Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE)

[TREND1]

XLE W BY ART HILLXLE DOES A DOUBLE THROWBACK... Chart 5 shows the Energy SPDR (XLE) with a big head-and-shoulders pattern and a neckline break in late November. Broken support then turned into resistance and held in December as the ETF fell back to the low 70s in January. XLE bounced in February and again challenged broken resistance this month. This second throwback bounce appears to be failing as the ETF fell back the last two weeks. At this point, I think resistance is holding and the outlook is bearish. It is possible that the December-January lows formed a small double bottom, but I would not consider this confirmed unless XLE breaks above 82.50. The indicator window shows the XLE:SPY ratio flattening out the last three months as XLE performs inline with the broader market. A break above .40 would signal relative strength in XLE.