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"SPX is inching closer to the ol' extended fifth target zone:"
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"The last two sessions were pretty boring, so still not much to add to the past few weeks of updates. Something akin to a Santa "rally" (or at least a Santa sideways-up move) is possible, if NYA follows this at all:"
"SPX is inching closer to the ol' extended fifth target zone:"
"I mentioned in the last update that I'm leaning toward SPX still needing at least one more 4/5 unwind higher, and that's still out there, as no appropriate 4th has developed since that update. Trade safe."
great charts
each year is different and different stocks benefit.
Tariffs and elimination of dept of education and deportation of those who have to wait 5 years for citizenship or more will matter
so there will labor shortages for small business and higher costs
There are only 2 events in 2025 that will cause concern. One, March debt extension. If Democrats play political football, as i expect they will NOT we can have a hiccup from late March thru April Seems the Democrats are still whining about their loss of control and not panicked YET over the fascist regime and willingness of the public to embrace it.
No later than JULY we will see the result of Trumps master plan. His economic wizardly past makes it a shoe in he destroys this economy completely. Tariffs, war, break from allies towards despots. these I guarantee. Stagflation should be clearly seen, and it will become impossible to ignore. Every measure shows bubble is here already. Massive one. So large not many want to believe it. Buffett has over 325 billion in cash and adding to it. CRAS in 2025 is assured. Is it the fast kind, rare, or the drawn out 3-month kind. I suspect the fast rare kind since this is viewed as 1987, just getting way ahead of ourselves and we will recover quickly.
SO, place the Budget deadline in MARCH as the first shot across the bow. Second one will be spike in INFLATION data due to massive tariffs and trade wars with everyone as Trump extorts payment for doing business here. Given hi genius economic past with his own finances we are assured of disaster upon disaster as the DEBT to GDP will far exceed anything we ever experienced before. Last time we were close to today's debt to GDP was 1942 start of WW II. Maybe start of WW III will exceed it by a mushroom mile.
More Up to come in a Likelihood
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Since last update, SPX confirmed my read that at least one more small 4/5 unwind higher was needed:"
"Due to expanded flat potential back at the 2nd wave, it's possible that no more 4/5s are still needed, but because the latter portion of the 2nd wave looks like a three (it would need to be a five were it an expanded flat), I'm presently leaning toward the idea that there will be another.
NYA discusses the two most obvious bigger picture options (added the red annotation today):"
"Beyond that, still not much to add to the deeper dive updates of the past few weeks, except to note that I just learned that I missed the opportunity (a couple weeks ago) to call out November 19, which is apparently "Have a Bad Day Day." I'll probably forget by this time next year, so, having just learned this useless fact, I felt obligated to share it immediately. Anyway! Trade safe."
Stock Market Commentary 11/29/24
By Lawrence G. McMillan
"The stock market has made new all-time highs this week, both on an intraday and a closing basis. $SPX has done so, and other major indices that have followed include the Dow Jones 30 Industrials ($DJX) and the Russell 2000 ($RUT). The NASDAQ-100 ($NDX) has not quite gotten there this week, after registering new all-time highs earlier in November.
As always, with the market at new all-time highs, there is no formal overhead resistance. But we continue to view the +4Ã¥ "modified Bollinger Band" as a target of sorts. That is currently at 6130 and rising. There is support at 5870, which has been in place for some time now. We view that as an important level, and if $SPX were to close below there, we would abandon our "core" bullish viewpoint on the stock market.
Even so, below that there is further support, both in terms of the bullish island reversal that is still in place (circled on the $SPX chart in Figure 1), as well as the multiple support at 5670. There had been a negative island reversal on the chart, but that gap was filled and eliminated from concern by the rally over the last week.
Equity-only put-call ratios have descended to their yearly lows. That represents an overbought stock market, but it is not a sell signal. For these ratios to generate strong sell signals, they would have to begin to rise sharply and exceed their November highs.
Breadth improved, and the breadth oscillators remain on buy signals. There have been a few unusual days lately, where $SPX is moving in one direction, but breadth is flowing in the other direction. That's not too important in the larger picture, so we continue to view breadth in a positive light.
$VIX has drifted down to near its yearly lows. This is another overbought condition, but it is not a problem for stocks unless $VIX begins to rise sharply. The "spike peak" buy signal of November 6 remains in place.
Overall, this remains a bullish market, and we are maintaining a "core" bullish position as long as $SPX continues to close above 5870. We will add new positions based on newly-confirmed signals, and we continue to roll deeply in-the-money calls up to lock in partial profits and reduce downside risk."
https://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/SPX.JPG?v=1733007159646
https://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21.JPG?v=1733007159646
https://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21_W.JPG?v=1733007159646
https://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/VIX.JPG?v=1733007159646
Stock Market Commentary 11/29/24
By Lawrence G. McMillan
"The stock market has made new all-time highs this week, both on an intraday and a closing basis. $SPX has done so, and other major indices that have followed include the Dow Jones 30 Industrials ($DJX) and the Russell 2000 ($RUT). The NASDAQ-100 ($NDX) has not quite gotten there this week, after registering new all-time highs earlier in November.
As always, with the market at new all-time highs, there is no formal overhead resistance. But we continue to view the +4Ã¥ "modified Bollinger Band" as a target of sorts. That is currently at 6130 and rising. There is support at 5870, which has been in place for some time now. We view that as an important level, and if $SPX were to close below there, we would abandon our "core" bullish viewpoint on the stock market.
Even so, below that there is further support, both in terms of the bullish island reversal that is still in place (circled on the $SPX chart in Figure 1), as well as the multiple support at 5670. There had been a negative island reversal on the chart, but that gap was filled and eliminated from concern by the rally over the last week.
Equity-only put-call ratios have descended to their yearly lows. That represents an overbought stock market, but it is not a sell signal. For these ratios to generate strong sell signals, they would have to begin to rise sharply and exceed their November highs.
Breadth improved, and the breadth oscillators remain on buy signals. There have been a few unusual days lately, where $SPX is moving in one direction, but breadth is flowing in the other direction. That's not too important in the larger picture, so we continue to view breadth in a positive light.
$VIX has drifted down to near its yearly lows. This is another overbought condition, but it is not a problem for stocks unless $VIX begins to rise sharply. The "spike peak" buy signal of November 6 remains in place.
Overall, this remains a bullish market, and we are maintaining a "core" bullish position as long as $SPX continues to close above 5870. We will add new positions based on newly-confirmed signals, and we continue to roll deeply in-the-money calls up to lock in partial profits and reduce downside risk."
https://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/SPX.JPG?v=1733007159646
https://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21.JPG?v=1733007159646
https://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/PC21_W.JPG?v=1733007159646
https://www.optionstrategist.com/sites/default/files/VIX.JPG?v=1733007159646
Here's Why the Small Cap IWM Will Soar Nearly 70% by the End of 2025
November 27, 2024 at 02:11 PM
Tom Bowley
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
"If you want big returns, I'm convinced you'll find them in small caps. When I make bold predictions, and many of you know that I do fairly often, it's usually supported by long-term perspective. Most everyone has a negative bias towards small caps right now, because they've underperformed so badly the past few years. But I use perspective on small caps just as I did in 2022 on the large caps. Let me use the S&P 500 as an example:"
https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/11/27/68227c27-3f20-437e-ac3f-d9e312caad55.jpg
"Do you remember how bullish sentiment was at the end of 2021? We had the most complacent readings EVER on the 253-day SMA of the equity only put call ratio. And we had an "overshoot" on the S&P 500 outside of the secular bull market channel. That left the likelihood of little upside and the potential of plenty of downside to test the "middle" channel level where most corrections and/or cyclical bear markets end. At MarketVision 2022 in January 2022, I discussed the very real possibility of a 20-25% cyclical bear market decline to last 3-6 months and this was a chart that supported my theory. There were other reasons as well, but I'm focused in this article on perspective and the benefits of having long-term perspective and not being overcome by short-term recency bias. We actually saw the cyclical bear market drop 28% and last 9 1/2 months. It wasn't a perfect call, but it was pretty darn solid.
Notice that those tests of the blue-dotted "middle" upslope line are excellent opportunities to jump in for what's likely to follow - a strong uptrend to return back to the upper channel line.
So how does the small cap IWM look right now:"
https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/11/27/ce79abb8-1e2e-429d-a569-8672af8c2249.jpg
"The blue "percentage change" shows 52%, but this is measuring a 4-year period where price action simply follows the bottom of the slope. However, the maroon "percentage change" shows what happens if you increase at a much, more rapid pace from the blue-dotted "middle" upslope line to the upper solid blue upslope line, in this case rising 112% - more than twice the rate if you simply go along for the ride with the slope. I believe the IWM has just begun a very significant rise back towards its upper channel line. I won't be surprised if the IWM hits 400 in 2025, which would represent nearly a 70% return. This type of a move would be no different that what we've seen in the past on both of the above charts.
Again, to make these types of predictions, you have to be willing to ignore what's happened recently (check your recency biases at the door), and focus on what the long-term channel is telling you. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. But I firmly believe small caps will continue the leadership role we've seen of late, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100."
I'm writing a special EB Digest on Friday and highlighting a small stock that I believe could TRIPLE over the next year. Our EB Digest is our FREE newsletter that requires no credit card. You may unsubscribe at any time. To claim this small cap stock on Friday, simply CLICK HERE to sign up for our FREE EB Digest newsletter.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone and happy trading!
Tom
BIGGEST NEWS OF TRUMPS LIFE - Court rules Trump does not have immunity from 2020 election subversion prosecution. I am just kidding. While the lower courts agree that his behavior is NOT immune from prosecution it will be FAST TRACKED to the Supreme Court. You can bet they TAKE IT UP and smash down all arguments ONCE AND FOR ALL! Sedition by the sitting president is perfectly legal and acceptable. In fact, the 6 to 3 decisions will be made in February of 2025 or later.
They already made it clear he has unlimited powers, and any indictment would be futile since unlike all other cases in all the land forever back and forever in the future ONLY a President can be prosecuted without the help of discovery, without the means to giving motive. In other words, the Supreme Court has made the constitution a moot obsolete piece of law in anything that a president does. He is the ultimate power over all.
Let's assume February the Supreme Court takes the case. They will laugh out the argument once and for all. Trump is a GOD Period.
When the ruling comes down in February or March or April Wall Street will surge and surge and surge. One more painful reminder just how insane our Supreme Court is. So insane they are equally compared with Trumps own actions.
A larger and steeper move between now and New year seems assured. End of January thru perhaps start of JULY we will see a Blitzkrieg effect from trump and his fascist backing. Tariffs, deregulation of energy, brokerage, bank restrictions, mass roundup of 11 million with horror stories that will delight his followers. The actual success of deportation would be crawling along, but trump will pretend all is happening at lightning speed. Perception is all that matters. Supreme Court will step in quickly to set straight that the KING has total powers unchecked. He will have fired ever single federal personal without total fealty. He would have destroyed Ukraine with a gift-wrapped bow sent to Putin. Alliances with the evil axis assured and complete by then.
How all this affects PROFITS will be an interesting discussion. I believe in the 5 months of TRUMP control we should see the devastation building. Will it cause a crash? Might have to wait till we get smacked in the face first. Unsure.
I could have just stated HOLIDAY SEASON is ON! His transition team refuses to sign the normal transitional agreement. you know stuff like background checks, receiving graft, selling your position to foreign entities. We already have a MOB Lieutenant putting out his palm for kickbacks to allow their name to be presented to Trump as a possible cabinet pick. This is now run as a Mafia setup. What could possibly go wrong. Oh yeah, if ANYONE doubts my words are FACTS I can guide you to a dozen reports from a dozen news agencies. Or you can just start opening your eyes and ears. i know after a decade that might seem difficult.
The latest POLLS are exactly the same. Support for everything the KING does. Careening towards a fascist nation. When will it translate into a financial disaster like trump own decade of debacles.
".....not much else to do other than keep tracking the uptrend......"
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"SPX finally made a new all-time high, which confirms that the decline was just three waves down (as suspected on Nov. 18) and not an impulsive turn lower::
"I've published a lot of long-term charts over the past week or so, so there really isn't anything to add on that front, but here's the SPX extended fifth chart again anyway:"
"In conclusion, until there's an impulsive turn lower, there's really not much else to do other than keep tracking the uptrend. Trade safe.
Oh, p.s.- I typically take the Friday after Thanksgiving off, since it's a short session and it gives me a bit more uninterrupted time with my family over the holiday without "thinking market thoughts," so I'll likely do that again. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!"
Pre-market setup so far is totally ignoring the day 1 Tariffs. If it holds thru the day we have ourselves a setup for a CRASH later in the 2025 year. The market should also ignore the actual event in late January. What they will not ignore is the after=affect from such a stupid self-destructive policy. The sure way to ignite INFLATION. In fact it is the fastest best way to do so. he is a financial genius. Just look at 10 straight bankruptcy filings.
It will ONLY take today to determine the course of action for minimum of 6 months. If we hold up well today, we have ourselves a merry Christmas.
EXTERNAL EVENTS will break the charts especially from TRUMP. he is our next Pandemic. But like the start of a Pandemic, we ignored it and the consequences. it took an actual DEATH on US SOIL to start the crash. I suspect the same thing here. Actual data showing the dire effect of tariffs. I love his argument to go after Canada, home of the illegals, drug dealers, scum of the earth. He is our own HITLER reincarnated. Hitler was LOVED for years. His policy of the JEW was appreciated. His terror attacks on them for years were accepted. ONLY his losing the war changed their minds.
Trump, like Hitler was obsessed and downright crazy. he could have actually change history and won the war but his own ego and voices in his head made that impossible. This is Trumps downfall as well. OURS will naturally follow once he falls apart.
I can't wait for end of January when he implements all his plans. He has the full backing from the GOP, all republicans, Supreme Court with an iron grip on all government agencies. he also passed laws to intimidate the free press with loss of licenses. Orwell will be so proud. I was called a NUT CASE for a decade as I explained like a kindergarten teacher what to expect. To this very day most still can't see anything is different. Rather they refuse to see. Like a 5 week Pandemic ravaging the land and one death here on our soil woke Wall Street up. I am still amazed at our ability to ignore reality for so long.
I suspect Wall Street will focus on the tax cuts, deregulations, legal graft, and Trumps control over the FED to create tax cuts regardless of the data. The TEST IS ON! Blinders or angst. Tomorrow starts the test.
TRUMP is trying HARD to disrupt this holiday. After his pick for Sec. of Treasury Wall Street cheered. They assumed his stance on Tariffs would change trumps mind. Silly people. Just out of the news comes TRUMP pledging HUGE tariffs for everyone, especially Canada the home of rapist, gangs and illegals. Can't make this stuff up and can't sway his loyalist till the very end.
The PPT should be working overtime to prevent any deep drop during this holiday. I suspect they just don't believe it, Like a Pandemic. Thy want PROOF! No not scientific proof, or words out of Trumps mouth. they want to see BLOOD.
Trump is trying hard to crash this market. Even he will not be able to. He is so misunderstood. People just can't believe the man will do what he says.
Tomorrow is a nice test to see how well Wall Street treats the news of his massive Tariffs. Place your bets. Can External noise change the course of the stock market? Let the GMAE begin. he will slash and burn down this nation and nothing will be standing when he is done. This as Wall Street' sees greed profits deregulation graft and a beautify stock market future as TRUMP destroys it all from within.
I marvel at our ability to repeat the same mistakes and cling to irrational assumptions. Let the GAMES begin. OK maybe not yet. OBTUSE is Wall Street. It will take more than a promise from TRUMP. Funny isn't it.
".....bulls have held all the zones I called out last week, so unless something breaks, there's still nothing for bears to write home about yet."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"The market barely moved on Friday, leaving us in the same position, but I've added a new chart to the mix, via NYA:"
"The pattern above is interesting, because it would line up well with the old long-term extended fifth target for SPX. Of course, keep in mind that if we get there, the fifth could always choose to tack on another extension..."
"INDU continues to bounce from its long-term trend line:"
"COMPQ has been stuck in neutral:"
"Finally, correctly identifying the "three down" inflection zone in SPX a week ago turned out to be quite helpful:"
"In conclusion, bulls have held all the zones I called out last week, so unless something breaks, there's still nothing for bears to write home about yet. Trade safe."
"
I stumbled across your board this morning. I agree with your comments that we seem to be in a very favorable time period, so just let the market keep doing it's thing. I am going to follow your board for a while. Maybe I can be of some value, but I am always looking for ideas.
All my real money is traded from my daily charts and I mostly only trade SPXL and TQQQ. I am currently leveraged to 120%, but since I am trading 3x funds, I still have 57% of my cash in money market funds. What a win-win strategy.
I have a small account that I play around with that I mainly trade my 60min charts.
I am pretty set with how I am trading and have my book of rules that I follow with blinders on, but always like to hear what others have to say who trade pretty much the way I do.
Thanks RCKS..The market right now is still in an up trend..I think it needs to get back below 5850 ish for some possible big down days. Lot of things going on and any one could cause a massive move...So keep positions small and stops tight.
Forget the charts for now. We are in Holiday Season with the prospects of accelerated profits and more tax cuts. We should stay in this state till end of January at the earliest. Manias like this can go on and on. ONLY hard data and policy changes affecting the data will be sufficient to start a possible panic. If INFLATION DATA was to suddenly spike up again that would shorten the move. Wall Street gave their endorsement of TRUMP and i see no reason to doubt their assumptions.
We are likely to extend and extend wave structures till we have a dramatic reversal. With all of trumps built up anger he will implement his new policies immediately. tax cuts, tariffs, 11 million starting deportations, prevent abortion pills, destroying the environment and doing away with all banking restrictions. The speed at which he implements these programs will test the courts and they will fail. Ukraine will be no more within 90 days of our withdrawal. Our alliance established after WW II will be gone within 180 days.
We couldn't see a known Pandemic till it actually killed a person on our shores so why would this be any different. Stagflation is the likely outcome till we get a full-blown Depression. That takes time. Minimum in my estimation if late MAY of 2025 where rumblings could turn into landslides.
I was always thought of as a doom and gloom nut case. The events over the last decade have gone my way on steroids. There is no turning back and no other path left. Just a matter of timing. In that I need help.
"Thus far, we don't have an impulse down, though, either -- so I don't presently have any hard targets until the market either proves it wants to change trend or shows it wants to keep the decline as a three-wave correction...."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"On Monday, I noted that SPX appeared to be only three waves down to 5853, and that low has held all week, leaving the decline still just three waves down."
"On Wednesday, I noted that INDU was facing an interesting test of the blue breakout line, and so far, it's bounced pretty strongly from that support zone:"
"COMPQ has remained range bound, bouncing in between resistance and support lines:"
"In conclusion, still no change from Monday's conclusion, which, in short, was:
Thus far, we don't have an impulse down, though, either -- so I don't presently have any hard targets until the market either proves it wants to change trend or shows it wants to keep the decline as a three-wave correction.
We'll see if anything new happens today or not. Trade safe. "
".....there aren't any more "obvious" waves up still needed, and if the pattern wanted to reverse from here, it's free to do so." Repeat of Monday's opening line, still applies
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"There have been some interesting developments in the charts, so let's get right to them, starting with INDU:"
"Next is the near-term SPX:"
"And finally, COMPQ, which has bounced up to the next potential resistance line:"
"Last update ended with the following:
In conclusion, the markets captured the "one more wave up" that I was leaning toward before the election, so there aren't any more "obvious" waves up still needed, and if the pattern wanted to reverse from here, it's free to do so. Thus far, we don't have an impulse down, though, either -- so I don't presently have any hard targets until the market either proves it wants to change trend or shows it wants to keep the decline as a three-wave correction. I'll be watching closely how this develops over the next few sessions, though.
No change to that yet, so we'll see how it shakes out from here. Trade safe."
COMMON SENSE. Holiday season upon us. The PPT would NEVER allow any damage till next year. The first 90 days of Trumps new term would also be restrictive for any real damage. In fact we only have days before the Holiday officially starts. His promise to keep tax cuts and do away with rules and restriction for banks is already baked into the rally to come. 11 million Secret Police deportation starts on day one, January 6th. Thats will keep everyone happy. The industries that need those people will get indentured slave status to continue their great work. Buffett and old fool that started his divesting of stocks last 12 plus months is a fool. Now that TRUMP is elected, we expand this bubble to include rate cuts from his new Fed Chair, fired administrative workers and generals that Hitler approves of.
We are in the home stretch, and it should be an eye opener. Hyperbolic move now goes straight up from here. Before the end of this week that is.
"........ there aren't any more "obvious" waves up still needed, and if the pattern wanted to reverse from here, it's free to do so. Thus far, we don't have an impulse down, though, either......."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Since last update, SPX captured both its downside targets:"
"COMPQ was rejected soundly at its resistance zone:"
"And NYA continues to show the most bearish long-term scenario:"
"In conclusion, the markets captured the "one more wave up" that I was leaning toward before the election, so there aren't any more "obvious" waves up still needed, and if the pattern wanted to reverse from here, it's free to do so. Thus far, we don't have an impulse down, though, either -- so I don't presently have any hard targets until the market either proves it wants to change trend or shows it wants to keep the decline as a three-wave correction. I'll be watching closely how this develops over the next few sessions, though. Trade safe."