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tax loss selling is over ..it seems
You can actually have 10 thousand open interest and everything can go to zero.
Open interest is not really an indication for anything.
currently own almost the half open interest and the lowest I paid was 15 cents and highest 45 cents... Stock price must go up for it to work..not open interest..not spread[
ENTA is on the JPM schedule for Wed Jan 10 at 12:45pm ET.
They haven't made the announcement yet. while several other companies already did. If you're talking about 42nd Annual JPM healthcare conference.
https://www.bing.com/search?q=42nd%20Annual%20J.P.%20Morgan%20Healthcare%20Conference&FORM=ARPSEC&PC=ARPL&PTAG=30165
You can actually have 10 thousand open interest and everything can go to zero... Open interest is not really an indication for anything.. I currently own almost the half open interest and the lowest I paid was 15 cents and highest 45 cents... Stock price must go up for it to work..not open interest..not spread
RVNC options price is more expensive for Jan 10 calls than ENTA even though ENTA stock price almost touched 10 today.
..RVNC options price is more expensive for Jan 10 calls than ENTA even though ENTA stock price almost touched 10 today... And ENTA mgt will have something to say on early Jan. Much more fanfare in RVNC options market than ENTA
tax loss selling is over ..it seems
It should at minimum trade back to cash level given the remaining royalties worth about 200mm
It’s a double from here easily
Added more for 9.4... About to go higher sooon
Jan 10 investor conf could help the price to go up with any positive news
Recent setbacks in T-cell therapy, such as Atara Biosecience's failure in MS, raise questions about the field's overall effectiveness. This could potentially remove a competitor from the RSV space, making ALVR106 more attractive to larger pharmaceutical companies.
ALVR also has an RSV program.
ALVR106 is an allogeneic, off-the-shelf, multi-virus specific T-cell therapy candidate designed to target human metapneumovirus (hMPV), influenza, parainfluenza virus (PIV), and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).
Recent setbacks in T-cell therapy, such as Atara Biosecience's failure in MS, raise questions about the field's overall effectiveness. This could potentially remove a competitor from the RSV space, making ALVR106 more attractive to larger pharmaceutical companies.
ALVR’s failed program was not for COVID:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/12/22/2800535/0/en/AlloVir-Provides-Updates-on-Phase-3-Clinical-Development-Program-for-Posoleucel-an-Allogeneic-Virus-Specific-T-Cell-Therapy.html
…posoleucel, an investigational off-the-shelf multi-virus-specific T cell therapy, which targets six viral pathogens in immunocompromised individuals: adenovirus (AdV), BK virus (BKV), cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human herpesvirus-6 (HHV-6) and JC virus (JCV).
ALVR failed in Phase 3. How does it affect ENTA? I think one more less competition. Do we have a chance to do some deals with Gilead Sciences?
I know a lot of people that have received all of the COVID vaccines and recently had COVID. All of them, especially seniors, were dissatisfied that they did not receive a prescription. All of the cases that I have known of have resolved or are on the mend without complication, but I do not understand why ENTA's potential treatment is just sitting around when the reason for not prescribing the current SOC seems to be due to possible interactions with the meds that most seniors utilize daily. I mean, really - we saw an EUA for an antibody therapy against COVID, but nobody can do anything with ENTA's small molecule drug.
market does not actually think from time to time.
Otherwise, you won’t have name trading at 50x sales
And today it got hit - again with no news. Looks like tax selling is not over yet. Only 6 more trading days.
When the challenge results for the first RSV antiviral were announced the stock quickly tanked and most of the publicity called the trial a failure. I agree that the market value is at all time lows, but I am cautious because selling ENTA for year end tax losses indicates that there is not much belief that any of those "free shots" are going to pan-out in the near future, i.e., there is a belief that there is plenty of time to make purchases of ENTA after first profiting form other near term purchases.
I bought on the positive news of the first RSV challenge study, I already had an accumulation of shares going back as far as 2015; I was baffled when all of the negative responses to the challenge study were vocalized.
That is my sad, sad story. I continue to have a lot of hope for Enanta, but my new expectations are that I have spent enough money, I am still faithful to my belief that the company is quite valuable far beyond my average cost, and I accept that any new investments for me are likely better spent on other equities which have demonstrated better trends in response to positive news.
Merry, Merry,
Sinking-and-Stinking-On-Positive-News
I have been buying
Not hard to add as it is trading so much below cash value with multiple free shots to much higher valuation.
"ENTA with a nice jump today on no news,"
And today it got hit - again with no news. Looks like tax selling is not over yet. Only 6 more trading days.
Interesting. Word is getting out.
🚀 Get ready to be amazed! The potential of $ENTA is unparalleled. Time to rethink your strategy and see why $ENTA stands out from the crowd. Move over $TSLA, $PLTR, $NVDA, $QQQ - there's a new game-changer in town! #InvestmentOpportunity #MarketShaker 😎 pic.twitter.com/Ct01tXR73V
— FACT CAT (@factcatpoll) December 16, 2023
Thanks Dew and DC15 for the heads up and the link. EDP-323 is now up at bat with a study completion date in mid 2024. I assume we will hear about the new drug candidates ENTA is working on before that.
This is the trial listing:
https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06170242
The RSV Challenge study has posted to CT.gov. It indicates that the first subject has enrolled, this does not necessarily mean that the first subject has been treated, and it would not matter because the study is double blinded so we wouldn't know if the subject got the drug or placebo.
ENTA with a nice jump today on no news, well except that the FED isn't going to raise interest rates. The volume isn't very heavy so I hope this isn't just another head fake with a drop tomorrow. It would be nice to see a follow up in the rest of December, perhaps as part of a much mentioned Santa Claus rally.
With the SGEN buyout being finalized tomorrow I will have a nice chunk of cash to invest. I will put a bit more money into ENTA, RVNC and EXEL. The latter is in my view a good take over target but it will be nice to see a follow up in the rest of December. Also wondering if the PFE downturn is overkill.
Anyone adding? Or all waiting for tax selling to end?
From the latest webcast, it seems like they might have more than one new focus area coming up next year. I thought it would be just one
I like the idea, but I think it's more likely that the situation is more similar to Enanta's; it's harder now to show differentiation in a weaker form of the virus and with the current aggregate of people with natural immunity and/or vaccine derived immunity.
As to the effect of the lawsuit, IF the Enanta case shows merit and Pfizer has to pay Enanta some amount of money it could finance a possible self funded third phase trial of EDP-235, which could impact sales of Paxlovid or impact further sales of ANY covid antivirals. Following that thought, it could also explain reluctance to partner with Enanta to develop EDP-235 in phase 3 trials (what if Pfizer wins the suit?)
It's a separate question as to whether Enanta's or Pfizer's new compound is best. We may never know.
Likewise if Pfizer doesn't develop their new compound we won't know about that outcome.
As with a swine flu or avian flu they often just go away, and resurface again.
Yet COVID (they say) will always be with us and there remains a possibility that a more threatening form will resurface- and when it does it may again reappear in groups that have lost the natural and vaccine derived immunity. Higher lethality?
It's possible either COVID antivirus could be on hold until such a time that its more fiscally sound to continue trials. Some bean counter with have to decide that OR a re-emergence of a more lethal form may make it a no-brainer.
I'm just sitting on the sidelines waiting and hoping. : )
Wonder if it’s anything related to the ongoing litigation?
Still no news about Pfizer's second generation Covid 19 drug. The primary completion date for the phase 2 trial was Sept 13 2023 and the actual completion date was Oct 11th.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05799495?term=PF-07817883&rank=5
https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05799495?term=PF-07817883&rank=5
Enanta: Multiple Shots On Goal For RSV Makes This A Must Watch
Nov. 30, 2023 3:34 PM ETEnanta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ENTA)PFE
Terry Chrisomalis profile picture
Terry Chrisomalis
Investing Group Leader
Summary
Two mid-stage studies RSVHR and RSVPEDs are being advanced using EDP-938 for RSV; data from at least one of these studies expected Q3 of 2024.
Data to be released from phase 2a challenge study, using L-protein inhibitor EDP-323, expected in Q3 of 2024.
It is expected that the global Respiratory Syncytial Virus market is expected to reach $4.20 billion by 2027.
The company has enough cash to fund its operations until fiscal 2027 and has the option to raise additional funds through a mixed shelf offering.
ENTA’s pro forma net cash @9/30/23=$200.6M—treating ENTA’s deferred-royalty obligations as debt (as is done under GAAP [#msg-172603887]—but see note at bottom of this post). The $200.6M figure, which is down $20.6M relative to 6/30/23, consists of:
• $360.0M net current assets on the 9/30/22 balance sheet (https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001177648/000095017023065884/enta-20230930.htm#consolidated_balance_sheets );
• ($159.4M) deferred long-term liabilities on the 9/30/23 balance sheet relating to the OMERS royalty agreement. ($35.1M of liabilities relating to the OMERS agreement are booked as current liabilities and hence are included in the $360.0M figure in the first bulleted item.)
Note: Excluding the “debt” associated with the OMERS royalty agreement, ENTA’s pro forma net cash at 9/30/23 was $394.1M ($200.6M + $159.4M + $35.1M).
ENTA’s fully-diluted share count @9/30/23=26.0M—a decrease of 0.1M since 6/30/23.
The 26.0M figure above consists of: 21.06 basic shares on the 9/30/23 balance sheet (https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001177648/000095017023065884/enta-20230930.htm#consolidated_balance_sheets ); and 4.94M options and unvested restricted-stock shares and equivalents (whether or not exercisable) (ibid, page F-13).
must be tough for Luly, his 800k shares used to worth around 70 millions at peak.. now it's 7 millions. And he is 65 years old? I would think he would love an exit.
Good for them all the other options are way out of the money at the moment
Somebody did management a favor today, deliberately or not, insofar as newly issued stock options granted to ENTA’s executive officers were priced at today’s close.
That's correct. Today’s S-3 filing supersedes the S-3ASR filing from 8/9/21 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1177648/000156459021042633/enta-s3asr.htm ). For technical reasons, ENTA is no longer able to use an S-3ASR registration, but an S-3 works essentially the same way.
Notably, the $100M ATM with Jefferies, which was tied to the 8/9/21 shelf registration and was never tapped, is now defunct.
It looks like this is just a replacement for the 2021 shelf
https://ir.enanta.com/node/12286/html
Almost every small bio keeps an active shelf as a matter of course
Not going to sell any at 11 or 9. The company has potential to worth much more - and with potential buyout, settlement, partnership, upcoming
With the cash (~15and royalty steam - it has next to zero downside risk in term of terminal value.
This 200M is a special kind of debt bc of the virtually guaranteed coverage from the royalty stream. If the fund who “loaned “ the 200M doesn’t want to assume the “debt” of enta goes belly up any number of suitors would take on the debt for the royalty in whole or at 90 cents on the dollar in a heartbeat.
So in this case the lowering f shareholder value because of this accounting maneuver is not as relevant as it normally would be IMO
Good for you in timing your sale. Happy thxgiving
I remember a time of great discontent upon any declaration of information which was readily accessible from the day's chart, alas there is recognition that recapitulation of the otherwise obvious can help one to persevere.
One of the things from your summary of the quarter that is missing is the annual decrease in shareholder equity - down to $216,735K from $321,334K last year. With the decreased expenses projected next year, the reduction should be less, but if the loss from operations is still $80M, instead of $133M, net worth might be ~$135M after 09/24.
I still think net worth is much more important than cash to analyze financial health. The "debt" has to be paid back. It will be paid (out of the future cash flow), just like any kind of other borrowing.
I took yesterday's rally as an opportunity to sell 1/2 my position (obviously should have sold all). Other people's tax selling may hold down the price for the next 5-6 weeks.
The move yesterday didn't make much sense, the move today doesn't either - it ends up as a wash as the traders have fun with this
I do think the rationale for trading below cash has to be mitigated bc of the low burn, which will further decrease substantially as the phase 2s wrap up. At that point ENTA will still have way more cash than the current market cap, and either good data to then ramp up to phase 3, partner, etc. (and they can then monetize the remainer of the royalty and have more cash in one years time than they have now even), or the data is a dud and spending drops to a crawl with no clinical drugs to progress. It also appears the lawsuit will be at a critical juncture by then too
so between now and 9-12 months from now the traders can have their fun
I find it a stretch to think preclinical candidates to be announced early next year can move things much but you never know every now and then you can get excitement for a very early stage drug but that is unusual (e.g. BMY paying 800M for a preclinical IDO)
I remember a time of great discontent upon any declaration of information which was readily accessible from the day's chart, alas there is recognition that recapitulation of the otherwise obvious can help one to persevere.
Welcome to table.
Easy come, easy go as ENTA gives back most of yesterday’s gains.
Given the buildup in anticipation Jay Luly has created for the announcement of ENTA's new therapeutic areas in January, I doubt that MASLD (f/k/a NAFLD) fits the bill since it's an area ENTA has previously worked in.
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