
The money printing and gov. deficits are just getting started. The current gold/silver prices have already taken those past moves into account. What the PM prices don't reflect yet is the future printing and deficits to BE CREATED. That will come when the Banksters have to reverse course and begin dropping rates again. That signals the resumption of money printing and debt creation to the market.
PM prices move on where real interest rates are and even with the tightening, they've done in interest rates gold is at $1800. As interest rates fall and become even more negative PM's should move higher. I'm hoping that dynamic takes place sometime in 2023.
There has been so much money printing and huge government deficits that a run up in the precious metals is long overdue.
The Fed is beyond pumping the brakes with these rates increases - they are slamming on the brakes - a reversal should come in 2023. Otherwise, the real estate and stock markets will be in jeopardy of a crash.
Time will tell.
There has been so much money printing and huge government deficits that a run up in the precious metals is long overdue.
The Fed is beyond pumping the brakes with these rates increases - they are slamming on the brakes - a reversal should come in 2023. Otherwise, the real estate and stock markets will be in jeopardy of a crash.
Time will tell.
Keith is the ONLY reason I own shares in FMG. Keith is also an excellent company builder, but unfortunately he has no control over when the mining sector will turn higher and IMO that's the biggest issue that all mining-related companies face at this time. Mining stock shares won't move higher until we see PM's move higher, it's that simple.
I've said many times here before that we need to see the gold price break through those old highs convincingly to get the technical traders and institutional money to move into the sector. When that happens we can start getting excited that those $3K/gold and $50/silver targets may be within reach.
IMO that process begins when the Banksters HAVE to pivot from raising rates and are most likely forced to reduce rates soon after they pivot. I think we'll see that happen in 2023, so I'm in agreement that at some point in the 2923 PM prices most likely break the old highs and head to new all time highs. I can't say for sure if we can hit the target numbers you're looking for in 2023, but hope springs eternal. We'll see.
I’m a big fan of Keith. Own shares in First Majestic as well. Actually they just sold a property to a Junior silver company that I have owned for 30 years. That stock has a trading halt for the last week so not sure how the stock will respond when it trades again. How’s that for patience? FM will hold 40% of shares after the deal closes.
Keith is always on the move.
Implanting - I have been betting on $3,000 gold and $50 silver for the last 2 years. Been wrong so far - hopefully 2023 will make me and many others right!
Yes, no doubt these investments are riskier than most, but I think what FMG has going for it that very few other developer mining entities have are a backer like Keith Neumeyer. IMO to some degree that makes this investment unique.
The problem with selling our shares in PC or Treasury is that they're not worth that much. I believe that's the reason they chose to sell the Goldlund royalty. The point in accumulating those cheap shares was to let them grow in value over the years, not to dump them for a little of nothing.
I see our largest asset as being the PC royalty, but that brings up the same question. What's it worth and what could they sell it for in this shitty envrionment? That would be a great question for Dan to answer.
Thanks Sea Blue and Implanting for the updates.
Evident that progress is being made on many fronts. Always risky with these juniors and their constant requirements for more cash. Sea Blue and I had a small silver producer with great upside potential taken out by Hecla at a huge discount a few months back. Always a risk when you need cash and your share price is at a rock bottom level.
I assume that our 20% interest in PC and Treasury shares will be on the table as well. Either those or a royalty deal on Springpole or Duparquet production?
Let’s see what 2023 brings. Happy holidays to all!
Family Roots, I'm afraid Cameron is most likely on the back burner at the moment. They may have some drilling scheduled there, but there were no questions about it from the webinar.
They may not have the money to drill at Cameron this year. Dan had promised to do some drilling there, but that was before the Duparquet acquistion.
Exploration money is going to be very tightly controlled going forward and it would be my guess that Duparquet and the properties around Springpole will be what they're most focused on drilling.
I asked a lot of questions that got answered and other people asked some very good questions. IMO Dan spends too much time talking about each question. I believe most of the questions he answered could have been answered in about 1/3 less time. He tends to drag out his answers and of course that takes more of the allotted time given.
I am thankful he did this end of year webinar to bring everyone up to speed. I asked about how much cash we would have after getting the Sprott money for the Goldlund royalties. He said $13 or $14M after all is said and done. I'm thinking that depending on how much money they plan spending for exploration this year that most likely we'll have to sell something else before year end 2023. The biggest thing we have to sell would be the Pickle Crow royalty, but I hope they choose to hold onto that if possible. Problem is the other royalty assets aren't probably going to bring a lot and there may not even be anyone interested in buying them now.
Regarding the Duparquet starter pit question I was hoping he would be able to put a timeline on when it could happen and unfortunately he didn't. The way he talked doing a starter pit is something they would have to look into doing, more researching to be done, so he gave no timeline. He brought it up, IMO he should have had more specifics on what he was talking about. I thought when he brought up the starter pit subject that maybe it could be a revenue source for us when we need the money. Sooner rather than later.
IMO acquiring Duparquet has put FMG in a more tenuous cash position. That's clear, but I think with what Duparquet has added to our portfolio it had to be done. Management continues to juggle a lot of balls, but it should pay off in the long run. I asked Dan about how any talks or negotiations were going on currently and he said yes, there always are, but I don't see anything being finalized before Springpole has it's permitting. He didn't say it, but it was implied.
Did you remember hearing him say that with Springpole and Duparquet FMG has two of the top 15 largest gold properties in Canada? Throw in all our other side holdings and FMG would seem to be an attractive target for someone.
Hey Family Roots,
I did not hear anything about Cameron, but I also was not able to listen to the entire Q & A session. A lot of time was spent talking about Duparquet (which seems to be the better opportunity in terms of past drilling and timeline when compared with Cameron).
Hope you have been well!
Hi - Hope all is well by everyone. Curious if Dan had anything to say about drilling at Cameron? Would be great to see them develop a third 5 million ounce plus property.
I plan to pick up some more shares in January. Rode one of Keith’s recommendation (Snowline) from $.50 to $2.75. Going to take some profits after 12/31 and belly back up to the bar with FMG. Hope they can make a run like Snowline in 2023.
Caught about the first 40 minutes until I was pulled away. Dan did sound upbeat. I am glad you got your question in about the Duparquet pit. I was wondering about that myself and Dan provided a logical answer about it. I really like when he started talking about how a lot of the prior activity across the property did not go below 500 feet. THAT was interesting. I believe he said that before and we discussed it here. I put another order in today. Hopefully it fills tomorrow.
I listened to the company webinar this afternoon. Dan seemed very upbeat about what's going on in 2023 with the Company.
He spent most of the webinar time answering questions, which was good.
I'm hopeful that if gold can break out the miners will move higher on it's tailwind. I'm doubtful anything else would do it.
I wasn't really expecting to read this. Goldman Sucks endorsing gold over Bitcoin.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-12-12/Goldman-Sachs-gold-to-beat-Bitcoin-long-term.html
I watched this new Jim Rickards interview and he touched on some of the things we were talking about in this thread. I agree with most everything he's saying.
He talks about the dual systems of payment between the BRICS countries and their followers and the U.S. and their followers. Stuff about payment systems and all. He makes multiple points about what the future holds and the increased gold buying going on with central banks and various countries. Worth the watch.
Dan's end of year company review webinar is today. Starts at 2:00 EST.
He'll be taking questions.
I thought the article I posted did a fantastic job explaining why a higher move in silver next year is very probable. Histroy tells us that a significant move higher in silver will also benefit a move higher in gold. Both will benefit, but this may be the time silver outperforms gold.
I think the bigger impact for $50 silver on FF is going to be what it does for the buying power of First Majestic. This is going to give Keith and FM shareholders huge buying power moving forward. The FM share price is currently $8.86, imagine where it will go with $50 silver? It could triple or quadruple from where it is now IMO. Where will the share price go if as Keith advocates at some point a triple digit silver price? FM will literally be swimming in money.
The dollar is giong to top out probably in Q1 or Q2 of next year. That's going to fuel higher PM prices moving forward. IMO we may see one more move lower in PM prices before that happens.
Wow, it would be great if silver it the targets mentioned. The mining sector would go ballistic. First Majestic would make out like bandits with their Springpole silver stream....but I would not care because it would guarantee FF a fair price in either a JV for Springpole or in an outright sale of the entire company. At a minimum it could fund them through the rest of Springpole and Duparquet.
A very interesting article giving some gold/silver price predictions.
https://investinghaven.com/forecasts/silver-price-forecast-2023/
No, I hadn't seen the PR this morning on them selling the Goldlund royalties to Sprott. I'm not surprised they did it, but I thought they may have gotten more for it. Someone smarter than me will know how good or bad the deal may have been. We had to raise money to keep the Company funded, so this was the route they went, it's probably better than more share dilution IMO.
I agree with your point about Saylor. He should be facing a ton of lawsuits when/if his Company goes belly up if his Bitcoin bet falls flat. More importantly I think Bitcoin broadly will get hurt because of his staunch support of it.
Any independent board of directors would launch Saylor for essentially gamblilng so much of the company's future on bitcoin. I can't believe shareholders are not filing lawsuits against him and the board over his crypto bets.
On another note, you probably saw this already but in case you did not:
https://www.firstmininggold.com/news/releases/first-mining-announces-sale-of-non-core-goldlund-nsr-royalty
Yes, very shady indeed. Even the Company doing the half-ass audit, if you want to even call it that, won't certify their books.
The CEO of Binance said one of the big signs for finding the scam artists in this space is to see who is moving their Bitcoin into a private holding area and then that's exactly what THEY did. LOL. You can't make this shit up.
I wonder how much lower Bitcoin has to go to shake that Michael Saylor out? He's holding a lot of Bitcoin on margin at the $21K price. He has to be on shaky ground too. When he falls IMO that will really hurt Bitcoin because he's been such a backer of it.
Wow, that was huge! That won't even reveal who their parent company is? Sounds....pretty shady. I wonder what they are hiding?
Looks like we may be having another crypto disaster on our hands. Check out this Mish article on Binance. LOL
https://mishtalk.com/economics/binances-alleged-crypto-audit-failed-not-even-its-auditor-would-vouch-for-it
I think we're going to most likely see a two-system arrangement until eventually everyone moves away from the dollar because it will become obvious to everyone the dollar and the U.S. are not calling the shots anymore. Faith in both is headed south and at some point, that's going to be very clear. We can see it accelerating now with allegiances changing.
When the U.S. began "weaponizing" the dollar and abusing those powers the rest of the world took offense to it. The U.S. made it work since WWII because they were the ONLY real super power, financially and militarily. Not so anymore, especially if we find out China has a lot more gold than is expected they have.
In reality if they move to a system based on a country's commodity wealth that makes more sense to me. The fiat dollar was never equitable anyway. The rest of the world were under our control monetarily and there was not a damn thing they could do about it. We held them hostage with our reserve currency status.
I think we'll see a two tier system come into play until everyone moves to the other side of the boat and anyone holding dollars figures out it's the dinosaur fiat to be holding. That also may be the time we see the Great Reset show up. I don't think we're talking about a long time coming either. Much may depend on what happens in the near term with Taiwan.
Thanks for the article and Gammon video. What's your perspective on when the currency switch could happen? I know China has the CIPS payment system - a rival to SWIFT, but do you think CIPS is ready for the big leagues?
I just heard them talking about this on Maria B's show this morning, so I did a search.
Xi is lobbying to MBS for China to begin buying their oil with the Yuan. IMO it's a done deal, we just don't have a set date yet.
So, that means the petrodollar is dead and the dollar is on it's way out as the reserve currency.
When all these changes come to pass we're going to see a much weaker dollar and a much stronger gold price in dollars. The Smart Money is figuring this out now.
The handwriting is on the wall and the only Idiots that don't know it are the dwindling "west" countries. Everyone else is moving to
back the new Top Dog. The Saudi's are going to come on board too.
https://www.reuters.com/world/saudi-arabia-gathers-chinas-xi-with-arab-leaders-new-era-ties-2022-12-09/
This may be the biggest reason for the coming "shit hitting the fan" moment. George Gammon explains it very well.
I guess Felix Zulauf is making the rounds this past week, but I saw this interview with him and listened. He makes some points in this video, especially about the dollar he doesn't talk about in the first video I posted.
I'm posting a link to a fantastic interview from a fellow that IMO knows what he's talking about. This is a much watch.
The Gentleman being interviewed is Felix Zulauf and he doesn't give many interviews to the public. What he says
in this interview is very close to the way I see the situation unfolding. Listen to what he says closely.
Q1 of 2023 will be the market low and the dollar high. That will be caused by some crisis event that makes the Banksters pivot. He thinks the crisis could start out of China.
The only mention of gold and gold miners is toward the end of the video when he says Q1 will be the time to buy them.
I just saw this updated video from George Gammon about what Poznar is saying could happen with the SPR. I'm still not convinced from what Gammon is saying that they could pull something like this off without getting caught doing it. I suppose they could tell a big lie about the whole thing, but I'm not sure that's even feasible. Watch the video and see what you think.
Honestly, if George Gammons explained what Pozner was saying correctly about them buying all that oil from India AFTER India bought it from Russia, I find that theory to be pretty flimsy. The Biden Admin. couldn't possibly be that stupid, could they? That would essentially
put U.S. credibility at zero with the rest of the world.
Anybody with half a brain could figure out where the oil is really coming from. India is getting most of their oil from Russia now, so how could the U.S. buy anything from India and it not throw up a huge red flag? I think it would. How two-faced would it look if the U.S. was caught back-door buying Russian oil to replenish their reserves. LOL
I may be wrong, but even I don't think the Idiots running the Show in the White House are stupid enough to do that. Or are they?
The one thing I do agree with Pozner on is that Russia wants gold for payment instead of fiat dollars. We'll see how it all plays out, but $3400/$3600 gold would be rocket fuel for the mining sector.
Why would the US openly say they are going to try to replenish the stragetic petroleum reserve at $67/barrel? I mean, who would announce this ahead of time instead of just quietly accumulating on the open market through anonymous intermediaries?
I hope Poznar's gold price comment comes true. $3,600 would do FF a lot of good.
Xi is visiting his buddy MBS now in SA. They have a lot to discuss IMO. First on the list is Saudi dumping the petro dollar for the new BRICS currency to take out the dollar. I'm sure they have many other topics to touch on too.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/xi-arrives-saudi-arabia-mbs-red-carpet-treatment-milestone-3-day-summit
No doubt an alliance between China and S.A. will be a game-changing event going forward and to your question regarding a higher gold price I saw this today and found it very interesting. There was an article on ZH about this George Gammon video, but it was only for the paying customers eyes. Listen to what George is commenting about what Pozsar is saying might happen.
What did you think of the talk of a .75 hike instead of .5?
With all the uncertainty out there, I could easily see gold going to $2500 or $3000? In fact, I'm surprised it has not gone there yet. But the real fireworks will begin if the Saudis dump the USD for something else. I'm curious to what, if anything, comes out of the meeting between the Saudi and Chinese scheduled for the end of this year.
Anybody see this article? It contains some predictions that we could see in 2023.
Many of the predictions, if they come true, could help push gold to $3000. I certainly hope they're right.
No talk about what the miners would do, but I think we should have lift-off in the mining sector if gold has that sort of move higher.
Very exciting indeed.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-at-3-000-after-a-war-torn-and-inflation-racked-year-here-are-some-outrageous-predictions-worth-pondering-11670327544?mod=home-page
The severely inverted yield curve is the biggest warning sign a recession is coming. It's always right.
This article speaks to that and portends the recession hitting next year.
This is why I think we've not seen a bottom yet in the PM market and the dollar hasn't yet hit it's peak for this cycle.
We're most likely going to see the market's roll over into next year and the Banksters be forced to cease the rate hikes
if not begin lowering rates at some point in 2023. Time will tell, but I think it could begin to get ugly from here.
https://confoundedinterest.net/2022/12/06/us-treasury-yield-curve-inverts-to-82-basis-points-worst-since-1981-as-fed-tightens-policy-112-straight-days-of-inversion/
Exactly, Judy Shelton makes too much sense and has a clear knowledge of what's actually going on in the economy to EVER get elected to the Fed. She's someone who advocates tight money, not helicopter money, so her approval was doomed from the start, and yes, she's also a gold advocate. That was Joe Kernan from CNBC interviewing her and he's about the only person on that channel that's not a complete fucking Idiot.
I spoke with Paul Morris yesterday and picked his brain for information I don't think he was really in the loop on. He just got back Friday from Europe where they had him courting potential shareholders. He told me people in countries like Germany are very eager and more than willing to invest in companies, like ours, that are in the gold industry. The people over there don't trust fiat and are doing all they can to get away from it. IMO that will be the case in this country in the not-too-distant future. Paul told me FM was selling physical silver over there to people and it sold out immediately. They couldn't supply the demand.
I questioned him on the interview I posted regarding the Barrick CEO saying there were no mining assets in Canada right now that would interest them. His response to that was it could change or that there may be other interested parties that would step up. I also had questions about Duparquet that because he's been out of the loop for a while, he really couldn't answer for me. He was very bullish about what's going on with Duparquet and said that will be a big opportunity for the company moving forward.
I received an email from the Company last week about an end of year Q&A seesion Dan will be doing on Dec. 13th. That's a week from this coming Tuesday. You can bet I'll have some questions ready to go for that.
Paul's an excellent IR person, but I think because they have him mult-tasking in other areas he's not able to be on top of all the specifics that Dan has a better knowledge of.
That makes sense.
Awesome discussion for just a 5-minute clip! I think she is certainly right about the Fed in this regard - they certainly have assumed too big of a role in relation to market performance. I also agree with her statement right at the very end when discussing "herding the supply side" (interesting phrase I had not heard before) - that people are being given free money to spend which increases demand - putting pressure on prices - while at the same time they are not contributing to output.
It was surprising to see the CNBC host appearing to agree. Usually they skew any legit analysis in favor of continued market performance. It did not seem like he was necessarily doing that here.
Geez....comparing her to Janet Felon is laughable. It is a shame they did not approve her nomination. She would have been a great addition. Plus, she believes in real money - gold. No, we can't have a competent person who believes in gold on the board!
Excellent Judy Shelton interview in which she explains how the Banksters don't really have a clue about how what they're doing.
She talks about all the excess money that went into the economy that was what caused the inflation and how the Banksters are
attempting to destroy demand because of it. This is a very intelligent woman, no wonder she couldn't get on the Fed board. LOL
So, it would appear that the big move in gold we saw yesterday is getting some attention from the main stream Players.
This article is speaking to what Bank of America is now saying about where the gold price is headed in 2023.
The Banksters will slow rate hikes and at some point next year pause and may even begin lowering depending on how
bad things get. When the Street starts to see that happening PM's should take off. Maybe we're getting to the point of that
happening very soon. The big move in gold we saw yesterday may be proof of that.
Must read article.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-pivot-will-be-good-for-gold-in-2023-says-bank-of-america-11669982228?mod=home-page
Very interesting interview from the CEO of Barrick Gold. He spoke about life of mine and some about what kind of assets they want to buy.
He made this statement: "I don't think there are any tier 1 assets that fit our criteria in Canada that fit our criteria, and that is you've got to be
more than 500,000 oz. for more than ten years in the bottom half of the cost curve." That statement caught my attention because from what
I thought I had heard Dan say in past statements those type of resources aren't even around anymore in Canada. I assume Dan meant NEW resource assets and not ones that are already being mined.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-12-01/I-don-t-think-I-d-be-sitting-here-if-we-hadn-t-done-that-Barrick-CEO-on-debt-reduction-over-M-A.html
I think this article has it about right. Although IMO how low we could go is still up in the air.
The markets are seeing some tailwinds because of what Powell said this week about a .50 rate hike instead of something more.
Gold and silver are benefitting from the new optimism too, the dollar is down.
I think that changes by Q1 of next year. There are too many negatives coming in 2023 that should weigh heavily on the markets and curtail a higher move in them. I wouldn't expect PM's to act real positively in that environment, so I don't expect us to go through our old highs in the near term. JMO
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-strategists-see-us-stocks-095512647.html
Just watched this video about some TA Lady giving her opinions on where the metals and the dollar are heading. Go to about the 7 minute mark of
the video and she talks about that. She thinks the dollar is headed lower in the near term, but I'm not so sure about that myself. She is calling for higher gold and silver prices if that comes about.
If the market falls out of bed in Q1 of next year I would expect the dollar to climb higher in response to a lower stock market. IMO we could see a lot of volatility move back into the world in the first half of next year. Time will tell, but I just can't see the bottom as being into the markets yet.
Thanks for posting Dan's presentation.
Every time he talks about Duparquet there's more nuggets that are revealed. The biggest thing he said I heard was that deposits structured like Duparquet have the most gold in the 1000 ft. deep range. He made the point that there have only been a few holes even drilled at Duparquet at that depth. That tells me there's a very good chance of the resource there adding significantly more gold to the 5 million oz. they know are already there. This may be a 9 or 10 million oz. deposit after all is said and done. No wonder he said they were in a hurry to get more drilling done there to see what gold is there at those deeper depths. It should be very significant.
Dan talked about the "starter pit" again and that's hopefully a way for us to get some revenue going sooner rather than later. I'm not sure how they're going to attempt to do this, but the fact that Dan's talking about it indicates to me it could be done. That's promising in itself.
No doubt Duparquet is a home run for the Company, but is as usually the case, the Street doesn't even notice or care. IMO that will change when the mining sector finally comes back into favor. When that happens, we'll finally be "discovered" by the investment community. It's coming IMO.
Of course, I'm adding more shares while we're still cheap at these bargain prices.
Dan in Deutschland.
He sounds pretty good in this presentation and really in command of the facts.
A lot of key points, a few that I remember:
-- Duparquet has had 270,000 meters of drilling (I believe he said in a 3km area?);
-- Duparquet starter pit would be about 2g/t and they are going to scope it out over the course of the next year;
-- Arsenic is the legacy issue at Duparquet, but Dan made the point that remediation will not occur unless a mine is built;
-- The two other nearby resources that are part of that package are significant - one he mentioned is a million ounce resource;
-- Duparquet is open along strike and at depth and he mentioned most deposits there start at about 1,000 in depth;
-- Duparquet has not been fully explored at depth.
Feel free to add more because he hit on a lot of important points. Duparquet is truly a game changer. I am going to try to buy a few more shares in December as my budget allows.
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