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[xe2dy]

Fearless Forecast by arbman at TT

"So far, I wrote it was going to be OK until thanksgiving back here... Now it has changed for the reminder of this 16-17 wk cycle due to the larger 64-68 wk cycle pressing down. There are 4 x 16-17 wk cycle within 64-68wks. Most of my analysis is based on the 64wks since this is where the most issues are trading.

The first 16-17 wk cycle lasted from March until June, the second one from July through October, this last one since November topped within the early cycle. There will be a low in about 6-10wks and then a bounce and another low 16-17wk thereafter. We may still roll over slowly, but I think the upside is very limited.

This is bearish obviously, but nothing too inordinate. The cycle went up about 2/3 of the time or so (64 x 2/3 = 40 wks since March bottom). It should be still a pretty good achievement given we are coming out of a 24 month downtrend. It will now correct down for 20-24 wks or so --4-5 months. As I said, we may still see a slow roll over for the next 2 weeks, or until the middle of December. A small rally from here does not change the facts, we may not see new highs anyway...

So, the middle of May where you should see the next low for the strong upside, NOT HERE. There will be a bunch of trading ranges and downside risk for the next several months and then a consolidation period before the final lows from February until late April or early May...

I am out and Best of luck."

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=113846