Donut Shop

[xe2dy]

NAV's trading method, 75% price...

"As for the technical aspects of trading systems, i have experimented on pretty much all kinds of momentum indicators, price based strategies and internals( for about 6 years using Tradestation and Amibroker). For my style of trading (hourly timeframe and less), i did not find much success with internals like A/D line, NYMO, NAMO, Breadth oscillators, VIX, TRIN etc. Too much of conflicts and too many good trades missed because of non-confirmations from them. My success came when i started trading momentum indicators. But trading momentum without due respect to context (or trend) cost me in terms of overall win/loss ratio. Traders-talk helped me a big way in understanding the importance of underlying trend. Watching folks fight the trend in traders-talk was an eye-opener, not to mention i was also a part of that crowd at some point. I then incorporated trend rules in my system using momentum methods. My success rate went higher. But i still missed some great trades because of non-confirmation of trend using my momo indicators. When a high amplitude move occurs and the pivots get wide apart, momo indicators take a lot of time to confirm sharp reversals in trend. There are many other situations where momo indicators fails to confirm trends. Finally to me the holy grail was defining the trend purely using price with my own rules, based on my observation of the price over a decade. Now my definition of trend is based on pure price, Entry trigger is based on one indicator, Stop is based on pure price, Exit is based on pure price. In other words 75% of my system is purely based on price. Only for the entry, i use a indicator based trigger. I am happy with my current system and have now pretty much stopped developing systems and focussing on trading and execution. It took me 8 solid years to settle with a system that i could fully trust and become consistent. It's one of the toughest professions in the world without a question."

[euterpe1]

Thanks for posting.

[xe2dy]

LONGTERM S&P chart

[xe2dy]

Ron Walker on futures...

7/28 Headlines + Understanding Futures

"Many brokers offer future contracts. The emini is a smaller version of the larger futures contract. Currently you can go long or short on a contract for $4375 per contract. Each point that the S&P 500 futures move is worth 50 points, and say the S&P 500 is at 1354. So by taking going short on one contract I control $67,700 (price of S&P 1354 X 50 = 67,700). So futures are heavily leveraged. I'm only having to come up with 6.5 % of the position $4375 is approximately 6.5 % of $67,700. So the advantage is that you can control a large position sized with very little money.

Taking several contracts before a huge decline can add up to a handsome profit in a short amount of time. Although I don't take a position all at once, I accumulate as it proves to be correct. If I'm going to short 3 contracts, I start with one and add a second if it proves correct, and then another after that.

Say I take 5 contracts and the market drops 150 points, like it did from the March high to the June low. The trade would produce a 37,500 profit (150 points X 50 = 7,500 profit per contract X 5 contracts = 37,500.

Futures are very risky. You don't want to play futures until you fully understand them. It takes a lot of experience to trade them. So I would suggest reading some good books on the subject. I like trading futures for dummies. It is well written. I offer this at my book store.

I use our swing trade and momentum signals to trigger my trading signals for futures. That helps keep me on the right side of the trade. Timing is everything with futures because they trade almost around the clock.

To look at a futures chart, the symbol is /ES. You can only see it at a site that offers that data. Think or Swim through Ameritrade offers these charts and allows you to trade them. Remember, futures trade nearly 24/7 so there are price fluctuations while the market is closed. Futures close at 4:15 p.m. EDT on Friday, and then reopen at 6 p.m on Sunday, other than that they trade nearly around the clock, only stopping for a few breaks."

[xe2dy]

SemiBizz post on volume...


"We've seen a choppy uptrend (per Eminimee) from the early June Lows in the SPX and rallied from 1266 to nearly 1390, but on very light summer trading volume. Now we see this year after year in the markets and forecasting based on indicators during this timeframe can be very tricky. Since we use PRIMARY INDICATORS of PRICE and VOLUME, we have learned not to take any of the action during these summer trading periods too seriously, because of the light volume.

Now let's look at how light volume plays havoc with indicators. We have everything from "Hindenburg Omens" to MCO Breakouts, to so-called "Thrust" indicators. What you end up with is choppy markets. Now the volume people all understand this, because they focus directly on the volume and understand how light volume creates inequities in price and you end up with the "choppy" trend.

Here's the analogy I use in trying to help people understand this. Some of us are pilots here, they understand it. On an airplane we have a device that sits on the wing called a "Pitot tube". This tube is used to measure the airflow, based on that airflow we get data that translates into instruments like airspeed for example. One of the things on your check list before you even enter the cockpit is to check that pitot tube. You see when there is even a partial blockage into that pitot tube it distorts the data. When bad data is transmitted to the instruments, you get corrupted indications. When you get bad indications, you take the wrong actions, when you take wrong actions based bad indicators, you get potentially disastrous results and can crash into the ground or things like mountains and buildings (or in this case a crash of your trading accounts). So when we have a reduced flow of volume, we see inequities in the market, when we see inequities in the market, indicators can get stretched on inequitable data as operators (F'eds) can influence markets under light volume conditions (like buying the futures market overnight or rigging the bond markets) and until STRONG VOLUME comes into the market these conditions persist. When these conditions persists we see BEARISH UPTHRUSTS in the market, and that brings us back to summertime light volume, extreme indications that need to be filtered for the trading environment and why... per Eminmee - we see "choppy" rallies.

Now the period of light volume summer trading should be ending in the near time frame... which brings me back to AUGUSTS. FIRST, lt's reference... THE LAST MONTH OF HIGHEST VOLUME AUGUST 2011, the last week of highest volume AUGUST 2011. This is still fresh, we all remember the events associated with the US Downgrade and our shameful Washington melodrama.

Now let's look at August 2007, at the time it was the ALL TIME MONTHLY HIGHEST VOLUME, and it was the 1370 low ahead of the November 2007 - 1576 ALL TIME high... 206 pts in just 3 months.

Now let's look at August 2008, a very quiet month on unusually light volume and just very sideways, the high for that month at 1313 which was the high of the BEAR MARKET LOW leg to 666. August 2008 was the "CALM BEFORE THE STORM" as what was normally supposed to be a bias UP Election Year into October, turned into the BIGGEST CRASH OF ALL TIME.

So my point pretty simple here looking ahead. We should see stronger volume come into the market per seasonal trends, but THE ONE EXCEPTION is a month like we had in 2008, when the volume did not come and the market went into "wait and see" mode - sideways on light volume. If we don't see MUCH STRONGER VOLUME, and this market goes into indecisive mode, WATCH OUT. OTHERWISE, expect volume to pick up dramatically, and you don't have to stick your neck out, because HISTORY is ON YOUR SIDE. You can wait for TREND CHANGE or CONFIRMATION based on just one indicator as long as we can still trust it and that is VOLUME. History says if you get it wrong, you are going to be VERY WRONG, and if you get this right you are going to be VERY RIGHT.

When stronger volume comes into the market, you will also see more robust readings from your indicators, in the meantime... don't get CHOPPED."

[xe2dy]

FXP short China th'ks to ronkw at TT

[xe2dy]

MSS Charts

[xe2dy]

NYMO / TLT






Thanks to redfoliage2 at TT

[xe2dy]

AmericanBulls Rules

This section covers the daily part of this website. For Weekly Support please click on the “Weekly” button above the top menu bar.

About This Site

This site analyzes approximately 15000 securities in the North American Stock Markets on daily basis using end of day data. The job accomplished in the background is immense. The data for all the stocks is downloaded and checked for false and suspicious data. The filtered data is then analyzed by a very sophisticated algorithm that issues daily signals. The commentaries are automatically generated for each signal and are revised in case of signal failures. All of this is done in a couple of hours after the closing bell.

The job performed in the background is very complex but presentation of the results is simple and user friendly. There are six trading signals posted. These are BUY-IF, BUY CONFIRMED, SELL-IF, SELL CONFIRMED, HOLD and WAIT. The signals are accompanied by daily commentaries. A multiple factor weighting scheme assign stars ranging between zero and five to all the stocks. The average success of five star stocks is a very impressive 90.1%. Other important features of the site are portfolio tracking, stock scanning, and two-year signal history, all of which are explained below.

Most of this section of the site including the signals as well as the commentaries is open to the public and is free of charge. However, access to star ratings, portfolio tracking and stock scanning are membership privileges.

The Philosophy

The philosophy shaping the signal system stems from our experiences which extend across quite a few years. This is not a trend following system. It emphasizes the identification of reversal points and is able to generate significant profits even in sideways and bearish markets. The essential tool used for this purpose is the Japanese candlestick patterns. The algorithm is able to recognize 91 different candlestick formations with high precision. It identifies relevant candlesticks applicable to each security on a daily basis, explains the patterns shortly and generates a brief candlestick commentary. Interested investors may visit our educational website www.candlesticker.com for thorough information about each pattern.

This site transforms the investor into a dynamic and vital element of the trading system in order to cope with the speed and volatility of the market. This is a feature unique only to this site. To accomplish this, pattern based bullish and bearish alerts are issued. Alerts can be confirmed only under certain pre-defined conditions. The task of the investor is to confirm the validity of these conditions in the next day and then go long or short only in case of confirmation. The Signals section explains this process in more detail.

There is no fundamental analysis on this site. You won’t find balance sheets, news, experts, comments, and gossip here, distractions that are conducive to manipulation and wrong interpretation. The aim is to create a truly objective system with no human interference at all (even from us). The system prevents interference of human emotions with trading decisions.

The Signals

BUY-IF and SELL-IF are conditional pre-signals(alerts) generated on the basis of daily candlestick patterns. They are posted for the next day's trading. Traders should consider the signals as confirmed and place their orders only if the market action in the next day proves that the alert generating pattern is confirmed.

There are three specific and well defined rules of confirmation for the pre-signals. Each of these confirmation rules is associated with pre-defined and definite price benchmarks. The confirmation rules and price benchmarks applicable the next day are explained in detail in the daily commentaries. The investor's job is to determine whether any of the three confirmation rules is satisfied by comparing the price activity on the confirmation day with the benchmarks. If the investor is convinced about the validity of the confirmation, he/she must place the orders without waiting until the following day. The system frequently (in the absence of negating patterns) waits one more day, thus allowing a second chance of confirmation. If the pattern is still not confirmed, then the conditional signals should be taken as null and void and should be ignored.

BUY CONFIRMED and SELL CONFIRMED are post-signals confirming the conditional signals. They show that the pattern is confirmed. They are actually a warning and a last chance for traders to place their orders. If investors are unable to monitor the prices during the confirmation day, they may wait to see if the BUY-IF or SELL-IF alert has been transformed or not into a BUY CONFIRMED or SELL CONFIRMED in the system. However by doing so, investors may make their trades at less advantageous prices.

HOLD comes after a BUY CONFIRMED and stays until the next confirmed SELL signal. It urges investors to keep their long positions as long as the HOLD tag stays.

WAIT comes after a SELL CONFIRMED and stays until the next confirmed BUY signal. Investors are urged to keep their cash positions as long as the WAIT tag stays.

The system monitors the performance of each signal after it is issued. The investors are notified by revised commentaries in case of slight signal failures. If signal errors reach to intolerable levels, commentaries are revised again to accommodate a special warning.

A transparent history of the confirmed signals is given for each stock and index. Wherever applicable, the history is given for the last two years. The success and failure of the signals are clearly shown with checks and cross signs. Moreover, investors can also see what has happened to a $100 invested two years ago and following signal based trading. The buying and selling rates in the history table are price benchmarks used for confirmation. Consequently, the signal history reflects the prices at which an investor acting on the basis of signals can genuinely buy or sell. The gains reported in the history table are downward adjusted as -0.2% per trade, considering the impact of broker commissions and missed benchmark prices under the assumption of trades above $10K. The possible positive effects of potential short sales and cash interest gains are neglected.

Members Area

Our members enjoy certain privileges in return for a modest fee. These privileges are portfolio tracking, stock scanning, and access to the stock star ratings.

Members can create and track their own portfolios. When the portfolio button on the members’ daily home page is clicked, an empty page opens. Adding a stock to a portfolio is easy. It is sufficient to go to the page of any stock and click on the “Add to Portfolio” button. A click on the “Remove from Portfolio” button on the stock page deletes this stock from the portfolio. The day’s signal, previous signal, gain/loss since last signal and star rating is reported for each stock on the portfolio page.

Stars are assigned to all the stocks on the basis of a multiple factoring scheme according to percentage gain in the last two years, in the last three months, signal hit ratio, volume and beta value. Stocks below a certain score are not rated and get no stars. The highest rating is five stars. The average success rate is 33.9% for unrated stocks, 80.3% for rated stocks and 90.1% for five star stocks.

Stock Scanning is a very effective and convenient tool that enables the members to scan the stocks with respect to the market, currently posted signal, star rating and volume levels. Simply select a market (e.g. AMEX) and then select a signal (e.g. BUY-IF). You can narrow the scope of your scan by selecting an appropriate star rating, e.g. only four and more (4+) stars, and volume (e.g. only stocks with a volume over 10 million). You will then instantly be provided with a list of all stocks satisfying your criteria (all the stocks in AMEX with a BUY-IF signal, a volume over 10 million,and a rating of four stars and above). To select multiple signals at once, hold down the Ctrl key while highlighting the desired signals.

Using This Site

The home page is the introduction page. The weekly button at the upper left corner must be used to access the weekly home page. Each stock has one daily and one weekly page. The home page displays the closing prices of the major North American exchanges and a table of suggested stocks. Americanbulls follows the stocks in NYSE, AMEX, NASDAQ, OTC, TSX and CDNX. The list shows four recommended stocks from each with BUY CONFIRMED, BUY-IF, SELL-IF and SELL CONFIRMED signals (from top to bottom respectively).

Navigation through the site is by use of the menu buttons on the top menu bar. A click on a stock exchange button opens that exchange's page. Note the alphabetical menu in the rightmost column of this page. Select any letter in this list. Clicking on this letter displays a list of all stocks starting with this letter and covered by the aforementioned exchange. A click on any stock ticker in this list opens the page of this stock. The list of indices is reached by clicking on the Indices button on the top menu bar. The page lists all U.S and Canadian indices with daily values and signals. A click on any ticker on the indices list opens the page of that index. On all index and stock pages you will find the vertical alphabetical menu of the relevant stock exchange.

A stock page displays the closing price, the candlestick pattern, the signal, a concise explanation about the interpretation of the pattern and the two year signal history of the stock. A detailed commentary explains what should be done and makes recommendations for the next day. A detailed quote for the stock can be found at the bottom of the page.

Rules of Confirmation

There are three symmetric confirmation criteria for BUY-IF and SELL-IF alerts. The investor is expected to monitor the market and check by himself/herself if any of these criteria hold or not on the confirmation day.

A BUY-IF signal is confirmed and turns into a BUY CONFIRMED signal by one of the three following conditions:

The market opens with an upward gap (an opening price above the previous close) signaling a bullish sentiment. The benchmark is the opening price. A confirmation is valid if the day’s prices stay above this benchmark. The pattern of this confirmation can be defined as a white candlestick with an upward gap.

The market opens at a level either equal to or below the previous close. The benchmark is the closing price of the previous day. A confirmation is valid if the day’s prices stay above this benchmark. The pattern of this confirmation can be defined as a white candlestick closing above the previous close.

The market opens with a big downward gap (an opening price way below the previous close) suggesting a very bearish day in this rarely observed case. However, the prices turn up and the day ends with a long white candlestick that still closes below the previous day’s close. The benchmark is the closing price of the long white candlestick. The pattern of this confirmation can be defined as a long white candlestick closing below the previous close.

If one of these conditions is not satisfied, the BUY-IF alert remains valid without confirmation and three confirmation criteria are sought in the following day. The only exception is a long black candlestick, which makes the signal void and invalid automatically without further search. If there is still no confirmation in the following day, the alerts are void and invalid regardless of the following day’s pattern and the search is terminated.

On the other hand, a SELL-IF signal is confirmed and turns into a SELL CONFIRMED signal by one of the following conditions:

The market opens with a downward gap (an opening price below the previous close) signaling a bearish sentiment. The benchmark is the opening price. A confirmation is valid if the day’s prices stay below the benchmark. The pattern of this confirmation can be defined as a black candlestick with a downward gap.

The market opens at a level, equal to or above the previous close. The benchmark is the closing price of the previous day. A confirmation is valid if the day’s prices stay below the benchmark. The pattern of this confirmation can be defined as a black candlestick closing below the previous close.

The market opens with a big upward gap (an opening price way above the previous close) suggesting a very bullish day in this rarely observed case. However, the prices turn down and the day ends with a long black candlestick that still closes above the previous day’s close. The benchmark is the closing price of the long black candlestick. The pattern of this confirmation is a long black candlestick closing above the previous close.

If one of these conditions is not satisfied, the SELL-IF alert remains valid without confirmation and three confirmation criteria are sought in the following day. The only exception is a long white candlestick which makes the signal void and invalid automatically without further search. If there is still no confirmation in the following day, the alerts are void and invalid regardless of the following day’s pattern and the search is terminated.

[xe2dy]

Thanks to FIB1618

"I'd certainly be pleased to take a look at your short term timing evidence, tools, or whatever you may want to offer Fib."

In no particular order:

1) NYSE Bond, Preferred, and Specialty issue A/D lines at all time highs as of Friday.

2) NYSE and NASDAQ breadth MCO's showing divergent "oversold" levels on the Stochastic.

3) Put buying very high with an ISEE 65 reading on Friday.

4) Breadth MCSUM's all showing a lack of selling during this one week pause.

5) All of the breadth MCO's are at or near their zero lines suggesting that one side is about to take control.

6) Many small point changes on the MCO's suggest a large move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions.

7) NYSE Open 10 Trin at "oversold" levels.

There's more, but there's no sense in beating an already wounded bear.

Fib

[xe2dy]

Spices / Foods to AVOID

* Spices and herbs have real medicinal properties. Study after study shows the benefits of distinct herbs and spices. For example, one 2003 trial of 60 people with type 2 diabetes reported that consuming as little as two teaspoons of cinnamon daily for six weeks reduced blood-glucose levels significantly. It also improved blood cholesterol and triglyceride levels, perhaps because insulin plays a key role in regulating fats in your body.



Choose flavor over blandness every time, and try to incorporate these specific herbs and spices into your diet if you have the following health concerns:

* rosemary and basil for their anti-inflammatory power

* cumin and sage for their dementia-fighting power

* cayenne and cinnamon for their obesity-fighting power

* coriander and cinnamon for their sugar regulating powers

* lemon grass, nutmeg, bay leaves and saffron for their calming effects on your mood

* turmeric for its cancer fighting power

* oregano for its fungus-beating power

* garlic, mustard seed and chicory for their heart-pumping power

* basil and thyme for their skin-saving power

* turmeric, basil, cinnamon, thyme, saffron, and ginger for their immune-boosting power

* coriander, rosemary, cayenne, allspice and black pepper for their depression-busting power
__________________________________________________________________

Foods to AVOID to Keep Your Mind Sharp

A healthy diet is about more than keeping yourself fit and free of heart disease, wrinkles and impotence (yes, all are related to food!). It’s about preserving your memory, too.

For instance, eating high amounts of saturated fat--more than four grams in an hour--can raise the levels of bad cholesterol in your blood, which can stick to your arteries, and, even worse, turns on inflammatory genes that result in those wrinkles, poor orgasm quality, and you got it, that gunk in your brain that makes your memory be less than it is now.

The same arterial plaque buildup from this saturated fat--we call it a food felon--that leads to heart disease is a major culprit for vascular dementia--when the brain neurons become inflamed or don't get enough oxygen and blood flow. Inflammation and lack of oxygen (resulting from that donut or sugary soda) result in accelerated memory loss.

This gives serious meaning to the phrase "eating to forget."

Poor food choices cause poor cognitive functioning: the eight southern states in America that make up the "Stroke Belt" also have higher incidences of obesity and and greater chance of dementia. Of course, many factors are at play when it comes to developing dementia, but lifestyle factors like a high saturated fat diet (from four-legged animal fat, two legged animal skin, palm and coconut oil), coupled with little physical activity, are certainly big contributors to memory problems as well as wrinkles, orgasm decay and heart attacks.

A recent study of healthy adults and adults with mild cognitive impairment tested out the effects of two diets. One was the "high diet," which was high in saturated fat (at least 25 percent of the diet) and simple carbohydrates (glycemic index greater than 70). The other was a "low diet," which was low in saturated fat (less than 7 percent of the diet) with a fewer simple carbs (glycemic index less than 55).

Not surprisingly, the low (low in the food felons) diet improved or made the levels of three important markers of health better for you.

Firstly, this diet was associated with decreased plasma lipids (read: less lousy or bad cholesterol). Secondly, the low diet was linked with lower insulin levels. Current research is looking at an optimal insulin dose to help cognitive functioning in people with mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease.

Lastly, the low in food felons diet lowered CSF F2-isoprostane concentrations, which is a fancy way of saying it lessened the biomarkers of free radical injury, a signal of oxidative damage to, or damaging inflammation in, your central nervous system (the brain and spinal cord).

What does this all mean for the bigger picture? After just one month of the low saturated fat/low carbs diet, "visual memory" improved for healthy adults and adults with cognitive impairment. This was a small study of 49 subjects, but the implications have big promise for your enjoyment of life and brain functioning!

Starting today, what can you do? Look out for the five food felons, which are guaranteed to age your brain and body. We like to kick the felons totally out, but truth be told, the felons don't have to be exiled from your diet--they just have to be put under very close watch.

Here's a quick review of how they can age you, so you can steer clear:

1) Trans fat: Look out for "partially hydrogenated vegetable oils." Trans fat alters metabolic processes and hardens your arteries. How much to have? Zilch!

2) Saturated fat: Leads to the buildup of fatty tissue on the inner linings of your arteries and turns on inflammatory genes. How much to have? No more than 4 grams per hour.

3) Added sugar: Excess sugar causes the proteins in your body to function improperly, aging your arterial system. How much to have? Main dishes and desserts should contain no more than 4 grams of added sugar per serving. Side dishes should contain no more than 2 grams of added sugars per serving. Total should be less than 4 grams added sugar per hour.

4) Syrups: All syrups. Not just that high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS)--the man-made sugar that does the same things as sugar--all syrups, like all added sugars increase the risk of dysfunctional proteins, obesity and metabolic syndrome. Be wary of maple and malt syrups, as well. How much to have? Stay away! In total, you want to keep you added sugar count to less than 24 grams, or 6 teaspoons per day , and less than (when combined with added sugars) 4 grams of added sugar an hour.

5) Any grain but 100-percent whole grain: Whole grains contain a lot of fiber, which helps preventing arterial aging. How much to have? Nada, Never have any--why age unnecessarily? Why forget what your ideal hunk looked like? Anytime you can swap simple carbohydrates for complex carbs with 100-percent whole grain, go ahead!

[xe2dy]

Charts

[xe2dy]

RD and bonds,

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/lofiversion/index.php/t136335.html

[xe2dy]

TICK by RD

"Mark Cook used to say that TICK was like a rubber band in that it would stretch and stretch, but eventually snap back.
You don't know when, but you need to be ready when it does."

[xe2dy]

NAV's thoughts on trading...

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 07, 2011
No more blog updates
Last update for a while: Breakout above SPX 1235 has put my weekly back on a buy signal. So the next logical move is a challenge of the 1370 highs.

I am closing down this blog indefinitely. I have too much trading responsibilities to make timely blog updates. Besides, the intellectual stimulation of analyzing the markets isn't there anymore, to me. I have reached a point in my trading career where I feel that analyzing markets and trading the markets have got nothing to do with each other.

Analyzing the markets is a intellectual game, trying to determine the most probabilistic path based on a set of parameters. Ascertaining the future with precision is no guarantee of trading success, as the markets can gyrate wildly before reaching the intended target, in the process stopping out a good trade. Conversely, lack of future insight is not an impediment to trading success. Good trading is all about simplicity. Knowing the trend, finding a spot to enter, having a reasonable stop and taking profits along the way and recharging when out of positions.

Good trading is not about good charting either. Good charting is more of artistic work, while good trading is more like performance sports. Pouring over charts into the wee hours of midnight and analyzing ten thousand market indicators is a charting obsession. Trading is all about execution. Simple TA techniques based on systems with minimal degrees of freedom can do the job. As for me, mere price candles are enough to trade any market - Yes, absolutely no indicators, not even a moving average or a trendline. In fact i know a few people who don't even look at the charts, just plug-in numbers into a Excel worksheet at the end of the day and trade far more effectively than those who watch every price tick and countless indicators all day long.

Many enter the trading arena with a false notion that there's something mysterious element about the markets, which can be unlocked with technical analysis or fundamental analysis and the futile search for the holy grail begins. This constant search for perfection and some holy grail formula or indicator is what keeps a trader obsessed with charts and technical analysis, taking away the focus from the trade execution. I am no way dismissing the utility of technical analysis, but i think technical analysis plays a very small role in trading success than it's given credit for. Proper trade management and execution is far more important. When the whole world is melting down and your system gives a buy, it requires enormous faith in one's system and mental conditioning and discipline to take that trade. It's much more difficult than pouring over charts and making calls and prophesying about the future.

Trading based on questionable fundamental information or widely known fundamentals is even worse and far more a dangerous game. They belong to the message boards, for folks with day jobs, looking for evening entertainment.

Anyway my point is that charting and technical analysis do not simulate me as much as it did in my early years. My trading responsibilities are growing and i am focusing more on trade management and money management. Making timely updates on blog becomes an obligation and i do not want to be tied down by any obligations, given that i have other things to worry about.

I won't be deleting the blog as i have nothing to hide. There has been some spectacular calls made by me as well as some spectacular failures. It was a great intellectual journey for me. In life priorities and perspectives change and one moves on.

I will try to post some stuff on traders-talk.com when time permits. Even that would be minimal, going forward.

Good luck trading !

http://nav-ta.blogspot.com/2011/11/no-more-blog-updates.html

[xe2dy]

Thanks to RD, 24 EMA monthly.

[xe2dy]

WEEKLY CHARTS












WEEKLY DIREXION BULL ETF



















WEEKLY DIREXION BEAR ETF





















INDEXES





























BULLISH PERCENTAGES

































PERCENT OF STOCKS ABOVE MA'S

[xe2dy]

NAV's technique

Last 3 swing signals posted here based on my pure price system have all been big winners

Sell signal - Sep 1

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?...=133886&hl=


Sell Signal - Sep 8
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?...=134059&hl=


Buy signal - Sep 13
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?...=134199&hl=

First two sell signals were good for 80 and 60 SPX points respectively. When i say "good for", i am not necessarily implying traders' profits. I am just stating the no of points the signal achieved from initiation to the peak of the move. How many points a trader pulls out of a move is entirely up to the skill level of the trader and his profit taking methods. The current signal is about 33 points in-the-money and still going strong. The hourly trend is still up and no need to overanalyze here. If one is anxious about an out-of-blue reversal, that's what partial profit taking is for. I will post an update again, whenever the swing turns.


Good trading !

P.S - It's a bit misleading to call these hourly turns, as i actually look at the 30-min candles. So going forward i will just call them swing signals and not hourly signals.

[xe2dy]

NAV's technique

"My system is based on identifying trend changes based on pivot breaks and waiting for retracements to pull the trigger. The exact specifics are proprietary, which is my bread and butter."

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/FXpivots.asp#axzz1VG2Brche

"I don't use the floor pivots or any pivots derived based on mathematical formulas. I just use pivots established by pure price action. But as jdj said, there's a lot more to it."

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/lofiversion/index.php/t133886.html

So I would think 1) Identify trend via trend lines. 2) Calculate pivot break point. 3) Wait for retracement. ( Maybe taking average of last three ) 4) Pull the trigger with half position. 5) Add second half at next retracement.

[xe2dy]

NAV's technique

"My system is based on identifying trend changes based on pivot breaks and waiting for retracements to pull the trigger. The exact specifics are proprietary, which is my bread and butter."

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/FXpivots.asp#axzz1VG2Brche

So I would think 1) Identify trend via trend lines. 2) Calculate pivot break point. 3) Wait for retracement. ( Maybe taking average of last three ) 4) Pull the trigger with half position. 5) Add second half at next retracement.

[xe2dy]

Info on TICK

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/research-on-...-last-10-years/
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/why-you-must...-with-the-tick/
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/updating-int...traday-traders/

"In the last 10 years, most negative TICKs were seen in 2008, none below -1000 in 2006"

[xe2dy]

Thanks to RD & CCL

[xe2dy]

Various trading methods...

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/lofiversion/index.php/t132288.html

[xe2dy]

Thanks to IYB

[xe2dy]

Chilidawgz Jun 27 2011, 06:10 PM

BTW, I referenced Trader Nick above and his MACD. I nabbed this off the internet before all his postings and work were removed after he passed.

Nick's Technical Techniques By Nick Proffitt

USING MACD

While there is no Holy Grail of technical indicators, every analyst has a favorite, and I'm no different. For me it's the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence Indicator, or MACD. I like it best in its histogram form, but more on that in a moment.

There are a couple of things I like about MACD. It's a price-based indicator. And it combines the trend-following characteristics of moving averages with the overbought/oversold scale of an oscillator.

When they speak of MACD, most analysts are referring to the most well known and widely used "line" form of the indicator, which uses three exponential moving averages (EMA's) to produce two chart lines. The first line is the MACD Line, the result of subtracting a 26 period EMA from a 12 period EMA. This MACD Line is smoothed by a second line, called the Signal Line, which is nothing more than a 9 period EMA. (You can set your own periods, of course, but 26-12-9 are standard, and are what I use). The MACD Line is the faster of the two and is usually green in color on the chart (the slower Signal Line is red). These two lines fluctuate above and below a Zero Line.

Used as a trend following tool, MACD is a simple crossover indicator with very simple buy/sell signals. You buy when the faster green MACD Line crosses above the slower red Signal Line, and you sell when the MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line. Even used in this, its most primitive form, the indicator can provide the basis of a perfectly adequate trading system that will keep you in sych with the trend.

If you want to get a little fancier, you can also watch for divergences between the MACD action and price action. For example, if the price is still rising but the MACD Line rolls over and starts downward, crossing or threatening to cross the Signal Line, you know it's time to sell or to at least tighten your stops. You can also use a combination of daily and weekly MACD readings to fine tune your buying and selling; taking the direction of your trade from the MACD indicator on your weekly chart, but picking your exact entry point from the MACD reading on the daily chart. (If it's a buy entry you're looking for, you'd want the weekly indicator to be bullishly rising but the daily indicator to dropping, so you get an advantageous entry price).

Finally, you can use MACD's Zero Line as an overbought/oversold oscillator to calibrate your buying and selling even more finely. For example, a buy signal crossover that occurs below the Zero Line would be confirmed when both the MACD Line and Signal Line cross into bullish territory above the Zero Line.

Now we come to the MACD Histogram, which is the form of the indicator I prefer, and the one I use exclusively.

The MACD Histogram plots the DIFFERENCE between the MACD Line and the Signal Line and presents the information in the form of vertical bars (a histogram) which fluctuate above or below a Zero Line.

In some ways the histogram is just another way to look at line MACD, because the histogram's current bar will cross above or below the Zero Line at the exact same time the regular indicator's MACD Line crosses above or below the Signal Line. And just as with regular line MACD, the histogram issues concurrent buy and sell signals. As traditionally used, when the histogram's vertical bars cross above the Zero Line, it's a buy signal. When the bars cross below the Zero Line it's a sell signal.

But because the histogram tracks the DIFFERENCE between the two MACD lines, you get a bonus. You can see at a glance when the relationship between the two lines begins to strengthen or weaken. For example, the histogram's bars may be in bullish territory, well above the Zero Line, but if the the current bar drops below the immediately preceding bar, you know that while still in a bullish configuration, the spread between the MACD Line and Signal Line is narrowing. It's a sign that price momentum may be running out of gas.

As I noted above, the traditional use of the MACD Histogram is to buy when the bars cross above the Zero Line and to sell when they cross below the Zero Line. This is NOT the way I use it. I have found that on the BUY side at least, waiting for a Zero Line crossover is much too slow and usually misses the initial, often meatiest part of a price advance.

So how do I use MACD Histogram? First, I want the indicator's bars to be well into negative, oversold territory. In other words, well below the Zero Line; and the farther below, the better. Next, I look for the FIRST uptick on the weekly chart. By an uptick, I mean that the current bar suddenly stops dropping and and instead pops higher than the immediate preceeding bar. It's still in negative territory below the Zero Line, of course, but now it's moving up. IF this move is corroborated by other, faster indicators on the weekly chart, and IF the MACD Histogram bars on the daily chart are also climbing or just bottoming, the result is one of the best, and safest, buy signals I know of.

Using the MACD Histogram for selling purposes is a little tricker. You can, if you choose, simply invert the buy setup. In this case, you would have watched happily as the histogram bars marched steadily upwards, crossing the Zero Line, and going far into overbought territory. Then, when you see the first downtick (the current bar drops below the preceding bar), you sell. But in my experience, simply inverting the buy criteria often leads to whipsaws or selling too soon. I've employed various selling strategies over the years. For a long time, I thought it best to wait for the histogram bar to drop all the way back and penetrate the Zero Line before selling. More recently, I've leaned toward splitting the difference, looking for a top in the histogram, then selling after I get two or three consecutive downticks. It helps to watch the histogram's action on the daily chart in these cases. It may also be a good idea to rely more on other indicators for selling, rather than just the MACD histogram alone.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/lofiversion/index.php/t132050.html

[xe2dy]

Spielchkr's Bottom Spotter

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=43820517

[xe2dy]

Econ #'s + Futures

http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

________________________________________________________________

Futures (2) + World Indices + Commodity Futures

Futures

http://www.cme.com/dta/del/globex.html

http://money.cnn.com/markets/afterhours/

--------------------------------------------------------------

World Indices ~ updates every 60sec.
Watch the dates! top click for US Market just above Japan

http://www.wwfn.com/commentary/oscharts.html

http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/Asian_Stock_Markets/asian_stock_markets.html

--------------------------------------------------------------

Commodity Futures

http://sites.barchart.com/pl/pearce/default.asp?code=XPEARCE§ion=energi

[xe2dy]

RUT, SLV

[xe2dy]

$USD chart

http://www.forexpros.com/quotes/us-dollar-index

[xe2dy]

IWM +

[xe2dy]

RUT

[xe2dy]

Th'ks to liberatorium

[xe2dy]

Thanks to IYB

[xe2dy]

tuffy88
Feb 20 2011

Where does the market go from here? Don't know. Would like to but consider the answer unknowable. The answer to the question is unknowable that is by any human being. Even "Mr. Market" does not know. He will tell you where it has been, but not where it is going. All we can say on the subject is we don't know.

That is my opinion. The market can still be traded though. Just stay on the right side of the trend. I follow the trend in the Big Picture colume of IBD. Other ways of following the trend, but I don't use them. Buy SPY or QQQQ when the "market pulse" section of the Big Picture is in an uptrend, exit and move to SHY (1-3 Year Treasury ETE) when the trend moves into a downtrend. Simple, yes. Too simple, I don't think so. In my opinion more money has been left on the table by acting on calls for "market crashes" or "market meltups" than on anything else.

Right now the trend of the broad market is up. It will stay up until it turns down. No one knows when that will be. I have been long SPY since it turned up in Sptember, 2010. Will stay long until it turns down, whenever that is. That is it. There is nothing else. I posted each and every trade I made trading this way from April, 2003 until the fall of 2009 on this site in real time. On balance a very profitable method, as any oldtimer here as any one here who followed my real time trades could tell you. Traded the same way since then and it has been quite profitable. I quite posting my trades here because the results generated enormous hostility towards me and I decided I did not need that.

What I say next will probably tell you why the hostility. I think all the calls for "market crashes" or "meltup ups" are worse than useless. The do real harm if anyone is stupid enough to trade on them. The only certainly is that the trend will turn down in the future. When, how far, or why is unknowable to anyone reading this. Would I like to know? Sure. When I do exit my trade the price will more than likely be down 2 or 3% from whatever the high on SPY turn out to be. Maybe a little more, but if experience is any guide not more than 5%. I regard it as the price that has to be paid in my trading. There will be whipsaws at times. Also part of the price that must be paid. Very simple way of trading, but far better than guessing tops & bottome.

Charles

tuffy88
Sept 21 2009

Still look in on Traders-Talk most days, at least once, Toni. To answer your question the above quote from my post on August 24th should answer it. I re-entered my position in SPY's in trading account on that date with a 1/3rd position. 2nd third after a 2% advance and 3rd third after next 2% advance. Remain 100% invested in trading account since then. Our main retirement portfolio is now 71% in Vanguard Index Funds (50-50 stock-bonds) 29% in the trading account. When I started the trading account in April, 2003 it was 20% in trading account and 80% in main portfolio. The trading account has outperformed the main account by that much since 2003. And the main index portfolio has been no slouch. It was down 22% at the close of business on 12/31/08. I did no trading at all in that index portfolio except to re balance at the end of 2007 & 2008. That is down from its closing high on October 9,2007 until December 31,2008. The top of the bull market. As of last Friday it was up 19.22% YTD. Getting close to break even since top of bull market. The profits in the trading portfolio make the combined portfolio's well into all time highs.

The reason I don't post much here anymore is that there is really not much for me to say regarding my method of trading.
(1) be invested when the markets are going up.
(a) Never call tops or bottom. Just stay invested when the market is in a confirmed uptrend. Exit only after it goes into a downtrend. NEVER try to predict when that will happen. The market will tell you.
(2) be in short term bond funds (SHY) when the market is in a downtrend.
(a) Never predict a bottom. Just stay in SHY when the market is in a confirmed downtrend. Re-enter only AFTER it goes into a confirmed uptrend. NEVER predict a bottom. Market will tell you.

(3) Repeat.
(4) That is all there is to my style of trading.

Pretty simple. As one poster here posted a few weeks ago The system is "not nearly good enough to get a job on the street." Those street pro's must have made a lot of money in the bear market. So it is a good thing I don't want a job on the street.

Will post when I exit in trading account.

Charles

[xe2dy]

S&P 500 PE Ratio

http://www.multpl.com/

[xe2dy]

$TED / $SPX / $RUT

[xe2dy]

SS thanks to IYB


If the (black) current reading is above the (blue) moving average, the trend is 'up' or the indicator is in 'buy mode', and if below, it's in downtrend or 'sell mode'.

Oversold/Overbought indications

* An overbought market is indicated when the oscillator enters territory above the +50 area. A bearish signal is provided when the oscillator forms a peak above +50 and then crosses back below this level.
* An oversold market is indicated when the oscillator enters territory below the -50 area. A bullish signal is provided when the oscillator forms a bottom below -50 and then crosses back above this level.

Zero-line Crossovers

* Bullish signal: upward movement through the zero line.
* Bearish signal: downward movement through the zero line.

If the (black) current reading is above the (green) moving average, the trend is 'up' or the indicator is in 'buy mode', and if below, it's in downtrend or 'sell mode'.

Oversold/Overbought indications

* An overbought market is indicated when the oscillator enters territory above the +50 area. A bearish signal is provided when the oscillator forms a peak above +50 and then crosses back below this level.
* An oversold market is indicated when the oscillator enters territory below the -50 area. A bullish signal is provided when the oscillator forms a bottom below -50 and then crosses back above this level.

Zero-line Crossovers

* Bullish signal: upward movement through the zero line.
* Bearish signal: downward movement through the zero line.


When the current reading crosses into the channel of the bollinger bands, this produces a signal - up crossing is buy, down crossing is sell.


If the (black) current reading is above the (blue) moving average, the trend is 'up' or the indicator is in 'buy mode', and if below, it's in downtrend or 'sell mode'.


If the (black) current reading is above the (blue) moving average, the trend is 'up' or the indicator is in 'buy mode', and if below, it's in downtrend or 'sell mode'.


When the green line gets above the threshold (black) line then crosses below the red line, thats a buy-- and it stays there until an opposite signal is generated by the green line getting below the bottom threshold line and crossing back above the red line, a sell signal.


When the green line gets above the threshold (black) line then crosses below the red line, that's a buy-- and it stays there until an opposite signal is generated by the green line getting below the bottom threshold line and crossing back above the red line, a sell signal.

TrinQ Short Term Trading Arms Index : The Arms Index is primarily a short-term trading tool. The Index shows whether volume is flowing into advancing or declining stocks. If more volume is associated with advancing stocks than declining stocks, the Arms Index will be less than 1.0; if more volume is associated with declining stocks, the Index will be greater than 1.0.

[xe2dy]

TRADING QUESTION ANSWERED by Mr DEV, entry and exits


"This was a good question I thought was worth addressing again as it's often taken for granted but is so important to ones psychology when trading. Speaking of psychology how many times do you stop to analyze your own psychology? It's just as important to asses ones frame of mind before trading as it is the charts.
Mr Dev "

"I have been on this forum following you for a while. If you might be able to spare a moment, and have the inclination, I would like to ask a question please. Can you please tell me how you enter and exit your trades - not looking for any proprietary information - just interested in percentile of planned trade funds. Like you (I believe), I typically only use one ETF, and recently have been mimicking your RUT choice.

What percentage of your planned trading funds do you use for your entry, and how do you usually split it up? The same question goes for exits. I sense from your posts that you enter your trades in what looks like two entries, and it appears also that you exit in a similar sequence.

I realize that obviously every trade is different, but if you have a pattern that works for you I would really appreciate knowing; again if you have the time and inclination. Otherwise, thank you for reading this anyway. I fully realize we are all very busy in this world (I know I am), and will not question any inability to respond.

Thank you in advance for the consideration, regardless. And thanks for your continued posting! Best wishes."

"I think a good first entry is often 30%, the second would 50% of the balance and then third 100% to equal all in. Reasoning most traders have terrible timing on a swing basis, this acts as a filter for that. Exiting can be much different. I think with big gains a 50 or 70% exit strategy is a good one followed by 100%. The reason is most traders give back much of their gains holding longer than they should.

Some traders can also exit too early leaving a lot of money on the table for what would of been a bigger winning trade, although it is a different timing issue that should be based on the charts this strategy is helpful here as well.

I like to be early so this strategy works for my plan going in, getting out, and reversing at or about the same time to capture most of the tradable swings moves. "

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=121859

[xe2dy]

H Map +

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm5/tropicalatlanticsatellite_large_animated.html

NOAA map

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=12903310

Historical patterns

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7845030

Thanks to FA and QT for sharing links.

[xe2dy]

[xe2dy]

http://market-ticker.org/

http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=133944

[anon.10]

xe2dy, are you e/ anon need talk if so.

[xe2dy]

Fearless Forecast by arbman at TT

"So far, I wrote it was going to be OK until thanksgiving back here... Now it has changed for the reminder of this 16-17 wk cycle due to the larger 64-68 wk cycle pressing down. There are 4 x 16-17 wk cycle within 64-68wks. Most of my analysis is based on the 64wks since this is where the most issues are trading.

The first 16-17 wk cycle lasted from March until June, the second one from July through October, this last one since November topped within the early cycle. There will be a low in about 6-10wks and then a bounce and another low 16-17wk thereafter. We may still roll over slowly, but I think the upside is very limited.

This is bearish obviously, but nothing too inordinate. The cycle went up about 2/3 of the time or so (64 x 2/3 = 40 wks since March bottom). It should be still a pretty good achievement given we are coming out of a 24 month downtrend. It will now correct down for 20-24 wks or so --4-5 months. As I said, we may still see a slow roll over for the next 2 weeks, or until the middle of December. A small rally from here does not change the facts, we may not see new highs anyway...

So, the middle of May where you should see the next low for the strong upside, NOT HERE. There will be a bunch of trading ranges and downside risk for the next several months and then a consolidation period before the final lows from February until late April or early May...

I am out and Best of luck."

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=113846

[xe2dy]

Spielchkr's Bottom Spotter

[anon.10]

We did get close to the 50 ma on the dow which is where i thought we would go back to.

[anon.10]

I usually just follow Swenlin's advise. I think he is best.

[anon.10]

glad I didn't follow.

[xe2dy]

Hi anon.10, tuffy88 has posted an exit of SPY and now into SHY using the IBD system.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=112520

[xe2dy]

Econ #'s + Futures

http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/calendars/economic.asp?x=0&siteid=mktw

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/economy/economic_calendar.asp?siteid=mktw

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

________________________________________________________________

Futures (2) + World Indices + Commodity Futures

Futures

http://www.cme.com/dta/del/globex.html

http://money.cnn.com/markets/afterhours/

--------------------------------------------------------------

World Indices ~ updates every 60sec.
Watch the dates! top click for US Market just above Japan

http://www.wwfn.com/commentary/oscharts.html

http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/Asian_Stock_Markets/asian_stock_markets.html

World heat map

http://www.financemaps.com/map/day

--------------------------------------------------------------

Commodity Futures

http://sites.barchart.com/pl/pearce/default.asp?code=XPEARCE§ion=energi

[anon.10]

Xe2dy:

I did realize that you were 2 different people. I just thought you had same style has Tuffy. My mistake. Sorry