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Forget both the technical charts and the fundamentals. Investor fear and/or exuberance controls the share price. But, investors should buy or sell based on fundamental values and use the charts to check to see if a stock is moving up and down accordingly. But since fear and exuberance are two values that move the market the most, sometimes investors need to follow the crowd no matter whether the crowd is right or wrong.
However, there are times when the wise investors needs to stick to the fundamentals and let the technical charts and the crowd go their own way.
This is exactly what is going on with ESV share price. Investors got exuberant and the price run up too high. Then all the talking heads on Bloombergs TV, plus the cancellation of one lousy rig contract, and the recent drop to $26.50 for a barrel of WTI scared ESV investors and the price shot down into oversold territory.
At this point in time, ESV has a Relative Strength Index of only 31 signaling a quick return to about $9.25 per share.
Many talking heads on Bloombergs love to point out the oversupply of crude inventory. If you counted the times Bloombergs delivered the financial news without throwing in little digs designed to depress longs, your number would be very low indeed. These idiots work for the short side of the market, not the long side. It's easier to convince the average investor that the sky is falling in a down market than it is to convince them an upturn is on the way.
It is true that oversupply of crude should reduce prices if you are looking at the short term. But this ain't the way the oil services (OS) sector works. If you buying OS companies you need to be looking at where oil will be next year. Forget the next few months. The smart OS investor knows that the most money is made by those they get in at the bottom of a downturn. I've made a lot of money buying beat up oil service stocks at the bottom. Sure crude will bounce up and down many more times in the next 60 days and so will ESV. But if you get in now under $10.00 and hold tight, you could easily see a triple in one year. I can guarantee a double for sure, and likely in 6 months.
Frankly, I see an extreme shortage of crude coming. We could run up quickly to $150.00 barrel. Here's why... most of the world's crude comes for mega oil deposits found 40 years. This fields are old and need to be worked on a regular basis if they are to continue to produce. The down turn caused producers to back down on spending. This will hurt when demand moves higher. I compare this to the North Sea. The area could make a come back with large drilling investments but the majors are looking for new giants in calmer seas, not the old ones. If we lose 4-5 old mega fields, then drilling day rates could run to the moon.
And, there is a lot of offshore rigs coming out of service right now. A lot of smaller companies can not afford to maintain the ones they must park. Rust will destroy these rigs in a few months. Other companies are scraping a lot of rigs for salvage value. SeaDrill is in deep dodo and may not survive. ESV, RIG, and DO are the survivors. ESV bought Pride in the last downturn and might even have a go at SeaDrill. Whatever happens ESV will emerge much stronger than before.
I was thinking about that, your timing was great!
Holy Smokes. I'm in at 7.81 and it pops to 8.32 in less than an hour. AA popped also. Boy did time those moves right!
I agree. I do see crude correcting back to $34 and holding for the next 2-3 months and then moving up to $40 by the middle of the summer driving season.
The damage has already been done. The vicious wolf at the door has already ate the poison hamburger meat. All we need now is wait a few more months until the beast dies. Really, there are so many massive cuts in Capex that we stand a good chance or running out of crude by mid-2016. We could easily see $140 if that happens.
benchman, I'm back in ESV at $7.81... I'm gonna try to hold for the long pull. I'm also in Alcoa for $7.20... I'll hold here to if the financial world does not come to an end.
I been day trading like crazy just to lower my averaged-in share prices. It's been stressful but I made money. PUT SWN on your watch list for a day trade. The stocks moves up and down. Just watch for a while and you see.
Maybe we will end up in a war with North Korea or Russia or in the Middle East and need lots of crude for our battle ships and aluminum for new jet fighters. If so, I got a good driller and aluminum smelter. I should do okay in World War Three. he he ha ha
I just don't believe the talking heads on Bloombergs. They sound like used car salesmen trying to sell a piece of junk. I honestly thing that Bloombergs in manipulating the market. Why don't they just deliver the news and leave their idiot opinions out of it? But the talking heads got to give you their version of the world and then tell you exactly how you should think about it.
Jesus, there would be no financial problems if there was no Bloombergs TV to lead the idiots around by the nose.
It's really funny... Bloombergs talking about a market crash for an hour. Then they announce that Trip Advisor beat the street and was up 13%. I guess were going into a depression because folks are traveling everywhere on a vacation and spending too much money! Airlines are also book solid while people jump from vacation spot to the next, spending money like it was water. Jesus, you got to book a flight 2 months in advance--that's typical for being a depression. I own an apartment complex in an Asian country. We are having a depression here because we are always full of tourists spending money like it was water. We have hire extra staff... I be glad when this depression is over.
Great buyback! Oil will not be going much lower. I have seen stories that Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Russia are close to having discussions on production cuts. Those cuts will happen. It's just a matter of when.
Good luck to you!
benchman, I'm back in ESV at $7.81... I'm gonna try to hold for the long pull. I'm also in Alcoa for $7.20... I'll hold here to if the financial world does not come to an end.
I been day trading like crazy just to lower my averaged-in share prices. It's been stressful but I made money. PUT SWN on your watch list for a day trade. The stocks moves up and down. Just watch for a while and you see.
Maybe we will end up in a war with North Korea or Russia or in the Middle East and need lots of crude for our battle ships and aluminum for new jet fighters.
I just don't believe the talking heads on Bloombergs. They sound like used car salesmen trying to sell a piece of junk. I honestly thing that Bloombergs in manipulating the market. Why don't they just deliver the news and leave their idiot opinions out of it? But the talking heads got to give you their version of the world and then tell you exactly how you think about it.
Jesus, there would be no financial problems if there was no Bloombergs TV to lead the idiots around by the nose.
You could move back into ESV now, below your sell price from last week.
that's a good buy! I just moved in the Alcoa Aluminum now selling for just under $8... This too is a good buy and outside the oil sector. I recommend you pick some shares at $8 or under just in case crude drops back to test $27.
Nice! I had a medical procedure this morning, so I put an order in to buy ESV at $9.20, GTC (I put the order in yesterday). It executed this morning. I am holding onto them. Good luck to you!
sold NOV at close on Friday. Back daytrading ESV. Pickup 4K at 9.17 and sold them quick for 9.26
Can't tell which oil is headed. I'm afraid it might drop back to retest $27.
Hoping ESV drops to $9 in a little panic selling. Also hoping to pick up NOV at 27.00
NOV is a volatile day trade stock for short gain. It tracts WTI most of the time but breaks this tract on certain occasions. I'm gonna need to figure out what the "certain occasions" that the market maker is using as buy and sell signals so I can trade a few steps in front of him. My plan now is to buy and sell for a few weeks and work my averaged buy-in price down. I don't like long term holding when the price dips below my buy-in.
I think NOV will move up 8% in the next 10 trading days if crude holds above $30.
NOV will recover after drillers, but when it does, it will run up to maybe $60 to $70 per share. I can deal with that.
Like I said, I am sorry to hear that. I have done that same mistake before. What I try to do now is just sell half. You never know with ESV. Yesterday could have been the bottom, and now we trend higher, or we have another dip soon.
Good luck with your other positions!
Yea, looks like I missed the boat. I been kicking my butt all day. Practically every stock I follow up 10% and NOV up 1%.
But I now got a nice load of NOV under $27.50 and I'm holding. NOV has been under selling pressure because of a shit quarter. I think the selling will end later today. In fact, its starting to move up now. I think NOV will return to $30 by Monday's close if oil don't take another crash. NOV held above $30 when crude hit $27. I think it will hold $30 going forward. NOV pays 7% dividend at current prices. It really is a solid buy and hold.
That's what I want to do for awhile. Getting tired of spending my whole day clued to this screen. I got other fish to fry. NOV is a stock you can check on every few days without worrying too much about a crash. Just put in a tight stop sell order and forget about it. ESV and RIG make me nervous... you can't even go take piss without concern they might drop 2% - 3%.
I missed another big winner today. I day traded FCX for 3-4 months and knew it would turn around. It popped 20% today.
Take care beachman. check out NOV.
Sorry about how this turned out on ESV for you. I think you had 12,000 shares? Did you decide to jump back in today anyway?
ESV passed $9.80 and $10.00 resistance. Next resistance should be $10.50-$10.58.
Hmmm, maybe not. All of a sudden there is pre-market buying above yesterday's close. I guess we'll see.
Looks like you'll get your chance to buy back cheaper here this morning. Good luck!
Made mistake selling my ESV, but made a nice pick-up with NOV. I like NOV because it's not driller although it does build rigs. But I also like ESV. NOV is less volatile, but both will move up nicely. If I get a chance, I'll pick up so ESV on the dips.
Just bought NOV at 27.40 -- It disappointed by 4 cents and dropped 10%. The company is one of the best in the business. The stock drifts up and down a lot but usually ends the day up. I think the 10% haircut was overdone. $27.40 is a 15 year low. I think it will head back up at least $1.50 in the next few days.
Good luck! I try do that at times as well.
Thanks. It looks like it's tracking the market right now. Nice rebound in progress.
about 15 minutes ago. I got it twitter
crude traders must have been expecting a bigger build because WTI and Brent are both up after the news release. I favor the report that says crude hits $60 by the end of 2016. I think ESV will reach $25 with $60 oil.
I been though 3 oil crashes. This one is the nutty one. I think we will end up with a shortage of crude with a run to maybe $80 by year's end.
happy trading....
At what time did the report come out?
crude oil inventory up 7.9 million barrels
http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
We will take a little hit here for a few hours. This is just a temporary setback while the market absorbs the news. Everybody is nervous and ready to hit the sell button on any news.
I added at $8.51 today as well. I agree dwms!! Going to be great in a month or two.
I just loaded 6K at 8.50... Man this stock is a sleeper. ESV investors are obviously in for the long pull because the volume in this sell off is so damned low. Here's a great driller with lots of cash, good backlog, and a great reputation in the industry. You got to own ESV here. Were can the bottom be? We are already at a 20 year low right now ($8.50). ESV has not been this low since 1995. This is a stock you buy, put it away, and forget about it! It's out lucky day, benchman!
Added here at $8.80. How about you?
Love your projections! You may get that $9.50 close as well. I also have my mother in law in this stock. She will hold longer than I for sure.
You are so right about the SEC and how they screw the little guy.
Good luck to you. I am sure we'll see each other again.
The $9.40 price is where the market maker starts selling short to keep the price from running up. He needs to get as many cheap shares as he can. We day traders stop dumping under $9.40 the price will need to move on up. I see a $9.50 close. But really don't make any difference. We got to get use to buy and hold for at least 6 months. I think by July 1st, we will see ESV at $15.00 and at least $20 by the end of 2016.
Anyway, I'm glad to see some action of this board. I like to make my predictions in writing so I can go back latter and see where my thinking was right or wrong.
I been trading drillers online since 1993 when Ameritrade first open. The scams have changed over the years but they are still plenty of them. The big scammers are even getting bolder. The SEC puts limits on the little trader and lets the big boys rob and steal and trick and lie all they want. The SEC is a big joke. I got investigated back in 1997 for market manipulation. They said I was pumping and dumping stocks on the Yahoo chat group. he he ha ha. I laugh in their face and told them to file a case if they really wanted to insult themselves. Can you imagine, the SEC chasing mice while the big rats were running around everywhere cheating, lying, and stealing.
Anyway, I got to run now. Hope we meet again.
That would be great. It's having a little trouble with $9.40 right now, but hopefully can bust through. Wish I would have added at under $9, but am happy with the rebound.
LOL on China. They probably did invent it...
big sell off... ha ha ha ha.... it's 1:26 pm and volume is 4 million shares, 2.5 million below an average day. Humm... the selling better increase or Citibank will found guilty of attempt to pull a fast one on ESV investors.
It's 1:26 pm and ESV is selling for $9.40, 13 cents up from where it opened this morning. To me, this proves beyond a shadow of doubt that ESV is a solid BUY. No weak stock could take a nasty hit/raid like Citigroup handed out and recover completely in only a few hours. A stock that was HOLD rated would have crumbled and took two weeks to recover. GOOD SHOW ESV!!!!
My bet is that ESV closes above $9.50; it ran up to $9.60 before the bullshit news was released. Volume is low so there is ABSOLUTELY NO SELL OFF. This was pure market manipulation designed to run the price down and give Citigroup insiders a chance to steal some shares. They picked on ESV because it trades without a lot of fanfare and not a lot of smart day traders. They will likely short it every time it crawls up for the next few hours, but they will not go into the weekend short ESV. Far too dangerous. They will clear their short position before the close. ESV will close close to $9.50 and be up on monday to $10...
I'm gonna hold until next week to see what crude does. I think the Russians will get OPEC to agree, but we will not see any price run up above $35 until after the US frackers file BK. Then I think we'll see $45 by year's end. I got 12K shares and might as well hold them for the long pull. I see at least a double before Christmas.
And let me tell about China. I think China has been lying about oil demand. I think demand has been a million barrels per day more than they announced. They have been buying crude like crazy, telling everyone they were building strategic reserves. I think they been lying to keep the price down. The Chinese invented lying back in 5,000 B.C.
I completely agree dwms, I made lots of money on this stock back in 1999 when it was around these prices. I have visited the company as well. Great people.
beachman, I think ESV is the big sleeper of all the offshore drillers. Management refused to promote or brag about anything. They just do their job and let the share price take care of itself. I can easily see ESV back to $30 by the end of the year if the Russian and the Saudi's make a deal.
I think crude needs to move up to the high $30's until demand picks up. I'm looking at India as the wild card in demand. Holy smokes, the got almost the same population as China but only 1 car per 15 families. Can you imagine how much oil they will use if the get up 3 cars in 15 families. And, no body talks about Indian. They are smart people and want desperately to enter the 21st Century.
In my opinion, offshore drillers have a long way to run up from here, but we need patience. Anybody that buys ESV under $15 dollars will double their money every year for the next 3-4 years. Crude has one big huge blow out coming and then its bye bye.
I couldn't believe it either. I own 2,000 shares at an average of $9.31. I am looking to add a 1,000 more shares if it goes to the 52-week low. It seems to be rebounding now.
I couldn't believe it. I did quick search and see the stupid downgrade by Citigroup. I know right away that this was a huge manipulation. Jesus, I caught the same thing in FORD yesterday. Made $2000 in a few hours. The crooks and the manipulators are working their butts. I hope you got a wagon load.
ESV is the best bottom fishing in the world! I have never seen a stock will so much up potential selling at such low price! ESV has almost $5 per share in cash. It pays $0.60 share in dividends. It has a book value of over $38 per share. The current price of $9.05 is insanely ridiculous. I was buying this stock for $9 with crude was selling for $26. Brent is now selling for over $35. ESV was selling for $9.55 this morning. It will be selling for at least $9.50 at the close today. Here's a quick 30 cents a share profit by the close of the day. Load you're wagon... enjoy...
Yeah, I am moving more money to my account for this. I am sure citigroup shorted this down, and then will have clients load up in the $8's.
ESV is victim of market manipulation. The sell off this morning in not a general sell off. ESV volume is normally 7 million share per day. The stock has only sold 2 million and it is already 11:30 PM. If this was a big sell off by major investors, we would see volume over 6 million already. The slow way the stock is selling, I don't think ESV will reach normal volume. This is pure market manipulations. Load up... you'll make a short term killing! I'm as long as my money will allow.
Chart was looking so good before the downgrade. Higher lows and higher highs, plus the MACD bullish crossover coming.
The shares of ENSCO PLC (NYSE:ESV) currently has mean rating of 3.03 while 3 analysts have recommended the shares as “BUY”, 4 recommended as “OUTPERFORM” and 18 recommended as “HOLD”. The rating score is on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 stands for strong buy and 5 stands for sell.
The company’s mean estimate for sales for the current quarter ending Dec-15 is 869.59 million by 21 analysts. The means estimate of sales for the year ending Dec-15 is 4.01 billion by 27 analysts.
The mean price target for the shares of ENSCO PLC (NYSE:ESV) is at 18.89 while the highest price target suggested by the analysts is 60.00 and low price target is 9.00. The mean price target is calculated keeping in view the consensus of 31 brokerage firms.
The average estimate of EPS for the current fiscal quarter for ENSCO PLC (NYSE:ESV) stands at 0.74 while the EPS for the current year is fixed at 4.37 by 22.00 analysts.
The next one year’s EPS estimate is set at 2.27 by 36.00 analysts while a year ago the analysts suggested the company’s EPS at 4.37. The analysts also projected the company’s long-term growth at -37.14% for the upcoming five years.
In its latest quarter ended on 30th September 2015, ENSCO PLC (NYSE:ESV) reported earnings of $0.90. The posted earnings topped the analyst’s consensus by $0.16 with the surprise factor of 21.60%. In the matter of earnings surprises, the term “Cockroach Effect” is often implied. Cockroach Effect is a market theory that suggests that when a company reveals bad news to the public, there may be many more related negative events that have yet to be revealed. In the case of earnings surprises, if a company is suggesting a negative earnings surprise it means there are more to come.
I am sure they have an agenda. I agree with you, ESV does not deserve a downgrade. Thanks for posting this. I was wondering why ESV was down, despite oil and the market being up.
Citigroup--huge mistake to downgrade ESV! Here is a solid driller, the #1 in customer satisfaction insanely downgrade by Citigroup! The downgrade said:
Shares of Ensco Plc (NYSE:ESV) opened at 9.37 on Friday. The company’s market capitalization is $2.21 billion. Ensco Plc has a 1-year low of $8.77 and a 1-year high of $32.28. The firm has a 50-day moving average price of $13.04 and a 200-day moving average price of $15.83.
Ensco Plc (NYSE:ESV) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, October 28th. The offshore drilling services provider reported $0.78 earnings per share for the quarter, hitting the Zacks’ consensus estimate of $0.78. The firm earned $1.01 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $914.04 million. Ensco Plc’s quarterly revenue was down 15.7% compared to the same quarter last year. Equities analysts anticipate that Ensco Plc will post $4.37 earnings per share for the current year.
Ensco (NYSE:ESV) says it plans to cut an additional 14% of its onshore support jobs to reduce costs by an incremental $30M/year amid weak oil and gas prices; the offshore driller employed ~8,500 people globally as of late February.
Ensco (NYSE:ESV): Q2 EPS of $1.18 beats by $0.13.
Revenue of $1.07B (-6.1% Y/Y) beats by $20M.
Ensco (NYSE:ESV) -1.1% AH after the offshore drilling contractor says ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) confirmed a notice of termination for a three-year contract on the Ensco DS-9 drillship.
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