Elliott Wave TRIGGERS and TARGETS

[TREND1]

Sorry. Do not do options.
But send Tony and email and ask him.
Let us know what he says ...

Here is his email address
[e-mail]

[Rivers 1]

Are OE weeks taken into consideration by folks like Tony C. ?

It seems that little is said any more regarding OE weeks. Why?

TIA!

[TREND1]

weekend update by tony caldaro
REVIEW

The bull market that has been full of surprises dropped another one this week. Early in the week the Tech indices, NDX/NAZ, confirmed downtrends. Ending a three month uptrend in those indices. The Cyclical indices, SPX/DOW, continued higher into October with the DOW making a new bull market high. However, they too are weakening now. For the week the SPX/DOW were -2.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were -3.10%. Asian markets lost 1.1%, European markets lost 1.9%, and the DJ World index lost 2.0%. On the economic front things continue to improve: positive reports out numbered negatives ones 8 to 1. On the downtick: the Trade deficit expanded. On the uptick: wholesale inventories, export/import prices, consumer sentiment, the WLEI, the PPI, a Budget surplus, and weekly Jobless claims declined. Next week we get a look at Housing, Industrial production and Retail sales.

LONG TERM: bull market

On the economic front things continue to improve. This week alone weekly Jobless claims were reported at their lowest level since early 2008. Consumer sentiment reached its highest level since late 2007 - before the great recession. Plus the WLEI has been rising for about a year, and is now at its highest level in about 18 months. Apparently the Central Bank liquidity programs are finally filtering down to the 99%.


The 2009 bull market continues to make progress, but appears to have run into some headwinds this week. While the NDX/NAZ have been flirting with a downtrend confirmation the past week or so. They actually confirmed one this week. With the Tech indices trending downwards, selling pressure is now on the Cyclicals. Currently, it looks like the SPX/DOW are likely to follow and confirm a downtrend as well. The weekly RSI has now declined below neutral, after getting quite overbought. This usually indicates a correction is underway. We would now place the probabilities of this occurring at 60%/40%. While a downtrend may change the medium term picture with a correction. The long term uptrend is still underway.

The weekly chart displays the 2002-2007 bull market, the 2007-2009 bear market, and the current bull market. We have been labeling this market as five Primary waves within a Cycle wave [1] bull market. Primary waves I and II ended in 2011 at SPX 1371 and SPX 1075 respectively. Primary wave III has been underway since that low. Primary wave I divided into five Major waves, with Major 1 subdividing into five Intermediate waves. Primary wave III appears to be following the same wave pattern. Major wave 1 subdivided into five Intermediate waves and concluded in May at SPX 1422/17. After a Major wave 2 correction to SPX 1267, Major wave 3 was underway. Recently Major wave 3 hit SPX 1475/71 in Sept/Oct - a new bull market high.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy

The uptrend, off the Major 2 low in early June, has run into some trouble this week. We have been counting its rise as an extended Major wave 3. Near its beginning we anticipated this uptrend would last from late Q2 into Q4 and reach the OEW 1499 pivot. Thus far it has advanced from SPX 1267 to SPX 1475. In recent weeks we suggested the possibility of SPX 1523/27, or even higher, once the 1499 pivot was cleared. Thus far 1499 has not been reached.

During the uptrend we counted four completed Intermediate waves: Int. one SPX 1363, Int. two SPX 1309, Int. three SPX 1475, Int. four SPX 1431 and Int. five underway. Just last friday the SPX rallied to 1471, while the DOW made a new uptrend high at 13,662.

This week, both the SPX and DOW have come under selling pressure, while the NDX/NAZ confirmed downtrends. If the four month uptrend did end in the Cyclicals last friday. The bellwether DOW completed its five waves up, while the SPX had another fifth wave failure. Just another example of keeping an eye on the DOW, when trading the SPX. Medium term support is now at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots.

SHORT TERM

Short term support is at SPX 1422/27 and SPX 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum ended the week just above oversold. The short term OEW charts remain in a negative bias from SPX 1456 with the swing level now around 1442.

The decline from the recent SPX 1471 has already reached 45 points at SPX 1426. This is the largest decline since mid-July, when Minor wave 2 ended. Typically, in this bull market, fourth waves have been smaller than second waves. This decline now exceeds Minor 4 (30 pts), and the 44 point decline we labeled Intermediate iv. This looks like something more than just a pullback, and is not a good sign medium term.

Should we get a SPX/DOW downtrend confirmation, this entire uptrend was likely Intermediate wave i of Major 3. Not the entire Major 3. This would suggest Major 3 of Primary III is also subdividing, just like the Major wave 1's. Then the next important support levels would then be in the mid-1390's and the 1363 pivot. There are several other possibilities at this time. But nothing can be determined until the downtrend is confirmed, or the market surges to new highs. This tricky, at times, bull market continues.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mixed on the week for a net loss of 1.1%. Japan confirmed a downtrend after a diagonal triangle uptrend.

The European markets were all lower for a net loss of 1.9%. No downtrend confirmations yet.

The Commodity equity group were all lower on the week for a net loss of 1.0%. No downtrend confirms here as well.

The DJ World index lost 2.0% on the week and has not confirmed a downtrend.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in a choppy downtrend but gained 0.3% on the week.

Crude is still in a downtrend, but did find support with the positive divergence and gained 1.8% on the week.

Gold continues to look like it has started a downtrend, losing 1.6% on the week.

The USD may have bottomed at its first attempt at DXY 79 support. It gained 0.4% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Monday kicks off the economic week with Retail sales and the NY FED at 8:30, then Business inventories at 10:00. Tuesday: the CPI, Industrial production and the NAHB housing index. Wednesday: Housing starts and Building permits. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, the Philly FED and Leading indicators. Then on friday Existing home sales. As for the FED. FED chairman Bernanke will give a speech on sunday in Japan. Best to your week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[TREND1]

TheWaveTrading | Fri, Oct 12, 2012

¦Price is involved in unfolding a corrective pattern from the September 14 high.

If price breaks the 1430 - 1422 key support layer then the current corrective EWP should at least extend towards the target = 1397 - 1395. I consider it a likely outcome.


¦Once price reaches the mentioned target and we have positive divergences then price should attempt to resume the intermediate up trend.
¦If price fails to establish a bottom then the next likely potential reversal zone is located in the range of the rising trend line support in force since the October 2011 lows and the 0.5 retracement of June's up leg where we also have the 200 d MA = 1370.

Since yesterday price negated an impulsive sequence from the October 5 lower high, the overall EWP is getting more complex and probably the final target will be closer to 1396 than 1370.

Keep in mind that in addition to the planning of Mr. Bernanke, October is usually a month where important bottoms are established.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/27282/spx-follow-up-of-the-short-term-ewp

[TREND1]

friday update
by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: pullback/correction continues, DOW +2

Overnight the Asian markets were relatively flat. Europe opened lower and lost 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the PPI was reported positive: +1.1% vs +1.7%. The market opened unchanged from yesterday's SPX 1433 close. In the first hour of trading it dipped negative, then rallied to SPX 1438. At 10:00 Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 83.1 vs 78.3. Then the market started to pullback. Around noon the SPX hit 1426, right in the 1422/27 support range, and then tried to rally. At 3:00 the Gov't reported a Budget surplus: +$75 bln vs -$62.8 bln, which was expected. Right around this time the SPX hit 1431 and pulled back into a 1429 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude slid 30 cents, Gold dropped $13, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 55.7% vs 54.7%.

The market opened flat today for the third time this week. Then after a rally attempt it headed lower, making a new low for this pullback at SPX 1426. This market has now declined 45 points from last friday's SPX 1471 high. This is the biggest pullback since the mid-July 51 point pullback (SPX 1380-1329). The largest pullback of the entire uptrend is 54 points.

***** Unless we see a turnaround soon in this market, we'll likely get a downtrend confirmation - ending the uptrend from early June.

Probabilities favor a downtrend 60%/40%. More in the weekend update.

Short term support remains at SPX 1422/27 and SPX 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum hit oversold today and then bounced slightly. The short term OEW charts remain negatively biased with the swing level now around SPX 1442. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy
LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[TREND1]

TONY_D_MID_TERM

[euterpe1]

Chart you made would indicate 1420 support.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&b=5&g=0&id=p79919010520&a=102607533

[RCKS]

Pretzel charts:

[TREND1]

thursday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: market gaps up then fades, DOW -19

After yesterday's close FED governor Tarullo's speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/tarullo20121010a.htm. Overnight Asian markets gained 0.3%. Early this morning FED vice chair Yellen's speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20121011a.htm. European markets opened lower but gained 1.1%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 339K vs 367K. The lowest level since February 2008. Also at 8:30 Export prices (+0.7% vs +0.4%) and Import prices (+0.2% vs -0.2%) were reported higher. Plus the Trade deficit expanded: -$44.2 bln vs -$42.0 bln. After all that the market gapped up at the open to SPX 1441, traded within a two point range, then continued to rally. At 11:00 the SPX hit 1444, touched slightly overbought, and then began to pullback. The pullback lasted all afternoon, and the market completely closed the upside gap with a SPX 1433 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude rose $1.20, Gold gained $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI at 8:30, Consumer sentiment at 10:00, then the Budget deficit at 2:00.

The market gapped up at the open today, possibly responding to the short term positive divergence in place yesterday, reaching the OEW 1440 pivot. Then after an hour and a half of trading the market started to pullback when it could not clear the pivot's upper range. After a 3 day 40 point decline, the market just had its first significant rally SPX 1431-1444. But when the SPX pulled back this afternoon most of that rally was retraced.

A pullback like this, during an uptrend, is quite normal. We had several of them over the past four months. But none of them occurred with the NDX/NAZ confirming downtrends, and a potentially completed five waves up in the DOW.

***** Probabilities are now 55%/45% that the SPX/DOW will confirm as downtrend soon. Should this occur we could see a correction into early November, with a decline possibly to the 1363 OEW pivot.


Long term this does nothing to impact the bull market.

*****Medium term a slight modification would be required in the wave degree of the recent uptrend, and potential downtrend.

Short term support remains at SPX 1422/27 and SPX 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum hit slightly overbought today then declined below neutral. The short term OEW charts remain negatively biased with the swing level now around SPX 1446. Best to your trading!

Note. Since we received many inquiries on the NDX count and APPL's count we decided to completely review APPL's bull market. After a careful review we updated the count and posted it. As for the NDX, we realigned it with the SPX/DOW counts since it was giving many the wrong impression. We maintained the alternate count we had posted on the NAZ charts. Hopefully this will clear up many questions.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[RCKS]

No Pretzel today

[TREND1]

wednesday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: pullback or correction, DOW -129

Overnight the Asian markets declined 1.0%. European markets opened lower and closed -0.5%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight and opened unchanged at SPX 1441. After a tick up to SPX 1442 the market pulled back to 1437 by 10:00. At 10:00 Wholesale inventories were reported positive: +0.5% vs +0.7%. The market then tried to rally but could only gain 6 points, to SPX 1443, by 10:30. Another pullback followed, breaking through the OEW 1440 pivot range, and hitting SPX 1431 by 1:00. Another rally attempt followed. At 2:00 the FED released its Beige book: http://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/beigebook201210.htm. Right after the report the SPX hit 1435, retested 1431 by 3:30, then bounced to 1433 at the close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.45%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude slid $1.00, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was lower.


***** Medium term support drops to the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance now at the 1440 and 1499 pivots.
After the close there is a speech from FED governor Tarullo. Overnight there is also a speech from FED vice chair Yellen in Japan. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless claims, Export/Import prices and the Trade deficit all at 8:30. Then another speech at 10:00 from FED governor Stein.

The market opened flat today, at yesterday's low tick close, then continued lower. By 1:00 the SPX had broken below the OEW 1440 pivot range and hit 1431, the Intermediate wave iv low. This three day decline has now retraced the entire rally from SPX 1431 to 1471. During the decline the biggest rally has only been six points. That happened early today between SPX 1437 and 1443, as the market tried to hold the 1440 pivot.

Some could consider this last decline completing a flat from the Intermediate wave iii high at SPX 1475: 1431-1471-1431. The problem with this count is the Tech sector, NDX/NAZ, is downtrending. It would be quite unusual for the cyclicals to continue higher without some support of the tech/growth sector. When we review the bellwether DOW charts we observe a recent new high: 13,662 vs 13,653. This suggests this last rally could have completed a weak Intermediate wave v on friday, ending the uptrend from the early June low. This morning we posted some tentative green labels, on the SPX/DOW, suggesting the four month uptrend has ended. Should this be correct, this was quite a weak uptrend ending following the FED's QE 3 announcement just a few weeks ago.

Short term support is now at SPX 1422/27 and SPX 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum displays a positive divergence. The short term OEW charts remain in the negative mode with the swing level now at SPX 1448. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[RCKS]

Pretzel chart:

[michael03332002]

would it surprise anyone that IF the markets are somewhat controlled, it would be good ammo if when Romney is showing a lead in the polls to force the market down, would make good talking points IMHO

M

[TREND1]

TONY_SHORT_TERM Should the market drop below SPX 1422 the uptrend is probably over.
.

[TREND1]

tuesday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: market pullback extends, DOW -110

Overnight the Asian markets were flat. European markets opened higher but closed -0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, but drifted lower entering the open. At the open the SPX traded at 1454, two points below yesterday's 1456 close. After a bounce to SPX 1456 in the opening minutes the market headed lower. Just before noon the SPX hit 1442, became extremely oversold and tried to rally. At 1:30 the FED issued the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20121009a.htm. At 3:00 the SPX had only rallied 5 points to 1447 and then headed lower again. Just before the close the SPX hit 1441 where it ended the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.55%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude rallied $2.85, Gold slid $11, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: Wholesale inventories at 10:00, then the Budget deficit and the FED's Beige book at 2:00. After the close a speech from FED governor Tarullo.

The market opened lower today, led by the Techs, and continued lower to test the OEW 1440 pivot range - medium term support. This two day decline, from friday's SPX 1471 high to today's 1441 low, is much larger than the two previous pullbacks of 14 and 18 points. While the SPX/DOW are both holding support, the NDX/NAZ did not and confirmed downtrends today. We are now in either a fragmented market, or the uptrend ended last friday. The OEW 1440 pivot range now takes on more significance, as does the SPX 1422/27 support area.


*****Should the market drop below SPX 1422 the uptrend is probably over.


Short term support is at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold this morning, bounced, and is now displaying a very slight positive divergence. The short term OEW charts swung into negative mode shortly after the open, with the swing level now around SPX 1452. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[TREND1]

monday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: gap down opening starts the week, DOW -27

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.6%. European markets opened higher but lost 0.9%. US index futures were lower overnight as well, and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 1455. The SPX had closed at 1461 on friday. After an hour of choppy action the SPX drifted up to 1457 by 10:30, then pulled back to 1453 by noon. A rally attempt followed, but the market only managed to reach SPX 1458 in the last hour of trading. Then it pulled back to close at SPX 1456.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.80%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude slipped 20 cents, Gold slid $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. This is nothing on the economic/FED schedule tomorrow.

The market gapped down today for the first time since the end of September. That gap down marked an important low: SPX 1436. After hitting the SPX 1453 low around noon, the market tried to close the gap at SPX 1461, but came up short. We still see the above mentioned SPX 1436 low as the end of Minor wave 2, and a subdividing Minor wave 3 underway. This short term count remains in effect unless the October low, at SPX 1439, is exceeded to the downside.

Short term support remains at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum hit oversold today and then bounced. The short term OEW charts tested support today at SPX 1453 and held.

A positive bias remains with the swing level now SPX 1454.


Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[GLENO34]

TREND..Thanks..Yes I get his reports...Can't argue with the numbers I guess...Ask Jack Welch... :)

[TREND1]

SPX_60_PRETZEL_SHORT_TERM
Be aware that until 1450 and 1439 are claimed by the bears, we can't rule out new swing highs following directly, and trade back above 1471 from here would suggest bulls have several more sessions of strength left in them -- if not more."

PRETZEL also says a trade above 1474.51 would be bullish.
My comment...Any TA would agree.

[RCKS]

Pretzel view & charts (3):

"Near-term prospects may now be shifting into the bears' favor, so I've outlined a series of key levels to watch on the S&P 500 (SPX). Be aware that until 1450 and 1439 are claimed by the bears, we can't rule out new swing highs following directly, and trade back above 1471 from here would suggest bulls have several more sessions of strength left in them -- if not more."

[RCKS]

I will thanks

[TREND1]

RCKS
Found this very interesting SPX_M EWAVE chart.
NOTE: The words over lap after 2009 ....
and therefore corrective.
Take a look ...
.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=80298113

[TREND1]

sent to [e-mail]

Now following you on IHUB.
see first post at

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=80291483

[TREND1]

TheWaveTrading
This EWAVER up dates every day
.

http://www.safehaven.com/author/607/thewavetrading
.
Author: TheWaveTrading

TheWaveTrading

Contact: If you would like to contact the author, you can e-mail him at [e-mail]

The main objective of this project is to share my views on several markets and asset classes.

In the initial stage TWT website will be a free service.

My main focus will be the equity market with SPX being the leader but I will also follow US equity sectors, major European indices, fixed income, currencies and commodities markets.

My analysis is based upon traditional Technical Analysis, Elliot Wave guidelines and investor sentiment.

My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on the long and short side and mainly with leveraged ones (2 x & 3 x).

The advantage of ETF investments is that it allows getting involved in equity indices & sectors, currencies, fixed income, commodities etc.

Therefore the main purpose of TWT will be to establish investment strategies regardless if the market is in an up trend or in a down trend, leveraging the chosen scenario while managing the risk by establishing protective stop losses.

Hence I will always define the risk, I will try to let winners run the wave and I will cut the losses if my strategy is wrong.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is for educational purposes only, the information supplied is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.

Thewavetrading.com nor the owner can not be held responsible for any loses occurred from the information provided within the website.

The Information supplied cannot be copied or reproduced without the permission from the owner.

Copyright 2011-2012 TheWaveTrading

[TREND1]

SPX_D_TONY_MID_TERM

[TREND1]

weekend update by tony caldaro
REVIEW

An interesting week. The market open higher every day this week, then sold off for the rest of the day. Except on wednesday and thursday it continued higher. Despite this choppy activity the DOW made a new bull market high, as the SPX/DOW were +1.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.55%. Asian markets gained 0.9%, European markets gained 3.2%, and the DJ World index was +1.6%. Economic reports remained on the positive side, with upticks outpacing downticks seven to four. On the downtick: construction spending, factory orders, the monetary base, and jobless claims increased. On the uptick: ISM manufacturing/services, the ADP index, Payrolls, consumer credit, the WLEI, and the unemployment rate declined. Next week we get a look at the FED's Beige book and the twin deficits.

LONG TERM: bull market

For the past three and a half years investors have remained bearish-neutral, consumers have remained negative, and even the economy has looked like it was heading back into a recession twice. Yet the US stock market has continued to rise from its March 2009 low at SPX 667 to a recent high of SPX 1475. Recently consumers have remained negative, investors are back to neutral, but the economy is rebounding again. Typically, nearing bull market highs, consumers are positive, investors are extremely bullish, and the economy starts to weaken. If history repeats this bull market may continue to surprise many.



We continue to expect a five Primary wave, Cycle [1], bull market. Primary waves I and II were labeled complete in 2011 at SPX 1371 and SPX 1075 respectively. Primary wave III has been underway since that low. Primary I divided into five Major waves with a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary wave III has been following the same path. After a subdividing Major wave 1, Major wave 3 has now extended into its fourth month. Primary I's Major 3 was seven months long.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

After a somewhat choppy start this uptrend has progressed quite nicely. Intermediate waves one and two completed in June at SPX 1363 and SPX 1309 respectively. An extended Intermediate wave three divided into five Minor waves, which also subdivided, completing in September at SPX 1475. Intermediate wave four, somewhat more complex than Int. two, completed at SPX 1431 in September as well. Intermediate wave five has been underway since that low. When Int. wave five concludes this uptrend, Major wave 3, should end as well.



We have calculated some upside targets using both our long term OEW pivots and the Fibonacci wave relationships. The first objective, is naturally, to make new highs above SPX 1475. The first area of resistance then becomes the 1499 OEW pivot. The next level of resistance is the OEW 1523 pivot, and the Fibonacci target range SPX 1527-1534. After that we have two more OEW pivots: 1552 and 1576. Should the uptrend continue higher we have another series of Fibonacci wave relationships at SPX 1586-1606. For now we will be conservative, and project an uptrend high at the OEW 1523 pivot or the Fibonacci 1527-1534 range.


Medium term support is at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. As an uptrend nears its conclusion we will often notice technical weakness in various sectors. Currently we see no signs of this. All nine of the SPX sectors are in uptrends, market breadth is close to new highs, and 19 of the 20 foreign markets we track are in uptrends. In our chart review we have also noticed Greece has put in a substantial, possibly bear market, low, and the Baltic Dry Index may have done so recently as well. Longer term the worldwide economy appears to be gaining traction.



SHORT TERM

Short term support is at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum hit quite overbought on friday before declining to nearly oversold. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1447, with the swing level now at 1453.



After we counted SPX 1431 as the Intermediate wave four low, we have observed a series of rallies and pullbacks. The first rally and pullback, SPX 1450-1436, we have labeled Minor waves 1 and 2. Next we observe a rally to SPX 1457, a pullback to 1439, a rally to 1471, and then a pullback to 1457 on friday. This entire sequence should be part of a dividing Minor 3. Should SPX 1457 be breeched to the downside, then Minor wave 3 will be subdividing even further. For the market to invalidate this count the SPX would have to drop to 1439. Once the market clears the current resistance at SPX 1463/64, by closing above it, the uptrend should resume. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 0.9%. Only China, which is on holiday, remains in a downtrend.

The European markets were all higher on the week for a net gain of 3.2%. All uptrends here.

The Commodity equity group were mixed on the week for a net gain of 0.6%. All uptrends here as well.

The DJ World index remains uptrending and gained 1.6% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bond prices continue to downtrend losing 0.4% on the week. Prices and yields have been quite choppy lately.

Crude is downtrending and remains volatile losing 2.3% on the week. Currently we are observing a positive divergence at wednesday's $87.70 low.

Gold remains in an uptrend since June, and gained 0.6% on the week. Negative divergences are beginning to set up, as Gold has hit resistance and is extremely overbought on the weekly chart.

The USD remains in a downtrend losing 0.8% on the week. The uptrending EUR gained 1.4%, and uptrending JPYUSD lost 0.9%.

NEXT WEEK

A relatively quiet economic week ahead. On wednesday: Wholesale inventories, the Budget deficit and the FED's Beige book. Then on thursday: weekly Jobless claims, the Trade deficit and Export/Import prices. On friday: the PPI and Consumer sentiment. The FED gets active again starting with a speech by FED governor Tarullo on wednesday after the market close. Then on thursday a speech by FED governor Stein, and a panel discussion by FED vice chair Yellen. Best to your week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[TREND1]

TONY_SSO_D_MID_TERM
since 7/13/2012

[TREND1]

Like to make a few comments about EWAVER'S Tony and Pretzel:
(1)Tony's swing point of 1453 is very close to 01_SPX_60_SHORT TERM chart's support line.
(2)Pretzel's bear line of 1430 is very close to the low and start of suport on the 04_SPX_D_MID_TERM chart
(3) Both Tony and Pretzel use EWAVE and TA in their work.IMHO.


SPX_SHORT_MID_LONG_TERM
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01_SPX_60_SHORT_TERM

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04_SPX_D_MID_TERM

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05_SPX_W_LONG_TERM

[TREND1]

friday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: gap up opening is faded, DOW +35

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, then rallied after the Payrolls report was released. Payrolls gained: +114K vs +96K, and the Unemployment rate fell: 7.8% vs 8.1%. The market then gapped up at the opened to SPX 1467 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 1461 yesterday. By 10:30 the SPX hit its high for the day at 1471, then began to pullback. At 12:00 FED governor Duke's speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/duke20121005a.htm. The pullback continued into the afternoon, closing the upside gap nearing 3:00. Around this time Consumer credit was reported higher: $18.1 bln vs -$3.3 bln. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1457, then ended the day at 1461.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.50%. Bonds lost 16 ticks, Crude dropped $1.75, Gold slid $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Last night the FED reported a decline in the Monetary base: $2.589 tln vs $2.656 tln. Today the WLEI was reported higher yet again: 54.7% vs 53.8%.

The market continued yesterday's rally early today, pushing the recent advance up to SPX 1471. Then it reverted back to the monday/tuesday action of rallying early and pulling back for the rest of the day. The rally from the SPX 1431 Intermediate wave iv low continues to display these starts and stops. But is still impulsing.

Short term support remains at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance still at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum again hit quite overbought this morning, and then declined to nearly oversold during the pullback. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing level now around SPX 1453.


Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[RCKS]

Pretzel view and charts:

"Yesterday's update expected more upside, and the S&P 500 (SPX) indeed extended its rally. I continue to favor the view that the decline completed at 1430, and that the market is headed to 1490-1500 next. Today has the potential to make or break that view -- this is probably the bears last chance for at least a little while, and they can ill-afford further upside here."

[TREND1]

85 B/m
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. These actions, which together will increase the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

[TREND1]

thursday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: market starts to make upside progress, DOW +81

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. European markets opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 367K vs 359K. The SPX opened at 1455 and continued to rally. At 10:00 Factory orders were reported lower: -5.2% vs +2.8%. A few minutes after the report the SPX hit a new rally high at 1463 and began to pullback. The pullback lasted until 11:30 when the SPX hit 1457, then it tried to rally again. At 2:00 the FOMC minutes were released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20121004a.htm. Just past 3:00 the SPX hit 1463 again, then pulled back to close at 1461.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.40%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude rallied $3.40, Gold gained $12, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the SPX 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: the monthly Payrolls report at 8:30, a speech from the FED governor Duke at 1:00, then Consumer credit at 3:00.

The market opened higher again, for the fourth day in a row, and held its gains again just like yesterday. With today's rally exceeding the recent high at SPX 1457, it is beginning to look more and more like Intermediate wave iv ended at SPX 1431. We are now counting the initial rally to SPX 1450, off that 1431 low, as Minor wave 1. And, the pullback that followed to SPX 1436 as Minor wave 2. We should currently be in Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave V. This count is posted on the hourly chart.

Short term support remains at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance still at 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum rose from neutral to quite overbought today, then ended the day overbought. The short term OEW charts remains positive from SPX 1447, with the swing level now at 1450. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[RCKS]

Nice chart, thanks for putting Pretzel in chart form.
A couple other notes, we are trading above his Bear Warning of 1457 and we sit just below his Bull Trigger of 17 points (1480 is target) at 1463. We may have it at close however.

[TREND1]

Pretzel says bull trigger is 1463.
Target is 1490-1500
.

.
SPX_D

[RCKS]

Pretzel charts:

[TREND1]

wednesday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: early pullbac then rally, DOW +12

Overnight the Asian markets were flat. European markets opened lower but closed +0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP index was reported lower: 162K vs 201K. The market opened higher at SPX 1448, two points above yeaterday's close, but immediately began to pullback. At 10:00 the SPX hit 1442 and ISM services was reported higher: 55.1 vs 53.7. Then the market tried to rally again. Around 12:30 the SPX hit 1454, pulled back to 1447 by 3:00, and then closed at 1451.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude dropped $3.90, Gold added $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support for the SPX remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: the monthly ECB meeting, press conference, and weekly Jobless claims by 8:30. Then Factory orders at 10:00 and the FOMC minutes at 2:00.

The market reversed its recent activity today by opening higher, pulling back, and then rallying. Instead of making the high for the day in the first half hour of trading, then pulling back for most of the day. This could be a sign that the recent choppy activity is coming to a close. Tomorrow the ECB meets, with a press conference to follow, before the US market opens. Then the FOMC minutes, we expected on wednesday, will be reported at 2:00. Two potential market movers, back to back, in one day.

With today's rally exceeding yesterday's SPX 1452 high, the market may be preparing to move higher. We still see SPX 1431 as the Int. wave iv low, then a series of one-two's: SPX 1450-1436-1457-1439. Short term support remains at the 1440 pivot then SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum hit overbought today, then pulled back to neutral.

***** The short term OEW charts turned positive with the swing level at SPX 1447.


Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[TREND1]

PRETZEL SHORT TERM ( Very simple)

[RCKS]

Pretzel view & chart:

"Last night I studied a great number of charts, and found that there are several markets which are running at cross-currents. Investors seem a bit confused.

Because of these cross currents, I'm going to keep today's update fairly simple. The bottom line is: This is still a pattern that can go either way. After debating a number of factors, it appears that unless bears can break SPX 1430, the bulls remain in control."

[TREND1]

tuesday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: market still choppy, DOW -33

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened higher at SPX 1448. The SPX had closed at 1444 yesterday. Within the first few minutes of trading the SPX hit 1452, the high for the day, and then began to pullback in another choppy session. At 10:00 the SPX hit yesterday's close at 1444, bounced to 1450 by 10:30, then pulled back to 1440 by 11:30. After another rally attempt, this time to SPX 1445, the market pulled back again. By 3:00 the SPX had reached 1439, and then rallied to close at 1446.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude slid 75 cents, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: ADP at 8:15, ISM services at 10:00, then the FOMC minutes at 2:00.

For the second day in a row, the market rallied at the open and made its high for the day before 10:00. Then it spent the rest of the day in pullback mode until nearing the close. This market appears to be looking for leadership. While market action has been quite choppy, since wednesday's potential Intermediate wave iv low at SPX 1431. We continue to see these rallies and pullbacks as a base building process for eventually new bull market highs. The only thing that would change this view would be first a pullback to SPX 1436, and then below 1431. This would suggest the Int. iv pullback is still underway.

Short term support remains at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum hit oversold during today's pullback, then bounced over neutral at the close.

*****The short term OEW charts are still in neutral with the swing level at SPX 1447.

Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[RCKS]

Yesterday's Pretzel with charts (day off today):

"There's been no material change to the big picture outlook discussed on Thursday: the market has left its options open, but appears to be at an inflection point. Since there's not much to add to that discussion, I'm going to focus primarily on the near-term charts for this update...."

[TREND1]

monday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: markets upbeat entering Q4, DOW +78

Overnight the Asian markets were flat. European markets opened higher and gained 1.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened higher at SPX 1445. The SPX had closed at 1441 on friday. At 10:00 ISM manufacturing was reported higher: 51.5 vs 49.6, and Construction spending was reported lower: -0.6% vs -0.9%. The rally continued until past 10:00 when the SPX hit 1457. After that it started to pullback. The pullback continued into the early afternoon, and then accelerated to the downside after FED chairman Bernanke's speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20121001a.htm. Around 1:30 the SPX had pulled back to the opening level, SPX 1445, and tried to rally. The bounce lasted until 2:00 when the SPX hit 1450, and then it turned lower again. At 3:30 the SPX dipped to unchange at 1441, and then bounced into a 1444 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude added 15 cents, Gold rose $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Auto sales.

The market opened higher to start the month. Rallied to SPX 1457 in the first hour of trading: +16 points. Then gave it all back, during the rest of the day, before bouncing into the close. It appears volatility has returned to this market. With this morning's advance moving above the SPX 1450 level it turned the short term charts positive, suggesting the Intermediate wave iv pullback ended on wednesday at SPX 1431. With this afternoon's pullback, however, the short term charts turned negative again.

This morning we posted an Intermediate wave iv low on the public charts. The recent market action from wednesday's SPX 1431 low, (1450-1436-1457-1441), suggests Intermediate wave v may be subdividing during its initial advance. As long as SPX 1436 holds support we will assume this is the proper short term count.

Short term support remains at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum hit overbought this morning and then dropped below neutral during the pullback.

The short term OEW charts turned positive, then negative again, (we'll consider this neutral), with the swing level now at SPX 1448.

Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[TREND1]

TONY and PRETZEL are now SHORT TERM BULLISH.
WHY?
Both have hit TRIGGERS.
.

.

[TREND1]

Tony Mid Term Chart
NOTE the gain in green

Some IHUB EWAVER say Tony is not pure EWAVE
I say Tony has been long since July 13, 2012
and uses EWAVE plus TA.
And has done better then some "TOP CALLING" EWAVER.

[TREND1]

weekend update by tony caldaro

REVIEW

The pullback from new bull market highs continued for a second week. After a 16.4% gain over the past, nearly, four months. The market has pulled back 3.0% over the past two weeks. Quite normal for this stage of the uptrend. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.2%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.1%. Asian markets were flat, European markets lost 4.1%, and the DJ World index lost 1.8%. Positive economic reports continue to outpace negative reports, this week 11 to 5. On the downtick: Q2 GDP, durable goods orders, pending home sales, the Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, consumer confidence, FHFA housing prices, new home prices/sales, personal income/spending, PCE prices, the M1 multiplier, the WLEI and the weekly jobless claims improved. Next week we get a look at the monthly Payrolls report, ISM, Auto sales and Consumer credit.

LONG TERM: bull market

This Cycle wave [1] bull market continues to unfold as expected. While many fundamentalists and technicians have warned investors of many potential problems for the economy and stock market. The FED has continued to fight the deflationary secular cycle with an accommodative liquidity cycle. Thus far, the FED, the stock market, and government deficits continue to help the economy recover. While several of the highly watched economic indicators have recently shifted into contraction mode, or have been softening. Our leading economic indicator, the WLEI, has been rising since Q4 of 2011. This suggests to us, with nearly 50 years of historical data, the economy is expanding again.

The weekly chart displays our OEW labeling of this bull market. We are expecting the typical five Primary wave advance for a Cycle wave. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011 at SPX 1371 and SPX 1075 respectively. Primary wave III has been underway since that low. Primary wave I divided into five Major waves with a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary wave III appears to be following the same path as its Major wave 1 also subdivided into five Intermediate waves. Major waves 1 and 2 completed in 2012 at SPX 1415/22 and SPX 1267 respectively, and Major wave 3 has been underway since that low.



Currently, the MACD continues to rise suggesting further upside progress for Major wave 3. Yet, the RSI has declined some during the recent pullback. This suggests the next series of new bull market highs may create a negative divergence. Negative divergences like this have signalled the top of most of this bull market's uptrends. After Major wave 3 concludes, the market should experience a Major 4 correction. Then another uptrending Major wave 5 to complete Primary wave III. After a Primary wave IV correction, a rising Primary wave V should take the stock market to new highs, possibly/probably, all time highs to end the bull market in mid to late 2013.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

This uptrend, Major wave 3, began in early June at SPX 1267 and rose to a high of SPX 1475 by mid September. We have been labeling this uptrend as five Intermediate waves with a subdividing Intermediate wave iii. The uptrend was a bit choppy during July, but eventually resumed its impulsing advance by the end of that month.



We have labeled Int. wave i @ SPX 1363, Int. wave ii @ SPX 1309, Int. wave iii @ SPX 1475, and Int. wave iv underway, or having completed @ SPX 1431. Assuming an Int. wave iv low @ SPX 1431 we can now project some Fibonacci targets for Int. wave v. At SPX 1527-1534, Int. v = Int. i and 0.618 Int. iii. We also have a long term OEW pivot at SPX 1523, and these levels are within its upper range. At SPX 1586-1606 Int. v = Int. iii and 1.618 Int. i, plus Major wave 3 = Major wave 1. These levels represent all time new highs in the stock market. There are also two other OEW pivots before the market potentially reaches all time new highs: OEW 1552 and OEW 1576. Overall, the potential to reach SPX 1600 is possible, but the market will have to overcome a lot of resistance in the process. For now, once the 1499 pivot is cleared, we will look for an uptrend high at the 1523 pivot. Medium term support is now at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots.

SHORT TERM

Short term support is at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week just below neutral. The short term OEW charts remain negatively biased with the swing level around SPX 1447.



During this entire uptrend we have observed alternation between second and fourth waves down to the Minute degree. Naturally we should expect to see alternation between the largest degree waves within this uptrend, Int. waves ii and iv, and we do. Int. wave ii lasted only four trading days and was a simple zigzag. Thus far Int. wave iv has lasted eight trading days, and at the SPX 1431 low it appears to be a double zigzag. If it did not complete at wednesday's low then a more complex pattern is possible, as is a possible retest of SPX 1431 or a slightly lower low. Thus far we have not received a signal from our short term charts that would suggest the pullback is over. Should the SPX exceed thursday's 1450 high we are likely to get that signal. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were quite mixed on the week and ended flat. All indices are in uptrends, except improving China and Singapore.

The European markets were all lower on the week for a 4.1% loss. France, Italy and the Stox may be in downtrends.

The Commodity equity group were all lower as well for a net loss of 2.3%. All three indices remain in uptrends.

The uptrending DJ World index lost 1.8% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bond prices have been downtrending since early June in quite a choppy pattern. They gained 0.6% on the week. Bond yields have been rising since the late July 1.39% low, but are close to confirming a downtrend.

Crude sold off to $89 this week after reaching an uptrend high of $100 in mid-month. Crude lost 1.1% on the week, and any additional selling could confirm a downtrend.

Gold has been uptrending since late June. This week it failed to exceed its uptrend high at $1790 and lost 0.1%.

The USD downtrended from mid July @ DXY 84 to mid September @ DXY 79, became quite oversold, and has since rebounded. Still downtrending, but it gained 0.8% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Monday kicks off the economic week with ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10:00. Tuesday we have monthly Auto sales. On wednesday: the ADP index, ISM services, and the FOMC minutes. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and Factory orders. Then on friday the monthly Payrolls report and Consumer credit. The FED comes out of its hiatus with a speech from FED chairman Bernanke on monday at 12:30. On friday FED governor Duke gives a speech at the NY FED. Best to your weekend and week.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[TREND1]

TONY SHORT TERM

[TREND1]

friday update by tony caldaro

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -49

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. European markets opened higher, but lost 1.4%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Personal income was reported: +0.1% vs +0.3%, and Personal spending: +0.5% vs +0.4%, and PCE prices: +0.1% vs 0.0%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1442 and continued to pullback. It had closed at SPX 1447 yesterday. Near 10:00 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 49.7 vs 53.0, as was Consumer sentiment: 78.3 vs 79.2. Just past 10:00 the FED released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120928a.htm. The pullback continued until 10:30 when the SPX hit 1436. Then the market tried to rally. At 1:30 the SPX hit 1446, pulled back to 1438 by 3:30, then bounced to a 1441 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.70%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude added 15 cents, Gold slipped $5, and the USD was higher.

***** Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots.

Last night the FED reported a rise in the M1 multiplier: 0.901 vs 0.897, its highest level since early 2011. Today the WLEI was reported higher again: 53.8% vs 52.7%.

The market gapped down 5 points at the open today, traded down to SPX 1436, and then rallied. Today's low matched yesterday's trading low. While the SPX did not setup any positive divergences at the low, the DOW did, and the market rallied. Then after hitting SPX 1446 the market pulled back again, but this time to 1438, then rallied into the close. Quite a choppy session. After two days of choppy market activity our OEW short term charts have not turned positive. So a potential retest of wednesday's SPX 1431 low is still on the table.

Short term support remains at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum touched oversold this morning then ended the day around neutral.

***** The OEW short term charts remain negatively biased with the swing point now around SPX 1447.


Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

[TREND1]

RCKS
I agree.
Pretzel and Tony add a little regular TA to their EWAVE,
which helps them stay out of big trouble. IMHO.

[RCKS]

With that view he is leaning towards 1474 as somekind of top on an intermediate basis at least. Not all that different of a view from Pretzel.

[TREND1]

TONY SHORT TERM BULLISH / BEARISH swing point.

[RCKS]

Pretzel is off today but here are charts from yesterday 4 of them:

[RCKS]

Trend thanks