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Not raising 2022 sales guidance—and what that implies about 2H22 (#msg-169566513)—is the main reason EOLS is trading down sharply today.
EOLS’ reiterated 2022 sales guidance “at the high end” of the $143-150M range implies little growth in 2H22 compared to 1H22. Jeuveau sales in 1H22 have been $70.4M ($37.2M + $33.2M), implying less than $80M of sales in 2H22.
EOLS 2Q22 product_sales=$37.2M—6/30/22_cash=$84.5M—(down from $106.7M @3/31/22):
https://investors.evolus.com/press-releases-and-news/news-details/2022/Evolus-Reports-Second-Quarter-2022-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx
2Q22 Jeuveau sales of $37.2 were +12% QoQ, consistent with seasonal trends in the aesthetics business.
EOLS reiterated guidance for 2022 Jeuveau sales to be at the high end of the $143-150M range, but this won’t be enough to reach breakeven operations.
EOLS continues to expect the EU launch of Jeuveau/Nuceiva in 3Q22.
EOLS 1Q22 product_sales=$33.2M—3/31/22_cash=$106.7M—(down from $146.3M @12/31/21):
https://investors.evolus.com/press-releases-and-news/news-details/2022/Evolus-Reports-First-Quarter-2022-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx
1Q22 Jeuveau sales of $33.2 (including $0.7M in Canada) were -2% QoQ, consistent with seasonal trends in the aesthetics business.
EOLS now expects 2022 Jeuveau sales to be at the high end of the prior guidance range of $143-150M, but this won’t be enough to reach breakeven operations.
EOLS continues to expect the EU launch of Jeuveau/Nuceiva in 3Q22.
Addendum—The $143-150M guidance for 2022 sales equates to $36.6M per quarter, which is only a little higher than the $34.7M logged in 4Q21. Even accounting for the fact that the fourth calendar quarter is seasonally strong, the 2022 guidance appears to be a lowball figure.
EOLS 4Q21 financials—revenue=$34.7M—12/31/21_cash=$146.3M:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220303005926/en
Both figures are consistent with EOLS’ PR on 1/26/22, which contained unaudited results (#msg-167647660).
EOLS reiterates 2022 revenue guidance of $143-150M (vs 2021’s actual $100M), but this won’t be enough to reach breakeven operations.
EOLS now expects the EU launch of Jeuveau/Nuceiva in 3Q22.
CFO Lauren Silvernail is retiring.
EOLS—(unaudited)—4Q21 sales=$34.7M—12/31/21_cash=$146M:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evolus-announces-preliminary-unaudited-fourth-134500854.html
Full-year 2021 sales were $100M. Sales guidance for 2022 is $143-150M.
EOLS—New $125M credit line:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evolus-enters-125-million-credit-134500141.html
The interest rate is LIBOR +8.5% (ouch).
EOLS starting "double-dose" phase-2 trial in glabellar lines to see if it can extend the duration of effect:
https://investors.evolus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolus-initiates-phase-ii-program-extra-strength-dose-extended
Results of the phase-2 trial will be available in 2023.
The idea won’t work, of course. RVNC Daxi’s extended duration comes from its peptide formulation, not from using a higher dose; however, the “higher dose” canard remains popular among RVNC’s competitors.
EOLS 3Q21 sales=$26.7M—6/30/21_cash=$108M:
https://investors.evolus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolus-reports-third-quarter-2021-results-and-provides-business
3Q21 Jeuveau sales of $26.7M were up 2% from $26.7M in 2Q21. Jeuveau sales for the 12-month period through 9/30/21 were $85.6M.
EOLS still exprcts an EU launch of Jeuveau in 2022.
EOLS 2Q21 sales=$26.1M—6/30/21_cash=$132M:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evolus-reports-second-quarter-2021-200500498.html
2Q21 Jeuveau sales of $26.1M were up from $12.2M in 1Q21 and $20.6M in 4Q20. )Botulinum-toxin sales are seasonally stronger in Q2 and Q4 than in Q1 and Q3.)
Of the $261.M in 2Q21, $25.4M was in the US and $0.7M in Canada (via a partnership). EOLS has not issued any Jeuveau sales guidance.
EOLS expects an EU launch in “early 2022.”
EOLS 1Q21 sales=$12.2M—3/31/21_pro_forma*_cash=$140M:
https://investors.evolus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolus-reports-first-quarter-2021-results-and-provides-business
1Q21 Jeuveau sales of $12.2M were sharply down from $20.6M in 4Q21 due to seasonality and to the absence of sales during the first half of 1Q21, prior to the litigation settlement with Medytox/Allergan.
EOLS has not issued sales guidance, but the above PR says that 2Q21 Jeuveau sales are “on track for” an annualized rate of $100M.
*Includes $117.6M raised since 3/31/21: $25.5 million from Daewoong in April 2021 (#msg-162731989) and $92.1 million net proceeds from the 4/21/21 public offering (#msg-163353769).
EOLS sells 10.35M* shares @$9.50—a 19% discount to yesterday’s close:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evolus-announces-pricing-public-offering-023000370.html
*Assuming exercise of underwriter’s option.
EOLS 4Q20 results:
https://investors.evolus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolus-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2020-results-and
12/31/20 pro forma cash = $57M, as reported yesterday (#msg-162731989). There are now 43.7M basic shares outstanding. (I haven’t calculated the number of fully-diluted shares.)
No sales guidance for 2021.
EOLS issues 3.1M shares to supplier, Daewoong in exchange for Daewoong’s $40.5M of EOLS debt and $10,5M in future milestone payments from EOLS:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evolus-strengthens-balance-sheet-25-131700672.html
Taking account of the above (subsequent) transactions, EOLS’ pro forma cash at 12/31/20 was $57M.
EOLS reports 4Q20 financial results tomorrow.
Medytox now owns 17% of EOLS as a result of the recent settlement:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1570562/000138713121003056/q21-02161_sc13g.htm
EOLS 4Q20 sales=$20.6M—up_from_$17.7M_in_3Q20:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1570562/000157056221000064/ex991022321.htm
No formal guidance for either 1Q21 or full-year 2021; however, the PR acknowledges that sales from mid-December to mid-February (the period during which EOLS was subject to posting a bond pursuant to the adverse ITC ruling) were minimal.
No conference call.
* * $EOLS Video Chart 02-19-2021 * *
Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video
(Revised)—EOLS settles ITC case with ABBV for undisclosed milestone payments and royalties on Jeuveau sales payable by EOLS to ABBV and Medytox:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/abbvie-evolus-medytox-announce-resolution-141500404.html
The settlement includes only the US ITC case against EOLS brought by ABBV/(Allergan)/Medytox—not the lawsuit in Korea where Medytox alleges that EOLS’s drug supplier, Daewoong, stole trade secrets.
As a result of today’s settlement, EOLS can continue to import Korean-made Jeuveau for sale in the US market. However, EOLS has not been selling much Jeuveau—only $17.7M in 3Q20—so this settlement probably won’t have much of an effect on the US botulinum-toxin market. (EOLS has not yet reported 4Q20 financial results.)
EOLS is +74% on today’s news, but still trading well below its $15 IPO price.
[A prior version of this post incorrectly stated that the settlement applied to both the ITC case and the Korean lawsuit.]
So, EOLS is back in business, but will Jeuveau have more than token sales? I’m not convinced. (Disclosure: Long RVNC.)
EOLS receives temporary injunction on enforcement of the ITC’s adverse decision on importation of (Korean made) Jeuveau into the US market:
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1570562/000157056221000049/eols-20210215.htm
Thanks...I see it now.
Thanks for sharing...
EOLS PR_re_21-month_Jeuveau_ban_from_US_market:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evolus-provides-united-states-international-224500084.html
According to the above PR, the ITC reversed its preliminary ruling that EOLS’ Korean supplier, Daewoong, stole Medytox’s trade secrets, but the ITC upheld its preliminary ruling that EOLS is in violation of US tariff law. Hence, the ban on Jeuveau sales runs for 21 months rather than (the preliminary ITC remedy of) ten years.
21month ban. Less than the 10yr recommended ban.
Did we get the final determination? Huge spike in price after hours...not seeing news though.
Yep! Definitely buying pressure coming in premarket. I think we’re going to have a great end of the year...Jeuveau will bring us to new highs in 2021 IMO
Thanks for the update! Hopefully taking a while to write that reversal.
ITC decision delayed to 12/16/20—no stated reason:
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1570562/000157056220000128/eols-20201119.htm
EOLS 3Q20 sales=$17.7M—up from $7.8M in 2Q20:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evolus-reports-third-quarter-2020-200500263.html
No 4Q20 guidance; no CC.
Thanks for the heads up. I bought options a few months out bc it was probably going to get pushed out. Always good when they need more time to write an opinion rather than just saying affirmed!
ITC’s final-determination date was extended from 11/6/20 to 11/19/20:
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1570562/000157056220000114/eols-20201022.htm
No reason was given for the rescheduling.
True. To elaborate, i don’t think allergan can claim the trade secret is injuring the US industry for a product not used in the US.
I think they are advancing an entirely unique legal theory here as well, specifically, that the alleged stealing of a foreign trade secret in another country can damage the US market, where the trade secret isn’t being used. This is a stretch of an argument in my opinion.
Looking to make my money back with Jan options. Allergan should lose this just like they lost the Native American patent gimmick.
EOLS 2Q20 sales=$7.8M—(down from $10.5M in 1Q20):
https://investors.evolus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolus-reports-second-quarter-2020-results-and-provides-business
6/30/20 pro forma cash—including $40M proceeds from convertible debt sold to supplier, Daewoong that closed in July (#msg-156729910)—was $124.8M.
2Q20 operating cash burn was ~$15M.
No revenue guidance for the rest of 2020.
EOLS is essentially a shell company now. Injectors in the US are not going to want to use Jeuveau, given that the product may be pulled from the market in a few months.
p.s. I'm long RVNC.
I knew they would lose why I sold at $10 but should of sold sooner. Still lost big on this stock
EOLS gets $40M financing from supplier, Daewoong:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evolus-strengthens-balance-sheet-secures-234810961.html
EOLS loses initial determination by ITC judge in case brought by ABBV (AGN) and Medytox:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/evolus-provides-united-states-international-234510826.html
If this initial determination is upheld by the full ITC in its final determination expected in Oct 2020, EOLS will be forced to remove Jeuveau from the US market.
Thanks for the update. I wonder whether the recent medytox allegations need to be reviewed.
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