Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3X (RUSS)

[BajaWizard]

Thanks.

Preoccupied with couple other plays today so missed the volume here. Is this the volume spike you spoke of? Still learning to spot chart indicators.

[ospreyeye]

$RUSS Chart - after turning the 50 DMA @ 30.22 into support $RUSS is testing 100 DMA @ 37.74 resistance - the last close above the 100 day simple moving average was back in the 1st week of Feb. - a close above the 100 DMA sets up a March resistance level test - the 200 DMA @ 59.64 is the next SMA(simple moving average) resistance level on this chart after the 100 DMA(day moving average) -

[BajaWizard]

Thanks for quick response.
Don't have private email option here.

Sent out half dozen or more emails this morning and no other glitches.

Will retry.
Cheers

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

Yes. Keep trying. Check the issues with your e-mail for settings, etc, as possible issue you are having. I'm around privately and all is well. I've been more quiet lately, but all is functioning fine

[BajaWizard]

Are you still around?
Emails to the address in your profile are 'Undeliverable'?

[sweet crude]

Ukraine ceasefire collapsing

Russia on verge of invadion according to Ukraine's PM

[sweet crude]

Lithuania says keep sanctions in place

...also OPEC expected to give no production cuts, Oil should drop dragging down ruble and RSX as well

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

A chance? Not a good chance RSX re-tests prior lows. I wouldn't count on that as an expected outcome related to RUSS.

[value1008]

Okay, it's a 4:1 reverse split... which means that RUSS is up in pre-mkt trading. (4X yesterday's closing price at 6.58 would only be $26.32, and pre-mkt RUSS is now in upper $27s--that's up over 5%.)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/direxion-split-19-etfs-including-163014316.html

[value1008]

Looks like that reverse split occurred for RUSS that Direxion had announced some weeks ago. Ha! i can't remember what the X factor was.

[jffb]

Any chance that RSX retests 2009 lows of low 10s? $RSX also broke daily RSI uptrend from December today.

[common_cents]

thank you for the update. I'm long at 6.10 but will add more here.

What a beating this has taken this year.....

CC

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

It appears RSX (& OGZPY) want to re -test RSI of 70+, so it seems likely imminent that 5's could occur soon on RUSS.
Looking for RSI of 70+ on RSX, then taking a solid look at trade here.
See what happens yet))

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

Seems set up for under 6 doesn't it?
Why I'm still cautious.

[jffb]

headed <6?

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

You're Welcome!
Keep in mind what I said is attentively data based. Nothing certain yet.
Still watching and analyzing this 'potential' trade.

[jffb]

Thanks for your insight! Slow Stochastic crossover today on RSX daily chart.

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

Not every day or month is the same with factors impacting it (as a top rule to know by experienced traders; that not all correlations & trades are exact every time for easy predictability).
But I say it will impact it more this time if they both (oil & nat gas) fall in tandem after recent run ups while RSX-Russia is over due for a correction while lingering in upper range for a while now.

[jffb]

It's too bad that Nat Gas only has an impact on RSX when Nat Gas is down. In mid-April when NG was trading at ~2.4 RUSS was setting new lows.

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

Gotta base this trade on Nat Gas impact, too.
Looking for Oil & Nat Gas (after recent Nat gas run up over extended) in combination to potentially be a commodity multi-factor for helping RUSS (with the ruble to weaken in correlation).
RUSS @ lowest recent @ 6.04 already hit into my range I've been hoping for & anticipating (5's-lower 6 area), although I'd prefer 5's, RUSS could be setting up for a run up in a few days if Oil & Nat Gas can pull back (with ruble to follow).

I'm still cautious as of today, but saying I'm watching those factors in coming days to help determine if RUSS finally has established a near bottom yet.
If I think oil & nat gas ready to correct lower in tandem, then I'll be bullish RUSS.

[jffb]

Is there any hope left for RUSS? WTI is down 1.5% and RUSS is only up <2%.

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

If that's true, then it would be turn around to support $Dollar against Ruble, helping RUSS.
But before today, ruble broke prior levels under 50(USD).

See what happens next.
Crude oil needs to pull back also but want to see a meaningful reversal on RUSS

[common_cents]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-14/ruble-slides-as-central-bank-starts-foreign-currency-purchases?cmpid=yhoo

[common_cents]

Russian government buying dollars according to Bloomberg business this morning. RUSS saw a capitulative reversal yesterday IMO. Up BIG in premarket already.

I appreciate your analysis you provided yesterday. Can you please comment based on what we're seeing here today?

TIA

CC

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

Yes, you're welcome on $RUSS help!!
Also note that you can follow me privately (see my profile) and get more info and trade strategy and receive earlier than any posts typically on what I'm trading.

[ArtieB]

Great analysis, TDT. Thank you. I sure appreciate it.

VC

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

Wow, so far 6.04 for low this morning on RUSS! It's aligning along with why I've been cautious here.
My downside potential estimate I've been waiting for (for past couple weeks) has been 5's to low 6 area. We already are clearly into that lower speculative area and just pennies from 5's.
Next question is... what's next? Hit 5's yet?
Shall see.
Eventually this stinker will bottom, but being very patient here & heeding caution has been necessary this time around.

Ruble broke key support area of 50 $USD.
And at new territory gaining on $USD hitting 48 today so far, something I've been continually expressing concern about in regards to RUSS projection & wanting to be cautious

[MJ moneymaker]

Sold PM cut small loss.

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

FYI--- In reply to you jffb... I was saying 'new high for oil' in referencing context to it gapping upward on May 12 after hours. It was also in reference to it trending toward break out higher more yet.
That's what the context for Oil moving up to highs I was talking about

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

Looking risky here yet with Crude Oil after hours hitting new highs & RUBLE gaining on $USD, breaking that critical 50 Ruble mark. The Ruble breaking below that 50 mark is even more critical now as that low 50 area has been in a tight range holding above support. But at this stage it is breaking below 50 and consequently breaking down which portends a likely risk for RSX to gap up yet to new highs, so not good for RUSS at this time.
Just be aware, as it is showing a high risk juncture here yet.

Going back as far as a couple weeks ago as I've posted about, the way things seem setting up, I might just get that 5 area I've been waiting for as a decent chance to occur yet.
But if it happens, it'll be a good cleansing for possible best entry scenario on RUSS.

[MJ moneymaker]

In at 6.30 for a flip

[jffb]

Ready to pop imo

[jffb]

Thoughts on RUSS today?

[common_cents]

you are right EXCEPT that the Russian market already has that priced in.....as it was the BEST performing market IN THE WORLD in Q1......you just can't keep propping up the market BS commnets as they are.....recession is looming there......

But what the heck do I know? I've been dead wrong here.

CC

[value1008]

The following remark is just my speculation but it seems that a number of investors in US markets, seeing what looks like a topping-out process the past few months, are looking around the world. Russia looks like a "good bet" for many of them, especially since Russia has already recovered and performed well since the crash of the ruble. I've seen all these articles about getting over the fear of investing in Russia, that Putin is a sly fellow who is angling to make things work, that the increasing ties with China will help Russia flourish (or at least "not wallow") despite sanctions from west, etc etc.

There's also the general feeling that oil will eventually recover (WTI up to $70 or higher, who knows where for Brent prices)....

Just saying that there's a lot of bullishness out there about investing in Russia, despite their credit-worthiness, stagflation concerns, etc.

[jffb]

The Russian markets were down yesterday, oil was down big, dollar was up, but usdrub was down so russ was down. Today micex is up but rtsi is down and usdrub is up and russ is again down, and earlier today when oil and dollar were both down russ was still down. It seems that every parameter that rsx follows must be down for russ to move up...

[value1008]

There are a lot of parameters with this one-- it's not like playing just the price of WTI oil with DWTI/UWTI.

Unless one is reading the Russian financial headlines, one has no idea what kind of agency statistic or bullish/bearish remark by a major Russian figure might be weighing even more heavily on their markets than the price of oil or ruble on any given day.

[common_cents]

how on earth is this possible? This makes ZERO sense.

[jffb]

Ruble down but RED again?!

[CBeeson]

Was wondering thesame

[jffb]

oil down big, micex down 1.5%, rtsi down, dollar up and yet the ruble is up...why?

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

Yes, the 'stars may be aligning' for RUSS in near future.

[jffb]

usdrub at 50.6 channel breakout at 51.7. The Victory Day parade is also this Saturday. There has been a steady increase in fighting the last couple weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if war breaks out next week.

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

That would be necessary for RUSS.
In the mean time earlier it 'low 6 area".
But since then, things seem to be shaping up for RUSS after Crude Oil report today

[jffb]

crude was significantly overbought, doubled position before eia report. Expecting crude to correct to 58 possibly 54 in next 1-2 weeks and usdrub to breakout of channel .

[ArtieB]

Yeah. Definitely should have sold last night. Damn.

VC

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

I wouldn't be patting anyone on the back just yet, especially anyone daring to hold over night. Way too early for that.
I continue to see downside risk here. Crude oil a major factor this time again.

[jffb]

Nice call!

[ArtieB]

Let it run...

VC

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

This is what I've been waiting for as possible.
But I don;t think is a buy quite yet at 6.40's.
Needs more selling to "cleanse it" & really make it oversold as I've been saying for a while now.
I'm looking toward low 6.00, maybe 5's yet on RUSS.
Been cautioning on side of error for good reason lately on sidelines.