Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3X (RUSS)

[ArtieB]

Done!

VC

[jffb]

Gap Filled! Buy!

[value1008]

News blurb from S.Alpha this a.m.:

Russia ratifies BRICS reserve fund • 3:28 AM
Yoel Minkoff, SA News Editor

Russian President Vladimir Putin ratified an accord Saturday to set up a $100B reserve fund for the so-called BRICS nations, aimed at reshaping the Western-dominated international financial system centered around the IMF and World Bank.
China is poised to provide the largest share of $41B to the pool, while Russia, Brazil and India will provide $18B each. South Africa is set to chip in the remaining $5B.
Previously: BRICS launches bank to offset Western-dominated financial system (Jul. 16 2014)

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

I never actually said to buy RUSS or said I specifically was bullish.
I was earlier lamenting on the conditions of the stock trading that it might be poised for good later (based on prior data last week).
I'm still undecided overall here, although can't help but feel somewhat favorable for odds on it to improve if RSX keeps slowing down, which is what i also was pointing out earlier last week here in prior post.
But I can see how what I said could be confused for bullish statement.
I was speaking in terms of favorable conditions for RUSS set up.

RUSS is at a point where anything is possible (50/50) in near term.
It would not surprise me if it sees new lows soon, but here given current circumstance it is mostly just guessing.
I prefer to error on side of caution yet.
Looking to see if sell off type 'cleansing' to new lows occurs--- as I've said in recent past.
At that point (low 6 area or 5's?) I'd feel more confident about this being very oversold and over due for a trend reversal

[jffb]

THREE-DAY-TRADER, are you still bullish?

[jffb]

manipulated. oil down, usdrub up, russ down

[value1008]

As one often finds, there are a couple of interesting articles about Russia vis-a-vis investing, at S.Alpha that posted yesterday (saw them today in my S.Alpha headline email feed-- you can be alerted to such articles by subscribing to the free daily headlines for the "Global Investing" category; alternatively, you can likely get a number of the headlines by signing up for alerts on articles/news about RSX, RUSL, RUSS):

Russia Continues To Deteriorate, by Hale Stewart

The End Of Russian Sanctions May Be In Sight: An August Rally In Russian Stocks? by Steven Halliwell

[jffb]

THank-you for your insight

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

Looks like RSX hitting serious resistance.
I think it looks like it is ready to go below 200 DMA - 19.30 area.
Makes sense to me that 18.00 or less is due for RSX on a minimum pull back.

Looking good this morning for potential RUSS move up from low 7 area (back to 8-9.
Seems almost calm before the potential stormy move up.

Crude oil seems toppy since near 60, and if it pulls back, then supports RUSS.
Ruble vs USD looks to be holding support after many bounces near 50+ critical area, so that also looks goof for RUSS potential to move up.

http://www.advfn.com/stock-market/FX/USDRUB/chart

[jffb]

RSX needs to stay below 200 dma

[jffb]

Is the cut in interest rates by 1.5% good for RUSS?

[wz9ytp]

For what it's worth:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-30/russia-central-bank-cuts-key-rate-150-bps-1250-citing-risk-considerable-economy-cool

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

Yep... When ever I'm posting about or suggesting anywhere about being on sidelines with caution (especially for fear to downside), I automatically revert to intra-day trading these 3x funds. I sometimes post about it, but 'intra-day trading' is presumed the only strategy for me during uncertain phases of a 3x fund, whenever I don't want to hold right now past a day or so (such as RUSS & JDST).

When ever one is uncertain of trend, simply intra-day trade flip these 3x funds for a few % scalps is always the basic any time strategy to apply.

[CBeeson]

Rsx bounced off 200ma again, oil big factor as well.
Nice swings between 7 - 7.4 though if someone was to play this channel

[jffb]

money flow index for russ has been increasing. Is this significant?

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

If Crude Oil continues to soar (even after Fed meets today), then RUSS will likely be at new lows soon afterwards.
After watching latest up tick early on and then huge drop as oil moved up, I am certainly still glad I'm sticking to sidelines on this one, along with anything else that shorts a commodity that is $USD sensitive (including staying on sidelines for JDST).
Oil & Gold certainly look near term poised for much higher yet.

Anyone daring to be long RUSS, better not buy above lower 7.20 area, and should keep a tight stop-loss neat 7.00 or upper 6.90 area.
But with such uncertainty, I'm still preferring to be on sidelines.
I have other stock picks & trades going on now anyhow while I wait out RUSS or JDST.

[jffb]

higher lows

[ArtieB]

I was responding to the wrong board, sorry. BUT, my stop was hit here as well, lol!

VC

[ArtieB]

My stop was hit yesterday. I might consider low 1's, but I think this is over-priced considering the presentation and the launch of the pre-order. Perception matters and is showing up in the pps.

VC

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

Looking better this morning so far.
Although too early to say. A guy could reasonably load here in low 7's, but keep a fairly tight stop-loss.

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

My view is the movement is'uncertain'. It is not as simple as Buy/Sell (black/white). It is at a grey area for determination of where it it is going.
For me, erroring on side of caution is waiting to see what happens, and see if a downside opportunity presents itself, and at that point a better less grey area signal will develop for me.
It is quite possible it breaks to upside, but that is not certain enough for me. I don't gamble like most people do in the market and at these boards, who will buy with such degree of uncertainty existing.
I'm ok if I miss the opportunity to upside, and prefer to wait for a more clear opportunity in my view for better certainty and a better signal.
I will move onto another stock(s) that I am more certain about, and come back to RUSS or any other stock or 3x fund that develops to a point of better certainty for me.
I don't trade like a desperate man. I wait and search for the best place to fish based on each daily individual circumstance.

[ArtieB]

Ok. And it it gaps up is that a bullish sign? I'm trying to figure out why folks see another dip lower here. Is it possible? Yes. Is it possible to gap up to $10 tomorrow and $30 the day after? Yes. Of course, I'm watching the underlying which, imo, is overbought.

VC

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

I personally don't view an intra-day move of 6.90's to 7.20 a reversal signal.
It is an intra-day move reversal --- YES, but at the moment nothing more, other than a potential head fake to lure people to buy it and chase it.
I'm not saying certainly it is not going to reverse, but today's action isn't enough evidence. Still holding up prior lows for support, but 3x funds can easily break down and surprise people to the downside.

I'm preferring other stocks right now and will error on side of caution here with RUSS for the time being. See if it gets another good gap down to new lows.

[jffb]

filled the gap at 6.98 and spiked. Green close?

[ArtieB]

RUSS reversing...

VC

[CBeeson]

Agreed it was close today, if it had a little more juice to break resistance (rsx 200ma) then it coulda been nice play

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

I'm not n RUSS yet. Haven't touched it since I was stopped out nearly 2 weeks ago.
I was tempted earlier this week.
If it breaks to new lows, however, I'll be interested for sure.
Which goes back to a post I made a few days ago... regarding that I think one more good leg down and sell off 'cleansing' would be good here for solid signal to get really long here again.
So far, targeting low 6's, maybe 5's for potential entry.


http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/edit_msg.aspx?message_id=113174310
Friday, 04/24/15
I'm still watching.
Would be nice to see a nice gap down hard one more time to new lows (possibly under 6), then I would call that a nice cleansing and consider it a buy signal after all these months of downtrend since approx. (January).
Such events I prefer on these market based 3x funds.
Otherwise I'm not so certain or decisive here on RUSS.

[ArtieB]

Watching RSX. I thought she stalled out at about 12:30, lol. Guess that was just the east coast lunch break. In the meantime, I'm nibbling RUSS.

VC

[jffb]

hit 6.98 what's next?

[ArtieB]

Ok. I think we're on the same page. Thanks.

VC

[jffb]

gap at 6.98

[ArtieB]

RUSS triple bottom/inverse Head and shoulders? $6.98ish?

VC

[ArtieB]

My stop was triggered. Tell me when and I'll shove back in...

VC

[jffb]

USDRUB down DXY down backtest almost complete

[ArtieB]

cup and handle failed and trend failed

VC

[ArtieB]

Absolutely agree. Higher highs and higher lows on the 3 day chart, but this needs to giddy-up ASAP!

VC

[CBeeson]

Rsx still above 200ma, if that breaks i agree this will run, but if it holds rsx has support rt here and russ will top. Critical day developing

[ArtieB]

Daily cup and handle still in play. We're in handle. $7.45 is the beginning of the breakout, imo.

VC

[jffb]

Why is this always down >3x on red days and up <3x on green days?

[jffb]

USDRUB could rise to 60 if the Russian Central Bank announces a minimum rate cut on Thursday.

[ArtieB]

Cup and handle on daily...

VC

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

Yes--- RUSS is showing good resilience today.

[jffb]

RUSS downtrend broke, RSX uptrend and rsi uptrend broke. Strong Buy

[wz9ytp]

Brian Ferro. Russia to lowere rates by 100 bp April 30:

https://twitter.com/FerroTV/status/592565390837972993

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

I'm still watching.
Would be nice to see a nice gap down hard one more time to new lows (possibly under 6), then I would call that a nice cleansing and consider it a buy signal after all these months of downtrend since approx.
Such events I prefer on these market based 3x funds.
Otherwise I'm not so certain or decisive here on RUSS.

[jffb]

I see a double top on the usdrub chart at 50 on 4/20 and 4/23

[value1008]

For that to happen, we need oil to come back down to low $50s and ruble to calm down by at least about 10%, and maybe Putin to do something crazy with Ukraine or elsewhere. Still, i think just a pullback by the ruble might get RUSS up to $8. Not a bad gain from here.... But first the ruble needs to top out (a double top on the recent month ruble/USD chart?) and RUSS would likely be a bit lower at that point before rising....

[jffb]

RUSS needs to break out of downtrend from January. If it does then could be headed to 14 otherwise lower

[value1008]

Interesting further color on the ruble:
http://rt.com/business/252769-ruble-too-strong-siluanov/

Ruble now ‘excessively’ strong - Russian Finance Minister
Published time: April 24, 2015 15:17
RIA Novosti / Ramil Sitdikov

The Russian ruble has strengthened to a point where it is actually too strong, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Friday during a lecture in St. Petersburg.

“What happened was expected: the volume of gold reserves stabilized, then the ruble started stabilizing and has now strengthened. We believe that it has strengthened excessively,” Siluanov said at a lecture in St Petersburg.

On Friday, the ruble gained 1.22 percent against the dollar, trading at 51.37 at 5:00pm in Moscow. After gaining a record 15 percent in the first three months of 2015, the ruble has begun to weaken, which the Central Bank sees as a good sign. The regulator is trying to reverse the gains the currency picked up this year. However, a stronger ruble could pose problems for exporters who benefit from a weaker currency. At stake is also Russia’s project of import substitution; as the ruble gets stronger customers have more purchasing power to buy foreign goods.

The rapid rise has been spurred by higher oil prices as well as more solid internal economic factors in Russia, such as demand for rubles to buy attractive Russian sovereign debt and the ceasefire in Ukraine. It is the world’s best performing currency of 2015 so far, according to Bloomberg.

In 2014, the currency lost 46 percent of its value, hitting an all-time low of 80 against the US dollar on December 16. The ruble nosedive was in tandem with oil prices, as well as panic that sanctions and low oil prices would negatively affect the Russian economy.

At the same lecture on Friday, the Finance Minister spoke on Russia’s strengthening economic relationship with China, including boosting trade as well as the joint project to develop a route to speed up trade, dubbed the new Silk Road.

Inflation for 2015 is forecast to be 12.2 percent, according to the Finance Ministry.

[THREE-DAY-TRADER]

RSX-Russia looks tired.
Maybe time for RUSS near 7.00?
(RUSS still holding support)


Goldman: The Dollar Rally Is Not Overat Barrons.com(Thu, Apr 23)

As Russian Reserves Tumble, Strong Ruble Questionedat Barrons.com(Thu, Apr 23)