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true. drys will likely go higher with earnings and has things going for it.
i've been trading a lot, and doing well
however now i'm calling GGP again.
so many possibilities with it, including complete buyout.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-tue-general-growth-0324-mar24,0,6634294.story
also in some CEMJQ .03 .. 400M in Debtor-in-Possession financing granted. I see it consolidating briefly here before a sharp move upwards.
GGP - in for the big dough.. i see dollars per share and will wait for them.
~DRYS~ showing some strength again...
well .. i was thinking going lower yesterday .. but ...hey, no LOL
the downtrend on S&P as shown on the chart has been broken out. ... so what ? more upside coming ??
i like FAZ also
have a good day
SnP had a bullish close today...breaking key gann angles and violating what was thought to be wave 1...now its just wave a...
...i do not trust this market...targeting ~FAZ~ calls for tomorrow...watching this market today was very interesting indeed...
you could be right...chart looks very bearish...most stocks will follow the s&p to new lows,IMO...anything can happen though...gl...I'll keep an eye on those puts,thanks...
hi Sir ..
how do u see Visa ???
i see a sad gap to close around 43$
got a chart for me ?
thanks
not bad for a small daytrade...still not ready to put any serious money into this market...love it when a plan comes together...probably should've waited another day for bigger gains...I just try hard to be greedy,especially when it comes to options and when going against the trends,,,$1200 bucks is $1200 bucks...
~FCX~ i added 35 more ~FCXPG~ so I now have 75 apr 35 put @(ave)1.36367...I really like this play technically but looking to exit before EOD...targeting 39.00 for whats looking abc'ish...looking good so far,but one has to respect the pure strength of the commodity plays...
opened 40 ~FCXPG~ @1.317 (apr 35 puts ~FCX~)it gapped up huge ...could be a nice scalp...we'll see...
Tomorrows contrarian play...~DRI~
Estimated Market Cap
$4,976,062,665 as of Mar 18, 2009
buy 22 april 35 puts ~DRIPG~ @ 2.20 x 2.30 (30 days left)
today's open interest 215..
today's volume = 1,539 (apr 30's appear to have more interest & power...but the conservativeness of the 35's are more relaxed,IMO...)
This is what I would describe as an extremely high probability set up...the perfect pitchfork resistance coincidences combined with the complete over-extendedness of the upper-Bollinger band penetration (weekly & daily)...did I mention the juiciest gap that Ive seen for awhile...
daily
weekly
1) buy 2 ~YPXAE~ (jan 16,2010-25 calls)(309 days left) @ 16.15 x 16.45 = $3290
2)sell 2 ~FCXDG~ (apr 18,2009-35 calls)(36 days left) @ 4.65 x 4.75 = $930
3)buy 8 ~FCXPG~ (apr 18,2009-35 puts)(36 days left) @ 2.70 x 2.72 =$2176
that was the move...unfortunately his account wasn't set-up with margin privileges,IB does not consider the LEAP as coverage,so,it's classified as short instead of a covered-call like structure...
I'll have to settle for a few puts...10 april 35 puts @2.627
this morning I am going to establish (for a family member),what I call a Hedged Covered LEAP...this play is what I would describe as (conservative/aggressive)...
After I construct the positions,I will make another post with details,prices, percentages,and charts...the company is Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold, or ~FCX~...set up perfectly IMO...
thanks a lot man,thats the tone I was looking for...I'll pass it along...atleast its the weekend and I have a little time to explain the DD to them...good people,just market noobs...
Im not going to post how much thier up ,but dude...its ridiculous
From what Ive read,it would seem foolish for the bond holders to chop off their nose to spite thier face...
thanks again
well, they should pay attention to the news.
General Growth Properties is covered by many news outlets, so they can just do a news search on any search engine and stay up to date.
http://news.google.com/news?pz=1&ned=us&hl=en&q=%22general+growth+properties%22
I have no targets. There was some call buying activity today, so maybe you could play it that way.
The only figure that means anything is $12 in assets over liabilities. It's only here (price) because 4 bil debt is either due or near due, and they need refi.
Monday 5pm is the deadline for the Rouse subsidiary bondholders to agree to forbear.. news may come after the bell.
I won't suggest when they should take any or all off the table, that's their call.. but I will say that the potential to head into multi-dollars in the near term is definitely there.
After the bondholders news, assuming they agree, Citi will extend it's loan, and GGP will sell malls. They already have offers for at least 400M on 3 properties, and others up for sale.
It's an events-based company, and if the spectre of possible bankruptcy is put back in the closet, it can work it's way back to 5-10+ as rapidly as events and the credit markets allow.
If that happens, I would tell them not to sell it short, so to speak.
hey RonnieD,thanks for the heads up on ~GGP~
...didnt get any myself,but told a few non.ihub friends about it...(apparently they got in today @ (.45) a lot heavier than I would've ever reccomended...
I gave you all the credit...they asked me what the potential target is...unbelievably,they have'nt sold anything...
they are close friends so I have to tell them to take half off the table asap,no matter how it turns out(they put a lot of money on it with any DD,just on my face)...I will tell them to do so at the ask,of course...
...LOL...thats the last time I do that...I dont like feeling responsible for others crazy betting...
I told them to try for 1.35 but wanted your opinion...
I'd really appreciate a response when you have the time...PM if necessary...TIA
Blue Horse Shoe told me to go long Monday as well and buy financials and have done amazing so far! hehe =p
...it would truly take a crystal ball to answer that question correctly...
I went long real heavy on monday and as of twenty minutes ago, am in 100% cash...
I may miss more upside indeed...
...all I know is that technical analysis is still alive and well...Im very proud of todays traders...indeed...
...pay close attention to S&P 804.30...gl
GM turns down billions???? huh What am I missing?.......anyone care to throw in thier 2 cents.
Wow! Thanks, I was done in by the "2" instead of "to".
Have the markets found thier rally point, or are gonna go down still??????
here's some definition per wikipedia...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark-to-market
Hi 6979, check my recent post where I checked the shorting of equal fas/faz for a 52% gain in 6 months. Looks like if you can short these in a reasonably non-volitile market there is money to be had.
msg# 1521
Mary Kate was talking about Mart2market..what is that all about? I did Google search and came up ziltch.
tothe, I lurk BBoca's board...hes very talented..ZZ too...
always good to see what different traders are thinking...thanks
thanks for the analysis on the 3x's...its difficult to explain,but I do understand what you are trying to say...please let me know if you come across any unique strategies using them...
...there are some unanswered questions concerning the 3x's that I havent had time to review myself...One topic is concerning the options...it gets complicated because we get into (delta,gamma,theta,vega,& rho)issues... I'm curious as too which moves faster on a big directional move...the less leveraged-side with calls,or the more-leveraged-side with puts???
...every time I get 1 answer...2 new questions pop up...LOL...
~6979~, here is the board of another options trader, he has a great sense of humor & most of the penny player posters do not have a clue what he is talking about. You two should hit it off fine and your Fib. charts might spark a riot or two..
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=36115260
I guess it could, I,m sure you seen wacky trading such as both sides up at the same time, however I think they are fairly consistant and It seems that without a waterfall drop or rocketblast gain you will lose longterm on the straddle long play.
What's the trade?
Jon Najarian suggests a higher risk play – he suggests long the Financial Bull 3x ETF [FAS 2.64 -0.11 (-4%) ] which is triple long ahead of the mark-to-market hearing.
UPDATE: Stocks Could Skyrocket After March 12th
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29549920
Since there is no guarantee that both the Long AND Short 3X ETF's return exactly 3 times the underlying could that significantly effect your return either positively or negatively?
To add to the last post, if equal weighted from nov 08 to mid feb 09, 100.00 invested eual weighted long in fas/faz straddle would have reulted in 37.92 = -62%
Then the next 3 weeks would have increased to 46.50 for a 3 week advance of 22% but still down 53% for the 6 month period
To add to my last post, the last 3 weeks + 85% gains in the long fas/faz straddle was skewed because of the large difference in PPS, if the investment was equal weighted the gains would be about 22%
DT, I just did a comparison on yahoo finance of fas verses faz for 6 months, I could post the chart but you need the interactive to give you the prices, the chart just shows percentages. it is a real eye opener. For 6 months the combined price starts @ 150.27 then plummets to the 50's in a relatively non volatile market compared to the recent, then ends @ 106.71 current. It seems that a straight up or down situation has great gains as the gaining issue becomes more leveraged each day while the losing issue becomes less. The last few weeks (about 3) went from 53 to 106 combined price.
My conclusion shorting both only works in bi direction market while long both works in a unidirectional market.
Hi DT, I will look for that study and see if I can find it, however some more points to the shorting were being able to pocket the funds maintenance fees as well as the decay of the attached options. What I do not know is if the shares are available to short. I heard on AJTJ's site shares of SKF were shortable as well as a couple of other 2x funds.
Do you have a link ?
Assuming ...
the Underlying Index goes Up %1 then Down 1%.
Then the 3X Fund goes Up / Down 3% every two days.
That creates 0.09% Shrinkage every two days.
Which is a Gain if SHORT.
Compounded for 100 of 2 Day Round Trips
is about 10% Gain per year.
If you can find a 3X Fund that swings more than +/-3%
per day then your Returns increase accordringly.
Also, would you need to balance the two funds
every night to remain Market Neutral?
I stand corrected, thx. Are you aware of the current theories going on about shorting both the long and short and acheiving as much as a 40% year long gain?
If the underlying fund goes Down 5% on Day #1
then it must go UP 5.263% on Day #2 to "Recover 100%".
Therefore in the 3X Fund ...
Day #1 it does Down 15% (-5% x 3) from 100% to 85%
Day #2 it goes Up 15.789% (+5.263% x 3) from 85% to 98.42%
Not quite as bad as your math states.
Yes there is a slow and constant loss in 2X & 3X funds due to the math.
But it will be insignificant if you invest Long/Short correctly.
Hi everyone, 6979, I posted on AJTJ's site yesterday on the 3x ETFs design, i hope this can help someone and is not "old news" The design of 3x ETFs is to follow the underlieing index for 3x for THAT DAY, so if your say down 5% on the index and 15% dn on the etf and it recovers that day you break out even theoretically. However if it closes and recovers the next day then lets do the math: 100 invested down 15% = 85 then up 15% the next day = 97.75 this compounded on daily becomes big. Also interestingly it works out the exact same if up 15% then down the next 15% = 97.75
Snoot,
... S&Psycholgical dissection...with a new low @666.79...for obvious reasons, I cannot help but to feel a little symbolic today...
...symbolism is so ironic and full of mystery sometimes,isn't it... I definitely relate symbolism to charting...sometimes,charting is like staring into the sky at the clouds...analyzing the shapes and movements...trying to make sense out of something that has no sense...there are times when the shapes are so obvious,so clear,so simple...then there are times when you wish the wind would blow one cloud a bit to the left so it would definitely form a dragon...
...as with all things important,we must use our imagination...in my opinion, the hardest part of charting is to "utilize your imagination to the fullest extent,without, letting your imagination turn in to exaggeration..."
...its OK to differ in opinions or views...any random # of people can look at the clouds at the same time and see totally different things...sometimes they communicate and actually view the same images...what they see is the beauty of perspective...
...for instance,concerning the S&P chart below...some people will say that technical analysis is no longer relevant under these current market conditions...or, support levels over ten years old have no relevance...I absolutely respect those opinions while maintaining a totally different view...I believe that everything on a chart has the potential to take deeper meaning in the eyes of all traders,regardless of time or presentation...everything is potential...we all have different objectives,goals,and time horizons... It has been trendy to bet the markets down recently...this trend could change with one chart,one speech,one change of law,one incident......one perspective...the power of the Internet can put so many people on the same page so fast its almost unbelievable...
...sometimes history, charts & clouds vaguely repeat,seemingly over & over again...never,in exactly the same way or precisely the same shape...
...as hard as it may sometimes be to keep in mind...
every single day,cloud,or chart is unprecedented...
..."if you've made it this far...why not go a little further..."...Andy Dufresne
"FIGInomics" ~6979~
That's... what I thought you were saying. For my sake I kinda hope it's all 1
because 2 up could have a higher lag than a 4 up... wouldn't ya think?
Those are great together. Thank you!
my guess is that wave four will test the nov low of 741 which may be resistance now...Remember that Elliott wave theory isnt always precise...but it sure is looking that way now...
You can really put things into perspective viewing the daily and weekly charts together...
Could you post a daily when you get a chance?
I usually understand better from the visual side.
A shorter time frame outlining what you described.
>if all this recent action is just a wave 1<
If I get it... That's a big eye opener! hmm 2 or a 4 bounce
Sorry, I can't find it here on your board if you've already done so.
Thank You
Compare that chart to SH. It shorts the S&P500, [I just bought it Monday a.m.] as I see things getting progressively worse for the market as a whole.
usually straddling or hedging is done on the same stock, playing it both ways, instead of playing two.
oh, hey, that's not my chart...
http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Mid_Week_Analysis_Mar_3_09.htm
Your's is excellent!
Was watching those April 3 Calls I wanted. They sure didn't move much. The Implied Volatility drained pretty hard.
Rethinking this... Might do better to just trade more shares or sell puts rather than buy calls.
Calls are so far out of the money it doesn't seem it will work.
Thanks for your chart.
I think your S&P chart could be spot on...
The chart Im using is a bit more broader ,but the levels could be very close...
Im looking to test the 25% line that I have marked...this week was a critic break imo,more so than the break of nov low...
the wave count youve made is perfect...If you look at this weekly chart closely,you can see that the wave count in your chart could be wave (one or three) of a broader wave five...
if all this recent action is just a wave 1...wave three is going to be ugly...its not unfounded considering how huge the big wave three was...from everything that I see,this action is definitely Elliott impulsive...
I am also waiting for the bottom of wave five...I've been making tiny trades for the last few months, p38 style...the big show has yet to begin...Im keeping it kind of quiet for now...I have some cannons on standby though...
I like your chart...projecting into the future is the only way to chart imo...good job...
I just ran the mathematics ...it turns out that that by buying ~FAZ~ & ~FAS~ at the same time with equal dollar amounts,you actually start to lose your initial basis after the first several days...I knew something was wrong with something that sounds so good in theory...
example...$30,000 equally divided between ~FAZ~ & ~FAS~...
15000-11%=13350+30%=17355+25%=21693.75-17%=18005.81+9%=19626.33-30%=13738.43
on the reverse side... 15000+11%16650-30%=11655-25%=8741.25+17%=10227.26-9%=9306.80+30%=12098.85
13738.43
+12098.85
-----------
=$25,837.38
...thats only after 6 trading days...it could get worse or better, but the whole point of my analysis was to try to find a conservative way to manage the 3x's...obviously,this wasnt it...
I almost thought that I had the solution by selling way otm strikes and simply sit back and collect the ultra high premiums...I was horrified to discover that my initial basis would fluctuate to that degree while hedging...thats just the way that the mathematics work...
When it comes to the 2x & 3x's,Ill have to continue to make smaller directional bets...saving the big money for a more covered call-friendly market...not quite there yet imo...
thanks for your opinion...I am also a directional trader,and will continue to do so...Its just that I will be managing much bigger amounts very soon,so Im looking for a conservative approach to handle the majority of cash...
I believe that you have a very good point about trying not to get called out...that is why I like the 3x's premiums because even otm calls are high priced.
just look at the april 9 calls(~FAS~)20x.35, that =to almost 9% premium...
the ~FAZ~ april 140 calls also bring you 10%
those strikes are so far otm that even if you did get called out it would still be profitable...
the only reason I like the hedge concept is because your major capital is really not at risk...anything you lose on one side you make up for on the other side...the trick is as you say to not get called outso you can continue to collect premiums every month...the 1x & 2x premiums arent high enough for the strategy to make sense...
i wish i held my March puts longer.
took 64% in a day now like 225%.
is GE toast or what?? never ever ever ever thought i would live to see this......
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Everyone is responsible for their own entry & exit points.
A place where Fundamental analysis can meet with Technical analysis.
Timing is everything.
The advantage that we have now over the 'Legends of the past ',is that our market is much more Global... There will be new legends in our time, some unknown...hopefully some of those legends will surface here. The most intense charting techniques,the most solid & thorough fundamental analysis, and exact thoughts at precise times by some of the greatest traders of our time...that, is what I want this board to become one day.
Einstein ~said to question everything...
Fibonacci~ said to implement egyptian mathematics....
GANN ~said to focus on 45 degree angles...
Bullkowski ~said to focus on % probabilities...
Andrew ~said to exploit Pitchforks...
Bollinger ~said to intensely monitor volatility...
Buffett said to focus on markets that you understand then exploit the fundamentals...
Livermore said to evaluate everything ahead of time,& then swing with it...
Benjmin Graham~ said to simplify every investment down to the lowest Intrinsic Value...F/A before T/A...
Michael Phelps ~showed us to Hold nothing Back...
~6979~ ~says that if the tactic/technique isnt broken... then dont fix it...follow the masters...
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