Donut Shop

[xe2dy]

Spices / Foods to AVOID

* Spices and herbs have real medicinal properties. Study after study shows the benefits of distinct herbs and spices. For example, one 2003 trial of 60 people with type 2 diabetes reported that consuming as little as two teaspoons of cinnamon daily for six weeks reduced blood-glucose levels significantly. It also improved blood cholesterol and triglyceride levels, perhaps because insulin plays a key role in regulating fats in your body.



Choose flavor over blandness every time, and try to incorporate these specific herbs and spices into your diet if you have the following health concerns:

* rosemary and basil for their anti-inflammatory power

* cumin and sage for their dementia-fighting power

* cayenne and cinnamon for their obesity-fighting power

* coriander and cinnamon for their sugar regulating powers

* lemon grass, nutmeg, bay leaves and saffron for their calming effects on your mood

* turmeric for its cancer fighting power

* oregano for its fungus-beating power

* garlic, mustard seed and chicory for their heart-pumping power

* basil and thyme for their skin-saving power

* turmeric, basil, cinnamon, thyme, saffron, and ginger for their immune-boosting power

* coriander, rosemary, cayenne, allspice and black pepper for their depression-busting power
__________________________________________________________________

Foods to AVOID to Keep Your Mind Sharp

A healthy diet is about more than keeping yourself fit and free of heart disease, wrinkles and impotence (yes, all are related to food!). It’s about preserving your memory, too.

For instance, eating high amounts of saturated fat--more than four grams in an hour--can raise the levels of bad cholesterol in your blood, which can stick to your arteries, and, even worse, turns on inflammatory genes that result in those wrinkles, poor orgasm quality, and you got it, that gunk in your brain that makes your memory be less than it is now.

The same arterial plaque buildup from this saturated fat--we call it a food felon--that leads to heart disease is a major culprit for vascular dementia--when the brain neurons become inflamed or don't get enough oxygen and blood flow. Inflammation and lack of oxygen (resulting from that donut or sugary soda) result in accelerated memory loss.

This gives serious meaning to the phrase "eating to forget."

Poor food choices cause poor cognitive functioning: the eight southern states in America that make up the "Stroke Belt" also have higher incidences of obesity and and greater chance of dementia. Of course, many factors are at play when it comes to developing dementia, but lifestyle factors like a high saturated fat diet (from four-legged animal fat, two legged animal skin, palm and coconut oil), coupled with little physical activity, are certainly big contributors to memory problems as well as wrinkles, orgasm decay and heart attacks.

A recent study of healthy adults and adults with mild cognitive impairment tested out the effects of two diets. One was the "high diet," which was high in saturated fat (at least 25 percent of the diet) and simple carbohydrates (glycemic index greater than 70). The other was a "low diet," which was low in saturated fat (less than 7 percent of the diet) with a fewer simple carbs (glycemic index less than 55).

Not surprisingly, the low (low in the food felons) diet improved or made the levels of three important markers of health better for you.

Firstly, this diet was associated with decreased plasma lipids (read: less lousy or bad cholesterol). Secondly, the low diet was linked with lower insulin levels. Current research is looking at an optimal insulin dose to help cognitive functioning in people with mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease.

Lastly, the low in food felons diet lowered CSF F2-isoprostane concentrations, which is a fancy way of saying it lessened the biomarkers of free radical injury, a signal of oxidative damage to, or damaging inflammation in, your central nervous system (the brain and spinal cord).

What does this all mean for the bigger picture? After just one month of the low saturated fat/low carbs diet, "visual memory" improved for healthy adults and adults with cognitive impairment. This was a small study of 49 subjects, but the implications have big promise for your enjoyment of life and brain functioning!

Starting today, what can you do? Look out for the five food felons, which are guaranteed to age your brain and body. We like to kick the felons totally out, but truth be told, the felons don't have to be exiled from your diet--they just have to be put under very close watch.

Here's a quick review of how they can age you, so you can steer clear:

1) Trans fat: Look out for "partially hydrogenated vegetable oils." Trans fat alters metabolic processes and hardens your arteries. How much to have? Zilch!

2) Saturated fat: Leads to the buildup of fatty tissue on the inner linings of your arteries and turns on inflammatory genes. How much to have? No more than 4 grams per hour.

3) Added sugar: Excess sugar causes the proteins in your body to function improperly, aging your arterial system. How much to have? Main dishes and desserts should contain no more than 4 grams of added sugar per serving. Side dishes should contain no more than 2 grams of added sugars per serving. Total should be less than 4 grams added sugar per hour.

4) Syrups: All syrups. Not just that high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS)--the man-made sugar that does the same things as sugar--all syrups, like all added sugars increase the risk of dysfunctional proteins, obesity and metabolic syndrome. Be wary of maple and malt syrups, as well. How much to have? Stay away! In total, you want to keep you added sugar count to less than 24 grams, or 6 teaspoons per day , and less than (when combined with added sugars) 4 grams of added sugar an hour.

5) Any grain but 100-percent whole grain: Whole grains contain a lot of fiber, which helps preventing arterial aging. How much to have? Nada, Never have any--why age unnecessarily? Why forget what your ideal hunk looked like? Anytime you can swap simple carbohydrates for complex carbs with 100-percent whole grain, go ahead!

[xe2dy]

Charts

[xe2dy]

RD and bonds,

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/lofiversion/index.php/t136335.html

[xe2dy]

TICK by RD

"Mark Cook used to say that TICK was like a rubber band in that it would stretch and stretch, but eventually snap back.
You don't know when, but you need to be ready when it does."

[xe2dy]

NAV's thoughts on trading...

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 07, 2011
No more blog updates
Last update for a while: Breakout above SPX 1235 has put my weekly back on a buy signal. So the next logical move is a challenge of the 1370 highs.

I am closing down this blog indefinitely. I have too much trading responsibilities to make timely blog updates. Besides, the intellectual stimulation of analyzing the markets isn't there anymore, to me. I have reached a point in my trading career where I feel that analyzing markets and trading the markets have got nothing to do with each other.

Analyzing the markets is a intellectual game, trying to determine the most probabilistic path based on a set of parameters. Ascertaining the future with precision is no guarantee of trading success, as the markets can gyrate wildly before reaching the intended target, in the process stopping out a good trade. Conversely, lack of future insight is not an impediment to trading success. Good trading is all about simplicity. Knowing the trend, finding a spot to enter, having a reasonable stop and taking profits along the way and recharging when out of positions.

Good trading is not about good charting either. Good charting is more of artistic work, while good trading is more like performance sports. Pouring over charts into the wee hours of midnight and analyzing ten thousand market indicators is a charting obsession. Trading is all about execution. Simple TA techniques based on systems with minimal degrees of freedom can do the job. As for me, mere price candles are enough to trade any market - Yes, absolutely no indicators, not even a moving average or a trendline. In fact i know a few people who don't even look at the charts, just plug-in numbers into a Excel worksheet at the end of the day and trade far more effectively than those who watch every price tick and countless indicators all day long.

Many enter the trading arena with a false notion that there's something mysterious element about the markets, which can be unlocked with technical analysis or fundamental analysis and the futile search for the holy grail begins. This constant search for perfection and some holy grail formula or indicator is what keeps a trader obsessed with charts and technical analysis, taking away the focus from the trade execution. I am no way dismissing the utility of technical analysis, but i think technical analysis plays a very small role in trading success than it's given credit for. Proper trade management and execution is far more important. When the whole world is melting down and your system gives a buy, it requires enormous faith in one's system and mental conditioning and discipline to take that trade. It's much more difficult than pouring over charts and making calls and prophesying about the future.

Trading based on questionable fundamental information or widely known fundamentals is even worse and far more a dangerous game. They belong to the message boards, for folks with day jobs, looking for evening entertainment.

Anyway my point is that charting and technical analysis do not simulate me as much as it did in my early years. My trading responsibilities are growing and i am focusing more on trade management and money management. Making timely updates on blog becomes an obligation and i do not want to be tied down by any obligations, given that i have other things to worry about.

I won't be deleting the blog as i have nothing to hide. There has been some spectacular calls made by me as well as some spectacular failures. It was a great intellectual journey for me. In life priorities and perspectives change and one moves on.

I will try to post some stuff on traders-talk.com when time permits. Even that would be minimal, going forward.

Good luck trading !

http://nav-ta.blogspot.com/2011/11/no-more-blog-updates.html

[xe2dy]

Thanks to RD, 24 EMA monthly.

[xe2dy]

WEEKLY CHARTS












WEEKLY DIREXION BULL ETF



















WEEKLY DIREXION BEAR ETF





















INDEXES





























BULLISH PERCENTAGES

































PERCENT OF STOCKS ABOVE MA'S

[xe2dy]

NAV's technique

Last 3 swing signals posted here based on my pure price system have all been big winners

Sell signal - Sep 1

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?...=133886&hl=


Sell Signal - Sep 8
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?...=134059&hl=


Buy signal - Sep 13
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?...=134199&hl=

First two sell signals were good for 80 and 60 SPX points respectively. When i say "good for", i am not necessarily implying traders' profits. I am just stating the no of points the signal achieved from initiation to the peak of the move. How many points a trader pulls out of a move is entirely up to the skill level of the trader and his profit taking methods. The current signal is about 33 points in-the-money and still going strong. The hourly trend is still up and no need to overanalyze here. If one is anxious about an out-of-blue reversal, that's what partial profit taking is for. I will post an update again, whenever the swing turns.


Good trading !

P.S - It's a bit misleading to call these hourly turns, as i actually look at the 30-min candles. So going forward i will just call them swing signals and not hourly signals.

[xe2dy]

NAV's technique

"My system is based on identifying trend changes based on pivot breaks and waiting for retracements to pull the trigger. The exact specifics are proprietary, which is my bread and butter."

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/FXpivots.asp#axzz1VG2Brche

"I don't use the floor pivots or any pivots derived based on mathematical formulas. I just use pivots established by pure price action. But as jdj said, there's a lot more to it."

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/lofiversion/index.php/t133886.html

So I would think 1) Identify trend via trend lines. 2) Calculate pivot break point. 3) Wait for retracement. ( Maybe taking average of last three ) 4) Pull the trigger with half position. 5) Add second half at next retracement.

[xe2dy]

NAV's technique

"My system is based on identifying trend changes based on pivot breaks and waiting for retracements to pull the trigger. The exact specifics are proprietary, which is my bread and butter."

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/FXpivots.asp#axzz1VG2Brche

So I would think 1) Identify trend via trend lines. 2) Calculate pivot break point. 3) Wait for retracement. ( Maybe taking average of last three ) 4) Pull the trigger with half position. 5) Add second half at next retracement.

[xe2dy]

Info on TICK

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/research-on-...-last-10-years/
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/why-you-must...-with-the-tick/
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/updating-int...traday-traders/

"In the last 10 years, most negative TICKs were seen in 2008, none below -1000 in 2006"

[xe2dy]

Thanks to RD & CCL

[xe2dy]

Various trading methods...

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/lofiversion/index.php/t132288.html

[xe2dy]

Thanks to IYB

[xe2dy]

Chilidawgz Jun 27 2011, 06:10 PM

BTW, I referenced Trader Nick above and his MACD. I nabbed this off the internet before all his postings and work were removed after he passed.

Nick's Technical Techniques By Nick Proffitt

USING MACD

While there is no Holy Grail of technical indicators, every analyst has a favorite, and I'm no different. For me it's the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence Indicator, or MACD. I like it best in its histogram form, but more on that in a moment.

There are a couple of things I like about MACD. It's a price-based indicator. And it combines the trend-following characteristics of moving averages with the overbought/oversold scale of an oscillator.

When they speak of MACD, most analysts are referring to the most well known and widely used "line" form of the indicator, which uses three exponential moving averages (EMA's) to produce two chart lines. The first line is the MACD Line, the result of subtracting a 26 period EMA from a 12 period EMA. This MACD Line is smoothed by a second line, called the Signal Line, which is nothing more than a 9 period EMA. (You can set your own periods, of course, but 26-12-9 are standard, and are what I use). The MACD Line is the faster of the two and is usually green in color on the chart (the slower Signal Line is red). These two lines fluctuate above and below a Zero Line.

Used as a trend following tool, MACD is a simple crossover indicator with very simple buy/sell signals. You buy when the faster green MACD Line crosses above the slower red Signal Line, and you sell when the MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line. Even used in this, its most primitive form, the indicator can provide the basis of a perfectly adequate trading system that will keep you in sych with the trend.

If you want to get a little fancier, you can also watch for divergences between the MACD action and price action. For example, if the price is still rising but the MACD Line rolls over and starts downward, crossing or threatening to cross the Signal Line, you know it's time to sell or to at least tighten your stops. You can also use a combination of daily and weekly MACD readings to fine tune your buying and selling; taking the direction of your trade from the MACD indicator on your weekly chart, but picking your exact entry point from the MACD reading on the daily chart. (If it's a buy entry you're looking for, you'd want the weekly indicator to be bullishly rising but the daily indicator to dropping, so you get an advantageous entry price).

Finally, you can use MACD's Zero Line as an overbought/oversold oscillator to calibrate your buying and selling even more finely. For example, a buy signal crossover that occurs below the Zero Line would be confirmed when both the MACD Line and Signal Line cross into bullish territory above the Zero Line.

Now we come to the MACD Histogram, which is the form of the indicator I prefer, and the one I use exclusively.

The MACD Histogram plots the DIFFERENCE between the MACD Line and the Signal Line and presents the information in the form of vertical bars (a histogram) which fluctuate above or below a Zero Line.

In some ways the histogram is just another way to look at line MACD, because the histogram's current bar will cross above or below the Zero Line at the exact same time the regular indicator's MACD Line crosses above or below the Signal Line. And just as with regular line MACD, the histogram issues concurrent buy and sell signals. As traditionally used, when the histogram's vertical bars cross above the Zero Line, it's a buy signal. When the bars cross below the Zero Line it's a sell signal.

But because the histogram tracks the DIFFERENCE between the two MACD lines, you get a bonus. You can see at a glance when the relationship between the two lines begins to strengthen or weaken. For example, the histogram's bars may be in bullish territory, well above the Zero Line, but if the the current bar drops below the immediately preceding bar, you know that while still in a bullish configuration, the spread between the MACD Line and Signal Line is narrowing. It's a sign that price momentum may be running out of gas.

As I noted above, the traditional use of the MACD Histogram is to buy when the bars cross above the Zero Line and to sell when they cross below the Zero Line. This is NOT the way I use it. I have found that on the BUY side at least, waiting for a Zero Line crossover is much too slow and usually misses the initial, often meatiest part of a price advance.

So how do I use MACD Histogram? First, I want the indicator's bars to be well into negative, oversold territory. In other words, well below the Zero Line; and the farther below, the better. Next, I look for the FIRST uptick on the weekly chart. By an uptick, I mean that the current bar suddenly stops dropping and and instead pops higher than the immediate preceeding bar. It's still in negative territory below the Zero Line, of course, but now it's moving up. IF this move is corroborated by other, faster indicators on the weekly chart, and IF the MACD Histogram bars on the daily chart are also climbing or just bottoming, the result is one of the best, and safest, buy signals I know of.

Using the MACD Histogram for selling purposes is a little tricker. You can, if you choose, simply invert the buy setup. In this case, you would have watched happily as the histogram bars marched steadily upwards, crossing the Zero Line, and going far into overbought territory. Then, when you see the first downtick (the current bar drops below the preceding bar), you sell. But in my experience, simply inverting the buy criteria often leads to whipsaws or selling too soon. I've employed various selling strategies over the years. For a long time, I thought it best to wait for the histogram bar to drop all the way back and penetrate the Zero Line before selling. More recently, I've leaned toward splitting the difference, looking for a top in the histogram, then selling after I get two or three consecutive downticks. It helps to watch the histogram's action on the daily chart in these cases. It may also be a good idea to rely more on other indicators for selling, rather than just the MACD histogram alone.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/lofiversion/index.php/t132050.html

[xe2dy]

Spielchkr's Bottom Spotter

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=43820517

[xe2dy]

Econ #'s + Futures

http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

________________________________________________________________

Futures (2) + World Indices + Commodity Futures

Futures

http://www.cme.com/dta/del/globex.html

http://money.cnn.com/markets/afterhours/

--------------------------------------------------------------

World Indices ~ updates every 60sec.
Watch the dates! top click for US Market just above Japan

http://www.wwfn.com/commentary/oscharts.html

http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/Asian_Stock_Markets/asian_stock_markets.html

--------------------------------------------------------------

Commodity Futures

http://sites.barchart.com/pl/pearce/default.asp?code=XPEARCE§ion=energi

[xe2dy]

RUT, SLV

[xe2dy]

$USD chart

http://www.forexpros.com/quotes/us-dollar-index

[xe2dy]

IWM +

[xe2dy]

RUT

[xe2dy]

Th'ks to liberatorium

[xe2dy]

Thanks to IYB

[xe2dy]

tuffy88
Feb 20 2011

Where does the market go from here? Don't know. Would like to but consider the answer unknowable. The answer to the question is unknowable that is by any human being. Even "Mr. Market" does not know. He will tell you where it has been, but not where it is going. All we can say on the subject is we don't know.

That is my opinion. The market can still be traded though. Just stay on the right side of the trend. I follow the trend in the Big Picture colume of IBD. Other ways of following the trend, but I don't use them. Buy SPY or QQQQ when the "market pulse" section of the Big Picture is in an uptrend, exit and move to SHY (1-3 Year Treasury ETE) when the trend moves into a downtrend. Simple, yes. Too simple, I don't think so. In my opinion more money has been left on the table by acting on calls for "market crashes" or "market meltups" than on anything else.

Right now the trend of the broad market is up. It will stay up until it turns down. No one knows when that will be. I have been long SPY since it turned up in Sptember, 2010. Will stay long until it turns down, whenever that is. That is it. There is nothing else. I posted each and every trade I made trading this way from April, 2003 until the fall of 2009 on this site in real time. On balance a very profitable method, as any oldtimer here as any one here who followed my real time trades could tell you. Traded the same way since then and it has been quite profitable. I quite posting my trades here because the results generated enormous hostility towards me and I decided I did not need that.

What I say next will probably tell you why the hostility. I think all the calls for "market crashes" or "meltup ups" are worse than useless. The do real harm if anyone is stupid enough to trade on them. The only certainly is that the trend will turn down in the future. When, how far, or why is unknowable to anyone reading this. Would I like to know? Sure. When I do exit my trade the price will more than likely be down 2 or 3% from whatever the high on SPY turn out to be. Maybe a little more, but if experience is any guide not more than 5%. I regard it as the price that has to be paid in my trading. There will be whipsaws at times. Also part of the price that must be paid. Very simple way of trading, but far better than guessing tops & bottome.

Charles

tuffy88
Sept 21 2009

Still look in on Traders-Talk most days, at least once, Toni. To answer your question the above quote from my post on August 24th should answer it. I re-entered my position in SPY's in trading account on that date with a 1/3rd position. 2nd third after a 2% advance and 3rd third after next 2% advance. Remain 100% invested in trading account since then. Our main retirement portfolio is now 71% in Vanguard Index Funds (50-50 stock-bonds) 29% in the trading account. When I started the trading account in April, 2003 it was 20% in trading account and 80% in main portfolio. The trading account has outperformed the main account by that much since 2003. And the main index portfolio has been no slouch. It was down 22% at the close of business on 12/31/08. I did no trading at all in that index portfolio except to re balance at the end of 2007 & 2008. That is down from its closing high on October 9,2007 until December 31,2008. The top of the bull market. As of last Friday it was up 19.22% YTD. Getting close to break even since top of bull market. The profits in the trading portfolio make the combined portfolio's well into all time highs.

The reason I don't post much here anymore is that there is really not much for me to say regarding my method of trading.
(1) be invested when the markets are going up.
(a) Never call tops or bottom. Just stay invested when the market is in a confirmed uptrend. Exit only after it goes into a downtrend. NEVER try to predict when that will happen. The market will tell you.
(2) be in short term bond funds (SHY) when the market is in a downtrend.
(a) Never predict a bottom. Just stay in SHY when the market is in a confirmed downtrend. Re-enter only AFTER it goes into a confirmed uptrend. NEVER predict a bottom. Market will tell you.

(3) Repeat.
(4) That is all there is to my style of trading.

Pretty simple. As one poster here posted a few weeks ago The system is "not nearly good enough to get a job on the street." Those street pro's must have made a lot of money in the bear market. So it is a good thing I don't want a job on the street.

Will post when I exit in trading account.

Charles

[xe2dy]

S&P 500 PE Ratio

http://www.multpl.com/

[xe2dy]

$TED / $SPX / $RUT

[xe2dy]

SS thanks to IYB


If the (black) current reading is above the (blue) moving average, the trend is 'up' or the indicator is in 'buy mode', and if below, it's in downtrend or 'sell mode'.

Oversold/Overbought indications

* An overbought market is indicated when the oscillator enters territory above the +50 area. A bearish signal is provided when the oscillator forms a peak above +50 and then crosses back below this level.
* An oversold market is indicated when the oscillator enters territory below the -50 area. A bullish signal is provided when the oscillator forms a bottom below -50 and then crosses back above this level.

Zero-line Crossovers

* Bullish signal: upward movement through the zero line.
* Bearish signal: downward movement through the zero line.

If the (black) current reading is above the (green) moving average, the trend is 'up' or the indicator is in 'buy mode', and if below, it's in downtrend or 'sell mode'.

Oversold/Overbought indications

* An overbought market is indicated when the oscillator enters territory above the +50 area. A bearish signal is provided when the oscillator forms a peak above +50 and then crosses back below this level.
* An oversold market is indicated when the oscillator enters territory below the -50 area. A bullish signal is provided when the oscillator forms a bottom below -50 and then crosses back above this level.

Zero-line Crossovers

* Bullish signal: upward movement through the zero line.
* Bearish signal: downward movement through the zero line.


When the current reading crosses into the channel of the bollinger bands, this produces a signal - up crossing is buy, down crossing is sell.


If the (black) current reading is above the (blue) moving average, the trend is 'up' or the indicator is in 'buy mode', and if below, it's in downtrend or 'sell mode'.


If the (black) current reading is above the (blue) moving average, the trend is 'up' or the indicator is in 'buy mode', and if below, it's in downtrend or 'sell mode'.


When the green line gets above the threshold (black) line then crosses below the red line, thats a buy-- and it stays there until an opposite signal is generated by the green line getting below the bottom threshold line and crossing back above the red line, a sell signal.


When the green line gets above the threshold (black) line then crosses below the red line, that's a buy-- and it stays there until an opposite signal is generated by the green line getting below the bottom threshold line and crossing back above the red line, a sell signal.

TrinQ Short Term Trading Arms Index : The Arms Index is primarily a short-term trading tool. The Index shows whether volume is flowing into advancing or declining stocks. If more volume is associated with advancing stocks than declining stocks, the Arms Index will be less than 1.0; if more volume is associated with declining stocks, the Index will be greater than 1.0.

[xe2dy]

TRADING QUESTION ANSWERED by Mr DEV, entry and exits


"This was a good question I thought was worth addressing again as it's often taken for granted but is so important to ones psychology when trading. Speaking of psychology how many times do you stop to analyze your own psychology? It's just as important to asses ones frame of mind before trading as it is the charts.
Mr Dev "

"I have been on this forum following you for a while. If you might be able to spare a moment, and have the inclination, I would like to ask a question please. Can you please tell me how you enter and exit your trades - not looking for any proprietary information - just interested in percentile of planned trade funds. Like you (I believe), I typically only use one ETF, and recently have been mimicking your RUT choice.

What percentage of your planned trading funds do you use for your entry, and how do you usually split it up? The same question goes for exits. I sense from your posts that you enter your trades in what looks like two entries, and it appears also that you exit in a similar sequence.

I realize that obviously every trade is different, but if you have a pattern that works for you I would really appreciate knowing; again if you have the time and inclination. Otherwise, thank you for reading this anyway. I fully realize we are all very busy in this world (I know I am), and will not question any inability to respond.

Thank you in advance for the consideration, regardless. And thanks for your continued posting! Best wishes."

"I think a good first entry is often 30%, the second would 50% of the balance and then third 100% to equal all in. Reasoning most traders have terrible timing on a swing basis, this acts as a filter for that. Exiting can be much different. I think with big gains a 50 or 70% exit strategy is a good one followed by 100%. The reason is most traders give back much of their gains holding longer than they should.

Some traders can also exit too early leaving a lot of money on the table for what would of been a bigger winning trade, although it is a different timing issue that should be based on the charts this strategy is helpful here as well.

I like to be early so this strategy works for my plan going in, getting out, and reversing at or about the same time to capture most of the tradable swings moves. "

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=121859

[xe2dy]

H Map +

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm5/tropicalatlanticsatellite_large_animated.html

NOAA map

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=12903310

Historical patterns

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7845030

Thanks to FA and QT for sharing links.

[xe2dy]

[xe2dy]

http://market-ticker.org/

http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=133944

[anon.10]

xe2dy, are you e/ anon need talk if so.

[xe2dy]

Fearless Forecast by arbman at TT

"So far, I wrote it was going to be OK until thanksgiving back here... Now it has changed for the reminder of this 16-17 wk cycle due to the larger 64-68 wk cycle pressing down. There are 4 x 16-17 wk cycle within 64-68wks. Most of my analysis is based on the 64wks since this is where the most issues are trading.

The first 16-17 wk cycle lasted from March until June, the second one from July through October, this last one since November topped within the early cycle. There will be a low in about 6-10wks and then a bounce and another low 16-17wk thereafter. We may still roll over slowly, but I think the upside is very limited.

This is bearish obviously, but nothing too inordinate. The cycle went up about 2/3 of the time or so (64 x 2/3 = 40 wks since March bottom). It should be still a pretty good achievement given we are coming out of a 24 month downtrend. It will now correct down for 20-24 wks or so --4-5 months. As I said, we may still see a slow roll over for the next 2 weeks, or until the middle of December. A small rally from here does not change the facts, we may not see new highs anyway...

So, the middle of May where you should see the next low for the strong upside, NOT HERE. There will be a bunch of trading ranges and downside risk for the next several months and then a consolidation period before the final lows from February until late April or early May...

I am out and Best of luck."

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=113846

[xe2dy]

Spielchkr's Bottom Spotter

[anon.10]

We did get close to the 50 ma on the dow which is where i thought we would go back to.

[anon.10]

I usually just follow Swenlin's advise. I think he is best.

[anon.10]

glad I didn't follow.

[xe2dy]

Hi anon.10, tuffy88 has posted an exit of SPY and now into SHY using the IBD system.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=112520

[xe2dy]

Econ #'s + Futures

http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/calendars/economic.asp?x=0&siteid=mktw

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/economy/economic_calendar.asp?siteid=mktw

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

________________________________________________________________

Futures (2) + World Indices + Commodity Futures

Futures

http://www.cme.com/dta/del/globex.html

http://money.cnn.com/markets/afterhours/

--------------------------------------------------------------

World Indices ~ updates every 60sec.
Watch the dates! top click for US Market just above Japan

http://www.wwfn.com/commentary/oscharts.html

http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/Asian_Stock_Markets/asian_stock_markets.html

World heat map

http://www.financemaps.com/map/day

--------------------------------------------------------------

Commodity Futures

http://sites.barchart.com/pl/pearce/default.asp?code=XPEARCE§ion=energi

[anon.10]

Xe2dy:

I did realize that you were 2 different people. I just thought you had same style has Tuffy. My mistake. Sorry

[xe2dy]

Hello anon.10 There is a misunderstanding since tuffy88 and xe2dy are two different people. I make it a habit to read this board http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showforum=2 and that is where I met tuffy88 several years ago. To answer your question I swing trade at the moment.

Here are links to a few of the other boards I read:

http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www
http://market-ticker.org/

http://www.zerohedge.com/

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

[anon.10]

xe2dy:

You have a good trading style. I have a similar one. I have a main account of 80% which is invested at all times with 46% stocks (now) 4% Cash, and 50% bonds. I also have a trading account where I trade mostly one stock of 20% of my portfolio.

I am still underwater in may main portfolio and have not done quite as well as you. But I hope by the end of the year, I will be up another 10% in main account.

Thank you for your post. Do you swing trade in your trading account or day-trade?

[xe2dy]

$XAU th'ks to wxman at TT

[xe2dy]

GDL/DZZ

[xe2dy]

Trading style of tuffy88

Still look in on Traders-Talk most days, at least once, Toni. To answer your question the above quote from my post on August 24th should answer it. I re-entered my position in SPY's in trading account on that date with a 1/3rd position. 2nd third after a 2% advance and 3rd third after next 2% advance. Remain 100% invested in trading account since then. Our main retirement portfolio is now 71% in Vanguard Index Funds (50-50 stock-bonds) 29% in the trading account. When I started the trading account in April, 2003 it was 20% in trading account and 80% in main portfolio. The trading account has outperformed the main account by that much since 2003. And the main index portfolio has been no slouch. It was down 22% at the close of business on 12/31/08. I did no trading at all in that index portfolio except to re balance at the end of 2007 & 2008. That is down from its closing high on October 9,2007 until December 31,2008. The top of the bull market. As of last Friday it was up 19.22% YTD. Getting close to break even since top of bull market. The profits in the trading portfolio make the combined portfolio's well into all time highs.

The reason I don't post much here anymore is that there is really not much for me to say regarding my method of trading.
(1) be invested when the markets are going up.
(a) Never call tops or bottom. Just stay invested when the market is in a confirmed uptrend. Exit only after it goes into a downtrend. NEVER try to predict when that will happen. The market will tell you.
(2) be in short term bond funds (SHY) when the market is in a downtrend.
(a) Never predict a bottom. Just stay in SHY when the market is in a confirmed downtrend. Re-enter only AFTER it goes into a confirmed uptrend. NEVER predict a bottom. Market will tell you.

(3) Repeat.
(4) That is all there is to my style of trading.

Pretty simple. As one poster here posted a few weeks ago The system is "not nearly good enough to get a job on the street." Those street pro's must have made a lot of money in the bear market. So it is a good thing I don't want a job on the street.

Will post when I exit in trading account.

Charles

[xe2dy]

Trading ideas th'ks to diogenes227


Do not waste your money. Not a single dime. No one needs an INTRADAY stock screener. That's like firing a shotgun every day and trying to buy the single shot out of ten thousand that goes the farthest. Ridiculous. And impossible to do.

As a novice, you should first read this (several times, and take special note of item four):

5 SIMPLE THINGS ALL WEALTHY TRADERS DO (CLICK REPLY BUTTON)

Now pick the one thing (ETF, future, stock) you want to trade -- the ONE THING! You can make plenty of money playing the swings on one stock. On one ETF. In swing trading, it's the swing that matters, not the vehicle. Swing traders make money on anything they choose to trade once they have the persistence, the discipline and the experience to trade it well.

There are only four things that can happen on a swing trade (any trade for that matter) -- you have a little winner, you have a little loser, you have a big winner, you have a big loser. You can do nothing about the little winners and little losers (that's the market), but you have to be able to eliminate the big loser or you will not be able to play this game for long, and if you can't play you can't get the big winners.

Once you have your vehicle, you need to study it, study it, study it until to you can eliminate the big loser every time. That means you study price movements, stops, time frames, volume, technical indicators (this is not investing), whatever it takes to get rid of the big loser. Once you've done that, you can think about profits. You need a swing system. There is no intraday stock scanner that can help you with this; in fact, it's more likely it'll have you jumping around grabbing one big loser after another.

If I may offer a couple of shortcuts. As you can tell from this thread I believe the market move matters the most. You don't need a intraday shotgun if you pay attention to what the market is doing. Most stocks (not all, most) move with the market, up and down. I use the McClellan Summation indexes on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq to tell me what the general market is doing. I suggest you pick a stock and play it in the direction of the general market.

For instance what happened fundamentally with Google in that month from early June to early July that took it from 447 to 395? Probably not much fundamentally -- it was just a month. But the market slipped some and the NYSI declined sharply. When the NYSI turned up GOOG shot right back up to 464, and now has gone to 497 on this latest NYSI swing. Or -- holy cow! -- look at LVS! LVS went from 2 to 12, back to 6 and now to 20 since the March market bottom, all in lockstep with the NYSI. On a NYSI time frame, that is swing trading.

Forget the intraday stock scanner and find yourself a single GOOG, or a single LVS or a GDX or a IWM, or a soybean future (if you must), whatever, and study, study, study it until you can trade it well and then trade it. Hope this helps.

Good luck to you, and good trading. smile.gif

P.S. Thanks for the question. It's helped me refresh my thinking on what exactly I try to do consistently -- which is, "simplify, simplify, simplify."

[xe2dy]

5 Simple Things All Wealthy Traders Do To Gain An Edge
September 16, 2009 · By Brad · Filed Under Guest Bloggers

At one point I considered myself the luckiest person in the trading world because I was surrounded by trading experts, and had instant access to almost anyone. I lost that title after I met Tim Bourquin, Co-Founder of TraderInterviews.com. See Tim has the platform to basically ask ANY question he wants to ANY trader he wants…and he records it for his future use. Thankfully he opened his records for people like you and I to learn from and in this article he teaches us 5 things that he’s learned from the hundreds of experts he’s interviewed. Enjoy the article, comment below, and take time to visit TraderInterviews.com.

====================================================================

Over the past year I’ve spoken to hundreds of traders, many of which were recorded and posted at TraderInterviews.com. If you had asked me a few years ago how the best traders approached the markets, I would have said that they all had similar strategies. But after talking with traders of every market imaginable, I’ve found they all have very different methods.

However, while they each may use wildly different techniques (I spoke with one very wealthy trader who confirmed his chart patterns by looking at planetary movement and moon phases), all of them follow five rules without exception. Some of them make hundreds of thousands – even millions – of dollars each trading their own account. These aren’t your typical “always use a hard stop loss” type of rules . These are actual guidelines successful traders follow religiously.

In fact, I’d bet that deep down you know you should be following these rules as well but you aren’t – yet. Today is the day you can commit to doing what works for other wealthy traders and get on that same path.

Let’s get started.

1. They plan every single trade. EVERY SINGLE ONE.
Every trader I’ve talked with that makes money consistently knows the following about every single trade they take before they even begin entering a limit order into their trading platform:

a) the highest price they are willing to pay (if they are going long) or the lowest price at which they are willing to sell (if they are going short)
b) their profit target where they will exit if they are “right”
c) their stop loss where they will exit if they are “wrong”
d) the risk/reward ratio of the trade
e) the exact percentage of their account they are risking

Lots of traders do one or two of these things. Few do all of them. In simple terms they know exactly what they want to pay, how much money they anticipate making (or losing) and a very clear idea on the probability of the trade working out.

Although you might think that every great trader uses hard stops that are pre-programmed in, many don’t . However, they are highly disciplined and when their stop loss number comes up they are out. Most traders don’t have that type of hard-core discipline and so a hard stop loss is still their best option.

2. They stopped trying to pick tops and bottoms years ago
Nearly all of the classes, courses and webinars you’ll find on the Internet talk about using support and resistance of some type to find where a market is turning and how to get in before or while it does.

The funny thing is that only a very few successful traders I have ever talked to trade that way. Simply put, 95% of the traders out there that make money are buying higher highs and selling lower lows. They do the exact opposite of nearly everyone out there because they found out long ago that picking tops and bottoms is a sucker’s bet. One trader described it to me by saying that it’s much easier to just participate in what a market is already doing than trying to guess when that behavior will change. Flip-flop your strategy to agree with what the market is doing rather than guessing on when it will change its mind, and you’ll be in a much better position to make money trading.

3. They are patient with winners – and ridiculously impatient with losers.
Dennis Gartman is famous for boiling down great trading to one thing: “Do more of what is working and less of what isn’t.” Sure makes a lot of sense to me.

Most traders have a great deal of patience with their losers but get nervous about locking in gains and sell them to quickly – the exact opposite of what wealthy traders do. Wealthy traders realize that they may actually have more losing trades than winning trades so they quickly get out when they are wrong. It is the only way to ensure that they can give their winners the attention they deserve.

They coddle their winners and kick their losers to the curb without a second thought.

4. They trade one market. ONE
I’ve talked with great traders who can trade futures, forex and stocks at the same time. They are a gifted tiny minority.

The vast majority of successful traders concentrate on one market and become so comfortable with it that they begin to “know” the behavior of that market just watching price and volume. Test yourself – if you aren’t able to get rid of all your charts and simply look at price and volume to trade, you’re probably not concentrating enough on one market in order to know it’s moods. What we’re really talking about here, of course, is not the mood of the market itself but the moods of the market participants!

Focus on trading one market exceptionally well rather than try to trade whatever’s hot – that’s how wealthy traders do it.

5. Their benchmark for success is anything but money
Money changes everything. It sure does. We’re all in this to make money. The trouble is, when traders use the amount of money they make to judge their own success, something happens to them – to all of us, really – that clouds our decision-making ability.

Wealthy traders have realized this and instead focus on other things to determine if they’ve had a successful day. Whether it be how well they were able to execute on their trading plan (see rule #1), or their overall ability to predict short-term movements in the whatever they are trading, they know that if they do those things correctly, the money will follow.

Yes of course the money is important. Any trader who says otherwise is a fool. Why else would we put ourselves through this daily ride. But there is something about making it a secondary focus that allows the best traders to make better decisions. The growing trading account simply becomes a nice result – a side benefit if you will – of making good decisions and reading the market well.

Tim Bourquin
Co-Founder of TraderInterviews.com

http://club.ino.com/trading/2009/09/5-simple-things-all-wealthy-traders-do-to-gain-an-edge/

[xe2dy]

Long term ...

Chart style th'ks to selecto and mss @ TT

[xe2dy]

Gold chart th'ks to johngorge at TT

[xe2dy]

Gold / Silver info thks to 4Godnwv $ chichi2

Link to COT

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=39098261