Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (ENTA)

[DewDiligence]

Musings on ENTA sell-off: #msg-142738244.

[DewDiligence]

Bear in mind that the threshold for each Mavyret royalty tier is based on the 50% of Mavyret sales attributed to Glecaprevir. E.g., if we say, for the sake of discussion, that the threshold for the second royalty tier is $1B, then it would require $2B of cumulative Mavyret sales for the calendar year to get into that tier.

[DaveAu]

If the second tier is a billion in sales, we should have around 80% of Mav sales at a higher royalty. Any guess as to what the next level is?

[DewDiligence]

#msg-142566750

[DewDiligence]

ABBV/ENTA 2Q18 HCV sales=$973M (+6% QoQ)—$422M US; $551 ex-US:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/abbvie-reports-second-quarter-2018-113800172.html

[DewDiligence]

Poll re 2Q18 Mavyret sales:
https://twitter.com/DewDiligence/status/1020413905552723970

Background info re poll:
https://twitter.com/DewDiligence/status/1020445743893680128

[DewDiligence]

Mavyret's US new-patient share hits 50.5%: #msg-142333374.

[guyschmid]

ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is at 48% (from 49% the prior week) for the week ending 7/6.

[guyschmid]

ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is at 49% (from 49% the prior week) for the week ending 6/29.

[DewDiligence]

Thanks! I just retweeted it.

[DaveAu]

That was the whole post.

Twitter link to what I think was the source but you need a login id to actually read the story:

twitter link

[DewDiligence]

Do you have a link?

[DaveAu]

Rocky made a post on IV a few days ago:

Headline from Japan Pharma email

"Maviret Sweeping Japan Hep C Market, 80% Share Snatched in Just 4 Months?"

[DewDiligence]

Mavyret's NRx share is stuck just below 50% because MRK is hanging in with a 1.9% NRx share (according to IMS).

[guyschmid]

ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is at 49% (from 48% prior week) for the week ending 6/22

[guyschmid]

ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is at 48% (from 49% prior week) for the week ending 6/15.

[DewDiligence]

ENTA’s CFO exercised options and held the resulting shares worth ~$800K:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1177648/000117764818000029/xslF345X03/edgar.xml

These options were due to expire in a few weeks.

[guyschmid]

ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is at 49% (from 47% the previous week) for the week ending 6/8.

[10nisman]

Today's selloff is presumably related to GLMD's NASH data, which is not entirely logical, IMO.

Or profit taking after the 23% rise over the last 4 trading days.

[DewDiligence]

Today's selloff is presumably related to GLMD's NASH data, which is not entirely logical, IMO.

[rajaram46]

thanks Dew

[DewDiligence]

Just the usual minor updates, as far as I can tell.

[rajaram46]

Anything new that caught your eye?

[DewDiligence]

ENTA new corporate slide set:

http://www.enanta.com/files/doc_presentations/2018/06/Corporate-Presentation-June-2018.pdf

[guyschmid]

HCV Weekly NRx Market Share for Week Ending 6/1 (including Holiday on 5/28) Mavyret @ 47%

[DewDiligence]

Please see #msg-141339959.

[rajaram46]

None, that I can find.

[kris_kade]

Any reason for big jump today other than Roth upgrade ?

[willyw]

Gilead wins Chinese approval for Epclusa
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma-asia/gilead-wins-chinese-approval-for-epclusa-but-emerging-market-getting-crowded?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWkdZNFpHUTJZMlE1WmpkaCIsInQiOiJZTGNBT0xCcmtWZVpWVFhEY0wrbnYxc3M1eHdJcTNETXpkOUxcLytkU0dsQ0JWbEZOblhQSWhQYmhMWHRscEhYcU9HR0xsMzBiaHkxOEVUaUo1anVFRzRicjYxQUJEa21zRlJvRHlrRk5md0l6OGU0a0xoVlF3MFY5c3ptZGR5c1MifQ%3D%3D&mrkid=41425082

The question is, how soon will Maviret be approved for China?
Per the article; "Gilead then won approval for Sovaldi in September, the same time AbbVie got its ombitasvir and dasabuvir combo through."
(It's possible this is correct, but I keep thinking that sovaldi is a single drug which FDA approval preceeded the Abbvie 3D program by a year- article suggests 3D program was china approved before Harvoni, and then went straight to Epclusa approval-hmmmmm?!? ~W)

In any case, Epclusa approval (june 2016) preceded Mavyret US approval by over a year. It will be interesting to see how quickly Mavyret gains use in China.

FWIW, the 3D first gen Abbvie program was very effective in the Japanese market and China is comparable in both genetic makeup and in genotype pool. China could be a good market, and if the approval labeling were to be comparable to US and ex-US, it could offer the shortest pan-genotypic cure available to China's 10 million HCV+.

There are 7 more months left in the year. How soon will Maviret be approved in China?

[guyschmid]

ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is 47% (from 47% the prior week) for the week ending 5/25.

[DewDiligence]

Mavyret's market share was essentially flat for the week ending 4/11/18. Actual scripts were slightly down week-over-week for all HCV products.

[JK2016]

any news on scrip market share for last week?

[guyschmid]

ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is at 45% (from 46% the previous week) for the week ending 5/4.

[DewDiligence]

ENTA’s EV ~$1.85B: #msg-140701639.

[DewDiligence]

The FY2Q18 10-Q has been filed:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1177648/000156459018012940/enta-10q_20180331.htm

[DewDiligence]

ENTA new corporate slide set:

http://ir.enanta.com/static-files/1e66f23e-9c99-44ac-a3b9-62d5c5b5a080

[DewDiligence]

Transcript of ENTA FY2Q18 CC:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-enta-earnings-conference-121924601.html

[DewDiligence]

I don't know what the Wall Street consensus EPS was. (I rarely pay attention to such numbers.) However, ENTA's quarterly revenue of $44M was pretty easy to peg given ABBV's announced sales figure for Mavyret. ENTA's R&D expenses and GAAP tax rate were a little better than some people probably expected, which boosted the EPS.

[CricketPie09]

This EPS better/worse than expected? Positive news?

[DewDiligence]

ENTA FY2Q18 results—$44M revenue—EPS=$0.61:

http://ir.enanta.com/news-releases/news-release-details/enanta-pharmaceuticals-reports-financial-results-its-fiscal-14

CC at 4:30pm ET.

[willyw]

Yes, here's to patience and 100.+ share price.

I was a Gilead stock holder in 2013 and rode that stock up based on my results in a trial that same year (for what would become Harvoni). On a Yahoo board I'd seen a post by Kris K about Enanta and this board, and sampled ENTA, and by the time Sovaldi was approved in Dec. 6, I feared a Gild share price drop..... and I sold my remaining Gilead and put it all into ENTA.
It's been a long haul with many ups and dramatic downs too. : )

It's been a good investment, a great forum.
My thanks for the insight I've gained since arriving. I've learned a lot. Many thanks, and cheers.
~W

[10nisman]

It's been a fun ride. Time for a 4-for-1 or 5-for-1 stock split so we can live it all again.

10nis

[vinmantoo]

Yes, ENTA closes over $100!

Few, Thanks for your input as I got into ENTA in the mid-$30s to low $40s.

[guyschmid]

ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is at 46% (from 48% the previous week) for the week ending 4/27.

[DewDiligence]

Yes, I do. But one has to be patient to earn the reward.

[kris_kade]

Dew, can’t help asking..knowing what you know (execution, product potential, market size, IP rights etc.) do you see similar trajectory for RVNC in couple of years ?

Question may be hypothetical but nice to dream for sure :) T.I.A

[DewDiligence]

It was never that low. My first buy was at $17 and change almost 5 years ago: #msg-89490439.

[faxedreceipts]

Hey Dew, I remember when you were talking about this company when the stock price was really low ($5?) . Man, you've made a killing on this one.

[DewDiligence]

Nice! (eom)

[guyschmid]

ABBV's Mavyret weekly NRx market share of the HCV market is at 48% (vs. 44% the prior week) for the week ending 4/20.