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its a lot more complicated than that
shane goes thru each fed transaction and produces a fed juice chart.
its a new world but follow the FED still does apply
I believe the Treasury was conteracting the QT from the Fed, there was some FED QT going on, but the Treasury was using its general fund to buy the sold fed stuff.
absolutely
its amazing how the past does not repeat.
That said different forms of TA must confirm and they do
The FED really did not do the QT they said would do.
If they had we would be past the lows.
Shane Smoleny studies all daily the fed activity.
The banking crisis and Brit pension fund fall should have tanked the market big time
it did not as the fed came in and injected money all over the place.
Inflation is real bad yet the market holds up.
Been studying Shane for months. The fed has so many tools to do what ever they want.
Fed can create tools out of thin air and they do
Now if the fed goes back to QT or a catastrophe event happens the fed is limited
in their ability to fix it
snoot
You are speaking of Tom Bowley I believe and I'm sure he is aware that 20% has failures.
He is more Bullish here than I am. I post his stuff because it balances in some manner, Pretzel's Bearishness.
From my end I can see both sides which is what makes a market.
I do think we may surprise to the upside whether its a path like you suggest or something different
If IWM holds this breakout we may go a good deal higher in the near term
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/04/5e1a6ccd-77c3-44af-9789-0a97e6525002.jpg
JXYZ, So if I understand you, you're saying it's different this time?
when
shane s., tim ord and stan harley all say the bear market ended on the Brits QT ending
and then the charts confirmed. not gonna doubt those guys
every old schol guy (living in the past) wants to make it complex
its 1970, inverted yield curve. ETC
if you noticed every time the bears catch a bid for a day or 2
the fed comes in and the market explodes. This is the FED injecting QE
do not fight the fed especially when they are doing QE
Hi RCKS,
Last August that "A 20% advance represents a new bull market." went around and even AJ got suckered into it. I'm wondering if you followed Tom's commentary last August or if he didn't see the 20% gain of the August high and this is all new to Tom? In any case it didn't work last August and expecting the same results over again has some people wondering if Tom realizes the 20% rule has failures?
"Friday's move has finally put bears into a "do or die" with blue 2, given the proximity to 4326."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"After a big day on Friday, we finally have a market move worth discussing. Let's start with NYA before SPX:"
"Next, let me reprint something from a couple weeks ago, because it remains relevant:
This lag suggests two diametrically opposed possibilities: Either SPX only has a little more upside, and the rest of the market will drag it back down -- or SPX is headed toward at least Red 2 and that will drag the rest of the market up. NYA may become particularly germane here -- IF it can break above the red c/3 high, as it would then need to go on to form 5 waves from the 15055 low. Right now, because of the divergences across markets, it's a bit early to determine how significant SPX's breakout may or may not be, so how these markets collectively behave during the upcoming sessions will be important toward drawing firmer conclusions one way or the other about the larger time frames."
"Finally, the big picture chart again, to put it all into perspective: Above 4326 and Blue 2 would finally be off the table, leaving Red 2 as the main bear option:"
"In conclusion, Friday's move has finally put bears into a "do or die" with blue 2, given the proximity to 4326. The second chart already hints at Red 2 as a distinct possibility, but let's see if bears have anything up their sleeves at horizontal resistance. Trade safe"
Recent Manipulation in Small Caps Led To Friday's Big Breakout
Tom Bowley | June 04, 2023 at 12:48 PM
"I wasn't expecting a huge 4% move in small caps on Friday, but I was looking for this group to start flexing its muscles. I've been telling our EarningsBeats.com members that small caps were poised for a big move to the upside. We've seen the kind of "value to growth" rotation in small caps that we saw during last summer's massive large cap rotation from value to growth. I discussed in length how the big Wall Street firms were manipulating retail traders. While the overwhelming major of folks expected the cyclical bear market to continue, the story the charts were telling was much, much different. We saw the result. From the ultimate 2022 bear market low on each index, here are how our key indices have performed since that time:
Dow Jones: +17.80%
S&P 500: +22.65%
NASDAQ: +31.24%
NASDAQ 100: +39.33%
S&P 400 Mid Cap: +14.62%
S&P 600 Small Cap: +11.70%
A 20% advance represents a new bull market. The NASDAQ 100, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 have now exceeded that threshold. Fortunately, we at EarningsBeats.com didn't need to see the advance to turn bullish. We saw it coming and it's just gotten started. But shhhhhh, please don't tell the bears. Skepticism is what drives bull markets, so let's keep it our little secret.
Perspective is Critical
It simply amazes me how many analysts will talk about the narrow leadership found in the mega cap leaders in technology and communication services in 2023, but fail to mention how much many of these stocks suffered during the 2022 cyclical bear market. Let's take NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) as an example. NVDA was 346 in November 2021, when tech stocks began rolling over. It didn't manage to find a bottom until October 2022, when it reached 108!!!! That's a loss of 69% in just under a year. Shouldn't that be given some consideration, when we discuss its massive 2023 advance? Once all the inflation hype deflated, a mass move back towards the big growth names was inevitable. We said it was coming and that it would be explosive. Why? Because that's what historical perspective tells us.
The NASDAQ 100 fell 38% during the 11-month cyclical bear market. The S&P 500 lost just 27%. The S&P 600 (Small Caps) lost 28%. I expected the NASDAQ 100 to outperform when the cyclical bear market ended. If you recall Q4 performance, then you remember that the S&P 500 CRUSHED the NASDAQ 100 from the October low through the end of the year. The rotation to more aggressive areas was not only overdue in 2023, but it should have been expected. But when it happens, the permabears find yet another reason to ignore the 2023 rally - breadth.
Listen, I'm totally fine recognizing that breadth was weak. But it's a secondary indicator, like everything else other than price/volume, which is my ONLY primary indicator. Primary indicators MUST confirm secondary indicators. It's that simple. Bear markets brainwash us though. Retail traders, based on the equity only put call ratio ($CPCE), didn't truly turn bearish until May 2022 - just before a major low printed in June, the very next month. Big picture sentiment doesn't change overnight. It takes a lot of days of CNBC for all the bad news and awful market action to begin to sink in. When it finally sinks in, though, you can't get it out of your head to objectively assess the stock market. Wall Street firms were buying growth stocks HAND OVER FIST in 2022, just as everyone was turning excessively bearish. That enabled those pesky market manipulators (oops, meant to say market makers) to buy growth stocks incredibly cheap (example: NVDA) for themselves, their firms, and their wealthy clients.
We've Been Hoodwinked!
It's very clear to me that all the rotation into aggressive large cap areas in 2022 preceded the HUGE 2023 move in key sectors like technology (XLK), which has now gained 34% year-to-date. The big Wall Street firms got it right, as usual, and this chart helps to illustrate intraday QQQ manipulation that I began discussing a year ago:"
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/04/59f5c031-0c72-4428-9d5f-f96c01a797ed.jpg
"If you want to know more about what these different color-coded periods represent, please refer to a previous article of mine, "Wall Street's Hunger Games Are Now Complete". But essentially, I refer to the intraday manipulation that took place during these various periods. It's worth the read, if you didn't read that article.
Some have said that one of my favorite intermarket relationships, consumer discretionary (XLY) vs. consumer staples (XLP), was bearish and showing no signs of life. After doing further research, ignoring the manipulative gaps, and studying intraday rotation, I completely disagree. Money has been rotating into discretionary vs. staples all year, but it's been masked by the opening downside gaps in the XLY. If we strip out gaps and only consider intraday rotation in the XLY:XLP ratio, we see a MUCH different picture. Check this out:"
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/04/ae4b293f-fdcc-4671-a252-dec871b347d2.jpg
"The top of this QQQ:SPY chart ignores gaps and has been rising since last year's May bottom. But if we allow the market makers to cloud the picture and include gaps (bottom panel), then we see a different picture. The top panel is provided only because we do independent research and use the User-Defined Index (UDI) feature at StockCharts.com to provide the ACTUAL rotation taking place. Our EB.com members KNOW what's truly been happening and were prepared for the bullish action that we're seeing in 2023.
Now It's Time for Small Caps To Surge
I've been highlighting the extreme rotation from value to growth among both mid caps and small caps the past couple months, just as I discussed the rotation to growth of large caps a year ago. There's only reason why money rotates to aggressive stocks under the surface of the S&P 500 action. Because future economic activity favors these stocks. So look at all the breadth indictors you'd like. Discuss the lack of participation until the cows come home. The fact of the matter is that the big Wall Street firms have been pouring into small cap growth vs. value and mid cap growth vs. value since March. I believe this accumulation is going to lead to a breakout and significant advance in the small cap world and IWM is the small cap ETF that tracks the Russell 2000. While I've been favoring investment in the IWM recently, I've been building a sizable position in the leveraged ETF - TNA - that tracks the IWM at a 3 to 1 clip. So returns (and possible losses) are tripled. First, I want you to see the visual rotation from value to growth:"
Small Caps:
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/04/5e1a6ccd-77c3-44af-9789-0a97e6525002.jpg
Mid Caps:
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/06/04/b02d1362-0a68-46a4-a4ac-c61f71f610b6.jpg
"It's really difficult for me to be bearish when I see this type of bullish rotation, topped off with major breakouts like the one on Friday regarding small caps.
Tomorrow morning, I'll be featuring another must-know story about this small cap breakout in our FREE EarningsBeats.com newsletter, the EB Digest. If you're not already a subscriber, it's simple. CLICK HERE to enter your name and email address. It's free, no credit card required, and you may unsubscribe at any time!"
Happy trading!
Tom
Stock Market Commentary 06/02/23
By Lawrence G. McMillan
"The market finally looks like it is breaking out on the upside. After numerous failed attempts to exceed and hold above 4200, $SPX seems to be on the way to doing just that. If it closes above 4210 today (June 2nd), that will be confirmation of an upside breakout.
The next target and resistance is the 4300 level the highs of last August. If that can be overcome, then the picture is quite bullish, with only 4650 (the highs of March 2022) and 4800 (the all- time highs) as obvious resistance areas.
Both equity-only put-call ratio charts are on buy signals. The standard ratio (Figure 2) rolled over first, and since its buy signal is coming from a relatively high level on its chart, it is normally a strong one. The weighted ratio (Figure 3) is less bullish. It sort of belatedly rolled over to a buy signal.
In any case, as long as these ratios are declining, they remain on buy signals.
Breadth has been swinging back and forth in rapid fashion, and in general it has been weaker than the broad market indices (which have been propelled by the AI and tech stocks, while many other stocks have languished). Having said THAT, both breadth oscillators are on buy signals now. So, if the upside breakout is confirmed by $SPX, it will be important to see breadth confirming that breakout as well.
The most bullish indicator all along has been $VIX and its various related indicators. That continues to be the case. Both $VIX-based buy signals are still in place.
In summary, we are going to take a "core" long position if the upside breakout is confirmed today by $SPX. In addition, we will trade other confirmed indicator signals as they occur."
Weekly Charts
S&P 500 (SPX), CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21), and Weighted 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21 w) charts updated each Friday.
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/SPX.JPG?v=1685732804096
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21.JPG?v=1685732804096
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21_W.JPG?v=1685732804096
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/VIX.JPG?v=1685732804096
"NYA is still severely lagging SPX"
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"If you've ever read the "financial" media (or really, any media), you know that one of their tricks to keep us interested is to use hyperbole a LOT. So you see a lot of headlines that either scream that it's the end of the world or that the market is going to the moon. What you don't see are a lot of pieces like the pieces I've been writing for the past couple months, which boil down to "nothing to see yet." So I apologize if these have been boring, but I prefer what I view as the "boring truth" to an exciting lie.
Nothing has changed from the past few updates, NYA is still severely lagging SPX (if need be, reread the past few updates to see what that means):"
"So, still nothing to add, unfortunately. Other than, of course, the news that JEROME POWELL EXPLODES!!! Which probably didn't happen. (Though, to be fair, I haven't seen any reports denying this, either.)
When something does happen, which it eventually will (I think), then we'll finally have something to talk about again.
Trade safe."
Today we are breaking out of range to the next level. SPX around 4370. This as labor market continues to build on new jobs and 10 million want ads. The short term bond yields continue to spike ever higher and the FED has promised to pause next meeting. What a setup for the close out of summer.
Been wrong on MAGA ability to train wreck the debt so maybe such a long tight labor market is not going to cause inflation to rise? CPI report should give us a good clue soon.
welcome to sub wave 3
market had to get everyone bearish
then inject fed juice big time
price is used to get you to do the wrong thing at the wrong time
market profile 101- markets often have to flush before they can rally
so the 2 day liquidation break did its job
it took out sellers and strengthened the market
we had a hard wave 2 at the open. (meaning the market could not break the lows)
so fib 1.61 was very likely
or abcd
pick your poison
algos came in at va low
just like they are suppo
until we lose the spy 9 14 ma
and they become resistance the up trend is still on.
both the es and nq are around the open
https://schrts.co/QagBTEBA
"...NYA continues to want to try to pull SPX down."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
" Let's start off with a look at NYA, which continues to lag severely:"
"Next, a reminder of my current near-term view, which is unchanged since last week:
This lag suggests two diametrically opposed possibilities: Either SPX only has a little more upside, and the rest of the market will drag it back down -- or SPX is headed toward at least Red 2 and that will drag the rest of the market up. NYA may become particularly germane here -- IF it can break above the red c/3 high, as it would then need to go on to form 5 waves from the 15055 low. Right now, because of the divergences across markets, it's a bit early to determine how significant SPX's breakout may or may not be, so how these markets collectively behave during the upcoming sessions will be important toward drawing firmer conclusions one way or the other about the larger time frames.
Next up, there is potential intermediate resistance overhead in SPX on two different scales, the first of which is shown below:"
"Long-term resistance shows on the next chart as well -- which also happens to be a crazy projection chart I drew more than a year ago. I haven't moved anything on this chart since then:"
"In conclusion, NYA continues to want to try to pull SPX down. SPX is also facing overhead resistance, which just happens to line up with a chart I drew before the bear market was even being called a "bear market" by the masses. So, it will be interesting to see if we're getting into the ballpark of a turn, or not. Trade safe."
If true the timing of such reversal is useless. Does it signal a major reversal is coming? Maybe.
How did it do with such external events like a Pandemic? I cringe at the ability of investors to rely on signals instead of common sense.
Where are we today? Inflation is NOT going away and in fact shows signs it is about to move higher still. Economics 101, the basic framework of all analysis is the labor market. Tight with no signs of weakening. Wage pressure ALWAYS results. Spending at times of change. Well we have stronger than expected consumer spending still even as big ticket items are being ignored. The bond market is telling us inflation is NOT reversing towards the past 40 years of disinflation. In fact they keep rising once again despite the so called debt ceiling deal.
External events like a pandemic was a no-brainer for me but obviously not the market. it took them 5 weeks and an actual death on US soil for it to reverse big time. So FORGET about signs, technical readings, and other built in mechanisms. Inflation is stubborn and persistent, and an implosive GOP can easily plunge this market immediately down 30 percent.
Main focus today: Easy, debt ceiling agreement. I highly doubt it would pass from the Republican side. Their secretive last minute deal was proof of their concerns. We only have a few days this week to fond out if it does get passed. No deal means an immediate PLUNGE!
An easy no-brainer call! A default will plunge this economy and market into chaos. With a deal we extend the bullish move till INFLATION will prove to be similar to the early 80's. A One trillion dollar gamble by banks is jus the start of the problem. The Street is desperate for a rate CUT in 2023. The number of institutions across a large asset class will default on their obligations betting deflation is back.
Like a Pandemic and Debt Crisis all external events come upon us like a hidden Tiger. We have 2 immediate problems lurking. One the Debt ceiling and we will know before the end of this week. the other is INFLATION and the data starting by end of this week will verify these concerns.
BOTH of these events are at a point where either one can trigger a crash scenario since it seems to be ignored with current assumptions and prices.
Back n TNA at open
Fight This Bullish Development At Your Own Risk
Tom Bowley | May 28, 2023 at 12:11 PM
http://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2023/05/fight-this-bullish-development-409.html
"Sentiment was a HUGE problem for the bulls to start 2022 and now it's become a similarly big issue for the bears now. If you haven't noticed, most bulls don't begin to turn bearish until after all or most of the selling is complete. After we've endured a nasty bear market, either secular or cyclical, most bears can't see that a bottom has formed until after a major advance has already occurred. Media brainwashing is a real thing and Wall Street firms use this to their advantage to exit before retail traders and then buy back in just as retail traders acknowledge all the market weakness and bad news.
One signal to help call market tops and bottoms is by following the long-term moving average of the equity-only put-call ratio ($CPCE). I use the 253-day moving average (253 trading days = 1 year) and refer to it as my "freight-liner" sentiment signal, because it takes a long time to change the 1-year direction of the put call ratio. But the signals produced by it cannot be ignored. Here's the chart:"
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/28/e52b2120-6d78-4fdb-8b9d-3cc713fcad6d.jpg
"This simply makes good common sense to me. When traders turn overly bearish and believe the market MUST go lower, do you think they're invested on the long side? Probably not. They've already sold. After a long period of market weakness and a substantial increase in bearish sentiment, the market is sold out. There's little downside, because those wanting to sell have already done so. Therefore, when this "freight-liner" indicator begins to roll over, there's lots of cash on the sidelines to continue to propel the market higher and higher.
At first glance, the top right now looks a little bit suspect, right? After all, it's just barely turning down from the top and one argument is that this is a blip and the continuing market weakness will result in another push higher in this CPCE chart. But you have to understand a couple things. There were several readings of the daily CPCE in November and December that were artificially high. It was reported that big funds had taken sizable put positions in the largest market cap companies like AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA, GOOGL, etc. I saw those HUGE levels of put options in the CBOE half-hour readings that I follow, so it was fairly easy to pull those professional put buys out of the CPCE in order to reflect what retail traders are doing. After all, when I gauge sentiment, I want to know what the retail trading community is doing.
As a result of the above, I started a User-Defined Index at StockCharts.com. I used the daily CPCE readings on StockCharts, but I adjusted those daily readings that clearly needed adjusting. First, let me show you the readings that improperly impacted the daily readings:"
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/28/2ef7a4cd-b715-4890-a068-1a7bec73abd0.jpg
"The CPCE rises when retail traders panic. That's the historical norm and it makes sense. The highest reading of 1.35 came in 2008 during the financial crisis. ANY daily reading above 1.0 will coincide with stock market selling. But those November and December readings hit a high of 2.40 during a period when the stock market was rising! In my UDI, I adjusted the daily CPCE readings by removing these huge increases in equity puts that occurred in the middle of trading days. There were approximately 10 days that I adjusted. My UDI began in 2021, because I wanted to see how the 253-day moving average was truly reacting in Q4 2022. Here is my UDI chart on the CPCE and how it's trending now:"
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/28/5b682aff-679d-436b-ae48-1af4dd5ae7e1.jpg
"The rolling over of the 253-day CPCE is much more obvious after adjusting the ridiculous and overstated readings from November and December. History tells us that this is a MAJOR BUY signal. And it's not like I'm just pulling this up now to support my bullish stance. I also provided this to our MarketVision 2022 crowd in January 2022. It was just turning up at that time and I indicated that the stock market's biggest problem heading into 2022 was the 253-day moving average of the CPCE just starting to turn higher. It proved to be an excellent bearish call.
I remain adamant that you want to be long. I've had many bullish signals emerge over the past year, but this is a very important one that is adding more bullish fuel to the fire."
Our Spring Special is winding down and today's the last day to take advantage of the best market guidance on the planet! If you'd like to be a part of our EarningsBeats.com community and find out why our members are overwhelmingly satisfied, CLICK HERE and select the right plan for you!
Happy trading!
Tom
role of the fed is greater then ever
put away the bear suits this bear has been dead for quite awhile
during the banking crisis they silently came in to add liquidity to offset bad loans
The FED uses something called true inflation which is now at 2.8. Believe or not inflation is falling. Traditional inflation models simply do not work anymore.
The old saying still applies do not fight the fed.
Fed is back to QE big time.
GOLD should be zooming with inflation NOPE.
The spy which is not even the leader pulls back on lower volume
re-energizes then rallies again. SPY in 3 month rally.
Any pullback that just goes sideways is extremely bullish
https://schrts.co/KwqsdTQc
The Downside to This Up Market
David Keller | May 26, 2023 at 08:04 PM
"Are stocks in a bull market phase at the moment?
Well, that certainly depends on where you're looking. If you're analyzing the Nasdaq 100 index, or semiconductors, or AAPL, or NFLX, or a handful of other mega-cap growth names, then that is basically an undeniable truth at this point. If you're looking at energy stocks, or the financial sector, or the equal-weighted S&P 500, or to be completely honest most US stocks at this point, then that answer is a little tougher to justify.
So how much of a problem is it that this "narrow leadership" issue we've discussed frequently on The Final Bar continues to plague the equity markets as we near the end of May 2023? That depends on what you own during this narrowly-led bull market phase!"
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/26/02d266b8-e468-4839-8735-c46293216dc7.jpg
"If you're in the Nasdaq 100 (top panel, black) names like MSFT and AAPL, you're seeing another strong up week. You've experienced a new high every month so far in 2023, including May. The trend is your friend, and that trend is clearly bullish!
If you own the S&P 500 index (middle panel, blue), you're probably feeling cautiously confident at this point, with another test of the February highs working this last week. Although previous attempts to push above S&P 4200 have failed, the rally through the course of this week most likely lets you head into the holiday weekend with renewed optimism.
What about if you own the "average" S&P 500 stock, as represented by RSP, the equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF (bottom panel, red)? Now you're thinking less about the February highs and more about the March lows, which are still very much in play.
And it's not just the S&P 500 index having this "lack of participation" issue. Here are the cumulative advance-decline lines for the NYSE, large caps, mid caps, and small caps."
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/26/0b3b15e4-10de-4764-b74d-d8877b997e74.jpg
"Note how, while the S&P 500 has been trending higher over the last six weeks, literally all four of those advance-decline lines are sloping lower. If the A-D lines are the real representation of the market trend, an argument that we find has great value these days, then this may be in fact a clear bear market phase! Yet the averages keep pushing onward and ever upward.
To add fuel to the bullish fire, we have the New Dow Theory chart very close to signaling a "bull confirmation" signal. We would need to see an upside follow-through next week to complete the pattern, but the setup so far seems constructive.
Charts like Netflix (NFLX) keep pushing above key resistance levels, indicating that additional buyers are coming in and providing further upside momentum. And with Consumer Staples stocks pulling back from their own resistance levels, the offense-defense ratio appears to be rotating clearly to the offensive side."
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/26/f22f7efc-2127-4e04-8ebd-7a9fc7b282fe.jpg
"My biggest concern for this market? Limited upside from current levels. There are indeed two ways that this market resolves from here.
The first option is that breadth conditions improve, with beaten-down names that have yet to be participating in the upswing start regaining their ground. There are more 52-week highs to be had and charts like the McClellan Oscillator get out of the "bearish" region by breaking back above the zero level.
The second option is that the influx of demand for growth stocks pushes prices to unsustainable levels, as the FOMO-led AI craze evaporates, the music stops, and the lack of breadth support finally becomes the death knell for the great bull market of early 2023.
What's the good news?
If the bullish option plays out, there will be plenty of buying opportunities. While it feels like you may have missed out on the biggest bull run in stock market history, things may just be getting started. Watch for breakouts, set price alert, run your scans, and you will find charts that are at actionable entry points.
If the bearish option plays out, then the charts will tell you when the uptrend in growth stocks has run its course. Watch indicators like RSI for bearish divergences, use something like MACD or PPO to confirm a downside rotation, and stick with uptrends until the chart tells you the uptrend is done.
I asked our three panelists on The Pitch this week (thanks again to Dave Landry, Mark Newton, and Joe Rabil!) how they manage to survive challenging periods like this. I thought Mark's response was as good as I've heard.
"Well, I try to surround myself with charts rather than news."
Well said, Mark.
Our latest YouTube video digs into the chart of Netflix, tracking the latest breakout and using RSI and Fibonacci Retracements to identify potential resistance levels. Check it out!"
Stock Market Commentary 05/26/23
By Lawrence G. McMillan
"The trading range environment for $SPX is still in place. The horizontal lines on the chart in Figure 1 depict the extent of the three most prominent ranges that are in place right now. Most recently, the tightest range is 4100-4200. A slightly wider range, 4050-4200, exists if one extends back into April. Then the larger range, roughly 3800-4200 encompasses all of 2023 and even the last part of 2022. Of course, 4200 is the top of all of these ranges. One can be sure that aggressive traders have been and will continue to short the market at 4200. If it eventually breaks out to the upside, there will likely be some heavy short covering to accompany that move.
The fundamental background, from the negativity of the debt ceiling and T-Bill rates, to the positivity of tech stocks, has generated a considerable amount of uncertainty in the market. That's why we're stuck in a trading range on $SPX. This uncertainty is showing up in a number of the indicators as well. For example, the equity-only put-call ratios have been somewhat at odds. The standard ratio rolled over to a buy signal (see Figure2) a little over a week ago, and that ratio has been steadily declining ever since. The weighted ratio, however, is much lower on its chart, and while it has been drifting lower, it has been more of a grudging decline. Only yesterday did the "count" verify a buy signal from the weighted ratio, and even there the computer analysis programs are not giving it a full-fledged buy signal certification.
Breadth has been much more negative than $SPX. Breadth has been negative on four of the last five days including the day that $SPX rallied in response to the big jump in the price of NVDA. That decline in breadth not only canceled out its recent breadth oscillator buy signals, but threw those oscillators back into oversold territory. Of course, from here a buy signal will eventually emerge, but given the whipsaw nature of these breadth oscillators (recently, even more than usual), these are difficult to rely on.
The one area that has remained steadfastly bullish is implied volatility -- $VIX and its derivatives. The "spike peak" buy signal of early May remains in place. Meanwhile, the trend of $VIX buy signal remains in place. It would be stopped out by a $VIX rise above its 200-day Moving Average, which is currently at 22.30 and declining.
In summary, the indicators are mixed, and $SPX locked into a trading range. As a result, we are not carrying a "core" position at this time, but we will trade individual indicators if they give confirmed signals."
Weekly Charts
S&P 500 (SPX), CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21), and Weighted 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21 w) charts updated each Friday.
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/SPX.JPG?v=1685123993447
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21.JPG?v=1685123993447
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21_W.JPG?v=1685123993447
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/VIX.JPG?v=1685123993447
the market is supposed to be deceptive
so just using pricing is a good way to lose money
twice the bears tested the ES lows and failed
alternate wave counts is like saying the patient died but the operation was a success
"SPX declined to 4103 and found support..."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Last update called out SPX 4100-11 as the next zone to watch, and SPX declined to 4103 and found support in that first target zone. As noted last update, if SPX can sustain a breakdown below the first zone, then 4040-51 becomes the next zone to watch.
Since SPX is back into a congestion zone, NYA is far more interesting:"
"As we can see, NYA has now overlapped the 1/a high, which means that we are likely looking at a 3-wave rally on the heels of the long-presumed impulsive decline (the red 12345 back in March). As long as bears can hold that c/3 high, then things look promising for them.
Other than that, nothing to add to the past couple updates. Trade safe."
My curiosity ...
I'm wondering if anyone but me has noticed that the yield curve is hugely inverted and that the inversion didn't exist till the middle of last November and since then it's moved from mildly inverted to hugely inverted now.
With short term treasuries paying well over 5% wouldn't you think that would suck the life out of the stock market now?
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php
".... I warned on Friday and Monday not to read too much into the breakout in SPX -- but by the same token, as of yet, we can't read too much into downward options, either. We're still range-bound, but, if nothing else, this reversal is obviously preferrable for bears than the alternative."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"On Friday (and reiterated on Monday), I noted that INDU and NYA were both severely lagging SPX, and wrote:
This lag suggests two diametrically opposed possibilities: Either SPX only has a little more upside, and the rest of the market will drag it back down -- or SPX is headed toward at least Red 2 and that will drag the rest of the market up. NYA may become particularly germane here -- IF it can break above the red c/3 high, as it would then need to go on to form 5 waves from the 15055 low. Right now, because of the divergences across markets, it's a bit early to determine how significant SPX's breakout may or may not be, so how these markets collectively behave during the upcoming sessions will be important toward drawing firmer conclusions one way or the other about the larger time frames.
After Friday's update was published, SPX ran a little higher, then stalled, and it has since reversed lower. This is (so far) in keeping with the first possibility discussed on Friday (above).
The next zones to watch in SPX are 4100-11, and, if SPX sustains trade below the first zone, 4040-51.
We can see on INDU that a sustained breakdown would suggest some downside follow through:"
"NYA is in a similar position:"
"NYA's bigger picture chart is still unchanged:"
"This is why I warned on Friday and Monday not to read too much into the breakout in SPX -- but by the same token, as of yet, we can't read too much into downward options, either. We're still range-bound, but, if nothing else, this reversal is obviously preferrable for bears than the alternative. Trade safe."
Small Caps Are Ready To Launch!
Tom Bowley | May 23, 2023 at 11:50 AM
http://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2023/05/small-caps-are-ready-to-launch-838.html
"There are many who have given up on the small cap community, but I'm not one of them. The long-term 15-year chart remains in a solid uptrend. Yes, the group has been underperforming the S&P 500 for quite awhile, but that's been the standard since this bull market began. Admittedly, its relative strength has been poor. Its absolute performance, however, remains in an uptrend and we could be on the verge of a major breakout today. Check out this daily chart:"
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/23/407f2905-a3ff-4ad8-9eda-9decf88c1db9.jpg
"While the IWM has been floundering, check out that bottom panel. Money has been steadily rotating from small cap value ($DJUSVS) to small cap growth ($DJUSGS). I've been discussing this with our EarningsBeats.com members for the last several weeks. This bottoming formation (blue circles), though a bit longer in duration, is quite similar to previous bottoms. The MAJOR difference this time is the shift to small cap growth, which I believe is a signal that this breakout won't simply be short-term, and the simultaneous bullish PPO crossover (black circle). I'm looking for a small cap explosion on this breakout, IF it confirms into today's close! I'm betting it will."
"We're hosting a Live Trading Room tomorrow, Wednesday, May 24th, beginning at 8:45am ET. It's an annual members only event, but the silver lining is that we're running our Spring Special right now, which is our absolute BEST deal of the year. CLICK HERE to check out the amazing savings! I will most certainly be looking at individual small caps that could be poised for HUGE advances, given the potential breakout in the IWM. I hope you can join me for a very exciting and educational day. I'll be scanning our ChartLists to find great trading opportunities. Who knows, maybe you'll be able to pay for your membership with Wednesday's profits!"
Happy trading!
Tom
"This is the most exasperating market I believe I've seen in at least a decade, maybe longer."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"SPX changed by a whopping 6 points on Friday, leaving everything in the exact same position. To the point that there's really no reason to even publish an update, frankly.
Here's Friday's update again, which is unchanged.
That said, "market didn't do anything" doesn't mean I don't still look through my chart book to see if I missed anything or if any new clues cropped up in other markets. I did that, as I always do, and happened to stumble across this chart from more than two months ago:"
"Other than that, there's nothing else to add since Friday. This is the most exasperating market I believe I've seen in at least a decade, maybe longer. I've even heard rumors that the next dictionary will feature a picture of the early-2023 stock market next to the definition of "ennui,". Trade safe."
Compare ...
last two SnP trading days of this last week to 08/25 and 08/26 of 2022 (which are also the last two trading days of their week). One can draw a flat line between the two. That level was also just above a major H/L reversal on Thursday, 02/02/23.
Could the reversal of last Friday be the beginning of a new reversal that has legs (having sucker rallies)? If so, there are a few lower support levels on the way down that could feed sucker rallies -- fun to watch but not be in.
Wall Street's Hunger Games Are Now Complete
Tom Bowley | May 21, 2023 at 02:07 PM
http://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2023/05/wall-streets-hunger-games-are-435.html
"It was the culmination of many months of accumulation by Wall Street firms. I've discussed this accumulation, or manipulation, over and over and over and indicated that it was the likely precursor to a big stock market advance. I've updated a chart of the QQQ (ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100) to show how the QQQ has been accumulated/distributed throughout the trading day since its top in November 2021. Check this out:"
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/21/7307c838-5e12-4a2a-9278-9e1147630b61.jpg
"Let me provide you the details of each phase:
Orange Bearish Manipulation Phase
This was the period where Wall Street firms were moving from aggressive stocks to defensive stocks. I discussed this at the beginning of 2022 after consumer staples (XLP) absolutely dominated consumer discretionary (XLY) during December 2021. This manipulation period was further proof that Wall Street was preparing for the type of selloff that NO ONE was talking about. Here's how the cumulative intraday trading looked from November 21, 2021 through January 3, 2022:
Opening gap: +6.30
9:30-10:00am: +4.01
10:00-11:00am: -19.22
11:00am-4:00pm: +8.80
We were seeing opening gaps higher and early morning buying, followed by balance of day selling. That, combined with obvious rotation in "risk off" fashion spelled trouble for stocks to open 2022. There was also extreme complacency in the options world. This was the bulls' last gasp short-term, prior to the start of a cyclical bear market.
Red Pure Distribution Phase
This was the "run for the hills" phase, when Wall Street firms were selling throughout the day to the unsuspecting public that widely remained bullish. Aggressive areas of the market were thrashed and there no signs of accumulation at any point during the trading day. Here was the cumulative intraday performance:
Opening gap: -29.68
9:30-10:00am: -35.08
10:00-11:00am: -32.93
11:00am-4:00pm: -14.59
Throughout this period, we not only saw significant gap downs from bearish media headlines, but also plenty of selling during the entire trading day. The net trading performance of every part of the trading day was negative and bearish.
Light Green Bullish Manipulation Phase
This was the period where you didn't understand what was happening, unless you were "looking under the surface" of the major indices. It may have appeared that everything was awful. The news was horrible regarding inflation, interest rates were being raised briskly, FedSpeak kept reinforcing that inflation was a major problem, recession talk began, etc. It led to very sizable gaps to the downside and morning selling, but it was followed by a TON of intraday buying. This was a major indication that Wall Street firms were perfectly content to buy every share that the public was willing to sell. In short, Wall Street was accumulating at cheap prices. Here's how the cumulative intraday trading performance looked for this period:
Opening gap: -44.89
9:30-10:00am: -33.79
10:00-11:00am: +8.67
11:00am-4:00pm: +42.48
Check out this CRAZY morning distribution, followed by the massive accumulation throughout the afternoon. There's a reason why the first hour of trading is called "amateur hour". The continuing awful headlines sent stocks spiraling lower throughout this MANIPULATIVE period at the opening bell. Then the herd kept selling and selling. The big Wall Street firms calmly sat back and waited for prices to drop in the morning hours in order to begin buying in force throughout the balance of the day. Yet, when you look at the technical picture from May 2022 through the end of the year, it provided us ZERO signs that the market was about to scorch higher. But Wall Street knew differently. They simply needed to fill their coffers ahead of everyone else - and then the fun (bullishness) would begin. I wrote and discussed all of this in real time, saying that it would lead to a bullish advance ahead. I also said the CYCLICAL bear market was over. Most scoffed at this notion. Well, it led us to the resumption of the secular bull market advance - and the bears keep fighting the market's strength. Those remaining bearish are paying the price and, in my opinion, the price will get steeper and steeper as the year marches along.
Dark Green Pure Accumulation Phase
We're just scratching the surface on this 2023 rally. Make no mistake about it, we're going higher - a lot higher. I follow where the money goes and couldn't care less about what the talking heads are saying. IGNORE THE MEDIA and FOLLOW THE CHARTS. The big Wall Street firms are betting their money on a significant rally ahead. You can do what you like, but I'm following these firms. The manipulation and ridiculous conflict of interest on Wall Street is quite apparent to me. These big firms like Goldman Sachs invest their own money and their wealthy clients' money. Then they parade their "influencers", err I meant to say "analysts", out into the media to tell everyone what to buy and sell and to tell us how low the market is going to go and how poor earnings this quarter will be. Meanwhile, their market making unit does the opposite of what those influencers (oops, my mistake again) are telling us to do. It's quite the racket. But guess what? It's our system and it's not going to change. So you can either be manipulated by it or you can profit from it. I choose the latter for myself and for our EarningsBeats.com members. Ready to see how the cumulative intraday trading performance looks for 2023?
Opening gap: -6.28
9:30-10:00am: +19.07
10:00-11:00am: -4.31
11:00am-4:00pm: +66.43
Hhhmmmm, a little different picture, don't you think? The first part of the day is still the weakest part, but it's nothing like we experienced in 2022. The manipulation is ending. Why? Because Wall Street firms have filled their stockings and they'd like to thank everyone for selling them shares so cheaply in 2022. As the QQQ set a 52-week high last week, Wall Street's profits soar. Welcome to Wall Street's Hunger Games!
Best Deal of the Year
We have saved or made our EarningsBeats.com members millions of dollars throughout the "Hunger Games." Our strong conviction that January 2022 was the beginning of a cyclical bear market enabled members to either move to cash or position themselves appropriately to minimize losses during the worst part of the bear market from January through June of 2022. I also very clearly stated my belief that the mid-June 2022 low was a major bottom and repeated that belief in September 2022 when we completed a double bottom. I've never wavered since and I've been proven correct. And now I am telling you that we're going a lot higher."
I mention all of this, because we just began our Spring Special on Thursday. We offer our members the absolute best in market guidance, research, and education. We are even offering a FREE year's subscription for those willing to commit to a longer membership. You won't find a better deal to join the best market guidance on the planet. If any of this resonates with you, or you'd like to consider a different direction with our proven market guidance, you should CLICK HERE to sign up for our 30-day FREE trial. If you like our service during your trial, you can use our Spring Special to extend your membership (will add on to the end of your trial period). And if our service isn't for you, you lose nothing, and can cancel your membership prior to the end of your free trial.
I hope you'll consider us at EarningsBeats while our prices are low - and let us help make a difference in your financial future.
Happy trading!
Tom
Stock Market Commentary 05/19/23
By Lawrence G. McMillan
"Once the market perceived that the "debt ceiling crisis" might not be a crisis after all, it began to rise again. $SPX is right at the top of the trading range and is attempting to break out. Those are very positive things. But before we jump on board with both feet, remember that 1) politicians can't be trusted, and 2) there have been some rather severe false upside breakouts by $SPX in the last couple of years.
A close above 4210 would close the first gap on the $SPX chart (circled area on the chart in Figure 1), and that would be a positive step. In addition, a breakout over 4300 would be very strong evidence for the bullish case.
The internal indicators have been giving mixed signals while $SPX has been tied down in this trading range (4050-4200). The equity-only put-call ratios have been moving more or less sideways for about a week. The standard ratio (Figure 2) is now rated as being on a buy signal, according to the computer analysis programs, but the weighted ratio (Figure 3) is not. Frankly, both charts look similar, and it would not be surprising to see the weighted ratio upgraded to a buy signal soon.
Market breadth has been swinging wildly back and forth. Breadth was so negative for most of the month of May, that the breadth oscillators were on sell signals and in oversold territory as recently as this past Tuesday, May 16th. But a massive positive day of breadth on the 17th and follow-through on the 18th have generated confirmed buy signals from both of the breadth oscillators.
$VIX and its derivatives have been steadfastly bullish throughout the time that $SPX has been in this trading range. $VIX is down below 17 now. The "spike peak" buy signal of early May remains in place. In addition, the trend of $VIX buy signal -- which began in the circled area of Figure 4 in late March -- is intact as well.
In summary, an upside breakout by $SPX would be a positive thing. So, if the breakout occurs, we will join with it, but we want to see a clean two-consecutive-day move above 4210 before getting too excited about the upside."
Weekly Charts
S&P 500 (SPX), CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21), and Weighted 21-Day Equity Only Put Call Ratio (PC21 w) charts updated each Friday.
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/SPX.JPG?v=1684537696640
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21.JPG?v=1684537696640
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21_W.JPG?v=1684537696640
http://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/VIX.JPG?v=1684537696640
"Right now, because of the divergences across markets, it's a bit early to determine how significant SPX's breakout may or may not be......."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Last two updates, I thought there was a chance SPX might head down to test the 4090ish zone again, but that didn't happen, with the market finally breaking a bit higher instead. This is the first semi-real progress SPX has made in a while, and it does change the position of the potential blue 2?:"
"It's interesting to note how much NYA is lagging:"
"And how much INDU is lagging:"
"This lag suggests two diametrically opposed possibilities: Either SPX only has a little more upside, and the rest of the market will drag it back down -- or SPX is headed toward at least Red 2 and that will drag the rest of the market up. NYA may become particularly germane here -- IF it can break above the red c/3 high, as it would then need to go on to form 5 waves from the 15055 low. Right now, because of the divergences across markets, it's a bit early to determine how significant SPX's breakout may or may not be, so how these markets collectively behave during the upcoming sessions will be important toward drawing firmer conclusions one way or the other about the larger time frames. Trade safe."
Where Are We? Can We Say This Is A Bull Market?
Tom Bowley | May 14, 2023 at 10:47 AM
https://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2023/05/where-are-we-can-we-say-this-i-192.html
"Price Action
Clearly, the most important aspect of the stock market is price action. That's where it all begins. Currently, I like the daily and weekly charts, but we do still have one very important price resistance level to clear:"
S&P 500 - Weekly:
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/14/1c19b1ab-8bdd-4f2c-b547-54ba49703a1e.jpg
"There are obvious improvements on this chart in 2023. First, the downtrend was broken in January and, after retesting the breakdown line, we've seen prices move to higher highs. Next, the PPO broke above centerline resistance. It quickly returned to centerline support, but instead of rolling right back over with more bearish momentum, PPO moved back to a higher high - just like price action. That tells us, at least for now, that bulls remain completely in charge. Could that change? Of course and that's exactly what the bears are hoping for. Personally, I need to see it first.
I see the market as range bound. I believe 3775 is very solid intermediate-term price support, while 4300 is the next wall of price resistance. Which one breaks first? That'll be a significant clue as to what we should expect over the balance of 2023 and into 2024. We should note that while price action has been solid in 2023, we have no RSI confirmation of a secular bull market advance just yet. During downtrends, the RSI typically resides in the 30-60 range, with occasional dips below 30. The weekly RSI is at 55 and has yet to move above 60. So while I remain bullish over the balance of 2023, it's not a slam dunk and we need to remain objective."
S&P 500 - Daily:
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/14/69c6d54e-9aa0-462a-b56f-f853dc141156.jpg
"This chart tells me a story. One historical fact is that 6 of the last 13 bear markets have ended during the month of October. If October 2022 ultimately proves to be the low, it'll mark the 7th out of the last 14. That's a powerful number that certainly provides us evidence of a potential market bottom. The uptrend off that potential October bottom is obvious. There's been a bit of hesitation and consolidation along the way, but there are a series of higher highs and higher low, which is the definition of an uptrend. It cannot be ignored, even if you're in the bearish camp. There is also a clearly-defined short-term closing price resistance of 4179. We've been there twice now without a successful breakout. A close above 4179 should be viewed bullishly.
Over the past 8 months, the 4050-4100 area has shown to have fairly serious price support/resistance. I've highlighted key moves into and out of this zone in red (price resistance) and green (price support). There's also the 50-day SMA, currently at 4057, to provide some support for the bulls. In the very near-term, the bulls and bears are battling in this 4050-4179 area. On short-term breakouts vs. breakdowns, I'd say the bears have one advantage. If price resistance at 4179 is broken, it's a fairly short trip to MAJOR 4305 price resistance. That's the August 2022 high that I believe completely changes the picture on the weekly chart, confirming the resumption of the secular bull market by ending the series of lower highs and lower lows (refer to the numbering of 1 to 5 on the weekly chart). But what happens if price support at 4050 is lost? There's nearly 300 points of downside to consider to the 3775 support level.
Price action is our PRIMARY indicator. The reason I do all the research I do and study history like I do is quite simple. I don't want to wait for the S&P 500 to move from a 3491 low to a breakout above 4305 before admitting the stock market is in an uptrend. That's over 800 points and approximately 23%. That's the equivalent of 2 1/2 years of normal S&P 500 returns (the S&P 500 has averaged gaining 9% or so per year since 1950). The stock market does provide us clues as to its "under the surface" strength and weakness. We can evaluate the risk of being long vs. being short or in cash from these signals. But you have to know what to look for.
Leadership
History tells us that it's very important to see leadership from "risk on" areas of the stock market during bull market advances. That includes our most aggressive sectors - technology (XLK), consumer discretionary (XLY), and communication services (XLC). The S&P 500 finally cleared its 2000 and 2007 highs on April 10, 2013. That was the date, in my opinion, that the current secular bull market began. From that day through the January 3, 2022 market top, the S&P 500 and the 11 sectors performed as follows:
S&P 500: +202.10%
Sectors:
Technology (XLK): +554.95%
Consumer discretionary (XLY): +338.25%
Communication services (XLC): +303.71%
Health care (XLV): +239.38%
Financials (XLF): +210.98%
Industrials (XLI): +196.65%
Materials (XLB): +173.02%
Real estate (XLRE): +171.40%
Consumer staples (XLP): +140.95%
Utilities (XLU): +138.39%
Energy (XLE): +0.63%
The 3 key "risk on" sectors - XLK, XLY, XLC - dominated the action throughout the entire secular bull market. During a period of strong economic growth and historically-low interest rates, that leadership completely makes sense to me. We all know we've been through a very challenging market since the 2020 pandemic. Many believe we have steep challenges ahead that will drive equity prices lower. Maybe they will, but I'm not in that camp. We remain in an extremely low interest rate environment and the stock market looks ahead 6-9 months. The fact that we've seen the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) falling for 7 months, dropping nearly 100 basis points, tells me that bond market traders are ignoring inflationary risks and are instead concentrating on the likelihood that the Fed will hike rates no more - and possibly even lower them. That, in turn, is resulting in a substantial shift once again into the aggressive sectors garnering more than their fair share of rotation. Check out this year-to-date performance summary of the 11 sectors:"
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/05/14/1f076bce-76df-4cfd-b885-9d49c54e9ca4.jpg
"Notice which sectors are leading, by a mile? This is normal secular bull market behavior. The S&P 500 is up 7.41% year-to-date, led by aggressive growth stocks. It sure seems like the key sectors are leading the benchmark higher in 2023, just as they've done throughout the entire secular bull market. This is a critical "under the surface" indicator that does not support the bears' argument of lower prices ahead.
Sentiment
When I spoke at our MarketVision 2022 event on Saturday, January 8th of that year, I said the number 1 issue facing the stock market was NOT inflation. It wasn't interest rates. It wasn't a potential recession. It wasn't the Fed. Instead, I argued the biggest issue was SENTIMENT. Retail traders had grown incredibly bullish and that spelled BIG TROUBLE as we opened 2022. I suggested, in a worst-case scenario, that the S&P 500 could visit the 3500-3800 range. That's when the S&P 500 was near its all-time close to 4900. That was a very bold prediction. But it came true 9 months later when the S&P 500 hit a final low of 3491.58 on October 13th. I warned the bulls and continued to do so for the next several months until saying the risk of being short (or in cash) had escalated and I reversed course. History has proven me correct. And now sentiment is about to provide a MAJOR signal that every trader needs to be aware of. When this signal has been provided in the past, it's preceded an unbelievable market reaction every time.
I'll provide that signal in advance in Monday's FREE EB Digest article. The signal almost certainly will trigger later this month and, if it's correct again, it will provide you a very meaningful directional signal regarding the benchmark S&P 500. If you'd like to discover one of the most important "beneath the surface" stock market signals, CLICK HERE and provide your name and email address to subscribe to our EB Digest newsletter. Again, it's free, there's not credit card required, and you may unsubscribe at any time!"
Happy trading!
Tom
PS. If you haven't subscribed to this Trading Places blog, be sure to do so by scrolling down and providing your email address. Once subscribed, every Trading Places article will be sent to your inbox the moment it's published!
"...I........suspect that it's headed below 4098, which does have the potential to turn more bearish, as long as bears continue holding 4155."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"SPX followed last update's blue path fairly well, even peaking at the time of day I'd suggested on Monday's chart. I would still suspect that it's headed below 4098, which does have the potential to turn more bearish, as long as bears continue holding 4155."
"Nothing else to add, so trade safe.
(If anyone missed last update, I mentioned: I have a son graduating high school this week, and I have family in town for the next couple weeks, so unless there's actually something new to say during that time, the updates will probably be brief. Thanks for your understanding.)"
rooting for your team
they are always in the hunt
hope they get some luck
jxyz
Hi Jerry
Yes I'm a Stars fan and last nights game 7 was a good game and we managed to advance.
We go to Vegas to start the Western Final on Friday.
Looking forward to it. I live on the west coast but I grew up in MN and I've remained a Stars fan from the North Stars days of my youth. I don't like using the D word as I am no fan of the Cowboys. Still a long suffering Vikings fan........
are you watching the nhl playoffs game 7
if i am confusing you with some one else sorry
"SPX Update: More Fun than a Mayonnaise Popsicle"
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Nothing to add to the last 283 updates, since SPX held the next semi-meaningful level. I suspect we may see something like the blue path outlined below, but I'm far from certain of that, as the pattern here is best described as "a seemingly-mindless blob.""
"There is, of course, nothing to add about the intermediate term, given that the market went nowhere for the entirety of last week, after going nowhere for 2023, after going nowhere since April of 2022 -- so if you require intermediate context, please refer back to prior updates. There's really only so many different ways I can say the same thing, and I believe at this point, I have exhausted all of them (at least, short of translating into new languages!). Trade safe.
p.s.- I have a son graduating high school this week, and I have family in town for the next couple weeks, so unless there's actually something new to say during that time, the updates will probably be brief. Thanks for your understanding."
ROTFLMAO!
Oops, laughed so hard after sending my last message I shit my pants!
24-hour Live Futures:
https://www.stockmaster.in/spx-500-futures-live.html
That site has a lot of options that may be of some use (along the left and top of the chart, but I've never been interested enough to experiment with them. FWIW, watching that chart for any length of time bores me.
One can select time intervals from 5-min and longer -- list at top of chart.
And there are other options to select. Since I don't use that chart I've never tried to figure out where its time reference is (relative to California).
Found an interesting link while fooling around there:
https://www.tradingview.com/
Last 5 months the DOW had a precise pattern on the 12th of each month. It represented either a reversal right after or an accelerated move in same direction. Seems most of the time it was a reversal. Upward till 6/12 perhaps?
"......there's still nothing to add and, at the market's current pace...."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
The reviews are in! Critics are raving over SPX!
"Annoying and boring." -- Siskel and Ebert
"An insufferable sideways grind." -- The Wall Street Journal
"Is this thing even on?" -- Mike Tyson, just before punching a hole in his screen
The action-devoid sleeper is here! Pre-order your tickets NOW. Don't miss:
SPX: The Revenge of something something whatever zzzzzzzzzz...
Now playing at a theater near you!
So, yeah. Still not a lot to add here. The market has traded sideways since the last update, and possibly since the dawn of time. Here's the updated SPX chart:"
"Er... wait a second. I think that's last week's chart.
Yeah, it is, sorry. HERE'S the updated SPX chart:"
"As we can see on the chart above... hang on, that's the wrong time scale. I didn't mean to use an hourly chart.
Okay, here:"
"And there we have it! In conclusion, there's still nothing to add and, at the market's current pace, there may never be anything to add ever again. Trade safe. "
Looking at May 19th the monthly expiration of options for SPY and the QQQ where today we trading close to 412 SPY and 326 Q's
I see max pain for the 19th at 410 for SPY and 320 for the QQQ
We'll see in the Fullness of time as JIm Q used to say......
"4196 is still the next truly important level..."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Still no change to the intermediate charts (I know, this is surprising after a year in a trading range!), so I'm not going to publish them today, and we'll just focus on the near-term chart:"
"Even on the near-term chart, there's nothing to add to the past two updates, so I simply reiterated them. This is just kind of where we are with this market right now. Don't blame me, I'm just the messenger. Trade safe"
Your question:
"Could you find out why the August high (up more than 20%) didn't end the bear so we could have avoided the drop into October?"
Answer: market prices are a result of all the traders active in the market, buyers and sellers. In other words, the market is a voting machine and merely expresses what all stock traders -- buyers and sellers -- decided between themselves. There is nobody in command that negotiates a better outcome for one side or the other.
An exact opposite of that is a musical orchestra, which always has a conductor (a leader) whose sole desire and purpose is to conduct the orchestra in a manner that creates beautiful music for its entire audience. The conductor is in command of the orchestra.
There is no such leader, no conductor, for the stock market. Every trade is a tug of war between buyers and sellers each seeking to outdo the other.
I won't even try to explain why.
I'm not trying to be rude. I just follow a different process for my stock trading. I'll explain.
Think of the stock market as an overcrowded place where there are day-traders on one end of the room (and who feel as though they have to be in and out of a trade during the same day) and on the far other side of the room there are the Cramer Followers who feel that they have to create a long term portfolio of several highly rated stocks in terms of stability and predictable income, and each of which represents a different large sector thus forming diversity.
I do neither. I look for a single stock which for some (usually justified) reason trades in a relatively narrow and horizontal price range -- meaning their future trading range is known and the stock will stay within that range most of the time over many weeks and months. These stocks, if all you do is buy and sell that specific stock, will allow you to frequently trade in and out of it relatively predictably. I go one step further: in both my individual and retirement accounts, I load up on that one stock then I sell weekly Call options against every share. That sale is immediate income to me for that week. If that stock is assigned at the end of the week (due to the Calls I sold) I will load up on it again on Monday and again sell Call options against all shares that expire on the next Friday. Wash, rinse, repeat week after week after week.
That process works really well!!!
JLS< Could you find out why the August high (up more than 20%) didn't end the bear so we could have avoided the drop into October?
Showed up in my email this morning:
By Kevin Matras
Zacks.com, Executive Vice President
Title: Stocks Closed Mixed, Nasdaq Quietly Exits Their Bear Market
Stocks closed mixed yesterday with the Dow closing modestly lower
while the S&P and Nasdaq closed modestly higher.
The Nasdaq, however, quietly exited their bear market yesterday. From
their bear market low close of 10,213.29 on 12/28/2022, to yesterday's
close of 12,256.92 on 5/8/2023, the Nasdaq is up 20.01%, just above
the 20% threshold needed to officially exit bear market territory and
enter a new bull market."
My comment ...
Whew, sure glad it’s finally over!
LOL ROTF LMAO
I have two sources of futures data.
One is the latest most recent historical data while the other is "current" (changes ever few minutes all day long which makes it more difficult and annoying to watch and to interpret). And while doing that, is it a Future or is it a Historical plus Here-&-Now when all the idiots are trading after-hours or pre-open.?
After studying both of them over a considerable period of time I decided I don't like the current (as it jumps all over the place while being current which makes it more difficult to interpret). It would also account for all the pre-open and after-hours trading, when all the idiots are trading.
I don't want all the "outside normal hours traders" mucking up my data.
JLS,
Futures open at 6:00, it seems you checked before the open and were viewing Fridays data.
Pretzel :
(1) Pretzel presents both a Bull and Bear case.
(2) Pretzel gives both Triggers and Targets
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