Emisphere Technologies Inc. (fka EMIS)

[ronpopeil]

Approved

[DEVJ]

Catty...Based on a 6 month expedited review period (via a Priority Review Voucher), the FDA should report "yea or nay" by 9/20/19 (today); however, some speculate the 6 month time frame is not a hard-and-fast rule. So we wait with fingers crossed

[catty]

DEVJ. know when? Thought it was supposed to be this week Thx.

[DEVJ]

Hopefully Novo receives approval and we have no ugly surprises. Given Novo's preparations and significant spending I believe OS will be approved; however I won't breath a sigh of relief until it's in-writing

[catty]

lucas: appreciate your keeping me posted. thanks

[catty]

lucas: thanks - I've done well with EMIS (so far)

[lucasreynard]

No, waiting pattern. Should hear this week about FDA approval.

[catty]

Any new developments to report? TIA

[lucasreynard]

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/novo-s-ozempic-launch-kicks-into-gear-ahead-oral-semaglutide-fda-decision

[lucasreynard]

No problem

[catty]

lucas: appreciate your feedback. How encouraging. I can wait. Mind if I check with you periodically?

[lucasreynard]

$20 but originally was $10. I’m in a wait and see really think we could see $30, Novo is investing significantly in this and has studies going to 2024 plus they just purchased another priority review voucher so interesting time ahead.

[catty]

lucas: thanks. Do u have a target price? could be ballpark.

[lucasreynard]

No way to know but Novo just had a pretty bullish conference call and earnings press release. They said they expect approval by 9/20.

[catty]

lucas: could it be earlier - stock acting strong? Thx.

[catty]

thanks lucas

[lucasreynard]

Novo filed for approval in Japan, not much else. Waiting for Sept or earlier FDA approval.

[catty]

Any new developments?

[catty]

anyone: anything interesting to report?

[catty]

DEVJ: appreciate your detailed evaluation. Keep it coming.

[DEVJ]

I have no crystal ball, but I believe we're still in the early innings. Novo will be pushing OS hard for diabetes and possibly other indications, and Emis could/should be cash-flow positive later this year. Emis is still relatively unknown but will receive more attention as Novo succeeds with OS (more publicity this Tuesday when Novo presents OS in San Francisco). Emis s.p. will be volatile just like any other quickly-moving or speculative stock, and yes, it's hard to stomach those 10-20% drops, but I believe the s.p. will move higher even if not financially justified at this moment. This of course assumes nothing catastrophically negative happens (i.e., OS is not approved).

If Novo successfully moves forward with other indications or Emis finds additional partners or Emis up-lists to a new exchange, then the s.p. should benefit significantly. This also assumes Emis is not purchased or purchased at some low valuation.

What is a reasonable valuation? A very simple model could be gross sales / share count. If Novo achieves $5B in OS sales, then Emis receives $125M. $125M divided by 150 million shares equals $.83/share in earnings. $.83 x 15 (P.E.) equals $12.5 s.p. Of course the $125 million in royalties (probably) won't be achieved immediately, so some discount should be applied to the s.p. initially. Is 15 a good multiple for this type of business? It's a guess; since some biotechs / medical companies trade at lower multiples and some trade at much higher multiples.

My guess is that Emis will trade at a s.p. that is in excess of a reasonable / rational valuation (at least for the immediate future). It is after all trading on speculation as to what may (or could / or should) happen at some point in the future.

[catty]

some profit taking. expected. however, holding well

[lucasreynard]

I do agree that stock is getting a little rich but FDA approval in 4 months, potential CVT approval 8 months. Novo is already working on improved formulation, they are starting lot’s of studies for obesity, kidney and retina problems, etc so Novo really sees this as a potential wonder drug. Also, EMA, Canadian approvals are in pipeline.

[ttottip]

Buying at these levels means you have to have very strong guts.

[catty]

In response to Glenrice's post, I'd love to hear some responses. TIA

[glenrice67]

Unlike most stocks I comment on here, EMIS isn't garbage that ends up at zero, but

Current fully diluted market cap - $1.5 billion.
Current market cap with just shares outstanding - $840 million

Assuming approval of GLP-1 and $5 billion in sales in 2020 (no chance whatsoever of that happening but want to paint the best scenario), Emisphere would only bring in 2.5% of that or $125 million. The stock is priced for basically everything to go right and to be a home run.

Approval is still 6 months away. The stock is priced for perfection. Nobody can buy this company with their goofy balance sheet not fully reporting. Without catalysts and a stock that is overvalued, it seems pretty likely the air will pop out of the balloon once momentum traders reverse course.

[catty]

good move catty!!!!!!!

[catty]

DEVJ: I'm adding more tomorrow. And then go for a Big Mac. Love their fries.

U put a small on my face.

[DEVJ]

Catty.....Yes, I know you're in at $2, so at this point you should be up enough to go to McDonalds a few (thousand) times You go girl!

[catty]

PS: I got in at $2

[catty]

DEVJ - your guestimates are good enough for me. thx.

[DEVJ]

Catty, I'm looking for $20. We have yet to receive significant revenue, and Novo has several more significant milestones in the near future, so I believe the price is going substantially higher barring any unexpected negative events. If Emis were to land ANY other partnerships, I believe we would pass $25. However, keep in mind stocks can be bid-up irrationally and beyond fair value (happens all the time), so this could well exceed $30.

All this assumes a buyout of some sort doesn't occur any time soon. If a buyout were to occur, I still think we could realize $20; since I don't believe MHR would accept less.

Of course please realize this is just my guesstimates.

[catty]

DEVJ: adding more tomorrow

[catty]

DEVJ: appreciate your detailed reply. Sounds good. Am tempted to add. Do u have any target price?

[DEVJ]

Catty....probably a number of reasons; however, Novo is really publicizing the benefits and potential benefits of Semagultide. Novo is investigating multiple other indications for Semalutide, and it is being presented as somewhat of a wonder drug. The increased awareness of the medical community, and the investment community of the potential for Semaglutide is probably leading to increased focus on Novo (and Emis).

Also some people probably just trade based on charts, and right now Emis's chart looks very nice. Additionally, word of mouth could very well be bringing more investors into Emis, and the trading is still so thin, that a few thousand extra shares purchased can move the needle significantly.

Much discussion about this on S.A and Yahoo Conversations.

[catty]

any feed back as to why it's acting so strong? Thx.

[catty]

PS: I just listened. Don't know how u tracked it down. They never took questions.

[catty]

lucas thx

[lucasreynard]

You need to forward to the 28 min mark.

Milestone payments will come with FDA and MMA approvals, possible new agreement in 6 to 12 months, and still exploring an agreement for B12

[catty]

lucas: thanks, but all I get is music. Was it positive?

[lucasreynard]

You can listen to it as it’s still available. Go to about 28 min mark for start

https://east.virtualshareholdermeeting.com/vsm/web?pvskey=EMIS2019

[catty]

Did anyone figure it out and listened in? The guidance must have been positive because the stock keeps creeping up.

[catty]

alternate: Just checked Ameritrade - they have no record of it. Strange.

[catty]

Just spoke with them Was advised that we have to call our brokerage firm to get a control number.

[alternatepatel]

it came as a EMIS report from Ameritrade

As weird as it can get...I am using Interactive Brokers and received no information / invitation for the meeting.

When u open the link: https://east.virtualshareholdermeeting.com/vsm/web?pvskey=EMIS2019 , it says u will need a control number to log in !

I sent a mail to IR, but no reply as usual. It would be very helpful if someone here can download / record the webcast. I doubt EMIS will post a replay of the webcast on their website :-#

[catty]

They must be expecting good news because the stock is acting very well, especially in a very down day

[catty]

Well it's tomorrow: 10AM EST

[catty]

alternate: How stupid of ne. I got the dates mixed up. It's not until May 30th at 10AM.

[alternatepatel]

Ok. But even if somebody is able to login, there would be no content as the meeting is scheduled for May 30th.

I believe the link would allow login approx 20 minutes before the meeting starts ( as the pop-up note says ).

Can u please (or some1 else) call IR guy and ask why they haven't listed the event on their website ? Will there be a replay webcast made available ?

TIA

[catty]

alternate: This was what I referring to. If I said call, it was a mistake. I couldn't log on. Did u? If so, any feedback would be welcomed. Thanks.