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Today is Friday and this is Pretzel's Monday offering....
".....we're into an inflection zone down toward the SPX 4300 (+/-) zone, so we'll see how the market reacts here."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"There are a million ways to count the decline from this year's high, but in my opinion, it's now three large waves down (recall that three large waves down means two smaller impulsive waves connected by a corrective wave) -- the question is whether those three waves are complete yet (and it's terribly unclear; they could be, or not. Neither would surprise me here.). If they are, then a larger bounce would be in the cards now (see chart below).
The next question will be whether those three waves can go on to form a still-larger impulse down, which would in turn more strongly suggest an intermediate decline. But let's not get too far ahead of things yet, as "the evil of the day" is sufficient to wrestle with for now. Accordingly, I've tried to create something of an "all in one" chart with a focus on clarity for SPX:"
"An interesting companion to that chart would be NYA. In the event NYA wanted to back test its broken red trend line, we can see how that would align nicely with a test of the confluence on the SPX chart above. Of course, that's not a "guarantee" that the market will go that route, just something that would display some consistency across markets if it did:"
"Finally, COMPQ dipped below support, but bulls can still salvage things if they act quickly:"
"In conclusion, we're into an inflection zone down toward the SPX 4300 (+/-) zone, so we'll see how the market reacts here. Again, in the event bulls can't pull things together soon, then things can get slippery to the downside. Trade safe."
He who doesn't care why ...
The average participants in the stock market as a whole are not very well educated about the stock market but it's a game they want to play as they dream of winning.
So they spin the roulette wheel when it feels right to them, which is typically when the market takes a little dip and they believe that playing the game is cheaper.
It is cheaper, but since they don't know how to play well they have a 50:50 chance of winning. But losing the gamble takes money away from them, so their next gamble has less money to play with so it's harder for them to break even.
Wash, rinse, repeat, they eventually go home broke, but they tell their kids they had a great time.
the market is in a downtrend
who knows why or cares why
the info you are posting is already baked in the cake
the market looks forward
The problem with statistics,
such as when the (stock) market does this then it usually does that ....
is that the current situation is that SPX has an inverted yield curve (the largest one I've ever seen) and that is not very common but when it does exist the market statistically has a much larger correction as money flows into short term bonds instead of into stocks.
tim ord stat
when a market is down 4 days in a row
there is 73 pct chance it will make a new low in a week or so.
markets are extremely devious
get everyone to be a bull and trap em
https://schrts.co/uxgjIEcB
Are You Ready for a Huge Rally?
AUGUST 18, 2023 AT 10:25 AM
https://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2023/08/are-you-ready-for-a-huge-rally-708.html
"It was one month ago that I discussed the serious (short-term) warning signs that the stock market faced. I summed it up pretty well on a Your Daily Five recording that aired on July 19th. Calling weakness after it hits is easy, but discussing objectively the warning signs BEFORE the market drops is where our value at EarningsBeats.com begins. If you didn't get a chance to see this Your Daily Five video, here it is:"
ew works much better in a corrective down move
the fed has paused raising interest rates
but has been withdrawing funds
this is causing the pullback
i assume we are doing a double zigzag down
the fed can change policy at any time though
World financial markets are sold so the fed is not concerned about a market correction
"......I have no issue with admitting my lean is early (it was actually way early, but I didn't feel it was prudent to discuss yet), so the market could surprise and change its appearance to something more bullish, but so far, everything continues to align for bears."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"It's time for me to bite the bullet here. At least since August 4, I've been wanting to throw caution to the wind and proclaim the rally over, but are you kidding me? Have you seen this market for the past 6 months? No one in their right mind would ever declare the rally over, ever. So I'm not going to do that just yet, but I will say I've been leaning that way for two weeks, and so far, the market is giving more and more reason to continue leaning that way.
Let's look at some charts.
First up, INDU captured both its downside targets:"
"Turns out this VLT SPX trend line was a good one:"
"Next, NYA is close to overlap:"
"Here's one for the bulls: COMPQ support just below."
"And one for the bears:"
"In conclusion, I have no issue with admitting my lean is early (it was actually way early, but I didn't feel it was prudent to discuss yet), so the market could surprise and change its appearance to something more bullish, but so far, everything continues to align for bears. Trade safe."
RCKS. Thanks for the charts etc,,,My guru thinks we will have a strong rebound possibly lasting "multi weeks",,,But he said we will need to recapture some strong REZ and he actually like 4404 Futs as a possible breakout point..?? FWIW
Watch out for lightening...
"...bears have their place at the table all set, now they're just waiting to see if the waiter brings the steak (which in this case, would be a sustained breakdown at SPX support)."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"INDU broke below its key zone from last update, which implies either a snap-back rally fairly directly (which would likely revisit current levels afterwards) or an immediate follow-through decline. Immediate and meaningful bull options seem less likely, so this break seems to favor the bears for the near-term... and possibly much longer, as we'll see.
Let's take a look at SPX first to understand why:"
"As we've known for a while, SPX hit a major long-term resistance line, and has so far been rejected. While rejections at resistance (or bounces at support) aren't necessarily the end of the world, this is, again, about the best bears can hope for at this stage. And combined with the potential for three complete rally waves (as shown above), it's definitely worth sitting up and taking notice."
COMPQ next:
Next, NYA:
And finally, BKX:
In conclusion, bears have their place at the table all set, now they're just waiting to see if the waiter brings the steak (which in this case, would be a sustained breakdown at SPX support). Trade safe.
tim ord
markets need fear and too many puts
to bottom
trin needs to zoom indicating fear
and put call needs to be high too
trin
https://schrts.co/xKukqpAi
put call
https://schrts.co/gzUsGYsW
wonder if fed notes zoom down does the trick
".....we have a fairly clear zone to watch in INDU, and bull hopes are better served by staying above that zone, while bear hopes are best severed below it."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"First, I'd intended a couple more charts, but Stockcharts did that thing where it lets me write a bunch of stuff on the chart and then just deletes it, after which it displays a .gif of Kamala Harris laughing hysterically. So I ran out of time and we'll have to settle for three charts.
We'll start with oil. I'd called the bottom at 64.36, but that turned out to be a few pennies early, though the larger count shown then appears to have been correct, and I haven't moved anything (included the "2?" which I should have moved but forgot on my second attempt to get Stockcharts to accept my edits):"
"For our near-term proxy, we'll use INDU again (SPX would be expected to track):"
"Finally, SPX has remained stalled at the very long-term trend line, which may prove to be quite significant as time goes by:"
"In conclusion, we have a fairly clear zone to watch in INDU, and bull hopes are better served by staying above that zone, while bear hopes are best severed below it. Trade safe."
Stock Market Commentary 08/11/23
By Lawrence G. McMillan
"The $SPX Index has started a downtrend, from the recent highs just above 4600. This decline began with overbought conditions providing headwinds and then accelerated when Fitch downgraded the U.S. debt rating. That 4600 area represents resistance, and the next support area is at 4440 which would close several gaps on the $SPX chart. A pullback to that level is taking place now. Below there, support at 4330 is crucial. If that is violated, in my opinion, it would be quite bearish for stocks, even though there is another support level at 4200.
Equity-only put-call ratios remain solidly on sell signals. They have begun to rise even more rapidly now, and it looks like they won't be falling back to a new 2023 low anytime soon. This means that they will remain on sell signals as long as they are rising.
Breadth has been relatively poor, and the breadth oscillators remain on the sell signals that were generated on August 2nd. This is about the least whipsaw we've seen from the breadth oscillators in quite some time, so that seems to be a good thing. The oscillators are modestly in negative territory, but are not oversold yet.
$VIX has risen slightly while $SPX has sold off over the last week or so. $VIX is in "spiking" mode, as of August 4th. Stocks can fall while $VIX is in "spiking" mode, but eventually a "spike peak" buy signal will occur. That buy signal has not occurred yet.
So, we are maintaining a "core" bullish position (albeit with a small delta now that the market has pulled back), as long as $SPX remains above 4330. We are, however, trading other signals around that core position when those signals are confirmed."
S&P 500 (SPX), CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21), and Weighted 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21 w) charts updated each Friday.
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/SPX.JPG?v=1691788166946
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21.JPG?v=1691788166946
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21_W.JPG?v=1691788166946
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/VIX.JPG?v=1691788166946
"....the market has remained disheartened by resistance -- but the big question on everyone's mind is whether we have an impulsive decline yet."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Last update predicted:
While it's always possible bulls will surge again, the fact that multiple markets are still below resistance heading into an important data point (one which could well show inflation rising again) leads me to suspect bears will manage to pull out the win over the near-term and create at least "another" 3/C down ("or 3/C" on the first INDU chart).
Headline CPI inflation is not showing as rising again (yet), but producer prices showed their largest increase since January -- and, either way, bears did pull out the win due to overhead resistance, and INDU indeed seems to have gotten "another" 3/C down exactly as shown in the last update. The real question for INDU at this point is whether it feels like it needs ANOTHER up/down sequence or not:"
"SPX has continued reacting to very long-term resistance:"
"BKX has continued reacting to the resistance zone I highlighted a month ago:"
"NYA has continued reacting to its resistance zone:"
"And finally, COMPQ is in the process of trying to whipsaw its last breakout:"
"In conclusion, the market has remained disheartened by resistance -- but the big question on everyone's mind is whether we have an impulsive decline yet. By all rights, the decline does appear to be impulsive in both NYA and SPX. There's some lingering possibility that the high was a B-wave, but I'm not leaning that way and if bears can keep pushing a bit lower, that option should be erased. Presuming the decline is not a b-wave, then the implication is that if there's another bounce from here, there should also be another leg down. The more bearish option would be to continue lower directly, without another large bounce. Trade safe."
"While it's always possible bulls will surge again, the fact that multiple markets are still below resistance heading into an important data point (one which could well show inflation rising again) leads me to suspect bears will manage to pull out the win over the near-term......."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Tomorrow is CPI, which the market is watching with interest (no pun intended) for obvious reasons, so let's keep things simple today.
First off, the near-term options, illustrated via INDU (other markets should roughly track this, but INDU was the clearest for purposes of conveying information to readers):"
"Bigger picture, NYA remains below key resistance:"
"And even bigger picture, SPX remains below key resistance:"
"While it's always possible bulls will surge again, the fact that multiple markets are still below resistance heading into an important data point (one which could well show inflation rising again) leads me to suspect bears will manage to pull out the win over the near-term and create at least "another" 3/C down ("or 3/C" on the first INDU chart). Trade safe."
TEXT BOOK month move. Great July, slip/slide August. Absolutely NOTHING to indicate any danger zone. Thurs/Fri the all important INFLATION data. I expect it to stay tame simply because CHINA is in a deflation spiral.
Every single indicator is still in a tight range bound scenario. Bonds, Dollar, Oil.
Let me put it to you this way. Earnings were slightly better than expectations and we went for a 7 percent expected DROP to only 5! WOW! Lets talk NEXT quarter.
It is expected to be FLAT. Yup no earnings gain and if they beat by 1 to 2 percentages the street will cheer!
ONLY with projections made in October will we see any significant moves. I see a weak August, strong Sept/Oct. Weak November and attempt to catch the highs in December.
Now looks like January is the best case scenario for a dramatic drop.
So there is only 2 things to watch for: Inflation data and earnings. Both have the odds stacked in the BULLS favor for now.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All this is happening while it looks like the clock will run out for jail time for trump before election day. The ability to shrug off the most damaging historically significant event since the Civil War by totally ignore the obvious. A trump win will completely dissolve this republic and change forever our democracy. How anyone can't see this is like dismissing 4 indictments based on the premise that your own eye, ears, common sense and ability to reason above the age of 5 has been taken from you. The political arena is as two sided as if trump never got indicted and events on TV never took place.
My point! if we can cheer on trump today we have lost all sense of right and wrong but more importantly lost out ability to stop running when a cliff is in front of you. We will fall over on all levels.
2024 we might survive intact. 2025 will usher in Trump/GOP takeover of the nation, war and martial law to prevent Georgia from jailing trump. This is so freaking obvious but hey i pointed out what already transpired and at the time was called a kook. Still am by those that can't see reality for what it is.
Wheels go 'round and 'round ...
and where she stops nobody knows.
Took note of that a few weeks back as the market is trying to figure out where to go. Decided I didn't want to play the game so I went to all-cash.
That's not the only reason though. I'm at that special time (that I hate) when I have to renew my drivers license and therefore have to take a written driving test. So I need to focus all my attention on that upcoming test I have to take ... meaning I have to boot stock trading thoughts out of my head until that new drivers license test receives a passing grade.
Watching the Wheels Go 'Round and 'Round
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"In the last update, I wrote:
Here's what we have so far:
The market has indeed encountered resistance at the resistance lines we've been watching.
This is about the best bears could have hoped for at this point, but
So far, the decline is not yet impulsive.
In other words, it's everything bears could want at this stage, but thus far is not enough to definitively signal they have the ball, so "just a near-term correction" is still possible. I can't sum it up much better than that.
And this is still where we are today. I do want to add, however, that the significance here probably can't be overstated: Multiple markets tagged resistance, ranging from intermediate to very-long-term, in concert, and were rejected. Bears still have their work cut out for them, but so do bulls. If bulls cannot claim those resistance zones, then lots of people could get caught standing around gawking at "the most obvious top in the world." So we should stay on our toes here."
"NYA's action was interesting on Friday:"
"And COMPQ is still testing its old trend line. "
"In conclusion, no change so far: Bears have hope on this reaction to resistance, but no confirmation of anything else just yet. Trade safe."
RCKS, Thanks for the update...Could just be a relief bounce here ???
Covid ... that's a short list.
I think you should add Putin (and everything he has caused) to that list then apply a little thermodynamics with a little understanding of what entropy is and how that mix has put the world at a higher, relatively uncomfortable, energy state which one can measure by watching the state of the stock market along with its higher volatility and change of phase as measured by its rather huge inverted yield curve -- the biggest one I've ever seen!
Well ... I'm pretty sure.
So, with all that in mind, I took all my money out of the stock market about three weeks ago., and that has proven to be a very good choice so far.
Stock Market Commentary 08/04/23
By Lawrence G. McMillan
"It took the catalyst of Fitch downgrading the debt rating of the US from AAA to AA+ in order to generate some heavy selling in stocks. So far, most of the damage has been limited to just one day, but that was enough to confirm sell signals from several overbought areas.
$SPX itself now has resistance near 4600, which is the high of the most recent rally. The first support area af 4528 was broken, but there are others that should come into play: 4440 is the area at which all of the recent gaps on the $SPX chart would be filled (red circled area in Figure 1). Then 4330 and 4200 are major support areas below that. Their importance derives from the fact that it took some time to build both of those support levels. A move below 4330 would be a negative for the $SPX chart and would cause us to relinquish our "core" bullish position. Otherwise, we are going to retain it for now.
Equity-only put-call ratios are rolling over to sell signals. The standard ratio (Figure 2) has visibly turned upward, and that sell signal is solidly in place. The weighted ratio (Figure 3) is less clear. The ratio jumped higher for one day day of the US debt downgrade but that's about it, which is why there is a "?" on the sell signal marked on the chart.
Breadth had started to slip before the Fitch downgrade and then worsened after that. Both breadth oscillators have now rolled over to sell signals, and those have been confirmed for two consecutive days.
$VIX has moved slightly higher in the wake of the Fitch downgrade and the resulting selling of stocks, but not even enough to enter "spiking" mode. It did probe up above 17 briefly on Thursday, but then closed back down below 16. In other words, the reaction of $VIX has been muted. The trend of $VIX buy signal thus remains in place.
So, we are retaining our "core" bullish position. We have rolled in-the-money calls up to higher strikes all along with this rally, so our exposure is somewhat limited. We are taking positions in line with some of the new sell signals, and each system has its own stop out."
"S&P 500 (SPX), CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21), and Weighted 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21 w) charts updated each Friday."
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/SPX.JPG?v=1691265695711
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21.JPG?v=1691265695711
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21_W.JPG?v=1691265695711
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/VIX.JPG?v=1691265695711
JLS
All I will say is things don't add up as they have in the past.
My suspicion is that the Covid unraveling has had a distinct influence on how the Market has and is performing given the Inverted Yield Curve
Should have checked how that posted...
The link got some junk stuck to it because in my rush I posted it wrong.
Oh well ... edit it if you're interested.
That said ...
Tomorrow's futures are all in the red at this time of day.
And, as I already pointed out, the yield curve is inverted, more so than I've seen in years AND short term bonds are paying some pretty high rates AND those rates are guaranteed.
That said, the current price is at a significant support level, so what happens now depends on the next throw (or two or three) of the dice. I'm not a gambler so I'm going to be staying out of stocks. For what it's worth, the inversion started in August of last year, so it's had almost a full year to fatten up.
With short term bonds (even the 3-month) paying as much as they currently are, those bonds are going to suck up a lot of money that may have been destined for stocks.
"https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php"
Bears have the ball in their court..........
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
Here's what we have so far:
The market has indeed encountered resistance at the resistance lines we've been watching.
This is about the best bears could have hoped for at this point, but
So far, the decline is not yet impulsive.
In other words, it's everything bears could want at this stage, but thus far is not enough to definitively signal they have the ball, so "just a near-term correction" is still possible. I can't sum it up much better than that."
"Finally, I did want to revisit the near-term chart from earlier this week, since SPX never rallied high enough to bring the speculative option into the fore:"
"In conclusion, as I said at the beginning, I can't sum it up much better than I did there, so I won't repeat myself here. Trade safe."
market is not trading on what you think
3 day rule
markets selling usually gets 3 days down then some kind of bounce
the spy had no sellers yesterday. so the market ran out of sellers
I DONT CARE Y
market is now into overhead supply and should return to 9 14 ma and fail there
then we see what the bears have
https://schrts.co/ANgrZrTz
Thanks RCKS..I think he is pretty much right on the Gov't thing...Maybe the market will get realistic too...Thanks for the info
Fitch Downgrade, Bears.... "4527 SPX is the first level bears need to claim and hold"
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"So the big news to hit since last update is, of course, the downgrade of the USA's credit rating, only the second time in history this has occurred (the first was in 2011). The downgrade comes from Fitch, and my favorite snip from their report is this:
In Fitch’s view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years
Yeah, no kidding. Government has gotten so bad that I went from having a rule to never bring up anything political (which I succeeded in doing for years) to feeling forced to mention certain issues (usually obliquely, but occasionally directly) in these updates on and off for the past 4 years or so. Of course, it doesn't help that our country is now more polarized than ever and therefore EVERYTHING is perceived as political, even things that shouldn't be (in my view, issues such as free speech and creeping totalitarianism are not "political" issues, they are human rights issues, and thus we'd do better to stop viewing them through the lens of our political affiliations and instead fight for/against them with the same vigor on whichever side of the aisle we find them. A politician who's trying to sell us totalitarian policies is no longer on "our" side, even if they still claim to be.).
Fitch also underscored the rising general government deficit, which Fitch expects will rise from 3.7% in 2022 to 6.3% of gross domestic product in 2023.
With a heavy heart, Fitch ultimately decided to downgrade the USA from AAA credit to a more appropriate rating of D. I'm kidding of course. They generously downgraded us to AA+.
While the market reaction to the downgrade in 2011 was short-lived, this still does come at an interesting time.
SPX, so far, still remains below its next relevant long-term trend line:"
"NYA remains below its intermediate line:"
"BKX has tagged the "90ish" target zone several times, but has so far been unable to clear it:"
"And COMPQ is still lingering near its relevant long-term trend line:"
"In conclusion, if the market was looking for a catalyst to react to these resistance lines, then maybe the credit downgrade will provide one. Or if it was looking for a "gotcha" rally (i.e.- negative news generates a positive market reaction), then the same thing applies. On the downside, 4527 SPX is the first level bears need to claim and hold, on the upside, the trend lines serve the same function. Trade safe."
It's all about ...
the Dynamic Yield Curve, stupid!
Very sorry, I just couldn't resist.
For many investors, 2023 might be the first time to consider bonds in their adult lives.
That’s the takeaway from an insight published recently by Goldman Sachs, which forecasts that 2023 bond yields will exceed stock dividends. This, the paper says, hasn’t happened since the height of the Great Recession in 2008.
Per the report:
"While the stock market might get more press, the U.S. stock market total capitalization is actually a bit smaller than the bond market, though neither is small. The stock market has just over $30 trillion in total market capitalization, meaning the value of all outstanding shares, while the total amount of debt owed through bonds is more than $40 trillion.
Why does that matter?
Because it’s all about the inverted yield curve, stupid!
A yield curve is a line that plots yields, or interest rates, of bonds that have equal credit quality but differing maturity dates. The slope of the yield curve can predict future interest rate changes and economic activity.
There are three main yield curve shapes: normal upward-sloping curve, inverted downward-sloping curve, and flat.
Normal curves point to economic expansion, and downward-sloping curves point to economic recession.
Why is that so important?
A flat yield curve reflects similar yields across all maturities, implying an uncertain economic situation. A few intermediate (bond) maturities may have slightly higher yields, which causes a slight hump to appear along the flat curve. These humps are usually for mid-term maturities, six months to two years.
The curve shows little difference in yield to maturity among shorter and longer-term bonds. A two-year bond may offer a yield of 6%, a five-year bond of 6.1%, a 10-year bond of 6%, and a 20-year bond of 6.05%. In times of high uncertainty, investors demand similar yields across all maturities.
Why Does the Yield-Curve Slope Predict Recessions?
Many studies document the predictive power of the slope of the Treasury yield curve for forecasting recessions. This work is motivated, for example, by the empirical evidence which shows the term-structure slope, measured by the spread between the yields on ten-year and two-year U.S. Treasury securities, and shading that denotes U.S. recessions (dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research). Note that the yield-curve slope becomes negative before each economic recession since the 1970s. That is, an “inversion” of the yield curve, in which short-maturity interest rates exceed long-maturity rates, is typically associated with a recession in the near future.
So here's the largest yield curve inversion I've seen in my many trading years (so I decided to take a trading break for a while).
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php
Cumulative Volume Breadth (CVB) Buy Signal
By Lawrence G. McMillan
"We have been talking about the possibility of this buy signal occurring, and now it has. That is, the running total of advancing volume minus declining volume, daily (in “stocks only” terms), has reached a new all-time high – exceeding that of December 2021. When CVB reaches a new all-time high, $SPX follows."
https://mcusercontent.com/21d4aaff645b54db21f6be1fc/images/fe5c5103-6082-0ee2-97d2-d59448fa9029.png">https://mcusercontent.com/21d4aaff645b54db21f6be1fc/images/fe5c5103-6082-0ee2-97d2-d59448fa9029.png" />
"There is quite a bit of room between the current $SPX price and its all-time high at 4808, so this could be a strong buy signal. A couple of caveats, though: 1) not every system works every time, and 2) the last time we got one of these buy signals after a long hiatus was June 2020 ($SPX eventually advanced 198 points to a new all-time high), but right after the signal was confirmed, $SPX fell almost 200 points before reversing and eventually gaining the new high. The market was more volatile back then – still rather close to the pandemic-induced volatility – but even so, be aware that this is not necessarily a one-way signal for $SPX to immediately race to a new all-time high..."
Thanks RCKS...But sure doesn't look like any reason to believe either dotted red line,?? But I have no idea where we are headed...Except I do have a down signal on the 4 hour chart..
Thank you for chart and info.
"...the ending diagonal might need two more slight new highs...."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"There's one near-term chart to Friday's comprehensive update -- the near-term SPX chart:"
"On the chart above, the ending diagonal might need two more slight new highs, while the complex flat could reverse lower directly (though would ultimately revisit these highs after visiting the 4520s or below).
Given long-term overhead resistance (chart below), the above seems like a reasonable near-term possibility, which would also accomplish the goal of being confusing to many participants."
"NYA is also facing intermediate overhead resistance:"
"Not much to say beyond that. Trade safe."
https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/consumer-pulse/state-of-the-us-consumer.html
Consumer doing just fine! Yup even with the jump in rates. Yup they have their houses with values far exceeding even wall streets spectacular run. Housing and stocks, a one two punch. I love it when reality is so one sided bias forces us to look the other way. Even bond yields can't compete.
So the data comes in as near perfect as can be expected with higher rates not seen in many years. Consumer is recharged and recharging here. What will derail this? I suspect an external event caused from more greed and complacency. I saw JULY as a great run and so it did.
With Chin seemingly stuck with very weak external demand and struggling internally there should not be anh help with inflation by them. not yet anyway.
ENJOY THE SHOW! To infinity and Beyond!
Wonder if that is good...??
monday is first day of month
so a lot of rebalancing and nervous short term traders
who will react to any news
TRIN hit fear levels friday giving the bulls juice
so i expect an inside day and trin should pullback and get minor selling
https://schrts.co/sUvNbiYV
Stock Market Commentary 07/28/23
By Lawrence G. McMillan
"For the most part, stocks have remained in an extremely bullish mode over the past week. The one "hiccup" was when heavy selling hit the market the day after the FOMC announcement, ostensibly due to some financial news out of Japan. That created an 80-point range day in $SPX, which is one of the larger ones in recent months. Even so, stocks seem to be bouncing back quickly.
The Thursday peak was at 4607, so that is temporary resistance. Stronger resistance exists at 4650 a number that seemed to be a long ways away just a short time ago, but now is within easy striking distance. There is support at 4530, 4440, 4385, 4330, and 4200. The two major support lines (blue horizontal lines on the chart in Figure 1) are at 4330 and 4200. Since SPX has advanced so far, I would consider it very negative if 4330 were violated.
Equity-only put-call ratios are still clinging to buy signals, but are extremely overbought. Sell signals are probably not far off in the future. The computer analysis programs are "saying" that the weighted is currently on a sell signal, but the standard is not quite there yet. Regardless, I would want to visibly see these ratios begin to rise before we acted on them. So, for now, we are continuing to categorize these ratios as being on buy signals, but deeply overbought.
Breadth has generally been strong since July 7th until yesterday, that is. Even though breadth was very bad yesterday, the breadth oscillators are still on buy signals for now. Another day of negative breadth would roll them over to sell signals. Which would then lead to the two-day confirmations and potential whipsaws that we have seen from the breadth oscillators for most of this year.
$VIX has remained subdued, in the 13-14 range. As long as that is the case, stocks can continue to rise, for the trend of $VIX buy signal will remain in effect. Problems would arise if $VIX suddenly jumps higher over a short period time. But even when stocks sold off sharply yesterday, $VIX did not rise much.
In summary, we continue to maintain a "core" bullish position given the positive nature of the $SPX chart. We are rolling in-the- money options up to higher strikes and raising trailing stops, but are remaining long. We will, however, trade other confirmed signals around this "core" position."
Weekly Charts
S&P 500 (SPX), CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21), and Weighted 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21 w) charts updated each Friday.
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/SPX.JPG?v=1690656481340
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21.JPG?v=1690656481340
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21_W.JPG?v=1690656481340
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/VIX.JPG?v=1690656481340
Hi Glen
Thanks for Avi's article.
Interestingly he has the same views as Pretzel and Pokersam in that he sees the Market close to entering into a Multi-Year Bear Market, A Bear Mkt that would last from 11 to 21 years in his view.
They all see something similar on the Near Horizon. Their reasons are tied to the Market completing a long 5 wave structure and needing to correct the whole thing.
I can not see that far I guess.
RCKS,
Here is a very long interview with Avi..I do not see any numbers for when and where for the SPX...But hope you are able to open it..
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4620617-avi-gilburt-warns-of-potential-banking-crisis-charts-indicate-major-disruptions
old methods
like complex EW do not work well in this type of market
geostorm got eveyone beariish and took out all the sellers
shane s message yesterday
G1 Geomagnetic storm conditions are intensifying within the timeframe of 11:00-15:00 ET. A G1 storm is expected to arrive after 14:00 ET and persist until the market close. As a precautionary measure, it's essential to be watchful for a potential hard reversal in the equity markets.
market profile
we closed with an excess low EOD. this meant the down auction had ended successfully
and direction was up
My big Guru is shaking his head. He cannot believe we are this high on SPX...He is looking at gap fills starting soon and at least move down to 4100..I have no clue where we are headed...Market just seems to keep moving up every day for no reason I can understand.
SPX, NYA, COMPQ, BKX, Oil: Oil's Well That Ends Well
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"On Wednesday, the Fed raised rates another quarter point, giving us the highest interest rates in 22 years, but leading pundits to speculate that the Fed is done raising rates and will pause in September. The market responded to the announcement like an electrocuted giraffe, lunging lower, then higher, then lower again on Thursday.
Powell, on the other hand, was reluctant to commit one way or the other, preferring to wait for the next two months of data. And there's at least a chance that Powell might be onto something. It's worth noting that oil was stuck in a potential basing pattern for the last couple months, at the lowest levels it's seen in the past year and a half:"
"NYA encountered resistance yesterday at the black trend line, which is bulls' next obvious hurdle:"
"BKX reached its "90ish" target, now we'll see if it can break through or not:"
"Still watching to see how COMPQ reacts to this back-test:"
"And still watching to see how SPX reacts to this 36-year-old overhead trend line:"
"That's about all I've got for today. Trade safe."
geo storm and reaction to fed day
has everyone saying top in for sure
where is the continuation selling
the markets job to convince traders to the wrong thing at the wrong time
fed policy changes
fed is now buying the dollar
and selling the spy. the geo storm created the perfect storm
Fed internals began rallying spx 4287.
so shane expects selling to go there
dollar
https://schrts.co/KypqwpAz
thurday tim ord minute 12
trin saying market warning
he sold friday
trin high you must buy, trin low you must go
late september bottom
74 pct of time market up for year.
tim sees spx 4200
11:19 ET
Geomagnetic storm conditions are intensifying within the timeframe of 11:00-15:00 ET. A G1 storm is expected to arrive after 14:00 ET and persist until the market close. As a precautionary measure, it's essential to be watchful for a potential hard reversal in the equity markets.
Looks like he has us back to the old high or higher...Wow..What a ramp.
"....it's just a matter of waiting for the Fed, though Lord only knows WHY we have to play this stupid waiting game every Fed day...."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Today is the much-anticipated Fed Day, and many pundits have wondered whether Jerome Powell will "stay the course" and wear either his blue or purple tie, or whether he'll signal a shift in stance by wearing something new. Since we covered all that in great detail on Monday (???), there's not much to add in that regard, however, I did add the official "bear version" of the current rally to the SPX chart:"
"COMPQ is now attempting its first back-test from above, which is worth keeping an eye on:"
"Beyond that, it's just a matter of waiting for the Fed, though Lord only knows WHY we have to play this stupid waiting game every Fed day, no matter what the announcement, but that's the way things work now. Trade safe."
Jerry
Thanks.
If as you suggest, something from the Fed will trigger a Market turn this week. I will pay more attention as that develops.
"....NYA managed to put the kibosh on the most immediately bearish count, but it's not like that's a complete "all clear" for bulls. While the most "straightforward" interpretation of things is probably that the market is in a 3/C up (as I've said previously), that's not the same as saying 3/C is a slam dunk, so we'll see if the Fed causes any ripples."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"We're coming up fast on the Fed meeting (July 25-26, casual dress okay, BYOB), so you might think there's nothing to say about this market in the meantime, and you'd be half right. But there is one interesting chart to take a gander at nonetheless:"
"BKX has reached a much smaller trend line, but it's also worth a gander (though not a goose):"
"In conclusion, NYA managed to put the kibosh on the most immediately bearish count, but it's not like that's a complete "all clear" for bulls. While the most "straightforward" interpretation of things is probably that the market is in a 3/C up (as I've said previously), that's not the same as saying 3/C is a slam dunk, so we'll see if the Fed causes any ripples. Trade safe."
Pretzel :
(1) Pretzel presents both a Bull and Bear case.
(2) Pretzel gives both Triggers and Targets
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