yup. housing market is about to fall off a huge cliff. Starts down 2 months in a row...prices exploding everywhere (but not pay)
Its all down from here. Will it cause a financial crisis?
Update: I did some more digging, the long term history of the chart seems to be a result of multiple reverse splits. I am seeing a shares outstanding of only 2.5m. ( https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/etf/DRV ).
Aside from the every-so-often spikes, will this just continually keep going down? Looking at the chart, it looks like in 2008 it spiked extremely high and has been going down since. Will that keep happening until there is another recession/depression/housing market bubble pop? Thank you for any info you could provide.
Took my Feb Profits. Holding my May Calls because I do not see any language about pushing out Forbearance. Looking at Aug Calls but man they are pricey. The $21.00 at $1.25 bid looks good but ask is $1.50 to pricey for me at the moment to take the risk when I have May so Cheap and green.
Rocky day today! All expected. Market wants stimulus so bad! Crazy!
I bought some UAL Puts today for Jan of 2022
They were dirt cheap and I want to see what their Quarterly report in a few weeks.
Have a good night!
Not rocky at all :)
Looks like we turned Chickenshit into chickensalad today
Here you go. A great article..the market is gonna start speculating on what next and pricing stuff in
Worth a read
Bullish move on DRV after opening 5% down.
You can feel a Christmas Crash coming. It just doesn’t seem right that Markets are at extreme levels. Housing Market at Record Prices
Yet Millions clamoring for stimulus AND Home Forbearance. Shopping mall store Signs popping up everywhere for Lease
And long lines for Food.
The Round Peg has been bashed into the square hole and about to pop back out.
Expect a rocky day! Probably back low 10’s or mid 10’s. Vaccine and stimulus pump machine has been on all night even though Germany headed for a full lock down and More Closures in the US.
They cannot kick the can down the road forever.
I don’t see how extending the cdc Moratorium helps people besides makes things much worse 6
Months later. At some point sell your home. The Market is amazing. Why just let the bills keep piling up. This is what you get in a democracy right?
Between 2.4 million and 5 million American households are at risk of eviction in January alone, and millions more will be vulnerable in the months after, according to estimates from Stout Risius Ross.
Thats assuming people dont start dieing en masse or have reactions. That would be a horrible sell off if the vaccine were suddenly halted
Absolutely...Put that on the 2021 detonation pile aswell with all the others
I also think this Vaccine is going to be a major sell on news. Hearing more and more people are scared to take it.
Yeah calls are cheap right now. Now is the time if yiu lose the premium so be it. Chances of this being below $30 this time in may are not really all that good. Way to much on the plate about to go down the pipe..moratoriums..evictions..the sober realization the economy is wrecked..an obvoius rate hike in the middle of the night.
What surprised me was how cheap May Calls were from $18-30
That is where I have been buying. They have been filling me below the ask and Friday my cost average hit below the bid for the first time on my 18-20’s. . The Ask was out of reach now. I won’t add. I like my spot.
Ha! That would be fine by me! Lol.
Yeah time will tell. Friday was a taste of how fast this can move up and down. Imagine like you said a sustained runoff a few weeks or months!
try to keep it a secret lmao...volume is very low thank god. Wants traders get a whiff and see market conditions its gonna explode
Im trying really hard not to blast this until the first week of january. I suggest you live accordingly :P
Maybe Me and you gonna have a yacht meet someday
but We got a good little sleeper stock here. When things happen it will be quick on the upside (I dont see more than a 10% downside here given the movement we have had all year)
the price action will continue to be +/-5% from where it is today until probably...ehh...the last week of December and decisions start being made at the governmental levels about what to do with all these people behind on Rent and Mortgage.
Do they continue moratoriums in light of the pandemic or let it all happen. One thing I know for sure the Fed has already told congress its their problem, the Fed is not looking to take any of this on like what they did in 2009 with distressed homeowners.
It will be up to congress and I will say the biggest indicator will be Georgia Run off. If Republicans hang on to a senate seat and keep the senate their will be no more moratoriums. That maybe a catalyst for this ETF
Oh it did back in march out of fear alone (not the actual event..just fear of it)
Imagine pricing in it actually happening.
Forget the moon, this is leaving the milky way
Today could be a true test of how Volatile DRV could be. Would be nice to see a pop to $12.00+ like you said this did hit $40.00 and even $60.00 in the grimmest of fear.
I don’t want to be greedy LOL
This went up $42 is 10 days in march i think your price target is a little low if these moratoriums expire
I agree. I own Feb and May Calls and Calls in the 2x April SRS.
VERY little Decay and can move extremely quick and I feel $10ish was the bottom as well considering how strong the Stock Market has been. Weakness is starting to show itself and in all the Stimulus talks back and forth the only Forbearance that has come up is College Debt that is it. No Mortgage relief so I really do not see it coming up now in the 12 hour.
I would like to see $13.00 before Feb and $20.00+ spike before May.
We will see..your idea is great but lets be honest a market only works if there are buyers. You put millions of houses on the market suddenly the equity turns into an empty bag in less than a week
..I know one thing i will be starting to nibble positions in this starting after some options expire for me on the 18th.
I like this ETF, the decay is extremely minimal and it isnt like FAZ and this is a lottery ticket if that crash does happen after the new year.
I consider the current price channel ($10-13) probably the bottom even if things continue to hobble along
I understand but a lot of that is Rentals.
Think about the amount of people not getting paid that may just rent their own second home or apartment owners who are not getting paid. This also all adds up. It’s not just the big banks. I do not see anyway around it but to just naturally let itself work itself out. To keep piling up more and more debt is not the way to fix this either.
Thats an interesting angle but like i said this could break the back of the country. 20 million vs 3.3 million.
Look how 2008 ruined the real estate industry and now imagine that ×5 and you may literally get revolution in the streets.
Thats roughly 1/10 of every american evicted concentrayed mainly in coastal states like california and new New Jersey
Here is what I just do not get. So you have the housing Market at record levels in terms of buyers pushing the price up and yet you have records amount of people in Forbearance being protecting from foreclosures etc... I know lots of that is apartments and condo rentals as well.
But with a record housing Market why keep protecting people until it’s too late and the Market declines. Why not force them too sell their homes for a profit. A tiny % of Forbearance areas are declining and underwater at the moment but not nearly as much as many of these home values are well above their buyers original price. So this is why I think Forbearance won’t be extended. It just does not make sense too extend it.
Need and probably will get a crash of some sort
Ill wait a few weeks and evaluate signals from local governments on the issue
At some point they have to let things expire.
Added more May Calls
I totally agree. 20 million facing foreclosure vs 4 million in 2008.
But this sort of crisis could literally break the back of the nation forever. What makes you think they will let moratoriums expire
Added May $19.00 Calls today. DRV