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A day after my tirade on Trump and his disgusting behavior we get this headline today.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/john-kelly-confirms-trump-privately-disparaged-us-service-members-vete-rcna118543
John Kelly trumps long time friend and Chief of Staff is recounting the loser and sucker remarks towards the armed forces. So not only is the man a cheat, corrupt to the core willing to sell state secrets for a profit and not only leader of a riot to overthrow his own government he spits on those that protect him and our country.
ANY QUESTIONS??????????
JOLTS report was a big jolt. Shook up the market badly. Inflation implications.
TRUMP VOTERS never hear see read or watch the man in his full splendor. They PRETEND it didn't happen by erasing it. They only want the part of him that promises WHITE MEN will dominate again. Christian of course. They forgive him all horror's as long as he delivers. Evangelic leaders praised the man that held the bible upside down as if it was on fire against a backdrop of tear gassing the PEACEFUL CROWD in order for him to perform his campaign optics.
he mocks the military soldier as SUCKERS! he mocked McCain a real man that served with distinction and was held as a POW and tortured for years even when allowed to end his captivity early but without the rest of the men in captivity. TRUMP was so envious he actually stated He Deserved To be In Prison for getting himself caught. WTF? I am living in a nightmare that gest worse and worse.
I have HUNDREDS of horror stories about this P.O.SHIT. But like HITLER no one gave a shit about his treatment of JEWS as long as THEY themselves profited.
That's 48% of this population. The excuses that TRUMP SUPORTERS come up with is amazing. Biden corrupt, too old. Trump however seems not to have ANY BAD ATTRIBUTES??????????
I will continue to EXPOSE the hypocrisy. Can you imagine someone running against Hitler with all the known exposed horrors he committed and then say but his opponent is weak, corrupt, too old. I mean lame isn't the proper word. how about EVIL as Hitler himself. YOU THE TRUMP VOTER ARE EVIL, pretending you don't quite understand what he actually did. Come on now! if you read any of MY POSTS that no longer is the case. Surprise surprise!
I can pull such despicable sub-human deeds made by TRUMP almost on a daily basis. And the pace will increase as he loses all of NY for his financial schemes. Yet i have to actually try to persuade morons that can't read or comprehend? I suggest you pretend it was your sibling, mother, father that got bludgeoned with a hammer by a lunatic and have the President of USA make a joke about it. YOU the VOTER must be laughing now. Have You No Decency?
EXPAIN AWAY THIS BEHAVIOR. *** STILL WAITING ON THE HORRORS OF BIDEN against so many evil acts by TRUMP! I will list my facts against yours. pathetic.
Trump's Appalling Paul Pelosi Dig Gets Laughs From California GOP Crowd
“We’ll stand up to crazy Nancy Pelosi, who ruined San Francisco,” Trump said to the crowd. “How’s her husband doing, by the way, anybody know?”
“She’s against building a wall at our border, even though she has a wall around her house — which obviously didn’t do a very good job,” he added, seemingly mocking the Democratic congresswoman.
Trump at the time called the incident a “terrible thing.” A week after the incident, the former president’s son Donald Trump Jr. posted memes advocating to ban hammers — the weapon used in the attack.
AND THE CROWD LAUGHED
The former president baselessly called California’s election “rigged” and said he wants to liberate the state from “communist rule,” later saying organized retail thefts in the state could be addressed by shooting looters as they leave stores.
Trump, referring to his recent indictments, mocked President Joe Biden, saying, “Let’s indict the mother******,” suggesting the president uses indictments as a means of destroying the credibility of those he doesn’t like or those polling higher than him, even though his federal charges were brought by an independent prosecutor.
The man truly does represent the best of republicans. he is the man that captures the heart of evangelic voters. A vicious attack on Pelosi husband was mocked because?
Pussy Magnet - you bet! Covid disaster, you bet! Loves Putin and demands we stop funding Ukraine, you bet! Made side deals with China and Saudis for PERSONAL GAINS! You bet! has more lawyers under indictment and losing their license to practice than all presidents, VP's, congressman combined in the history of our nation starting from Washington on. You bet! Hates the military and calls those that serve SUCKERS! you bet. A thousand rioters and TRUMP promises to free all of them because sedition and treason is just a made up concept. You bet! A war hero tortured for years refusing to get out early from prison till his colleges did McCain ridiculed by the draft dodger. You bet!
Dated but relevant list of TRUMPS greatest accomplishments.
https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-reports/president-trumps-staggering-record-of-uncharged-crimes/#table
Or perhaps this one: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/trump-indictment-unsealed/674353/
Useless to talk to Big Foot believers. 2 impeachments political. 4 indictments political. 2 rape cases settled in civil court political. Every accuser, every judge every prosecutor corrupt. His own lawyers are testifying to condemn his outrageous behavior because they themselves are lying pieces of shit. Every single day the corruption mounts and his legal peril and jail time builds. WHY? because he faked a scheme to tell everyone the election was rigged and as the head of the most powerful nation in the world with access to aa 15 agencies which handles fraud found the answer was "THE MOST SECURE ELECTION IN HISTORY". Spoken by his own department head that then got FIRED for saying it. Not a single shred of evidence, where all REPUBLICAN judges laughed him out of court. He predicted this fraud even before the election and his buddy was caught on audio stating his plan was to complain about fraud and if he losses us that to STAY IN POWER!
So who is the fool here. One guess and it isn't everyone else but... Yup you got it. So just don't ever look up Trumps atrocities because you will be foaming at the mouth. Don't ever watch the January 6th incident replayed because it isn't a flattering portrait of a treasonous A'hole.
LETS END THIS STUPIDITY! Give me exact FACTS or even assumptions on what BIDEN did to what HITLER did. That's YOUR comparison. Too DEFLECT? Kind of hard when every single day TRUMP is in one or more court houses calling everyone corrupt but himself. BIDEN compared to Trump is like Mother Teresa compared to Attila the Hun.
In fact lets make it real easy. List Biden's atrocities and i will make it so easy to expose the pure hate and bigotry simply because there is NOTHING THERE! And "I" can prove it! While a simpleton with 5th grade logic and education cn understand the mountain of corrupt evil deeds this sub-human has done.
BRING IT ON! Instead i still get ONE LINERS deflecting. DEFLECT! I stated this 6 years ago and STILL I get the same idiotic one liner response.. You see HITLER wasn't as bad as STALIN! That's YOUR ARGUMENT and in this case calling Biden anything but a normal decent human being in the same breath as this monster is an INSULT!
BTW where is TRUMP TODAY! foaming at the mouth telling idiots like you the world is corrupt and he is the only godlike man.
How did the PANDEMIC pan out for ya? Got the right call? Wait for it...... You see sometimes the most easy simple solution is the one that you stared thru. Refused to see it. here is how i can prove my point. Did YOU ever explain away the Pandemic mistake? An easy call. you know a 100 year destruction coming to our soils. Or defending a man that can't be defended? Pick your poison.
YOU ARE VOTING FOR TRUMP and I have to explain why that isn't a good idea? DUH......
The only argument I have is how could he do as bad or worse than Biden. Talk about morons..Who do you think voted for Biden?
RCKS, Thanks for the chart and info.My one big guru still looking at 4200....
"............the pattern still suggests that the current bounce is most likely a fourth wave, to be followed (after it completes) by a fifth wave below last week's low. If anything changes there, we'll discuss that as appropriate."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Last update opined that the "most likely" scenario was for the current bounce to be a fourth wave, and nothing has happened to alter that so far. Worth mentioning that NYA back-tested its noted broken trend line and was rejected. Another test of the zone near that line is not required, but would be perfectly normal:"
"Next, SPX didn't quite reach the green line -- but again, another go at it, if it happens, shouldn't surprise anyone:"
"Very long-term, SPX is now below its key blue line:"
"Finally, I was looking through last year's chart book, and I just had to share this, because it's weird. First, remember back on May 3, 2022, when I published this chart? (I actually drew the chart in April 2022, but didn't publish immediately.)"
"So here's what's weird... this is the chart as it looks in my old chartbook now:"
"Anyway, (3)/C's timing seems a bit aggressive to me from where I sit now, but sometimes these charts almost draw themselves and can end up being smarter than me, if that makes any sense. So we'll see how that goes. But, however (3)/C goes, the timing of (2)/B (timing is not something I put any conscious thought into) seemed just a bit unreasonable to me.
Oh, almost forgot, gold has opened an option worth being aware of:"
"In conclusion, presently, the pattern still suggests that the current bounce is most likely a fourth wave, to be followed (after it completes) by a fifth wave below last week's low. If anything changes there, we'll discuss that as appropriate. Trade safe."
".....bulls do have some options here, but for now, the "most common" situation would be for the current bounce in SPX and NYA to be a fourth wave."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"As another one bites the dust, I was finally forced to move away from the 80s-music-themed titles. Let's go right to the charts, starting with NYA:"
"SPX captured and exceeded Target 1 from Sept. 8:"
"Bigger picture, SPX is bouncing off the red trend line:"
"There is resistance several places overhead, with 4350ish as a standout:"
"And last but not least, TLT has finally confirmed my wave count from 2022:"
"In conclusion, bulls do have some options here, but for now, the "most common" situation would be for the current bounce in SPX and NYA to be a fourth wave. If things get squirrely, we'll take a closer look at the bull options. Trade safe."
".....the most likely resolution for these patterns is ultimately lower."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Not a whole lot to add to the past few updates, but a couple charts are worth looking at anyway, starting with NYA, which suggests new lows are still lurking out there, one way or another:"
"SPX is in a similar position:"
In conclusion, the most likely resolution for these patterns is ultimately lower. Which really isn't adding anything to the past few updates, but the charts "show the math," so to speak. Be aware that this is potentially dangerous territory for bulls, as unless they can reclaim some key zones, an acceleration of the decline in the fairly near future is very possible. Trade safe.
DERANGED, FASCIST, abortion flip-flop, general deserves the death sentence. I can see why on a daily basis this becomes normal and appreciated by the TRUMP CULT. You see the world is a delusion. the MATRIX has us believe everything around us is real but in truth only TRUMP is real. How the court managed to convince 12 jurors 2 different times to declare defamation against trump for denying RAPING a woman is beyond me. How you morons that support this lunatic reminds me of the 12 year reign by HITLER.
BTW I dare you to actually look up two simple words in your favorite search engine. Trump News. Get back to me when you want to challenge the world is a mirage and trump the only thing that is real. Seeing him, hearing him, also requires you to believe they too have been altered. Spooky.
I Say We're Setting Up For A Major Bottom
SEPTEMBER 24, 2023 AT 10:43 AM
Tom Bowley
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
http://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2023/09/i-say-were-setting-up-for-a-ma-496.html
"It's almost impossible to call market tops and market bottoms using basic technical analysis tools like price and volume. Don't get me wrong, that combination is my favorite during trend-following periods. But trying to spot bearish reversals is difficult when price action keeps riding higher and higher. The same is true in trying to spot bullish reversals when prices keep moving lower and lower. Maybe that seems unconventional to hard-core technicians, but I believe it's the reality. Too many folks say "when this line crosses that line, then this will happen". To me, that's following technical analysis and wearing blinders. Just my two cents.
I use technical price action to confirm what other signals are suggesting. We get plenty of signals on a regular basis - some short-term in nature, others long-term - if we're only willing to listen. While I've been bullish since June 2022, I do recognize short-term warning signals that tell us that risks of remaining long have increased substantially. In mid-July, I turned very cautious short-term and discussed those signals in a "Your Daily 5" episode that aired on July 19th. Let me pull up an S&P 500 chart, so you can see where U.S. equities stood when I fired this warning shot:"
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/24/992c9119-7e85-41ed-b212-fec23ca030f2.jpg
"There were several reasons for the stock market bulls to hit quicksand. Tesla (TSLA), a Wall Street darling and a favorite stock of mine, suggested a possible 20% drop. That call aired the day of TSLA's top and TSLA fell closer to 30% in less than one month. These signals work and help us to manage risk! As I always say, they do NOT guarantee future price action, but they make us aware of increasing risk and that's how you invest more successfully. Since that July top, I've encouraged our EB members to tread very cautiously, whatever that means to each individual member. To some, it's being in cash. To others, it might simply mean to avoid leverage on the long side. But this cautious period is coming to an end."
If you want to see what was discussed on July 19th and why I felt the stock market was in short-term trouble, check out the Your Daily 5 recording on YouTube!
I absolutely LOVE when my signals take the opposite view of the masses. And now that everyone believes we're resuming the prior bear market, my signals are saying HOGWASH. Could we continue to proceed lower? Sure. There are never any guarantees with the stock market. But I see signs that suggest shorting is a VERY HIGH RISK strategy, with those risks growing every day. I'm discussing one major reason why in our FREE EB Digest newsletter that will be published early Monday morning, before the stock market opens. If you're not already an EB Digest subscriber, it's 100% free with no credit card required. Simply CLICK HERE and enter your name and email address. I'll discuss Reason #1 to turn bullish tomorrow morning. And I'll also focus on other reasons to be thinking bullish thoughts when I publish the EB Digest on Wednesday and Friday. Don't wait until it's too late. Check them out NOW!
Happy trading!
Tom
"...Several market are still sitting at or near theoretical support zones -- if bulls can't manage any kind of reactionary bounce, then that tells us something about the strength (or lack thereof) of the market."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
Those of you with internet access may have noticed that today's title continues the long-running tradition (two days) of referencing classic 80s songs. Not sure if I'll try this again on Wednesday, but I Just Can't Get Enough, so I will be Right Here Waiting to see If This Is It or not.
No change from last update, but I did want to bring forward the NYA chart, which I haven't updated in a while, because it's right at rising support. If bulls can't manage any kind of reactionary bounce, then a sustained breakdown here quite likely takes NYA down toward blue 3/C:"
SPX is unchanged:
"Hanging out just below green, and no change:"
"No change to the targets:"
"COMPQ still flirting with next support:"
"In conclusion, no real change to anything. Several market are still sitting at or near theoretical support zones -- if bulls can't manage any kind of reactionary bounce, then that tells us something about the strength (or lack thereof) of the market. Trade safe."
I think it's quite obvious that Trump is under major attack from the world, flesh, devil and the left. They're doing everything in their power to keep him down and from being the next president because they're afraid, scared and insecure of themselves even. It's easy to see as an outsider in the middle ground. Satan always attacks us the most before the blessing.
Here is the real next danger, as real as a known Pandemics path of death. Trump leads by a whopping 10 points! But stick your head in the sand and concentrate on making money in the market. We have less than two year before all is revealed to even the most die hard cult follower. him and his converts have already succeeded in destroying this world in a cataclysmic fashion. Think I exaggerate again? Don't ya know i have been right for a very long time. NO? Think about connecting two dots. One, trump will lead a completed revolution to dictatorial rule as his converts in the Senate, House, and State legislature have already started the process. Don't believe me? just use a search engine and key in Trump GOP influence and changes. Trump and the state legislatures. Funny part of this exercise is that news articles from 2020 had hope he was defeated and after they spell a defeated attitude for our democracy. me i knew the end was here in 2016. I saw the future and it was bleak. Do you know what it is like to watch a time lapsed version of our destruction? I know what all are thinking. I need to take my meds. Funny part of all this is that YOU will need the meds when his reign is complete.
if i was you and had no ability to connect simple dots together i would also question my own sanity. I would at this stage however have a nagging reminder that my preposterous argument on our future has already come true. but alas, you will find ways to dismiss me as a nagging over exaggerating Casandra.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/24/washington-post-abc-poll-trump-10-points-over-biden
Market path: Full proof future. between NOW and the next election we will have a crash of momentous proportions. It will seal our fate forever. Trump will be declared KING! Bet the farm on 2 predictions. One we crash before the next election and two Trump will reign till he dies. Think this over the top? Well explain how his BIGGEST LEAD is on the backs of 2 rape charges convictions, 2 impeachments, 4 indictments, sedition, treason, extortion. Can anyone come close to being an anti-Christ with those credentials?
Extreme bias eventually comes true. been seeing gremlins for a long time now. You never accepted this massive run and was skeptical thru out. missed some great upside. but now that all things are aligning for a big drop you have anxiously declared victory. Not so fast. Like a pandemic we have an external event that is seen by all and most dismiss it as a short term problem. Shut down is inevitable and demanded by the MAGA GOP. It WILL be the deciding factor. The longer the more sever the next drop. This combined with a Fed Funds approaching but refusing to hit 6%, bond yields at crash levels and the dollar breaking out.
The best case scenario is a move higher next week to brace for the full wrath of Octobers shutdown. it will be long, break previous records and cause a stock market capitulation.
This has been anticipated and outcome also a favorite prediction. GOP has no control over the MAGA group and only a concerted detachment from them with the help of the Dems will we see a short shutdown. In other words unlikely.
Stock Market Commentary 09/22/23
By Lawrence G. McMillan
"Technically, $SPX is still within the 4330-4540 trading range, but it is now probing the low end of that range. Prices and internal indicators were deteriorating slowly until the FOMC meeting this week. After that, $SPX took a big drop on Thursday. The fact that the week after September expiration is a seasonally weak period for the market has added to the bearishness. There is now a gap on the $SPX chart, which would be filled on a rally towards 4400, so that represents a resistance area now. Even so, I am still of the opinion that $SPX needs to fall below 4330 or rise above 4540 in order for some sustained momentum to be seen.
Equity-only put-call ratios have toyed with buy signals over the past week. Both ratios moved lower for a few days, giving the appearance to the naked eye that buy signals were being generated (a local maximum on the chart would be a buy signal for the stock market in general). The computer analysis agreed that was the case for the standard ratio (Figure 2) but did not agree with regard to the weighted ratio (Figure 3). Now, with the market having taken a sharp hit on Thursday, both ratios jumped higher again and are on the verge of making a new relative high for this move that began in mid-August. If the ratios do make a new relative high, that will reaffirm the sell signals. In any case, the weighted ratio has remained on a sell signal throughout this month, according to the computer analysis programs.
Market breadth has deteriorated badly. "Stocks only" breadth has been terrible since Labor Day (Sept 5th). NYSE breadth was better than "stocks only" breadth, but it was generally negative, too. Both breadth oscillators are on sell signals, and they are now both in oversold territory. It is going to take several days of positive breadth in order for the "stocks only" breadth oscillator to generate a buy signal. Remember: "Oversold does not mean buy."
Even $VIX may finally be waking up from its persistent slumber. $VIX jumped higher on Thursday and is now in "spiking" mode. The stock market can fall sharply while $VIX is in that mode, but eventually a new "spike peak" buy signal will be generated.
One further observation on the $VIX chart in Figure 4: $VIX has probed down to 13 several times (including about a week ago), but has not been able to fall farther. That represents a level at which "big money" (buyers of $SPX puts) is willing to buy protection. Whether they are correct in needing that protection or not remains to be seen, although it was welcome this week.
In summary, we are not carrying a "core" position as long as $SPX is in the 4330-4540 trading range. But individual indicators have deteriorated as the market has moved lower, generating some sell signals. Oversold conditions may produce buy signals in the coming days, but until they are confirmed, the market is not a "buy" yet."
S&P 500 (SPX), CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21), and Weighted 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21 w) charts updated each Friday.
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/SPX.JPG?v=1695400193314
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21.JPG?v=1695400193314
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21_W.JPG?v=1695400193314
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/VIX.JPG?v=1695400193314
Thanks RCKS...How many times have we had that projection...Back below 2200. lows.JUst have to see I guess.
"I continue to suspect we're in the very early stages of a massive third wave decline, to break the 2022 lows and beyond."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Yesterday, SPX confirmed my prediction from September 6, which was that trade below 4460 implied a trip below 4335. But SPX has done more than that since last update. Let's start with the big picture and work backwards, to understand why my lean from August 18 is seeming even more reasonable now:"
"Note the presumed levels on the "roadmap" sketch above and compare with the red 3 target below -- red 3 should take us perilously close to overlap of the key levels above. That will probably trigger a bounce, which would be red 4 and we'll have to hold our breath there because there will be three waves down (which could always be a corrective ABC) and no overlap yet. Then, if all that is in the correct ballpark, red 5 will take us down to new lows (below red 3, anyway) and finally overlap the key levels."
"Bears finally broke the green trend line, but of course, have yet to hold that against whipsaws, so I don't want to imply that we should be complacent here, as the "complex intermezzo correction" is still on the table (if seemingly less likely):"
"Finally, COMPQ broke red and blue support, but closed the session right at its next support zone, so a bounce isn't unreasonable here, and bears do need to claim that (which I suspect they will) to add confidence:"
"In conclusion, SPX this month has captured two upside targets and two downside targets. The next targets are listed, while bulls' main hope for the foreseeable future seems to be, at best, for a complex correction. And while my lean on August 18 went against the grain at the time, it may not seem so outlandish now, and I continue to suspect we're in the very early stages of a massive third wave decline, to break the 2022 lows and beyond. Trade safe."
"I want to lean toward the bear options, because the world is going to hell in a handbasket and we all know it, but the deck chairs on the Titanic can always be rearranged before it sinks."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Yesterday, SPX confirmed the rare WXY pattern. Experts warned that such patterns would become more common due to climate change, and this pattern JUST HAPPENED (it's clearly become common; aka: recency bias), thereby proving that:
Climate change is real and therefore every statement we make about it is also true.
Anything real is also automatically a "crisis" as long as we repeat the term "crisis" over and over while simultaneously silencing all contrary views.
You have too much freedom.
Actually, ALL Americans have too much freedom. We need to figure out a way to gain control over them since the democratic process is not to be trusted.
Maybe we can convince them to let us take away their cars?
And their stoves and heat.
And their food.
And drive their cost of living through the roof. By fiat if we can't sell them on it.
That would learn 'em.
Err... we mean, totalitarianism would be better for us.
Wait! We mean that stuff will help solve the "crisis" we just proved exists! Refer back to #1.
(The above rant, in part, illustrates how bad logic and propaganda work: Just because WXY was proven true, it does not automatically follow that every -- or any! -- statement we link to WXY is also true.)
SPX found support at the blue trend line:"
"COMPQ broke below red, but also held its blue trend line (so far):"
"Finally, we probably shouldn't entirely ignore the fact that there is a bull option here:"
"I want to lean toward the bear options, because the world is going to hell in a handbasket and we all know it, but the deck chairs on the Titanic can always be rearranged before it sinks. Trade safe."
"....so far, there's nothing that's happened to give bulls much hope, so while bears still have some work to do, they do still appear to have the edge at present."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Last update opined that SPX had formed a WXY complex corrective wave (a WXY is two 3-wave structures, such as two abcs, connected by another 3-wave structure called an X wave) -- personally, I hate WXYs, because the options for such a structure can be endless and thus "WXY" becomes a call that's dependent on your prior reads and bias -- but it appears that's exactly what it was."
"COMPQ is on the edge of a breakdown, so we'll see if bulls can muster any kind of bounce here or not:"
"In conclusion, so far, there's nothing that's happened to give bulls much hope, so while bears still have some work to do, they do still appear to have the edge at present. Trade safe."
Daily barrage of pure evil indeed! Every single day it becomes so depressing to see a bullet train accelerating ever faster and all the spectators marvel at its accomplishments till it derails.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/09/16/us/ken-paxton-impeachment-texas?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20230916&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=cta®i_id=69491354&segment_id=144957&user_id=a4ca8feb8680b5194b7da63cf5583f97
The daily barrage of pure EVIL comes to us with the free press that is as maligned and dismissed as a Pandemic of massive harm comes to our shores.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/16/donald-trump-putin-praise-nbc-interview
maybe trump should ask Putin if he wants to be his running mate if he losses his dictatorial control. Every single day it is pounded in my brain just how corrupt and evil we as a nation have become. Germany had nothing on us. We started out the envy of the world where they were in the dung heap of despair. We only knew of free elections, freedom to spit on our flag, to bash our leaders. We have become so selfish and greedy that it because an entitlement. We have the luxury to place blame on those less fortunate and more willing to advance themselves out of second class citizenry. We prefer slavery as long as we are the slave owners.
To top it off we have the Judicial branch totally corrupted with absolute power to remain that way. Evil with unlimited power to spread more evil and no one and nothing can stop them. 14th Amendment? well that applies to TRUMP like no other. it will be laughed out of court.
Simple question. How many analysts, blogs, opinions called the initial announcement of a Pandemic the start of a nasty drop to come? the complete opposite happened. A vast majority saw this as a non-event, one the market can absorb. Funny after 5 long weeks of a known pandemic and known damage it would cause we preferred to stay optimistic and hope against hope. ONLY an actual death on our soil started the drop. think about this for a moment. We knew with certainty how bad it was, how it always spreads thru the globe. We even saw it spread to the Asian and EU continent. We saw the devastation on nations well before it hit our shores. hardly any person, article or analysts WARNED what was to come. It took massive amounts of money thrown out of helicopters to stop the bleeding and actually see a great opportunity to grab the low prices. BUT it ONLY happened after world government decided to go all in with massive debt and payouts and halt the medical communities complete failure to control the dead and dying.
The only thing this event proved is that we rely on governments to always bail us out and we ignore dangers till well after common sense tells you things are not healthy.
me, i would not be worried about global warming since that boat has sailed. The future is bleak and we are well past point of no return. Maybe in 2 decades we see a dramatic world cost of this folly but for now forgetaboutit! We have an immediate problem dead ahead. Dictatorial control of the world nations and most likely war on a scale unheard of. DEAD HEAT! This pandemic has come and has already done major damage but like the last pandemic we refuse to see the obvious. me, i don't need a mysterious sometime in the future bogeyman to worry about. We have already embraced pure evil because the devil promises to get rid of our own fears and prejudices. Trump lost 2 times on a defamation concerning his RAPE of a woman. FOX the Frankenstein that created Trump already lost defamation on lying about the election and has many more defamation suits they have to defend. 2 impeachments and live January 6th treason from trump as he REFUSED to get military help, demanded he lead the rioters to hang his VP, and demanded the metal detectors be taken down. He sat for 5 to 6 hours alone gleefully watching the riots. When he realized they would lose he reluctantly went on TV to tell them to go home. not before he thanked them and LOVED them all. I mean come on. The biggest danger to our survival is staring us in the face and you want to be concerned about what? Heck many of Trumps own Lawyers need lawyers to keep them out of jail and lose their license. INSNE! but like Hitler's 12 year reign we see what we want and praise his accomplishment.
Majority of JEWS refused to accept reality just like the majority of this voting nation. I can list facts and atrocities by trump and it rolls off the page. I can then ask if any person with that character, deeds can actually win an election and if i masked it as an anonymous made up man they would say that is a stupid question.
Unreal. Perhaps i am crazy, perhaps I see things in a distorted light but for god sakes someone, anyone counter my argument with FACTS! Instead all i hear is one liners. WAKE UP PEOPLE!
October starts the shutdown. WHY? because like FOX NEWS the GOP is connected at the hip with TRUMP. His survival is theirs. They need to destroy the economy BEFORE next election and this is the mechanism handed to them on a silver platter. I suspect like a pandemic we would not get too concerned till November comes and we have no resolution. Any droop in October will be small in comparison. The GOP will make sure this economy is BROKEN before next election where TRUMP will win. Spooky to even set up a scenario where HITLER lost the war and is winning next election. But here we are folks! The man that sat in his office waiting for the rioters to win, hang the VP and after 6 hours realizing he failed sends out his apology and love to those that tried. His own GOP condemned his behavior till the polls told them not to.
So tell me which concern is dead ahead and more alarming by 10 fold? We are a stupid species that works hard at self annihilation than any other species on the planet.
Stock Market Commentary 09/15/23
By Lawrence G. McMillan
"The market is still struggling to find direction, as it remains mired in a narrowing trading range. The "outside" parameters are support at 4330 and resistance at 4540. I continue to feel that a move outside of that range will generate significant, tradeable momentum for the broad market. However, $SPX has recently been trading in an even narrower range than that, after having found some support near the 20-day Moving Average, at 4450.
Equity-only put-call ratios continue to be our most negative indicator. At one point this past week, both ratios curled over for a couple of days, and it seemed that buy signals might be forming. But that was proven false when both moved to new relative highs on Wednesday, September 13th.
Market breadth has been somewhat negative, although Thursday, September 14th was a very strong day for breadth. The breadth oscillator sell signals that went into effect in early September are still in place. That's mostly because they never reached an oversold condition that would set up a buy signal.
Volatility-based indicators continue to be more bullish in their stock market outlook than "market internal" indicators are. $VIX continues to hover near the 13-14 area, which as you can see from the chart in Figure 4 is the yearly low. It seems that large traders (i.e., traders of $SPX options) are not willing to let $VIX drop below there. Alternatively stated, they are finding puts cheap enough to purchase at that level, since they still feel the need to protect the downside.
The trend of $VIX buy signal is still in place, and will continue to be as long as $VIX is trading below its 200-day Moving Average (which is at 18 and declining).
We are about to enter a seasonally bearish week (the week after September option "expiration" i.e., after the third Friday of September). Some studies show that this weakness often continues on through the remainder of September and into October.
Overall, though, the indicators are currently quite mixed, which is what one would expect with $SPX wandering in a trading range in a rather directionless manner. We will continue to trade individual indicator's signals if and when they are confirmed."
S&P 500 (SPX), CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21), and Weighted 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21 w) charts updated each Friday.
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/SPX.JPG?v=1694797453750
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21.JPG?v=1694797453750
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21_W.JPG?v=1694797453750
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/VIX.JPG?v=1694797453750
"......we'll see if bears can hold this to the potential WXY, or if it morphs into something more bullish..."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"SPX finally did something a bit out of the ordinary yesterday and formed what appears to be a WXY complex corrective wave. Experts warn that these types of unusual waves are only going to become more frequent due to climate change.
(I've finally learned from the media that anything bad, particularly if it's also uncommon, should always be linked, however tenuously and without evidence, to "climate change." Do this by citing "experts" or "scientists," as if all scientists view the world the exact same way, in order to spread irrational superstitious fea... ahem, I mean in order to "raise awareness" of the challenges traders face due to climate change, which itself is being made even worse by climate change. Note that nothing good can ever be attributed to climate change, because climate change pauses entirely on beautiful, sunny days and only picks back up again for headlines. The climate changes - of course it does you denier! - but it's not a constant, universal change, and is extremely selective.)"
"Anyway, we'll see if bears can hold this to the potential WXY, or if it morphs into something more bullish due to climate change. Trade safe."
War is over. Last battle ends in a complete rout. Not many even knew we were in one. Romney give up! This is his words.
Romney shared a unique disgust for Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who he thought were too smart to believe Trump won the 2020 election but "put politics above the interests of liberal democracy and the Constitution."
He also was highly critical of Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), who reinvented his persona to become a Trump acolyte after publishing a best-selling memoir about the working class that Romney loved. "I don't know that I can disrespect someone more than J. D. Vance," Romney said.
Hysterical Romney actually declared the GOP puts politics in front of democracy and constitution. never mind. Back to MONEY MONEY MONEY! I do wonder how many dictatorial nations with a stock market does well? As for the 40 year disinflation cycle that also is a KNOWN rhythmic event. What's this? Strikes, wages, stubborn inflation? Anyone remember the 70's? but wait are we still on TRANSITORY?
I stated unequivocally the FED can NOT hit 6% or exceed it on Fed Funds EVER! if they do it is a multi-decade long deep drop.
Thanks RCKS..He sounds a little more positive on his count...Love to see the 4200 level hit.
Oil Rally lead to Higher Inflation (Now what?)
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
" On Monday, SPX rallied up into its next real-time target zone, then reversed:"
"In other news, back in July, I made a prediction -- I didn't specify this at the time (it seemed self-evident), but that prediction was predicated on another prediction: The first prediction was that oil had broken out of a basing pattern and thus would continue rallying. That happened. The second prediction was that this would cause inflation to begin heating up again. And while it took a minute to make itself known in the broader economy, today, we have confirmation that that, too, has happened.
Not much to add beyond that. Trade safe."
Monday's Pretzel Update
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Since capturing its downside targets, SPX has continued bouncing. I've noted the next upside targets on the near-term chart:"
"Bigger picture, bears do still need to ultimately claim the green trend line, and while the bear options look better given the overlap at the blue a/1 high (on the chart above), until that green line fails, we can't entirely rule out bull options such as an ending diagonal (with the apparent three wave rally being wave i of the diagonal) and so on:"
"Not much to add beyond that, other than to pay respects to 9/11. Trade safe."
Friday's Pretzel Update
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Last update outlined the next key downside levels, presented as two if/then targets -- both "ifs" happened, and both "then" targets were subsequently captured:"
"The chart above outlines the next potential targets, as long as the recent swing high holds. Beyond that, nothing to add to the big picture. Trade safe."
expiration week
they will try to hold this market up thru most of the week.
extremely unlikely market would top this early into expiration week
market above the 9/14 MA
markets usually do not top with a bottoming tail candle early in expiration week.
this is the major problem with just using EW counts.
EW counts are just 1 piece of info.
https://schrts.co/tksfXIHt
".....SPX reached its target zone and was rejected, we'll see if bears can do more with that."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Last week's updates focused on the next upside target zone for SPX, and that zone was captured on Friday:"
"While it's obviously of no harm to bears to see SPX rejected from its target zone, they do still have things to accomplish to get to the next phase. SPX (above) outlines some of the immediately-close zones, while COMPQ (below) takes a broader view:"
"On the flip side, bulls are still below their next meaningful resistance zone:"
"In conclusion, SPX reached its target zone and was rejected, we'll see if bears can do more with that. Trade safe."
Part 2 Tom Bowley's Latest View of Current Market action
"Listen, I don't fight the signals. This is one of my PRIMARY charts to help me spot short-term market reversals. When I get warning signs of a short-term top and the increasing probability of a short-term period of selling/consolidation, the 5-day SMA of the CPCE is a key in helping to spot when the bleeding stops. It did so perfectly on August 18th, when I wrote my article at StockCharts, "Are You Ready For A Huge Rally?" I use proven methods, strategies, and charts to help me manage my downside risk and to spot key market reversals. This article was simply one example of that. Currently, this 5-day CPCE is neutral, returning from its recent extreme pessimism reading."
Now for the long-term, ocean-liner signal:
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/0b8a9c5d-3157-4e59-b16c-3275b3244918.jpg
"Think of this as the Big Picture of sentiment. History tells us that when the trend in sentiment changes, so too does the stock market direction. EVERY SINGLE TIME. When the stock market struggles for a long period of time, like it did during the 2022 CYCLICAL bear market, traders grow more and more pessimistic. The period starts off with retail traders not believing that we're going lower, so they continue to trade more on the long side, buying calls. It's not until after they lose a boatload of money that they begin to swing to the pessimistic side. By the time they do, most of the market damage has already been inflicted. At some point, the extreme pessimism marks a significant market bottom, but by then, retail traders have grown excessively bearish and can't fathom a move higher again until....you guessed it.....the market has already rebounded substantially.
Look at the chart above. Once the 253-day (1 year) moving average of the equity only put call ratio has risen to an extremely high reading, the sellers are DONE and the stock market rallies. And when retail traders grow too bullish after market advances, stocks tend to perform poorly, or at least flat. Again, I don't make this stuff up. Look at the chart and see it for yourself. The key on this ocean-liner chart is THE TURN - either the turn lower after a significant rise or the turn higher after a significant decline (or long-lasting consolidation period). In my opinion, this ocean-liner signal has reached a peak and is turning lower. I believe that will ultimately result in U.S. equity prices rising significantly over the foreseeable future.
Volatility Index ($VIX):
The VIX is interesting, because it has a very strong inverse relationship vs. the S&P 500. When stocks gain ground, the VIX drops. When stocks lose ground, the VIX rises. Here's a long-term chart to illustrate:"
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/2c7f713f-2e44-46ec-9fbe-171a97e18219.jpg
"I think the inverse relationship is quite clear, especially when you see how many times we're in the -0.50 to -1.00 range vs. the +0.50 to +1.00 range. But we do see daily readings positive occasionally and when that positive correlation does appear, the signals are quite interesting. Here's what I mean:"
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/760a09dc-f491-4037-9871-b671aeefde0e.jpg
"Over the past two years, we've only received 3 signals (correlation moving into positive territory), but they've been excellent signals and I've written about them. The first one in November 2021 appeared after a significant short-term advance. Note how we saw a key reversal into the second half of November. The second signal appeared in the first week of January 2023. I wrote about it and spoke about it:"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4kKNWDOQD0&t=308s
"I'm posting these to provide examples of how we use our signals to PREDICT the market's next move, rather than simply tell you how it already moved. Market Guidance is about the future and no one calls it better than EarningsBeats.com. I believe we've proven that over a very tumultuous period that included a pandemic-related cyclical bear market, one of the strongest 2-year bull market advances in our history, a cyclical bear market prompted by rising inflation and a hawkish Fed, and yet another very strong bull market rally in 2023. Intermediate-term calls, both bullish and bearish, have helped guide traders and many times it's these sentiment signals that do the majority of the work.
Intermarket Relationships
Many times I refer to these intermarket relationships as sustainability ratios. They provide us clues as to the likelihood that a current market trend will continue. If the S&P 500 is rising, I feel much more confident about it continuing if our sustainability ratios are rising as well. I believe some of these ratios are more important than others, so I'll provide the two that are most important to me:
Consumer discretionary vs. Consumer staples (XLY:XLP):
Our GDP is comprised of two-thirds consumer spending. If we truly want to see into the future, we need to be aware of how the consumer is doing, specifically by evaluating the relationship of discretionary stocks (these companies provide us the things we WANT) vs. staples stocks (these companies provide us the things we NEED). The S&P 500 thrives in a "risk-on" market environment that includes consumers spending money on the things they WANT. The XLY:XLP ratio provides us the current market "temperature" on how the big Wall Street firms view this relationship. As long as we keep seeing higher highs and higher lows on this XLY:XLP ratio, I'm going to be bullish. You must keep in mind that, during consolidation/selling periods, money will rotate from the XLY to the XLP. That's normal market behavior. So I don't grow bearish every time this ratio declines. It's more of a Big Picture review of the ratio vs. the S&P 500. Check this out:"
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/5618a21f-b77c-47a2-82d4-315274fadc25.jpg
"The above XLY:XLP chart includes a proprietary User-Defined Index that tracks this ratio on an INTRADAY basis that excludes opening gaps. I do this to see how this relationship is performing during the trading day to rid myself of all the market maker noise that surrounds opening gaps. You can see from the above chart that the XLY:XLP intraday ratio was performing much better in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, providing us a much more bullish signal, while the market-maker-manipulated gaps showed us a more bearish picture (steady declines, falling red directional lines). The blue directional lines in the top panel of the chart SCREAMED at us that money was rotating very aggressively during the trading day. In other words, the big Wall Street crowd was buying and that's always a bullish signal.
NASDAQ 100 vs. S&P 500 (QQQ:SPY)
History tells us that the NASDAQ 100 outperforms the S&P 500 during secular bull market advances. The reason is simple. Growth stocks outperform value stocks when our economy is strong, strengthening, or expected to strengthen. The NASDAQ has more representation of growth stocks, so we should view a rising QQQ:SPY quite bullishly. Here's how this chart looks now, also providing the INTRADAY QQQ:SPY relationship to exclude those manipulative gaps:"
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/6bbc98a6-5ec8-44f2-a036-766a039aed8c.jpg
"Before I analyze this chart, let me address one question that ALWAYS seems to surface. The NAME of this User-Defined Index chart is "@SPYQQQ". That does not dictate the order in which this ratio is calculated. I can PROMISE you that it's based on the intraday QQQ:SPY ratio. I just want to be clear about that, because many have suggested I did the calculation backwards. Remember, it's just a name. In hindsight, I wish I had picked the name "@QQQSPY", but I didn't.
The red directional line in the top panel suggests that Wall Street has begun to rotate away from growth and that should not be ignored. Historically, we begin to see much better action in value-oriented stocks vs. growth-oriented, so it's important to note this subtle signal. The QQQ:SPY ratio seems to be holding up in that 2nd panel, but it's primarily because of the opening gaps. The QQQ has been gapping higher, but it's been followed by intraday selling and rotation towards the SPY. That isn't necessarily bearish. It's simply a signal that we could see leadership rotate to areas like industrials, financials, health care, and energy. And that's how the market generally trades in the final months of the year.
Trade Setups
As I mentioned above, we're beginning to see the historical leaves change as September arrives. I am focused on uncovering value-oriented industrials and financials to lead us into year end as the torch is passed from technology. That's why the stocks below are not AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, META, AMZN, GOOGL, etc. I expect those stocks to pause in Q4 as they normally do. In the meantime, here are 2 that I believe could be solid trades into year end:"
JP MorganChase (JPM):
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/ef928fa9-c733-49a5-a716-b4e93bf2b113.jpg
"I could see JPM dipping into the low 140s, possibly into the upper 130s, but I really like the recent selling (5 weeks running) that's left JPM at its rising 20-week EMA just prior to a very bullish seasonal pattern. Over the past 11 years, JPM has average returns as follows by quarter:
Jan-Mar: -1.9%
Apr-Jun: +4.1%
Jul-Sep: +2.7%
Oct-Dec: +12.9%
JPM loves Q4. If history repeats itself, don't be surprised to see JPM hitting all-time highs by the end of the year."
Boeing (BA):
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/b31ffca1-ab0a-409c-bdea-420f532bd656.jpg
Not many stocks were rocked as hard as BA during the pandemic and in the years following. It now seems to be on a much better trajectory, however. I like the fact that BA spent much of 2023 in a tight range between 195 and 220, not really participating in the market's advance. On extremely heavy volume in July, accompanying its quarterly results, BA broke out of this range and is now trading almost squarely on that prior resistance near 220. Like JPM, it has a historically-strong period that's about to begin. Here's how BA's average quarterly returns unfold:
Jan-Mar: +2.4%
Apr-Jun: +1.6%
Jul-Sep: +6.5%
Oct-Dec: +11.4%
I'd say BA is in its sweet spot historically and the technical conditions support an advance from here as well.
JPM and BA are both in that value camp and represent financials and industrials, respectively. I believe both will outperform the S&P 500 from now through year end.
Looking Ahead
Upcoming Earnings
There isn't likely to be a lot of market movement based upon key earnings reports. Most large companies that could influence the benchmark S&P 500 and/or the NASDAQ 100 have long since reported results. Here are a few interesting companies reporting this week, however, by day and market cap:
Tuesday: ZS ($22 billion)
Wednesday: None
Thursday: DOCU ($10 billion)
Friday: KR ($33 billion)
Key Economic Reports
The beige book is likely to grab attention and headlines on Wednesday afternoon at 2pm ET, but otherwise it'll be a fairly slow week for economic reports. Key economic news will be out next week, including both the monthly CPI and PPI reports. Those will come one week before the Fed decides whether or not to raise interest rates.
This week's reports:
Tuesday: Factory orders
Wednesday: PMI composite, ISM services, beige book
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, productivity and costs
Friday: Wholesale inventories
Historical Data
Each week, I'll provide you the average annualized returns for each calendar day and by index. Here's the balance of this week:
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/21ba98b1-a7b0-459a-aac5-c015051034f0.jpg
The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.
Historically, I'd say next week favors small caps, but let me say that seasonal information ALWAYS takes a back seat to technical analysis and current market conditions.
"Final Thoughts
Whew! This is obviously a very lengthy report. There are many charts that I won't address on a weekly basis as they simply don't change that often. I'll likely discuss the Big Picture 100-year chart at the beginning of every month. Otherwise, there'll be plenty of week-to-week redundancy. The "ocean-liner" CPCE is another chart that can be reviewed monthly. And I may add a section here or there in various weekly market reports. But what you see above is the majority of what you can expect in the future on Sundays/Mondays. Remember, this in-depth analysis will REPLACE the Monday Daily Market Report. Those DMRs will be published Tuesdays through Fridays.
As I look at the stock market right now, I have several thoughts:
We're in a SECULAR bull market, so you won't hear or see me talking bearishly about the stock market long-term unless conditions change immensely
It's September! The second half of September is the truly bearish part of the month. Until then, we typically see average annualized market returns comparable to the S&P 500 throughout the entire year
While not addressed in this long-term weekly report, there are 60-minute negative divergences that could impact this week's trading - to the downside. From a long-term perspective, however, this VERY short-term momentum warning is much like a gnat on an elephant's butt. It really doesn't matter.
One very important key that I'll be watching throughout September is the possible rotation into more value-oriented stocks. Just like in 2022, don't view this as bearish rotation. The growth stocks deserve a pause and areas like semiconductors will produce long-term negative divergences on the weekly chart if we see further strength.
Earnings and economic news will be very light, so we'll likely see market action follow the technicals, with little in the way of fundamental news to digest.
Please always try to keep perspective in mind when you evaluate the U.S. stock market. Honestly, I believe most every analyst needs a big dose of perspective from time to time. And retail traders? Puh-lease, most cannot look past what's happened in the past week or month, let alone stepping back and viewing the Big Picture chart from space. There are so many emotional traders, responding to the latest CNBC headline. Don't be in that group or market makers will get the best of you."
Feedback
I hope you enjoyed this very first edition of our EB Weekly Market Report! We'd absolutely love your feedback, whether positive or negative. Let us know what you think by sending us your comments to "support@earningsbeats.com".
30-Day FREE Trial
Let me reiterate that we have a 30-day FREE trial to our ENTIRE service that now includes this EB Weekly Market Report. I believe I can help you steer clear of big trouble in the stock market - like I did for EB.com members at the beginning of the 2022 cyclical bear market - while enjoying the benefits of these scintillating secular bull market advances. Simply CLICK HERE to get your trial subscription started!
Thanks and happy trading!
Tom
Part 1........ Very long post, Part 2 will post next........
SEPTEMBER 04, 2023 AT 06:00 PM
Tom Bowley
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
https://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2023/09/heres-my-latest-view-of-curren-964.html
"Hello to all my StockCharts supporters! First of all, thank you for your readership of my Trading Places blog, which is now in its 8th year. Also, thanks to all of you that watch my Trading Places LIVE shows that air on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays at 9:00am ET. I really appreciate your loyalty and support!
Today, we launched a new "EB Weekly Market Report" product that will be published every week on Sundays (occasionally Mondays) and will be made available as part of our regular service. There is no increased membership cost as a result of this new product. I am providing our first edition of this new weekly report below, so that you can get a sense of the in-depth analysis and research that we do at EarningsBeats.com. If you like the report, please take advantage of our 30-day FREE trial and try out all of our services for the next month, including the next four editions of this EB Weekly Market Report. September can be a cruel month, so get our latest thoughts as we navigate what historically has been a very difficult month.
************************************************************************************************************
Below is our first EB Weekly Market Report, which will be published on either Sunday or Monday of every week. It will replace our Monday EB Daily Market Report and provide all of our members with a broader "Big Picture" outlook on the U.S. stock market. Our market outlook will focus more on longer-term weekly charts, as opposed to the daily charts more often used in our EB Daily Market Report. We believe it enhances our current product lineup and appeals to everyone - those with a longer-term mindset and those focused primarily on the near-term.
Because of our "top-down" approach to trading, it makes a lot of sense to begin each week with a Big Picture focus, citing the current long-term technical outlook and how that might impact the market given our short-term signals that we discuss daily. This EB Weekly Market Report will also provide a consistent, once-per-week review at key sentiment and intermarket relationships that we value so highly at EarningsBeats.com and has helped us to guide our members through a very tumultuous 3-4 year period, beginning with the 2020 pandemic, right through the most recent 2022 cyclical bear market and subsequent secular bull market advance.
We'll also review the prior week's action and provide trade setups, but mostly with a longer-term mindset - think of longer-term swing trading, which should appeal to those of you that like the idea of longer-term momentum trading, providing wider stops and targets.
Let's get started with our very first edition of our EB Weekly Market Report, beginning with the action from last week."
Weekly Market Recap
Major Indices
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/fb73d330-7884-4b7e-9e4c-2158ed6d2c24.jpg
"While we saw strength across most areas of the U.S. stock market last week, small and mid caps did show leadership. For this leadership to continue, it'll be important to see consistent strength from industrials, financials, health care, and energy as these are important sectors weighted heavier in the IWM than what we see in the benchmark S&P 500. For mid caps (MDY), industrials comprise 22.4% of the entire ETF, followed by consumer discretionary and financials."
Sectors
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/6757be77-d542-43d7-af72-7320825bb3b2.jpg
"Clearly, there was some rotation last week away from growth and into value, though growth still performed fairly well, as evidenced by the leadership in technology. The best period of the year for growth vs. value is May through August, though the first 4 months of the year are relatively strong as well. However, we've seen historical bullishness from value stocks vs. growth stocks during the final 4 months of the year, starting with September. We've had a big run in technology and other growth areas, so repositioning now into more value and less growth makes sense for many."
Top 10 Industries Last Week
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/38b83eb0-4f83-49e7-99a1-3de26bb8d9e3.jpg
"Both home construction and semiconductors have had HUGE runs in 2023 and have helped to lead U.S. stocks higher, but both will sport MAJOR negative divergences on their weekly charts should they reach new highs any time soon. Check these out:"
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/aa491e7a-3930-4247-95a1-4712933fe8cf.jpg
"You can see what's happened in the past when home construction stocks reach a weekly PPO of 7.5 (red-shaded area). It doesn't necessarily result in a massive selloff, but we should certainly lower our expectations bar, given how much this group has run. And if the DJUSHB breaks out again, it'll likely be accompanied by a massive negative divergence. Remember, it's not always about being right or wrong, it's about managing risk. I see a TON of risk in this chart and one of the weakest calendar months for this group since this secular bull market began in 2013 is September. Maybe we see a September swoon with a later rally in October and November. November is the group's"
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/7813c658-a59c-4e60-abe2-ce72cf7e8824.jpg
"I believe we're in a secular bull market and we're going higher. So it PAINS me to think any bearish thoughts about one of my favorite industry groups. But history doesn't lie. The charts don't lie. Semiconductors have been a clear leader - not only during this advance in 2023, but also throughout the entire secular bull market run. I could argue, however, that this group has not been this overbought since the secular bull market began. I've highlighted 5 times (including right now) the DJUSSC has seen its weekly RSI move to the mid-70s or higher with black-dotted vertical lines. I've also highlighted that the current weekly PPO had never reached 10 - until the 2023 surge. I LOVE this group, but it needs a period of consolidation BADLY. While I won't say it can't go higher in the short-term from here, I absolutely would not be surprised at all to see it fall into a period of"
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/683c4159-0a81-4f5f-9319-fd1d181fb696.jpg
"One signal that can scare me is when I see defensive areas of the stock market lead during an advance. Needless to say, I feel very comfortable with last week's rally as the Bottom 10 industries is LITTERED with defensive groups. When I look at these groups on a longer-term weekly chart, I believe health care providers ($DJUSHP) is one group that could be poised to reverse. Recreational services ($DJUSRQ) is another. Take a look:"
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/3ee62892-2494-4a0c-a515-dd7b7c221fbc.jpg
"Health care providers have been in a solid channel throughout this secular bull market, interrupted only by the 2020 pandemic scare. Otherwise, the channel is almost perfect. Notice where we are right now, testing the lower channel line. These tend to be the absolute best long-term entry points. Also, the green-dotted vertical lines mark the PPO trips and bottoms deep into negative territory. I typically like momentum trades, including areas that are rising. But I'd have to say, from a longer-term perspective, buying stocks in areas testing critical support would likely be a better trading opportunity for many of you, especially those of you that don't like to chase, but would rather buy at or near bottoms. One final thought. Seasonally, the best two-consecutive-month period for health care providers is easily October-November, which is right around the corner."
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/b895be2b-3578-4dd0-92e1-44a41aab54c3.jpg
"Ordinarily, I'd be concerned about a group where its weekly PPO just touched 10. However, we have seen a pullback to the rising 20-week EMA that's helped to relieve those overbought conditions. Also, let's keep in mind this group was tortured during the 2020 pandemic. Even after the huge recent advance, the group is still down more than 40% from its pre-pandemic high. I'm looking for a rebound off this rising 20-week EMA test. If I break down this group's historical performance by quarter since 2013, here's what it looks like:
Jan-Mar: -1.2%
Apr-Jun: +1.0%
Jul-Sep: +2.3%
Oct-Dec: +7.7%
We're moving into the sweet spot of the year for recreational services.
Top 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100"
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/69dded4b-85ad-4092-a835-db335f551b92.jpg
Bottom 10 Stocks - S&P 500/NASDAQ 100
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/622c9c20-11e7-4cb1-9d58-5309d69c565e.jpg
"Big Picture - September 2023
It all starts here. When I talk about "perspective" with respect to the U.S. stock market, this chart is the poster child. The first thing we must all understand when we approach stock trading is whether we're in a SECULAR bull market or SECULAR bear market. During each, we often see countertrend CYCLICAL bear markets and CYCLICAL bull markets, respectively. But, if you want to achieve a higher success rate trading stocks, it's imperative that you get this first step right. With long-term perspective, you can see short-term volatility and countertrend moves much more clearly and BEFORE they happen. Without that long-term perspective, your short-term view can get very cloudy and, unfortunately, very emotional. Emotional trading leads to BIG losses. We need to trade and invest with CLARITY and CONFIDENCE to understand the next LIKELY move in U.S. stocks."
Here's what I'm seeing when I pull up my 100-year chart on the S&P 500:
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/21ca2a48-8552-4a5a-9f79-fb3c3f0f4e81.jpg
September Update:
"We can talk about different signals on this chart, but for today, let's focus on those two bottom panels - the long-term 120-month rate of change (ROC) and the 240-month ROC. These represent 10-year and 20-year "look back" periods to see how far the S&P 500 has run over those two time frames. In the 120-month ROC, the 1950s-1960s SECULAR bull market saw an ROC high of just over 300%. The 1980s-1990s SECULAR bull market reached above 350%. The current 2010s-2020s SECULAR bull market nearly touched 300%, but remains slightly beneath the prior two SECULAR bull markets in terms of a 10-year ROC. So for those that have screamed this bull market has run too much, I'd direct you to this chart, which clearly reflects this has been a more subdued secular bull market (at least during the first 10 years) than the previous two.
You need to remember one thing about historical SECULAR bull markets. They tend to last 20 years, not 10. And the bottom panel shows us the 20-year ROC. In the 50s and 60s, we topped close to 750%. In the 80s and 90s, that top was closer to 1400%. The current SECULAR bull market has another 10 years to run. Where might this 20-year ROC reach? That's the exciting part and one reason why I believe we'll see the S&P 500 perhaps 3x the level we're at right now. Yes, that's right. I'm calling for an S&P 500 that likely reaches 12000-15000 by the end of this decade or into the early part of the 2030s. We are in one of those secular bull market periods that you CANNOT rebound from if you don't take advantage of it when it occurs. I fully suspect history will repeat itself and that much of the 2030s and 2040s will be VERY difficult for U.S. equities - much like the 2000s, 1970s, and 1930s/1940s were.
One other piece of this chart to note is the monthly PPO. I've highlighted the secular bull market years in blue shading. Any time we see a correction or a cyclical bear market, we see the monthly PPO dip down close to or perhaps touch the zero line. When we begin to turn higher off of that centerline test, we historically have seen very significant stock market advances that have lasted YEARS, not weeks or months. IGNORE the media and all their BS headlines and stick to the technical signals on the charts."
Currently, it's ALL ABOARD the Northbound Train (with pitstops along the way, of course).
Major Indices
This week, let's look at the 10-year weekly chart on the S&P 500:
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/9c379ca6-eb1a-4660-8a50-4a55a920e5aa.jpg
"We are in a beautiful channel that began off the financial crisis low of 2009. That low, along with the 2020 pandemic low, were "fire sale" lows, triggered by extreme pessimism. They serve as very important lows in our current uptrend. I believe the ONLY way this line is tested is if we hit another period of EXTREME pessimism and panic. I really don't see anything on the horizon that would trigger such a selloff. A possible event might be a surge in inflation, with the Fed hitting the accelerator on rate hikes, maybe announcing 50-basis-point or 75-basis-point rate hikes, taking the fed funds rate well over 5-6%. While anything is possible, I certainly wouldn't invest my money based on this long shot. Inflation has been trending lower for months and there is absolutely no sign of this possibility on the charts. Wall Street has not and is not turning defensive right now. Therefore, I say stick with the long side as the weekly chart corroborates that Big Picture 100-year monthly chart.
When we become stretched in this current channel (red circles), testing the upper channel line, that's the time to be thinking caution again. Each of those prior red circles has triggered an ensuing period of consolidation/selling to take price back down to or near the middle, blue-dotted trendline. We have plenty of upside available before we'll need to worry about that.
Sentiment
Equity-only put-call ratio ($CPCE):
I use two primary CPCE signals, one short-term (speed boat) and the other long-term (ocean-liner). The stock market repeatedly moves higher and lower in both uptrending and downtrending markets. But once you've established the primary trend, which, in my opinion, is clearly higher, you can apply the 5-day equity only put call ratio ($CPCE) to help spot key short-term market tops and bottoms. Recently, the pendulum swung to extreme pessimism, which helped me call a bottom. Check it out:"
http://stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/04/5abe9220-b764-4984-ab90-2b1000d88404.jpg
He should be pretty good. He has been using Ewave for a long time. Thank you
Pokersam's views going back to August 10 almost a month back from today......
9/1/23
"Chart Update. Yawn, eh? [iii] down should be fun."
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/public/9115230_49d98bb9aea72f6a30d71e6b504abb77.png
https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=34402782
https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=34401160
To: POKERSAM who wrote (1525) 8/31/2023 12:25:08 PM
From: POKERSAM 1 Recommendation Read Replies (1)
1538
of 1540
"I think everyone understands that we are still in wave [ii]. But just in case you are new to EWP I thought I should explain. I have in my last few posts given an explanation of the possibilities for the retrace of a wave two. If you go back and read them it may help you keep up,
The other info that gives hints that two may be over is the wave structure. At the current high of 4532 the wave structure is such that a top could have occurred. We now await confirmation. We may get it and we may not.
A further extension is possible. IMO the odds at this point favor the top being in."
Here is the updated chart.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/public/9115230_49c40f22de437dd58d6b0bbd50b83d15.png
https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=34395702
From: POKERSAM 8/26/2023 1:05:27 PM
1 Recommendation Read Replies (1)
1522
of 1540
"New targets for $SPX. Short term 4284 adjusted down from 4291.
Due to count adjustment, we are now in longer term minute wave [iii] down."
https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=34379097
From: POKERSAM 8/10/2023 11:09:22 AM
3 Recommendations Read Replies (1)
1506
of 1540
"(ii) hit 4527. Next target for (iii) is 4291."
You MUST Be Aware of This Seasonality Change
SEPTEMBER 02, 2023 AT 02:01 PM
http://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2023/09/you-must-be-aware-of-this-seas-825.html
Tom Bowley
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
"I love the seasonality information that StockCharts.com provides. It's important to keep in mind that seasonal tendencies are secondary indicators. I don't buy and sell based on them, because the price/volume combination will always be my primary indicator. But if technical indications point to higher prices and seasonality supports this technical thought process, then my confidence in a strategy or individual trade soars. I want to first take a trip down memory lane. I always shake my head when the "Go Away in May" crowd begins to chant in late April. In case you weren't watching, the S&P 500 gained ground in 2023 AFTER these chants as follows:
May 2023: +0.25%
June 2023: +6.47%
July 2023: +3.11%
It's only 10% return roughly (sarcasm). History, if you actually study it, suggests the true "go away" period to be July 17th through September 26th.
The 2023 gains on the NASDAQ have been even more impressive:
May 2023: +5.80%
June 2023: +6.59%
July 2023: +4.05%
That's over a 16% return in just 3 months! "Go away in May" at your own risk.
One important piece of history I shared with EarningsBeats.com members several months ago was the relative strength in growth stocks (IWF) vs. value stocks (IWD) from May through August. The "Go away in May" crowd totally misses the BEST four consecutive months of relative outperformance of growth stocks, which I find sad. Check out this relative seasonal chart of the IWF vs. the IWD since this secular bull market started in 2013:"
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/02/2c250d85-2dcb-453b-af40-afc07330a1da.jpg
"It takes just a moment to break those average monthly returns into three periods as follows:
January through April: +1.9%
May through August: +5.3%
September through December: -2.1%
Growth stocks PUMMEL value stocks from May through August (paying attention "Go away in May" folks?), after outperforming during the first 4 months of the year. But September 1 is when seasonal winds tend to blow from the other direction. Those final 4 months tend to result in underperformance of growth stocks.
Here's the last year's chart, which shows that this IWF:IWD relationship has followed the historical pattern to a "T":"
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/02/d94dd959-c34f-4b32-8eb4-38f63a9c4926.jpg
"While growth stocks have experienced a significant absolute and relative run to the upside in 2023, it makes sense to at least consider the possibility that winds will soon be blowing from a different direction.
There's one value stock in particular that would absolutely LOVE this shift in wind direction as it's ready to advance from a technical perspective and it LOVES the end of the year historically. In fact, it's averaged gaining 10.5% in Q4 alone since the secular bull market began in 2013! I'll feature it in our FREE EB Digest newsletter on Tuesday morning before the market opens. If you'd like to receive it and you aren't already an EB Digest subscriber, simply CLICK HERE and sign up by entering your name and email address. That's all it takes! There's no credit card required and you can unsubscribe at any time."
Happy trading!
Tom
Stock Market Commentary 09/01/23
By Lawrence G. McMillan
"Stocks have continued to rally ever since the 4330 level was successfully tested a couple of weeks ago. So the larger challenge for the market is whether or not it can overcome the resistance at 4600 -- the late July highs. If so, then all-time highs might soon be in sight. But if not (i.e., if this rally is just an oversold reaction), then a failure of support at 4330 would be a large negative for stocks.
Equity-only put-call ratios have remained bearish during the current rally, since put buying has been fairly heavy all along. These ratios will remain negative in their outlook for stocks until they roll over and begin to trend lower.
Market breadth quickly switched from a deeply oversold level to buy signals and modestly overbought conditions. The previous sell signal was successful, but these oscillators have been subject to extreme whipsaws over the past 10 months or so. The new buy signals are in place as of August 28th, and have been confirmed via the "usual" two-day process.
So, the above indicators -- which more or less measure market internals -- are mixed, but are in a more positive state than they were a couple of weeks ago. The volatility indicators, on the other hand, have generally remained bullish and are continuing to do so. $VIX has dropped sharply over the past week or so and is at relatively low levels again, dropping below 14. That means that the "spike peak" buy signal remains in place, as does the intermediate-term trend of $VIX buy signal. As one can see from the chart in Figure 4, $VIX is once again approaching its annual lows.
In summary, we continue to maintain a "core" bullish position, although its delta is only now beginning to take on more value. We have traded and will continue to trade other confirmed signals around that "core" bullish position."
S&P 500 (SPX), CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21), and Weighted 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21 w) charts updated each Friday.
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/SPX.JPG?v=1693591427448
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21.JPG?v=1693591427448
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21_W.JPG?v=1693591427448
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/VIX.JPG?v=1693591427448
Concerned about the stock market? i suggest you first get out of the fire inferno.
"....SPX appears likely to capture its next upside target zone."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Last update noted that multiple methodologies targeted higher prices in SPX, and the market has trended higher since, with the next upside target zone now just overhead. ES (e-mini S&P futures) actually tagged the target zone on the nonfarm payroll number, then stalled, but presumably that zone will ultimately be reached by the cash market (though very occasionally a target is captured by futures and the market deems that "good enough" with cash never following suit).
On a side note, to my recollection, every single nonfarm payroll of 2023 has ended up being revised downward. In fact, last month's report was the same as this month's (187k) upon release, but now sits at 157k as of its most recent downward revision. June was originally reported at 209k but was ultimately cut in half (to 105k) by its final revision. Are the folks running this show really that bad at this? Or is there a reason the revisions only go one direction (with the initial number being overinflated in the direction that helps the headlines)? I mean, you'd think if it was just random "bad guesses," then they'd guess too low roughly half the time and occasionally have to revise a number higher instead of always "guessing" way too high for the headline. But that doesn't seem to be happening in 2023."
"COMPQ is, for now, comfortably back into the middle of its uptrend channel:"
"In conclusion, SPX appears likely to capture its next upside target zone. Trade safe."
keep it simple
instead of some count dictated by feelings
or inverted yield curve or seasonal this or that
until the market uses value area as resistance
buy the pullbacks.
value area in green (low) and red (HIGH)
the market pulled back yesterday to find buyers and it did
poor low got tested multiple times and held BIG CLUE
Thanks RCKS...Guru I read is thinking this ramp may be running out of steam? No numbers as to where,
".....so the possibility that the prior swing low marked the end of a corrective decline remains on the table."
COMPQ still illustrates bears' conundrum:
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Yesterday saw the rally lunge higher, so no real change from 8/21, when I noted we'd reached the three-wave downside inflection zone, and thus that bears would need at least one more wave down to make things more interesting. So far, bears haven't been able to get that done, so the possibility that the prior swing low marked the end of a corrective decline remains on the table.
COMPQ still illustrates bears' conundrum:"
"I've drawn up an SPX chart noting some levels of interest:"
"In conclusion, there's nothing to indicate a larger trend change yet, so we'll watch to see if that changes or if bulls run with it. Trade safe."
One day later and a sure thing has developed. October will be a bad, very bad month for stocks. How do i know this? The GOP want BLOOD! they will shut down this government assuring a recession or worse happens before the next election. They are on the same death watch as TRUMP. They must work together and their might is mightily indeed!
They will do everything in their power to stop trials, fire prosecutors and make sure the economy is is bad shape. A no brainer.
Ironic that the current government is trying to save us from ourselves at the same time it is being attacked with vehemence. Like a drowning person attacking the lifeguard.
October ONE starts the drop? Can't be more than a week into October before the street realizes this is not a game. I am so sure I will recall my pounding my head against the masses during the start of a pandemic. I suspect we will actually hit and possibly exceed October 1 deadline before the street reacts. REACT IT WILL!
Deep deep drop in October and likely November. How do i know this? How can you not!
As long as the masses can't see the similarity to Germany post WWI and in fact cheered that new paradigm we will rally hard till after the facts are in. Like waiting for deaths during a pandemic to decide to drop hard. We now have a splintered GOP group so concerned they are putting out ads condemning the party. But no one sees this as an ominous sign. Some concede the country is lost and being dismantled but still maintain we are healthy as an economy. As if both can run in opposite directions for long.?
Market riding high exactly when the very survival of the GOP will do everything to stay in power. They will shut down in October. A guarantee! They will do everything to stop prosecution of TRUMP since their very survival depends on it. States already changing laws to allow them total control over the DA. The GOP will cause an economic calamity because it will benefit them and allow for TRUMP and the GOP to regain total power.
Think this is BS? WATCH! October 1 we start the crisis. The GOP will hold out for a LONG TIME making sure we crash or have concessions that give them total power. Trumps troubles are likely to be GONE before the end of this year.
CRAZY TALK? Like the ones I made years ago that were thought to be extreme and nonsense? well I didn't go far enough it seems. So while i was dismissed then as a lunatic NOW that lunacy because reality YOU dismiss reality. funny how it goes.
'A week ago, I opined that the decline had formed "three large waves down," and the market has held that low ever since, which does mean that the most bullish possibility cannot yet be eliminated (the most bullish possibility is that the decline was a correction, and that correction is over). Bears still need at least one more low to turn the decline into a larger impulse down, so the next key downside level has not changed from when I first discussed it on 8/23:"
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"On Friday, after Jerome Powell came out and said something along the lines of "We're going to keep hammering at the credit markets until housing breaks," bears seemed to take an early lead -- but then their decline stalled short of the key levels and reversed higher for the remainder of the session.
A week ago, I opined that the decline had formed "three large waves down," and the market has held that low ever since, which does mean that the most bullish possibility cannot yet be eliminated (the most bullish possibility is that the decline was a correction, and that correction is over). Bears still need at least one more low to turn the decline into a larger impulse down, so the next key downside level has not changed from when I first discussed it on 8/23:"
"COMPQ has also continued to hold its key zone:"
"To the upside, the key zone for bulls remains the previously-discussed trend line:"
"Not much to update beyond that. Trade safe."
RCKS, Thanks for the update...One guru I read thinks we could ramp back up and is looking at the 4500 range..??
Stock Market Commentary 08/25/23
By Lawrence G. McMillan
Last Friday, $SPX traded down to nearly 4330 and has bounced from there. That is the support level that we have been talking about for some time, and it did a good job of holding. So, the big picture is that the $SPX chart is still bullish at this time, as long as that support at 4330 has not been violated. There is further support at 4200, but in my opinion, if the 4330 support level gives way, the bears will be running downhill at that point.
Given the large quantity of oversold conditions that exist or recently existed, the rally off of the 4330 level could be considered merely an oversold rally. Those typically reach the declining 20- day Moving Average (or maybe overshoot it by a small amount) and then fail again. That may be what's happening with the large decline in the market coming right after the positive earnings for NVIDIA (NVDA).
Equity-only put-call ratios remain solidly on sell signals, as they continue to climb. There has been quite a bit of put buying, even on days when the market has rallied. These ratios will remain on sell signals until they roll over and begin to decline.
Breadth has tried to improve from its heavily negative readings of the past few weeks. But even with a couple of days of positive breadth -- one of which was very positive -- the breadth oscillators remain on sell signals. From current levels, it's still going to take at least two more days of positive breadth to generate buy signals here.
While the above "internal" indicators have been quite negative, the same cannot be said for the volatility indicators. Those indicators remain bullish in varying degrees. $VIX tried to rally a little, but really is still mired at a relatively low level.
So, we continue to maintain a low-delta "core" bullish position in line with the fact that $SPX has remained above 4330. We are trading other confirmed signals around that, and will continue to do so."
S&P 500 (SPX), CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21), and Weighted 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21 w) charts updated each Friday.
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/SPX.JPG?v=1693067929897
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21.JPG?v=1693067929897
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21_W.JPG?v=1693067929897
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/VIX.JPG?v=1693067929897
".....we can see that several major markets are implying the potential for big trouble on sustained breakdowns of support. Now it's really just up to bears to make it happen. And I suspect they ultimately will -- but as noted Monday, I do have to respect the potential inflection at the recent lows, which means that, despite my lean here, it's certainly not impossible for bulls to pull out a stick save and we should stay nimble accordingly."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"On Monday, I posted a "keep it simple" chart of SPX (and literally just now realized I uploaded another SPX chart where I was trying to upload NYA -- ah well, irrelevant) and discussed an option for SPX to rally back up to test a confluence that had caught my eye. It did test that confluence, and was then strongly rejected:"
"COMPQ can also run into trouble if it sustains a breakdown below support and its recent low:"
"In conclusion, we can see that several major markets are implying the potential for big trouble on sustained breakdowns of support. Now it's really just up to bears to make it happen. And I suspect they ultimately will -- but as noted Monday, I do have to respect the potential inflection at the recent lows, which means that, despite my lean here, it's certainly not impossible for bulls to pull out a stick save and we should stay nimble accordingly. Trade safe."
This is Friday and this is Wednesday's Pretzel
"We did get some upside follow through, but then Tuesday retraced much of it."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Monday's update suggested that the market had reached an inflection zone, which meant a larger bounce was possible. We did get some upside follow through, but then Tuesday retraced much of it. We can see SPX's low came at a very old trend line, so that's going to be the next zone bears need:"
"We discussed COMPQ's trend line on Monday, and while it's not as old, the implications are similar:"
"Finally, SPX's "keep it simple" chart below. SPX made it back into the red channel, but it's entirely possible that completed a three-wave rally, so bulls will need to clear Monday's high:"
"In conclusion, there are enough waves up from Friday's low to mark a complete corrective rally if the market wants, which means the upside level is fairly clear. On the downside, there are multiple trend lines crossing Friday's low, so that level is even more significant (though, if it fails, always watch out for whipsaws and sudden snap-backs on the first breakdown, before the "real" move begins). Trade safe."
Pretzel :
(1) Pretzel presents both a Bull and Bear case.
(2) Pretzel gives both Triggers and Targets
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