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"..........the market's done nothing but add confidence to my bearish lean."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Yesterday no doubt came as a surprise to people who don't read these updates, as SPX continued lower from Blue 4, ultimately dropping through a level that many bulls thought was going to act as strong support.
Let's look at the SPX chart first, which (spoiler alert) mentions the primary target for Wave 5 (if blue Wave 4 doesn't become more complex, and if blue 5 neither extends nor truncates), which, coincidentally enough, aligns right with the location where I previously placed the Wave 5 label, along with some other zones of interest:"
Next up is NYA:
Next is INDU:
COMPQ (nothing new here):
"And finally, TLT is reaching a zone that probably needs to act as support. Funny thing is, this is a falling support zone, so it could always bounce along down this zone like a slinky (if slinkies bounced, that is. You know what I mean!). So even if it finds support at this zone, it doesn't necessarily mean a big rally."
"In conclusion, not much to add to the past few updates, which means the last few updates were on the right track and the market's done nothing but add confidence to my bearish lean. Incidentally, if today begins with a little bounce back up over 76, then there's a reasonable chance that the overnight low is a corrective b-wave -- meaning the overnight futures low would be revisited and broken soon after (the overnight low sits down near ~4253 cash equivalent, though this isn't an exact equivalent, so allow a little leeway). Trade safe.."
".......just a word of caution that the market sometimes doesn't move in straight lines."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"I believe it was Jon Keynard Maynes (distant cousin of the more famous "John Maynard Keynes") who once said, after a few beers, "The market can remain insolvent longer than you can remain rational." (Although some reports suggest he may have said, "I'm not gonna drink none of yer important... imported... GAH-rbage. Pabst! Blue! Ribbon!")
Whichever quote is accurate, he no doubt meant it.
And I bring this up today as a simple, yet poignant, reminder that drinking and speaking don't mix. (Support MADS: Mofos Against Drunk Speaking.)
And also as a reminder that even if everything goes swimmingly for the bears from here forward in terms of them getting the exact wave count they want, the market can always still grind sideways before getting rolling. Not that I'm predicting this, mind you, any more than Jon Keynard Maynes was predicting the rise and fall of Pabst Blue Ribbon -- it's just a word of caution that the market sometimes doesn't move in straight lines.
SPX made another slight high since last update, and while there are potentially enough waves for a complete 4, it's as yet unclear if it still wants one more minor high (as we'll see on the INDU chart after this one):"
INDU:
"In conclusion, the early stages after an ambiguous pattern are always touch and go, as the pattern leading in provides little confidence one way or the other, at least until we see a bit more of the decline. I can say that the first wave down from yesterday's high appeared impulsive, suggesting at least one more wave down of similar or larger size -- but whether that will terminate the decline at "3 down" and make another high after, or whether we just saw the start of the turn down to new lows, I cannot yet say with high confidence. Trade safe."
the coming 100 year bear market LOL
can you guess who this is of course super bear robert prechter
ew traders
use 100 year old methodology and even in an up market take the bear count
those markets were trending
2 day liquidation break took out all the sellers
70 pct of the time the market is balancing
we are close to the top of the balance area
"SPX is still undefined regarding the potential 4th wave:"
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
So I've been holding my tongue on this, but it's time to toot my own horn for a minute on a prediction I made almost exactly a year and a half ago, because it probably won't hold forever. This prediction was based on my analysis of the real estate market back in April of 2022. As far as I know, I was the first analyst to make this very specific prediction... key here is "as far as I know. It's entirely possible someone else beat me to it, but if they did, I don't know about it -- what I recall at the time was that many people were predicting a precipitous drop (or an outright crash) in housing as interest rates rose. Which obviously didn't happen, in large part for the exact reasons that I highlighted on April 18, 2022. As I wrote then:
This means that as the music stops and mortgage rates rise, we have a much different dynamic in play this time. Rising rates do, of course, have an impact on future affordability -- but they have no impact on families already in a home (presuming these families have a fixed-rate mortgage, which, as we already covered, the vast majority do). If anything, rising rates might tend to inspire people to hang on to their homes longer instead of putting them up for sale, which would have a tightening effect on inventory. After all, if you're in a mortgage at ~3%, what possible incentive do you have to ever exit that loan with inflation running above or near 8%?
As I mentioned earlier, inflation should provide a tailwind for housing -- in more ways than one. If my reasoning above is in the right ballpark, then rising rates may, perhaps counterintuitively, provide impetus for inventory to ultimately balance. Houses might spend more days on market due to fewer buyers, but if fewer homes are being brought to market in the first place because families are incentivized to stay put (or to turn their old 3% mortgage home into a long-term rental), those seemingly-opposed forces could tend to counteract each other.
And, of course, now that my initial prediction has become reality, everyone treats it like it was obvious all along. Below are CNBC's bullet points from a couple months ago; basically exactly what I'd speculated would happen, back in April 2022:
The recent spike in mortgage rates has created a so-called golden handcuff effect.
Nearly 82% of homeowners feel “locked-in” by their existing low-rate mortgage, according to data from Realtor.com.
In the meantime, the shortage of homes for sale is pushing up prices.
So, anyway, I just had to get that off my chest. I see it everywhere now and I see this "Well of COURSE that's what happened!" attitude from pundits and analysts who didn't foresee this coming at all, so I'm publishing this in lieu of cussing at my screen.
Anyway, market-wise, we have some interesting things to look at today. Let's start with an old legacy chart I first published years ago, whose trend lines seem to find their way back to relevance again and again:"
"Next, we have another old legacy chart with a long-term support line:"
Next, COMPQ:
"SPX and the old (not nearly as old as the first two charts, of course) green trend line:"
"SPX is still undefined regarding the potential 4th wave:"
"And finally, the two most obvious very-near-term options:"
"Worth noting that in the event of sustained trade below Friday's low, and 4270-90 SPX would be the next meaningful support zone. Trade safe."
Not Much to Add
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"There's nothing to add to the past few updates, so just one chart today:"
"In conclusion, not much else to say yet that hasn't already been said. Trade safe."
looks like subwave 4 all done
now on to 5
missed spy target by a few point
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=14&i=p46857756371&a=234724271&r=1593092184058
3 days up or down
then you get exhaustion
above the 9/14
feels like pull back to 20da ma
https://schrts.co/WREeGGCH
pullback to spy 60 20da ma
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=14&i=p46857756371&a=234724271&r=1593092184058
Where's the chart?
".....the strength of the bounce has given many bears pause (paws?) and I'd be lying if I didn't say it has at least made me wonder."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"The market continued rallying since last update, and while the strength of the rally took many bears by surprise, the location of the bottom was pretty well telegraphed in the charts earlier. On October 4, I mentioned that NYA had captured its standing target from September 7 and wrote: "targets often act as support/resistance, so this could lead to a near-term bounce." With that, I placed the 3/C label (with a ?) where it still sits today:"
'If memory serves, I actually wrote about this inflection zone months ago, predicting at the time that we'd reach the 3/C inflection with no overlap of the prior wave 1 high in SPX, leading to a time where everything was in limbo. (I'd quote it here, but I don't have time to search that deeply at the moment.)
On the rally end, so far SPX did continue higher (as noted was possible last update) and has not overlapped blue 1 (SPX has a slightly different appearance than NYA):"
"COMPQ is still below blue resistance:"
"Bulls, of course, are clamoring for "their" count, so here's the most palatable "bull" count I can currently find:"
"In conclusion, the strength of the bounce has given many bears pause (paws?) and I'd be lying if I didn't say it has at least made me wonder. This type of rally strength can sometimes indicate a meaningful bottom. For the moment, though, there's nothing in the charts to invalidate any of the bear options, so I'm continuing to lean that direction for now. Trade safe."
market is going to new highs
this is what the charts say
"I still remain of the opinion that this is the start of a Supercycle collapse, meaning that the worst is yet to come." Long dissertation today
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Way back in March of 2022, I wrote a bit more about the Supercycle collapse (which I believed/believe had/has already begun) in order to help get people thinking about the types of things that could happen, and to hopefully inspire them to prepare:
Bigger picture, the bear case hasn't changed, though I have included some ballpark numbers on the chart below. The question I always ask myself in parallel with such numbers is, "What would have to happen to take SPX to [for example] 2200? What is going on in the world as the market falls?" Because we have to remember, especially when dealing with Supercycles, that these things do not occur in a vacuum. If the market crashes, there are things going on outside the market that will be "causing" the crash.
And when it comes to Supercycles, those events can be truly dramatic, as I've often discussed in the forum. During a Supercycle crash, the door is open to events such as major natural disasters ("big one" earthquakes, Cascasdia Subduction Zone tsunamis, etc.), world wars (or even something at a smaller scale but still massively devastating, such as a "backpack nuke" brought up through our less-than-secure borders and detonated downtown in a major US city), comet impacts -- things of that nature. Things that we tend to blindly assume can't happen in modern times, but most assuredly still do. Those types of events can, and usually do, run in close proximity to Supercycle crashes.
Anyway, I don't mean to sound melodramatic, but when we start asking ourselves the question ("What could be happening in the world to cause the market to react so negatively?"), we probably won't like the possible answers. As I've always said: Charts lead the news.
Outside of that brief mention of "world wars" above, I don't think I've written about war much on the blog, but on the forums, I've discussed many times that wars are to be expected during Supercycle collapses. Implicit in the idea of a Supercycle collapse is a shakeup of the world power dynamic -- especially when the collapse is occurring in the global superpower (the United States). As America continues to weaken financially, economically, militarily, and morally, the Pax Americana naturally comes under fire as other powers look to capitalize on our weakness.
I have repeatedly warned that Supercycles take years, sometimes even decades, to unfold completely and that this bear market would not be like the other bear markets of living memory. It's now been almost two years since the all-time high in SPX, and there's still a lot more to come, in my view.
During the first week of January (2023), I published the following thoughts:
I still remain of the opinion that this is the start of a Supercycle collapse, meaning that the worst is yet to come. Despite how some investors are undoubtedly feeling, in my view, things haven't even begun to get "bad" yet. We're still in the stage where bears are having fun (!). We'll know we're getting closer to the bottom when even bears are hoping and praying for good news and rallies, because everything will be teetering on the brink of complete destruction -- and not even bears want to see that. I likewise remain of the opinion that the current collapse is not solely a financial event.
We are more able to see the seeds starting to sprout a bit now, but we are still nowhere near the point where "everything [is] teetering on the brink of destruction." We can speculate on what that might look like, but just remember that nothing is off the table for us during a Supercycle collapse. Things that would have seemed impossible a few short years ago, such as a nuclear conflict, are no longer impossible.
Supercycle declines are not just financial, they are cultural, and they are geopolitical.
To avoid negative consequences, we have to tread far more carefully than our leaders are currently doing -- but then, if they weren't arrogant and complacent, we might not have entered this Supercycle in the first place. So, Catch 22. Worth remembering that Rome grew so arrogant and complacent that its leaders refused to believe barbarians were capable of conquering them even after entire cities had fallen. If our leaders were in touch with the times, they'd have a far more protectionist attitude about our finances and resources, instead of borrowing as if interest rates were still zero and lunging about clumsily as if the world was still stable and as if we were still in a position to do anything about the growing instability.
Things have changed, but our leaders' attitudes have not.
Anyway, my point is not to be fatalistic, but simply to remind everyone that we're still in the early stages and things can get a lot worse than they currently are, so it's not a bad idea to prepare. Don't be among the complacent. Because we're nowhere near the bottom yet, in my opinion. Whatever it is that you think can't happen, won't happen, would never happen here -- it absolutely can. Plan as if it might. Worst case (or best case?), you're overprepared and everything ends up fine. No real harm done."
Let's move on to the charts.
NYA:
COMPQ:
"And what currently appears to be the "most bullish" option for SPX (4 can run even higher than shown):"
"Of course, there are other options for the shape of blue 4 above, including the option to end immediately. There are, of course, larger, intermediate bull options, but as promised, I'm not giving much airtime to them until the market gives better reason to. Trade safe."
Weekly Stock Market Commentary 10/6/2023
By Lawrence G. McMillan
"Stocks continue to fall, as the downtrend that began at the end of July persists (red lines on the chart in Figure 1). New relative lows were made again this week, so the pattern of lower highs and lower lows is evident. That defines a downtrend, and it also warrants holding a "core" bearish position.
Overhead, there is resistance in the 4330 to 4400 area. There is support at 4200, since it was previously a resistance area -- blue horizontal line in Figure 1. The 200-day Moving Average of $SPX, which is still rising, is also in the 4200 area. That may be enough to initially provide a launch point for an oversold rally, but it seems to me that this market will be making lower lows into a later date in October, at least.
Equity-only put-call ratios continue to race higher and that keeps them on sell signals. They will remain that way until they roll over and begin to trend lower. Other put-call ratios are moving to extreme oversold states as well.
Market breadth has mostly been poor, and both breadth oscillators remain on sell signals, mired in oversold territory. It is going to take at least a couple (maybe three) days of positive breadth in order to generate buy signals from these oscillators.
Meanwhile, the volatility complex -- which has been our most bullish indicator for nearly a year now -- has begun to waffle as well. $VIX is in "spiking" mode, and as long as that is the case, the market can decline (even sharply, perhaps). Eventually, though, $VIX will generate a new "spike peak" buy signal.
Just a mention of seasonality: October has seen some severe stock markets declines, during which oversold conditions are exacerbated. Eventually, though, October has earned the nickname "bear killer" because those oversold conditions get so extreme that a meaningful market bottom often forms in October. That might just be the case again this year. Meanwhile, we are maintaining a "core" bearish position because of the downtrend on the $SPX chart which is the dominant technical feature at this time.'
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/SPX.JPG?v=1696877285536
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21.JPG?v=1696877285537
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21_W.JPG?v=1696877285537
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/VIX.JPG?v=1696877285537
RRG Shows Explosion In Growth Stocks Is Taunting The Fed
OCTOBER 08, 2023 AT 10:26 AM
Tom Bowley
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
http://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2023/10/rrg-shows-explosion-in-growth-672.html
"One thing I repeatedly talk about is ignoring the talking heads and following the charts. If I had to provide a chart as the "poster child" for this, I might start with the following RRG chart:"
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/10/08/cd1345ca-f08f-4a92-ba12-843ec1de3c33.jpg
"We're downtrending, right? We're heading back to the 2022 low and maybe further, right? Inflation remains a problem, right? The 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) is nearly 5%, right? Earnings will slow, right? Here comes a recession, right? And the government is inevitably gonna shut down, right? Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah....
I see it and hear it everywhere I go. And you know how I respond? By tuning it all O-U-T. I let the charts do the talking and the RRG chart above is screaming at us. RRG provides us an excellent source to see what's happening "beneath the surface". I deliberately put 12-day "tails" on RRG, because it's been 12 days since Fed Chief Powell was yapping about "higher rates for longer". You know what, Wall Street doesn't care - at least not with their money! I don't know what is being said on CNBC, because I won't watch it. But look at the rotation on the RRG chart. The growth indices at the large cap, mid cap, and small cap levels are ALL moving in bullish fashion. The value indices are doing the opposite.
Want to see a SharpChart that illustrates the same point in a little different format?"
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/10/08/b95f384f-2e71-4bee-9180-6ed25c3850f9.jpg
"Could this rotation to aggressive growth stocks be any clearer? Over the past two weeks, what have you heard on CNBC? (Asking for a friend). After Wall Street filled their coffers with growth stocks the past two weeks, while selling us garbage on CNBC and elsewhere, the stock market explodes on Friday - and after a HOT jobs report. Do you honestly believe CNBC is reporting the NEWS? Because, to me, this MASSIVE rotation to growth the past two weeks should be the top story. It sickens me.
Listen, nothing guarantees us which way the stock market is heading. Absolutely nothing. I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong plenty of times in the future. But being right 100% of the time isn't my goal. My goal is to effectively manage risk. Sorry, but I'm not buying the gloom and doom when I see the above RRG chart and SharpChart.
Folks, I'm a former practicing CPA and I was involved in valuations. Stock valuations drop FASTER on growth stocks when interest rates are truly expected to move higher. If everything else is equal, rising rates cause the value of future earnings to drop. Period. And growth stocks are valued primarily based on their growth prospects. So explain to me how the Fed's talking about "higher rates for longer" should lead to a massive rally in growth stocks since the moment the Fed announcement was made.
I now do a very detailed Weekly Market Report for our members. If you want quality research and education to help you better manage your own investments, I encourage you to try our service at EarningsBeats.com. We have a 30-day FREE trial and I'll help guide you through the next month. In this week's Weekly Market Report, I'll be providing two charts that are absolute bear market KILLERS. Check out our service for 30 days and then be the judge of the incredible value we provide. Not ready for the paid service? Then CLICK HERE and enter your name and email address to become a FREE subscriber to our 3x per week EB Digest newsletter."
Happy trading!
Tom
Yields Soar on Strong Jobs Report
OCTOBER 06, 2023 AT 10:23 AM
Tom Bowley
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
http://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2023/10/yields-soar-on-strong-jobs-rep-202.html
"From a bullish perspective, I was hoping to see the "goldilocks" jobs report, one which still showed job growth, but came in below consensus estimates. The thought there is that the Fed would see that its rate-hiking campaign was working and the economy was slowing. Instead, we saw a much-larger-than-expected jobs number, 336,000 vs. 160,000. Immediately, futures fell from positive to negative, and we'll likely be experiencing price action today that tests, if not pierces, recent price lows across our major indices.
But were there any silver linings? Well, actually yes. The obvious is that our economy remains resilient, keeping alive the possibility of a soft landing. A big decrease in jobs and a negative number might have altered that potential outcome. Second, the unemployment rate was expected to drop from 3.8% to 3.7%, but instead remained at 3.8%. Also, average hourly earnings, which is watched by the Fed for further pressure from wage inflation, remained unchanged from the prior month at +0.2%, lower than the +0.3% rise that was forecast.
So while the headline jobs number may have spooked bond investors initially, it'll be interesting to see the reaction as the rest of the day unfolds and, of course, next week. The September PPI and CPI will be released next Wednesday and Thursday, October 11th and 12th, respectively.
The monthly core CPI is what we should watch most closely and here's a chart that shows the direction it's been heading:"
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/10/06/39d85b0c-0998-4387-b85a-bd4f90098f9a.jpg
"Remember, not too long ago, Fed Chief Powell said that the Fed wanted to see a consistent move lower towards its 2% target. Are you reading the above chart differently than me? Not only have we seen the annual core rate of inflation fall from 6.7% to 4.4% in one year, but we've also seen the monthly change fall all the way back into its 21st century "normal" range. I can't help but believe that if next week's September Core CPI reading comes in at or below 0.4%, we'll see the start of a Q4 stock market rally, if it hasn't already begun by then."
On Monday, in our FREE EB Digest newsletter, I'll be highlighting a chart that says inflation is NOT a problem, despite what the Fed might suggest. If you'd like to see this chart and you're not already an EB Digest free subscriber, simply CLICK HERE to enter your name and email address. There's no credit card required and you may unsubscribe at any time.
Happy trading!
Tom
"..........no real change to anything. We do remain in "potential 3rd wave" territory, so stay alert, as third waves are often crash waves."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Let's start with oil, since I've received several requests from oil bulls to, quote: "REMOVE THAT STUPID B LABEL ALREADY!!" Back in March, I drew this oil chart and placed the red "b?" where it is:"
"Then, over the subsequent half a year, oil rallied all the way up to that label, hit the bottom of the "b," then reversed hard. Oil bulls are now blaming me for this reversal, since (according to them) it's obvious on the chart that my "b?" label is simply blocking oil's advance:"
"So, I'd like oil bulls to please understand that, while it may seem like it's my fault for placing that b-label where I did, that's just where it looked like oil wanted to go, and where I thought it would be forced to decide what it wanted to do next. Labels aren't physical things that can reverse rallies, they're just ideas in my head. So, I'm just the messenger, really. Please stop sending me messages now.
Next up is NYA, which has so far failed to recover the black channel and is thus still hanging around in dangerous waters:"
"COMPQ is now below all its near-term support levels:"
"No change to SPX so far:"
"In conclusion, no real change to anything. We do remain in "potential 3rd wave" territory, so stay alert, as third waves are often crash waves. Trade safe."
Donald Trump called his former chief of staff John Kelly a “lowlife with a very small brain and a very big mouth” after the former marine general confirmed reports about the ex-president’s derogatory attitude to members of the US armed forces.
That makes around ONE HUNDRED the number of LOYALISTS that decided not to take it up the ass. In every instance they tell YOU the moronic voter just how disgusting the man is. And your response? VOTE HIM IN!
So anyone discussing the stock market has as much chance of getting it right as those that support trump. if you still don't know what i mean I will make it simple for ya. DO THE OPPOSITE of your own advice any you will do just fine.
I called this insanity 7 years ago and all only saw a raving lunatic with no ability to land on planet earth. many still feel that way but they themselves are floating on cloud 9.
Almost Anyone Can Become the House Speaker, Except Donald Trump
House GOP rules prohibit a speaker who’s indicted for a felony Such a minor clause that can easily be overlooked.
And yet there is easily 48% of people investing and blogging on this very site who support the DON. They can't understand why TRUMP shouldn't be allowed to run let alone think it remotely possible he spend the rest of his days behind bars.
This is YOUR pick for investment advice? The other insane choice for investment advice is from those that simply saw a 100 year Pandemic as nothing more than noise. Yet like your choice for TRUMP you keep following losers, people with no ability to process simple common sense acts.
So if i wanted to follow advise my first 2 questions would be 1 - Do you support trump. 2 - what was your track record during the Pandemic.
So anyone in their right mind, a rare breed indeed, would conclude that a person supporting Trump has as much chance of being right as his investment picks.
in other words anyone with such lack of moral ethical or common sense in regard to trump surely can't see straight on ANYTHING! Invest in that persons analysis? Crazy!
And then there is this.............
John Kelly, the longest-serving White House chief of staff for Donald Trump, offered his harshest criticism yet of the former president in an exclusive statement to CNN.
Kelly set the record straight with on-the-record confirmation of a number of damning stories about statements Trump made behind closed doors attacking US service members and veterans, listing a number of objectionable comments Kelly witnessed Trump make firsthand.
“What can I add that has not already been said?” Kelly said, when asked if he wanted to weigh in on his former boss in light of recent comments made by other former Trump officials. “A person that thinks those who defend their country in uniform, or are shot down or seriously wounded in combat, or spend years being tortured as POWs are all ‘suckers’ because ‘there is nothing in it for them.’ A person that did not want to be seen in the presence of military amputees because ‘it doesn’t look good for me.’ A person who demonstrated open contempt for a Gold Star family – for all Gold Star families – on TV during the 2016 campaign, and rants that our most precious heroes who gave their lives in America’s defense are ‘losers’ and wouldn’t visit their graves in France.
“A person who is not truthful regarding his position on the protection of unborn life, on women, on minorities, on evangelical Christians, on Jews, on working men and women,” Kelly continued. “A person that has no idea what America stands for and has no idea what America is all about. A person who cavalierly suggests that a selfless warrior who has served his country for 40 years in peacetime and war should lose his life for treason – in expectation that someone will take action. A person who admires autocrats and murderous dictators. A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law.
“There is nothing more that can be said,” Kelly concluded. “God help us.”
3260-3300 SPX is still the next Big Target
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"America is getting progressively dumber at an alarming rate. This is happening both literally..."
"And anecdotally. Both of these next two items are screenshots from the U.S. Treasury official website. Item one:"
"Since we need to borrow almost a trillion dollars this quarter (I believe it's over a trillion if you count SOMA), you might think that would prompt some soul searching as to whether continuing to increase taxpayer debt is sustainable in a "not low" interest rate environment (we're not even in a "high" interest rate environment, unless one's baseline is the last 15 years). But you'd be wrong. Instead, we're going to waste even more precious resources and money we don't have producing detailed reports about issues that we have zero control over (aka: "the weather"):"
"These are only three examples of the types of news items you and I see every single day that cannot help but cause us to question what the hell this country is doing. It's as if there's a massive tsunami headed straight for us but, instead of making any effort to prepare or even acknowledge its existence, we're busy arguing about whether Coke is better than Pepsi. And we're getting REALLY HEATED about that argument, as if that's something that matters more than, say, the fact that we're going to be crushed by interest payments on the debt, or the fact that banks are holding tons of questionable assets, or the fact that our actions on the world stage are uniting our worst enemies in common cause against us, at the exact same time that we're weakening ourselves both financially and militarily (some of our munitions stockpiles will take more than a decade to replenish -- and that was as of January), and the fact that historians may well look back on this time in history as "the Start of World War III."
Along with a million other serious and, more importantly, real issues that we're completely ignoring.
Something to think about as they test the emergency cell phone alert system later today. (Meanwhile, Russia ran nationwide drills for nuclear war yesterday. I'm sure the timing of both of these things is purely coincidental. Don't give it another thought.)
Anyway, NYA captured its target from two months ago:"
"And SPX is tracking this "roadmap" chart well so far:"
"Other than mentioning the target captures (targets often act as support/resistance, so this could lead to a near-term bounce), there's no change from recent updates. Trade safe."
As Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., has been booted from his post as House speaker after a motion to vacate brought forth by hardliner Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Calif., an unlikely nominee has been suggested as next speaker: former President Donald Trump.
Texas Rep. Troy Nehls said in a statement Tuesday afternoon his first order of business when the House reconvenes "will be to nominate Donald J. Trump for Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives."
"President Trump, the greatest President of my lifetime, has a proven record of putting America First and will make the House great again," he said.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Market: end of week should finish the drop IMO. BTW Glen sees a huge upside over next year and a half. All I know is the Yields are already above crash warnings leaning into red zone for an explosion. the dollar the same. Fed Funds needs to hit SIX. The economic data is pretty consistent with a consumer shrugging off inflation and JOBS seem to be accelerating back UP. UP UP and AWAY! JOLTS was a down right SHOCKER!
But hey, all systems are extremely biased simply because they use the long term model and that model for 40 years is always UP and never down for long. So once you start a platform with such extreme assumptions we can easily excuse a Pandemic, Inflation, Fed Funds, the dollar, DEBT. That's how we have crashes. Do you actually think all these models saw a danger dead ahead? in fact the exact opposite. they NOW view any weakness as a BUY BUY BUY!
In other words, while it is possible under specific conditions to rally hard for another 18 months the more likely version is a monumental one sided bet gone wrong. the new Paradigm was coined by economists right before the great depression. How is it possible they didn't see the next disaster in front of them. How can TRUMP still hold half the nation in his grips? In both instance i am talking to either non-conformists or converts. 48% will be there FOREVER! It might hit 52% but never ever drop more than 2 percentages below 48 regardless of future events. You see in life we look for ways to support our bias and find it with concrete analysis filtering out that which doesn't fit.
Biden is so so so much worse than Trump. Why else would the house GOP endorse trump so strongly. if 48% of Americans believe strongly in TRUMP perhaps because of his track record wouldn't it stand to reason that same number are devil worshipers? It can be considered a religion. Evangelical worshipping with the devil. Must be a splintered group like Protestant and Episcopalian.
A day after my tirade on Trump and his disgusting behavior we get this headline today.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/john-kelly-confirms-trump-privately-disparaged-us-service-members-vete-rcna118543
John Kelly trumps long time friend and Chief of Staff is recounting the loser and sucker remarks towards the armed forces. So not only is the man a cheat, corrupt to the core willing to sell state secrets for a profit and not only leader of a riot to overthrow his own government he spits on those that protect him and our country.
ANY QUESTIONS??????????
JOLTS report was a big jolt. Shook up the market badly. Inflation implications.
TRUMP VOTERS never hear see read or watch the man in his full splendor. They PRETEND it didn't happen by erasing it. They only want the part of him that promises WHITE MEN will dominate again. Christian of course. They forgive him all horror's as long as he delivers. Evangelic leaders praised the man that held the bible upside down as if it was on fire against a backdrop of tear gassing the PEACEFUL CROWD in order for him to perform his campaign optics.
he mocks the military soldier as SUCKERS! he mocked McCain a real man that served with distinction and was held as a POW and tortured for years even when allowed to end his captivity early but without the rest of the men in captivity. TRUMP was so envious he actually stated He Deserved To be In Prison for getting himself caught. WTF? I am living in a nightmare that gest worse and worse.
I have HUNDREDS of horror stories about this P.O.SHIT. But like HITLER no one gave a shit about his treatment of JEWS as long as THEY themselves profited.
That's 48% of this population. The excuses that TRUMP SUPORTERS come up with is amazing. Biden corrupt, too old. Trump however seems not to have ANY BAD ATTRIBUTES??????????
I will continue to EXPOSE the hypocrisy. Can you imagine someone running against Hitler with all the known exposed horrors he committed and then say but his opponent is weak, corrupt, too old. I mean lame isn't the proper word. how about EVIL as Hitler himself. YOU THE TRUMP VOTER ARE EVIL, pretending you don't quite understand what he actually did. Come on now! if you read any of MY POSTS that no longer is the case. Surprise surprise!
I can pull such despicable sub-human deeds made by TRUMP almost on a daily basis. And the pace will increase as he loses all of NY for his financial schemes. Yet i have to actually try to persuade morons that can't read or comprehend? I suggest you pretend it was your sibling, mother, father that got bludgeoned with a hammer by a lunatic and have the President of USA make a joke about it. YOU the VOTER must be laughing now. Have You No Decency?
EXPAIN AWAY THIS BEHAVIOR. *** STILL WAITING ON THE HORRORS OF BIDEN against so many evil acts by TRUMP! I will list my facts against yours. pathetic.
Trump's Appalling Paul Pelosi Dig Gets Laughs From California GOP Crowd
“We’ll stand up to crazy Nancy Pelosi, who ruined San Francisco,” Trump said to the crowd. “How’s her husband doing, by the way, anybody know?”
“She’s against building a wall at our border, even though she has a wall around her house — which obviously didn’t do a very good job,” he added, seemingly mocking the Democratic congresswoman.
Trump at the time called the incident a “terrible thing.” A week after the incident, the former president’s son Donald Trump Jr. posted memes advocating to ban hammers — the weapon used in the attack.
AND THE CROWD LAUGHED
The former president baselessly called California’s election “rigged” and said he wants to liberate the state from “communist rule,” later saying organized retail thefts in the state could be addressed by shooting looters as they leave stores.
Trump, referring to his recent indictments, mocked President Joe Biden, saying, “Let’s indict the mother******,” suggesting the president uses indictments as a means of destroying the credibility of those he doesn’t like or those polling higher than him, even though his federal charges were brought by an independent prosecutor.
The man truly does represent the best of republicans. he is the man that captures the heart of evangelic voters. A vicious attack on Pelosi husband was mocked because?
Pussy Magnet - you bet! Covid disaster, you bet! Loves Putin and demands we stop funding Ukraine, you bet! Made side deals with China and Saudis for PERSONAL GAINS! You bet! has more lawyers under indictment and losing their license to practice than all presidents, VP's, congressman combined in the history of our nation starting from Washington on. You bet! Hates the military and calls those that serve SUCKERS! you bet. A thousand rioters and TRUMP promises to free all of them because sedition and treason is just a made up concept. You bet! A war hero tortured for years refusing to get out early from prison till his colleges did McCain ridiculed by the draft dodger. You bet!
Dated but relevant list of TRUMPS greatest accomplishments.
https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-reports/president-trumps-staggering-record-of-uncharged-crimes/#table
Or perhaps this one: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/trump-indictment-unsealed/674353/
Useless to talk to Big Foot believers. 2 impeachments political. 4 indictments political. 2 rape cases settled in civil court political. Every accuser, every judge every prosecutor corrupt. His own lawyers are testifying to condemn his outrageous behavior because they themselves are lying pieces of shit. Every single day the corruption mounts and his legal peril and jail time builds. WHY? because he faked a scheme to tell everyone the election was rigged and as the head of the most powerful nation in the world with access to aa 15 agencies which handles fraud found the answer was "THE MOST SECURE ELECTION IN HISTORY". Spoken by his own department head that then got FIRED for saying it. Not a single shred of evidence, where all REPUBLICAN judges laughed him out of court. He predicted this fraud even before the election and his buddy was caught on audio stating his plan was to complain about fraud and if he losses us that to STAY IN POWER!
So who is the fool here. One guess and it isn't everyone else but... Yup you got it. So just don't ever look up Trumps atrocities because you will be foaming at the mouth. Don't ever watch the January 6th incident replayed because it isn't a flattering portrait of a treasonous A'hole.
LETS END THIS STUPIDITY! Give me exact FACTS or even assumptions on what BIDEN did to what HITLER did. That's YOUR comparison. Too DEFLECT? Kind of hard when every single day TRUMP is in one or more court houses calling everyone corrupt but himself. BIDEN compared to Trump is like Mother Teresa compared to Attila the Hun.
In fact lets make it real easy. List Biden's atrocities and i will make it so easy to expose the pure hate and bigotry simply because there is NOTHING THERE! And "I" can prove it! While a simpleton with 5th grade logic and education cn understand the mountain of corrupt evil deeds this sub-human has done.
BRING IT ON! Instead i still get ONE LINERS deflecting. DEFLECT! I stated this 6 years ago and STILL I get the same idiotic one liner response.. You see HITLER wasn't as bad as STALIN! That's YOUR ARGUMENT and in this case calling Biden anything but a normal decent human being in the same breath as this monster is an INSULT!
BTW where is TRUMP TODAY! foaming at the mouth telling idiots like you the world is corrupt and he is the only godlike man.
How did the PANDEMIC pan out for ya? Got the right call? Wait for it...... You see sometimes the most easy simple solution is the one that you stared thru. Refused to see it. here is how i can prove my point. Did YOU ever explain away the Pandemic mistake? An easy call. you know a 100 year destruction coming to our soils. Or defending a man that can't be defended? Pick your poison.
YOU ARE VOTING FOR TRUMP and I have to explain why that isn't a good idea? DUH......
The only argument I have is how could he do as bad or worse than Biden. Talk about morons..Who do you think voted for Biden?
RCKS, Thanks for the chart and info.My one big guru still looking at 4200....
"............the pattern still suggests that the current bounce is most likely a fourth wave, to be followed (after it completes) by a fifth wave below last week's low. If anything changes there, we'll discuss that as appropriate."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Last update opined that the "most likely" scenario was for the current bounce to be a fourth wave, and nothing has happened to alter that so far. Worth mentioning that NYA back-tested its noted broken trend line and was rejected. Another test of the zone near that line is not required, but would be perfectly normal:"
"Next, SPX didn't quite reach the green line -- but again, another go at it, if it happens, shouldn't surprise anyone:"
"Very long-term, SPX is now below its key blue line:"
"Finally, I was looking through last year's chart book, and I just had to share this, because it's weird. First, remember back on May 3, 2022, when I published this chart? (I actually drew the chart in April 2022, but didn't publish immediately.)"
"So here's what's weird... this is the chart as it looks in my old chartbook now:"
"Anyway, (3)/C's timing seems a bit aggressive to me from where I sit now, but sometimes these charts almost draw themselves and can end up being smarter than me, if that makes any sense. So we'll see how that goes. But, however (3)/C goes, the timing of (2)/B (timing is not something I put any conscious thought into) seemed just a bit unreasonable to me.
Oh, almost forgot, gold has opened an option worth being aware of:"
"In conclusion, presently, the pattern still suggests that the current bounce is most likely a fourth wave, to be followed (after it completes) by a fifth wave below last week's low. If anything changes there, we'll discuss that as appropriate. Trade safe."
".....bulls do have some options here, but for now, the "most common" situation would be for the current bounce in SPX and NYA to be a fourth wave."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"As another one bites the dust, I was finally forced to move away from the 80s-music-themed titles. Let's go right to the charts, starting with NYA:"
"SPX captured and exceeded Target 1 from Sept. 8:"
"Bigger picture, SPX is bouncing off the red trend line:"
"There is resistance several places overhead, with 4350ish as a standout:"
"And last but not least, TLT has finally confirmed my wave count from 2022:"
"In conclusion, bulls do have some options here, but for now, the "most common" situation would be for the current bounce in SPX and NYA to be a fourth wave. If things get squirrely, we'll take a closer look at the bull options. Trade safe."
".....the most likely resolution for these patterns is ultimately lower."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Not a whole lot to add to the past few updates, but a couple charts are worth looking at anyway, starting with NYA, which suggests new lows are still lurking out there, one way or another:"
"SPX is in a similar position:"
In conclusion, the most likely resolution for these patterns is ultimately lower. Which really isn't adding anything to the past few updates, but the charts "show the math," so to speak. Be aware that this is potentially dangerous territory for bulls, as unless they can reclaim some key zones, an acceleration of the decline in the fairly near future is very possible. Trade safe.
DERANGED, FASCIST, abortion flip-flop, general deserves the death sentence. I can see why on a daily basis this becomes normal and appreciated by the TRUMP CULT. You see the world is a delusion. the MATRIX has us believe everything around us is real but in truth only TRUMP is real. How the court managed to convince 12 jurors 2 different times to declare defamation against trump for denying RAPING a woman is beyond me. How you morons that support this lunatic reminds me of the 12 year reign by HITLER.
BTW I dare you to actually look up two simple words in your favorite search engine. Trump News. Get back to me when you want to challenge the world is a mirage and trump the only thing that is real. Seeing him, hearing him, also requires you to believe they too have been altered. Spooky.
I Say We're Setting Up For A Major Bottom
SEPTEMBER 24, 2023 AT 10:43 AM
Tom Bowley
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
http://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2023/09/i-say-were-setting-up-for-a-ma-496.html
"It's almost impossible to call market tops and market bottoms using basic technical analysis tools like price and volume. Don't get me wrong, that combination is my favorite during trend-following periods. But trying to spot bearish reversals is difficult when price action keeps riding higher and higher. The same is true in trying to spot bullish reversals when prices keep moving lower and lower. Maybe that seems unconventional to hard-core technicians, but I believe it's the reality. Too many folks say "when this line crosses that line, then this will happen". To me, that's following technical analysis and wearing blinders. Just my two cents.
I use technical price action to confirm what other signals are suggesting. We get plenty of signals on a regular basis - some short-term in nature, others long-term - if we're only willing to listen. While I've been bullish since June 2022, I do recognize short-term warning signals that tell us that risks of remaining long have increased substantially. In mid-July, I turned very cautious short-term and discussed those signals in a "Your Daily 5" episode that aired on July 19th. Let me pull up an S&P 500 chart, so you can see where U.S. equities stood when I fired this warning shot:"
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/24/992c9119-7e85-41ed-b212-fec23ca030f2.jpg
"There were several reasons for the stock market bulls to hit quicksand. Tesla (TSLA), a Wall Street darling and a favorite stock of mine, suggested a possible 20% drop. That call aired the day of TSLA's top and TSLA fell closer to 30% in less than one month. These signals work and help us to manage risk! As I always say, they do NOT guarantee future price action, but they make us aware of increasing risk and that's how you invest more successfully. Since that July top, I've encouraged our EB members to tread very cautiously, whatever that means to each individual member. To some, it's being in cash. To others, it might simply mean to avoid leverage on the long side. But this cautious period is coming to an end."
If you want to see what was discussed on July 19th and why I felt the stock market was in short-term trouble, check out the Your Daily 5 recording on YouTube!
I absolutely LOVE when my signals take the opposite view of the masses. And now that everyone believes we're resuming the prior bear market, my signals are saying HOGWASH. Could we continue to proceed lower? Sure. There are never any guarantees with the stock market. But I see signs that suggest shorting is a VERY HIGH RISK strategy, with those risks growing every day. I'm discussing one major reason why in our FREE EB Digest newsletter that will be published early Monday morning, before the stock market opens. If you're not already an EB Digest subscriber, it's 100% free with no credit card required. Simply CLICK HERE and enter your name and email address. I'll discuss Reason #1 to turn bullish tomorrow morning. And I'll also focus on other reasons to be thinking bullish thoughts when I publish the EB Digest on Wednesday and Friday. Don't wait until it's too late. Check them out NOW!
Happy trading!
Tom
"...Several market are still sitting at or near theoretical support zones -- if bulls can't manage any kind of reactionary bounce, then that tells us something about the strength (or lack thereof) of the market."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
Those of you with internet access may have noticed that today's title continues the long-running tradition (two days) of referencing classic 80s songs. Not sure if I'll try this again on Wednesday, but I Just Can't Get Enough, so I will be Right Here Waiting to see If This Is It or not.
No change from last update, but I did want to bring forward the NYA chart, which I haven't updated in a while, because it's right at rising support. If bulls can't manage any kind of reactionary bounce, then a sustained breakdown here quite likely takes NYA down toward blue 3/C:"
SPX is unchanged:
"Hanging out just below green, and no change:"
"No change to the targets:"
"COMPQ still flirting with next support:"
"In conclusion, no real change to anything. Several market are still sitting at or near theoretical support zones -- if bulls can't manage any kind of reactionary bounce, then that tells us something about the strength (or lack thereof) of the market. Trade safe."
I think it's quite obvious that Trump is under major attack from the world, flesh, devil and the left. They're doing everything in their power to keep him down and from being the next president because they're afraid, scared and insecure of themselves even. It's easy to see as an outsider in the middle ground. Satan always attacks us the most before the blessing.
Here is the real next danger, as real as a known Pandemics path of death. Trump leads by a whopping 10 points! But stick your head in the sand and concentrate on making money in the market. We have less than two year before all is revealed to even the most die hard cult follower. him and his converts have already succeeded in destroying this world in a cataclysmic fashion. Think I exaggerate again? Don't ya know i have been right for a very long time. NO? Think about connecting two dots. One, trump will lead a completed revolution to dictatorial rule as his converts in the Senate, House, and State legislature have already started the process. Don't believe me? just use a search engine and key in Trump GOP influence and changes. Trump and the state legislatures. Funny part of this exercise is that news articles from 2020 had hope he was defeated and after they spell a defeated attitude for our democracy. me i knew the end was here in 2016. I saw the future and it was bleak. Do you know what it is like to watch a time lapsed version of our destruction? I know what all are thinking. I need to take my meds. Funny part of all this is that YOU will need the meds when his reign is complete.
if i was you and had no ability to connect simple dots together i would also question my own sanity. I would at this stage however have a nagging reminder that my preposterous argument on our future has already come true. but alas, you will find ways to dismiss me as a nagging over exaggerating Casandra.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/24/washington-post-abc-poll-trump-10-points-over-biden
Market path: Full proof future. between NOW and the next election we will have a crash of momentous proportions. It will seal our fate forever. Trump will be declared KING! Bet the farm on 2 predictions. One we crash before the next election and two Trump will reign till he dies. Think this over the top? Well explain how his BIGGEST LEAD is on the backs of 2 rape charges convictions, 2 impeachments, 4 indictments, sedition, treason, extortion. Can anyone come close to being an anti-Christ with those credentials?
Extreme bias eventually comes true. been seeing gremlins for a long time now. You never accepted this massive run and was skeptical thru out. missed some great upside. but now that all things are aligning for a big drop you have anxiously declared victory. Not so fast. Like a pandemic we have an external event that is seen by all and most dismiss it as a short term problem. Shut down is inevitable and demanded by the MAGA GOP. It WILL be the deciding factor. The longer the more sever the next drop. This combined with a Fed Funds approaching but refusing to hit 6%, bond yields at crash levels and the dollar breaking out.
The best case scenario is a move higher next week to brace for the full wrath of Octobers shutdown. it will be long, break previous records and cause a stock market capitulation.
This has been anticipated and outcome also a favorite prediction. GOP has no control over the MAGA group and only a concerted detachment from them with the help of the Dems will we see a short shutdown. In other words unlikely.
Stock Market Commentary 09/22/23
By Lawrence G. McMillan
"Technically, $SPX is still within the 4330-4540 trading range, but it is now probing the low end of that range. Prices and internal indicators were deteriorating slowly until the FOMC meeting this week. After that, $SPX took a big drop on Thursday. The fact that the week after September expiration is a seasonally weak period for the market has added to the bearishness. There is now a gap on the $SPX chart, which would be filled on a rally towards 4400, so that represents a resistance area now. Even so, I am still of the opinion that $SPX needs to fall below 4330 or rise above 4540 in order for some sustained momentum to be seen.
Equity-only put-call ratios have toyed with buy signals over the past week. Both ratios moved lower for a few days, giving the appearance to the naked eye that buy signals were being generated (a local maximum on the chart would be a buy signal for the stock market in general). The computer analysis agreed that was the case for the standard ratio (Figure 2) but did not agree with regard to the weighted ratio (Figure 3). Now, with the market having taken a sharp hit on Thursday, both ratios jumped higher again and are on the verge of making a new relative high for this move that began in mid-August. If the ratios do make a new relative high, that will reaffirm the sell signals. In any case, the weighted ratio has remained on a sell signal throughout this month, according to the computer analysis programs.
Market breadth has deteriorated badly. "Stocks only" breadth has been terrible since Labor Day (Sept 5th). NYSE breadth was better than "stocks only" breadth, but it was generally negative, too. Both breadth oscillators are on sell signals, and they are now both in oversold territory. It is going to take several days of positive breadth in order for the "stocks only" breadth oscillator to generate a buy signal. Remember: "Oversold does not mean buy."
Even $VIX may finally be waking up from its persistent slumber. $VIX jumped higher on Thursday and is now in "spiking" mode. The stock market can fall sharply while $VIX is in that mode, but eventually a new "spike peak" buy signal will be generated.
One further observation on the $VIX chart in Figure 4: $VIX has probed down to 13 several times (including about a week ago), but has not been able to fall farther. That represents a level at which "big money" (buyers of $SPX puts) is willing to buy protection. Whether they are correct in needing that protection or not remains to be seen, although it was welcome this week.
In summary, we are not carrying a "core" position as long as $SPX is in the 4330-4540 trading range. But individual indicators have deteriorated as the market has moved lower, generating some sell signals. Oversold conditions may produce buy signals in the coming days, but until they are confirmed, the market is not a "buy" yet."
S&P 500 (SPX), CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21), and Weighted 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21 w) charts updated each Friday.
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/SPX.JPG?v=1695400193314
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21.JPG?v=1695400193314
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21_W.JPG?v=1695400193314
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/VIX.JPG?v=1695400193314
Thanks RCKS...How many times have we had that projection...Back below 2200. lows.JUst have to see I guess.
"I continue to suspect we're in the very early stages of a massive third wave decline, to break the 2022 lows and beyond."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Yesterday, SPX confirmed my prediction from September 6, which was that trade below 4460 implied a trip below 4335. But SPX has done more than that since last update. Let's start with the big picture and work backwards, to understand why my lean from August 18 is seeming even more reasonable now:"
"Note the presumed levels on the "roadmap" sketch above and compare with the red 3 target below -- red 3 should take us perilously close to overlap of the key levels above. That will probably trigger a bounce, which would be red 4 and we'll have to hold our breath there because there will be three waves down (which could always be a corrective ABC) and no overlap yet. Then, if all that is in the correct ballpark, red 5 will take us down to new lows (below red 3, anyway) and finally overlap the key levels."
"Bears finally broke the green trend line, but of course, have yet to hold that against whipsaws, so I don't want to imply that we should be complacent here, as the "complex intermezzo correction" is still on the table (if seemingly less likely):"
"Finally, COMPQ broke red and blue support, but closed the session right at its next support zone, so a bounce isn't unreasonable here, and bears do need to claim that (which I suspect they will) to add confidence:"
"In conclusion, SPX this month has captured two upside targets and two downside targets. The next targets are listed, while bulls' main hope for the foreseeable future seems to be, at best, for a complex correction. And while my lean on August 18 went against the grain at the time, it may not seem so outlandish now, and I continue to suspect we're in the very early stages of a massive third wave decline, to break the 2022 lows and beyond. Trade safe."
"I want to lean toward the bear options, because the world is going to hell in a handbasket and we all know it, but the deck chairs on the Titanic can always be rearranged before it sinks."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Yesterday, SPX confirmed the rare WXY pattern. Experts warned that such patterns would become more common due to climate change, and this pattern JUST HAPPENED (it's clearly become common; aka: recency bias), thereby proving that:
Climate change is real and therefore every statement we make about it is also true.
Anything real is also automatically a "crisis" as long as we repeat the term "crisis" over and over while simultaneously silencing all contrary views.
You have too much freedom.
Actually, ALL Americans have too much freedom. We need to figure out a way to gain control over them since the democratic process is not to be trusted.
Maybe we can convince them to let us take away their cars?
And their stoves and heat.
And their food.
And drive their cost of living through the roof. By fiat if we can't sell them on it.
That would learn 'em.
Err... we mean, totalitarianism would be better for us.
Wait! We mean that stuff will help solve the "crisis" we just proved exists! Refer back to #1.
(The above rant, in part, illustrates how bad logic and propaganda work: Just because WXY was proven true, it does not automatically follow that every -- or any! -- statement we link to WXY is also true.)
SPX found support at the blue trend line:"
"COMPQ broke below red, but also held its blue trend line (so far):"
"Finally, we probably shouldn't entirely ignore the fact that there is a bull option here:"
"I want to lean toward the bear options, because the world is going to hell in a handbasket and we all know it, but the deck chairs on the Titanic can always be rearranged before it sinks. Trade safe."
"....so far, there's nothing that's happened to give bulls much hope, so while bears still have some work to do, they do still appear to have the edge at present."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Last update opined that SPX had formed a WXY complex corrective wave (a WXY is two 3-wave structures, such as two abcs, connected by another 3-wave structure called an X wave) -- personally, I hate WXYs, because the options for such a structure can be endless and thus "WXY" becomes a call that's dependent on your prior reads and bias -- but it appears that's exactly what it was."
"COMPQ is on the edge of a breakdown, so we'll see if bulls can muster any kind of bounce here or not:"
"In conclusion, so far, there's nothing that's happened to give bulls much hope, so while bears still have some work to do, they do still appear to have the edge at present. Trade safe."
Daily barrage of pure evil indeed! Every single day it becomes so depressing to see a bullet train accelerating ever faster and all the spectators marvel at its accomplishments till it derails.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/09/16/us/ken-paxton-impeachment-texas?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20230916&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=cta®i_id=69491354&segment_id=144957&user_id=a4ca8feb8680b5194b7da63cf5583f97
The daily barrage of pure EVIL comes to us with the free press that is as maligned and dismissed as a Pandemic of massive harm comes to our shores.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/16/donald-trump-putin-praise-nbc-interview
maybe trump should ask Putin if he wants to be his running mate if he losses his dictatorial control. Every single day it is pounded in my brain just how corrupt and evil we as a nation have become. Germany had nothing on us. We started out the envy of the world where they were in the dung heap of despair. We only knew of free elections, freedom to spit on our flag, to bash our leaders. We have become so selfish and greedy that it because an entitlement. We have the luxury to place blame on those less fortunate and more willing to advance themselves out of second class citizenry. We prefer slavery as long as we are the slave owners.
To top it off we have the Judicial branch totally corrupted with absolute power to remain that way. Evil with unlimited power to spread more evil and no one and nothing can stop them. 14th Amendment? well that applies to TRUMP like no other. it will be laughed out of court.
Simple question. How many analysts, blogs, opinions called the initial announcement of a Pandemic the start of a nasty drop to come? the complete opposite happened. A vast majority saw this as a non-event, one the market can absorb. Funny after 5 long weeks of a known pandemic and known damage it would cause we preferred to stay optimistic and hope against hope. ONLY an actual death on our soil started the drop. think about this for a moment. We knew with certainty how bad it was, how it always spreads thru the globe. We even saw it spread to the Asian and EU continent. We saw the devastation on nations well before it hit our shores. hardly any person, article or analysts WARNED what was to come. It took massive amounts of money thrown out of helicopters to stop the bleeding and actually see a great opportunity to grab the low prices. BUT it ONLY happened after world government decided to go all in with massive debt and payouts and halt the medical communities complete failure to control the dead and dying.
The only thing this event proved is that we rely on governments to always bail us out and we ignore dangers till well after common sense tells you things are not healthy.
me, i would not be worried about global warming since that boat has sailed. The future is bleak and we are well past point of no return. Maybe in 2 decades we see a dramatic world cost of this folly but for now forgetaboutit! We have an immediate problem dead ahead. Dictatorial control of the world nations and most likely war on a scale unheard of. DEAD HEAT! This pandemic has come and has already done major damage but like the last pandemic we refuse to see the obvious. me, i don't need a mysterious sometime in the future bogeyman to worry about. We have already embraced pure evil because the devil promises to get rid of our own fears and prejudices. Trump lost 2 times on a defamation concerning his RAPE of a woman. FOX the Frankenstein that created Trump already lost defamation on lying about the election and has many more defamation suits they have to defend. 2 impeachments and live January 6th treason from trump as he REFUSED to get military help, demanded he lead the rioters to hang his VP, and demanded the metal detectors be taken down. He sat for 5 to 6 hours alone gleefully watching the riots. When he realized they would lose he reluctantly went on TV to tell them to go home. not before he thanked them and LOVED them all. I mean come on. The biggest danger to our survival is staring us in the face and you want to be concerned about what? Heck many of Trumps own Lawyers need lawyers to keep them out of jail and lose their license. INSNE! but like Hitler's 12 year reign we see what we want and praise his accomplishment.
Majority of JEWS refused to accept reality just like the majority of this voting nation. I can list facts and atrocities by trump and it rolls off the page. I can then ask if any person with that character, deeds can actually win an election and if i masked it as an anonymous made up man they would say that is a stupid question.
Unreal. Perhaps i am crazy, perhaps I see things in a distorted light but for god sakes someone, anyone counter my argument with FACTS! Instead all i hear is one liners. WAKE UP PEOPLE!
October starts the shutdown. WHY? because like FOX NEWS the GOP is connected at the hip with TRUMP. His survival is theirs. They need to destroy the economy BEFORE next election and this is the mechanism handed to them on a silver platter. I suspect like a pandemic we would not get too concerned till November comes and we have no resolution. Any droop in October will be small in comparison. The GOP will make sure this economy is BROKEN before next election where TRUMP will win. Spooky to even set up a scenario where HITLER lost the war and is winning next election. But here we are folks! The man that sat in his office waiting for the rioters to win, hang the VP and after 6 hours realizing he failed sends out his apology and love to those that tried. His own GOP condemned his behavior till the polls told them not to.
So tell me which concern is dead ahead and more alarming by 10 fold? We are a stupid species that works hard at self annihilation than any other species on the planet.
Stock Market Commentary 09/15/23
By Lawrence G. McMillan
"The market is still struggling to find direction, as it remains mired in a narrowing trading range. The "outside" parameters are support at 4330 and resistance at 4540. I continue to feel that a move outside of that range will generate significant, tradeable momentum for the broad market. However, $SPX has recently been trading in an even narrower range than that, after having found some support near the 20-day Moving Average, at 4450.
Equity-only put-call ratios continue to be our most negative indicator. At one point this past week, both ratios curled over for a couple of days, and it seemed that buy signals might be forming. But that was proven false when both moved to new relative highs on Wednesday, September 13th.
Market breadth has been somewhat negative, although Thursday, September 14th was a very strong day for breadth. The breadth oscillator sell signals that went into effect in early September are still in place. That's mostly because they never reached an oversold condition that would set up a buy signal.
Volatility-based indicators continue to be more bullish in their stock market outlook than "market internal" indicators are. $VIX continues to hover near the 13-14 area, which as you can see from the chart in Figure 4 is the yearly low. It seems that large traders (i.e., traders of $SPX options) are not willing to let $VIX drop below there. Alternatively stated, they are finding puts cheap enough to purchase at that level, since they still feel the need to protect the downside.
The trend of $VIX buy signal is still in place, and will continue to be as long as $VIX is trading below its 200-day Moving Average (which is at 18 and declining).
We are about to enter a seasonally bearish week (the week after September option "expiration" i.e., after the third Friday of September). Some studies show that this weakness often continues on through the remainder of September and into October.
Overall, though, the indicators are currently quite mixed, which is what one would expect with $SPX wandering in a trading range in a rather directionless manner. We will continue to trade individual indicator's signals if and when they are confirmed."
S&P 500 (SPX), CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21), and Weighted 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21 w) charts updated each Friday.
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/SPX.JPG?v=1694797453750
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21.JPG?v=1694797453750
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21_W.JPG?v=1694797453750
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/VIX.JPG?v=1694797453750
"......we'll see if bears can hold this to the potential WXY, or if it morphs into something more bullish..."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"SPX finally did something a bit out of the ordinary yesterday and formed what appears to be a WXY complex corrective wave. Experts warn that these types of unusual waves are only going to become more frequent due to climate change.
(I've finally learned from the media that anything bad, particularly if it's also uncommon, should always be linked, however tenuously and without evidence, to "climate change." Do this by citing "experts" or "scientists," as if all scientists view the world the exact same way, in order to spread irrational superstitious fea... ahem, I mean in order to "raise awareness" of the challenges traders face due to climate change, which itself is being made even worse by climate change. Note that nothing good can ever be attributed to climate change, because climate change pauses entirely on beautiful, sunny days and only picks back up again for headlines. The climate changes - of course it does you denier! - but it's not a constant, universal change, and is extremely selective.)"
"Anyway, we'll see if bears can hold this to the potential WXY, or if it morphs into something more bullish due to climate change. Trade safe."
War is over. Last battle ends in a complete rout. Not many even knew we were in one. Romney give up! This is his words.
Romney shared a unique disgust for Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who he thought were too smart to believe Trump won the 2020 election but "put politics above the interests of liberal democracy and the Constitution."
He also was highly critical of Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), who reinvented his persona to become a Trump acolyte after publishing a best-selling memoir about the working class that Romney loved. "I don't know that I can disrespect someone more than J. D. Vance," Romney said.
Hysterical Romney actually declared the GOP puts politics in front of democracy and constitution. never mind. Back to MONEY MONEY MONEY! I do wonder how many dictatorial nations with a stock market does well? As for the 40 year disinflation cycle that also is a KNOWN rhythmic event. What's this? Strikes, wages, stubborn inflation? Anyone remember the 70's? but wait are we still on TRANSITORY?
I stated unequivocally the FED can NOT hit 6% or exceed it on Fed Funds EVER! if they do it is a multi-decade long deep drop.
Thanks RCKS..He sounds a little more positive on his count...Love to see the 4200 level hit.
Oil Rally lead to Higher Inflation (Now what?)
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
" On Monday, SPX rallied up into its next real-time target zone, then reversed:"
"In other news, back in July, I made a prediction -- I didn't specify this at the time (it seemed self-evident), but that prediction was predicated on another prediction: The first prediction was that oil had broken out of a basing pattern and thus would continue rallying. That happened. The second prediction was that this would cause inflation to begin heating up again. And while it took a minute to make itself known in the broader economy, today, we have confirmation that that, too, has happened.
Not much to add beyond that. Trade safe."
Pretzel :
(1) Pretzel presents both a Bull and Bear case.
(2) Pretzel gives both Triggers and Targets
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