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Should crash tomorrow on a surprise loss 
After Hours: 4.62 -1.20 (-20.62%) Nov 11, 7:59PM EST
Mute Q1, outlook drag DynaVox shares down
Thu Nov 11, 2010 5:53pm EST
* Q1 adj loss $0.04/shr vs est EPS $0.05
* Sales fall 11 pct to $24.3 million
* FY adj profit view 21-27 cents
* Shares sink 20 pct after market
Nov 11 (Reuters) - DynaVox Inc (DVOX.O), which launched an IPO in April, posted a surprise quarterly loss as margins fell on less favorable product mix, along with lower royalties and sales, pulling its shares down 20 percent after the bell.
DynaVox, which makes communication and education products for those with language and learning disabilities, said that softening of demand for both its speech generating devices and software products in the first quarter has continued in the second quarter as well.
For the full year, it sees adjusted profit of 21-27 cents a share. Analysts were looking for 47 cents a share. [ID:nASA01282]
First-quarter net loss came in at $0.5 million, or 5 cents a share. Sales fell 11 percent to $24.3 million, versus market estimates of $24.0 million.
Excluding items, it lost 4 cents. Analysts on an average had expected profit of 5 cents, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
The company's shares, which have more than halved since it completed its IPO on April 27, were trading at $4.66 after the bell. They closed at $5.82 on Thursday on Nasdaq. (Reporting by Krishna N. Das in Bangalore; Editing by Maju Samuel)
www.reuters.com/article/idUSSGE6AA0QY20101111
Should definitely see movement this week as the company will report 1Q 11 on Thursday 11/11 AMC.
Analyst Estimates:
Revs Avg. Estimate: 26.25M
EPS Current Estimate: 0.06 (revised down 33% from 7 days ago @ .09)
(for comparison, 4Q Numbers were EPS .16 on Revs of 33.1)
Upward movement post earnings report assumes company will at least meet estimates and word guidance in a more positive fashion.
Volume hovers around a Float Turnover Ratio of 1 (current 8MA = 0.94) taken from adjusted Float numbers according to finviz.com (yahoo reporting lower)
Chart has been/is currently in a tight Bollinger Band (I term bollie-chute) and has moved into upper band the last 2 sessions. On a Pincher Setup, RSI 14 finally peeked above the 30 line on Friday as well as the ADX 14 appearing to make a more significant move to the down-side.
Possible entry on Monday (duly noting a preferred cap to entry size @ no greater than 1% avg volume) on a movement above $5.74 resistance w/ 1st Profit tgt of $6.40
Perhaps elcheepo-- but I see it as an initial legitimate negative reaction that is over-reaching. It's in the same vein as an over-enthusiastic run up that stretches the fundamental base value.
I think we see a 1-3 session leveling w/ a technical return to the bollinger bands. Additionally, unless you believe as an earlier poster that they are on the brink of bankruptcy (SEC files do not support that suggestion IMO), I see 3 significant events that will then help determine a longer short-term direction:
10/4 (Monday): Company to introduce new speech platform (seen as neutral-positive)
10/19: IPO Lock Out ends (ty for your link to bring this to light 
-- seen as neutral-negative)
11/11: 1Q Earnings Report (the big question to be answered WRT direction)
Thanks for posting that elcheepo Not sure who they are referring to as the "PE holder" -- Vesta Capital Partners or Park Avenue Equity Management perhaps?
This one is very intriguing USC Cowboy Here's my 1st take:
Fundamentals/Storyline: IPO as a Holding Company in Apr that showed excellent growth potential
DynaVox Inc. designs, manufactures, and distributes electronic and symbol-based augmentative communication equipment, software, and services. It offers speech generating technology and special education software solutions for individuals with speech, language, physical, or learning disabilities. ... The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Was/(is?) heavily owned by Institutions/Mutuals
Major Holders Breakdown
% of Shares Held by All Insider and 5% Owners: 20%
% of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 103%
% of Float Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 130%
Number of Institutions Holding Shares: 55
And was quickly added to Russell 2000
Low Floater w/ 6.42 Million against a small OS at 9.38 Million whose trading volume was ~60k, which-- although "thin" -- did equate to an approx 1% Turnover Ratio (my minimum for considering "liquidity").
Started exhibiting signs of trouble in its 4Q Report at the end of August as it missed earnings by .01 (@ .16 -vs- .17 expectation), but more importantly reported revenue growth at just 8.7% when company projections were ~15%.
TA reveals a considerble drop on high volume (> 1 million shares), a subsequent 4 session duration for additional decline/trading outside the lower-bb, a slow developing Pincher (~3 weeks) that eventually regained ~11% off bottom but was denied at mid-bb, and then a week-long decline of 20%.
The current share price state is the result of the company pulling its FY11 guidance as well as "pre-releasing" 1Q revenue weakness. In addition this was followed by an analyst downgrade.
Float Analysis as of 10/1:
Ticker TOR Float 8EMA WF EF EF % Float % Short Short Ratio
DVOX 13.95% 6,420,000 895,440 2,897,644 7,586,032 118.16% 7.13% 4.72
Daily TOR: 54.36%
10/1 Volume: 3,490,000
When the Effective Float (EF) trades above 100% of the Reported Float the shorting begins to move into the realm of Naked Shorting (barring dilution as the culprit which is not suggested in this case). So we now have a heavily-shorted dynamic similar to DGIT ( #msg-54091738 )
Fundamental Attractive #s/Ratios:
P/B= 0.66
P/E= 1.79 -vs- Industry Avg P/E= 14.91
Assume 8% Growth, then PEG= 0.22 -vs- Industry Avg PEG = 0.83
Fundamental Deterrents/Concerns:
Quick Ratio= 1.70
Debt/Equity= 1.45
OCF Ratio= 0.87
Net Total Debt to Adj EBITDA cannot exceed 1.5 or else a mandatory partial prepayment is required to its credit facility. It currently stands at 1.46 as of 4Q and would assume it could eclipse the 1.5 mark depending on how soft sales really are in 1Q. That will become known when they report #s 11/11 AMC.
Back to TA, I expect 3 trading opportunities: (while we wait for the fundamental storyline to shake out)
1.) Snap-back into lower-bb (Intraday trade to watch for in the next 1-3 sessions)
2.) "Over-short" squeeze in the scramble to find shares (Daily trade from this point forward concentrating on Money Flow short-period TA [3 cycle CMF and MFI as well as ChiOsc and PVO])
3.) Normal Pincher opportunity
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Outstanding Shares: 9M Shares.
Book Value: $13.29 A Share.
The stock is heading onto the new low $6.6 or lower.
Overbought now. Sell ASAP...
AI
