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thank you dim, that would be great..
btw, how in the heck do you write a script? and where do you get the language that the program recognizes?
no benn, i used AmiBroker. you can try it free and i can send you the script if you like.
http://www.amibroker.com/
dim, did you do the research on that wealth charts site?
RSI under 16...
I created a simple system tonight based on just RSI and back tested against ndx, with data from 1985 to today. No optimization was attempted.
Two criterias are:
1) Buy when rsi is less 16
2) Close position when rsi crosses back above 25
Results:
-From 1985 to today, the there 57 signals: 46 winners and 11 were losers.
-From 2000 to today, the there 14 signals: 13 winners and 1 loser.
-from 1985 to today, of the 11 losers, only two were more than 10%. The dates of those two trades were 10/16/87 - 10/21/87 and 9/7/2001 – 9/24/2001. The remaining 9 losses average to 2.43% loss, with none more than 4.5%
just some stats i found interesting.
btw, does the two date ranges above ring a bell?
good trading today dim.. eom
both NDX and DOW now showing Three Black Crows circling.
Battle for Middle Earth begins!...i mean Battle for 200ema line begins!
NDX closes below 200ema on above average volume. Also chart showing 20/50 ema cross over today. RSI(5) is now below 16 however. if you are long, i guess you are hoping Bradley Turn Date (due 1/25) brings capitulation!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[p,a]daclyyay[pc20!c50!c200!d20,2!f][vc60][iUd20!...
thanks method...i'll take 10% any day.
wow, great call Dim.
In ASTM for, HOPEFULLY, a bounce play in the PM. 60 min very oversold and 3 periods closed outside BB.
in @3.00
anyone with access to the casinoclub around?
VIAC IPO doing well today. STEM and ASTM may move in sympathy.
wooohooooo, nice tradin dim...very impressive
to consecutive days of rather negative breadth, time for a bounce a 1 to 2 day bounce. going to try the 4Qs one more time @37.43 in AH for a play tomorrwo.
exited all SIRI positions today:
remaining Short from 8.30 ((+33.34%)
Closed Jan 7.5 puts (+680%)
and short of Jan 10 Calls (sold calls), will pocket 100% of premium as i do not think siri is closing above 10 toorrow.
this last few trades were admittedly overly agressive (maybe foolish), but worked out and the sale of those jan 10 calls had given me some downside protection. Jan 7.5 puts, like clock work, nearly doubled in value the last week as stock lost nearly 20% in the last few days (leading up to expiration).
might pop tomorrow, oil dipped after hours, my Cree's coming in alittle more to my next entry 24.28, low 24.48, after hours 24.24 X 24.41..
out! EBAY stinking up the boards...
i've got a few more days for expiration and will be taking profits before friday. it will turn out to be a nice 3week trade.
siri is pullin alittle bit for ya dim, i looked at it alot over the past few days, and i dont think shes stopping at the 5.75 fib.. i hope you still have some short on her tho, if you do, drinks on you?
It is starting to look like the market may have put in short term bottom. NDX closed back above it’s 50ema on good volume and this coming off oversold and a bb buy signal a few days ago...Looks like there may be room for a decent move especially since it came with decent breadth.
Here’s a system I have written to identify such signals....doesn't give many signals during the year, but when it does, it is a fairly accurate signal. Try it with ^NDX and QQQQ and you will see it is rather accurate:
http://www.wealth-lab.com/cgi-bin/WealthLab.DLL/editsystem?id=33699
that astm reminds me of WEL (Boots and Coots) when it was .40 ( i bought at .44)and then news came out that their in trouble financially, and it dipped and i sold at a minor loss, then news came out that they might be the ones putting out fires in IRAQ, and presto 2.90 in days, lol.. i looked at the profiles of stem, gern, and astm the other night boy they dont look good, bad balance sheets, no cash, the list goes on and on.
but if wall street likes it, it goes up..
thanks dim, trying a different approach today that i thought about over the weekend,
btw, astm is rockin after hours 3.55
correction 3.60
nice play. astm and stem doing well today. missed entries on them though. been a bit busy today, so no trading today, just watching
should be the bottom of its new range, if im wrong 24.28 is next, if not high 28s should be a good exit
im still waiting on her, im thinkin 2.41
Thank you, Dim, for the critique, and for the additional features (very good).
stopped out 4.36
it looks like ASTM might be a play next week. consolidating at higher end of a triangle or pennant it seems. STEM is also showing the same thing, although ASTM seems more appealing right now.
Exellent! excellent. i have a similar scan that i am using with AmiBroker, but luckily, that comes with a "BBand Width Indicator", so i use that, conveniently. Were i to have to come up with a way to calculate the width my self, it would be exactly as you are doing.
Some additional checks to fine tune might be...:
1) maintain some sort of "Avg BBAND witdth". this would be representive of the the historical trading range of the stock. either a 6month or 1 yr would work well i think.
2) when the current bar's bband width falls a certain percentage below the Avg BBAND width, you MAY be starting a BB squeeze.
3) If it remains below that avg for X bars (where X is what you think constitutes a decent consolidation period), the stock is consolidating in a BBand squeeze.
Thanks for the enthusiasm!
At this point, the logic is very simple. It was just the bare minimum "proof of concept."
As I understand it, Tradestation does not allow you to scan "per-se", but it can be achieved via their "Radar Screen" tool, which is basically a spreadsheet into which you load your domain (stock list). They have prebuilt stock lists of various indices (SP500, etc). This is less efficient than performing a scan against a back end database, to say the least.
My code calculates a value which represents the BB width as a percentage of the 20MA. It can be run on any interval (5min, 60min, daily, etc). After running my program, I perform a sort based on my resultant field ("BB width percent"). The stocks with the tightest squeezes then appear at the top of the list.
I will start adding more filters or sort fields (MACD divergence, etc) as I think of them. Any suggestions you can give will be much appreciated.
Code:
inputs: price( Close ), length( 20 ), numDevsUp( 2 ), numDevsDn( -2 ), displace( 0 ) ;
variables: avg( 0 ), sDev( 0 ), lowerBand( 0 ), upperBand( 0 ), bbWidthPct (0);
avg = AverageFC( price, length ) ;
sDev = StandardDev( price, length, 1 ) ;
upperBand = avg + numDevsUp * sDev ;
lowerBand = avg + numDevsDn * sDev ;
bbWidthPct = ((upperBand - lowerBand)/avg)*100;
Plot1( bbWidthPct, "bbWidthPct" ) ;
nice! post the code if you get a chance.
what are you using to determine the bollinger width?
Dim, just wrote my first BB squeeze scan in TS. This is getting interesting!
it stopped just shy of a fib, 77.15 would be the 618 retracement from the low you posted of 23, ill check out your options on siri tomorrow, very interested in learning them, thanks again dim.
dim, thanks for the advice duely noted as usual coming from you, , my eye is on the .5 retrace point, i hate these sideways markets too much risk for me especially the ones ive been watching, stem gern siri astm vitx..
did some stock scans and will be watching a few new tomorrow, neng medi rfmd ango coms wgat ipix naps .
TZOO
Possible one or two day bounce play:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=TZOO,uu[p,a]daclyyay[pc20!c50!c200!d20,2!f][vc60][iUd20!....
Important to honor stops on this one…it has only recently closed below it’s 50ema, something it has not done since May 05. But very oversold, so tt may try a re-test of that 50ema, but if it does that, I would take profit quickly, to be safe. For longer term play, this would be a good short on any bounce.
Safest plays seem to be short break of 75, buy break of 111, as that would take the stock out of its sideways range (and a wide one at that).
SIRI:
A much needed and anticipated bounce today, considering how oversold this stock was. However, i don't think it is wise for longs to get excited here until 6.48 can be taken out with VOLUME, and explain why below. Stock cannot move in one direction forever. At some point the move becomes so exhaustive; a bounce is needed to attract players in the opposite direction to provide liquidity for a continuation of the move.
BULLISH points: bounce may have a bit more to go to relieve oversold conditions. Stock is still trading under its lower BB band and still oversold. Key resistance is that 50ema which projects currently to around 6.48, but will deviate slightly in the coming days, depending on whether the stock goes sideways or not to move back within it's bands. There is good support below that may act as protection and that is the first uptrend line.
BEARISH points: many of things noted yesterday remain on the board, as no new supports were broken, but at the same time, no resistance was taken out. Looks like relief bounce or consolidation day, considering it is happening on lower than avg volume (as opposed to the last three days decline on lower abv avg volume). Siri has closed two days now under it's 50ema and technically, that is going to be it's biggest fight if it wants to move higher. uptrend line still looks just below and projects to around 6 to 6.08 area. That’s a good place for a stops, and I’m sure many traders counting on a bounce has em there.
options interest did not change much, $5 strike still the focus with calls having about 15% more interest than bulls, bearish for Jan 21st, and personally, one reason i think it is best to wait until after Jan 20/21st to load up if you are thinking of going long...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=SIRI,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pd20,2!c50!f][vc60][iut!Ub5!Lah12,2...
All this subjective of course.
NDX Trend has been broken and is trading under it’s 50ema. With today’s move, RSI moved from deep oversold to back above 25. There may be a bit more of a move here, but I think it will be a setup for a good short in the coming weeks.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[p,a]daclyyay[pc20!c50!c200!d20,2!f][vc60][iud20!...
VIX dropped nearly 5% today. VIX last 6 months has been trending down and based on the range of that down trend channel, it can be considered neutral, IMO.
10MA CPC also neutral, but EPC appears to be warning.
Some things to keep in mind:
-As mentioned last week, Commercials only went net short all majors recently.
-Insiders selling have been on the rise for some time, giving us a possible heads up of what to expect in 05.
-Keep an eye on January. “How January goes, so does the year”. (FYI: the press has been focusing on the first week of January as an indication for the year, that is not true. Back testing reveals performance of the first week has very little meaningful value HISTORICALLY. Back testing how the market performs when January closes negative on the other hand, does have an uncanny accuracy as far as forecasting the market
-50ema and Trend has been broken and how it retests will be key. How it re-tests and volume on the re-test will be key.
-BUT, keep in mind that QQQQ Options OI, AS OF RIGHT NOW, suggests a close by Jan 21st between 39 and 39.625.
the bias is has shifted to shorting the bounce it appears
out tivo 4.25, i must have the unmidas touch
it looks like with TASR getting smacked around like a rag doll, lot's of it's players are heading into STIY. 5.75 to 46 in three weeks. Holy Bubble Mania Batman!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=STIY,uu[p,a]daclyyay[pc20!c50!c200!d20,2!f][vc60][iUd20!...
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