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if have been updating that chart as it goes. it's coming up on it's first major trend line of the last 6 months. also, 6.0 area seems to be providing some good support. buyers came twice now at that area after a significant drop both time. the next time it tries to test that area, i think it will fail. if that is taken out, then the trend line is next followed by 5.74.
3 days in oversold and three days macd and other indicators continue to make lower lows, implying it has more to go and if it bounces (which it is in dire need of), those bounces are likely to be sold.
what a day, what a day. after that TASR fiasco, this morning, traded TASR 11 times today, i think a personal record for me on one stock. heh.
ALSO scalped LENF, ASTM and QQQ.
In reviewing the trades, All in all, i felt like someone on speed. a rather fast pace day. TASR gap down morning loss, i managed to recover. LENF first play went south quickly and stopped out for a 3%. but did well on a following plays. long 9.28 to 9.69, then reverse short to 8.98.
the "love" of my life, SIRI, continues to reward me. best trade of the year. oh wait, the year is only 11 days old. LOL.
I think trading TASR is going to be a focus of mine for the next few days. it is sure to remain volatile...EVEN OPTIONS.
i didn't check how much more that morning option play could have yielded, but the mere fact that one can pocket nearly 40% on an intraday option play is evidence of how volatility is affecting tasr option price.
anyway. it sure was a mistake going long tasr yesterday, but to be honest, in reviewing why i entered, i don't think i would have called it differently. i guess that is the game we play, on any given day, something or someone can come along and throw a wrench in your plans.
anyway, it turned out ok in the end.
Dim, great call. Continued down today to 50% retrace. Do you have an opinion re: will it continue down to 61.8% retrace?
their slappen that thing, gonna pay for all its sins
bailed on siri too, 6.18, and long again tivo 4.19
lol, method
No kidding. They just took it back out into the alley and put the boots to it.
long siri 6.20
all i can say is holy cow im glad i bailed
re: TASR, that was easy. Thanks, Dim!
you were in? did not know that.
sticking to alot of quick scalping today. don't want to take too much risk. ironically, TASR is probably the best scalp machine out there right now for quick +/- 10 to 20cents per/play use 1 minute chart. sell upper bb, buy lower or middle BB.
that puppy is black and blue and bloody.
i saw the lawsuit last night and figured it would get hit, just my luck. but then the open letter from management, man what a bunch of crooks. now they come out, after threat of a lawsuit and make these disclosures and forecast. needless to say, exited quickly. was going to hedge, but i figured that would just be a prolonged stalemate, since bounces on this are likely to be sold.
working on making back the loss however. thus far, one option play open and closed using Feb 15th at 1.80 and sold at 2.50 moments ago.
of the market? i am thinking of going short NDX wednesday/thursday.
as for tasr...ambulance chaser alert. may have to go for puts on that one to hedge tomorrow. that stock is getting the chit kicked out of it.
yea, me too, lost 700 on ngps today, whats your thoughts on furthur decline dim?
Though did very well on SIRI today, took a few hits…
Stopped out of STEM and finally closed AIRT (big loss on this one -14.5%, should have cut loss at the 200ema, lesson learned..or re-learned).
Still holding remaining half of siri short and I believe I will keep the the cash from those sold calls, as I don’t see this going above 10 by jan 21st.
Still long TASR and under, but at good support and will be waiting to see OI tomorrow in deciding next step).
Two scalps on QQQQ for net +.8%
its closeing in on the ema 200 on the daily of 19.80
hummmmmmm, interesting.. their really hammering it today
a bit more on TASR...i was not correct in that option writers would lose, it is more a matter of whether they want to MAXIMIZE their profit. right now, even if the let it fall more, they would still win because the combined contracts at 27.50 and 30 far out number all others, so that's money in the bank for them. however, optimally, if they move up some to close between 25 and 27.5, they would clean house...
thanks benn:
Took half profit on SIRI @ 6.25 (from 8.35 short). Still holding half and from about a month and ½ ago, sold Jan 10 calls.
Took a position in stem @5.75
Took a position in TASR just now @20.78. Tasr is interesting as there are a ton of bad news, and it may have more to go, BUT, if you look at some option analysis, writers are going to loose on this one unless it bounces in expiration. It is very risky, but I’m going to bet on the writers and go long a swing position here for expiration
dim, that was a great short on siri, bottomed so far at 6.60, congrats again
good thinkin, ill keep an eye as well, also watch GERN, im hopeing we get alittle retrace for a good entry but well see, see you in the morning, time for some sleep..
yes, still short...thinking tasr may be a good long play soon and i looking to play STEM or ASTM tomorrow, with the ViaCell IPO, they should get some attention...
for what its worth, (you know me and my almanac), there hasnt been a loseing year ending in 5 (2005)since 1885.. the first 5 days of jan. are the most important historically.
thanks dim, i like the siri chart, looks alittle more convincing than the 6.88 support i had chosen.. Ill be watching tomorrow for a buy, hey by the way nice trading last week, very impressive numbers with TASR, and siri, btw, are you still holding siri short from 8.30?
It seems many are treating this as just a healthy and much needed correction...that bothers me. When the bounce comes and they start proclaiming the "healthy" correction is over and we are on our way to new highs, I think it will be a good shorting opportunity.
We are that point where a decent bounce might come, as there are a series of good supports to key off, but i don't believe it will lead to new highs (that's the thinking right now anyway):
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]daclyyay[pc50!d20,2!f][vc60][iud20!uah12,26,...
they mysteries of the universe....
Wow. The way you've marked it up, the geometry (triangles) is simply Pythagorean. I dare say "textbook?" I'm thinking, is it "coincidence" that those bottom two support lines just happen to coincide with the 50% and 61.8% Fib retrace marks right about now? Hmm. And is that why it started dropping around Dec. 6, cuz they knew they only had a month to get it down to where a 50% retrace would coincide with a key support line? Hmm. Lots to ponder on this one.
If you are trading, just the way you want a triangle breakdown to happen, with volume. I expect the BB squeeze showing here to now begin to expand and buyers continue to herded out the door Oexp, next support looks like 6.62
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=SIRI,uu[h,a]daclyiay[pd20,2!f][vc60][iut][J41111287,Y]&a...
nice trading!
sold 22.50
thanks alot dim, you know i value your opinion..
bb
benn, just continue ask and explain what you don't understand and i'll try to write up something maybe this weekend to explain more clearly if necessary.
option writers tend win more than buyers. that is how it relates to equity price. Which ever side will put more money in their pocket is the side that will probably expire worthless, meaning price will move away from that strike going in the money.
dim, thanks for that options explanation, i think ill just keep following until i can understand how they relate to the equitie price..
bb
tasr should be good for scalping today.
We may be at a point for an ST bounce:
Looking at this same chart that warned of a significant decline, now shows a confluence of support here:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[p,a]daclyyay[pc20!c50!c200!d20,2!f][vc60][iud20!...
Also on NDX, price has closed below lower Bollinger band 3 days in a row, a historically good signal indicating a bounce to at least the middle band (back testing of this simple signal on the NDX and QQQ as proven 100% accurate since 1999)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=NDX,uu[p,a]daclyyay[pc20!c50!c200!d20,2!f][vc60][iUd20!U...
I do believe any bounce here needs to be watched carefully, as it could simply be an oversold relief bounce that may be a bull trap.
Took profit on tasr @27.55 for about +17.5%
CLOSED out CRME today for about a 2.3% gain.
still short TASR and SIRI. still long AIRT, but may exit soon...cost avg down to 17.50 and is really eating into my
profit from other trade. will give it a few more days.
new one day play, went long STEM @3.77 earlier and will sell at EOD, even for profit or loss...doesn't look tempting enough on the daily and just looking for small momo gain on large number of shares.
benn,
the open interest on the Jan 30 and 32.50 calls are about 46K, while puts at those strikes are only 30K combined. so it appears the will want it to close under 30. the OI on the 27.5 is very close, so it looks like that may be a wash implying a close above 27.5, but closer to it than 30. that's how i'm reading it anyway.
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