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thursday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: markets gaps up and rallies, DOW +72
Overnight the Asian markets were +0.4%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.4% as well. US index futures were higher overnight, but at 8:30 the final Q2 GDP was reported lower: +1.3% vs +1.7%. Also at 8:30 volatile Durable goods orders declined: -13.2% vs +4.2%, but weekly Jobless claims were lower: 359K vs 382K. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1438, bounced to the 1440 pivot in the first few minutes, then pulled back to 1436 by 10:00. The SPX had closed at 1433 yesterday. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported lower: -2.6% vs +2.4%. Then the market resumed its rally. Heading into the last hour of trading the SPX hit 1450, then pulled back to close at SPX 1447.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.40%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude gained $2.10, Gold rallied $25, and the USD was lower.
***** Medium term support for the SPX jumps back to the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots.
Last night the FED reported New home prices at their highest level in four years: $295.3K vs $270.6K. Tomorrow: Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30. Then the Chicago PMI and Consumer sentiment near 10:00.
The market gapped up at the open today off European news. Then it rallied to SPX 1450. This represents a 19 point gain from yesterday morning's SPX 1431 low. It is also the best rally since the recent Intermediate wave iii at SPX 1475 high. While this was an impressive one day rally, we're not convinced the low for Intermediate wave iv ended at SPX 1431.
In fact, the market activity since the FED's QE 3 announcement continues to look very similar to the market activity after the FED's QE 2 announcement. Then, the initial low was retested again before that Intermediate wave iv completed. Yes, the FED announced QE 2 just before the Int. wave iii high in Major wave 3 of Primary I. What followed, then, was an Int. wave iv flat. This timing is quite odd from an OEW perspective.
*****Short term support notches back up to the OEW 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot.
Short term momentum hit overbought today, from yesterday's extremely oversold condition.
*****The short term OEW charts remain negatively biased with the swing point now at SPX 1449.
Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
RCKS
Thanks
May try same type of chart for PRETZEL using
1426
1452-1456
Pretzel text plus chart:
"So it's "that time" again, when the bears start getting loud -- how the market environment can change in a week! The bottom line, though, is that nothing's cut-and-dried yet from an intermediate perspective.
The market hasn't done anything to prove itself one way or the other here, and the long-term counts are simply going to require a bit more clarification from the market. While many Elliotticians are viewing S&P 500 (SPX) 1426 as the "end-all" to ruin all future bull prospects, 1426 is simply the first warning level, and trade beneath that level would not guarantee a bearish long-term outcome. The chart below shows why.
Something that remains bothersome to the immediate bear prospects is the fact that RSI and MACD both confirmed the 1474 high, and it's rare for the market to form a long-term peak without some type of divergence forming first -- not impossible of course, but unusual."
Trend that is a great way to show Tony's view.
wednesday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: market pullback extends, DOW -44
Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.0%. European markets opened lower and lost 2.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened one point under yesterday's SPX 1442 close. Right after the open the market resumed its pullback. At 10:00 New homes sales were reported about unchanged: 373K vs 372K. The decline accelerated after 10:00, and the SPX broke through the OEW 1440 pivot range hitting 1431 by 10:30. Then with an extremely oversold condition the market tried to rally. Around 1:30 the SPX reached 1439, then pulled back into a 1433 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.90%. Bonds gained 14 ticks, Crude slid $1.40, Gold dropped $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support now drops to the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow, Q2 GDP (est. +1.7%) plus weekly Jobless claims and Durable goods orders at 8:30. Then Pending home sales at 10:00.
The market opened slightly lower today, then continued yesterday afternoon's selling. Within the first hour of trading the SPX broke through the OEW 1440 pivot range, (SPX 1433-1447), then made a low at SPX 1431. This Intermediate wave iv pullback has now extended to 44 points from the SPX 1475 high. A bit more than expected but still acceptable. Intermediate wave ii had a 54 point pullback. Currently this market is trading in between the recent Minute wave iii and iv range of Minor wave 5 (SPX 1429-1439).
Short term support is at SPX 1422/27 and 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold today then bounced a bit. A lower low tomorrow could set up a tradeable positive divergence. The short term OEW charts remains negative from SPX 1456, with the swing point now SPX 1451. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
Gold Update by Patrick McGough by tony caldaro
Long Term: Bull Market
My comment: Note the URL will show all the charts.
The Gold Bull market started during the first quarter of 2001, and has now been in play for approximately 11 1/2 years. Commodity cycles tend to have 13 year bull markets and 21 year bear markets. This completes a 34 year cycle and for the moment Gold appears to be in the last 1-1 1/2 years of this cycle. Fortunately for us traders this tends to be the most explosive part of the cycle. In the actual economy Gold really does not serve as a commodity but as a currency. If this were not the case why do central banks accumulate or hold gold as reserves? The yellow metal is truly the currency of last resort.
We have been counting Gold as a large impulse, but if one looks at the 1967-1980 bull market the count was certainly corrective. Furthermore no currency or commodity market moves with a long term impulse. The two other major Precious metals Platinum and Silver do not have long term impulses, so with that in mind the gold count was changed to reflect a long term corrective count. This does not change the long term targets, but only seeks to try and represent Gold's true Elliott Wave (EW) nature.
Before moving down to the daily charts let's take a look at two basic details in the weekly chart. When looking at waves for EW it is critical to remember the impulse numbers (5, 9, 13, 17, 21, 25, etc). First notice that Major a/Primary A completed with 17 waves up, and Major c/Primary A completed with 13 waves up. It would seem that Major c/Primary A "cycled" down one wave set. If this were to occur for Primary C we should expect 9 waves up for the final Major c.
The second detail is just some basic Fib projections.
Major a / Primary A (2001-2004) = 69%
Major c / Primary A (2004-2008) = 178%
Major a / Primary C (2008-2011) = 183%
Each of the major waves have approximately a 2.618 extension to the first major wave in the bull market. This leads to a rather simple bull market top projection (69% = $2580 & 180% = $4,270). As mentioned above these targets should be hit in the next 1 - 1 1/2 years. After this it may not be very wise to be long gold.
Medium Term
The current uptrend began in late June and ended an ~ 8 1/2 month correction from $1923 - $1526 (21%). From the truncated low of $1547 Gold has risen 16% to $1790. Notice there are two resistance pivots at $1793 and $1804. This area should prove to be an issue for Gold over the next few weeks.
Currently Gold has a significant negative divergence and looks like we could get a bearish MACD cross. We should expect Minor 4 to correct anywhere between $35 - $65, and the uptrend should then resume. Gold could potentially make a new high during this uptrend, but the $1800 - $1830 level should provide stiff resistance. First target for Intermediate i = $1820 - $1830 and second target new bull market highs ($1920-$1950).
Short Term
The shorter term charts tend to offer many more probabilities, so let's try to view this time frame in the proper prospective. This impulse wave can be counted in a few different ways, but we try to stick to the most obvious count. The GLD recently ran into resistance at the March 2012 and November 2011 highs, and for the moment it appears Minor 4 started on Friday last week. Minor 4 should find support around the $1690-$1660 level in GLD.
Alternate Count
The truncated wave in late June causes technicians a minor problem. Was it really a truncated wave or a true uptrend? For the moment the best answer is that we can't be 100% sure either way. For this reason an alternate count will be included on the GPX chart.
This count would mean Gold is most likely in Minor 1 up of a potentially extending Intermediate iii wave. The next correction will give us some clues as to whether or not this alternate count is viable. Enjoy the rest of this Gold bull market, since late next year will most likely end up marking the end of what has been a very nice bull run for the yellow metal.
tony caldaro | September 26, 2012 at 11:41 am | Categories: Updates | URL: http://wp.me/p17q4H-2rg
Pretzel:
"Publication will be spotty this week, as, unfortunately, I have a number of more pressing and urgent personal issues to attend to."
SPX_D
Above the Green Line Sep 25, 2012 by Joanne Klein
http://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/chartbook/276777717;
tuesday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: market pullback continues, DOW -101
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 9:00 Case-Shiller housing prices were reported higher: +1.2% vs +0.5%. The market opened higher at SPX 1461, then dipped to 1459 by 10:00. At ten Consumer confidence was reported higher: 70.3 vs 60.6, and the FHFA housing index gained again: +0.2% vs +0.7%. The market then rallied to its high for the day at SPX 1463 and began to pullback. The pullback continued throughout the afternoon and right into the close. The SPX ended the day at 1442.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.35%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude slid 85 cents, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was flat.
***** Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots.
Tomorrow: New home sales at 10:00.
The market opened higher today, hit resistance at SPX 1463, and then began to pullback. Around 3:00 the SPX broke through the temporary support at 1450/52, continued lower, and hit the 1440 pivot range by the close. That potential triangle scenario, noted yesterday, no longer looks to be in play.
Another look at the short term charts displays a three wave decline to SPX 1450, a rally to 1467, then another three wave decline to 1442. Both declines are exactly 25 points, for a total Intermediate wave iv decline of 33 points. The daily RSI ended slightly oversold today too. This pullback now meets our original minimum projections of a 30+ point pullback, and an oversold daily RSI. Should the OEW 1440 pivot range hold, (SPX 1433-1447), the bottom may be in for Int. wave iv.
*****Short term support is at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot.
Short term momentum ended the day quite oversold. The short term OEW charts now have a negative bias from SPX 1455. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
SPY_60 by ART HILL (Will not up date)
No change. The trend since early Friday (14-Sep) has been down with a falling flag of sorts taking shape. Even though this is a bullish pattern, I am skeptical that a breakout will produce a big gain. As noted before, I think overbought conditions are more likely to prevail and push the market into a corrective period. Also note that third quarter earnings season is just around the corner. Corrections can be with pullback or flat trading ranges (consolidations). Broken resistance and the early September consolidation mark first support around 143. Key support remains in the 139-140 area.
Pretzel off today
monday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -21
Overnight the Asian markets were -0.4%. European markets opened lower and closed -0.6%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 1453 at the open. After a dip to SPX 1452, in the opening minutes, the market tried to rally. At 10:00 the FED issued the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20120924a.htm. The rally continued until 11:00 when the SPX hit 1458, and then started to pullback. For the next 2.5 hours the market traded between SPX 1454 and 1456. Then after hitting SPX 1454 for the second time, around 1:30, the market tried to rally again. Around 3:00 the SPX hit its high for the day at 1461, then pulled back to close at 1457.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.60%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude slipped 90 cents, Gold slid $9, and the USD was higher.
***** Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots.
Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9:00, then Consumer confidence and the FHFA price index at 10:00.
The market gapped down again today for the second time in three tading days. This activity has occurred during both pre- and post- options expiration friday. The pullback took the market to within two points of thursday's gap down SPX 1450 low, and then rallied. Again, somewhat similar to thursday's activity as well. Thus far we have had a short term high at SPX 1475, a pullback to 1450, a rally to 1467, and now another pullback to, thus far, 1452. A possible Intermediate wave iv triangle may be forming: wave a SPX 1450, wave b SPX 1467, wave c SPX 1452, with waves d and e yet to come.
Short term support can now be counted at SPX 1450/52 and the 1440 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum was quite oversold this morning, like thursday, and rebounded to neutral during the day. The short term OEW charts turned negative, then positive again, as the market vacillated around the SPX 1455 swing point.
Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
Pretzel is a good read today, to see the full text go to:
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
friday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: market ends mixed, DOW -17
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.2%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight on this Options expiration friday. The market opened higher at SPX 1464 and continued to rally. In the first few minutes the SPX hit 1467 and then began to pullback. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1460 and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude added 65 cents, Gold rose $5, and the USD was lower.
***** Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots.
Last night the FED reported a rise in the Monetary base: $2.656 tln vs $2.652 tln. Today the WLEI was reported higher again: 52.7% vs 52.1%.
The market opened higher today, hit SPX 1467 and slightly overbought, and then began to pullback. This two day rally is the best one we have seen since the SPX hit 1475 last friday. This suggests yesterday's SPX 1450 low was an important one. We still see the SPX 1475 high as the end of Int. wave iii, and the recent market activity since then as part of Int. wave iv. With Int. wave ii, (SPX 1363 - 1309), a quick zigzag, Int. wave iv can unfold in a few different patterns: a flat or triangle or complex three.
*****Short term support is at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot.
Short term momentum hit slightly overbought today and then declined. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1412, with the swing point now at 1455. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
tech
Good post.
Has triggers and targets
NOTE: Your other charts have only price.
Your StockCharts do have indicates.
The long term downtrend will be completely confirmed by e-wave theory when the price drops below $25.50. The long term target will be $12-$16.
ORCL
From the 2011 high to the 2012 June-ish low ORCL formed a textbook triangle. Triangles are found in wave 4 and wave b positions, which are the last consolidation before the last wave of the larger trend takes place. Often the wave following a triangle retraces it very quickly and stops about where the triangle started.
In ORCL's case, the rally after the triangle (June-ish 2012 lows to present) may not rally past the start of the triangle. This is called truncation. The rally is arching over in weakness. If you are long ORCL, GET OUT IMMEDIATELY. Upside is severly limited, and the trend reversal following truncation is even sharper than a post triangle move. The initial downside target is $26.
The intraday chart shows 5 waves complete since Tuesday, and on above average volume. This is initial confirmation the long term top is in place.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=orcl&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=9%2F20%2F2012&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
The daily chart shows the price has not broken the lower trendline since the rally began May-June. Touching the 50 day average or lower bollinger band will be a stronger confirmation of a long term trend reversal.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ORCL&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p77709216059
The long term chart shows the triangle. The long term downtrend will be completely confirmed by e-wave theory when the price drops below $25.50. The long term target will be $12-$16.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=orcl&time=13&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=9%2F20%2F2012&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=63&y=16
thursday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: pullback extends, DOW +19
Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.2%. European markets opened lower and declined 0.4%. US index futures we lower as well. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported flat: 382K vs 382K. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1455 and continued lower until hitting 1450 around 10:00. At ten the Philly FED was reported improving: -1.9% vs -7.1%, but
*****Leading indicators declined: -0.1% vs +0.4%.
The market then started to rally. The rally continued to move higher throughout the day, hitting SPX 1461 around 3:30. Then after a slight dip to SPX 1458 the market closed at 1460.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds added 3 ticks, Crude gained 70 cents, Gold slipped $3, and the USD was higher.
***** Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots.
Tomorrow is Options expiration day.
The market gapped down at the open today for the first time since the end of August. During the open the SPX gapped right below support at 1456 and continued lower to 1450. Then, with the market quite oversold short term, the SPX rallied 9 points over the next two hours. During the recent decline, from SPX 1475-1450, the largest rally was also 9 points. That occurred when the SPX first hit 1456 at the open on tuesday. The market then took nearly two full trading days just to rally that 9 points. This suggests SPX 1450, +/- a few points, may be an important level.
With the recent pullback of 25 points it appears Intermediate iii, of this Major wave 3 uptrend, completed at SPX 1475. The current decline should be part of Intermediate wave iv. When it concludes Intermediate wave v should take the market to new bull market highs. Fourth waves during this uptrend have been relatively minor pullbacks, and have taken the form of a triangle; i.e. Minor 4, and the two Minute iv's. This would suggest the OEW 1440 pivot range, (SPX 1433-1447), should support this Intermediate wave iv pullback.
*****Short term support is at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot.
Short term momentum hit quite oversold this morning then bounced back to neutral. The short term OEW charts barely remained positive with the swing point now SPX 1452. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
RCKS
Correct me if wrong, but these 3 charts look like
Long Term
Mid Term
Short Term
Pretzel view & Chart:
"In conclusion, while I'm somewhat cautious here, given the lack of divergences, we probably have to continue giving bulls the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. I view the short-term as a toss-up at the moment, so I'll publish more concrete targets as they become available. Trade safe."
wednesday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: market tries to rally, DOW +13
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.2%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. At 8:30 Housing starts were reported higher: 750K vs 746K, and Building permits were lower: 803K vs 812K. The market opened one point higher than yesterday's SPX 1459 close. In the first few minutes the SPX dipped to 1458 and rallied to 1463 by 10:00. At ten Existing home sales were reported higher: 4.82 mln vs 4.47 mln. After another pullback to SPX 1458 by 10:30 the market tried to rally again. Just past 3:00 the SPX hit 1465 for the second time in the day, and then pulled back into a 1461 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude dropped $3.65, Gold was flat, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then the Philly FED and Leading indicators at 10:00.
The market opened slightly higher today, dipped to SPX 1458, rallied to 1463, then retested 1458 before heading higher. It did look like the market was ready to move to higher highs. But it is still hovering around resistance at the SPX 1463/64 fibonacci pivot. Even though the SPX held support, at the lower end of the SPX 1456-1471 pivot range, on tuesday. The current three day selloff in Crude is reminiscent of the last time the FED announced a QE program on November 3, 2010. Then, a few days after the announcement, Crude dropped 10% and the SPX pulled back about 4%. Crude has already declined 10% in just three trading days.
*****If the SPX pulls back again, and breaks through the 1456 level, we could be looking at a pullback into support at the 1440 pivot and then 1422/27. SPX 1456 now takes on more significance as the market heads into Options expiration friday.
Short term support remains at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot. Short term momentum was nearly quite overbought today, and then declined to neutral. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1412, with the swing point now at 1451. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
tuesday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: market pullback continues, DOW +12
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.6%. US index futures were lower overnight as well. At 8:30 the Q2 current Account deficit decreased: -$117.4 bln vs -$137.3 bln. The market opened at yesterday's SPX 1458 low, dipped to 1456, and then tried to rally. At 10:00 the NAHB index was reported at its highest level in six years: 40 vs 37. Around 11:30 the rally ended at SPX 1461 and the market started to pullback. The pullback was minor, in this quiet trading day, as the SPX hit 1457 by 2:00. Then the market just drifted up to end the day at SPX 1459.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 8 ticks, Crude dropped $1.10, Gold gained $13, and the USD was higher.
***** Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots.
Tomorrow: Housing starts and Building permits at 8:30, then Existing home sales at 10:00.
The market opened lower today, hit a new pullback low at SPX 1456, then traded in a narrow range for the rest of the day. This pullback has now extended to 19 SPX points (1475-1456), but it held the 1463/64 pivot support today at 1456. Thus far, the past three days look like a consolidation period after new bull market highs. Nevertheless, we continue to monitor the fibonacci 1463/64 pivot range, (1456-1471), to determine the markets next short term move. Keep in mind, any futher pullback will probably find support at the 1440 pivot. And, any breakout will encounter resistance at the 1499 pivot.
*****Short term support remains at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot.
Short term momentum touched oversold again today then bounced to neutral. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1412, with the swing point now around 1448. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
SPX_D by Art Hill
Sep 18, 2012
SPY Could be in the Fifth of the Fifth, but Uptrend Rules for Now
The major index ETFs are in uptrends and overbought. In general, it is much better to pick bottoms than tops in uptrend. Even though SPY, QQQ and IWM are overbought and ripe for a pullback, picking a short-term top is challenging when the bigger trend is clearly up. Overbought conditions will be tested this week when a handful of companies start reporting earnings. Global shipper FedEx is up this morning, software maker Adobe (ADBE) and retailer Bed Bath Beyond (BBBY) are up on Wednesday, tech titan Oracle reports on Thursday, home builder KB Home (KBH) reports on Friday and Darden Restaurants (DRI) rounds out the week. Overall, third quarter earnings are expected to decline for the first time since 2009. One would never know it with the S&P 500 trading at a 52-week high. With stocks priced to perfection, a disappointing season could put pressure on stocks over the next one to six weeks. As noted in yesterday’s Market Message, the current advance looks like the fifth wave with support in the 1400 area. With SPY in the fifth wave on the 60-minute chart, this means we could be in the famous fifth of the fifth.
Pokersam I see your post from yesterday is gone in which you questioned my take of Pretzel's view going forward, so I will post this quote from his posting yesterday pre-market:
"Friday saw the rally extend, with the central bank liquidity pumps running at high speed. It seems reasonable to assume the bullish wave counts are probably in control, given the Fed's announcement of QE-Infinity -- and the behavior of momentum indicators, which have accelerated accordingly."
*****EWAVER SUMMARY
For all those you do not want to read all this.
TONY UP
PRETZEL UP
HILL UP waiting for 1400 to say down.
Thanks RCKS, I see connecting X waves after most all corrections. This expands my count from most of what I see posted. On this chart.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=79508009
Where he has the large blue 1&2 I have as an connecting X wave. My 1 is where his 3 is, my 2 is where his 4 is, my 3 is where his 5 is.
monday update by tony caldaro
SHORT TERM: market pullback continues, DOW -40
Overnight the Asian markets were -0.3%. European markets opened lower and closed -0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight as well. At 8:30 the NY FED was reported lower: -10.4 vs -5.9. The market opened lower at SPX 1463, rose to 1465 in the first few minutes, then dipped to 1462 by 10:00. The SPX closed at 1466 on friday. The market then went into a tight three point trading range until 1:30, when it broke to the downside. The pullback then hit SPX 1458 by 3:30m and the market bounced into a 1461 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude dropped $2.95, Gold slid $14, and the USD was higher.
***** Medium term support for the SPX is at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots.
Tomorrow: Q2 CAB at 8:30, then the NAHB index at 10:00.
The market opened slightly lower today, bounced to SPX 1465, pulled back to friday's 1462 low, then went into that narrow trading range until about 1:30. Around that time Crude oil broke $4 to the downside and stocks headed lower. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1458, before bouncing higher to end the day. This decline represents a 17 point pullback from early friday's SPX 1475 bull market high: the largest pullback since Minor wave 4 in late August.
We continue to monitor the SPX 1463/64 pivot range: 1456-1471. A break through the lower level could mean Intermediate wave iv, during this options expiration week, is underway.
***** Short term support now slips to the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and the 1499 pivot.
Short term momentum touched oversold during today's pullback. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1412
***** with the swing point now around 1445.
Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
Art Hill video on Elliott Wave counts
Very good. IMHO
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SORRY. Must be member of Stock Charts
Cost is only $15 / month
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http://stockcharts.com/members/videos/20120917-1/
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SPX_D by Art Hill
A FIFTH WAVE FOR THE S&P 500 ...Link for today’s video. Even though some Elliott rules and guidelines don’t fit, the advance from the October low to the September high shows a clear five-wave structure.
There are three rules for Elliott Wave. First, wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of wave 1. Second, wave 3 cannot be the shortest impulse wave. Third, wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 with a five-wave count and a problem with the third rule. The low of wave 4 in June overlaps the high of wave 1 on late October.
However, it is possible that S&P 500 simply overshot during the October surge and May-June decline. Technical analysis mixes art and science. The science part is objected and based on rules, but the art part is subjective and based on interpretation. I am willing to overlook this overlap and keep the five-wave count. Such a count indicates that a correction is the next step. Corrective wave sequences typically form as zigzags with three waves (ABC). Wave A is down, wave B is a bounce within the correction and wave C is down. At this point, the overall trend is clearly up and there are no signs of material weakness.
Broken resistance in the 1400-1425 area turns into first support. A break below the late August lows would provide the first indication that a bigger corrective sequence is unfolding.
RCKS
Thanks for the info
Trend if you pinned Pretzel down he would give his Bearish scenario no more then a 10% chance of proving out and his current Bullish count has a target of 1550-1600.
Intro updated with this entry
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This board is based on the assumption one does NOT know Elliot Wave,
but would like to know the current
BULLISH TRIGGERS
BEARISH TRIGGERS
BULLISH TARGETS
BEARISH TARGETS
from reading this board.
RCKS
That makes TONY and PRETZEL both bullish.
Qone0
I believe he does but I think he works hard at not going there.
If you go to http://www.pretzelcharts.com/ you can scroll through a lot of past posts.
Pretzel view and chart:
"Market Update: I Fought the Fed and the... Fed Won
In conclusion, the bull case must be respected here. While the ending diagonal is still possible, the indicators aren't really matching the pattern very well anymore. If the bears have any firepower left to Fight the Fed at this point, they're simply going to need to prove it. Trade safe."
CitiBank Trigger
The high confidence trigger would be a move below $29, which would be the retracement of the motive wave that started in early September. This confirms the move from early June 2012 as the second zigzag.
SPY_60 by Art Hill
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SPY has been on a tear since late July with a 10% advance in eight weeks. Also note that the ETF is up 5% in September. We do not need a momentum oscillator to know that SPY is short-term overbought and ripe for a pullback. This does not guarantee a correction, but the odds favor some sort of pullback or consolidation soon. Broken resistance and last week’s consolidation mark the first support zone around 143-144. Key support remains at 139.8 for now. RSI support is set at 40.
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RCKS, does Pretzel ever use an X connecting wave?
kbuilder
What does your post have to do with Elliott wave ???
Have your read the intro ?
In other words, the Casino Bosses now have enough cash available to begin selling out their huge long positions they have accumulated in their planned 3 year squeeze on small short players. Look at SPXU. It has lost 91.23% of its initial value started on June 25, 2009. And SPXU is just one of many short ETFs. The Casino Bosses have been methodically beating small players out of their money, even though the small player is actually right in their judgment of value in the markets. And the shares of the short ETF's have been reduced. This means that when the Casino Bosses decide "it's time" there will be limited shares of the short ETFs available, meaning they will accelerate in price very quickly. JMHO
weekend update by tony caldaro
REVIEW
Markets rallied worldwide as the FED announced, thursday afternoon, an open ended QE 3 program. The FED plans to purchase MBS and USBs, at a rate of $40 bln/month, until they determine employment is improving and the economy is on solid ground. We fear the FED has now completed their normal cycle of undershoot, (not doing enough in 2008), to overshoot, (doing too much in 2012). During previous Quantitative Easing the FED announced their programs while the stock market and economy were heading lower. QE 1, ($75 bln/mth), was announced in March 2009 after the SPX had declined for 17 months and was at 720. QE 2, ($60 bln/mth), was announced in August 2010 after the SPX had lost 17% of its value and was at 1065. In both cases the economy was already in bad shape, (QE 1), or declining sharply, (QE 2). QE 3 was just announced with the stock market at bull market highs, and the economy already on the mend from its decline into its Q4 2011 low. While reviving the economy over the next year or so is probable. The price we may all pay, in the end, is inflation.
For the week the SPX/DOW were +2.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.30%. Asian markets gained 2.8%, European markets gained 2.3%, and the DJ World index rose 3.0%. Economic reports continued to improve with positive ones outnumbering the negatives ten to six. On the downtick: consumer credit, import prices, industrial production, capacity utilization, while both weekly jobless claims and the budget deficit increased. On the uptick: trade deficit, export prices, wholesale/business inventories, the CPI/PPI, retail sales, consumer sentiment, the M1 multiplier and the WLEI. Next week we get a look at Housing, the NY/Philly FED and Leading indicators. Best to your week!
LONG TERM: bull market
For about one year we have been calling for a bull market high around mid-late 2013 between SPX 1536 and 1556. With the FED's announcement of an open-ended QE 3 this week, we believe forecasting a top of this bull market, in price, has now become more difficult. The OEW waves, however, have tracked this bull market quite well. With the combination of the waves/trends, and our technical/fundamental indicators, we should be able to ride this bull market until it finishes.
For now, we will maintain our time window of mid-late 2013. Yet we believe the bull market will end about one to three months before QE 3 ends. The reason for this is the market's previous reaction to the ending of QE programs. The market initially topped in Apr10 when QE 1 was ended in Jun10. The market also topped in Mar/May11 when QE 2 was ended in Jun11. The market is quite likely to repeat this same pattern.
In regard to price, we will again maintain our SPX 1536 to 1556 target. Yet we believe this is now a minimum range rather than a maximum range for a bull market top. In fact, we would not be surprised if the market approached this range in 2012. Should this occur our bull market price target will be raised to SPX 1650-1700. We noted this change on the weekly chart.
The technicals for this bull market continue to track quite well. The MACD has remained mostly above neutral, similar to the 2002-2007 bull market. Plus, the RSI continues to get extremely overbought during uptrends, and only slightly oversold during downtrends. Currently both the MACD and RSI are still rising, suggesting further upside price activity ahead.
Our wave count continues to unfold as expected. This is a five Primary wave Cycle wave [1] bull market. Primary wave I consisted of five Major waves, with Major 1 subdividing into five Intermediate waves. After Primary I topped at SPX 1371, and Primary II bottomed at SPX 1075, Primary wave III was underway. Primary III is also unfolding in five Major waves, with a subdivided five Intermediate wave Major wave 1. Major wave 1 completed at SPX 1422/15 and Major 2 completed at SPX 1267. Major wave 3, this uptrend, has been underway since that low.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend new high SPX 1475
After the Major wave 2 low at SPX 1267 this current uptrend, Major wave 3, was underway. The initial rally to SPX 1363, and pullback to SPX 1309, was quite normal. After that the market became somewhat choppy for about one month. Then it started impulsing again. Since this is a Major wave 3 uptrend, we have been counting the five Intermediate waves that creates it. Intermediate wave i was, as noted above, SPX 1267-1363. Intermediate wave ii then bottomed at SPX 1309. Intermediate wave iii has been underway since that low.
Intermediate wave iii started to subdivide, into five Minor waves, around the time the market started to get choppy. Minor wave 1 ended at SPX 1374, Minor 2 ended at SPX 1329 in an irregular failed flat, Minor wave 3 ended at SPX 1427, Minor 4 ended recently at SPX 1397, and Minor wave 5 has been underway since then. The hourly chart displays this waves quite well. Within Minor wave 3 we also counted five Minute waves. This subdivision structure is also appearing in Minor wave 5.
Our original target to complete Minor 5 and also Intermediate wave iii was SPX 1463/64. At this level Int. iii = 1.618 Int. i, and Minor 5 = Minor 1. The market broke through this level on friday as it reached SPX 1475. The next fibonacci resistance area is SPX 1493/95. At this level Minor wave 5 = Minor 3 and Int. i. This is also within the range of the long term OEW 1499 pivot. This pivot should therefore offer more resistance than the SPX 1463/64 area. Should this pivot be reached during Intermediate wave iii, we would raise our target area for Major wave 3, this uptrend, to the OEW 1523 long term pivot. Medium term support is at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots.
SHORT TERM
Short term support is at SPX 1463/64 and the 1440 pivot, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Short term momentum hit its highest level during the entire bull market on friday, (RSI 98%), then declined to just under overbought by the close. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1412, with the swing point now at SPX 1440.
Our count for Minor wave 5 count appears to have gone quite well. In fact, the entire uptrend has progressed quite nicely. We can count five Minute waves up from the Minor 4 low at SPX 1397, and Minor 5 may have completed on friday.
*****Should the lower range of the current SPX 1463/64 support area, (1456-1471), fail to hold, then Intermediate wave iii likely ended at SPX 1475.
Support for Intermediate wave iv would begin at the 1440 pivot. Then regress to SPX 1422/27, 1413/16 or even 1402/03. Since fourth waves during this bull market have been relatively small, we believe the 1440 pivot range should hold for Int. wave iv support. Should this rally continue to the 1499 pivot, ending Int. iii, we still feel the OEW 1440 pivot range should still hold support for Int. wave iv. After Intermediate wave iv concludes we will still have a rising Intermediate wave v before this uptrend ends. Originally we expected this uptrend to end by late 2012 around the OEW 1499 pivot. The timing should still work out well, but this uptrend, Major wave 3, could continue higher to the OEW 1523 pivot or even the OEW 1552 pivot. It all depends on how much sideline money is put to work in the stock market. The 1552 pivot, btw, fits within the SPX 1536-1556 target noted much earlier in this report.
Overall the trend is up and the FED is fueling the shift back into risk assets. We'll just have to deal with the potential consequences when/if they arrive. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
The Asian markets were mostly higher, the SSEC was -0.2%, and gained 2.8%. Only China and Singapore have not confirmed uptrends.
The European markets were all higher gaining 2.3%. All uptrends in this group.
The Commodity equity group gained 5.4%. All uptrends and all higher on the week.
The DJ World index remains in an uptrend gaining 3.0% for the week.
COMMODITIES
Bonds had one of its worse weeks since early June -1.5%. Prices remain in a downtrend and 10yr yields reached 1.89% on friday.
Crude continues to uptrend, hitting $100.42 on friday, gaining 1.0% on the week.
Gold continues to uptrend as well. It gained 2.1% on the week after hitting a high of $1780.
The USD downtrend continues as the USD lost 1.8% on the week. The uptrending EURUSD soared 2.5%, while the JPYUSD slipped 0.2%.
NEXT WEEK
On monday: the NY FED at 8:30. On tuesday: the current Account deficit and the NAHB. On wednesday we get reports on: Housing starts, Building permits, and Existing home sales. Then on thursday: weekly Jobless claims, the Philly FED and Leading indicators. The FED only has a Flow of Funds report on thursday. Enjoy your weekend, week, and the bull market in equities.
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
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