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+6.1% gain on the ASX - looking good for today!
AU listing up ~2.5% currently. If this holds, expect a move back above 3 tomorrow.
Increased range is simply a market that moves more than half a percentage point. I look for 500-1000 moves in the Dow. Market is showing a buy signal somewhere in here, but could get a failure swing following. My terms are technically correct... but you had me going with your “clonk”...
You come up with some good ones like - What does this mean " I’ll trade futures when the market gets some major range going "
Sheesh - You totally lambasted me for labeling Resistance a Head Clonk
Low this morn. (currently) = 2.91 (down 5.15 % - not shown)
And yet see how "effective" (or valid) my Head Clonks are ?.....aka known as Resistance
The top's been extremely obvious for over a year
Have just had to know where to look
and have ALSO had to drown out all the B/S noise
All the pumping and cheerleading throughout social media
By persons who've never experienced a bear market
This market Is trash. I’m ready for it to collapse so I can pick up the pieces. But who knows how long it can last. I’ve decided for myself that it’s not worth the constant battle of trying to find the top. I’ll trade futures when the market gets some major range going
Well although barely visible, I'd say that's somewhat better.
And it's certainly better than a verbal description.
Now one question for you might be - Have you ever heard of a (bogus) 10 year bull market ever becoming at least a little bit over-extended ?
2.75 is the top of the support range on the previous ascending triangle and not only that you have fibs pointing at the 2.63 level for support. So since 2.75 is the beginning of the range for a falling price, I believe it’s a place to buy into it IF it even went there. You Still have support from the 3/28 low and the stock is trading right in that pocket at 3s.
IN Addition you have pretty blatant overall medium term uptrend in the stock, and you have buy signals showing up in RSI and %R levels
So its real simple for me -- All of this area its trading in is within a buy zone at $3s and below
Here's a chart
http://tos.mx/rgnFml
You keep "lecturing" me on how to "correctly" perform T.A.
And yet you're claiming that "2.75 is the top of support"
Like ; What the heck does THAT mean ?
"he top of support"......Is that like - even a thing ?
And if it IS why not SHOW it so's that us "rookies" can grasp it ?
Because currently I can't see 2.75 as like even (at all) BEING a thing.
IG Markets seems to be stopping making cannabis stocks available to trade by May 24th - due to lack of legal clarity. This maybe effecting ELLXF insert-text-here
Being that top of support is 2.75 range and literally only .30c from current price, ive started positioning here at this level. I was in from 2.20s 2.50s, 3s after the first pullback and it ran to 4s. Im doing great here and I havent bragged a single time. Yet your posts seem like you’re bragging. Just curious, Do you ever go long? Cause it looks like your bias is from the sell side.. so why not play your bias?
Why yes. I believe these boards COULD use my play by plays !
Which of course, one can "ignore" should they chose to do so.
I don't feel as though what I'm doing is harmful in any way....
Why, I might even be helping some. Who the heck knows ?
3 and 1/2 days ago.....Man did it Clonk ! :
3 and 1/2 days later :
This here was its' first Clonk !....(now almost 2 weeks ago)
I am really good at this.
ELLXF about to hit the big leagues with Bricks/Mortar distributions.
Are the tides turning in the booming hemp industry
Excellent article with some valid concerns, IMO. There are some charts included in the linked article.
https://thegreenfund.com/are-the-tides-turning-in-the-booming-hemp-industry?fbclid=IwAR3T7_aXrSC1LD1jpXt8D34_5DjElHsnBdvfNAgTSk9FSsVTcMzLJQr52Ck
By Mark Bernberg -
April 26, 2019
The Top Line
Elixinol – ASX’s hemp giant under threat?
Elixinol Global delivers subpar quarterly results
Quarter on quarter revenue declines 33%
Cash burn of $10m with cash balance at $27m
Ecofibre – the new gladiator on the block
Ecofibre lists on the ASX end of March
Stock up over 100% since then
Huge revenue projections for 2019 with aggresive US focus
The ASX-listed battle begins. Time to swap?
Elixinol Global
Elixinol Global, through its three business units, has a global presence in the cannabis industry focussed on hemp-derived CBD dietary supplements, hemp food, and wellness products, as well as cultivation and manufacture of medicinal cannabis products.
The company is comprised of three business units.
Elixinol USA, founded in 2014, is a manufacturer and global distributor of hemp dietary supplement and skincare products, with operations based out of Colorado, USA.
Hemp Foods Australia, founded in 1999, is a leading hemp food wholesaler, retailer, manufacturer and exporter of bulk and branded raw materials, and finished products.
Nunyara Pharma, formerly known as Elixinol Australia, was founded in 2014 to participate in the emerging Australian medicinal cannabis market and submitted licence applications for cultivation and manufacture to the Office of Drug Control in early 2018. These applications are currently pending approval.
The company was one of the best performers on the ASX in 2018 and delivered phenomenal returns to its shareholders over this time. A great story that rode the Hemp wave in 2018, and beyond, as Hemp was legalised in the US via the Farm Bill of 2018.
Elixinol has long been a favourite of The Green Fund and indeed has been in the Green Fund’s Paper Portfolio since its inception in January 2018. We have continuously pointed out to our readers why we saw so much value in the company and how well they were executing on their business plan. Simply put – it’s a great story.
But, like all great investors, one cannot be married to a stock or a story. When information and/or the situation changes, great investors should have the maturity, humility, and understanding to change their position too. With that in mind, let’s share the story of Elixinol’s latest quarter, and it doesn’t make for great reading.
Q1 2019
Elixinol reported Q1 total revenue of $8.2 million, which represented growth of 21% from a year ago but was 31% below Q4 sales of $11.8m. It is important to note that all players in the hemp market are seeing quarter on quarter growth, as the booming hemp and CBD industry opens up. Hence, a backward quarter is no good at all.
The company explained that the quarter on quarter revenue decline was driven by Elixinol’s strategic decision to reduce the focus on low margin private label business in the US, to enable increased capacity for the expected future growth of higher margin branded products, and to provide the ability to capture further market share.
We have no issue with companies looking to control margins and believe this should be top of the agenda for a lot of cannabis companies. However, we cannot understand the logic of not preparing the market for this. Surely, at the end of the previous quarter, management’s thinking around margin should have been given as guidance?
Compounding the matter is the fact that the company stated in the last quarter that revenue was their primary goal. CEO Paul Benhaim flagged increased costs in the March quarter when he stated that Elixinol was focused on chasing revenue.
“Our focus is not on profit… our focus is on growing revenues and taking advantage of the growing space to increase our market share. We feel that that is the most important thing to do right now,” he said.
Ambiguous at best
There is also much ambiguity about future margin. In speaking of the current situation in the US and UK markets, CEO Paul Benhaim said, “in the US, we are experiencing strong interest from national retailers to stock our products on the back of growing consumer demand. We are very excited to receive our first order from one of the largest national retailers in the US.
In the UK, significant retail agreements were signed during the quarter, which will see our CBD products advertised on TV and stocked on shelves in major retail stores and pharmacies in the coming months. We see similar opportunities across many of the global markets that we are currently operating in, with ongoing discussions expected to lead to further agreements over the coming quarters.”
It’s clear that Elixinol is planning, preparing and discussing the potential opportunities with suppliers and retailers, but not much substance to these discussions is being provided. It simply isn’t clear who is showing interest in the Elixinol product range. But it certainly isn’t CVS or Walgreens, as both have recently started stocking a range of CBD nutraceuticals from Elixinol’s competitors such as Curaleaf, Charlotte’s Web and CV Sciences.
The value of these ongoing “discussions” and the associated increased margins will become more apparent in the next Quarter, and this is something for investors to keep an eye on. At the end of the day, Elixinol’s management has stuck their neck out and declared their position with respect to future margin. Now they need to deliver on it.
Is the runway long enough?
Elixinol’s $8.2m in revenues was offset by just over $18m in operating expenses, resulting in a 288 per cent increase in cash burn ($10 million compared with $2.6 million in the previous quarter). To put this increase in cash burn into perspective, net cash used in operating activities for the entire 2018 financial year was only $5.8m. This is in sharp contrast to its US peers Charlotte’s Web and CV Sciences, who both generated positive cash flow from operations in their recent quarters.
Elixinol started the quarter with a strong cash balance of $43 million. However, they used $10m in operational activities and invested another $5m, leaving their cash balance at $27.4 million at the end of the quarter. Additionally, if one considers their guidance for the coming quarter of $24.7 million in cash outflows, it is clear that Elixinol has enough cash for the next two quarters, but will require more capital to fund the growth (and losses) of the business post that.
Overall, this is a shocking quarter for Elixinol and one that has us nervous about their prospects for 2019. The hemp-derived CBD market is getting more and more competitive every day. With the passing of the Farm Bill of 2018, more and more companies are moving into this space, including the large, cashed up, Canadian LP’s (Canopy Growth as an example, just invested $150m to launch its hemp play into the US market.)
In addition, Elixinol’s traditional competitors, Charlotte’s Web, and CV Sciences are both generating positive cash flow from operations, and are already gaining brand awareness and exposure on the shelves of some of the largest retail chains in the US.
But there is a new competitor that has entered the gladiatorial hemp arena. And a formidable one at that.
Ecofibre
Brisbane based Ecofibre has experience in breeding and growing hemp — knowledge that’s been commercialised over the past two years with growing sales and strong margins across its business units. Similar to Elixinol, Ecofibre’s hemp-centric business is comprised of three different business units.
Ananda Health
Ananda Health provides high-quality hemp derived nutraceutical products to the US market. This business has been in commercial operation since January 2017. By owning the whole value chain, from seed to shelf, they produce products for human and pet consumption, as well as topical creams and salves.
Ananda Professional brings to market the first fully compliant and legal CBD oil product line created specifically for the needs of independent pharmacies and healthcare professionals. This exclusive professional line meets strict safety standards with its pharmaceutical grade full spectrum cannabinoids.
Ecofibre currently has its cannabis-infused products in more than 2,000 US pharmacies, and according to Chairman, Barry Lambert, “is now at economic scale, profitable and growing rapidly.”
Ananda Food
Ananda Food, in operation since January 2018, provides 100% Australian grown hemp food to the Australian market. The business is focused on developing and ensuring supply of Australian grown hemp food and has a deep conviction that food safety, full traceability of supply and truth in labelling will underpin a sustainable quality business and lead to future opportunities in domestic and export markets.
Hemp Black
Hemp Black will provide sustainable hemp-based solutions that improve the technical properties of existing consumer and industrial products across a range of industry segments, including fashion, athleisure wear, healthcare, composites, and building materials.
Essentially, Hemp Black is a high-tech fibre textile with broad application. The fibre’s anti-microbial properties limit the spread of germs, and so it can be used in 3D printing, in hospitals or even for office furniture.
This business is expected to be a major future earnings driver with its innovative hemp-based products in textiles that Ecofibre is developing in partnership with Thomas Jefferson University in Philadelphia.
Top tier management
As mentioned above, Ecofibre’s Chairman is rich-lister Barry Lambert, best known for building Count Financial, which he sold in 2011 to Commonwealth Bank for $373 million. Lambert got involved with medical cannabis after his granddaughter was diagnosed with Dravet Syndrome – a severe form of epilepsy. The company’s CEO is Eric Wang, who was the former CEO of Perpetual, and it also looks pretty good on paper that Lambert holds a 24% stake in the group, while Wang controls 18%.
Ecofibre officially commenced trading on the ASX on the 29 March 2019. It opened at $1 per share and quickly rocketed from there. The company issued 20 million shares for pre-IPO proceeds of $20m which, unusually, was done without the help of any brokerage house.
The funds raised from backers like IMF Investors and Perennial Value, as well as Ecofibre founder Phil Warner and Caledonia fund manager Will Vicars, will be applied to expand Ecofibre’s businesses, with a strong emphasis on developing its high-tech fibre textile, Hemp Black.
Recently, Ecofibre released their March 2019 quarterly update. They didn’t have to, given the next reporting period post their listing would be the Q4 and Full Year 2019 results. However, as with anything in life, if you have something good to say…say it.
The numbers and guidance
Unaudited consolidated revenue of $10.1m (primarily from the Ananda Health business) resulted in an operating loss of only $1m. With their balance sheet fresh from the IPO, their net cash and cash equivalents position at the end of the quarter was $24m. At the current burn rate, that’s over 20 quarters of runway.
They also gave guidance that there will be a small profit for FY2019, following a loss of $8.7m in 2018. These results are expected to include:
FY19 Revenue more than 5.5x FY18 Revenue, driven primarily by Ananda Health
FY19 Gross Profit more than 11x FY18 Gross Profit due to scale efficiencies achieved in the vertically integrated Ananda Health business model
FY19 Operating Costs less than 2x FY18 Operating Costs, including costs associated with the growth of Ananda Health, investment into Hemp Black and Ananda Food, and costs associated with the recent listing of the business.
The Bottom Line
Elixinol’s quarter left us with many questions. They have forgiven revenue growth in search of the holy grail of higher margins, and they are going to need these, as their operating expenses are set to continue to increase, based on the guidance they gave. It is frustrating to put so much emphasis on margin decisions, and yet not give any guidance as to what they expect margins to be in the coming months and quarters.
This is the second bad quarter for Elixinol. In the previous quarter, they went from generating an operating profit, to an operating loss. All the talk of being the “only profitable” ASX listed pot stock went out the window, and this has been followed by an even worse quarter.
It’s not just the numbers that have us concerned. To be honest, management seems to be a little confused as to which path they are actually walking – margin or growth? Last quarter it was a case of “forget margins, we’re chasing revenue” and now, in this quarter, the double-back, reverse 360 with “revenue is one thing, but higher-margin revenue is where the focus lies.”
They are going to need to raise more cash and this is sure to place downward pressure on the stock price. Although, to be fair, given the growth the share price has seen over the past 12 months, a pullback is inevitable, capital raise or not.
The new kid on the block certainly has the right credentials and the right connections. It has opened with immense strength and posted solid FY19 Q3 financials. The company is very well capitalised, and the execution strategy is fully-funded. We like the management team, the story, and the momentum, and believe they have the potential to topple Elixinol as Emporer of the ASX-listed hemp stocks.
Watch this space…
TAGS
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Ecofibre
Elixinol
Hemp
ELLXF:Global hemp manufacturer frustrated in Australia
https://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/global-hemp-manufacturer-frustrated-in-australia
Apr26
The Australian-listed company that brought you the hemp burger remains frustrated in Australia despite being close to its goal of profitability internationally, according to the company.
Elixinol Global (ASX: EXL), listed in Australia with a market capitalisation of $632 million but headquartered in the United States, just reported revenue of $11.7 million for the first quarter of 2019.
Earlier it recorded a loss of $860,000 in calendar 2018 despite analysts predicting the company would report its first-ever profit in the year selling non-intoxicating hemp products.
The company blamed a shift in focus away from lower-margin private-label products for a drop in revenue in the first quarter.
Elixinol also paid $9 million in the quarter to buy 25 per cent of US-based hemp pet treat company, Altmed Pets, which trades under the brand, Pet ReLeaf.
While Elixinol’s products are non-intoxicating, the company has plans to establish a medical cannabis farming and manufacturing operation.
The company said the application by its Australian Nunyara Pharma business for cultivation and manufacturing licenses locally remained stalled with the Office of Drug Control.
“There was no change in the status of licensing during the quarter, and we remain optimistic despite the ODC being unable to provide any timing on granting of both licenses.”
In February the company bought a 60-acre lot in New South Wales northern rivers district for $2.6 million.
“Nunyara’s integrated cultivation and manufacturing facility has progressed with work started post reporting period on preparing the land on where (sic) (the) company’s state of the art facility will be constructed.”
The company plans a first stage, 5,000 square metre processing facility.
Meanwhile Elixinol continues selling its Essential Hemp snack bar range in Australia under the Hemp Foods Australia Brand.
It added a ground veggie pattie or hemp burger to the range in the first quarter.
“Hemp Food Australia’s priority is to source locally grown hemp seeds where available while continuing its activities with overseas suppliers from Europe, North America and organic seed suppliers from China.”
Picture: Elixinol Global/hemp burger
Subscribe to our free @AuManufacturing newsletter here.
By Peter Roberts
April 26, 2019
Decent place to play here, for a move back to 3.40 and potential triangle breakout once over 4. Basing trade on low, end of March prior to 4+ run. Should base here - my thoughts
record quarterlies announced - growth growth growth every quarter - perfect buying opportunity
Umm, How do you say oversold in Spanish
I don't see it. Not sure either company would want to give up control of the foundation they have each respectively built. They are both essentially the same company, except Elixinol had international exposure. It really wouldn't be that beneficial for CWEB to purchase Elixinol just for the international business. CWEB can get license and enter the international market at a cheaper cost than purchasing a company to do so.
I have had LEVB on watch list since they announced acquisition of cbdMD... but then CEO dumped almost 500k of shares @$4 in February and March and left me scratching my head with this move..
Did you do any DD on him ?
Buyout candidate for cweb its coming
they could go lower and still be bullish. but i dont know if i see the point of talking about them going lower and never pulling the trigger when they go there. i dont know what stocks you're in, but these are mine. aint nobody pullin the trigger here but me.
If you want a CBD stock that's just getting started and is at a point similar to buying CWBHF and ELLXF in jan-march, LEVB is looking super bullish. no position on that one yet. i think i can grab the first dip on it though. maybe 5.30s as a starter
ELLXF and CWBHF essentially have identical trading patterns if you look closely, but Elixinol is a quite bit stronger. not sure what that means at the moment, but as long as this base holds (since late march) i think new 52s soon, in both stocks.
There was a big wall at 3.38 in am.. I slapped it to add some for a quick trade since bid was strong.. next wall was at 3.5 and that's gone now as well.. ask is very thin again now. Whoever wanted to be out, is out. We should be back to 3.8 again no problem
Bought my last tranche today. Have a full position now but will buy more in the event of a great average down scenario presents itself.
Build that pile it’ll pay in the end
Elixinol to acquire 25% equity interest in Pet Releaf,the market leading US-based CBD pet products company
https://www.elixinolglobal.com/site/PDF/2438_0/Elixinolacquires25ofUSbasedPetReleaf
Solid quarter, plenty of cash, scaled back private label (which they were simply creating their own competitors) to focus more on building their own brand. Grow operations in Australia on track, recyclable/biodegradable hemp plastic in the works.....Onward Ellxf
"Elixinol Ltd results: Why this ASX pot stock dropped today"
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/04/23/elixinol-ltd-results-why-this-asx-pot-stock-dropped-today/
Lachlan Hall | April 23, 2019 | More on: EXL
The Elixinol Ltd (ASX: EXL) share price has fallen 2% this morning as investors had a mixed reaction to the company’s March 2019 quarterly results.
What did Elixinol announce this morning?
Elixinol reported Q1 2019 group revenue of $8.2 million, representing a 21% increase on the prior corresponding period (pcp) and a 31% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) decline.
Management attributed the QoQ decline to the company’s decision to reduce the focus on low margin private label business in the US to enable increased capacity for the expected growth of higher margin branded products and provide the ability to capture further market share.
Elixinol reported a strong financial position and a healthy balance sheet with $27.4 million in cash as at quarter end with US retail broker Presence Marketing appointed to help it reach into more than 15,000 retail stores.
The company’s regional highlights included the commencement of US national distribution sales beginning Q2 2019 following an initial order for 13 Elixinol branded CBD topical and dietary supplement products from a large ‘bricks and mortar’ national retailer initially across 330 stores with expectations of a rollout to more than 1,000 stores.
The industrial hemp and emerging medicinal cannabis company also reached a European promotional partnership agreement with Cambrian Alliance Group (UK) and received a purchase order for distribution in a popular UK high-end retailer among other ongoing conversations.
What’s been happening to the Elixinol share price?
The Elixinol share price has rocketed 85.5% so far this year to $4.99 per share amid solid earnings and strong growth prospects for the company and sector as a whole.
With a market cap of $621.5 million, Elixinol is no small player in the growing cannabis sector despite this morning’s early volatility.
Since January 2018, the company’s share price has nearly trebled in what has been a real outperformer on the ASX in recent times.
I’m reasonably bullish on the stock in the long-term despite the potential regulatory headwinds and I would expect the stock to soar higher if a Labor government is elected in the May Federal Election.
For those who want to look at other options within the hemp and cannabis sector, this top-rated stock could be another great option for Fools looking to improve portfolio gains in 2019.
One ASX Stock For An Estimated $US22 Billion Marijuana Market
A little-known ASX company just unlocked what some experts think could be the key to profiting off the coming marijuana boom.
And make no mistake – it is coming. To the tune of an estimated $US22 billion.
Cannabis legalisation is sweeping over North America, and full legalisation arrived in Canada in October 2018.
Here's the best part: we think there's one ASX stock that's uniquely positioned to profit immensely from this explosive new industry... taking savvy investors along for what could be one heck of a ride.
AND, this is the first time The Motley Fool Australia has EVER put a BUY recommendation on a marijuana stock.
Either would be huge let’s hope for both
Bought the land for Nunyara - 60 acres.
I wonder if its CVS? Walgreens etc that they are referring to as the brocks and mortar stores in the US?
The price will hold up just fine.
Looks like you are wrong in your price predictions.
So, basically:
-31% revenue decline QoQ
-Dramatically increased inventory in anticipation of an expected increase in consumer demand
-Improved balance sheet from Q4 (IIRC), cash of 27.4m
-Signed an agreement with Presence Marketing to gain shelf placement and support product sales on an ongoing basis throughout the US.
-Partnered with Multiply, "a nationally recognised PR and Analytics Agency"
-Received an order for 13 SKUs from a large brick and mortar national retailer initially across 330 stores; expecting a rollout to over 1000 US stores
In the UK:
-Reached an agreement with Cambrian Alliance Group, which has over 1200 member pharmacies, rollout commenced in April
-Entered into a sales and distribution agreement with a major distributor; they received a purchase order for 60,000 units of 6 SKUs for distribution across 250 stores
In AU:
-Still no update on licensing for Nunyara
They justify the revenue decrease as "driven by Elixinol’s strategic decision to reduce focus on low margin private label business in the US to enable increased capacity for expected future growth of higher margin branded products and provide the ability to capture further market share."
Don't know how much of the distribution news is new, but tomorrow is likely to be a decline. EXL currently down over 3%.
https://www.elixinolglobal.com/site/PDF/2436_0/QuarterlyReportandAppendix4C
1st quarter financials
A bunch of notices out on the upcoming Annual General Meeting on May 23rd insert-text-here
This looks great!
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