AI
Saturday, October 02, 2010 4:31:20 PM
This one is very intriguing USC Cowboy 
Here's my 1st take:
Fundamentals/Storyline: IPO as a Holding Company in Apr that showed excellent growth potential
DynaVox Inc. designs, manufactures, and distributes electronic and symbol-based augmentative communication equipment, software, and services. It offers speech generating technology and special education software solutions for individuals with speech, language, physical, or learning disabilities. ... The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Was/(is?) heavily owned by Institutions/Mutuals
Major Holders Breakdown
% of Shares Held by All Insider and 5% Owners: 20%
% of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 103%
% of Float Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 130%
Number of Institutions Holding Shares: 55
And was quickly added to Russell 2000
Low Floater w/ 6.42 Million against a small OS at 9.38 Million whose trading volume was ~60k, which-- although "thin" -- did equate to an approx 1% Turnover Ratio (my minimum for considering "liquidity").
Started exhibiting signs of trouble in its 4Q Report at the end of August as it missed earnings by .01 (@ .16 -vs- .17 expectation), but more importantly reported revenue growth at just 8.7% when company projections were ~15%.
TA reveals a considerble drop on high volume (> 1 million shares), a subsequent 4 session duration for additional decline/trading outside the lower-bb, a slow developing Pincher (~3 weeks) that eventually regained ~11% off bottom but was denied at mid-bb, and then a week-long decline of 20%.
The current share price state is the result of the company pulling its FY11 guidance as well as "pre-releasing" 1Q revenue weakness. In addition this was followed by an analyst downgrade.
Float Analysis as of 10/1:
Ticker TOR Float 8EMA WF EF EF % Float % Short Short Ratio
DVOX 13.95% 6,420,000 895,440 2,897,644 7,586,032 118.16% 7.13% 4.72
Daily TOR: 54.36%
10/1 Volume: 3,490,000
When the Effective Float (EF) trades above 100% of the Reported Float the shorting begins to move into the realm of Naked Shorting (barring dilution as the culprit which is not suggested in this case). So we now have a heavily-shorted dynamic similar to DGIT ( #msg-54091738 )
Fundamental Attractive #s/Ratios:
P/B= 0.66
P/E= 1.79 -vs- Industry Avg P/E= 14.91
Assume 8% Growth, then PEG= 0.22 -vs- Industry Avg PEG = 0.83
Fundamental Deterrents/Concerns:
Quick Ratio= 1.70
Debt/Equity= 1.45
OCF Ratio= 0.87
Net Total Debt to Adj EBITDA cannot exceed 1.5 or else a mandatory partial prepayment is required to its credit facility. It currently stands at 1.46 as of 4Q and would assume it could eclipse the 1.5 mark depending on how soft sales really are in 1Q. That will become known when they report #s 11/11 AMC.
Back to TA, I expect 3 trading opportunities: (while we wait for the fundamental storyline to shake out)
1.) Snap-back into lower-bb (Intraday trade to watch for in the next 1-3 sessions)
2.) "Over-short" squeeze in the scramble to find shares (Daily trade from this point forward concentrating on Money Flow short-period TA [3 cycle CMF and MFI as well as ChiOsc and PVO])
3.) Normal Pincher opportunity
Here's my 1st take: Fundamentals/Storyline: IPO as a Holding Company in Apr that showed excellent growth potential
DynaVox Inc. designs, manufactures, and distributes electronic and symbol-based augmentative communication equipment, software, and services. It offers speech generating technology and special education software solutions for individuals with speech, language, physical, or learning disabilities. ... The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Was/(is?) heavily owned by Institutions/Mutuals
Major Holders Breakdown
% of Shares Held by All Insider and 5% Owners: 20%
% of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 103%
% of Float Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 130%
Number of Institutions Holding Shares: 55
And was quickly added to Russell 2000
Low Floater w/ 6.42 Million against a small OS at 9.38 Million whose trading volume was ~60k, which-- although "thin" -- did equate to an approx 1% Turnover Ratio (my minimum for considering "liquidity").
Started exhibiting signs of trouble in its 4Q Report at the end of August as it missed earnings by .01 (@ .16 -vs- .17 expectation), but more importantly reported revenue growth at just 8.7% when company projections were ~15%.
TA reveals a considerble drop on high volume (> 1 million shares), a subsequent 4 session duration for additional decline/trading outside the lower-bb, a slow developing Pincher (~3 weeks) that eventually regained ~11% off bottom but was denied at mid-bb, and then a week-long decline of 20%.
The current share price state is the result of the company pulling its FY11 guidance as well as "pre-releasing" 1Q revenue weakness. In addition this was followed by an analyst downgrade.
Float Analysis as of 10/1:
Ticker TOR Float 8EMA WF EF EF % Float % Short Short Ratio
DVOX 13.95% 6,420,000 895,440 2,897,644 7,586,032 118.16% 7.13% 4.72
Daily TOR: 54.36%
10/1 Volume: 3,490,000
When the Effective Float (EF) trades above 100% of the Reported Float the shorting begins to move into the realm of Naked Shorting (barring dilution as the culprit which is not suggested in this case). So we now have a heavily-shorted dynamic similar to DGIT ( #msg-54091738 )
Fundamental Attractive #s/Ratios:
P/B= 0.66
P/E= 1.79 -vs- Industry Avg P/E= 14.91
Assume 8% Growth, then PEG= 0.22 -vs- Industry Avg PEG = 0.83
Fundamental Deterrents/Concerns:
Quick Ratio= 1.70
Debt/Equity= 1.45
OCF Ratio= 0.87
Net Total Debt to Adj EBITDA cannot exceed 1.5 or else a mandatory partial prepayment is required to its credit facility. It currently stands at 1.46 as of 4Q and would assume it could eclipse the 1.5 mark depending on how soft sales really are in 1Q. That will become known when they report #s 11/11 AMC.
Back to TA, I expect 3 trading opportunities: (while we wait for the fundamental storyline to shake out)
1.) Snap-back into lower-bb (Intraday trade to watch for in the next 1-3 sessions)
2.) "Over-short" squeeze in the scramble to find shares (Daily trade from this point forward concentrating on Money Flow short-period TA [3 cycle CMF and MFI as well as ChiOsc and PVO])
3.) Normal Pincher opportunity
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