Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3x (DRV)

[Talc Moan]

Lower then pre pandemic. Last Reverse was in 2019. Interesting opportunity maybe to go long on some Calls. Watching for now.

[dealerschool2006]

bot some DRV today...time for a small correction...would like to see last Monday's gap up in the markets get filled sometime next week...

[tw0122]

https://www.alt-market.com/index.php/msm/4316-mortgage-delinquencies-at-record-high-cares-act-used-as-rationale

[tw0122]

A Yelp study finds that 55% of business closures are closed for good. Real estate Armageddon collapse in the works.

[tw0122]

Meanwhile in the incorruptible reality of the real estate market buyers now have the largest choice of homes for sale since the Housing Bust nearly a decade ago. And there is no need to engage in bidding wars or other foolishness. Plenty of supply and a big shortage of buyers.

[tw0122]

Out of the day trade. Corrupted Powell markets not going to allow for much more upside

[tw0122]

Blackrock now the Fed’s pet project to buy stocks to lift the fake stock markets as needed.


(Source: Federal Reserve's website)

You can see that according to the Exhibit B, this is the power of attorney language for BlackRock to “manage, supervise, and direct the investments” for the Fed’s account. Clearly, the language in Exhibit B says, “transact in any and all stocks, bonds, cash held for investment and other assets.”

Of course Jerome Powell himself has a big tie with BlackRock

[tw0122]

Start nibbling some morethe real estate market slowly but surely going through a rippling disaster longer term. Not sure how much stimulus they could offer to keep people paying rent.

The cons of course the Fed has BlackRock keep REIT etfs up by buying them in our fake controlled markets.

[tw0122]

"Demand will remain low as new hires, interns and students begin jobs and school remotely, and as many New Yorkers escape the city temporarily or permanently," said StreetEasy economist Nancy Wu. "As inventory piles up due to this lack in demand, even more landlords will need to make rent cuts, and rents will likely drop even further."

The second quarter of 2020 marked the first time since the Great Recession that there was a year-over-year rent price drop in the metro.

[tw0122]

More than one-third of New York rentals were discounted during the second quarter as demand continues to slump thanks to the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic - including the flood of workers telecommuting instead of vying for limited rental space downtown.
According to Fox Business, rent prices were discounted an average of 6.7% ($221 per month) across 34.7% of New York properties in Q2 - with rents at higher-end apartments experiencing the highest cuts "as wealthy buyers have flocked to the suburbs since March."

[tw0122]

Start dabbling here as 32% of U.S. households missed their July housing payments. As the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continues, almost one-third of U.S. households, 32%, have not made their full housing payments for July yet, according to a survey by Apartment List, an online rental platform

[birdys3333]

Well, I did not see that, meant , it on the year high, but I lied, I buy and sell the percentage,so today I will simply buy the percentage down, 5 percent down, buy 5 shares, up 5 percent sell 5 shares, going to let the percentage guide the way,

[0210]

...All time highs...

WoW >>> $16.33 now vs. $31,450 07/06/2009 = 1,934x = +193,319% ROI.

Or, 52-week high $58.01 or $71.04 on 03/20/2020(?)

When? 2020...2021(?)

[birdys3333]

I don't get it, why not, everyone says that,,but I treat them just like a stock, but I don't hold those to long, but really do believe , most of these short etf have been trading in a bull market, all I will say, if you have been surfing with a short board here, I would break out something like these, because the sea that you say goes back and forth, will soon look like this

[tw0122]

Don't recommend holding 3x funds more then a few days. Usually same day trade or overnight trade 90% less risk. Cut your losses. They go back and forth to much

[birdys3333]

Nice, I keep adding, do start selling when I get over my average pps, but saving the bulk, for when this goes past All time highs,,,

[tw0122]

Out of DRV in the high $13s here will be looking for another DRN entry point.

[tw0122]

Low $13 entry for a a quick flip. Could have stayed in DRN longer yesterday but money made. The economy is great again and a big Trump infrastructure program so it is obvious DRN more in play for future

[tw0122]

Looking for some $14s for another day trade

[tw0122]

Again

[tw0122]

Time to exit this morning DRN trade as the world is a great place again
Start nibbling on some DRV when DRN goes crazy aTkagnk

[tw0122]

Out of DRV early on from Friday entry because by tomorrow the Economy will be great again. Time to watch and perhaps nibble on DRN

[birdys3333]

I really like this short, anyone can make money when market goes up, well most of us, only a few can make money both directions,

[tw0122]

Nibble on that DRV this morning while DRN was taking first row seats on the show. Time to exit the DRV day trade with a small gain

[tw0122]

Out of DRV and time to nibble on DRN. Because the economy will soon be great again.

[tw0122]

Out of DRV for the daytrade

[tw0122]

Did you load your DRV yesterday.’Daytrade in place get out soon.

[tw0122]

Out of DRV at $13.84 range. Let’s see what the money printers have in store next week.

[tw0122]

Bought some DRV at $13.24. Looking for the day trade flip

[tw0122]

Time to exit now the DRV entry from yesterday at 3pm for another small day trade gain

[tw0122]

Tons and tons of vacant real estate bodes well for DRV when the time comes although the Fed has printed a temporary bandaid and just bailed out some billionaire hedge funds that were heavily invested in JC Penney, Hertz and Whiting Petroleum. Because the rich Fed must take care of its rich hedge fund pals. Big names among the retail bankruptcies in 2019 included Gymboree on January 16; Charlotte Russe on February 3; Things Remembered on February 6; Payless ShoeSource on February 18; Charming Charlie on July 11; Barneys New York on August 6; and Forever 21 on September 29.

Now, the retail shutdowns resulting from COVID-19 have simply accelerated what was already a growing trend of companies seeking relief from debts they cannot pay back. Some of the major bankruptcies this year mean permanent, not temporary, job losses.

The 118-year old J.C. Penney Co. had 846 stores when it filed for bankruptcy on May 15 of this year. It said it plans to permanently close 242 of those stores. On May 19, Pier 1 Imports, which filed for bankruptcy in February, said it plans to liquidate all of its remaining 540 stores.

Hundreds of store closings in malls spell escalating job losses and more pain in the commercial real estate market. According to Moody’s, shopping mall vacancies had already reached an historic high of 9.7 percent at the end of March. Distressed mall owners will, in turn, put stress on big Wall Street banks which will have to take more loan loss reserves on their exposure to commercial real estate. That, in turn, will mean that the big banks, which have an outsized presence in consumer and business lending, will start trimming credit card lines to consumers and credit lines to businesses. In fact, that process has already begun. That, in turn, will stunt consumer spending, which, unfortunately, represents two-thirds of U.S. GDP.

Another major shopping mall retailer, J. Crew, filed bankruptcy on May 4. It has been slowly closing stores since 2018. It currently operates 182 J. Crew retail stores, as well as 140 Madewell stores. Due to its debt burden, analysts say it could be forced to close as many as half of its stores.

Neiman Marcus, which filed for bankruptcy protection on May 7, had announced in March that it would close most of its off-price Last Call stores by early 2021. It has indicated it hopes to keep its 43 Neiman Marcus stores and two Bergdorf Goodman stores open.

Other big name retail bankruptcies this year include Modell’s Sporting Goods on March 11; True Religion on April 13; Roots USA April 29; Aldo May 7; Stage Stores (owner of Bealls, Palais Royal, Peebles, Stage and Goody’s) on May 11.

Just yesterday, discount retailer Tuesday Morning filed for bankruptcy protection with plans to permanently close about 230 of its 687 stores.

But retailers are not the only companies piled high with debt that are increasingly turning to bankruptcy protection. Telecommunications company, Frontier Communications Corp., filed for bankruptcy protection on April 15. It had $17.5 billion in debt.

With almost $19 billion of debt, the century-old Hertz rental car company filed for bankruptcy protection on Friday, May 22. In addition to Hertz, it operates Dollar and Thrifty car rentals. At the end of 2019, it had 38,000 workers. Earlier this year, it announced 10,000 layoffs. Hertz operates a fleet of 500,000 vehicles. It may begin selling off tens of thousands of those cars to raise cash, raising concerns that this could devastate prices in the used car market, potentially shuttering small used car businesses. A long-term problem for Hertz is that approximately two-thirds of its revenue stream comes from business at airports. The public is not expected to warm up to vacation airline travel anytime soon.

Bankruptcies this year in the energy sector are almost as severe as with retailers. One of the largest was Whiting Petroleum, which filed for bankruptcy protection on April 1. It has reported a net loss in four of the past five years. Diamond Offshore filed for bankruptcy on April 27, having also posted losses in four of the last five years, cumulatively totaling $1.2 billion in losses. At the end of last year, Diamond had almost $2 billion in long-term debt on its balance sheet with approximately $156 million in cash.

On April 15, shale driller Yuma Energy filed for bankruptcy protection, seeking court approval to auction off its assets.

Yesterday, S&P Global Market Intelligence reported that “the amount of defaulted U.S. leveraged loan debt over the past 12 months, at $37.4 billion, is 270% ahead of the figure one year ago, and is the highest since February 2010…” In February 2010, the U.S. was still in the midst of the overhang from the 2008 financial collapse on Wall Street, the worst crisis since the Great Depression.

[tw0122]

Getting ready for another DRV run. DRN has been a little to happy in this fake Fed Money Printing World

[Dragonfart]

Not looking good

[tw0122]

Have to go back and forth between DRV and DRN. The entire economy has become a money laundering operation. From the ‘unicorns’ of Silicon Valley where losses are rising exponentially, to fracking plays where losses mount every year for the past decade to the entire business model of private equity where companies are loaded up with massive piles of debt . . . who exactly is profiting from so many money losing enterprises...the billionaire and close friends of the money printing Fed.

[Dragonfart]

Another day of fake money pump

[tw0122]

The Chapter 11 filings that is about to flood the US will be nothing short of biblical.
Bankruptcy Tsunami Begins: Thousands Of Default Notices Are "Flying Out The Door"

All that was missing was a catalyst... and according to Bloomberg that catalyst arrived in the past week or so, as retail landlords have been sending out thousands of default notices to tenants, who in turn have experienced a collapse in foot traffic, sales and cash flow due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and are simply unable to pay their debt obligations.
According to Bloomberg, restaurants, department stores, apparel merchants and specialty chains have been receiving notices from landlords - some of whom have gone as long as three months without receiving rent.
"The default letters from landlords are flying out the door," said Andy Graiser, co-president of commercial real estate company, A&G Real Estate Partners. "It’s creating a real fear in the marketplace."
Pressure from default notices and follow-up actions like locking up stores or terminating leases was cited in the bankruptcies of Modell’s Sporting Goods and Stage Stores Inc. Many chains stopped paying rent after the pandemic shuttered most U.S. stores, gambling that they could hold on to some cash before landlords demanded payment.
The stakes are enormous, and landlords are suffering, too. An estimated $7.4 billion in rent for April hasn’t been paid, or about 45% of what’s owed, according to a recent analysis by CoStar Group, which also found that just a quarter of of expected rent payments have been received by landlords

[Dragonfart]

Reality vs. Fake market who will win?

[tw0122]

Time for DRN trade again. The world is great again

[Dragonfart]

I agree, well said. They can only print fake money for so long.

[tw0122]

Why Assets Will Crash

The increasing concentration of the ownership of wealth/assets in the top 10% has an under-appreciated consequence: when only the top 10% can afford to buy assets, that unleashes an almost karmic payback for their narrowing of ownership, a.k.a. soaring wealth and income inequality: assets crash.

Most of you are aware that the bottom 90% own very little other than their labor (tradeable only in full employment) and modest amounts of home equity that are highly vulnerable to a collapse of the housing bubble.

(The same can be said of China’s middle class, only more so, as 75% of China’s household wealth is in real estate, more than double the percentage of wealth held in housing in U.S. households.)

the top 10% own 84% of all stocks, over 90% of all business equity and over 80% of all non-home real estate. The concentration of ownership of assets such as vintage autos, collectibles, art, pleasure craft and second homes in the top 10% is likely even greater.

The more expensive the asset, the greater the concentration of ownership, as the top 5% own roughly 2/3 of all wealth, the top 1% own 40% and the top 0.1% own 20%.

In other words, the more costly the asset, the narrower the ownership. Total number of U.S. households is about 128 million, so the top 5% is around 6 million households and the top 1% is 1.2 million households.

This means the pool of potential buyers is relatively small, even if we include global wealth owners.

Since price is set on the margins, and assets like houses are illiquid, then we can anticipate all the markets for assets owned solely by the wealthy to go bidless — yachts, collectibles, vacation real estate — because the pool of buyers is small, and if that pool gets cautious due to a drop in net worth/unearned income, there won’t be any buyers except at the margins, at incredible discounts.

As we know, in a neighborhood of 100 homes currently valued at $1 million each, when a desperate seller accepts $500,000, the value of the other 99 homes immediately drops to $500,000.

Since few of the current bubble-era asset valuations are supported by actual income fundamentals, then the sales price boils down to a very small number of potential buyers and what they’re willing to pay.

Houses have a value based on rent, of course, but rents will drop very quickly for the same reason: prices are set on the margins. The most desperate landlords will drop rents and re-set the rental market from the margins.

If demand plummets (which it will as people can no longer afford rents in hot urban markets once they lose their jobs), then vacancies will soar and rents will crash as a few desperate landlords will take $1200/month instead of $2500/month.

Due to the multi-year building boom of multi-family buildings in hot job markets which inevitably leads to an oversupply once the boom ends, there are now hundreds of vacancies where there were once only a few dozen, and thousands where there were previously only hundreds.

As millions of wait staff, bartenders, etc. who made good money in tips find their jobs have vanished, all the urban hotspots will see mass out-migration: Seattle, Portland, the S.F. Bay Area, L.A., NYC, Denver, etc. as demand for rentals will evaporate and rents will be set on the margins by the most desperate landlords. Everyone holding out for the previous bubble-era rent will have $0 income as their units are vacant.

Tech start-ups and Unicorns are melting like ice cubes in Death Valley, and tech-sector layoffs are already in the tens of thousands. This wave of highly paid techies losing their jobs will become a tsunami, further reducing the pool of people who can afford rents of $2,500 to $3,000 for a studio or one-bedroom apartment.

The concentration of ownership generates a self-reinforcing feedback that further depresses prices: since the top 10% own most of the assets of the nation, they are most prone to a reversal of “the wealth effect.”

[tw0122]

Once assets start sliding in value, the reverse wealth effect quickly dries up demand for all asset classes with narrow ownership. Since these assets are illiquid — that is, the market for them is thin, with buyers few and far between–the prices are set by a very shallow pool of buyers and desperate sellers.

Consider a pleasure craft that retails new for $120,000. In the boom era of rising stocks and housing, a used boat might fetch $65,000. But as the wealth of the small pool of households able to buy and maintain a costly craft evaporates, the number of qualified buyers evaporates, too.

The seller might be aghast by an offer of $35,000 and reject it angrily. Six months later, he’s praying someone will take it off his hands for $15,000, and in another six months, he’ll accept $500 just to get out from underneath the insurance, slip-rental and licencing fees.

This is how it happens that boats that were once worth tens of thousands of dollars are set adrift by owners who can no longer afford to pay slip fees, and vacation homes are abandoned and auctioned off for overdue property taxes: the market for these luxuries dries up and blows away, i.e. goes bidless — there are no buyers at any price.

Once housing and real estate valuations fall, that will trigger a decline in the value of all other costly, narrowly owned assets, which will reinforce the reverse wealth effect.

This is the systemic payback for concentrating ownership of assets in the hands of the few: when their bubble-era priced assets plummet in value, the bottom falls out of all assets with narrow ownership.

The price of superfluous assets such as boats, vintage cars, collectibles, art and vacation homes can quickly fall to a fraction of bubble-era valuations, destroying much of what was always fictional capital.

The Federal Reserve reckons it can “save” the bubble-era valuations of junk bonds by being the “buyer of last resort,” but it will end up being the “only buyer,” effectively making the system even more fragile and prone to collapse.

The public will eventually have to decide if the nation’s central bank should be bailing out assets owned by the financial elite while the upper-middle class watches its assets collapse in value.

[tw0122]

As millions of wait staff, bartenders, etc. who made good money in tips find their jobs have vanished, all the urban hotspots will see mass out-migration: Seattle, Portland, the S.F. Bay Area, L.A., NYC, Denver, etc. as demand for rentals will evaporate and rents will be set on the margins by the most desperate landlords. Everyone holding out for the previous bubble-era rent will have $0 income as their units are vacant.

Tech start-ups and Unicorns are melting like ice cubes in Death Valley, and tech-sector layoffs are already in the tens of thousands. This wave of highly paid techies losing their jobs will become a tsunami, further reducing the pool of people who can afford rents of $2,500 to $3,000 for a studio or one-bedroom apartment.

The concentration of ownership generates a self-reinforcing feedback that further depresses prices: since the top 10% own most of the assets of the nation, they are most prone to a reversal of “the wealth effect.

[Homebrew]

What 2nd stimulus check?

[Dragonfart]

Getting interesting, especially with the 2nd stimulus check coming which we know its useless. Its a blackhole that cannot be filled.

[fitzwell11]

Drv looking sexy

$DRV

[FollowMyNIL]

No bull, 20 in 24 out

[tw0122]

This trade is not a long term trade. DRN has been the daytrade the last 2 days

[FollowMyNIL]

So either way for home owners we break even =)

[tw0122]

Up up and away as America’s overvalued real estate crumbles all courtesy of the Federal Reserve who bubbled up stocks and real estate for the 1% billionaires of America

[FollowMyNIL]

Exactly