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Anyone keeping an eye on this still? Yesterday I was thinking it was a diamond in the rough. The financial report is supposed to come out tonight, correct?
I got in "down there"(below $4), and hopefully I'll still be here at least through my first year anniversary. The outlook looks good, IMO.
Mike
Is anyone following this stock? It was in the green today (and slowly has been climbing) and projections look pretty good. Thoughts?
FORM 8-K
Item 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement
On December 21, 2010, DynaVox Systems LLC (the “ Borrower ”), DynaVox Intermediate LLC, DynaVox Services Inc., Blink-Twice LLC, Mayer-Johnson LLC, DynaVox International Holdings Inc., and Eye Response Technologies, Inc. (all of which are subsidiaries of DynaVox Inc. (the “ Company ”)) entered into the Third Amendment to Credit Agreement (the “ Amendment ”) with GE Business Financial Services Inc., for itself as a lender and as agent for the several financial institutions from time to time party to the Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement dated as of June 23, 2008, as amended, modified, restated or otherwise supplemented from time to time (the “ Credit Agreement ”), and such other lenders signatories to the Amendment. The Amendment was sought by the Borrower to address the impact of the one time pre-IPO distribution of $10.0 million on the Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio for the 12-month period ending December 31, 2010. The Company is confident that it will be in full compliance with the covenants in the Credit Agreement as of the end of the second quarter of fiscal year ending December 31, 2010.
The Amendment (1) modifies the calculation of the Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio (which is calculated by dividing the sum of cash interest expense (net of interest income), cash taxes paid, scheduled principal payments on all debt, restricted cash distributions and management fees paid to Vestar Capital Partners and other certain pre-IPO owners by operating cash flow) for the 12-month period ending December 31, 2010 to exclude from the definition of restricted cash distributions a $10.0 million distribution made by the Borrower in March 2010; (2) modifies the calculation of the ratios of net senior debt to Adjusted EBITDA and net total debt to Adjusted EBITDA by limiting the ability of the Borrower to net cash and cash equivalents from total debt and senior debt to only any 12-month period in which Adjusted EBITDA for such period is greater than $30.0 million, whereupon the amount of cash and cash equivalents that may be so netted is limited to $5.0 million; and (3) modifies an affirmative covenant relating to information to be provided to the lenders to require the Borrower to provide monthly financial statements of the Company and its subsidiaries within 30 days of the end of each month commencing with the month ending November 30, 2010.
Certain of the lenders under the Amendment, or their affiliates, have provided, and may in the future from time to time provide, certain commercial and investment banking, financial advisory and other services in the ordinary course of business for the Company and its subsidiaries, for which they have in the past and may in the future receive customary fees and commissions.
Date: December 23, 2010
I got in down there, and thus far it looks like the upward move is here to stay. It better be, for I sacrificed a few of my nice divi paying DD to buy them. LOL!
Mike
New 52-week low $3.8 was created today! Sell the pos scam ASAP until
it hits $3 in the coming week. It is still overpriced & overbought!
I don't have any DVOX shares, never had. It's just on my watch list, for now.
Mike
New 52-week low 3.91 was created today! Sell the pos scam ASAP until
it hits $3 in the coming days. DVOX is still overpriced/overbought!
New 52-week low 3.95 was created today! Sell the pos scam ASAP until
it hits 3.2 in the coming days. It is still overpriced & overbought.
You are more generous than the analysts opinion of $2.3:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=DVOX+Analyst+Opinion
Mike
I bet DVOX will drop further to $3.2 then bounce back to $4.8 ~ $6.4
Should crash tomorrow on a surprise loss After Hours: 4.62 -1.20 (-20.62%) Nov 11, 7:59PM EST
Mute Q1, outlook drag DynaVox shares down
Thu Nov 11, 2010 5:53pm EST
* Q1 adj loss $0.04/shr vs est EPS $0.05
* Sales fall 11 pct to $24.3 million
* FY adj profit view 21-27 cents
* Shares sink 20 pct after market
Nov 11 (Reuters) - DynaVox Inc (DVOX.O), which launched an IPO in April, posted a surprise quarterly loss as margins fell on less favorable product mix, along with lower royalties and sales, pulling its shares down 20 percent after the bell.
DynaVox, which makes communication and education products for those with language and learning disabilities, said that softening of demand for both its speech generating devices and software products in the first quarter has continued in the second quarter as well.
For the full year, it sees adjusted profit of 21-27 cents a share. Analysts were looking for 47 cents a share. [ID:nASA01282]
First-quarter net loss came in at $0.5 million, or 5 cents a share. Sales fell 11 percent to $24.3 million, versus market estimates of $24.0 million.
Excluding items, it lost 4 cents. Analysts on an average had expected profit of 5 cents, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
The company's shares, which have more than halved since it completed its IPO on April 27, were trading at $4.66 after the bell. They closed at $5.82 on Thursday on Nasdaq. (Reporting by Krishna N. Das in Bangalore; Editing by Maju Samuel)
www.reuters.com/article/idUSSGE6AA0QY20101111
Should definitely see movement this week as the company will report 1Q 11 on Thursday 11/11 AMC.
Analyst Estimates:
Revs Avg. Estimate: 26.25M
EPS Current Estimate: 0.06 (revised down 33% from 7 days ago @ .09)
(for comparison, 4Q Numbers were EPS .16 on Revs of 33.1)
Upward movement post earnings report assumes company will at least meet estimates and word guidance in a more positive fashion.
Volume hovers around a Float Turnover Ratio of 1 (current 8MA = 0.94) taken from adjusted Float numbers according to finviz.com (yahoo reporting lower)
Chart has been/is currently in a tight Bollinger Band (I term bollie-chute) and has moved into upper band the last 2 sessions. On a Pincher Setup, RSI 14 finally peeked above the 30 line on Friday as well as the ADX 14 appearing to make a more significant move to the down-side.
Possible entry on Monday (duly noting a preferred cap to entry size @ no greater than 1% avg volume) on a movement above $5.74 resistance w/ 1st Profit tgt of $6.40
Gonna get ugly soon IMO.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Law-Offices-of-Howard-G-Smith-bw-2484462760.html?x=0&.v=1
And the sharks come out:
Law Offices of Howard G. Smith Announces Investigation On Behalf of Shareholders of DynaVox Inc.
Symbol Price Change
DVOX 5.4500 +0.0075
Press Release Source: Law Offices of Howard G. Smith On Friday October 1, 2010, 8:30 pm EDT
BENSALEM, Pa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Law Offices of Howard G. Smith announces that it is investigating potential claims on behalf of purchasers of the securities of DynaVox Inc. (“DynaVox” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ:DVOX - News) concerning possible violations of federal securities laws. DynaVox designs, manufactures and distributes electronic and symbol-based augmentative communication equipment, software and services. The Company offers speech generating technology and special education software solutions for individuals with speech, language, physical or learning disabilities.
The investigation concerns allegations that certain statements made by the Company concerning its business and financial prospects were materially false and/or misleading. On September 30, 2010, the Company issued a press release stating that during its first quarter of fiscal 2011, DynaVox “experienced a softening of demand for both its speech generating devices and software products.” As a result, the Company announced, it is withdrawing its previously issued earnings guidance for fiscal year 2011. A subsequent article published by TheStreet.com noted “the weakness in DynaVox is striking given the company just went public in late April, selling upwards of 9 million shares at $15 each. The stock is now down 65% off a high of $19.20 on June 16.”
If you are a shareholder of DynaVox, if you have information or would like to learn more about these claims, or if you wish to discuss these matters or have any questions concerning this announcement or your rights or interests with respect to these matters, please contact Howard G. Smith, Esquire, of Law Offices of Howard G. Smith, 3070 Bristol Pike, Suite 112, Bensalem, Pennsylvania 19020 by telephone at (215) 638-4847, Toll Free at (888) 638-4847, or by email to howardsmith@howardsmithlaw.com, or visit our website at http://www.howardsmithlaw.com.
Nice work. I appreciate your post.
I agree, this is a knee jerk 'over' reaction.
The indicators are also showing short term weakness.
I will be watching this very closely.
Piper Jaffray is out with a research report this morning, where it reiterates its Overweight rating on DynaVox Inc. (NASDAQ: DVOX); it has a $20.00 price target on the stock.
The PJ analysts said that the company’s speech technology line will have a tough comp, adding that speech generating devices and related equipment are roughly 81% of overall DVOX revenues.
The analysts also noted that, despite the difficulties in the US economy over the last 3 years, DVOX “grew revenues at a CAGR of 17% from FY07-FY09. Over the last 9 months revenues were up 34%. In other words, we believe the quality of the products and service, the under-penetrated market, and the increasing marketing push from DVOX have contributed to the counter-intuitive growth.”
As for valuation, the analysts noted, “Our 12-month price target of $20/share assumes a P/E multiple of 31 times, representing the average P/E of the top half of our small cap medtech group with earnings, applied to our CY11 EPS estimate of $0.66/share.”
Perhaps elcheepo-- but I see it as an initial legitimate negative reaction that is over-reaching. It's in the same vein as an over-enthusiastic run up that stretches the fundamental base value.
I think we see a 1-3 session leveling w/ a technical return to the bollinger bands. Additionally, unless you believe as an earlier poster that they are on the brink of bankruptcy (SEC files do not support that suggestion IMO), I see 3 significant events that will then help determine a longer short-term direction:
10/4 (Monday): Company to introduce new speech platform (seen as neutral-positive)
10/19: IPO Lock Out ends (ty for your link to bring this to light -- seen as neutral-negative)
11/11: 1Q Earnings Report (the big question to be answered WRT direction)
I think there will be more downside for the short term.
Thanks for posting that elcheepo Not sure who they are referring to as the "PE holder" -- Vesta Capital Partners or Park Avenue Equity Management perhaps?
This one is very intriguing USC Cowboy Here's my 1st take:
Fundamentals/Storyline: IPO as a Holding Company in Apr that showed excellent growth potential
DynaVox Inc. designs, manufactures, and distributes electronic and symbol-based augmentative communication equipment, software, and services. It offers speech generating technology and special education software solutions for individuals with speech, language, physical, or learning disabilities. ... The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Was/(is?) heavily owned by Institutions/Mutuals
Major Holders Breakdown
% of Shares Held by All Insider and 5% Owners: 20%
% of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 103%
% of Float Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 130%
Number of Institutions Holding Shares: 55
And was quickly added to Russell 2000
Low Floater w/ 6.42 Million against a small OS at 9.38 Million whose trading volume was ~60k, which-- although "thin" -- did equate to an approx 1% Turnover Ratio (my minimum for considering "liquidity").
Started exhibiting signs of trouble in its 4Q Report at the end of August as it missed earnings by .01 (@ .16 -vs- .17 expectation), but more importantly reported revenue growth at just 8.7% when company projections were ~15%.
TA reveals a considerble drop on high volume (> 1 million shares), a subsequent 4 session duration for additional decline/trading outside the lower-bb, a slow developing Pincher (~3 weeks) that eventually regained ~11% off bottom but was denied at mid-bb, and then a week-long decline of 20%.
The current share price state is the result of the company pulling its FY11 guidance as well as "pre-releasing" 1Q revenue weakness. In addition this was followed by an analyst downgrade.
Float Analysis as of 10/1:
Ticker TOR Float 8EMA WF EF EF % Float % Short Short Ratio
DVOX 13.95% 6,420,000 895,440 2,897,644 7,586,032 118.16% 7.13% 4.72
Daily TOR: 54.36%
10/1 Volume: 3,490,000
When the Effective Float (EF) trades above 100% of the Reported Float the shorting begins to move into the realm of Naked Shorting (barring dilution as the culprit which is not suggested in this case). So we now have a heavily-shorted dynamic similar to DGIT ( #msg-54091738 )
Fundamental Attractive #s/Ratios:
P/B= 0.66
P/E= 1.79 -vs- Industry Avg P/E= 14.91
Assume 8% Growth, then PEG= 0.22 -vs- Industry Avg PEG = 0.83
Fundamental Deterrents/Concerns:
Quick Ratio= 1.70
Debt/Equity= 1.45
OCF Ratio= 0.87
Net Total Debt to Adj EBITDA cannot exceed 1.5 or else a mandatory partial prepayment is required to its credit facility. It currently stands at 1.46 as of 4Q and would assume it could eclipse the 1.5 mark depending on how soft sales really are in 1Q. That will become known when they report #s 11/11 AMC.
Back to TA, I expect 3 trading opportunities: (while we wait for the fundamental storyline to shake out)
1.) Snap-back into lower-bb (Intraday trade to watch for in the next 1-3 sessions)
2.) "Over-short" squeeze in the scramble to find shares (Daily trade from this point forward concentrating on Money Flow short-period TA [3 cycle CMF and MFI as well as ChiOsc and PVO])
3.) Normal Pincher opportunity
Keeping an eye on this one, interested and watching for a bottom after PR today regarding lackluster performance and demand.
Would appreciate any DD asembled here as I am in the investigative mode right now.
Any assistance or guidance appreciated during DD period.
Regards,
USC
New 52-week low 7.92 was created today! Sell the pos scam at the bid
ASAP to avoid the CH11 or even CH7 filing in the near future...
On 09/01/2010 the pos scam hit the 52-week low 9.03! Sell at the bid ASAP to avoid the coming bankruptcy filing.
Yesterday the pos scam hit the 52-week low 8.63! Sell at bid ASAP to
avoid the bankruptcy filing in the near future...
New 52-week low 8.25 was created today! Sell the pos scam ASAP to
avoid the CH11 or even CH7 filing in the near future...
Will the pos scam hit the new low $6.6 in the coming days? When will
it stop falling?
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Outstanding Shares: 9M Shares.
Book Value: $13.29 A Share.
The stock is heading onto the new low $6.6 or lower.
Overbought now. Sell ASAP...
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