Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE)

[risk on]

Who here thinks Saudi and Russia immediately pushed their foot to the floor once the meet was a bust, if not before the meet ever happened. I think theses petrol state players seriously dislike each other, and not just the historical beef between Saudi and the Persians. I would not be a bit surprised to hear Saudi announce in a very public manner they have actually ramped up production.

[jones99]

Mixed signals but looks strong so far but may not last that long now
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/stream_53175531.?1461050331

[maddog27]

I like your trade here with plenty of time on your side. No way the extent of losses are baked into prices at these levels. Guidance won't be much help but the only killer would be oil running higher from here. Just a matter time but seems like a no brainer.

[pkdaddy64]

How far down do we open this morning?

[Pro-Life]

XLE June 17 55 Put @ 95cents...

Weekly chart...

[Fibanotch]

vol , pickin g up,winter months

[magness]

Nice to see $XLE leading the sectors today but I'm still cautious as general sentiment in energy is still bearish.

[Timothy Smith]

EIA Petroleum Inventories:
• Crude -5.5M barrels vs. +1M consensus, +2.6M last week.
• Gasoline +1.7M barrels vs. -1.1M consensus, -2.7M last week.
• Distillates +1.4M barrels  vs. +1.1M consensus, +0.6M last week.
• Futures +0.25% to $39.11

[Timothy Smith]

Pros are bailing out of emerging markets, commodities, and energy-related stocks at a record pace, according to the latest BAML fund manager survey. A "late-summer pain trade" leading way to a rally could be at hand, says Michael Hartnett, BAML's chief investment strategist.

"Fears on Greece have been replaced by fears of Chinese recession/EM debt crisis," says Hartnett, noting more than 50% believe China is markets' biggest tail risk at the moment.

The relative positioning of emerging markets (EEM, VWO) to developed markets at -55% is the lowest on record (since April 2001), and allocation to the energy sector (NYSEARCA:XLE) - where a net 30% of managers are underweight - is the lowest since February 2002.

- Timothy Smith

[Timothy Smith]

Nice trend. Looks like a new support level may be forming.

[TREND1]

XLE M

[Timothy Smith]

Coal miners and related companies tumbled following today's announcement of the Obama administration's final Clean Power Plan, which aims to shift the U.S. energy mix towards renewable energy such as wind and solar while significantly limiting power plant carbon dioxide emissions.

[TREND1]

XLE W BY ART HILLXLE DOES A DOUBLE THROWBACK... Chart 5 shows the Energy SPDR (XLE) with a big head-and-shoulders pattern and a neckline break in late November. Broken support then turned into resistance and held in December as the ETF fell back to the low 70s in January. XLE bounced in February and again challenged broken resistance this month. This second throwback bounce appears to be failing as the ETF fell back the last two weeks. At this point, I think resistance is holding and the outlook is bearish. It is possible that the December-January lows formed a small double bottom, but I would not consider this confirmed unless XLE breaks above 82.50. The indicator window shows the XLE:SPY ratio flattening out the last three months as XLE performs inline with the broader market. A break above .40 would signal relative strength in XLE.

[Shaka_Zulu]

Target $57 in the coming months..

[llessurK]

XLE looking good 3 days into bounce. Looking for November 28th gap to fill on the daily:



Sector will consolidate first quarter 2015 as the stronger positive cash flow companies pick off the weaker over-leveraged losers. Law of the jungle.

[llessurK]

We'll see if there's more follow through this week but could very well be another fake out if oil rolls over some more tomorrow. Was an awesome trade today, though.

[Grouse Hunter]

Looking for an entry point here. I think lower lows are coming yet.

[llessurK]

XLE calls are golden today! Energy sector finally catching a bounce. Go! Go! Go!

[TREND1]

XLE D

[MWM]

It's starting, I was a few weeks early...

[MWM]

XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund Experiences Big Outflow
3/13/2013 @ 10:55AM

Looking today at week-over-week shares outstanding changes among the universe of ETFs covered at ETF Channel, one standout is the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (AMEX: XLE) where we have detected an approximate $102.9 million dollar outflow — that’s a 1.4% decrease week over week (from 94,924,200 to 93,624,200). Among the largest underlying components of XLE, in trading today Occidental Petroleum Corp (NYSE: OXY) is off about 0.1%, ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is down about 0.2%, and Anadarko Petroleum Corp (NYSE: APC) is lower by about 0.3%. For a complete list of holdings, visit the XLE Holdings page

[MWM]

XLE $80 major resistance all the way back to 2008...

[MWM]

Time to Fade oil and especially drillers/explorers, i fell like we are going to see a pullback similiar to what has happened to the miners very soon...

[OilStockReport]

The XLE owes much to the strong gains of its top holdings, such as Schlumberger [SLB] and Conoco Phillips [COP], which both gained nearly 30 percent last year.

Even in today's trade the XLE's top two holdings—Exxon Mobil [XOM] and Chevron [CVX] are outpacing the performance in the spot price of crude oil. (Exxon is up over 2 percent!)

The U.S. crude oil futures contract continues to be rolled into a contango (as the front month price is trading at a price that is less than in the coming months in 2011), and for that reason, Jakob says the USO ETF will continue to underperform oil equity ETFs in 2011.

My view: Stay long the XLE versus short the USO for an expected yearly return of at least 10 percent.

[futrcash]

XLE Double Top Breakout- 10/14/11-Great Oil ETF-

futr

[OilStockReport]

Energy has been a key leader for the broad markets over the last eight weeks; can the trend continue in the face of oil dropping 8.4% over the last week? If crude fails to move higher will the energy stocks be able to continue higher? XLE, the SPDRs Select Energy ETF -- the move has been in part due to the climb in crude oil prices by more than 20%. However, the oil equipment and services stocks have done their part to contribute to the move gaining more than 30% since the August low. Earnings have been on the rise along with revenue over the last two quarters and the outlook is for the trend to continue. Will that be enough for the sector to continue higher? Only time will answer the question emphatically, but we can speculate if XLE holds support ($60.90) the odds are good for a continued move to the upside. Watch XLE, USO and IEZ for potential opportunities moving forward.

[OilStockReport]

Energy has been a key leader for the broad markets over the last eight weeks; can the trend continue in the face of oil dropping 8.4% over the last week? If crude fails to move higher will the energy stocks be able to continue higher? XLE, the SPDRs Select Energy ETF -- the move has been in part due to the climb in crude oil prices by more than 20%. However, the oil equipment and services stocks have done their part to contribute to the move gaining more than 30% since the August low. Earnings have been on the rise along with revenue over the last two quarters and the outlook is for the trend to continue. Will that be enough for the sector to continue higher? Only time will answer the question emphatically, but we can speculate if XLE holds support ($60.90) the odds are good for a continued move to the upside. Watch XLE, USO and IEZ for potential opportunities moving forward.

[TREND1]

OIL price will play important part in the future market movement. IMHO.
But which way will oil price go ?
Only Time Will Tell ?

[euterpe1]

Trend1,

I don't really follow oil, but this is one honking divergence. Lower oil could put a cushion under the equity markets, at least temporarily.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p17884934400

[TREND1]

MWDH_XLE_6_19_08
I have been told that "they" are controlling the oil
futures.
If so "They" must be controlling the stocks in the XLE too.
.

[MetalFillBoy]

Hello Frenchee!

Sorry for not responding earlier; been busy with other things.

From looking at your 1 year daily chart, a pull back to several areas could happen. The 79-80 area would be one such area. The next below that would be the falling trendline that is around the 77 area right now.

Keep an eye on the $BPENER PnF chart for a clue for a longer term pull back. In my last post, it was looking over bought, and it still is over bought, but it has not reversed at all. This means the uptrend is still in tack. I would think any pull back that does not reverse this chart to a column of O's could be bought.

I post a breadth chart tonight.

Hope all is well!

[frenchee]

Hi Jared,

Just checking in to get your take on XLE's current short-term prospects.

TIA,

[frenchee]

Looks like it's time to DUG up some profits...

[frenchee]

Thanks for the analysis MFB. Insightful as always!

[MetalFillBoy]

Hello frenchee!

Sorry for the late reply; life has been busy.

In the short term, I agree; it looks like we should pull back. Up against some trendline resistance, as well as the Price and Volume McClellan Osc are in over bought territory. Both MACD indicators are also overbought, but have not turned over yet. Looks like odds favor a pull back. Target maybe the declining blue trendline, and/or the rising black trendline, around 73.

For the longer term, I am wondering it the XLE is finishing up with a diamond top formation, drawn in black. Not an expert in this pattern; just know it is topping pattern. Here is a link:

http://www.trending123.com/patterns/Diamond-Top-Chart-Pattern.html

The energy BP is still in a column of X's, but in the overbought of side of things. Given the short term outlook, tighten of stops would not be a bad idea.

Hope all is well with you and really like your signature picture!

[frenchee]

Hi MFB,

Up to down trend line resistance today on the daily charts. Wonder if a correction starts next week?

[frenchee]

New charts in iBox...

[frenchee]

Thanks Jared.

Glad you like the Raptor...

[MetalFillBoy]

Hello frenchee!

Sorry for not posting for a while. I have not traded the XLE since last year, so I have not kept up my charts as much.

Price looks like it has broken a falling trendline and has formed a rising channel since the 1/23 low. However, price looks like it is right up against some resistance, both trendline and price resistance, around 74. Looking at the price and volume McClellan Osc, both are overbought around +100. Finally, the red MACD line is looking overbought, while the blue MACD line is still pretty low (less than 30% of the XLE stock have a there MACD lines above zero).

Short term I would expect a pull back to the 72 level (the peak in that skewed W pattern), maybe even as low as the bottom of the channel. Longer term I am not sure. The blue MACD line is still pretty low, indicating the overall trend is lower. It would be nice to see it to start rising again after a pull back.

BTW, I have always like that picture of the Raptor(?) also!

[frenchee]

Hi MFB,

Long time no see your TA on XLE. What's your current take please?

[sammy1024]

thanks metal. i will ask him. have a good ny.

[MetalFillBoy]

Hello sammy!

Actually, I am not in the IT industry; sorry. However, I think mvpsignalsystem (Steve) is an IT guy. He posts on several different boards. I think you could ask him. If you need a board, let me know; I have him on my favorites.

Hope this helps!

Have a Happy New Year!!

[sammy1024]

Hi metal
I remember you mentioning you are on the IT side. I just took a SAP training class for the CRM module. Everybody wants someone who has experience. Do you know of a company of someone who is looking to take someone as entry level?

THanks

[frenchee]

Thanks...

[MetalFillBoy]

Hello Frenchee!

Sorry for the late reply. I have been fighting a cold the last few days, and not had the energy to post much.

From breadth point of view, thing have definitively turned bullish since the Nov 28 bottom. Both 5% trendlines on the McClellan price and volume Osc have turned up, as well as the Osc themselves. Also the red and blue MACD lines have moved up.

However, from a price point of view, it seems we have closed right at some resistance around 78. Not sure if we break thorough on the first try. Not seen real well on the candle chart is the rising wedge on the line chart on the bottom of the $BPENER chart. You can really see the support at 74 and the resistance at 78. You can also see that the BP is rising and well above 50, both bullish.

My take in the short term is that we fall out of the wedge to back test 74, then bounce up and through 78.

I haven't looked at your charts yet, so you may be saying the same thing.

I currently have no position in energy right now, but just closed out a profitable SSO long, so will have some available cash in a few days.

Alright, good luck!

[frenchee]

Hi MFB, what's your current short-term TA on XLE?

[frenchee]

PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT
http://www.theviewfromthepeak.net/docs/the_hirsch_report.pdf

[MetalFillBoy]

Hello Frog!

Thanks! I will keep them in mind the next time I open a position in energy!

[frogfan]

yep -- DIG is ultra long, DUG is ultra short

[MetalFillBoy]

Hello Frenchee!

Thanks for the heads up. I will up date my charts tonight and take a look.

I have seen DIG and DUG go by in some posts. I need to check them out. I have only been playing XLE from the long side. I am assuming DUG is inverse energy, with DIG being long energy?

Thanks!